Fantasy Football Metrics

Week-15 Fantasy Football 2012 Box Score Notes — Broncos vs. Ravens (12/16/12)

tags — fantasy football Torrey Smith dynasty Bernard Pierce keeper Ray Rice snap count Dennis Pitta


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 — On a PPG basis (non-PPR scoring), considering we consider fractional games played due to injuries (where appropriate), when it comes to TEs there is the solid top-5 = Gronk, Heath, Graham, Hernzndez, Gonzo…a group that is a step ahead. Then there is a drop off into a dog-fight for the #6 overall Fantasy TE this season between Jason Witten, Owen Daniels, and my man Dennis Pitta (7 catches for 125 yards and 2 TDs).

For years, the computer has been howling in the wind about Pitta. Finally, some retribution! The thing is, Pitta has not scratched the surface yet. The potential/model season for Pitta is 100+ catches. Depending upon the new Offensive Coordinator, that could be possible in 2013.

The only TEs this season with more games played this season with 65+ yards than Pitta (4) is Gronkowski (5) and Graham (6).  

 — Ray Rice (12 carries for 38 yards, 3 rec for 3 yards) has rushed for over 100+ yards in a game just one time in his last nine games played. People can talk about not enough carries or Cam Cameron…as much as anything the issue is how fast Bernard Pierce (5 carries for 20 yards) hit the scene. Had Pierce been drafted onto the Tampa Bay Buccaneers instead of Doug Martin (and Martin to the Ravens), we’d all be clamoring about the 1,000+ yard rusher Pierce.

The presence of Pierce means, to me, that Ray Rice is not a 1st-round pick in Fantasy Football 2013 drafts. It’s also more evidence why spending huge money on a RB is a terrible move in the NFL. That money is wiser spent elsewhere.

 — Torrey Smith (1 rec for 14 yards, 3 targets) left this game with a concussion. Torrey is nearing the end of a bizarre year where at times he was among the best WRs in the NFL…and other times where he was completely forgotten by his team. The Ravens are a “smart” NFL franchise. They are likely to make a wise decision on personnel matters, versus a gaffe. Assuming they improve the offensive coaching, etc. next season — Smith is among the 10 most gifted WRs in the NFL…and he’s probably available for a song in Dynasty Leagues this off-season. It is not a talent issue with Torrey…it is a target issue. You have to acquire supreme talent at a discount where possible…this is one of those opportunities.

 — Your scoring system may vary, but we have the Denver Broncos have now moved up to the #2 overall Fantasy-Defense to-date in 2012. Our computers caught that swell about two weeks before it formed a tidal wave. It has helped carry many a Fantasy GM to this point of playing for the title in Week-16. Some of this big move was schedule (as most FF-defense moves are), but it is also that they possess top NFL talent. The computer’s early projection for top-defense in 2013 would be the Denver-Defense over Seattle, Houston, San Fran and New England because of talent…but also because of schedule — KC, OAK, SD six-times in 2013!


About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics, and College Football Metrics. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.”

Fantasy Football Metrics