I bet this game heavy, and lost. I bet against Ryan Mallett…I bet on the Browns…and I got thumped. You know it’s funny. Watching this game go down the tubes…it made me consider stopping my football wagering. At least, not take it so seriously or no longer make bigger bets.
I am watching this game, and right before half-time Houston is in the red-zone, and Mallett throws a ball 7-10 yards over the middle. He doesn’t see the Linebacker just squatting there…which is what I expect out of Ryan Mallett. All the ILB has to do is move to his right, which he was, catch the ball in stride…and the two things woulda/coulda have happened (a) The Browns stop this scoring drive, and (b) Possibly they reverse it into a pick-six…good for my bet, good for my Cleveland-DST that I rated #1 for the week (and got smoked on).
As the Linebacker moves towards the easy interception, he runs into a referee trying to get out of the way of the pass. They bump into each other and grind to a halt. The pass whistles by them both for a catch and small-run TD by Garrett Graham…a seven-point, possibly 14-point change of events (and possible huge momentum shift) all because a referee got in the way. Why bother placing wagers? I have to factor in referees in the way now? Some of this is whining. Some of it is…can you really consistently beat Vegas/NFL 60%+ of the time in this fickle game? If you can’t, my time is better spent researching elsewhere. Sour grapes…
— Isaiah Crowell (14 carries for 61 yards, 2 rec. for 30 yards on 4 targets) broke a 35-yard run in this game, but in his other 13 carries…26 yards rushing (2.0 ypc). Excluding the Bengals aberration…the Browns running game has been horrid the last five weeks.
I would not be shocked to see Terrance West (5 carries for 12 yards) run away with this starting job as the main-carry guy more times than not for the ROS. You can’t bet on it, because the Browns RB usage is wild and unpredictable.
Rookie RB Glenn Winston is a name to be aware of, assuming he takes the vacated Ben Tate spot. Here’s more on Winston: (link) Week 12 Deep Sleepers on PFS
— Ryan Mallett (20-30 for 211 yards, 2 TD1/ INT) wins a road game against respected (at the time) Cleveland, and now people are all excited by Mallett—the big arm, etc. After the 1st-quarter, when Cleveland adjusted…Mallett never completed a pass that traveled more than 8-yards in the air…except the TD pass before the half that should have been picked if not for the referee. It was a Kirk Cousins-esque controlled, timing pass guessing game…and he mostly guessed right.
Again, once the picks happen here he’s going to fold…my prediction. This was great design by Bill O’Brien, and good/lucky execution by Mallett. You’ll see…
– R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here: The Machine via FFM
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Category Archives: Cleveland Browns
Twitter @FFMetrics I bet on Cincinnati -6.0 points in this game, and that obviously didn’t go well. Looking back over the prior couple of weeks, I saw a Cleveland team stifled in its run game…a heavy run attack to keep the ball out of Brian Hoyer’s hands, from a sense that if Hoyer is throwing […].. Continue reading→
Twitter @FFMetrics This is where I depart from Lovie Smith. I’ve not been super ‘pro’ or ‘con’ with him. I respect that he had good teams in Chicago, and built a killer defense there. You have to give him respect for that. I know a lot of Chicago fans were ticked because of the Rex Grossman […].. Continue reading→
Twitter @FFMetrics Let me veer off onto a soap box for a long moment (shocker). It may make no sense because I planned to write just 2-3 sentences about it, but 2,000+ words later I was ready to move into a shack in Idaho, and mail my piece to the government. I put about half or […].. Continue reading→
Twitter @FFMetrics – Just a quick note for anyone bemoaning the Browns-DST recommendation for Week-7: What else do you want? (1) They had three picks and two sacks! Yes, you want to see a shutout delivered, but the guy NFL analysts spent the entire week crying for the Browns to pay as a true franchise […].. Continue reading→
Twitter @FFMetrics OK, I began the game recap Week-6 sessions with the two teams I interpreted wrong going into Week-6 (Tampa and Minnesota). Now, let me talk about one of the situations I nailed, going back to opening-week. Let me say it again, the Cleveland Browns are one of the top-5 coached/managed teams in the […].. Continue reading→
Twitter @FFMetrics — Bishop Sankey (8 carries for 27 yards, 1 target) is so clearly the best RB on the team…it’s comical. The Titans are employing a RBBC where three & a half RBs are getting about equal time. The offensive snap count for TEN RBs from this game: 22 = Sankey 18 = Greene […].. Continue reading→
Twitter @FFMetrics — I must get you this info before Week-4 waivers close. For those that picked up the San Diego-DST with us a week ago, in anticipation of the Week-4 matchup with Jacksonville, and the schedule to come. You might really consider picking up the Browns-DST (on a BYE now) for whatever dud spot […].. Continue reading→
Twitter @FFMetrics — My main note from this game: Don’t mentally get deflated on Brandin Cooks (3 rec. for 17 yards on 6 targets, 31 yards rushing) because it wasn’t a home run FF-game this week. As the Saints head home for two of next three games…everything is going to perk up on offense. It just does at […].. Continue reading→
Twitter @FFMetrics I’m going to begin this recap with two ostentatious statements… 1) Le’Veon Bell (21 carries for 109 yards and 1 TD, 6 rec. for 88 yards on 7 targets) is a strong candidate for 2014 NFL Offensive MVP, and I would say odds-on favorite to be the #1 Fantasy Football scoring RB this […].. Continue reading→
— A lot of chatter about Benny Cunningham pushing Zac Stacy. I want to disbelieve this, because the NFL is rarely radical, but The Computer was also the original Benny Cunningham hype train…so I am biased. — Two people, including Chris Mortensen, are leaning a break or more for Josh Gordon. — More and more […].. Continue reading→