Fantasy Football Metrics

New York Giants

2015 Preseason Week-2 Dynasty-Fantasy Recap: JAC-NYG (8/22/15)

Twitter @FFMetrics

tags — Fantasy Football, OBJ, Odell Beckham Jr., PPR, Blake Bortles, ADP, Jeremiah George, IDP, Nordly Cap Capi, dynasty rookie draft, Ryan Nassib, handcuff, Eli Manning

 

– Honestly, I’ve wanted to watch/study this game for one main reason, after looking at the box score results—to find out ‘what is up’ with Odell Beckham Jr. (0 rec. on 5 targets)? This makes two preseason games with a grand total of 6 targets and no catches. That’s a little disturbing.

What I am seeing is my greatest OBJ fears coming to life.

I must say, I don’t think it’s time for Beckham Jr. FF-owners to panic because this is the preseason, but you must know—there’s a small reason for alarm.

In this game, Jacksonville tried to wipe out Odell Beckham Jr. in every sense of the words ‘wipe out’. I fear this is the template for what’s to come for him…and that it could hold him back from going FF-nuts again in 2016.

Here’s what the Jags did to OBJ…

1) Much like the Rams did late last year–Safeties are on a mission to just end Beckham Jr.’s game early via a vicious hit…and if his career is ended, then so be it.

The good news is, Eli only has eyes for Beckham, so the targets are coming. The problem is, this preseason, all the targets are deep floaters from Eli trying to perfectly place the ball to OBJ on his sprint with a burned CB behind him…and at least one Safety over-the-top trying to time things to hit Beckham full speed upon receipt of the ball (and not settling for just knocking away the floating ball while in flight).

Beckham, for his part, is pretty much a jackass who is ‘asking for it’ (I’m a fan now, so I can say this). He’s making one-hand catches all pregame, with giant headphones on, as a large gathered crowd of adorers ‘ooh’ and ‘ahh’ from the stands—all this happening in warm ups!! On the field, he’s acting like a hybrid diva/WWE performer. He celebrates many catches like a fool. He pushes back at every DB who gets in his face. He is easily rattled, and doesn’t take any crap—he is ‘asking for it’. He is making himself a prime target.

He’s also, possibly, the best pure WR in the NFL. He can back all the arrogance up, but he won’t be able to do so if he’s carried off the field on a cart.

On his first few targets in this game (mostly all bombs away), he burned the CB, and the Safety came over and tried to take a shot at him—even late. On one of his last targets, the ball was way overthrown, so Beckham took it upon himself to keep sprinting and late hit the Safety in front of him who already slowed because the play was dead. It was obvious, and should have been a penalty. HE IS ASKING FOR IT.

He’s setting up a challenge to all DBs to make a name for themselves. At minimum, they know the jawing could get OBJ to ‘blow’, and get penalized or kicked out of the game…everyone knows he has a hair-trigger for his emotions.

2) Regardless of the punitive damages the Safeties are looking exact—the fact is: There are Safeties there.

Because OBJ is making himself a marked man on so many fronts—the defense is rolling to him on every play. They can’t help themselves.

Defensive Coordinators are 99% ex-players, who were raised on a ‘Gladiator’ mentality—and still live it. There’s a lot of ‘this is our house’ mindsets. I can only imagine the defensive meetings pre-Giants game…”I don’t care what happens, but that Odell Beckham Jr. kid is not beating us…not in OUR house” is probably spoken a thousand times. D-Cs will pride themselves, as well as the DBs, in holding Beckham Jr. to 3-4 catches for 30-50 yards and no TDs. In exchange for being ‘warriors’ on OBJ…the other Giants may roll up 400+ yards in receiving and score 30+ points…but, HEY…at least we held that loud mouth Beckham in check.

I’m not saying Beckham Jr. CAN be stopped. Every team tries with all their might to stop Lebron James, Michael Jordan, old school Calvin Johnson, etc. The Detroit Pistons developed special coverage rules for, as well as tried to hurt, Michael Jordan–to rattle him…to slow him down. Every NFL team is going to be the Detroit Pistons for Odell Beckham Jr.

Hopefully, Odell Beckham Jr. is a Michael Jordan among WRs.

He kinda is.

 

 — Blake Bortles (8-16 for 98 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) is not ‘the Michael Jordan of NFL QBs’. In fact, he shouldn’t even be a starting NFL QB. It’s embarrassing.

It is offensive to me, in the context of all the game video I watch every day from college to the pros 12 months a year, to watch Bortles as a QB. He is so bad…so ‘nothing’, I cannot believe Jacksonville does not see it—or is not in a total panic about it. Of course, they didn’t draft another QB late to groom. Why would they? An 8th-string Guard or 10th WR on the depth chart is much more critical to the operation.

Blake Bortles is every bad QB the NFL has ever seen. Predetermined throws/no real reading of the defense from the pocket. Elongated/slower throwing motion. Mediocre athlete. Settles for dump passes and check downs as a way of life—with the occasional heave deep, hoping for a miracle connection…which will happen 1-2-3x per season. In the end, you have a low completion percentage passer (when the ball travels more than 5+ yards from the LOS) who takes on a lot of sacks because if the safe option is taken away—he’s done. Bortles was the most sacked QB in the NFL last season. Nick Foles, who is universally mocked for his foot speed and sacks allowed…took the 2nd least amount of sacks per game last year.

Jacksonville is a QB, and head coach, away from having something…having a competitive team. Head coach is easy to find…because they only matter if they have a franchise QB. Some NFL teams are on a 20+ year search for a franchise QB—it’s not easy to find.

If you have FF-things tied to Blake Bortles, it’s not going to be good/consistent in FF-2015. You might get garbage time/prevent action on Allen Robinson (3 rec. for 64 yards on 7 targets), but you’ll get a lot of heartache as well.

I stopped keeping track at one point, but I’m not sure Bortles completed a pass that travelled 5+ yard from the LOS in this game.

 

 — One of my favorite young LBs to watch, Jags IDP Jeremiah George (9 tackles, 7 solo) led all players in tackles in this game. He is one of the most instinctive tackles in traffic I’ve seen among the young LBs coming into the league. I don’t think he’s going to start for the Jags, however. He might. I hope he does.

 

 — The follow up game for Jags UDFA rookie DE IDP Nordly ‘Cap’ Capi (2 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 QB hit) was a little quieter than his preseason Week-1 multi-sack event, but still not bad. He made a few good pushes at the QB, and nearly got a sack—and did get a ‘QB hit’. He was mostly working the 4th-quarter. See our newly filed scouting report on him on CFM.

**See the 2015 NFL Draft and 2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft, like never before with our Moneyball-style scouting reports and rankings. Go to www.collegefootballmetrics.com**

 

 — Ryan Nassib (19-35 for 217 yards, 1 TD/0 INT)…or Brad Nuzzle, as the Jags announcer sheepishly, confusingly identified him at first…played well. After watching Eli float passes all over the place, it was refreshing to see Nassib’s crisp throws, and solid mobility. He’s toiling away with the 2nd and 3rd-team groups, so no one cares. Nassib is one of the 25-30 best QBs in the NFL right now. It’s a shame he’ll be wasted for years for NYG before he becomes a free agent.

Speaking of QBs who should be starting over Blake Bortles right this second—Ricky Stanzi was given a chance to show up his former Jags team late in the game. Stanzi was inserted on the game on the last drive, and took two critical kneel downs to secure the victory. Hopefully, he starts Week-4 of the preseason.

 

**Our ever-evolving, ever-updating to opening-day, Moneyball scouted, 2015 Fantasy Football e-Draft Guide and Cheat Sheets are available now. Direct link: Draft Guide 2015 options**

 

 

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