Fantasy Football Metrics

Week-3 Fantasy Football 2012 Box Score Notes — Packers vs. Seahawks (9/24/12)

tags — fantasy football dynasty Aaron Rodgers trade Greg Jennings sit Jordy Nelson trade Randall Cobb


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 — We have never seen anything like the end of this game our entire life. You know what I’m talking about. It’s wrong, it’s egregious, and there should be investigations. I want the whole game reversed, because there is no way a game can end with Aaron Rodgers (26-39 for 223 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) having scored no TDs. It has to be a mistake. It hasn’t happened since 2010.

After the Packers were under two minutes and running out the clock, and it became evident there would be no more Packers passing, I shut this game off, so I’m not sure how ended. It ended for me, and other fellow Rodgers owners, before it started apparently.

I’m trying to make light of a serious situation for Rodgers owners, of which I am a heavily vested one. Rodgers is currently pulling the Fantasy Football equivalent of CJ2K. He is single-handedly destroying Fantasy Football seasons. His 10+ point effort tonight, dropped him outside of the top-20 for Fantasy Football QBs…just behind Mark Sanchez. Ehhh…

I would say three things in all this:

1) If we were drafting Fantasy Football teams again today, with Weeks 1-3 data, but a league based upon Week-4 on…where would you rank Rodgers among QBs? Do you think this Week 1-3 level of scoring represents Rodgers going forward? Would you take Matt Ryan ahead of Rodgers from Week-4 on? I’ll admit the gap is a lot closer in Fantasy, but not NFL-wise. In Fantasy, I’d still lean Rodgers ahead…despite the obvious gap now. Andre Brown is a top-5 FF RB right now, so let’s not take 1-2-3 weeks and think “the results are in” for all 2012 just yet. However, it is not feeling very good right now.

Rodgers has NO-IND-HOU-STL-JAC ahead. Aside from HOU, he has a sensational schedule frothcoming. After a BYE in Week-10, he has Detroit twice in a 4-game span. Rodgers is suddenly nerve-racking, but in theory he should be fine ahead (maybe not vs. HOU).

2) You are crazy to dump or bench Rodgers for Week-4 versus the Saints. You have to stay all in with Rodgers. You are not likely to improve your lot in life with another FF QB ahead of Rodgers. If Rodgers coninues to score 10 points a game this year, I’m going to lose a lot of leagues…and probably finish last. Not only finish last, but I’ll be out of it by late-November, so I can get an early jump on Christmas shopping. You should stay linked to Rodgers, and bet that these last two weeks are a statistical aberration.

3) Dynasty League owners, this is probably your one chance to get Rodgers on a discount if you have the pieces to make a deal for him on the cheap. The same Aaron Rodgers that was a 2011 wrecking-ball in Fantasy, the one every Fantasy GM feared to face is potentially on sale now.

Re-draft leagues, if you could somehow swap your Flacco, Dalton, Fitzpatrick hot starts with another player to grab Rodgers…it could change your season.

All the decisions to be made on Rodgers are based in fear, and it’s understandable because after Week-1, my Rodgers led teams set league scoring records. In Week-3, near league all-time lows paired with Gronk, Spiller/Bush, Jordy, and Torrey on the bench. I wasn’t as good as Week-1, I’m not as bad as Week-3…but Week-3 is the taste in my mouth I remember.

If you decide Rodgers will be fine ahead, there is no need for panic. If you bail on Rodgers, you are betting against the league MVP. The 2011 most valuable Fantasy player. I think it is a major mistake. If you bet on him going forward, and he throws up some more 10 point duds, early vacation…no sweating any FF playoffs ahead.

 — With Rodgers goes Jordy Nelson (2 rec for 19 yards on 3 targets) and Greg Jennings (6 rec for 35 yards on 10 targets). A bet on Rodgers, means an upswing for Jordy and Jennings. If you want to salvage your Fantasy season, perhaps look to acquire Jordy/Jennings for a Fantasy team already with Rodgers, to get all the double-dip scoring for a huge swing up the next few weeks…or a soul-crushing defeat if Rodgers goes 10 points a game some more.

 — Some, nay a lot, of this credit goes to the Seattle-Defense…eight sacks by half-time. We offered preseason advice to pair Seattle’s defense with Cincinnati’s based upon schedule…with Seattle on ice for the first few weeks, fearing the GB/Rodgers match-up. It looks like there is no reason to fear the Seattle-Defense versus any team /QB (and CIN is racked with injuries, so that game changed as well). Week-5 versus Tom Brady will be interesting for the Seattle-D.

 — Boy, Randall Cobb (1 rush for 20 yards and 1 rec -1 yards) disappeared in this offense quickly. Another reason why it is difficult to trust fast start Week-1 “small-WRs” that have suspect talent. Cobb is just another role player in this offense.


About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics, and College Football Metrics. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.”

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