Fantasy Football Metrics

Week-9 Cowboys vs, Seahawks — Fantasy Football 2011 Game Notes


 — We have been skeptics of DeMarco Murray (22 carries for 139 yards, 4 rec for 47 yards on 6 targets) based on some questionable red-flags in our computer scouting analysis (not injury based, performance based). We trust the computer in most all circumstances, but watching the tape of this game — Murray was sensational running the ball against a very tough 2011 run-defense. His huge game against the Rams was not as impressive to us as he was running through monster holes…we knew he was fast. In this game, we saw an amazing elusiveness that our computer has said should not be there.

We’re not afraid to admit when we were wrong (currently 25-30% +/- of the the time), projecting college talent, and it’s a little early to be definitive…but this performance had all of us looking back over the college data. Something we’ll be watching. It will be interesting to see what the Cowboys do when Felix Jones is ready…which is a reminder/lesson — how many times have we all seen Felix look sensational in sporadic moments? We’ll see if that is Murray’s fate or not…but you have to bet Jones gets a split with Murray initially.

 — Marshawn Lynch (23 carries for 125 yards and 1 TD, 1 rec for 8 yards) has quietly scored a TD in four straight games, and has snuck into our top-20 highest scoring (PPG) active Fantasy Football RBs YTD. Lynch has a bad match-up this week with BAL, and then pretty smooth sailing with STL-WAS-PHI-STL…before a bit of trouble in the Fantasy playoffs with CHI-SF.

We’ve been skeptics on Lynch (who we like scouting/talent-wise) due to Seattle’s O-Line issues and QB woes…but the data of late is encouraging, especially with a big game against a solid Cowboys run-defense.

  — We’ve been burned by Laurent Robinson (5 rec for 32 yards and 1 TD, 5 targets) too many times in the past to fully endorse him as a hot play with Miles Austin out…and we have plenty of other similar/lesser-loved WRs that we are more excited about. However, we endorse Robinson as a talent…he’s not a fly-by-night WR. We had a very good college rating on him in our computer scouting analysis…with some elite WR tendencies. Several injuries have wiped that big upside away, and we are happy for his renaissance in Dallas…but we have seen these spurts too many times. Buyer beware. As a bye-Week fill-in, I’d certainly take a shot with Austin out, but long-term we are once-bitten, twice-shy (actually 3-4+ times bitten).

 — Did we ever mention that our computer thinks Tavaris Jackson (17-30 for 221 yards, 0 TD/3 INT) has no business being an NFL QB?

 — I want to keep playing the Dallas-Defense with confidence going forward, but we’re a little rattled with some of the computer readings now. Especially, with back-to-back huge running games by Lynch and LeSean McCoy, after being a lock-down run-defense all season prior. They are just a mediocre pass-defense (shutting down Tavaris means little), and if they are suddenly susceptible to the run…we’re nervous. As well, shutting down the Pats a few weeks ago doesn’t seem as impressive as it once did. BUF-WAS-MIA-ARI is a nice stretch upcoming, with some Week-10 hesitancy vs. BUF.

 — We’d love to endorse Doug Baldwin (3 rec for 31 yards, 6 targets) every week…he is a great under-valued talent. However, it is games like this, which cause us to pause. Not Baldwin’s fault, it’s the poor passing-game execution of the Seahawks. Long-term in a deep keeper/Dynasty league, I sit on Baldwin if I can, in hopes of a new QB in 2012.


About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics, and College Football Metrics. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.”

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