Fantasy Football Metrics

Week-8 Colts vs. Titans — Fantasy Football 2011 Game Notes

 tagline — Pierre Garcon, Javon Ringers, Austin Collie, Delone Carter, Chris Johnson, Reggie Wayne, Donald Brown, Fantasy Football, Dynasty Leagues

— We are re-falling in love with Pierre Garcon (7 rec for 66 yards, 15 targets) paired with Curtis Painter. Garcon is averaging 5.2 rec for 83.7 yards per game with Painter playing (from Week-3 on), and has 4 TDs. In the last three games, those numbers have tailed off a bit to 6.0 rec for 49.7 yards per game and NO TDs…but Garcon has been targeted 10.7 times in the past three games. He is the clear favorite of Painter.

Being loved by the current QB is great, but match that with Garcon’s elite level talent…and now you have a story that can hold up over the rest of 2011, as long as Painter is the QB. We had elite-level grades on Garcon coming out of Mt. Union College in 2008. I mentioned to a few clients in the past week — Garcon is like a mini-Hakeem Nicks (a different type receiver completely, but read the following…). Garcon is too strong to be covered by smaller CBs, and too fast/agile to effectively be picked up LBs…not just saying that to be cliche’ — using our internal physical profiling and performance metrics, Garcon could/should be one of the best slot/2nd-receivier options in the NFL. Manning favored Collie in that role, Painter favors Garcon. Reggie Wayne (5 rec for 61 yards, 14 targets) takes the heat as the #1 WR, leaving Garcon to do damage…as he has been.

Garcon has had 3 weaker/non-TD games in-a-row (compared to the two blistering games he had with Painter as the starter) and is probably available at a steep discount. He’s worth taking a roll with for the rest of 2011, especially in a PPR-league. Keep in mind, most that possess Garcon are probably not thinking the same. They see Garcon as more a two-week  flash in the pan from several weeks ago…so find that owner, and don’t overpay.

 — Since the Kenny Britt injury, Damian Williams (4 rec for 60 yards, 5 targets) leads all Titans WRs as the most overall targeted (tied with Lavelle Hawkins), the most red-zone targeted (4), and TDs (2). In the last three games, Williams is tops in yardage with 32.8 ypg. The Titans passing game hasn’t been very exciting, but there is a definite intent to look to Williams as a top weapon…as Nate Washington (4 rec for 34 yards and 1 TD) is good, but cannot handle the coverage as “the main man” WR.


 — Donald Brown (10 carries for 33 yards and 1 TD) may have had the all-important rushing TD, but I thought Delone Carter (9 carries for 46 yards) looked tremendous in this game. Carter was in our top-5 RBs out of the 2011 RB rookie class for the long-term, and we stick by that based on everything we’ve seen so far. Addai’s days are numbered. We love D. Brown, but he’s never put anything consistent together due to injury. We’d like to recommend Carter stronger here for traditional Fantasy Football league pickups, but with the talented D.Brown in the way…and assuming Addai comes back to grab some carries…the enitre Colts RB situation is muddy, and just a flat out gamble, but Carter is a reasonable gamble as the Colts fall further into obscurity.


 — We’ve written about Javon Ringer (14 carries for 60 yards) in greater detail on our home page, and he’s all the rage this week…but what to do about Chris Johnson?. All you can do with Chris Johnson (14 carries for 34 yards) for 2011, if you own him, is sit and wait. He only has vulture trade value…so why give him away, when maybe he flips the switch. That’s doubtful, but what can you really get for CJ right now? For those looking to swoop in on a downtrodden CJ, it makes sense…but do not overpay. Normally, CJ is worth a 9-10 (on a 10-point scale), and he is down to about a 2-3 in real usefulness for the rest of 2011…but current owners still mostly have the hope previously referred to, so they still want a 6-7 value in return for CJ. Don’t out-think yourself here…7 games played, 6.5 horrible outputs for CJ, if a switch were to be thrown, you’d see some sign of it (and we’ve seen none, like everyone else)? If you can get him as a 2-3 value, awesome lottery ticket..but owners are afraid to sell low, so they will want a 5-7 value in return, don’t do it at that level.



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