Fantasy Football Metrics

2017 Dynasty Rookie Draft ADP Analysis (2.0)…


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OK, we’re out of March and into April/NFL Draft month. Once we’re past the basketball tournament, the NFL Draft really starts to gain momentum every day until actual D-Day. The pre-NFL Draft dynasty rookie draft ADPs in early drafts and analyst’s rankings are going to start changing dramatically over the next few weeks, and we’re going to track it right up to the NFL Draft and for weeks after the NFL Draft.

Here’s a look at what we see with the dynasty rookie draft ADPs and rankings in drafts taking place that we’ve been tracking over the past 10 days…

*These are NOT are draft suggestions…no way…our dynasty rookie draft rankings look WAAAYYY different than this. It’s shaping up to be another 2015 — a dynasty rookie draft chocked full of value between picks #10-20 overall. See our NFL Draft and dynasty rookie draft valuations/rankings at College Football



1) RB Leonard Fournette, LSU (+1 spot)

*#1 in 42% of Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings/drafts we’ve tracked in the past 10 days

Has moved past Dalvin Cook in the past week. Actually, Cook is dropping and Fournette is standing still waving bye-bye.


2) RB Dalvin Cook, Florida State (-1 spot)

*#1 in 27% of Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings/drafts we’ve tracked in the past 10 days

The support for Cook is starting to fade. Sharks are fading him to outside the top 5, but sheep are still taking him #1. In another 7-10 days, Cook may be outside the top 3-4.


3) WR Corey Davis, Western Michigan

*#1 in 11% of Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings/drafts we’ve tracked in the past 10 days

Davis has become the #1 WR choice for analysts and dynasty GMs in pre-NFL Draft dynasty rookie drafts. Occasionally Mike Williams or John Ross jump ahead of him but it’s clearly Davis at the top right now.


4) RB Christian McCaffrey, Stanford (+2 spots)

The rookie with the biggest momentum right now. He may wind up as a late-breaking #1 overall for most people as there is an inherent distrust for Fournette and Cook and not a ton of conviction on the WRs.

*#1 in 10% of Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings/drafts we’ve tracked in the past 10 days


5) WR Mike Williams, Clemson (-1 spot)

*#1 in 7% of Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings/drafts we’ve tracked in the past 10 days

There are a few hangers-on to Williams as the top receiver…likely, those who are working with analysts rankings from Jan-Feb.


6) RB Joe Mixon, Oklahoma (-1 spot)

*#1 in 3% of Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings/drafts we’ve tracked in the past 10 days

The Mixon rocketship ride to the top 5 is running out of gas.


7) WR John Ross, Washington

Every so often you’ll see Ross as the #1 receiver off the dynasty rookie draft board, but more often he is #3. More and more, I am seeing Ross pushed ahead of Mike Williams. It probably won’t be long before Ross and Williams flip places in the overall rookie ADP.


8) RB D’Onta Foreman, Texas (+3 spots)

Momentum is growing for Foreman as a Fournette-alternative.


9) TE O.J. Howard, Alabama (+1 spot)

I thought Howard would track higher than this but between the bias against tight ends in a rookie draft and the low production at Alabama – the excitement is just not there.


10) RB Alvin Kamara, Tennessee (-2 spots)

I understand how this is happening. I don’t understand why it is happening. I don’t get the love here at all.


11) WR Chris Godwin, Penn State (+1 spot)

Godwin is holding his momentum coming out of the NFL Combine. He has a lot of variation…sometimes the #3 WR off the board, sometimes the 8-10th.


12) WR Curtis Samuel, Ohio State (+1 spot)

Talk of him as an RB has pushed his stock a little higher dynasty rookie draft rankings.


13) RB Samaje Perine, Oklahoma (-4 spots)

Was hot a few weeks ago, but cooled some the past 7-10 days.


14) WR Carlos Henderson, La Tech

He is a draftnik ‘sleeper’ favorite at WR right now…among the non-Corey Davis/Mike Williams/John Ross cluster of WRs. I’m shocked his ADP is running this highly.


15) WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, USC

There’s a lot of pent up love for JSS out there. If he lands in a perceived ‘good place’ post-NFL Draft…he’ll zoom into the top 12.


16) TE Evan Engram, Ole Miss

I’m surprised Engram is tracking ahead of David Njoku. The analysts like Njoku more, but dynasty GMs are more ‘iffy’ on him. I think Engram could move into the top 12 if he lands in a ‘perceived’ good place. The Jordan Reed comp is a siren call. Read our scouting report at College Football Metrics before you jump!


17) TE David Njoku, Miami, Fla

Njoku is probably stuck as the third TE off the dynasty rookie board unless he lands right in the NFL Draft and O.J. Howard and Evan Engram land wrong.


18) WR Zay Jones, East Carolina

Jones is still seen as “That guy who caught all those passes in that offense.” Or…”Justin Hardy 2.0″


19) WR Taywan Taylor, W. Kentucky (+1 spot)

Carlos Henderson is getting the love over Taylor, among the highly productive Conference USA WR prospects


20) QB Deshaun Watson, Clemson

The top quarterback on the ADP listings. The only one in the top 24. Mitchell Trubisky is tracking mid-third round. I don’t know if it’s the Browns’ landing spot possibility or the media negativity…but Trubisky isn’t close to Watson right now.


21) RB Jeremy McNichols, Boise State (+3 spots)

He’s more taken early third-round in rookie drafts but the ADP consolidation puts him #24. The players on the ADP list after him start to get into guys who are sometimes late second, sometimes not even taken among the first 40 players.


22) WR Cooper Kupp, E. Washington

I don’t think he’ll go much higher than #18-24 range no matter where he lands in the NFL Draft. Kupp is not firing anyone up right now.


23) WR Dede Westbrook, Oklahoma

A 4.4 runner with poor agility at 5’11/178 does not get me excited…but apparently, it does for others…


24) WR Malachi Dupre, LSU (-5 spots)

I guess the case here is ‘LSU’? I’m shocked he is in the top 24.



Rounding out the top 30…

25) RB Kareem Hunt, Toledo (new)

26) WR Ardarius Stewart, Alabama (+2 spots)

27) QB Mitch Trubisky, UNC (+2 spots)

28) TE Bucky Hodges, Virginia Tech (-3 spots)

29) QB Pat Mahomes, Texas Tech (new)

30) WR K.D. Cannon, Baylor


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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics, and College Football Metrics. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.”

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