Fantasy Football Metrics

2014 Week-7 Dynasty-Fantasy Recap: Jags vs. Browns (10/19/2014)

Twitter @FFMetrics

– Just a quick note for anyone bemoaning the Browns-DST recommendation for Week-7: What else do you want? (1) They had three picks and two sacks! Yes, you want to see a shutout delivered, but the guy NFL analysts spent the entire week crying for the Browns to pay as a true franchise QB, Brian Hoyer, played like…Brian Hoyer…and was terrible, and had a pick giving JAC the ball in the red-zone, and there was a CLE fumble that did the same. Don’t blame the Browns-DST because the offense chose this week to be inept. (2) What other DST would you have liked? There were no defensive TDs scored this week THU-SUN…unless I missed one. All DSTs disappointed.

That message above was me yelling at me…

Should you play them against OAK this week? I’d say so. All you really want is a juiced up chance at a bad/weak QB with higher odds for a pick-six, hopefully combined with a weak running game. You’re as good with the Browns-DST as anything else for Week-8.

– I know. You’d have rather had the Jaguars-DST from Sunday! Six-points/no TDs by the Browns against the Jags is inexcusable for a ‘team on the rise’. If the Browns make Brian Hoyer (16-41 for 215 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) their franchise QB (and they will), it will not be wise. He’s better than Johnny Manziel, but not a QB you should move forward with into the future. You rent Hoyer, not own. 

Hoyer has completed less than 50% of his passes the past three games (45 of 95), and is barely 55% on the season. The Browns are on the watch list for DST starts against…because of Hoyer.

If you were getting excited by the improving Jags-DST, you should have killed that noise when IDP ILB Paul Posluszny (12 tackles, 5 solo, 1 sack) was lost for the season in this game. I mention it because most will see backup J.T. Thomas (7 tackles, 6 solo) listed as the new starter, and wonder if he’ll be Posluszny 2.0. He won’t be. The name to watch here is the Jags rookie poach from Jets: Jeremiah George. If he gets a shot…watchout. He will be a number-grabber on tackles. That dude is going 150% all the time. He’s not Ryan Shazier or Paul Worrilow or Jamie Collins talented, but he’s pretty good/decent.

– I have to say, I was satisfied to see Denard Robinson (22 carries for 127 yards and 1 TD, 1 target) take control of the starting job (at least for this week). I had been howling about him all preseason. Now, a pay day…finally. I also thought this was a stupid draft pick by the Jags, and still do. RBs are a dime-a-dozen at his size, and Denard is not great; he’s just better than anyone on the Jags until Toby Gerhart gets 100%…and then it is a split.

Fall in love with Denard, but not too much…the problem all season has been a terrible O-Line, and an offense that cannot get close to scoring position on its own. He’s the starter now, so that’s FF-something.

– The past two weeks I thought the Jags run-defense was really looking good, but I didn’t expect them to totally squash the Browns running attack like they did. I’m a Ben Tate (16 carries for 36 yards, 1 rec. for -2 yards on 2 targets) buyer in a non-PPR, a little cooler in a PPR. He’s getting 15+ carries in this offense each week, and I don’t think he’ll lose a job to Isaiah Crowell (7 carries for 18 yards, 1 rec. for 5 yards on 2 targets)…as much as football people want him to, because they love Crowell…because someone told them to in the preseason.

Andrew Hawkins (5 rec. for 112 yards on 9 targets) is a really terrible #1 WR, but until Josh Gordon returns, he is their #1 targeted WR. Speaking of Gordon…I’m not 100% sure Gordon + Hoyer is going to work like a charm right away. More because of Hoyer. I have nothing to base that on, per se. Just a thought that Hoyer is a very flawed passer. I think dump offs to Hawkins suits his skills nicely.

 

R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here: The Machine via FFM

 **If you enjoy the free content on Fantasy Football Metrics.com please consider making your next Amazon purchase through our website/link partnership with Amazon. You’re going to buy something at Amazon anyway, there is no extra charge — help give us a little love! Feel free to save/bookmark this link in your favorites and you will have it for all future Amazon purchases. Thanks for your consideration! Link — Amazon.com: Online Shopping for Electronics, Apparel, Computers, Books, DVDs & more **

 

2014 Week-7 Dynasty-Fantasy Recap: Bills vs. Vikings (10/19/2014)

Twitter @FFMetrics

I went 4-2 on wagers this week, which is a success number you can make a living at. One of my two losses was a game I loved: The Bills to cover 5.5-6.5 against Minnesota…they didn’t.

Let me just say two things to vent before I get into the million FF-items from this game:

(1) Buffalo not covering in this game makes me cry. They were 10x the better team over the Vikings. I predicted on this very website, not 48 hours ago: Teddy Bridgewater at least two picks and 5 or more sacks. Both came true. What I didn’t count on was every RB Buffalo had getting hurt in this game. In addition, plenty of ridiculous penalties for defensive holding (you almost cannot bet football anymore because games shift on key 3rd-down stops, but 40 yards from the action a DB put a pinky on a WR to give the offense a fresh set of downs).

(2) I was counting on the Vikings being horrible, and they were–this is the worst offense in the NFL, no joke. However, Buffalo is potentially the second worst. Kyle is a statue waiting to be sacked (and he was 5x). Thanks to Buffalo and Minnesota…two weeks in a row for taking food out of my mouth. 

 — The critical takeaway from this game, and we touched on part of it last week: The Minnesota Vikings have the worst offensive game plan and coaching in the NFL…worse than Atlanta or Buffalo or Jacksonville or Oakland. They are taking a rookie QB and making him a 5-7 step drop QB with a bad O-Line, and begging him to get sacked every play. If he tries to get the ball out quicker…he’s going to chalk up pick-sixes. Any DST with a decent front-four pass-rush is going to be a huge FF-start against them. YOU WANT THE TAMPA BAY DST next week if you are troubled at DST, or need a jolt in a must-win or season done situation. Five more sacks and high pick-six potential next week. I don’t care what you think about the Bucs-Defense, they have a good front line, and they are going to feast on the Vikings.

The lesser version of this: The Buffalo Bills offense is in serious trouble minus Fred Jackson (3 carries for 12 yards, 3 rec. for 16 yards on 3 targets) and C.J. Spiller (1 carry for 53 yards…really? Of course, he gets hurt on a beautiful 53-yard run.). Even with those guys in…Kyle Orton (31-43 for 283 yards, 2 TD/1 INT) is begging to be sacked. The last two weeks, Orton has been sacked five-times each game. YOU WANT THE NY JETS DST next week if you are, well…see disclaimer from last section.

 — When we look in a few weeks, and see Teddy Bridgewater (15-26 for 157 yards, 1 TD/2 INT) has a nightmare rookie season developing, don’t blame Teddy; Minnesota fans. You can blame the most incompetent coach in the NFL, possibly in the history of football (sorry, Rich Kotite): Norv Turner. He is sending Bridgewater out on suicide missions on each pass…forcing him to drop in the pocket, and throw downfield, when he should switch to short passes to Cordarrelle Patterson (2 rec. for 9 yards and 1 TD, 1 rush for 3 yards) and Jarius Wright (4 rec. for 60 yards on 4 targets).

Mike Zimmer is to blame for allowing this to happen on his watch.

NFL announcers, you are as idiotic as Norv Turner’s game plan. You do the same zombie commentary on Norv every week…

I watched the Bills-Vikings games, and I am smiling as the Vikings offense goes nowhere each play (because I bet heavy on the Bills). I mean play after play of nonsense. Maybe 4-5-6 times in the game something ‘good’ happened on offense on a random play. As soon as anything ‘good’ happens, the announcers are racing to the microphone to proclaim, “Oh, that’s Norv Turner dialing it up.” Look, I’m no math major, but if the Vikings ran about 55 plays, and 50 of them are total nonsense nothing, a study in idiocy…so let’s not go crazy for Norv when the fullback runs for 21 yards on one of the five plays that somehow worked out of 55…and the team scores one offensive TD, and loses yet another game in embarrassing offensive fashion.

How many football and Fantasy analysts sold you on Kyle Rudolph, and Adrian Peterson, and Cordarrelle Patterson because of the mystical Norv Turner? I sold you on Cord in spite of Norv. I told you CP’s so good, even Norv couldn’t F it up. I stand corrected.

Do what you want with Patterson. I hold in Dynasty. I acquire super-cheap in Dynasty. I have almost no use in redraft. There isn’t even an attempt to get Patterson the ball…mostly because they send the receivers deep, and force Bridgewater to find something, and he usually gets sacked or near-sacked waiting for someone to get open. Patterson is Torrey Smith. Whatever you think of Torrey…that’s how you should value Cordarrelle in redraft. Hope…but against all odds.

Patterson’s TD in this game was so simple. He lined up as a quasi WR/RB. Bridgewater did a one-step drop, quick pass in the backfield, Patterson caught it, and dodged traffic for a short score.

They could run that play every down.

Even if 11 defenders keyed on CP, the outcome would be better over time than the normal offense.

NFL Coaches don’t change, so Patterson is in FF-prison, and I don’t know when he’ll get out. I led you to the water, and made you drink. It’s going to cost many of us reading our seasons as he killed us after Week-1, but we kept trying to hope each week…for weeks. Swinging for the fences…I just took a 3rd-strike looking on a curve looking for a fastball. It happens. It still doesn’t feel good.

My only consolation: I’m not pushing Kirk Cousins types on you, and then being absolutely humiliated with how bad the talent call is weeks later. We all know CP is ‘Antone Smith north’. It’s not the talent…it’s the coaching/lack of touches. Anyone can call for a bubble screen and hand-off to the WR 2-3-4 times a game. The Rams treat Tavon Austin more special than Patterson.

 —  Yes, of course it is Bryce Brown time…

…maybe.

An FFM-refresh: I think Bryce Brown is possibly the most all-around gifted physical specimen of a RB prospect as there is lurking in the shadows of the NFL. An Adrian Peterson a-like. However, his ‘head’ is in total question. His motivations, etc. are all up for grabs. I assume him being inactive most of 2014, after being traded for (highly) in the offseason is not because he is a hard-working gem of a fellow. That being said, the Bills are up against the wall. They are not winning with Breast Cancer Awareness Dixon (13 carries for 51 yards, 3 rec. for 15 yards on 4 targets) taking 15+ touches a game. Bryce Brown can change NFL/FF fortunes…he may also be a total mess.

Just recall. Brown as a 7th-round draft pick flyer pf Philly in 2012, who barely played in college due to his own issues, and was a former top high school RB in the nation…he kicked around getting a few carries here and there early in his 2012 rookie season. LeSean McCoy, who was fading pre-Chip Kelly, got hurt mid-season…and Brown was a force-start for a dying Philly team (at the time). Brown’s debut as a starter: 178 yards rushing and 2 TDs on 19 carries…and four catches for 11 yards. In his follow-up game, 159 yards rushing, 2 more TDs, 4 more catches for 14 yards. *This was the Bryce Brown Buffalo traded for…the Adrian Peterson a-like Bryce (who also may be as much of a mess off the field as well, we can only speculate).

The following week after Brown’s first two explosion games…he was squashed by a then stellar Tampa Bay run defense (12 carries for 6 yards). He fumbled a couple of times, and got dog-housed…because that’s what you do with amazing talent, young, raw RBs. The second they screw up, you pull them to make sure they are super-uptight the next time they touch the ball. It’s just good logic. LeSean McCoy and Adrian Peterson have had fumble issues…they get a pass. 7th-round picks who are as talented as those guys, get the benching and carry a ball all week to the cafeteria treatment.

Be excited about Bryce Brown, but we don’t know where his head is at. If he gets touches…he’ll take a lot of touches when they get a load of his skills. Dixon is going to start, and Dixon is a fullback playing RB. Dixon’s a Peyton Hillis talent…Hillis of today, not that one Cleveland season.

 — Congrats to those who sat on Jerick McKinnon (19 carries for 103 yards, 2 rec. for -4 yards on 4 targets) a few weeks ago. You have a #1 RB on your hands for sure. The Matt Asiata flu (6 carries for 24 yards, 1 rec. for 13 yards on 2 targets) threat is over. It’s all McKinnon. Beware, in this offense, McKinnon is Bishop Sankey-ish. What profit is it to be the best RB, getting 15+ touches on a team with a garbage QB/O-Line/O-C? In the era of ‘My RBs are killing me’…McKinnon should work fine.

 — I keep saying it every week: IDP Anthony Barr (10 tackles, 8 solo, 1 PD, 2 fumble recoveries) looks better every game. He’s looked great again this week. He’s a threat for 8+ tackles a game with a 50% chance at a sack as the year goes on…

 —  Chad Greenway (15 tackles, 7 solo, 1 PD) came back from a few games missed with a fury. I’m not 100% sure I am that excited about this being a new trend, because he was lost in this new defense early on. However, he is a proven tackler, so I’d have to bet more ‘for’ than ‘against’.

 — I like Kyle Orton because he is smart enough to work Sammy Watkins (9 rec. for 122 yards and 2 TDs on 14 targets). He paused against Revis Island last week, which was savvy. In the next five weeks, Watkins has the Jets secondary twice…FYI.

 

R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here: The Machine via FFM

 **If you enjoy the free content on Fantasy Football Metrics.com please consider making your next Amazon purchase through our website/link partnership with Amazon. You’re going to buy something at Amazon anyway, there is no extra charge — help give us a little love! Feel free to save/bookmark this link in your favorites and you will have it for all future Amazon purchases. Thanks for your consideration! Link — Amazon.com: Online Shopping for Electronics, Apparel, Computers, Books, DVDs & more **

 

Week-8: Fantasy-Dynasty Early Waiver-Trade-Sit-Start Concepts…(Update 1pm ET MON)

Twitter @FFMetrics

*See note in red below if you have Falcons-related issues ahead… 

– The Chiefs-DST is one of the hot grabs for Week-8: Austin Davis, Geno Smith, Kyle Orton the next three weeks.  

 — Colt McCoy = Death for all receiver options on Washington. You got another TD for the 2nd-straight week with Pierre Garcon. In a redraft, flip this for something decent if you can!

 — There should be a lot of Percy Harvin ‘buzz’ from the Jets this week, as they try to deflect criticism from this horrific trade. There should be a lot of ‘fluff’ on how well he is fitting in, and how he’ll get 42 touches each week, etc. Mid-week may be a peak time to trade him. It’s not crazy to hold him for a week to allow him to actually ‘try’ for a week to show up critics, and have a big game…then make your move. 

 — The Falcons are horrible. The offense is dying. Matt Ryan is dying with it…or leading it. The Falcons are even more horrible on the road. Their next four weeks are home-BYE-away-away. The home game is with a top defensive team in Detroit. Matt Ryan and Julio Jones may finish off your FF-2014 chances over the next four weeks. If things aren’t going well…and you’re counting on them for a turn. I don’t think they’re going to help as much as you might hope for the next four weeks.

*Even better: The ‘home’ game next week is in England!!

 — Torrey Smith is starting to perk up now. With the extra attention shifting to Steve Smith, finally things are opening up for Torrey. He is worth a WR3-WR4 value look.

– I’m a big Doug Baldwin fan, but be careful here. I’ve been defending Baldwin for years, predicting his day to come…BE CAREFUL. Seattle is not a high passing output offense. Rare that SEA is down by 18 points that often, and thus scrambling back into the game. Be optimistic, but this is not money in the bank…just like Cecil Shorts, Andre Holmes, and Mohamed Sanu did not become stars off their one great week last week. Baldwin is not a #1 WR…he’s a great #3. 

 — Tre Mason will be a smoking hot RB pickup this week in many redrafts. I get it. RBs are dropping like flies. I want nothing to do with the Rams RB situation if I can help it. It’s Mason this week, and then Zac Stacy the next, then Trey Watts, then Eric Dickerson.

 — Denard Robinson on the other hand…he’s something I’m a little more excited about. I’ve been ultra-excited about him since the preseason. He’s exponentially better than Storm Johnson. He and Toby Gerhart make a nice thunder and lightning combo, so beware when Gerhart is healthy, but I’d be excited until then. The schedule ahead is not bad at all.

This is still the Jags, so I’m a skeptic, but I like what he’s doing…back since the preseason.

 — I’ve been ringing an alarm on Gio Bernard all year…on how poorly he is running the ball. It’s going to catch up with him. I think there is a risk he becomes a full split with Jeremy Hill. Minus one big run last week, Gio is barely getting over 3.0 yards per carry this season.

 — Your RBs are killing you? What about the second most important RB on the Colts…Trent Richardson?

*Five of his last six games with 14 or more carries

*Four of last five games with four or more targets

*He’s scored a TD in two of his last four games

He’s getting consistent touches…as is Ahmad Bradshaw. The schedule ahead is favorable for the ROS.

 — OK, now I believe Jerick McKinnon is the full starting RB for Minnesota. Note, the Vikings offense blows…so not many scoring opps.

With that full anti-Vikes vibe, I give up…I’ve started to redraft ditch Cordarrelle Patterson for greener pastures (if nice ones exist). Teams with 3-4, 4-3 teams, etc. records don’t have time to wait. I don’t think we’ll get much of anything this year with CP watching this offense the past few weeks. There is no attempt to get him the ball, and the Vikings have an unstable rookie QB getting sacked 5-8 times a game. This is a sink hole opening up. 

I’m pro-Cordarrelle long-term, but this season is a nightmare…the Vikings offense is the worst in the NFL, to me visually, worse than Jacksonville or Oakland. It’s not the players, it’s the coaches. I pray Norv Turner is removed at year’s end (or sooner). 

 — Anthony Barr is getting better/hotter as an IDP every week. He got his first double-digit tackle game, and he is a threat for a sack every game as well.

 — All the Bills RB injuries has to mean Bryce Brown gets a serious look. No way, Buffalo is clawing into the playoff hunt with ‘Boobie’ Dixon. He’s going to be a dud versus the Jets run-defense next week. Bryce, on the other hand…

 

R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here: The Machine via FFM

 **If you enjoy the free content on Fantasy Football Metrics.com please consider making your next Amazon purchase through our website/link partnership with Amazon. You’re going to buy something at Amazon anyway, there is no extra charge — help give us a little love! Feel free to save/bookmark this link in your favorites and you will have it for all future Amazon purchases. Thanks for your consideration! Link — Amazon.com: Online Shopping for Electronics, Apparel, Computers, Books, DVDs & more **

 

We All Would Get Fired For This…

Cincinnati down 27-0 with 1:14 left.

Andy Dalton…the franchise QB…still in the game.

Dalton still passing.

Dalton throws a deep ball, and a D-Lineman rolls up into his knees, and buckles him to the ground. 

Fortunately, Dalton was turning away, and bent down instead of taking it head on and ending his season. 

If you or I did something this stupid at work…leaving a franchise QB in a dead game, still throwing the ball, we would be fired rapidly…and deserve it. 

In the NFL…this is normal. 

 

Bryce Brown?

Fred Jackson looks like he’s injured his groin, may miss a week or two (guess).

C.J. Spiller then just went off on a cart (shoulder).

It may finally be Bryce Brown (inactive today) time! However, vs. NYJ and BYE next two weeks!!

 

 

Week-7 Projection Updates Posted (12:30pm ET)

 

Denard Robinson Starting Today…

FYI

 

2014 Week-6 Dynasty-Fantasy Recap: Dolphins vs. Packers (10/5/2014)

Twitter @FFMetrics

– As I re-watched this game, I am pulling back the reigns just a hair on any Jarvis Landry (6 rec. for 75 yards and 1 TD on 8 targets) uber-excitement just yet. Definitely one to considering securing in a redraft to see how this unravels, but one to keep on the bench for the moment (unless little other options). I want to see another card revealed before we know for sure here. Re-watching this game…one target was a tipped ball at the line, accredited to him as closest target. One of Ryan Tannehill’s (20-31 for 244 yards, 2 TD/2 INT) picks was toward Landry in a crowd. One target was a short pass on the very last play turned into a rugby toss around before mercifully ending. Be a little giddy, but not fully giddy just yet. We’ve seen Rishard Matthews (NFL GMs WAKE UP!!!) have a smoking hot game (way better than this), and then go back into the witness protection program.

The rookie WR to get excited about is Davante Adams (6 rec. for 77 yards on 8 targets). The first two passes of this game were to Adams. He’s open a ton as the Packers’ passing game is on fire. He works with a QB who is arguably playing the best football of his career…and/or of any QB right now. Adams is as good/better than Landry as a talent…and plays with an infinitely better QB. He’s about to become a secure PPR WR3/Flex start…I just want to see one more of these for sure, as well.

 — Lamar Miller (14 carries for 53 yards and 1 TD, 3 rec. for 40 yards on 3 targets) is arguably a top-10 PPR and non-PPR RB the rest of 2014. He looks very good on tape, and has no real threat behind him to take touches.

…but there is a problem…a problem that will halt that top-10 ROS status.

The problem?

Weeks 10-14…facing DET, BUF, DEN, NYJ, BAL. Also known as the #2, #1, #4, #7, and #8 toughest run defenses in the NFL today (by rush yards allowed). You might want to consider trading him hot in a redraft if you can wiggle into something equal or better.

 — Green Bay’s defense is getting gashed by the run (worst in the league yards allowed per game), but that is glossing over a pretty stout pass defense (7 TD/9 INT allowed this season). It’s also a defense that has kept opponents under 20 offensive points per game in four of six games so far this season.

 

R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here: The Machine via FFM

 **If you enjoy the free content on Fantasy Football Metrics.com please consider making your next Amazon purchase through our website/link partnership with Amazon. You’re going to buy something at Amazon anyway, there is no extra charge — help give us a little love! Feel free to save/bookmark this link in your favorites and you will have it for all future Amazon purchases. Thanks for your consideration! Link — Amazon.com: Online Shopping for Electronics, Apparel, Computers, Books, DVDs & more **

 

Week-7 Wagers…

Time to get back over 60% again (fell to 59 and change YTD after last week’s debacle)…

 

Indianapolis (-3.0) hosting Cincy

This is the bet of the week…and it may be the bet of the year. Or maybe the game below this is…

You get Indianapolis playing at home with an offense firing on all cylinders, and a defense that has allowed 21 or fewer offensive points in its last four games. The only two losses they have this season have come against the two best teams in football: Denver and Philadelphia (both by one score). This is a top-flight contender ascending…facing a team that has potentially peaked/was potentially a fraud all along.

Indy having home field is a nice bump, but I also get them facing a Cincy team without A.J. Green, and a defense that has allowed 30 or more offensive points in its last two games. Cincy also has two linebackers (Maualuga and Lamur) set to miss the games as well. I think this is a Cincy defense that has been figured out, and an offense hamstrung missing AJG and Tyler Eifert, with a weaker running game.

I think Indy may run away with this, and the over/under of 50.0 is in play if it dips under 50.

I will put between 4.0-8.0 wager points on this game.

 

Buffalo (-5.5) hosting Minnesota

I think Minnesota is in huge trouble in this game…a terrible matchup.

Why is this a terrible matchup? You can thank my computer for this one: Minnesota is playing well when facing the worst pass rushes in the NFL. They have beaten/crushed the Rams (least amount of sacks in the NFL…1.0) and Atlanta (3rd least amount of sacks…5.0). They were handled by Detroit (most sacks in the NFL…20.0) and smoked by New England (tied for 3rd most sacks…18.0).

In fact, against DET and NE…the Vikings threw 7 picks total.

Against low sack team, New Orleans, Minnesota hung around. Against higher sack team Green Bay…they got smoked.

NE: 6 sacks of Cassel. GB: 6 sacks of Ponder. DET: 8 sacks of Bridgewater. 

The Bills have the second (tied) most sacks in the NFL (19.0). They will sack Teddy Bridgewater at least five-times. They will also force him to fumble at least once. They will pick him off at least twice. The Vikings have crowed all week about Bridgewater getting the ball out quicker to combat this…a pick-six is coming on a jumped route as sure as I type this.

I will put between 4.0-8.0 wager points on this game.

 

Kansas City (+3.5) at San Diego

I think Kansas City wins outright here.

With a week to prepare, and the improbable run the Chargers are on…mostly against junk teams, I’ll take +3.5 just in case, but I think KC wins.

I forget the number, but I think Andy Reid is like 13-2 coming off a BYE. The Chiefs have smoked MIA and NE this year, and lost close to DEN and SF the past four weeks. They are a much better team than given credit.

The extra bump here for me is: San Diego has CBs Brandon Flowers and Jason Verrett banged up. I will wait to see the inactives for sure before I go between 1.0-3.0 wager points (depending on who is inactive at CB).

 

Baltimore (-6.5) hosting Atlanta

Atlanta is now 1-10 the past two seasons on the road. The win was an OT one last year vs. Buffalo. In those 10 road losses, they have lost by six or more points eight-times. Atlanta is secretly one of the worst teams in the NFL today.

Baltimore is one of the better teams. They are the team I never have been right on. Every time I proclaim them dead, they rally to the playoffs…or Super Bowl. I pick with them, and they flop. By virtue of me never being right in them…don’t make this bet. I have assured ATL now wins by 30 by me going wth them.

I will bet 1.0 wager point on the Ravens…maybe, maybe not. My other fear is Antone Smith comes to life fully…and then a lost 1.0 wager is worth watching that!

 

Chicago (-3.0) hosting Miami

This is just a gut feel game, so buyer beware. I think Chicago is amassing one of the best teams in football, led by their secretly, rapidly ‘getting good’ defense. I take Chicago at home, with Miami traveling up north.

Miami is a sneaky good team too, but I think this new Bears philosophy on defense is like the Eagles…one that is trying to win, not playing not-to lose. That type of action means Ryan Tannehill throws at least two picks. Just betting 1.0 wager point on my hunch.

 

Denver (-7.0) hosting San Francisco

If all goes well during the day, then I will play Denver to bounce San Francisco.

Against teams that went to the playoffs last year, the 49ers went 0-3 against them in 2013. They are 1-1 this year if you assume ARI and DAL are headed to the playoffs. They are a shaky road team against better teams (who isn’t?).

Denver went 3-1 against playoffs teams at home last year, and are 3-0 this year (if you assume IND, KC, ARI headed to the playoffs). Every one of their home wins against playoff caliber teams was by 7.0 or more in 2013 and 2014.

The 49ers are missing Navarro Bowman, and now Patrick Willis will miss this game as well, and various other key players are questionable. I’ll just take one of the best teams in the NFL at home. If this line dips under 7.0…go get it!

Good Luck on whatever you are playing tomorrow!

 

 

2014 Week-6 Dynasty-Fantasy Recap: Bengals vs. Panthers (10/5/2014)

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– I really had one pressing reason to re-watch this game in detail…it was a desire to watch all the throws to Mohamed Sanu (11 rec. for 120 yards and 1 TD on 15 targets). I was curious as to how this was going to look when I isolated my attention on him. Last season, when Julio Jones and Roddy White went down…Harry Douglas was a ‘thing’ for a game or two. Douglas had huge targets for a bit, but declining output as teams adjusted to him…and he went from mid-season salvation to ‘meh’. I wondered if that’s what I would see with Sanu. Now, Sanu is different than Harry D., because Sanu is superior in talent…and we’ve been fans of his since the 2012 NFL Draft. We had to jump ship when Sanu would flash…and then get banged up, and then opened the door for Marvin Jones. For this Carolina ‘break out’ game  (on paper)…was this going to be a scenario where mediocre WR meets no other real targets on the team, so he is over-targeted, or would this be a sign that Sanu can really hang as a #1 WR?

I think the answer leans more toward the ‘could hang as #1 WR’, which means good things even when A.J. Green returns, and Sanu goes to his rightful ‘#2″ role.

Sanu was pretty impressive in this contest. He acted/looked like a #1 WR. He benefited from the OT period to get four more targets, but that also doesn’t count the few times he was targeted during regulation, and Carolina committed various penalties negating it. Get this: When the defense played back, Andy Dalton (34-44 for 323 yards, 2 TD/2 INT) would fire a quick pass, and let Sanu roll with it. However, when the CBs pressed Sanu, they’d try to beat the press coverage deeper down field. Quick, someone get Norv Turner on the phone because this concept has escaped him after his 400 years in professional football. This game was really encouraging for Sanu going forward, and he has a mostly favorable schedule ahead. I’ve been a cautious buyer, but I am an excited buyer now. We are upping his projections today.

 — I cannot figure out Carolina…the NFL team. They have gutty wins (and a tie) over mostly good teams. They have been smacked around by PIT and BAL. Had they lost to Cincy, they would have dropped to 1-3 in their four games with GB-SEA-NO-PHI ahead. After re-watching this game: How they tied Cincy, at Cincy, is a mystery to me. Carolina is like Detroit…they can beat any team…they can lose to any team, on any given week.

This also may be a case of where Cincy was placed on a throne they didn’t belong on. I think we should all be very wary that the bottom is about to fallout of the Bengals-Defense. Mike Zimmer leaving is starting to catch up to them now. 

In the past four weeks the Panthers have allowed 37-38-24-37 points. It’s a bad defense all the sudden as well…facing Rodgers-Wilson-Brees-Foles the next four weeks.

 — Bengals IDP Reggie Nelson (11 tackles, 9 solo, 1 TFL, 2 PD) has played 96.7% of the teams defensive snaps, and is one of five DBs who have four ‘Quality Starts’ (for Fantasy) year-to-date. ‘Quality Starts’ is our own internal number/measuring stick we are messing with to find the right combo of stats to judge ‘FF-quality’ in a week, and a way to look for which IDPs are consistent (not just riding one big/crazy stat output).

 

R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here: The Machine via FFM

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