Fantasy Football Metrics

Nick Foles to St. Louis Rumor…The Fantasy Impact

Twitter @FFMetrics

OK, I’ll bite.

It’s a quiet time with real football news, so I’ll play along… 

*Note: If you are a new reader–I absolutely believe Nick Foles is a potential franchise/elite NFL QB, and we’ve all seen strong flashes of it for three seasons. We only believe he isn’t because the media doesn’t care for him–and tears him down at every turn. You’ll see what I mean if you read on.

Here’s what I think is happening with Foles trade talk: There are rarely any NFL trades. I mean nearly 2,000 players under the collective team’s control…and yet the trade deadline yields like 1-2-3 trades of mostly a lesser-named player in exchange for a late draft pick. The imagination and willingness for a GM to make a trade is comically empty. I imagine the fear of ‘being wrong’ has to drive this. It’s safer to do nothing than to do something in court of public opinion—especially if you really have no real idea, no conviction what these players are capable of.

Note: There were all of 16 trades in 2014. THREE of the 16 trades were player for player. Logan Mankins for Tim Wright (+ a pick). Justin Green for Ben Bass. T.J. Yates for Akeem Dent. Two of the three player-for-player trades involved the Patriots—who I assume would trade more, but no one will trade with them (or anybody).

Most 2014 trades for players or picks were ‘dumps’ of players about to be cut anyway. Five of the 16 trades involved ‘conditional draft picks’ which is another way of over scared GMs a reason to trade and have some cover if the player leaving ‘blows up’ (for the good). Of the 13 trades that were player for draft pick…they were all (meaning EVERY) for a 4th-round or later picks and/or conditional…mostly 6th and 7th rounders.

In a 365 days a year league with 2,000 +/- players under control, and the most popular sport in the USA by multiples…and with the ‘smartest’ people in the world running the business…all of that yielded 16 mostly meaningless, safe trades in 2014.

You wish you were an NFL GM why…exactly?

I believe GMs are scared of player trades because of what might happen in the court of public opinion—because they are not afraid at all to make trades not involving players. They trade draft picks for other draft picks like candy. Why? Well, there is a nifty chart for all the dullards to go by…so that makes things easy. Just refer to the chart. Plus, like a impetuous child, a GM is willing to trade 2-3 picks to move up seven spots to get the guy someone fell in love with in the draft war room. People have lauded Bill Belichick for always moving back and acquiring more picks in the draft…this is why. GMs sell their inheritance for a bowl of soup today…and then go on to make terrible picks by and large. Belichick has nothing to lose, and everything to gain.

Back to “There are rarely trades in the NFL…” Because there is no original thought, and mostly media driven player assessments, here comes the formula for a Nick Foles trade rumor:

1) The media has decided Nick Foles is a waste. QB gurus that they are—the only group of people who could be wrong 80-90%+ of the time in assessing talent, but still be national celebrities. Tell me more about Blaine Gabbert…tell me more about franchise QB Mark Sanchez, who you loved, then hated, then loved again. Whatever Foles did to deserve it—it doesn’t matter, every man, woman, and child is onboard with the assessment that Foles is junk.

2) The media has ordained Marcus Mariota. They are also visionary enough to connect former coach and player in college. Of course Chip Kelly would want to flip Foles for Mariota, who wouldn’t? According to the media’s mindset.

3) Chip Kelly’s offense ‘makes QBs’, that’s a mantra now. Except for Foles, it doesn’t help Nick Foles—a.k.a. the greatest QB Kelly has ever had in the NFL by any measure you want to use. The fact that all non-Foles QBs for Kelly have pretty well flopped (Vick, Barkley, Sanchez) cannot stand in the way of the mantra written in stone: Chip Kelly can make any ole’ QB great (except Nick Foles, he has to go).

Well, gosh. All that’s left to do is speculate on potential suitors.

Never mind that out of the other side of their mouths the football intelligentsia proclaims that “Marcus Mariota is not ready, and needs to sit for a year or two”—which is code for: “What if he is just a crappy ‘system’ QB—we better hedge our bets?” Regardless, everyone says he’s not NFL-ready…but that doesn’t mean Chip Kelly won’t trade away a sure thing (Foles) for a rookie who is 1-2 years away, if he ever is going to be ready or ‘good’.

So Chip Kelly, with a talented roster on the verge of being Super Bowl contenders…and who is a coach who probably has 1-2 more years in the NFL before he bolts…he’s going to trade an experienced, winning, almost record-setting efficient young QB because…Marcus Mariota, and his 1-2 years of needing to sit must be brought in immediately.

It makes so much sense…

So much sense that all the media speculation warrants real NFL GMs getting a universal ‘OK’ to see about trading for Foles. They would never think of it on their own.

So here we are.

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If Nick Foles is traded, which would not shock me in reality because I believe the media pressure drives player decisions more than we would ever know. Mix that with Chip Kelly believing any QB works in his system—thus Matt Barkley drafted with Foles and Michael Vick already on the roster, and then Vick chosen as starter over Foles to begin 2013…until Vick sucked, got hurt, and Foles came in cold and almost obliterated the QB efficiency record NFL history. We hate this Foles guy…he must go. Any ole’ QB will do.

Foles would only be traded to a team in absolute need of a QB, AND whose management team is under major pressure—like the pressure where you have one more year before you are gone/you’re lucky to even be back this year.

Enter the St. Louis Rams.

NFL management under pressure has shown that they will sell their soul to survive. See Oakland’s 2014 preseason free agent signings/disasters. The NFL team most willing to sell the farm for Foles has to be in a one-and-done employment situation in 2015.

Because there are no real visionaries or risk-takers among NFL teams (or they already have a franchise QB), most teams would shy away from making a bold deal for Foles. Oh, they’ll trade it all for a draft pick to get the pick in order to pick RG3. Rookie Derangement Syndrome (RDS) is alive and well, but existing players are not really traded for—whatever the media thinks about the existing player is pretty much what the teams think. Favored players are unobtainable, and hated players are toxic–especially at QB.

If it wasn’t so, someone would have made a move for Foles in 2013 when Vick was named starter.

Teams in a one and done employment situation (or inching closer), and who do not have their QB (even if delusional like Miami or Jacksonville) are:

St. Louis

Cleveland

Washington

I’d add Tampa Bay, but they’ll be conned into Jameis Winston.

The Eagles would likely not trade Foles in division—so Washington is out. Cleveland has Jonathan Football, and are not a real desperate management team like some others. St. Louis really is the spot that absolutely makes the most sense. Given their defense, and general overall talent—the Rams go from crafty sleeper if Sam Bradford can stay healthy, to serious Super Bowl contender and chic pick to win their division over Seattle in 2015…if Foles is added.

There is no QB the Rams can trade for, sign as a free agent, or draft in 2015 that is even close to Nick Foles’s talent, experience, and proven-ness. Honestly, this deal, if it was going to happen—it should have happened by now. The Rams cannot afford to wait. No team should be able to match the Rams deal…the Rams should go all-in.

**See the 2015 NFL Draft and 2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft, like never before with our Moneyball-style scouting reports and rankings. Go to www.collegefootballmetrics.com **

 

Nick Foles on the Rams…what’s not to love? He’ll play in a home dome. Seattle is scary in division, but the 49ers are about to crash and burn, and Arizona has been manageable for Foles the last two years (324.0 yards and 2.5 TD/1.0 INT per game against them the last two seasons). The Rams offense has only been conservative due to QB play. Sam Bradford was having a great start to the year in 2013 before he went down. Foles is better than Bradford…and Bradford may never see the field again.

I still believe Foles is staying in Philly in 2015, which I love for FF-purposes. If he is traded to the Rams, I actually FF-love that as much or more. Foles gets traded, and his new team does so committing to him for the future. That’s a good thing too.

Foles is in a win-win situation. He stays in Philly in 2015, and then becomes a coveted 2016 free agent or stays in Philly long term. OR there is a feeding frenzy of trade partners rolling out the red carpet right now. The loser in all this—the team who needs Foles, but doesn’t get him. I almost want Philly to trade Foles and go into 2015 with Marcus Mariota just to watch an entire fan base pick up a football stadium and flip it upside down midway through the 2015 regular-season.

I am going to win ahead holding Nick Foles in a Dynasty League right now.

The Nick Foles Fantasy Football/Dynasty price is going to rocket on a trade, or a long-term deal signed in Philly. Your window for cheap acquisition is closing…

This seems like so long ago…

FolesSI

 

R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here: The Machine via FFM

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The Josh Gordon Ripple Effect…

Twitter @FFMetrics

I have no idea what’s best for Josh Gordon, the human. My first reaction is that his previous suspension didn’t have much of an effect to change his life…so not sure more suspension is going to be a magic elixir either. The NFL is wise to suspend him because an ugly PR ending is likely to come to all of this…something even worse than the world’s most pressing social issue: deflated footballs. Everything that could change Gordon’s life is at his fingertips—the team, the league, teammates…all would be able to spend whatever it takes. He doesn’t lack opportunity. It’s on him now. I pray he finds the help he needs.

There are two things that struck my Fantasy Football mind when I heard this Gordon-suspension news hit. Some lessons to be learned, maybe. I’m not sure enough NFL personnel management teams, scouts, and/or analysts will learn the lesson…or care. As Dynasty-Fantasy GMs, you have to consider some of the lessons that football analysts tend to gloss over…

1) ‘Character studies’ matter in managing your Fantasy team…

Hear me out, before you think this is too ‘obvious’ a take on the situation. I have a twist to consider, and not directly involving Josh Gordon

Middle-aged reaction to this story: “Kids from this generation just don’t get it. Wasting a great opportunity just to party.” That might be true, but I think it overlooks the benefit of this advanced technology era: Football is so popular now, and the general media is so ever present…you cannot cover-up this ‘situation’ up like you did in the 50s or even the 80s and 90s. This is not a new thing happening to NFL players–‘bad’ personal decisions, and demons.

For those old enough to remember/we’re a fan back then: Did you know Cris Carter had such a massive, similar problem to Gordon back in the day? JFK’s personal life probably would make Bill Clinton seem like he was an introvert. There were a lot of things shielded from us on public figures back in the day: steroids, alcoholism, marital indiscretions, etc. Today, I think every drink Johnny Manziel has ever taken has been documented via Twitter or Instagram.

There are several societal pros and cons to this ‘open access’ to celebrity’s lives. We can argue that later. My Fantasy Football management take is (which is more important than societal impacts): Why are we fighting the obvious/public truths on guys like this? Why are we not including it more in our scouting upfront? Sure, now you wish you traded Josh Gordon after 2013. We’re all suspect of his future today, but this pattern of off-field issues was present in his college career: Promising WR at Baylor…but was kicked off the team for drug violations…then transferred to Utah, but never played—and quickly was a late entry into the NFL Draft…another rumored issue with drug test failure at Utah…denial by the player…then kinda admits (after he’s drafted) that he did fail a few tests he didn’t disclose.

Whispers of Gordon having issues with Cleveland leaked immediately in his rookie season…still most all ignored/overlooked it. Suspended a few games to start 2013…it just meant we all smelled a cheap Fantasy ‘sleeper’. He had an incredible stretch to end 2013…and then all was forgotten, all is forgiven. Great seasons tend to do that.  

Gordon gets suspended again. This time for all of 2014, but then we’re all wondering whether to keep him on the Dynasty roster for a year. Many spent time considering a gamble on him as a cheap waiver pickup all 2014 season (pre his return)…hoping might he get a suspension break to return for a few games (he did).

The ‘Risk-reward’ of snatching him up cheaply aside—how do you think this story is going to end? Hopefully, it’s Disney-esque…but very probably not.

There is likely nothing I just wrote in point #1 that ‘blows your mind’ or is a super ‘fresh take’. We all know all this…now.

Here’s my point: Then why are you even interested in Jameis Winston for Fantasy Football or more pressing—the 2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft? Winston is not a drug/alcohol issue (that we know of), but he has been a menace to society several times over…criminal and/or idiotic activity follows him like a dark cloud. Some of you totally love Winston’s NFL prospects, but are the first to proclaim that “Cleveland should cut Gordon.” Why?

Don’t feel bad that you are FF-interested in, and not disgusted by Winston—because NFL Draft analysts have such little faith in NFL teams learning this Gordon-like lesson, that they are mocking Winston #1 overall…and no less than top-5 off-the-board. Dynasty GMs for upcoming Dynasty Rookie Drafts are at least skeptics…NFL Draft analysts see Winston’s off-field pile of garbage as a small speed bump to greatness…they are full steam ahead with Winston. Getting burned by Johnny Manziel last year—it’s ancient history for national football analysts. Who even remembers that Manziel was their love child from 2013?

I do.

In our 2015 NFL Draft scouting over at College Football Metrics.com—we are putting more and more emphasis on character, and adding it into our mathematical, computer-generated scouting models. It has to be on the table in scouting college players, but it is very tricky to ascertain and interpret.

**See the 2015 NFL Draft and 2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft, like never before with our Moneyball-style scouting reports and rankings. Go to www.collegefootballmetrics.com **

 

Character issues affect future suspend-ability at their extremes (Gordon, Blackmon, soon Manziel), but more subtly it hurts—coachable-ness, ability to focus on and study game plans, and willingness to learn/improve on techniques. Cordarrelle Patterson may have been the biggest talent in the 2013 NFL Draft, but all along the 2013 NFL Draft process, I noted character concerns…and then I started overlooking them in 2014. In a more subtle way, in 2014, his ‘issues’ bit me in the FF-ass (and those who followed me into that burning building). Not suspended…not even a bad guy publicly…but something is wrong. His college career and scouting reports did not exude him as a model of consistency and superior decision-making.

The ‘Character’ issue is moving up the charts quickly as a critical piece of the scouting puzzle for Dynasty GMs, like it has been for some in the NFL. Others in the NFL, obviously ignore it or de-emphasis it (or I don’t know what goes through their minds)—and Cleveland has seemed to be habitually off-base on it recently.

I know some of you are wondering if Justin Blackmon has an interesting ‘risk-reward’ play at hand. The answer is “Yes.” Because the price is so cheap. My larger point on ‘character’ in scouting would not bar you from ‘buy low.’ I would rather have prevented you from wasting a high Rookie Draft Pick on him in 2012…or encouraged you to sell him off ‘high’ when the opportunity presented. I’m all for playing the ‘character card’ for a ‘buy low, sell high’…you just have to remember the ‘sell high’ part.

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2) What Might Have Been in Cleveland…

Browns former GM Mike Lombardi tried to trade Josh Gordon in 2013, but got shot down…and eventually shoved out the door after just one season as GM. He was successful in moving Trent Richardson with deft timing—another ‘issue’ player. I wonder what might have happened if Lombardi was allowed to actually GM the Browns the way he wanted.

If Gordon was gone, and the Browns took ‘character’ more seriously—I wonder if they would have landed one of the prize WRs from the excellent 2014 WR draft class. Instead, they took Johnny Manziel, bypassing several great WR prospects in the late 1st-round. From today’s vantage point (and my original vantage point) the Manziel pick in 2014 is virtually equal to having the pick taken away–it will yield nothing (but mocking). It could have yielded any number of rookie WRs with their two 1st-round picks they had in 2014 (could have had a third 1st-round pick if they dealt Gordon when they wanted to).

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The ripple effect of Josh Gordon on all subsequent personnel decisions in 2012-13-14 could cost Cleveland another decade of heartache. Adding Manziel only further throws logs on the fire. It’s entirely possible that Gordon is done, as is Manziel…two high draft picks that are worthless today.

Some of you Dynasty GMs are in a similar boat—you’re about to get a goose egg out of Gordon in 2015. You may also have drafted Johnny Manziel…another zero for 2015, and beyond. At low prices, sure you take cheap flyers here…if you want. But ‘what might have been’ if you used that spot for some other Rookie Draft pick, or waiver pickup gamble, or traded these players at their peak?

I realize hindsight is wonderful, convenient, and annoying. My point is: These Gordon (and Manziel) issues were screaming at us all along. Did we learn our lesson going forward? Or are we now going to spend a high Dynasty Rookie Draft pick on Jameis Winston hoping he has a life-changing epiphany when some team shoves millions in his pocket as a reward for his character resume from college? Are we going to clutch Justin Blackmon too tightly when he has a good training camp? Let the NFL make this repeating mistake…not you.

 

R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here: The Machine via FFM

 **If you enjoy the free content on Fantasy Football Metrics.com please consider making your next Amazon purchase through our website/link partnership with Amazon. You’re going to buy something at Amazon anyway, there is no extra charge — help give us a little love! Feel free to save/bookmark this link in your favorites and you will have it for all future Amazon purchases. Thanks for your consideration! Link — Amazon.com: Online Shopping for Electronics, Apparel, Computers, Books, DVDs & more **

 

IDP CB Prospect Delvin Breaux, New Orleans (Signed from the CFL)

Twitter @FFMetrics

There was an interesting CFL player signed by New Orleans this weekend—CB Delvin Breaux of LSU, by way of the semi-pro Louisiana Bayou (2012), the Arena league’s New Orleans VooDoo (2012-13), and the CFL Hamilton Tiger Cats (2013-14).

What makes this story a little more interesting: Breaux was a scholarship CB prospect for LSU, but broke three vertebrae in a high school game in his senior season, and was not cleared to play for LSU. He attended the school for a while, working as a ‘player-coach’, but was never cleared to play…and eventually left LSU.

A few years later, he was cleared to play college ball at tiny Arkansas-Monticello, but couldn’t pull the grades to get on to the field.

A few years out of football entirely, Breaux worked out for, and made a semi-pro team (Louisiana Bayou). He played well enough to earn an all-star honor. He also used that experience to get a tryout with the Arena League New Orleans VooDoo, where he reportedly ran a 4.38 40-time in the workout. He was able to leverage his Arena League experience into a CFL signing.

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Breaux played two seasons in the CFL (2013-14), and earned an all-star recognition while helping lead his team to the Grey Cup. In the playoff game prior to the grand CFL finale, Breaux locked down CFL star (and soon to be NFL’er) Duron Carter (3 rec. for 25 yards).

His 2014 CFL season was enough to attract more NFL attention, and he was just signed by the New Orleans Saints.   

**See the 2015 NFL Draft and 2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft, like never before with our Moneyball-style scouting reports and rankings. Go to www.collegefootballmetrics.com **

 

Watching Breaux on tape in the CFL, I see the speed (better than most in the CFL for sure), with a nice NFL-size (6’0”+, 190+). Breaux has a solid, chiseled frame—he a ‘bigger CB’ the NFL is looking for. He tackles well, but isn’t a high energy, aggressive tackler—he is more a cover guy who can hit as needed. To be fair, the CFL passers seemed to avoid Breaux if they could…so he didn’t have as many plays to shine as he might hope.

Breaux has scratched and clawed his way to the NFL, and now works with an NFL team and defensive coordinator who appreciate bigger, sturdy CBs…so this could be interesting. For Dynasty-IDP purposes, he would not be a hot prospect pickup at this stage—nothing radical jumps off the tape, but you can see possibilities. He may be more NFL-useful, than IDP useful. However, we’ll need to see more in the preseason tape to be 100% sure.

 

R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here: The Machine via FFM

 **If you enjoy the free content on Fantasy Football Metrics.com please consider making your next Amazon purchase through our website/link partnership with Amazon. You’re going to buy something at Amazon anyway, there is no extra charge — help give us a little love! Feel free to save/bookmark this link in your favorites and you will have it for all future Amazon purchases. Thanks for your consideration! Link — Amazon.com: Online Shopping for Electronics, Apparel, Computers, Books, DVDs & more **

 

I Bet You’re Still Not Valuing Latavius Murray Properly?

Twitter @FFMetrics

*I’m getting a lot of questions the last 24-48 hours on Latavius Murray, and I know why, so let me address it for one and all…

Remember…”I’m never wrong. I’m just temporarily not right.”

Do you know how much it warms my heart to see Latavius Murray being discussed by his new offensive coordinator (Bill Musgrave) in such glowing terms? Musgrave’s exact quote: “I’m looking forward to getting on the field and finding out what he’s (Murray) all about and what his strengths are so we can tailor our run game so it’s right up his alley.”

Say what?

He said that in an NFL that uses RBs like disposable diapers these days…

In an era where Demarco Murray can lead the league in rushing and be an MVP candidate—and get offered a long-term deal like that of a really good Kicker…

In an era where no one knows who the Patriots RB will be from one week to the next…

In this day and age, an Offensive Coordinator actually singled out a young RB who was barely noticed by his previous two NFL head coaches (FYI, both fired/not retained for their brilliance), and said he would tailor the running game to him. Are you kidding me? H&R Block getting my billions back is not this exciting.

You know why it warms my heart, right?

In 2013, the NFL said Latavius Murray was a 6th-round RB talent. Miami took RB Mike Gillislee 17 picks before Murray. 50 picks prior the 49ers wasted a draft pick on RB Marcus Lattimore—a healthy Lattimore was not as good as a healthy Murray. A several-times injured Lattimore was ridiculous pick…and the same people who decided upon that also just traded Jim Harbaugh for Jim Tomsula.

In 2013, NFL Draft analysts either didn’t know who Latavius Murray was, or gave the obligatory ‘sleeper to watch’ label…but would not have the guts to include him in their top-5 or top-10 RBs in the class.

In 2013, our computer scouting models said Latavius Murray was a #1 or #2 ranked RB talent in the 2013 draft class. For which, we were deemed insane or gutsy…either way, alone on an island—which is my favorite kind of scouting island.

In 2013, many of you placed your Dynasty Rookie Draft trust in our scouting call here (and it was pretty cheap to do so). Some of you had to ‘tap out’ on him by 2013 end. Some tapped in early 2014. I can’t blame you. I had to chuck him in some leagues too. It was not Murray’s fault—it was the fact that the Raiders are friggin’ idiots. That’s a crass statement, but absolutely spot on analysis. I say it like that because I feel for Raiders fans—your own coaches and GM are authoring their demise with impunity. They could have been playing Murray all along in 2014. They didn’t, until the very end.

You can never get enough Darren McFadden or Maurice Jones-Drew, while you lose every single game you play, can you?

The Raiders have won like three games in the last decade (actually 3 of their last 19, and 4 of their last 22). What do those three wins have in common? Latavius Murray had 60 or more yards rushing in the game. All of the 16 losses in the last 19 games…Murray had less than 60 yards rushing, and usually no touches in those defeats.

Now here we all are in 2014. Some of you kept the faith all the way—and for that, the Lord (a.k.a. The Computer) hath blessed you. Some kept tabs on Murray, and scooped him off waivers when we started giving the alert 2014 mid-season. You too have been blessed.

Why are you blessed?

You probably think it is because Murray showed his skills, finally, and might be in for a very nice opportunity in 2015…you hope.

No, no, no, no, no, no…

Ladies and gentlemen…

You realize Latavius Murray is on a rocket ship ride to becoming a 2015 redraft top-10 RB, right? A possible late 1st-round pick in some 2015 redrafts? A possible late 1st-round pick in Dynasty startup, perhaps?

You don’t realize any of that because it’s not true…not yet, but it’s coming.

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The universal top-9 RBs for Fantasy Football redrafts we all see right now (and we’ll consider it for PPR):

  1. Le’Veon Bell
  2. Demarco Murray
  3. Matt Forte
  4. Eddie Lacy
  5. Jamaal Charles
  6. Marshawn Lynch
  7. Arian Foster
  8. LeSean McCoy
  9. Adrian Peterson

You can argue their order, but no doubt those nine names belong ahead of Latavius Murray in a redraft right now. Adrian Peterson is a little shaky, but understandable. Marshawn Lynch could retire for all we know, but I assume he’ll be back.

Name for me RB #10 in a PPR, right now?

C.J. Anderson? You’re kidding me, right? The 3rd best RB on his team? You gonna go to the wall on him in that tangled mess of a talented backfield?

Andre Ellington? You have to be insane.

Jeremy Hill…with Gio Bernard lurking?

Justin Forsett? Is he going to Denver with Gary Kubiak, and are they are trading the other four RBs on their roster?

Lamar Miller? Yawn.

If I pressed you to list the top-10 PPR RBs in a redraft right now–Murray has an argument for the #10 spot. If I pressed you to make a Dynasty start-up pick, he’s definitely a top-10 RB.

Where is Latavius tracking today? About 25th among redraft RBs and 15-20th among Dynasty start-up RBs.  

Latavius Murray is the #1 value among all Fantasy Football RBs right now—because outside of the top-9 RBs we all would agree upon…Murray is the one outside that list that is arguably the most gifted, and now with the O-C on his side…he would not shock you if went on to become the #1 Fantasy scorer in 2015. How many PPR RBs outside the top-9 could you say that about? Compared to where Murray is currently valued—he’s a bargain to acquire in most Dynasty leagues.

That discount window isn’t going to last long.

Hold him if you got him…he’s not a ‘sell high’ (unless a crazy deal).

Go get him if you can.

**See the 2015 NFL Draft and 2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft, like never before with our Moneyball-style scouting reports and rankings. Go to www.collegefootballmetrics.com **

 

Long live The Computer! Better than any high cost NFL Draft War Room!! Can you imagine the NFL Draft The Computer would have had in 2013 (or 2014)? We would be legendary. I’m much happier helping everyone with their Dynasty Leagues than in the NFL—more fun, less politics. Plus, I’m writing this in sweat pants from my home office.

No matter what happens with Latavius ahead…we’ll always have this moment (below)—for some an exciting moment to re-live, for others a depressing jab because you didn’t scoop him up prior to that game. Go make amends!

 

R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here: The Machine via FFM

 **If you enjoy the free content on Fantasy Football Metrics.com please consider making your next Amazon purchase through our website/link partnership with Amazon. You’re going to buy something at Amazon anyway, there is no extra charge — help give us a little love! Feel free to save/bookmark this link in your favorites and you will have it for all future Amazon purchases. Thanks for your consideration! Link — Amazon.com: Online Shopping for Electronics, Apparel, Computers, Books, DVDs & more **

 

Dynasty-Fantasy Impact of Todd Bowles on the Jets…

Twitter @FFMetrics

The ratio of NFL head coaching ‘intro’ press conferences coming off like a Saturday Night Live skit is running about a 1:1 ration right now. For every encouraging or normal or reasonable event, there occurs an event that makes you lose faith in humanity. To be fair, I just finished watching the 49ers/Jim Tomsula press conference for the third-time. Why three? One was for research. The second was for re-research to make sure I really ‘saw what I just saw’. The third was showing it to my BFF because I said, “You have to see this to believe it.”

So when I say that the Todd Bowles intro press conference was ‘normal’, I hope I captured it properly…and I’m not just comparing it to the Tomsula skit.

Todd Bowles has been ‘a name’ to be a head coach for a few years now. In fact, he was an interim head coach for Miami, when they dumped then Dolphins head coach Tony Sparano late in the 2011 season. Bowles’ name has been so thrown around it has become an ‘it’s about time’ hire. The drum has been beaten so long—this seems like a long time coming. I assumed that myself as well. However, when I went back through Bowles’ career resume, I was left wondering if this was really that hot a hire.

From 2008-2011, Todd Bowles was the secondary/assistant coach for Miami under Tony Sparano. Perhaps, I’m ignorant about coaching careers…but I would assume, as a young, up and coming positional or assistant coach that you would only want to align yourself with coaches you believed in philosophically and whom you respected. It might be a reality of: ‘You take what you can get’. I get the logic of both career paths. However, when you look at the truly great head coaches—they either came from a great ‘coaching tree’ (at the time) or they didn’t waste time grinding as positional coaches—they blazed a trail as a college head coach, and leveraged that into being in hot demand in the NFL. Chip Kelly, Pete Carroll, Jim Harbaugh were pursued, begged, and could pick and choose their NFL opportunity. I’m biased—that’s how I would hope my NFL or non-NFL coaching career would go. I’d ‘prove it’ in college, or I’d sit at the feet of a ‘master’ head coaching talent for a few years. I’m wary of ‘guy who is there’…versus guy who is a ‘maverick’. I’m wary of the guy that teams aren’t falling all over to get, despite being a name available for years.

When you look at that Todd Bowles career arc…you don’t see ‘maverick’ or ‘hotly pursued’ (College or pro).

Bowles choosing to be under Tony Sparano is ‘one strike’ to me, but it could be forgiven. I was not a fan of anything I saw in Miami with Sparano, and his interim time at Oakland, beginning with burying a football symbolically—you know what, not innovative. Not fresh. Bowles choose to be under that for three years. When Miami was given the chance to hire Bowles as head coach…they passed after 2011.

So did the rest of the league.

Perhaps, it was too early for Bowles. However, he went from assistant head coach in Miami to secondary coach for Andy Reid in Philly (2012). Not really an upgrade. The Philly defense was so maligned under Juan Castillo that season it led to Bowles being elevated to the D-C job later in the season. So far, we see Bowles’s recent NFL track as nondescript coach getting opportunities only when others flop ahead of him. There is no aggressive shoot up the ladder…there is a ‘falling upward’ trend.

Andy Reid was swept out, and Bowles was not kept either at the end of 2012—again, happenstance promotions with his employer saying, “No, thanks” after his temporary time in bigger responsibilities.

Bowles then took over as the D-C in Arizona, replacing a very talented, highly-respected D-C Ray Horton. Bowles took over a very good Arizona defense…a kept it ‘good’ for two years. That’s a positive…but not ‘radical’ or ‘eye-opening’…it’s just ‘not a failure’ on something that was working already. In the end, if I had to hire one guy to run a defense–it would be Horton over Bowles by a mile. 

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For all we know, Bowles is going to be the greatest head coach in the history of the NFL, but if I look at his path and compare it to the great, innovative coaches of the modern-day…I don’t see it. Not going to happen. But, there’s not enough history to make a definitive bet on it today…but if I am betting, I’m nervous.

The first move of the Jets new regime was to hire veteran coach Chan Gailey as the O-C, who has been out of football the past few years, and was last seen with a 16-32 record in three years as head coach of the Buffalo Bills. This doesn’t seem like a radical, ‘maverick’ move. If Gailey and/or Bowles is a genius…it doesn’t matter unless they get a franchise QB—like with every NFL coaching staff.

What Fantasy impact are we going to see with Bowles? We have Chan Gailey on offense, so likely a a little more run than pass offense, and a pretty typical/normal plan of attack—it’s going to be as good as the QBs talent are. Right now, that looks like a disaster (because of Geno), but we’ll see if the Jets make a trade for a QB or not.

Basically, whatever you thought of the Jets offensive players for Fantasy in late 2014…that’s all you can think today. Eric Decker is good, but stunted by the QB play. Chris Ivory is fine…until/if they draft an interesting RB, and then it’s back to a dual backfield. It’s all about the QB, and that could change radically within 2-3 months.

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The new Jets GM looks to be reasonable, but we have no idea what he ’sees’—he’s a long-time personnel assistant getting his first GM gig. I’ll reserve judgment on him based on his QB move for 2015. If it is another ‘we’ll fix Geno’, then “No, thanks.” If it is a reach of a QB pick at #6, then there you go. If he makes a radical trade for a talented, existing QB, then I will praise him to the moon—and the whole Jets’ Fantasy-related outlook changes.

On defense, I’d be worried. Rex Ryan’s players are loyal, and fit his system. Bowles has to win this group over, and that’s a tough act to follow on Rex. He may have to gut the group a little and rebuild…and is anyone willing to give him a ton of time to do this? There is talent on the defensive side, and Bowles has shown he can manage an existing good defense, so there is hope…but plenty to worry about.

In general, I’m not that excited today. I don’t see anything fresh yet. That could change with a bold QB move, but everything about the additions of Bowles and Gailey seems so ‘typical’, that I assume the QB strategy will be ‘typical’, and then we have the ‘typical’ Jets…scrappy, but disappointing.

 

R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here: The Machine via FFM

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So What Will Fantasy Football-Happen If The Eagles DO Trade Up For Marcus Mariota?

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So what will FF-happen if the Eagles do move up aggressively to draft Marcus Mariota?

It’s one of the biggest topics of the 2015 NFL Draft season—will Chip Kelly reunite with Marcus Mariota? The mainstream football media is ‘all in’ on this today because they start every January with their ‘most favorite’ QB prospects ranked #1-2 overall in the draft (and are almost always wrong by draft day), and they do not acknowledge that Nick Foles exists. The guy (Foles) who is 13-3 in his last 16 starts, and almost set an NFL record for overall QB efficiency as a 2nd-year player, and doing so coming off the bench–he is the guy football analysts scoff at. They love Blake Bortles, though.

I’m not here to fight the Nick Foles battle for the 8,000th time. Instead, let’s run with what the expectation is here on the rumored ‘Mariota to Philly trade up’ rumor…

I believe it is very possible that somehow Mariota will wind up in Philly. Chip Kelly is now in charge of personnel for the Eagles. He wisely believes that QB is everything, and that two are better than one. Mark Sanchez will leave via free agency. Matt Barkley (other guy Chip Kelly loved) is awful. There is no ‘real’ 2nd-QB in Philly, but Kelly will covet one tactically. I think every team, should over-invest in the QB position—and I think Chip Kelly may think the same strategic way.

Mariota obviously has a connection Kelly…and Kelly has shown a lean toward ex-players and ex-same conference players (PAC-12) who he saw up close. It’s a very normal yearning. Coaches in charge of personnel do not have time to be students of all the college talent/NFL Draft—it’s impossible. Not enough time in the day. You can shortcut all of it by leaning on what you know for sure—ex-players you’ve dealt with 1st-hand and 2nd-hand. He knows no single player greater than Marcus Mariota.

I wanted to write ‘Mariota-to-Philly’ off as a silly thing the media was pushing for a simplistic story line, but then an under-the-radar event this week made me take pause. Chip Kelly/Philly was just denied the right to talk to Tampa Bay personnel guy Jon Robinson. Did Chip really want him to join the organization—or did he want to use the interview as a front to pick his brain on the Bucs #1 pick?

In reality, I don’t think Philly would pay heavily to move up to get Mariota. I do think they’d take him if he fell later in the 1st-round—it’s cost prohibitive to do so on QBs, even as a backup/emergency guy the value outweighs the draft cost in this era of cheaper rookie contracts. However, for the sake of this article let’s run with the premise that the Eagles trade up for Mariota…

If Philadelphia does move up to take Mariota—it’s Nick Foles’ last year (or last weeks) in Philly.

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You would not trade your entire future (multiple years of top picks) for Mariota, if you did not intend to make him the franchise QB. In this trade-up scenario, Foles would project as a lame duck starter for 2015. You’re not telling me you think Mariota, a rookie, starts opening-day 2015 for Philly? Every man, woman, and child in the football community echoes that “Mariota needs to sit for a year or two”—and that he’s “not NFL-ready yet.” So why would the Eagles, a potential Super Bowl team, roll with a rookie QB in 2015? That would be absolutely insane—given Foles is experienced, and a huge ‘winner’, and has taken the team to the playoffs as a starter (2013), and would have again if healthy last season. If there were no other great QB options on the Philly roster…it would be one thing. No one in their right mind starts Mariota over Foles day-one in Philly’s team/roster situation in 2015.

…but Foles will not be a ‘lame duck’ QB in 2015.

Foles has only two real scenarios from Mariota being acquired via trading up:

(1) As just mentioned: Foles plays as a ‘lame duck’ in 2015…which is not good for business when your main employee is told, “This is your last year here. We don’t think much of you. Now go win us a title!” Foles would finish 2015, and then become the most coveted ‘true’ free agent QB in years, aside from Peyton Manning to Denver. Foles would be white hot as an unrestricted free agent in 2016.

If you trade up for Mariota, then you’re done with Foles…one way or the other. So either Foles plays a ‘lame duck’ season and leaves, or…

(2) More likely Foles gets traded, and gets a huge contract with his new team (which is the only reason a team would acquire him—to secure him long term). He becomes a franchise QB in New York, Houston, St. Louis, Cleveland, Tennessee, Buffalo, Arizona, Chicago, etc.

**See the 2015 NFL Draft and 2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft, like never before with our Moneyball-style scouting reports and rankings. Go to www.collegefootballmetrics.com **

 

Here’s what won’t happen…

There is absolutely no business logic for free agent to-be Nick Foles to watch Marcus Mariota come in via trade up, and immediately goes on to back up the rookie…holding a clipboard for a year. You’re ‘high’ if you think this. Foles (in this scenario) would be way more valuable to trade immediately and get picks back for what it took to acquire Mariota. It would basically be a Foles for Mariota deal in the end.

10+ NFL teams will be clamoring for Foles’s services the moment Mariota is traded up for. You may not like Foles, but this 2015 QB draft class is awful-looking, and more teams have QB woes than don’t. Foles will be most valuable to trade immediately…not to sit and do nothing in 2015 (besides create a QB controversy), and then quietly watch him leave in free agency in 2016.

Every logical scenario where you have Marcus Mariota being chased after by Philly, has to end in Nick Foles being traded. The single dumbest thing about a trade up for Mariota (besides actually trading up for him) would be then wasting a year on Foles on the bench before his free agency—nothing good can come from it. Mariota in, means Foles out…out to a team who desperately wants him—which is great for Fantasy Football Nick Foles.

One way or the other—Foles is a starting QB in 2015+, either for Philly…or not. Whatever Philly does… Nick Foles is in for a big contract in 2016—as the franchise QB for some NFL team…probably Philadelphia. If Foles is a franchise starter somewhere/anywhere in 2015+, then he has serious Fantasy Football value—more than the nothing-value people see him with today. Take advantage of this in Dynasty leagues.

The mainstream has disdain for Nick Foles, thus most Fantasy GMs do too. Most see him as living on borrowed time, and already benched for Mariota today—which is insane, but in the NFL ‘insane is normal’. Foles is a flimsy backup QB in many Dynasty GM’s minds, when in reality he is the NFL franchise starting QB for some team in 2015, and beyond…Philly or otherwise. Take advantage of adding this bargain in the offseason before people realize Mariota in, means Foles starts where he is wanted in 2015+.

On the other hand: What if Philly doesn’t add Marcus Mariota (gasp)? Foles FF-value then goes bananas, because now you have proven winner and FF-producer going back to the turbocharged offense.

Foles FF-wins no matter what the Eagles do. You can FF-prosper from it as an investment to use in the future, or as a quick ‘flip this house’ when his value jumps back upon his being traded, or no Mariota in. It’s the best ‘buy low, sell high’ in Fantasy Football right now.

 

R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here: The Machine via FFM

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Dynasty-Fantasy Impact of Jim Tomsula on the 49ers…

Twitter @FFMetrics

We see it all the time in life, so for sure we’re going to see it in the NFL–hiring and promotions within an organization that make absolutely no sense.

I have taken a shine, recently, to studying the person who is now a newly hired NFL head coach, and then trying to figure out their potential Fantasy Football impact on the player’s output. It started out to be a serious endeavor, and it still is (because we’re talking FF here, nothing is more important), but it has become a side study in human behavior and organizational dysfunction.

You may have taken notice that GMs and head coaches are at odds from about a week after they are paired, to the day one of both gets fired. Usually, the GM gets 2-3 laps (opportunities to hire the ‘right’ coach)…and the head coach gets 2-3 years of employment tops. If they make it three years together (GM and HC), we later find out it was a blood feud for 90% of the relationship.

I’ve never understood why if the coach is so ‘bad’ that he needs to be fired after 2-3 seasons—that the GM then gets a pass from the owner and most fans. The GM is the one who made the awful hire, right? Over and over again awful hirings, no?

I think it goes like this, just using logic and former corporate experiences: The owner is a ga-zillionaire and is somewhat out of touch. You would be too. Life is different at that level—it just is. Millions of dollars of security changes human psyche…it has to for 99% of the population. The couple of old-school, mega-wealthy businesspeople who I have had the opportunity to be around, work with, sell to, etc.—they are ‘different’. Their life is so unlike anything I am used to you, so that it seems very odd to me…but to them it is radically normal. The things they discuss, fear, etc. made no sense to me at times. They know their business/industry for sure, but not so astute on the rest of the things in the world. Not dumb…just a perspective from a much different vantage point. People buzz around them in awe and fear, and servitude (because they can afford it) all day long—it’s tough to stay street smart and gritty. Some stay hungry and humble, but I reckon most do not. It would be difficult to.

As owner, you are likely to hire a GM that ‘serves at the pleasure of the king’. Football is a side project or ‘toy’, and not life and death—the business makes millions even when you go 2-14. You are likely not hiring a rebel GM to battle with. You are not hiring ruthless aggression. You are likely hiring ruthless suck-up-titude; ruthless Bill Lumbergh types. As an owner, or even as President of the organization (who might be some kind of offspring/relation of the owner or former player of the team), do you really have your pulse on the top, young and/or aggressive NFL President and GM talents? An owner can’t be expected to. They don’t run in those circles, nor is it their vocation of expertise and experience.

More times than not, a pleasing President and GM are hired, and then they set off to go out to hire a Head Coach.

As I’ve mentioned before—the hiring and developing talent are probably the most overlooked, under-appreciated assets/abilities in Corporate America. Just because you work 25 hours a day at your craft, it doesn’t mean you possess the great skill to sit across from someone in 30-60 minute interview, and see through the con. Every interview is a con to some degree. You wear clothes you don’t normally wear. You do a thorough check for nose hairs. You look attentively at the interviewer, agreeing with everything politely. You practice for anticipated questions. None of this is normal.

You have to do this because the interviewer wants to see you dance. They expect a clean shaven, perfect hair and breath, bright-eyed and bushy-tailed act. You’re asked, “What are your strengths?” You respond, “I am super loyal and super hard-working?” OK, “What are your weaknesses?” You chime in, “I work too hard and I care too much sometimes?”

Nothing about the hiring and recruiting process is normal or natural.

I love the report that the 49ers turned away from Broncos coach Adam Gase, reportedly, for blowing the last interview. Wait. This guy is well known to all. You brought him in because you liked something. The first interviews went well, but the last one didn’t? How so? Did he point to a faux stain on the GMs shirt, and then when the GM looked down he popped him in the nose? How do you get that far in the interview process, and have a solid NFL history, and then turn everyone off last second? How is it the interview even matters—shouldn’t you already be planning/searching/seeking all the talented potential head coach candidates from other teams and college. Why isn’t that GM job #1? Why is it an open cattle call?

It’s a sad reality, but the GM is really not trying to hire the ‘best’ coach…they’re trying to hire the best person who gets along with them. They just hope/assume they can coach.

On another level, it’s a Billy Beane move in a GM’s mind—coaches are somewhat irrelevant by comparison to the acquisition and use of talent. If I were a GM, would I want to hire a coach who I knew I could not control? If I were the Falcons’ GM, I would have had two conversations with Mike Smith this year—“Get Antone Smith the ball more,” and when he didn’t the next week, then it would be: “You’re fired!” That’s not how it works. When the coach is beloved/successful…or just mid-season–it’s hard to dump them…a la Jim Harbaugh.

You have to feel for the head coaches. Many coaches have slept in car making less than welfare for many years trying to work their way up. GMs are more of an erudite class–people who coaches might classify as ‘book smart’. Whereas the head coach is more ‘junkyard dog’ smart. The two worlds don’t collide well.

Rare is a Bill Belichick—grinder coach with a master’s in economics, and raised by an excellent football coach/Dad.

Head Coaches are usually terrible personnel decision-makers and salary cap planners, but they also know they can’t be any worse than the ‘court jester’ of a GM.

The GM cannot easily find a pleasing, lackey head coach to hire, because head coaches are usually ultra-aggressive and combative. I’m watching practices at the Senior Bowl, and over and over again I see stretching and running ‘high knees’ in proper formations evoking the coaching emotion of being in a real battlefield combat situation.

The GM-Head Coach relationship is almost doomed from the start.

Thus, the impeccable head coaching resume’ of Jim Harbaugh is jettisoned. In his place now is the long-time low-level assistant coach, and recent Defensive Line coach–Jim Tomsula.

Jim Tomsula may be the nicest man on the planet. I need to preface all the following with that statement.

I watched the Jim Tomsula intro press conference, and my faith in humanity was shattered. If you have an hour to kill, go on YouTube and check it out. Nothing I write could do it justice. However, that’s not the humanity-shattering in which I am referring to.

I did research on Tomsula before I watched his press conference. He was a head coach in Europe. He was a ‘sleep in the car’ type of grinder. He coached various positions for the 49ers. He loves football. One of those guys who loves it too much. To me, he is a great position coach—he gives you 1,000% with lot of chatter on the sidelines to the players to ‘attack’ and ‘fight’…and many other clichés.

Tomsula appears to be in way, way, way over his head as a head coach. Not on the field, but as CEO of the football team. He is beyond uncomfortable talking to another human being. His radio interviews and this intro press conference make you want to cry for him. Why would the GM do this to him? This is not what he was meant for. We all have limitations. It’s General Stockdale as Ross Perot’s ill-fated Vice Presidential running mate. As a human—the best. As a candidate for political office on live television—not good.

A head coach is very much like a politician. You manage locker room egos, the press, your shark coaches who are looking to leverage into a better job. You also deal with the sniveling GM, and live in some fear of the princely owner and his royal subjects. You are beloved and hated by fans and media who have no idea what is going on. It is a bizarre existence. You either somehow grab ‘the power’ to become bigger than the organization (Belichick, and maybe Chip Kelly), or you are a politician whose main job is staying in office as long as possible—like Rex Ryan, who is superior at ‘playing’ the ‘coach’ role.

I watched the Jim Tomsula press conference, and I was filled with rage. Not at Tomsula, I felt bad for him—he should never have been in that position. I was filled with rage that the President (Jed York) and GM (Trent Baalke) selected Tomsula ahead of a million other options, and ran the one successful option out of town. They either knew Tomsula was cringe worthy, and hired him for their own gain/comfort—at the expense of 49ers fans (I bet season ticket prices went up). OR Baalke and York are just that out-of-touch. If so, what is the owner doing?

The one good thing that they had stumbled into, Jim Harbaugh, they fired for what…being successful? Their chosen ‘upgrade’/successor is potentially one of the most bizarre coaching hires in NFL history. This doesn’t give me a good feeling that ‘they’ know what they are doing in the draft or otherwise. Watching York and Baalke look at Tomsula ramble incoherently at the intro press conference, was jarring. If I were the owner, I would have pulled York and Baalke aside and fired them on the spot.

That won’t happen. Buckle up for two years of this 49ers’ fans! It’s an easy division to traverse, so good luck with all that.

**See the 2015 NFL Draft and 2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft, like never before with our Moneyball-style scouting reports and rankings. Go to www.collegefootballmetrics.com **

 

What’s the Tomsula impact from a Fantasy perspective?

I don’t need to wait to find out his offensive and defensive coordinators. I have no idea who they will be (none hired yet), but it won’t be good, because everyone who has other options or self-respect is turning the 49ers down right now. No one in their right mind would join this sinking ship. After what they did with Harbaugh, what talented, available human would join them? None. Only coaches who have no other options—ones who need the gig/paycheck. Ones who have been around the block, and have no real future (today)…they will take this gig.

So whatever weak coaches who are not innovative do—that’s what is coming to the 49ers. The defense will fade. The offense will be traditional. Free agents will bail. Available free agents will only come if overpaid to do so—like Oakland and Buffalo in years past. Colin Kaepernick will be a pocket passer in a stoic offense. Chris Borland will be the centerpiece of the defense because ‘grinders’ are going to be elevated, because that’s what Tomsula is. It will kinda be a different version of the Mike Singletary days…super-wanting to win, but not.

‘Want to’ is admirable, but it is a small part of NFL success. If this is a giant belly flop, don’t get mad at Tomsula—it’s not his fault. The 49ers’ President and GM did this to you. They took away what worked (Harbaugh), and installed this on purpose.  

 

R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here: The Machine via FFM

 **If you enjoy the free content on Fantasy Football Metrics.com please consider making your next Amazon purchase through our website/link partnership with Amazon. You’re going to buy something at Amazon anyway, there is no extra charge — help give us a little love! Feel free to save/bookmark this link in your favorites and you will have it for all future Amazon purchases. Thanks for your consideration! Link — Amazon.com: Online Shopping for Electronics, Apparel, Computers, Books, DVDs & more **

 

 

Some Key Measurements From The 2015 Senior Bowl…

Twitter @FFMetrics, @CFBMetrics

A quick summary of physical measurables from some bigger names at the Senior Bowl weigh-in event today… 

RB Cameron Artis-Payne, Auburn — came in a little small on hands/arms. He was measured: 5’9.5″, 212, 8.5″ hands, 30″ arm length.

WR Sammie Coates, Auburn — came in about as expected. 6’1.6″, 213 pounds with 9.5″ hands, 33.5′ arm length.

WR Phillip Dorsett, Miami, Fla — came in a touch smaller than I had hoped, but not bad. 5’9.5″, 183 pounds with 9.2″ hands and 31.0″ arms.

QB Garrett Grayson, Colorado State — passed the measurements tests. 6’2.2, 215 pounds, 10.3″ hands.

QB Blake Sims, Alabama — Has no real business being here at his size (as a serious prospect for the NFL). He came in at 5’11.4″, 223-pounds, with 9.0″ hands. Not good.

QB Bryce Petty, Baylor — 6’2.6″, 230-pounds, 10.0″ hands.

**See the 2015 NFL Draft and 2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft, like never before with our Moneyball-style scouting reports and rankings. Go to www.collegefootballmetrics.com **

 

Two “Stop the presses” physiques:

RB David Johnson, Northern Iowa — Wow. 6’0.6″, 224 pounds, 9.6″ hands.

RB Ameer Abdullah, Nebraska — smaller, but chiseled out of stone…5’8.2″, 198-pounds, 8.4″ hands.

 

Two large hands WRs…

WR Justin Hardy, East Carolina — Had the hand measurements you like to see: 10.0″ at 5’10.4″, 190-pounds. 

WR Ty Montgomery, Stanford — Also had nice hand measurements: 10.1″ at 5’11.6″, 216-pounds. 

 

The two sack machines on the same team (Team North):

OLB Hau’oli Kikaha, Washington — 6’2.4″, 246-pounds, 31.5″ arm length

DE Nate Orchard, Utah — 6’3.2″ 251-pounds, 10.2″ hands, 33.0″ arm length

 

R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here: The Machine via FFM

 

College Football Metrics 2015 is Alive! Opening-Day is finally here!

College Football Metrics 2015 is Alive! Opening-Day is finally here!

PLEASE READ BEFORE JUMPING IN…

We’re still moving some things around on the site, and sprucing up some cosmetic items, but the first reports are up. We wanted to get everyone access to the new reports without holding things up for some minor tweaks to come—so the 2015 access is now available.

Next week will visually look better than this week—“pardon our dust!!” (Man, do I hate that saying).

We switched to a new host for our reports—WordPress. They are one of the world-wide leaders in the blogging and web communication world. The move gives us more and quicker options for reporting, with added search-ability for users…and partners with a bigger firm that offers more behind-the-scenes  technology options (on things I’m not smart enough to understand).

– This is a new site, and is a new system for CFM, so you will create a new username and password at checkout—which can be your old user name and password for past CFM. Whatever you setup at checkout–that’s your key to entry into the 2015 reports.

– When you sign in to the new CFM it will take away from the familiar crimson pages of CFM, and to a different looking WordPress login page (a blue/white/gray sign-in page). Don’t be alarmed by that—they are the host. As soon as you sign in, then back to the CFM-looking pages.

– The first five QB reports are up, with a bunch more ready to go. We’ll be doing QB reports right up to the NFL Combine, and should have 20+ of them booked by the NFL Combine. Eventually, we’ll have about 25+ full-scale QB scouting reports with a statistical evaluation/grade/rank of 70+ QB prospects.

 — There will be a ‘Table of Contents’ type of page/spot where you can go and quickly/easily search for any report—this will be in place on our site ASAP. This will be an upgrade over our prior displays and searches. It should be in place in a few weeks—and it should make finding things easier as the report counts add up. Much easier than before.

 — Prior year’s reports, the archives for the 2012-13-14 are not on the new site just yet. They will exist on the old site until we move them over to the new site. We’re still working through that.

2014 CFM is still open for those you who have 2014 access. If you are new to CFM in 2015: email us at membersupport@collegefootballmetrics.com to set up access to archives until they all reside on our new 2015 CFM site.

 

CFM Getting Close, and a note to those getting an email from CFM…

Barring something crazy, today’s the opening day for CFM. My next post on this will be shooting the ‘starter’s pistol’ this afternoon–with details about some new things with the new website.

If you are getting an email from us today with info about your account–you signed up for 2015 before we finalized the process, and we re-created your account (same username/password you used at sign up) for the new website. Keep that email–don’t lose it. You can actually go in and poke around with what we sent you, but not all the opening-day reports are showing yet.

CFM Questions or concerns: email us at customersupport@fantasyfootballmetrics.com, and I’ll be sure myself or someone else will assist. We’re at the Senior Bowl running around in circles, so we will respond ASAP. 

 

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