Fantasy Football Metrics

Fantasy-Dynasty RB News All Over on Black Friday…

Twitter @FFMetrics

 — Ray Rice reinstated, and I have no idea who would sign him, nor how fast he’d be up to speed…pure risk/reward that I am more against than for (for FF 2014). Dynasty: you can scoop him now, and then try to trade on the news before he plays.

 — Latavius Murray doubtful…Marcel Reece could be the shock play of the week.

 – Jerick McKinnon likely out. Matt Asiata back in play…and who knows what Ben Tate will do?

Updated FFM Week 13 Projections tonight around 9-10pm ET.

 

2014 Week 13 Dynasty-Fantasy Recap: Eagles vs. Cowboys (11/27/2014)

Twitter @FFMetrics

This was a butt kicking of biblical proportions…

The Division lead on the line. National TV game at Dallas. The Cowboys favored in Vegas by -3.0 points. With all that the Cowboys were destroyed. More on why in a second…

Before I write about what has me fired up from this game, let me begin with Mark Sanchez (20-29 for 217 yards, 1 TD/0 INT)…to get that out of the way. Three things:

1) Sanchez played a very good, competent game. He did exactly what you want him to do…’don’t mess it up’. I keep harping on this self-proclaimed truism: If Sanchez/Philly gets off to a good start in a particular game, things will be fine. If adversity strikes early, then Sanchez is in danger of folding like tissue paper.

Philly/Sanchez is falling into the same pattern over the last few weeks…hot start, could score 50 by half-time, but after the first a couple of blows are delivered Sanchez starts stalling on drives as defenses figure out some things….which leads to a bunch of missed opportunities leading to a rash of FGs. Eventually, the game becomes insurmountable for the Eagles’ foe…but Philly keeps racking yards and points almost to the final gun. When Green Bay turned the tables on this, Sanchez had no answer.

This will not be discussed with the national football media, because they went from Sanchez is a god after Carolina, to quietly walking away from him after Green Bay…and now they’ll be back to ‘Sanch-ize’. Doing fine against Carolina, Dallas, and Tennessee’s pass defense is not legendary, but it fits the national football media’s pro-Sanchez/anti-Foles narrative so it will be portrayed as ‘Sanchez the great’ (two weeks removed from ‘Sanchez is not the answer’ post-GB game).

Sanchez is going to work for FF-purposes on Philly in a good matchup, but he is not a future franchise QB…someone, maybe Philly, is going to make a mistake in 2015 hoping that he is. 

2) I mentioned something lightly the past few days on FFM, but to people at my local Starbucks a lot: That Week 12 NYG-DAL game where Odell Beckham went nuts, and Eli Manning looked competent…we will all remember that game for the ‘the sick catch’, but I remember it as…”Why are the Cowboys unable or unwilling to cover OBJ on every play?” Beckham was more wide-open from one play to the next…how could Dallas not adjust? For the same reason the Bears could not stop Calvin Johnson on Thanksgiving. If you are going to play a softer zone to keep things in front of you as a defense, you are opening things up to an easy ‘pitch & catch’ drubbing if your offense cannot keep the opposing QB off the field.

Dallas has no pass rush versus decent O-Lines, and they struggle to stop the run as well…they are forced to play a ‘bend but don’t break’ style. They are forced to cheat against the run. They needed to control the pace running the ball (but couldn’t). Same thing in the Chicago game…Matt Stafford goes from floundering most all season, and Calvin was kinda un-Calvin-like…to both totally awesome vs. the Bears. Some of it was their obvious talents, but the defense has a lot to do with it as Calvin makes his 6-7-8-9th+ catches in the game with no one within 3-4-5 yards of him.

Dallas tried to stop the run, and hoped to keep the passing game in front of them…they ran out of fingers to plug the leaking wall…and Chip Kelly is a genius. Stafford and Sanchez looked like gods on Thanksgiving, and they played fine, but the opposing defensive game plan gave them a major stat-boost.

3) Next week, if Sanchez is squashed by Seattle’s defense…the story will have to turn again. A Philly loss, and a Dallas win next week means a Week 15 re-match between PHI-DAL…for the division lead again. If Sanchez mows down Seattle, I will be shocked…and I will have to let off the gas on the anti-Sanchez movement just a bit. If Seattle takes down Philly, then it will be the same Sanchez vibe as after the Green Bay game.

Now to the real reason why Philly won…

 — Next week, you will see a battle of the two best defenses in the NFL—Seattle at Philadelphia. The world walks away from Thanksgiving Day football patting the Seahawks on the head…proclaiming them ‘back’ as that menacing defense from 2013. Hey, humiliating Colin Kaepernick doesn’t take a major effort…nor squashing Arizona without Larry Fitzgerald, and featuring Andre Ellington. We all know Seattle has a good-great defense that’s ramping up with Bobby Wagner back. However, lost in all the Sanchez ass-kissing this week will be the fact that thw Philadelphia Eagles defense was, and is, sensational.

I have been the Philly-D’s biggest cheerleader and defender since Week 2 of 2013…but I didn’t think THIS would happen: Tony Romo (18-29 for 199 yards, 0 TD/2 INT) held under 200 yards passing with no TDs and 2 INTs. Demarco Murray (20 carries for 73 yards and 1 TD, 6 rec. for 40 yards on 6 targets) less than 100 yards rushing…and Dallas held to 10 points. I’m not shocked by it, because we’ve seen this time and again with Philly, and Seattle—they can toy with opponents, and give up occasional big plays…but usually when they want to—they’ll ‘step on’ opposing offenses. Philly got rocked by Aaron Rodgers a few weeks ago…Seattle was humiliated by Philip Rivers earlier this season—things happen on occasion vs. really good QBs. More times than not, these defenses will crush opponents as they see fit.

…only everyone acknowledges it with Seattle, while almost no one does with Philly. The best you get from the analysts now is “Hey, Philly plays good D at times.” The Philly-D is the Nick Foles of NFL (and FF) defenses…no credit, always getting discredited as ‘a joke’.

Where was this great Dallas O-Line that was the wave of the future in the NFL? Philly had four sacks, and held Dallas to 3.7 yards per carry. “Build your team via the O-Line like Dallas,” everyone has been chattering. Everyone is missing the trend that Philly is showing. An O-Line is critical, and should be a top 2-3 priority… I agree. What’s lost, as I have been talking about for weeks, is that defenses can be radically effective by playing uber-aggressive…AND giving up occasional big plays.

Everyone is so stuck in the 1970s that they cannot see this new path—why can’t you be aggressive to pressure QBs, trying to force turnovers all the time? It sounds simple, every teams professes a desire to do that, but it’s your fault NFL teams don’t do it more. You, as fans, are so ‘piss in your pants’ worried about giving up a big play that you would rather your team die from a thousand paper cuts instead. You prefer noble deaths compared to frantic ones. Actually, you aren’t ever happy with your team…you complain about anything less than perfection…or fear a ‘shoe to drop’ ahead. You do the same with your Fantasy teams. It’s an inbred football mindset, because the only people who piss in their pants more than you about the ‘big play’ given up are NFL coaches and media.

When you play a radical style, you will give up occasional big plays and big yardage totals (when you play a radical FF style you might occasionally go down in flames too). I hear it every week on ESPN and NBC and the NFL Network, “Philly can’t keep winning because the turnover trend is going to kill them.” Analysts cry that the Eagles have a lot of offensive turnovers, and then think they are lucky on all their heavy defensive turnovers…and that the defensive ones won’t last. The Eagles do have a lot of traditionally ‘bad’/odd turnover numbers…they also have a lot of wins as well.

San Fran makes a run at the Super Bowl a few years ago…”You gotta have a mobile QB for the future!” ‘they’ say.

Seattle wins a Super Bowl…”You gotta have tall, physical CBs to win in the NFL,” ‘they’ cry.

Dallas is hot this year (winners of one whole game against a team with a winning record)…”You gotta build around your O-Line,” ‘they’ pounce.

HOWEVER…Philly is 16-4 in their last 20 regular season games…”They can’t win giving up all those big plays.” OR “They can’t win with upside-down time of possession.” OR “They can’t keep up all those defensive turnovers and blocked kicks.” OR “They can’t win with Nick Foles at QB.”

80.0% winning percentage in their last 20 games…two of the losses with a chance to win, at/near the goal-line late.

When you are stuck in the 1900s…making sure there are four passes before shooting (Coach Dale…anyone?), then you look at Philly as ‘all wrong’. When you see them as ‘all wrong’, then you have to create reasons/excuses why it is happening—you can never give credit. Chip Kelly is trying to tear down the football establishment. In return, the established powers that be will try to tear him down for destroying their establishment.

You will go on this ride with the media if you do not shake them out of you mind…because they are poisoning you on this on a weekly basis.

The Eagles have the #1 or #2 best defense in the NFL…but not according to your Grandma’s NFL philosophy. She thought rolling a hoop down the road with a stick was fun…what did she know about football anyway?

All that to say, for FF-purposes, you have to like the Philly-D the ROS…Seattle at home, Dallas at home/cold, and at Washington. You also have to like them into the future…Eli, bad back Romo, and whatever Washington is doing….six-times per year!

 — I’m not commenting on any Dallas offensive players here…why should I? This was an aberration…an ill-prepared for the Philly-D ‘aberration’, for an improving/good Dallas team not yet outside the box. When typical meets radical…things like this tend to happen to the ‘typical’.

 — IDP Anthony Hitchens (12 tackles, 10 solo) four games as a starter: 9.0 tackles per game.

 

R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here: The Machine via FFM

 **If you enjoy the free content on Fantasy Football Metrics.com please consider making your next Amazon purchase through our website/link partnership with Amazon. You’re going to buy something at Amazon anyway, there is no extra charge — help give us a little love! Feel free to save/bookmark this link in your favorites and you will have it for all future Amazon purchases. Thanks for your consideration! Link — Amazon.com: Online Shopping for Electronics, Apparel, Computers, Books, DVDs & more **

 

2014 Week 13 Dynasty-Fantasy Recap: Lions vs. Bears (11/27/2014)

Twitter @FFMetrics

I have to hand it to Detroit, and their coaches. I never thought they would get off the mat down 14-3 in the first quarter. I just didn’t think it was ‘their day’ when things collapsed for them early (missed open receiver on 3rd-down on first drive, fumble in their own red-zone next drive, and CHI converts two quick scores, etc.). After getting down 14-3, the Lions went on a 31-3 run to close it out. I realize the Bears are ‘dead inside’, so it was somewhat easy pickings, but it was impressive none the less that they were able to yank the momentum back, and go on to destroy the Bears.

The Bears actually had some life left in the season with a win over the Lions. So for them to go up 14-3, and then get humiliated—you know this team is ‘dead inside’. We all already had confidence in picking Fantasy players against the Bears-D, because it is injury-devastated and awful…but going forward they have nothing to play for. This will be a play that keeps on giving.

The odds Marc Trestman is fired at season’s end just went from 40-60 to 60-40. I like what he’s doing, but he saddled himself with Jay Cutler (31-48 for 280 yards, 2 TD/2 INT)…and now he’s going to pay; like they all do. The way Cutler played after the 14-3 lead they were spotted was an embarrassment—and some credit given to the very good, aggressive Lions defense.

 — Joique Bell (23 carries for 91 yards and 2 TDs, 2 rec. for 16 yards on 2 targets) took every carry in this game for Detroit. Theo Riddick (6 rec. for 54 yards on 7 targets) took most of the targets. Bell may not seem as sexy, but he plays on a team with nice offensive weapons, and he’s the main carry guy…and goal line guy. He is probably as or more FF-useful than a Tre Mason or Steven Jackson or Bishop Sankey or Jerick McKinnon ahead…just less ‘new car smell’.

 — As I theorized a few weeks back—you are seeing the shift toward Alshon Jeffery (9 rec. for 71 yards and 2 TDs on 13 targets) as the Bears top WR, and slow move away from Brandon Marshall (6 rec. for 42 yards on 10 targets). Jeffery has top 3-5 Fantasy ability. Congrats to those of you who pounced on this a few weeks ago in Dynasty deals.

Congrats to those who took the College Football Metrics.com advice on Jeffery back in 2012…he was our computer’s #1 rated WR prospect that draft season. Ask Dynasty GMs or NFL teams that took the likes of Justin Blackmon, Michael Floyd, Kendall Wright, A.J. Jenkins, Brian Quick, or Stephen Hill…a.k.a. all the WRs selected ahead of Jeffery in the 2014 NFL Draft…and most Dynasty Rookie Drafts.

To be fair, we liked A.J. Jenkins too…we just never would have taken a smaller WR that high in the draft. I also think Jenkins has talent, and might yet get a chance at some stage…a chance to show competence.

 — In four of his last 5 games played, IDP Ryan Mundy (12 tackles, 11 solo) has eight or more tackles in four of those games—averaging 10.0 tackles per game in them. In the outlier game of the five, he had zero tackles…and a pick (and he played 81% of the defensive snaps…odd).

 — Matt Stafford (34-45 for 390 yards, 2 TD/0 INT) played a heck of a game, obviously. However, I give more credit to an awful Bears defense playing a soft zone (because they have to with all their injuries). Again, I say for Fantasy QBs and WRs ahead…you want in on facing the Bears pass defense. Dallas, New Orleans, Detroit the next three weeks.

 

R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here: The Machine via FFM

 **If you enjoy the free content on Fantasy Football Metrics.com please consider making your next Amazon purchase through our website/link partnership with Amazon. You’re going to buy something at Amazon anyway, there is no extra charge — help give us a little love! Feel free to save/bookmark this link in your favorites and you will have it for all future Amazon purchases. Thanks for your consideration! Link — Amazon.com: Online Shopping for Electronics, Apparel, Computers, Books, DVDs & more **

 

Are You Already Online Shopping For Christmas?

Life is too short not do all your shopping online…and save a ton of money, typically, by shopping with Amazon!

Do yourself a favor and check out the ‘Black Friday’ deals they have available right now…because I think it has been Black Friday for like a week. Why companies offer all these deals on this one shopping day…when it is not a novel idea anymore, I have no idea? BUT thank you for the mega discounts on stuff I was going already buy from you.  

I went on Amazon tonight (Eagles game out of hand) for no particular reason and saw an item my son was saving for to use in his new business, that he was literally going to buy in a couple of days…and it has dropped from $110 to $70 because…’Black Friday’. There is a million other things on there too with time limits…you may find things you like that have nothing to do with Christmas shopping.

Whatever you do, would you consider using our link below before you start shopping at Amazon this ‘shopping season’? It changes nothing to you pricing or experience, but it helps us immensely! After you click, feel free to save it as a favorite so we are always locked in. A few seconds for you…a huge tip of the cap for us. 

Guys, if you’re not ‘the shopper’…force your significant other who does not play Fantasy Football, and who is the shopper between you to use the link! Great to send to other non-Fantasy playing family members, and force them to use it as well. Help FFM with no coins out of your pocket!! Thank you!

Here’s the link to click before you start shopping…takes you right to Amazon as normal:

 ** Thanks for your consideration! Link — Amazon.com: Online Shopping for Electronics, Apparel, Computers, Books, DVDs & more **

 

Thanksgiving Wagers…

I don’t like any of the bets today, personally. I’m still a little up in my head about things in general on wagering in general the last few weeks.

Actually, I’m pleasantly confused/smitten by my ‘Costanza wagering formula’. That theory is loosely based on when George Costanza decided to do everything the opposite because nothing was working out on any of his instincts. Jerry famously said, “If every instinct you’ve ever had is wrong, then the opposite must be right.”

I joked about that theory last week, and went 4-1 with my initial ‘Costanza picks’ in Week 12. My own picks were 1-1.

For Thanksgiving, my ‘Costanza pick’ theory shows Detroit -7.0 as a hot play. It has no excitement for PHI-DAL (leans DAL). It has no excitement for SF-SEA (leans SF).

If Detroit comes in…then I have two, maybe three, ‘Costanza picks’ that I might actually jump on Sunday for fun (or to destroy the system). Games I would never play otherwise.

Whatever you are playing today, Good Luck!!

 

Week 13 Projections Updated (11:40am ET)

Have a great Thanksgiving!!

Hope you have the day off.

Some of us have to work all day…

…watching football!

Enjoy!!

 

2014 Week 12 Dynasty-Fantasy Recap: Eagles vs.Titans (11/23/2014)

Twitter @FFMetrics

 — People are completely off their rockers with Mark Sanchez (30-43 for 307 yards, 1 TD/2 INT). Sanchez debuts (as full starter) with win over a bad Carolina team…and he’s the greatest QB ever. The Eagles get trounced by the Packers, which is not a crime, and then…well…no one cares about Sanchez. He stinks. “When is Foles coming back?” the media wonders. The Eagles step on a horrid Titans team at home…and now Sanchez is back to greatness. He is getting unfairly praised and maligned in all three+ of his games so far.

There is so much media agenda built in with him it’s hard to determine reality.

If you step back and really watch what he’s is doing, he is an average QB who tends to instantly crumble under any pressure…pocket or game-related. Story of his career.

He has four games under his belt. A so-so effort against Houston when both Texans starting CBs got hurt/left the game moments into the game. He had one nice drive vs. Carolina, which has an awful pass defense. He got rocked at Green Bay. He struggled on and off vs. Tennessee…a game that was really never in doubt from the opening whistle. Sanchez has 7 TD/6 INT in four games…that’s who he is…a 1-to-1 TD-INT ratio QB…has been so his entire career. He can hold down the fort…but he is not a franchise QB.

Am I supposed to be impressed that Sanchez has three 300+ yard games in a row? It’s a good thing for FF-purposes. NFL-wise, it’s been unimpressive. He was getting destroyed by Green Bay, but once the Pack led by 40+ they started backing things down…and Sanchez ‘went to work’. He might go for 300+ against Dallas this week. If Dallas can make Eli Manning look like a genius…Sanchez should do just fine.

However, you can see, if you are watching, that Sanchez is an ‘OK’ QB filling in without a lot of pressure to this point.

The pressure is on Thanksgiving Day. A massive national TV event, huge division game on the road. If Philly can get a handle early…Sanchez will be fine (like vs. Carolina and Tennessee). If Dallas gets the upper hand quick (like Green Bay did to Philly/Sanchez)…and if Sanchez had anything to do with it, you might see a massive unraveling.

If Philly loses to Dallas, and then follows that up with a Seattle loss in Week 14…all hell will break loose in Philadelphia. I really have no strong conviction which way it will go Thursday. I don’t trust Sanchez in general, but I trust the Philly-D and Chip Kelly…if the Eagles get up quick, it could be a Dallas implosion coming. All I know is…I can’t wait to watch!

 — Our computer scouting models were not fans of Zach Mettenberger (20-39 for 345 yards, 2 TD/1 INT). I did not like what I witnessed on tape either. I saw a QB that folded under a hint of pocket pressure, and made bad decisions within them…but one who shined OK with all day to throw. As much as we did not ‘like’ him coming out of LSU, I have to admit he looked a little better in his NFL preseason games…I expected doom, and he didn’t wobble like I thought. He has had a decent run in the regular-season so far. Not great, but some decent moments.

That’s the thing with Mettenberger. He has a ton of physical tools. He has a level of ‘swagger’…or another person would say, ‘arrogance’. He makes plays with his physical tools…or his wide-open style of play. He also tends to get in trouble because he thinks he’s invincible. He throws into any coverage feeling he can place the ball just right…and mostly doesn’t. One of his TDs in this game…a long one…was a bad throw that hit a Philly defender’s hands, tipped up right to Justin Hunter (4 rec. for 64 yards and 1 TD on 10 targets) in-stride…and 40-yards later a TD. It shoulda been incomplete, or a pick…but turned into a lucky TD. You get that with Mettenberger because he (false) confidentially will work middle-deep trusting his arm to bail him out. He will stare down receivers. He will make bad decisions. Play enough hands of blackjack with him at QB, and you’re going to win up broke…sometimes you’ll get a ‘blackjack’…mostly you’ll go broke.

That being said, he’s not the worst Fantasy QB to use in a decent matchup right now…because he’s going to ‘bring it’. You just have to hope he lands it in his own guy’s hands…and not the opponent’s more-times.

 — Bishop Sankey (10 carries for 37 yards, 2 rec. for 14 yards on 3 targets) has been a Fantasy disappointment; stat-wise. However, I like the way he is running the ball. You can see the ability trying to peak through. His O-Line hasn’t been great…and now they lost two top O-line guys this week. Sankey will continue to flop ahead…he may be setting up for a very cheap acquisition right now, looking at Dynasty 2015. The talent is there…it’s just hiding right now.

 — IDP Derrick Morgan (10 tackles, 1 sack, 3 TFL) splits in 2014…

15.0 tackles, 0.0 sacks = first five games in 2014

27.0 tackles, 3.5 sacks = last five games, with at least 0.5 sacks in four of the five contests.

 — Here’s Jordan Matthews’ (6 rec. for 77 yards on 8 targets) numbers with Mark Sanchez the last three weeks…if you annualized them into a 16-game full-season…

133 catches for 1,717 yards and 16 TDs

I’d take those numbers from Matthews. I told you he was ‘special’. He has effectively become what Jeremy Maclin (6 rec. for 59 yards on 8 targets) was for Nick Foles.

 

R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here: The Machine via FFM

 **If you enjoy the free content on Fantasy Football Metrics.com please consider making your next Amazon purchase through our website/link partnership with Amazon. You’re going to buy something at Amazon anyway, there is no extra charge — help give us a little love! Feel free to save/bookmark this link in your favorites and you will have it for all future Amazon purchases. Thanks for your consideration! Link — Amazon.com: Online Shopping for Electronics, Apparel, Computers, Books, DVDs & more **

 

Week 13 Projections Updated (5:30pm ET)

 

2014 Week 12 Dynasty-Fantasy Recap: Colts vs. Jags (11/23/2014)

Twitter @FFMetrics

There are a few Fantasy Football life lessons to be taken away from this game…meaning for the rest of our FF-life we should heed these lessons as ‘axioms’. Truths that won’t change no matter how much we ‘hope’…no matter when there is a 1-2 game output spike, and everyone gets nuts about it.

I got caught in both of the following to some degree this week…trying to nab a one week shot in the arm…

Truth #1: Andrew Luck doesn’t really care about Coby Fleener.

You know they went to Stanford together, right? I remember when Indy selected Fleener, and the FF-world got super-excited. How could you not: Luck + Fleener = FF-gold, right?

Our College Football Metrics scouting of Fleener detected something wrong with Fleener (and that scouting report exists for free on the web (link) 2012 Coby Fleener Scouting Report on CFMOur computers saw a player with a ton of physical gifts, but absolutely no performance trend to go with it. It made no sense…no sense in that everyone was desiring Fleener as mock draft #20-30 overall prospect…who fell later in the draft than expected.

**Can you believe it almost time for College Football Metrics, again? This year will be the biggest, most report-filled, surprise-laden version of CFM ever!! We’ll talk about this more in detail as we head towards Christmas. CFM 2015 will launch around Jan 7th-5th, 2015.

Fleener is ‘OK’. He’s not going to any next level…at least he has not shown that through three years. In his last 14 games, he has three of fewer catches in 10 of them.

In 39 career games, Fleener has four or fewer catches in 33 of them. Three or fewer catches in 26 of 39 career games. He’s not a hack…he’s just not going to some other mystical level you would think is waiting to happen working with Andrew Luck. Fleener has a decent game here and there, and I start thinking…maybe Fleener has found ‘it’…because I want in on the TE who is working with Andrew Luck (21-32 for 253 yards, 1 TD/0 INT). I almost would have been better with Jack Doyle (2 rec. for 8 yards on 3 targets) than Coby Fleener (2 rec. for 28 yards on 4 targets) in this game.

If this is the best Fleener can do with Allen out, and facing Jacksonville…in a game that was touch and go for a while…then why should hope for the future?

I am in a desperate search for the next high-end, elite Fantasy TE…and Coby Fleener is not it. He has the tools, but there is something in the heart that showed lacking in college, and in the pros to date. I won’t say it will never happen, because of the physical gifts, but I am done trying to gin up any excitement about it.

 

Truth #2: You’re screwed if you have a WR tied to Jacksonville…with the current coaching staff.

I really like Allen Robinson…the computer really likes Allen Robinson. If he were on the Eagles, he’d be the rookie WR you’d be excited about…and Jordan Matthews on Jacksonville would be a distant memory.

I’m OK with Marqise Lee (3 rec. for 52 yards on 5 targets), I just cannot believe they wasted a high draft pick on him.

I think Cecil Shorts (1 rec. for 6 yards on 3 targets) could be a star. He has shown star capabilities.

Justin Blackmon could be a #1 WR with his head on straight.

None of this will really come to fruition for these WRs as long as Gus Bradley and Jedd Fisch run the offense in Jacksonville. Additionally, it won’t happen with Blake Bortles (15-27 for 146 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) at QB no matter who the coaches are.

Sure, there will be a game or two for any of the WRs mentioned…or Allen Hurns for that matter. There might be a little hot streak, but if you are desiring Fantasy-Dynasty sustainability…you should never give the Jags WR/QB combo the benefit of any doubt. Blake Bortles is so awful (even given his rookie status) that the Jags GM, coaching staff, and all the media who endorsed him should burn for it. They won’t. So why do I agree to be burned by guessing which week Cecil Shorts might have a good FF-game? Why should I sit around hoping for garbage time stats? That’s no way to run a Dynasty team in the long run. It will burn you at various points in-season trying guess which Jags WR will have a good FF-game in junk time. However, there I was in Week 12 hoping on Cecil Shorts to have some more follow through action with a good week prior, and Allen Robinson gone…I got one catch for six-yards.

Blake Bortles is awful: 4 TD/8 INT in his last five games with 58.0% Completion Percentage…he gets progressively worse as other young guys thrown into the fire like Teddy Bridgewater and Derek Carr get a little better. Blaine Gabbert to Chad Henne to Blake Bortles…the ruination of Cecil Shorts.

All that to say…Dynasty-wise…Cecil Shorts is a free agent to be, and he will be as interesting a WR as will have hit free agency in a while because he has high-end talent, but will come at a discount because of his inability to produce numbers due to the Jags. Shorts is a neat Dynasty investment now, cheap, for 2015…hoping he goes to like a Dallas or Philly, and not to Oakland or Buffalo.

 — We thought IDP rookie Telvin Smith (13 tackles, 10 solo, 2 TFL) was a good-great OLB prospect from the 2014 NFL Draft, because he was a high-end cover OLB…who might be a great Strong Safety as well. What we didn’t foresee was him moving to more of an ILB role with the Jags.

Our computer scouting models were suspicious of his desire to be a tackler, but some of that issue may have been he was asked to drop into coverage more in college. He has bulked up a little, and due to Jags injuries and inefficiencies, he has been playing more ILB in a two-man ILB set. This week he had 13 tackles…and looked good doing it. My IDP Jeremiah George-excitement took a hit watching Smith this past week. George and Smith are the cornerstones of a very good linebacker corps, we think…but it will take time. For now, Telvin may be a great IDP play the next few weeks…he’s playing middle linebacker on a team that’s always on defense.

 — I’ve said this a couple of times this week: Daniel Herron (12 carries for 65 yards, 5 rec. for 31 yards on 5 targets) got much better treatment in this game than Trent Richardson (13 carries for 42 yards and 1 TD, 0 rec. on 1 target). Worse case it was equal billing.

You might see this and think, “They played Jacksonville and wanted to get Herron up to speed.” That’s not a crazy thought, but this game was a war for 2.5 quarters, and Herron was taking critical touches. He was getting an Ahmad Bradshaw like treatment. I don’t think it is insane to equivocate Herron as Bradshaw or Bradshaw-lite for ROS…and Bradshaw really mattered in FF.

Herron is not a super-talent, he is ‘OK’ in talent and works hard/runs worth great effort. He will work…he will not be the Colts RB of the future. He’s the Colts RB of right now. If you need him…he works. If you picked him up on your Dynasty team that’s ‘done’ for 2014…you should be flipping him right now.

The Colts RB of the future is Zurlon Tipton (activated, but did not play)…at least he is in the fairy tale football land that exists in my mind only.

 

R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here: The Machine via FFM

 **If you enjoy the free content on Fantasy Football Metrics.com please consider making your next Amazon purchase through our website/link partnership with Amazon. You’re going to buy something at Amazon anyway, there is no extra charge — help give us a little love! Feel free to save/bookmark this link in your favorites and you will have it for all future Amazon purchases. Thanks for your consideration! Link — Amazon.com: Online Shopping for Electronics, Apparel, Computers, Books, DVDs & more **

 

Notes From All Week 12 Games for Dynasty-Fantasy Waivers, Sleepers, etc.

Twitter @FFMetrics

 

PHI-TEN

 — Of all the ‘bad’ QBs we don’t like, Zach Mettenberger is the one I see the most ‘good’ happening with. I still think there are a lot of issues here, but Mettenberger is playing care-free, mature football on more snaps/throws than not. In a matchup with Houston this week…he is not a crazy ‘hail mary’ start in some formats, if you need a spark (or certain death).

 — Mark Sanchez isn’t a bad FF-start Week 13 either. If Dallas cannot figure out Eli Manning, then Sanchez has a puncher’s chance for 300+ and 2+ TDs…indoors at Dallas. Aside from that, Sanchez again looked flimsy as a starter against Tennessee, and was propped up by his defense and special teams.

Essentially four starts so far for Sanchez…7 TD/6 INT. With his best game against a horrible pass defense (CAR), and embarrassed by the best D he faced (GB). He is not Philly’s QB of the future, not even close…the Sanchez chatter might help Eagles mgt. with Nick Foles’ long-term contract negotiations, however.

 — The last time TEN played HOU, Delanie Walker had a season high nine-targets with Zach Mettenberger making his debut (they face HOU again Week 13). In two of three games with Mettenberger starting, Walker has nine targets (five in the other).

 

SEA-ARI

 — I thought this was a fun stat thread when I stumbled upon it:

Russell Wilson and Andre Ellington have each played the same number of games this season (11)…

Yards Rushing: 664 = Wilson, 648 = Ellington

Rushing TDs: 4 = Wilson, 3 = Ellington

100+ yard rushing games: 4 = Wilson, 0 = Ellington

70+ yard rushing games: 5 = Wilson, 4 = Ellington

Rushing attempts: 196 = Ellington, 84 = Wilson

Russell Wilson is your 4pts per pass TD hope at surviving against Luck-Rodgers-Peyton ahead…

 — IDP Deone Bucannon’s (a.k.a. our #1 rated Safety in this draft class) first six games, versus his last five:

4.3 tackles, 0.0 sacks, 0.0 PDs per game = First six games

6.2 tackles, 0.4 sacks, 0.4 PDs per game = Last five games

2.2 tackles, 0.0 sacks, 0.3 PDs per game = Tyrann Matthieu in 2014

Deone’s moving into a potential weekly start in IDPs with multiple DB slots to fill…

 — John Brown’s last three weeks with Drew Stanton

*5 or more catches in a game twice (achieved one-time the prior eight games)

*60 or more receiving yards in a game three-times (achieved one-time prior)

Brown is becoming the best Arizona receiver to have…over Larry Fitzgerald, and definitely over Michael Floyd.

 

MIA –DEN

 — Two or more TD passes in a game YTD (Random QBs):

10-times = Peyton Manning

9-times = Andrew Luck

8-times = Drew Brees

7-times  Ryan Tannehill

7-times = Tony Romo

5-times = Matt Stafford

5-time = Ben Roethlisberger

 — Lamar Miller has rushed for 100+ yards in a game just one-time this season. He has done so one other time in his NFL years—so twice in 40 career games. Miller is taking useful FF-carries now, but he is not the long-term excitement for a Dynasty team. By contrast, Denard Robinson had two 100+ yard games in his first two NFL starts.

 — C.J. Anderson will be awesome to have for FF the next few weeks, but there is zero chance he’ll be the main RB of the future for Denver.

 

CLE-ATL

 — Roddy White’s first five games this season: 4.8 catches per game. His last five games: 7.4 catches per game.

 — Brian Hoyer’s last seven games: 122 completions, 233 attempts = 52.3%…5 TD/7 INT. This is the QB the media loves, and wants paid? You may not want to discard your Johnnie Manziel cards just yet for 2014 usage. If he wasn’t so awful, he’d be in by now.

 — Steven Jackson is getting the touches, but good heavens…time has passed him by. He is still NFL-worthy, but he should be part of a duo…and a short yardage, sparingly used guy. He runs like he has a proverbial piano on his back…he’s still giving you 120% tough effort, but his effectiveness is dying fast. He may be getting main carries for Atlanta, but you’re lucky to just get a short TD run per week, because big runs/100+ yard games are over. The last time Steven Jackson ran for 85+ yards in a game: November 2012.

As a member of the Falcons, SJax’s high for rushing yards in a game is 84. He has gone 84+ rushing yards twice in his last 39 NFL games.

 

DET-NE

 — I bet ‘all-in’ that the Patriots use LeGarrette Blount over Jonas Gray. I think he’ll be used exclusively over Gray. Jonas will be but a distant FF-memory. Remember, the time he ran for four TDs…on your bench (for most)?

 — In his last seven games, Calvin Johnson has one game with 100+ yards and just one TD. I don’t know how you can sit him at home against a battered Bears secondary. He might be in line for one of those crazy output efforts on Thanksgiving…you’d think/hope.

 — In his last five games, IDP James Ihedigbo has averaged 7.0 tackles, 0.4 INTs, and 0.8 PDs. In our first projections run, he is our top rated DB for Week 13 against the Bears. 

 

SF-WAS

 — Those of us who thought Jordan Reed or Niles Paul would be wonderful options when RG3 returned…guess again. Reed was the apple of many FF-eyes in the preseason, and he has completely collapsed in value this season. I’m not that interested in him as a flyer for Dynasty ahead either…for fear of one more concussion throwing him out of the league.

 — I’ve not wanted to believe, but now I am starting to believe…the Frank Gore run as a top NFL RB is coming to a rapid end. However, the only RB with worse effectiveness than Gore is Carlos Hyde. Since Week 2, Hyde is averaging 3.2 yards per carry. He has a bunch of ‘eggs’ in there too…7 carries for 16 yards, 11 carries for 14 yards, etc. Not good. Our computer scouting models were lukewarm on Hyde, and he has done nothing this season to change that.

 

TB-CHI

 — Austin Seferian-Jenkins hasn’t done much this season, but I think his nagging injuries are playing a role in that (along with rookie TEs typically doing little). My fear is this is an emerging trend…ASJ and nagging injuries. I’m still a believer, but not 100% all-in, but mostly all-in.

 — Josh McCown is not that good. He will also be 36+ years old next season. This is Mike Glennon’s ship to captain soon. I’ll bet Glennon gets a few more starts as soon as Tampa is totally dead in the awful NFC South. The football media is already speculating on Jameis Winston being drafted here. Never change football media…please keep being awful. Whatever team drafts Winston is doomed.

 — I would just like to mention something for those planning for the 2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft. About this time last year, the football media/scouts were hysterical for their #1 rated RB in the class…Ka’Deem Carey. Be careful falling in love with the likes of Melvin Gordon…it’s their job to hype every RB as the greatest ever.

 

 

NYG-DAL

 — Terrance Williams has 0, 1, or 2 catches in a game in six of his last seven games…including eight of his last ten contests. I feel vindicated for holding my scouting ground here. Devin Street is going to take that job eventually.

 — Speaking of WRs you liked, that I didn’t…Rueben Randle’s 15 FF-minutes are about up.

 — Barry Church was a top IDP Safety last season, averaging 8.4 tackles per game. This season: 5.6 tackles per game. He had 8 tackles and a pick in Week 12, but that has been the aberration of output for him in this new defense.

 

IND-JAC

 — Again, I will say, because I do enjoy it…Blake Bortles is a bust in-waiting…busting right before our very eyes.

Jacksonville is so ‘unlucky’ to find the absolute worst highly-rated QBs in every draft they pick a QB in. Who was marching in lock-step with the Jags? All the football scouts and media. Listen as they tell you about the great Marcus Mariota today…

 — As far as I saw in this game, the Colts care more about Daniel Herron than Trent Richardson. That was a little shocking. They really are ‘over’ Trent. I hope I don’t have to wait on Zurlon Tipton as long as I did to see Latavius Murray prove my scouting eye as superior.

 — Jokes on me! I thought Coby Fleener might be able to string a few decent games together with Dwayne Allen out. Jack Doyle was as important to Andrew Luck in Week 12.

 

GB-MIN

 — More detail on this in the game recap, but as horrible as Norv Turner’s offense is for a young QB…trying to get Teddy Bridgewater killed—something is happening. Under the duress, Teddy is progressing…fighting through the chaos. His first two starts after he got back from injury: 1 TD/5 INT. His last five games: 5 TD/2 INT…and his sacks counts are reducing quickly. Visually, I can see him improving in all facets…unlike Blake Bortles.

Bridgewater is a really good QB prospect. He will be a solid pro. He might be a good pro. He might even be an elite…the computer thinks there is a very small chance of that. Bridgewater in Dynasty is not a crazy buy low as a QB3-4 investment to pay-off in 2015+.

 — Joe Banyard ran the ball well as an emergency RB2 for Minnesota. He’s capable, but not a future star or anything.

 — After making a big splash on his move to ILB, Clay Matthews dropped a clunker Week 12: 2 tackles, 1 PD, no sacks.

 

OAK-KC

 — If Latavius Murray is not able to get back from concussion, Marcel Reece is the ‘sleeper’ hiding out right now. I think, along with Murray, it dawned on Oakland to get Reece involved. I think Murray takes the strong lead, but if ruled out…Reece is a steal off waivers.

 — God Bless Derek Carr’s plucky spirit, but four-straight games under 200-yards passing with 5 TD/4 INT is not an improvement…on a team/situation where he is throwing 40+ times a game. I hope I’m wrong, but the rug is going to get pulled on Oakland with Carr…but it may take 2-3 years before it sinks in.

 — With Eric Berry out…IDP DB Ron Parker gets even more interesting ahead. Parker has 8.0 tackles per game over his last four games, shifting from CB to S to CB. He should continue to get picked on…and thus produce FF-output.

 

CIN-HOU

 — Ryan Mallett was suspect to be injured heading into this game…it may be the reason he was so far off. However, what I saw was the Mallett I’ve seen every preseason with New England. He just does not have ‘it’.

Tom Savage is the future…and the future is in about two more losses. I think.

 — Cincy went right back heavy to Gio Bernard, off his injury…a true split with Jeremy Hill. That will be the madness for the rest of 2014…trying to figure out which one will do what each week. Good luck.

 — Let me just throw this thought out there: We all love Odell Beckham Jr. now, right? I agree, that was an amazing catch…and performance Sunday night. You know who has hands like OBJ, and is just kinda hiding in a weak passing game: DeAndre Hopkins. Savage + Hopkins could be a marriage made in heaven.

 

NYJ-BUF

 — The more I watch, the less impressed with Sammy Watkins I am. You watch Jordan Matthews, Mike Evans, Brandin Cooks, Odell Beckham Jr., and then watch Watkins…you’d swear he’s the 5th-best among them. That’s not a slam of Watkins, he’s a talent…but it is a bubble burst on his draft hysteria. He’s nowhere near progressing like the other top rookie WRs.

 — I told you…Percy Harvin is dead money. You had that one Jets game with 11 catches to make a deal. If you didn’t, you are most likely stuck in Dynasty. In redraft, he’s a drop in most formats.

 — Fred Jackson is back, and Bryce Brown disappears…as predicted. You won’t see much Bryce until Buffalo is officially eliminated, and maybe not then either. If FJax gets hurt again, then crank up my hype machine again.

 

NO-BAL

 — I’m not inclined to trust that Kenny Stills eight catch/nine target MNF effort will be something going forward. He will get looks for sure, but I think there is little chance he is the new ‘it’ WR to have. I would not be shocked if he had two catches on four targets next week.

 — Mark Ingram has come plummeting back to earth, and he looked awful on MNF. Don’t kill Pierre Thomas off totally just yet—PT had six catches in his return. Shane Vereen-south.

 — How important is drafting or offering big contracts to RBs when Justin Forsett walks off the street onto a team who had an awful RB-output last year with Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce, and becomes a star?

How important is drafting RBs highly in FF? Not very…as I’ve prattled about. Next year, big change in my valuations of Fantasy RBs.

 

STL-SD

 — I was gaga over the Rams-DST…had they won in Week 12. Now that the season is essentially over for them…I’m cautiously optimistic because of their nice schedule setup.

 — Stedman Bailey was targeted nine-times in this game…and made an amazing TD catch on an alley-oop pass, which was of course taken away for a joke penalty. However, Bailey scored again two plays later. It may have just been the game, but Hill was working with Bailey well.

 — Kenny Britt getting heavy coverage also helped Bailey, but as the Rams face a run of inferior teams ahead…I still hold hope Britt is going to be worth something for FF down the stretch.

 — Keenan Allen is back with Philip Rivers…10.8 targets per game in the last five games and 6.6 catches per game. He can be the poor man’s Antonio Brown for San Diego. 

 

R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here: The Machine via FFM

 **If you enjoy the free content on Fantasy Football Metrics.com please consider making your next Amazon purchase through our website/link partnership with Amazon. You’re going to buy something at Amazon anyway, there is no extra charge — help give us a little love! Feel free to save/bookmark this link in your favorites and you will have it for all future Amazon purchases. Thanks for your consideration! Link — Amazon.com: Online Shopping for Electronics, Apparel, Computers, Books, DVDs & more **

 

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