Fantasy Football Metrics

2017 Dynasty Rookie Draft ADP Analysis (5.0)…


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*These are NOT our draft suggestions…no way…our dynasty rookie draft rankings look WAAAYYY different than this. It’s shaping up to be another, lesser-version of 2015 — a dynasty rookie draft chocked full of value between picks #10-20 overall. See our NFL Draft and dynasty rookie draft valuations/rankings at College Football


NOTE: The DUMB money is in right now. If you’re drafting in May, you’re in the greatest time to rookie draft. All the dynasty draft sheep have are misguided pre-draft rankings slightly touched up post-draft based on any media-sensation via ESPN,, Yahoo, etc. You’ll see what I mean with the current ADP top 30+. Most of the mainstream rankers are barely looking at the overall roster situations…and they don’t understand them anyway. Their rookie rankings are empty/silly.

The echo chamber of dummies rules May dynasty rookie drafts – take advantage!!


1) RB Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville

*#1 in 53% of Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings/drafts we’ve tracked this past week

People seem to be comforted by ‘Jacksonville’, which ‘Jacksonville’ usually means a negative. How far we’ve come in the past two years. Christian McCaffrey is making his move. I would be shocked if Fournette-McCaffrey-Mixon are in a sprint to the #1 ADP spot by August 1.


2) RB Christian McCaffrey, Carolina (+1 spot since last week)

*#1 in 28% of Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings/drafts we’ve tracked this past week

I’m amazed at the heat McCaffrey has. He’s basically the greatest receiving RB in the history of football. I can’t wait to see him actually catch a pass in the NFL…

I wish the experts had noticed how good David Johnson was catching passes in college, but he only went to Northern Iowa, so they liked Andre Ellington a lot better. Comparing physical features, David Johnson looks like he ate Christian McCaffrey as a snack yesterday…but OK, McCaffrey + Cam to the moon and back!!


3) WR Corey Davis, Tennessee (-1 spot since last week)

*#1 in 11% of Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings/drafts we’ve tracked this past week

Ice cold momentum. He’s going to fall to #4 soon. He holds up for those looking WR, but the allure and magic are with the RBs in the rookie draft right now. We’re in a running back renaissance. Good-bye, ‘Zero RB’ theory…


4) RB Joe Mixon, Cincinnati

*#1 in 8% of Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings/drafts we’ve tracked this past week

I wouldn’t be shocked if Mixon is #2-3 before long. Could overtake McCaffrey when you consider the amount of non-PPR leagues into the mix of data. McCaffrey doesn’t hold up as well non-PPR.


5) RB Dalvin Cook, Minnesota

The Vikings third-best RB is the #5 overall dynasty rookie selection average…delightful…


6) WR Mike Williams, San Diego (+1 spot since last week)

We live in a world where Tyrell Williams does not exist. You thought there was a 6’3″+/220+ WR who has Julio Jones-like athleticism and posted 1,000+ yards in not-a-full-year of play in 2016, but you were wrong…you just imagined that. So did the Chargers new ‘brain trust’.


7) WR John Ross, Cincinnati (-1 spot since last week)

A real fall in momentum from last week. Not sure why. I think his size and injury background might be spooking people in the Davis-Williams-Ross evaluations.


8) TE O.J. Howard, Tampa Bay

I guess Cameron Brate doesn’t exist either.


9) RB Samaje Perine, Washington

I thought we’d see Perine start inching his way into the top 5-6…not yet.


10) RB Alvin Kamara, New Orleans (+3 spots since last week)

There is more momentum for Kamara than Perine among the masses. Kamara could be top 8 before long. Inexplicably.


11) RB Kareem Hunt, Kansas City

We live in a world where Spencer Ware does not exist…


12) TE Evan Engram, NY Giants

Taken 19 spots (on average) ahead of the other ‘next Jordan Reed‘. On a team that has never used the TE like that…


13) QB Deshaun Watson, Houston (+4 spots since last week)

Not a lot of confidence in Tom Savage, I guess? Savage throws left-handed handed than Watson does right-handed…

I think the mainstream is starting to settle on Watson as the QB they will back as ‘best in class’. He’s going to be the first QB taken in most every draft.


14) TE David Njoku, Cleveland (+2 spots since last week)

People want in on the legendary Kessler-to-Njoku connection…


15) WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh (-5 spots since last week)

Landed in a great spot for fantasy if Martavis Bryant doesn’t come back, but the fear of Bryant may have set in the past week.


16) RB D’Onta Foreman, Houston

So, Kareem Hunt will push ahead of Spencer Ware faster than Foreman will jump Lamar Miller? Logical…


17) WR Zay Jones, Buffalo (-2 spots since last week)

The Bills essentially made Jones a first-round pick (early second) and declined the option on Sammy Watkins…and the market reacts with a yawn on Zay.


18) RB Marlon Mack, Indianapolis

Step Right Up!!! The next contender on the ‘this is the year Frank Gore dies off‘ fantasy contest.


19) WR Curtis Samuel, Carolina

You cannot serve two masters in Carolina…McCaffrey and Samuel. People chose to worship the golden calf Christian McCaffrey.


20) RB Joe Williams, San Francisco (+3 spots since last week)

The Peter King special. No one cared before, and then the Peter King story hit and people went nuts. The power of media persuasion.


21) RB Jamaal Williams, Green Bay (-1 spot since last week)

You know the Packers drafted three RBs this year, right?


22) QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City (new to the top 30)

White hot. Hottest mover since last week. The mainstream hates Alex Smith, and thus the sheep do. There is a belief that somehow Mahomes will bump Smith opening day. This is never going to happen.


23) WR Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay (-2 spots since last week)

The opposite of JuJu…terrible landing spot for his talents.


24) QB Mitch Trubisky, Chicago

When does he play…2017 or 2018?


25) RB Jeremy McNichols, Tampa Bay (-3 spots since last week)

All the positive Doug Martin talk is pushing McNichols out from sleeper to deep sleeper.


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26) WR Carlos Henderson, Denver (-1 spot since last week)

One of the big droppers right after the NFL Draft due to landing spot…I never understood the love, to begin with. Solid WR, but not amazing.


27) WR Cooper Kupp, LA Rams (-1 spot since last week)

No love for the Rams #1 WR…


28) RB James Conner. Pittsburgh (new to the top 30 since pre-NFL Draft)

What happens if Le’Veon Bell misses another drug test?


29) QB DeShone Kizer, Cleveland (+6 spots since last week)

Hey, look…it’s the media’s next ‘Big Ben-like‘ QB. Move aside Blake Bortles and Carson Wentz, a new Big Ben label QB is here. When Hue Jackson says it – you know it’s true.


30) WR Ardarius Stewart, NY Jets (+1 spot since last week)

No prospect ever fit a team more… The worst WR prospect goes to the worst NFL team with the worst QB play. The Robby Anderson arrest helps his case for PT in 2017.


31) Wayne Gallman, NY Giants (+1 spot since last week)

When is the last time you sustainably prospered from a NY Giants RB for fantasy?


32) WR Taywan Taylor, Tennessee (+2 spots since last week)

So, you like Carlos Henderson’s landing spot better than Taywan’s?


33) WR Dede Westbrook, Jacksonville (-4 spots since last week)

Hey, look…it’s the Jags #5 WR. Blake Bortles will make this magical, I’m sure


34) TE Gerald Everett. LA Rams (-7 spots since last week)

You know new Rams HC Sean McVay created the ‘Jordan Reed‘ role in Washington, right?


35) WR Josh Reynolds, LA Rams (-5 spots since last week)

He is likely starting, right? Maybe the Rams #2 WR? That’s not worth more than Dede Westbrook in Jacksonville?


36) TE Adam Shaheen, Chicago

37) TE Jake Butt, Kansas City

38) RB Aaron Jones, Green Bay

39) RB Donnel Pumphrey, Philadelphia…honestly, are you people high? This is worse than when Ka’Deem Carey was the mainstream’s #1 RB in January of his draft year. Pumphrey was that guy for the mainstream in 2017…let it go, he’s not an NFL RB or WR.

40) WR Chad Williams, Arizona




1) Myles Garrett, Cleveland

2) Reuben Foster, San Francisco (+4 spots since last week)

3) Jarrad Davis, Detroit (+1 spot since last week)

4) Jamal Adams, NY Jets (+1 spot since last week)

5) Haason Reddick, Arizona (-3 spots since last week)


Good luck in your draft’s this weekend!




About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics, and College Football Metrics. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.”

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