Fantasy Football Metrics

Cleveland Browns

Dynasty-Fantasy Football Commentary On The Latest Football News (6/11/15)

Twitter @FFMetrics


Post-draft, there is always a little lull in football happenings. So when a roto-site or NFL news aggregator picks a random story and shapes it within a 2-4 sentence slanted blurb–it can become a sudden story of epic Fantasy proportion…because we’re all starved for football snacks in May-June. I will comb the latest news and give my quick (or not so quick) take on them daily during the week–over the next few weeks.

In addition, some/most days the ever popular ‘things that aggravate me’ will be below the daily football takes. We need a sponsor for ‘things that aggravate me’, as it is a popular feature, and very cathartic for me…and we want to help business in America, mainly ours…which is also in America, so if interested–contact us. 


The news that caught my eye the past few days:


– Roto/football headlines are amusing. I read two reports on the same day this week–one where a witness proclaimed Sam Bradford was moving around fine, and another person saying they were concerned how slowly he was moving around.

Which is it?

If I’ve learned anything by stumbling into the NFL club, uninvited, through the back door—it’s that the people involved generally have no idea what they are looking at. Every human brings a bias to the scouting table. Knowing a lot about football is not the same as literally watching a human moving, and determining whether they are moving better/faster and more effective than another—when the difference is split seconds.

The split seconds are everything…a 4.4 runner could be a superstar (depending), and a 4.70+ runner cannot. Three tenths of one second. Can you tell the difference between a 4.42 and 4.57 runner with just your eyes? I can’t. I need the data. In my world the difference between those two times can mean everything for valuation and usage. Merely eyeballing them for judgement is folly…unless you have a gift.

…and it is a ‘gift’ to be able to see and discern the talent from just watching. It is hours/years of film study + the mental ‘it’ that can see ‘it’. Not high IQ needs, just an innate, likely unteachable ability to see ‘it’. Many do painstaking work, and don’t have ‘it’. Others have ‘it’, but not the time to give over to the study of ‘it’.

We are lapping up beat writer reports on things they probably do not and cannot really know…or cannot really see ‘it’.

In addition, looking good in practice/in shorts is so much different than in real, on-field warfare. You know this is a simple truth, but I don’t think we all fully appreciate the difference…and I know most scouts, analysts and writers don’t properly value the difference.

I write this as a reminder not to jump off a cliff when a beat writer says XYZ player ‘looks good’ this summer…beauty is in the eye of the beholder, and a lot of these ‘professional’ eyes have psychological logs in them. If it was easy to see ‘it’, there wouldn’t be such an awful track record of everyone getting things more wrong than right on player evaluations.

When I saw the Roto-note that Ace Sanders was the talk of Jaguars camp, I nearly typed up my resignation letter and considered studying basketball metrics for a living.

**Our ever-evolving, ever-updating to kick-off, Moneyball scouted, 2015 Fantasy Football e-Draft Guide and Cheat Sheets are on available now. Direct link: Draft Guide 2015 options **


 — One quick thing on these Roto-headlines, as it pertains to the Browns backfield in the past week…

OK, on several reports via different observers, you’re all telling me that each one of Terrence West, Isaiah Crowell, and Duke Johnson are taking 1st-team reps…are they running the wishbone in Cleveland this season? Each individual report ‘breaks’ the story to me as if one of them is now the favored nation starter when in reality they are all just rotating around? Actually, with that QB group, it would make a lot of sense to just abandon the forward-pass. Perhaps, they are seeing ‘it’ up at Cleveland practices—the ‘it’ is the wishbone.

Memo to Fantasy website headline re-posters…Blurbs from beat writers telling me on different days that they (the CLE RB trio) all ‘look good’ on these various individual reports are not helping me. Oh great, thanks for the news, I guess I’ll go FF-draft all three of them this weekend. That makes sense. A different Cleveland RB ‘looking good’ to a different beat writer each day is not worthy of a report out.

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Here’s what is aggravating me today, sponsored by (your company here)…


You know this commercial I’m going to speak of. It’s cute, fast-paced, and well-done. You know the one where the guy…

 — Proclaims with his ‘buds’ hanging out at the bar that he’s “…never getting married,” then smash-cut to him picking out an engagement ring.

 — Then he proclaims he is “…never having kids,” as a baby screams in the background on an airplane, smash-cut to his wife delivering their baby.

 — Then he proclaims he is “…never leaving the city,” smash-cut to him in the front yard of his suburban home.

 — Then he proclaims, he is “…never having another kid,” as he cleans marker drawings off the walls in his house, just then his wife walks by announcing she’s pregnant.

 — Then the dual pay-off with the commercial…

1) The reason for the commercial: He says he’s never getting “one of those (a mini-van)”…smash-cut to him washing a mini-van in his driveway. I’m not even sure what company’s mini-van it is…so that’s ineffective advertising, or I’m just dumb.

2) It ends with the whole perfect family scene with his wife + 2 cute kids asleep on his lap and shoulders on their couch, as he softly proclaims, “He’s never letting go.” A sweet ending. A smart, fast-paced, cleverly done commercial. Awwww

I’ve seen it a million-times, I bet you have too.

Something just hit me about it today. Something I never thought of before.

No, it’s not that I might have a crush on his wife as she’s carrying the laundry, walking away from him while announcing she’s pregnant. If that’s what you are implying, you’re wrong. Stop trying to distract me.

What I thought today: Basically this guy has like some magic charm over the universe. He proclaims something, and then the exact opposite happens…to our comic delight. Well, the last thing he says in the commercial is “I’m never letting go,” implying he’s satisfied with his family, etc. But if everything he proclaims goes 180-degrees opposite…there is only one way that story can end, right? The laws of nature of this commercial have to apply/continue!

I need the next part of the commercial to be: Smash-cut to he’s in a divorce court room scene battling with his 45-year old ex-wife, with her 22-year old personal trainer by her side to comfort her, as they argue over who’s going to get the Roy Rogers, wagon wheel-looking coffee table?

Does that thought make me weird? Most likely. Hey, it’s been a long week with the draft guide machinations.

The next scene of that commercial has to be this (below): The guy says, “I’m never letting go…” and cut-to this added scene:




R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football, and a football projections analyst and writer for Fantasy Football He is also a lead writer for ‘Play The’. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here: The Machine via FFM

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