Fantasy Football Metrics

Dynasty-Fantasy Football Analysis – 2017 Preseason Wk 1: Saints v. Browns

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*Lots of games to cover and moving faster than editors can keep up with, so forgive any typos, etc. 2,000+ word articles on preseason games ain’t easy. Going for quantity over quality to get the news out ASAP.

 

As dull a game as this was, I have like a million little notes written on it. To help break up the read, I am adding in some of the pearls from Browns’ preseason TV analyst Solomon Wilcox from the game broadcast…so get ready to learn fools (written the way I remember them).

— First things first, I didn’t look, but I swear if I see a DeShone Kizer (11-18 for 184 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) ‘shined’ article (or ever a DeShone ‘shone brightly’) – that person should never be allowed to comment on football again.

On a night where people got to see Trubisky v. Sloter in all its glory…this Kizer view paled in comparison. Spending most of the night as I scouted at Notre Dame – locking on with the first read and throwing erratic, hard passes…somehow Kizer hit two deep balls late in the game when it appeared all was lost and Kizer would have been judged to have an unimpressive night. He got one-on-one, bad coverage by the Saints and heaved balls downfield that found the mark…twice. Outside of that – rough. I’m sure it’s reported as ‘glorious’ so I’m not even going to look.

All the ‘rough’ will be forgotten, and the people will remember the big plays from the highlights. Kizer is as advertised by College Football Metrics.

— OK, I’m going to say this and it’s going to make people mad because there is a lot ping pong back-and-forth coming from me on this player, but I gotta express what I see/feel.

I’m tired of watching Cleveland games, isolating on/hoping for something from Corey Coleman (2-11-0/4) to get excited about on game tape. I’m always left lacking.

He’s not a bad wide receiver…as I worried he might be after last preseason/regular season. After re-watching his entire 2016, I saw a pretty solid WR. I just don’t see ‘wow’…there’s a flash here and there but nothing sustained. His measurables and college performance said ‘wow’ was there and my eyes say it’s not. I never see great catches, amazing moves to get open…amazing moves after the catch. I see a ‘good worker’. He’s good…I don’t see great.

Solid WR + truly hideous QB play in Cleveland = Corey Coleman will never fulfill any great upside hopes for fantasy any time soon. It’s not that there is no hope, but if you have to bet – you’d bet against Coleman mattering in the current situation. You sell the remaining excitement if there is a buyer. Kizer getting people amped up might help.

Brock Osweiler (6-14 for 42 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) started and he barely looked for Coleman. He had more eyes for Kenny Britt (1-4-0/3). Britt seems like the leader — looking at the body language, and QB reaction of this WR group.

The best-looking WR Cleveland has might be Ricardo Louis (1-10-0/2), but if you think the Browns QB situation will support just one WR (and it won’t) for fantasy…it definitely won’t support the #2 and #3 guys.

The Browns QB situation is truly horrible. Do you think this current regime will fix it? They’re the ones holding Cody Kessler and drafting Kizer. Their Moneyball crystal ball is not good at QB. They won’t give up on Kizer until after 2018…but then it’s too late. They’re all going to get fired – and Coleman will be mostly a fantasy dud for the next two years. Not because Coleman is awful, but the QB play and offensive plan are.

I hope Coleman can make lemonade here, but there is no reason to believe it possible. Sorry.

*Solomon Wilcox, after a DB made a good tackle – “That’s what Gregg Williams wants. Guys who can tackle.” Great analysis!

Myles Garrett (1 tackle, 1 TFL) looked every bit the part of a franchise DE in this game. He was a handful for blockers on every snap. Motivated Garrett is scary.

— I am totally buying what the Browns are selling. They aren’t hiding this and we shouldn’t discount it…they are going to build this offense around throwing to Duke Johnson (1-5-0, 1-9-0/1). It’s too easy a pass for awful passers to make – dumps to the RB. In general, I don’t want to rely heavily upon Duke in FF, but for where he is trading in redraft/PPR…I’m a buyer as part of my cheap rotation/depth. He’s a better Theo Riddick potentially, but with worse QB play to harness the numbers some.

*Solomon Wilcox, after a DB defended a pass nicely – “That’s what Gregg Williams is known for, DBs who can cover.

Alvin Kamara (4-35-0) was halted at the line of scrimmage, and pulled away from a tackle and sprinted to daylight and gained 22-yards. It was a great-looking play. Kamara looked very nimble and energetic in this game. I’m not anti-Kamara, I just don’t think he’s anything as special as scouts tried to make him out to be. He’s good…and in a bad spot for fantasy because Adrian Peterson is going to destroy the flow because he’s AP. He’ll demand touches and the Saints will acquiesce.

Once AP goes down and/or out…Kamara is going to be a solid PPR producer in this offense.

*Solomon Wilcox, after Alvin Kamara broke a tackle and made a big play (verbatim) – “That’s what Gregg Williams told us, he wanted to check out the ability of guys to make tackles.” Really…that’s what Gregg Williams actually told you?

Alvin Kamara looked great, but Tommylee Lewis (10-124-1/11) looked like Brandin Cooks against the Browns’ preseason defense…so, I’m not ready to jump overboard on either guy just yet.

I will say, Lewis is a scrapper and has a hint of electricity…and on a team needing playmakers, Lewis is one of the only ‘lightning strike’ guys they have. Lewis is their Tyreek Hill, only nowhere near as good.

Ted Ginn (0-0-0/2) is their main ‘lightning strike’ guy – and he dropped a 6-yard TD pass right in his hands, wide-open. You’re getting 7+ bad drops a season, and 7+ TDs as well. Live with it.

*Solomon Wilcox, after a linebacker made a nice play – “That’s what Gregg Williams wants, linebackers who can pursue.

— Browns rookie Matt Dayes (3-9-1, 3-8-0/4) did not look bad at all. His measurables aren’t great, but he can play ball. I don’t see how he’ll matter for FF anytime soon, but if forced in due to injury…he’s not awful. Just not special.

Seth DeValve (2-14-0/6) was really moving nicely on his pass routes. I’m a fan, but thought David Njoku (DNP) squashed DeValve fantasy dreams…now, I’d guess DeValve kills Njoku dreams dead. I didn’t have Njoku dreams, but for those who did. My Njoku dreams are that I can’t tell the difference between him and Eric Ebron (that’s not a compliment, newer readers).

*Solomon Wilcox, after some guy on defense ran fast – “That’s what Gregg Williams likes, guys who can run.

— Saints Rookie IDP Alex Anzalone (3 tackles) played a lot in this game. He moved well and looked fine, but didn’t stand out to me in any way.

— I thought the Saints defensive backfield looked really good in this game…the main guys, not the guys who gave up bombs in known bomb situations late. The Saints have a sneaky good defensive personnel unit.

*Solomon Wilcox, after someone recovered a fumble – “That’s what Gregg Williams demands from his defense…turnovers.” So glad just the forcefulness of asking creates them. He should have spoken up more in L.A…

— Saints UDFA Rookie RB Darius Victor (5-13-0. 1-8-0/1) looked solid in his late game work. A bowling ball, 210-pound runner that one of our readers really likes and has proclaimed the RB to watch this preseason – the coming breakout star of 2017 preseason.

He’s a solid enough hand. No ‘wow’ factor. A 4.70 runner with 7.28 three-cone out of Towson.

— Three blasts from the past…

Ryan Nassib (10-14 for 110 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) had a nice showing. How Blake Bortles continues to start for an NFL team on purpose and this guy (Nassib) can’t get the time of day is a crime…and a crime committed by the NFL and its analysts all day, every day.

Brandon Wilds (1-5-0) was in and out in a flash. Nothing to report except he’ll not make this team opening day.

Josh Boyce (2-35-0/3) is still in the NFL…I didn’t know. I was watching this and he made a catch and I didn’t know who it was, but the guy looked good. I was intrigued. They said, “Josh Boyce with the nice catch” and I almost fell over.

Reality arrived as the next pass he dropped one he should have/needed to catch.

 

 

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 — rc@fantasyfootballmetrics.com

 

 

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics, and College Football Metrics. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.”

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