Fantasy Football Metrics

2015 Preseason Week-3 Dynasty-Fantasy Recap: STL-IND (8/29/15)

Twitter @FFMetrics

tags — Fantasy Football, Andrew Luck, Nick Foles., PPR, Zurlon Tipton, ADP, Dwayne Allen, IDP, Bryce Hager, dynasty rookie draft, Josh Robinson, Tyler Varga, Tre Mason, handcuff, Benny Cunningham

 

– This was a fun 1st-half of a game to watch, as two of the NFL’s best QBs went at it—and once again, when going head-to-head, Nick Foles (10-11 for 128 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) outperformed Andrew Luck (12-21 for 161 yards, 1 TD/0 INT).

Now, I know Andrew Luck is arguably the best QB talent in the NFL, but Nick Foles is not far behind. You think I’m insane. Well, you watch and see how well he does with St. Louis—and in a tough division, not the cupcake one Luck plays in. Foles getting to the fast-track turf with a playbook that wants him to throw downfield is going to be ‘freeing’ for him.

For Fantasy Football, Nick Foles still tracks beyond the top-30+ QBs in ADP…I have no idea why this is happening? Jameis Winston is taken higher in current redrafts, which is pure insanity.

Foles is one of the best Fantasy bargains out there because he is a top-12 FF QB talent who is basically ‘free’ to acquire.

 

 — There are two receivers, one for Luck and one for Foles, who caught my eye in this game—and they are a little ‘off the grid’, per se. See if this helps anyone out there…

The guy Foles is using slyly is RB Benny Cunningham (5 carries for 5 yards, 2 rec. for 32 yards on 2 targets). Now, before you say ‘who cares?’ hear me out…

Todd Gurley is assumedly not playing the first few weeks, right?

Tre Mason, who isn’t very good to begin with, is the assumed non-Gurley starter, but he hurt his hamstring in this game—he is questionable for Week-1.

Benny Cunningham might be starting for the Rams Week-1. You got ‘RB2 issues’ coming out of a redraft? Well, here’s a bigger, arguably better Shane Vereen. The Vereen-Mike Tolbert love child. Cunningham is adept at slipping out of the backfield for passes, and Foles hit him on two smart screens in this game—both went for 16-yards each. I saw them two of them working this in training camps as well…there’s a nice little ‘connection’ here.

Even if Mason can go Week-1, Benny is getting targets—he’s the 3rd-down RB, and the better RB anyway.

It’s also another reminder that RBs are basically worthless in Fantasy Football…or not worth the values we’re all assigning to them. If Tre Mason is out, I would look at starting Cunningham over a lot of other assumed RB2s in a PPR for Week-1, because of his pass-catching skills…even against Seattle in the opener.

The guy Luck is using a little more/differently this preseason is TE Dwayne Allen (2 rec. for 25 yards on 5 targets). Allen could be, COULD BE a mild shocker this FF-season at Tight End. I have been anti-Allen since day-one for FF-purposes, because he has been a 265+ pound boat anchor speed TE who lucked out with Luck, and caught a TD every other game on 1-2-3 targets per game. Allen, to me, was a great blocker who was fortunate to slip away undetected for a few TDs with Luck.

This season, entering a free agent year, Allen has shed weight. He looks leaner and spryer. Allen was working like a Luck security blanket in this game, but instead of his usual, occasional slipping off a block and going over-the-middle 3-8 yards and turning for a catch with little extra juice to get away from defenders—Allen ran his familiar patterns, but was giving some quicker (for him) moves after the catch. Allen seems committed to being more than a blocking TE who scores some TDs—he looks like he is trying to be the total package.

The main Tight End who works with Luck, who has some skills, is going to FF-prosper.

I’m not sure Coby Fleener has played this preseason. He may have retired, I don’t know. I just know I see a lot of Luck-to-Allen action, and it looks better than it has before.

 

 — Zurlon Tipton (3 carries for 15 yards) worked behind Josh Robinson (5 carries for 4 yards, 1 rec. for 4 yards on 1 target) in this game. It’s either to push Robinson ahead, or to get one last look before a roster spot decision is made. I’ll assume, that I’m insane because I like Tipton—and no one else does. I would therefore assume the Colts will stay with Robinson because ‘draft status’.

I’m OK with it—hoping Tipton lands in a better place. Most likely, his candle is growing dim, and the odds he ever gets a real shot is becoming nonexistent.

The RB who should make the team ahead of both of them is Tyler Varga (6 carries for 16 yards and 1 TD, 3 rec. for 19 yards on 3 targets). I think Varga has been super-impressive this preseason—in brief glimpses. He’ll likely be put on the practice squad, and no other RB-desperate general manager will have paid attention enough to snag him away before opening-day.

**See the 2015 NFL Draft and 2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft, like never before with our Moneyball-style scouting reports and rankings. ALSO, USE THIS FOR SCOUTING ALL THE LESSER-NAMED, IN-SEASON FF-WAIVER GUYS THAT POP UP!! Go to www.collegefootballmetrics.com**

 

 — The linebacker corps are too deep to see him starting for a few years, but Rams rookie IDP Bryce Hager (4 tackles, 1 TFL) has been terrific this preseason. Kwon Anderson is going to start for Tampa Bay, while Hager will play special teams and ‘left bench’ for the next 2-3 years in St. Louis. Hager could be a pushed starter right now, but STL doesn’t need it. If one of the Rams starting ILBs goes down—‘game on’ with Hager as a solid fill-in/IDP producer.

 

**Our ever-evolving, ever-updating to opening-day, Moneyball scouted, 2015 Fantasy Football e-Draft Guide and Cheat Sheets are available now. Direct link: Draft Guide 2015 options**

 

 

Link to Amazon for FFM: FFM link to Amazon

===========================================

We chose Amazon as our main advertising partner years ago, and they have been spectacular to work with. We chose them because it doesn’t cost you anything, and everyone should be saving time, money, and shipping costs buying stuff from Amazon.

It is a huge help for us if you click through the banner or link below before you shop on Amazon. Your shopping experience is the same, and prices do not change—we just get credit from Amazon on your normal activity. Feel free to click, and then save the webpage as a favorite on your computer so we’re with you forever!! OR copy and paste, and email to people who are Amazon shoppers in your circle—and don’t compete with you in Fantasy Football!! Thank you!

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2015 Fantasy Football Draft Guide Update MON 8/31/15 (7:00pm ET)

tags — 2015 Fantasy Football Draft guide, dynasty rookie draft, ADP, PPR, rankings, sleepers

 

Players added since last update:  none

Players with commentary ‘updates’ from breaking news:  Player Valuation report updated 8/29 + ADPs all updated from last few days of redraft data 

Projection changes based on latest news and info (noted with ‘+’ or ‘–‘ on the Draft Guide):  Montee Ball,  John Brown, Kirk Cousins, Justin Forsett, Chris Ivory, Kevin Norwood, Breshad Perriman, DeAndre Smelter, Zac Stacy, Julius Thomas, Shane Vereen, Danny Woodhead

 

Current Draft Guide Player Count (projected, and with commentary): 608 players 

*100+ Offensive Rookies projected with commentary

 

TO GET THE LATEST DRAFT GUIDE DATA: REFRESH or RELOAD (right click, and select the refresh or reload…or hit F5/update option) your open web page with Draft Guide or Cheat Sheet showing.

*Worst case: close out of your open web page, and re-click original draft guide link to be auto-connected with the latest. Date on bottom of any page should show: 8/30/15.

 

Any Draft Guide Technical Issues: Email us at customersupport@fantasyfootballmetrics.com

=======================================

 

*The Overall top-24 PPR and non-PPR player rankings/valuations (and a few thousand words of commentary) for the FF-Draft are loaded on a new report for 2015.

Either re-click your original link, or refresh that home page/menu options page–the new report will be the first option above the different ways you can view the draft guide reports.*

 

**Our ever-evolving, ever-updating to opening-day, Moneyball scouted, 2015 Fantasy Football e-Draft Guide and Cheat Sheets are available now. Direct link: Draft Guide 2015 options **

 

2015 Preseason Week-3 Dynasty-Fantasy Recap: NYJ-NYG (8/29/15)

Twitter @FFMetrics

tags — Fantasy Football, Odell Beckham Jr., PPR, Shane Vereen, ADP, Cooper Taylor, IDP, Landon Collins, dynasty rookie draft, Geremy Davis, Ryan Nassib, Chris Ivory, Bilal Powell, handcuff, Zac Stacy

 

Shane Vereen (3 carries for 9 yards, 3 rec. for 30 yards on 3 targets) was impressive here—in an ‘extended look’ game for the 1st-team. This was what we were hoping for: Vereen’s going to be very involved in the passing game. He may catch 3-7+ passes per game this season, and never lower than three. It’s a beautiful thing for PPR.

It’s the perfect setup. Opponent’s eyes (and legs) have a tendency to wander towards Odell Beckham Jr., and as OBJ goes medium-deep, there’s a whole lotta space for Vereen to wander out into the flat. Vereen, for his part, looked in top form in this game. He is moving quickly on pass routes and off-tackle runs–he looks very comfortable in this offense.

I feel better with Vereen after seeing this ‘normal’ Giants offense in the Week-3 preseason ‘preview’ of things to come.

 

 — Odell Beckham Jr. (5 rec. for 31 yards on 6 targets) finally caught a pass in this preseason!! Actually, he caught five of them. Actually, he caught six of them if you count a surreal one-handed catch he made in this game—it was as nearly as good as the ‘famous’ one from last year, but his feet landed out of bounds (and an offsides on the play). I’m planning to put this play on the FFM Twitter today. I assume all the highlight shows displayed it, but in case you rightfully don’t watch any of them, you can see it there.

OBJ made several catches on short passes, simple plays that he’ll see all game/all season long. I keep going back & forth on whether he should be the #1 ranked WR for Fantasy or #2.

What’s more impressive is that his amazing one-hander in this game was Beckham Jr. just toying with Darrelle Revis. I’ve seen OBJ put the fear of God into Richard Sherman and Darrelle Revis—and that’s incomprehensible. It’s usually the other way around. Revis literally could not handle Odell Beckham Jr. in most one-on-one scenarios; OBJ can pretty much get open any time he wants. It’s breathtaking how dominant he looks in the pros, versus how ‘nice’/solid/good he looked at LSU. Someone at LSU you should be fired for wasting all that talent in 2013.

 

 — Zac Stacy (13 carries for 60 yards, 1 rec. for 24 yards and 1 TD on 2 targets) made a last-ditch effort to impress the Jets, or any other team, with his best game of the 2015 preseason. Stacy is the best of Ivory-Powell all in one, but that’s not like an amazing compliment…it is what it is. Stacy’s a solid NFL RB…not great. I think he’s better to use, NFL-wise, than Ivory…because Ivory is awful in the passing game. You can roll with Stacy all three downs.

Most likely, Stacy will be cut. Perhaps, he’ll start for Houston Week-1…kidding. He’s not better/worse than Alfred Blue or Chris Polk. He is worthy of starting for the Jets, but it appears there is no hope of that.

 

 — Can I just say it again, for my own entertainment—Ryan Nassib (11-18 for 122 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) is a fantastic QB, and could start for at least 10+ teams in the NFL right now. Let me get a little crazy here: Ryan Nassib reminds me of young Aaron Rodgers. I’m not sure his instinct is on par with Rodgers, but it’s close—and Nassib has a cannon arm with a rapid release, plus he reads defenses like a veteran starter. The fact he is an NFL ‘nobody’, but Jameis Winston and Blake Bortles are ‘pushed’ is criminal.

I remember being on XM Radio Fantasy channel as a guest the year of Nassib’s NFL Draft (2013), before I got banned from ever being on again. I told the hosts and the audience, pre-Draft, that Geno Smith and Matt Barkley (Gene-Barkley were thought to be #1-2 overall at the time) were ‘not good’, and Ryan Nassib, to me, was the superior QB prospect. That was heresy at the time.

**See the 2015 NFL Draft and 2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft, like never before with our Moneyball-style scouting reports and rankings. ALSO, USE THIS FOR SCOUTING ALL THE IN-SEASON FF-WAIVER GUYS THAT POP UP!! Go to www.collegefootballmetrics.com**

 

Two IDPs who caught my attention from this game:

1) Giants Safety Cooper Taylor (3 tackles, 1 sack, 1 TFL) finally got some good playing time (has been injured a bunch), and accounted of himself well—as a tackler. If he ever gets to start, keep an eye on it. We will.

Cooper is a 6’2” monster of a Safety, with nice athleticism, who was a star at D2 Richmond a few years back. I don’t know what he fully brings to the table (hasn’t been seen much in the NFL), but our computer thought he had ‘starter’ skills for the NFL, coming out of college.

2) Rookie IDP Safety Landon Collins (3 tackles, 2 solo) will likely get one of the Safety starting spots for NYG. He was moving around pretty well in this game. I just think there will be a possible issue here—he is straight-line fast, and sketchy east-west in coverage. He’s bulked up like an OLB, but plays Strong Safety. He’s going to make hits, but could be a liability in coverage. He should be IDP solid for tackle counts, though.

 

**Our ever-evolving, ever-updating to opening-day, Moneyball scouted, 2015 Fantasy Football e-Draft Guide and Cheat Sheets are available now. Direct link: Draft Guide 2015 options**

 

 

Link to Amazon for FFM: FFM link to Amazon

===========================================

We chose Amazon as our main advertising partner years ago, and they have been spectacular to work with. We chose them because it doesn’t cost you anything, and everyone should be saving time, money, and shipping costs buying stuff from Amazon.

It is a huge help for us if you click through the banner or link below before you shop on Amazon. Your shopping experience is the same, and prices do not change—we just get credit from Amazon on your normal activity. Feel free to click, and then save the webpage as a favorite on your computer so we’re with you forever!! OR copy and paste, and email to people who are Amazon shoppers in your circle—and don’t compete with you in Fantasy Football!! Thank you!

===========================================

 

2015 Preseason Week-3 Dynasty-Fantasy Recap: CLE-TB (8/29/15)

Twitter @FFMetrics

tags — Fantasy Football, Dwayne Bowe, Brian Hartline, Doug Martin, PPR, Josh McCown, ADP, Kwon Alexander, IDP, Jameis Winston, dynasty rookie draft, Duke Johnson, handcuff, Mike Glennon

 

– I’m not sure I can find the right combination of words in the English language to express the complete fraud, and cover up, taking place with Jameis Winston (6-15 for 90 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) as a football ‘talent’ from football analysts.

Let’s set the scene, and review where we are at in our story before this game: Jameis Winston was awful in his Week-1 preseason debut. He threw passes the way someone who played QB in high school 20-years ago, and then stopped playing football since, but was called down from the stands to that very day to play QB for the Buccaneers. It was really bad—bad from the perspective from someone who observes this stuff for a living. He did run for a goal-line-ish TD, so the media had its one highlight to loop all week.

In Week-2 of the preseason, the team reeled in Winston with more short, simple passes—and it was still dicey; just not as dicey as the meltdown of Week-1. There was no ‘progression’ from Winston, only concerted ‘protection’ from him looking bad.

The media has been beautiful for 2+ weeks during all this. They have been somewhere between ‘Oh, you know the preseason doesn’t matter’ and ‘Look, at the video of his ‘cool’ TD runs and this one medium pass Winston completed—gosh, he’s great’.

So here we are in Week-3…the big test. The extended look for ‘the starters’.

Thank you to God, who allowed the NFL.com game to be made available from the Tampa Bay network-side of things. It’s not as fun watching Winston without ‘the Machine’ comically pushing him with overtly biased ‘State sponsored’ coverage.

This game opened up, as all preseason games do, with some video editor putting together a 30-second, super-serious propaganda piece about ‘protecting this house’ or ‘all for one’ or ‘do your job’ or ‘this is OUR time’ or whatever other nonsense Under Armour and Nike can fit on T-shirts to sell to pre-teens…but also doubles as clichés that NFL head coaches who make millions of dollars per year can yell at grown men football players who many make millions of dollars a year. It’s all very nonsensical, but expected and unquestioned. The Tampa Bay lead-in video was, of course, cherry-picking Winston’s three best plays of the preseason shown in a slow-motioned montage as a deep-voiced voiceover guy says something overly-serious about, “This field general who is getting better by the moment…” After watching it, I almost believed Winston was wonderful with ‘no worries’ myself.

The Tampa home announcers, of course, danced right into how much better Winston is getting—and how they were looking forward to him taking his ‘next step’ in Week-3 of the preseason. Now, the funny part of the announcers was watching them cover up for Winston after every bad throw in this game. I don’t mean ‘rookie-bad’ throws. I mean throws that leaves football commentators speechless for a split-second.

To hear the paid-by-the-team-please-god-don’t-fire-me duo describe it this game, Winston was just the victim of bad O-Line play and ‘exotic defenses’ being used by Cleveland. You’re going to hear that one a lot—bad O-Line play, a ‘young group’. It’s the perfect excuse because Winston is going to get sacked a ton, because (a) he has the speed of a bag of bricks in the pocket, and (b) he’s so indecisive—and his indecisiveness is going to an all-new level each week because he’s afraid to the throw the ball because his decisions are ridiculous, but he is totally panicked to get hit as well…so what is one to do? Take a sack or throw blindly to avoid the pain? He seems to give both sides equal attention—in this game he took on four sacks in 2.5 quarters, and completed 40.0% of his passes…and 6.6% of them to the other team. ‘Bad O-Line’ was what they attached to old Texans, #1 draft pick total flop, David Carr…and it will be trotted out here. Tampa does have a shaky O-Line, turbocharged by blocking for the worst starting QB in the NFL times 100.

You might think because I was anti-Winston the first time I watched him play in 2013 (FSU vs. Clemson, where FSU rolled Clemson), and then was negative in a scouting report in after his freshman year, and then officially negative after fully scouting him for the pros after last season—you might think I am ‘seeing what I want to see’…or that I’m judging him too hard based on the preseason. I get that.

I literally cannot tell you how many hours of video study I have on college-to-NFL QBs over the past 5-7 years, along with the sheer amount of NFL games I’ve watched live and then re-watched. I wouldn’t be surprised if God had a counter, and announced that I had logged the most video time of any human on Earth. I say that as a precursor to say, “Winston’s preseason work is probably as ‘bad’ as I have seen from a (media) highly rated, young QB.” I thought he would be sloppy right away, but I could have never imagined it was this bad—that our computer models were this ‘right’ about him.

You expect ‘rookie mistakes’ in the preseason from rookie QBs. You expect a timing throw to be made without looking, and a DB jumps the route. You expect a throw into coverage that ‘they wish they had back’. I’m not coming at this with lofty standards. I mean to proclaim, Jameis Winston is making throws that bad, never-to-play-in-the-NFL, college QBs make. Throws 10 feet over the head of the targets, or five-yards behind them, or throws without ever changing his stare down of a receiver and just throwing into a crowd. It is breathtakingly bad.

Winston makes throws that are so bad, that the announcers have to pause to come up with a plausible cover up/excuse. He made a throw so bad in this game that the defense was taken aback—they weren’t prepared for had sad the throw was. His passes are so aimless and desperate, and ill-conceived, that I like to think the other teams kinda feel sorry for him—like ‘they know’ what their witnessing, and they can see the fear and struggle in his eyes and body language…and ‘they know’.

I was 95% sure we scouted Winston properly in January 2015. I deducted 5% because I am human (to a degree). When everyone in the football business in our known galaxy was standing on one side of the argument, and I was totally alone standing on the other side—I did start wondering “Am I crazy?” or “Is this the one where I am humiliated by being wrong?” After watching Winston’s first three preseason games in 2015, now I am 110% sure we are right with our Winston scouting. This is not going to work. Winston hopes he gets that one lucky Josh Freeman season that will have people proclaiming him America’s next great, young QB…because he’ll be lucky to be as good as Josh Freeman in the end.

After Winston was done with his work in this game, the Tampa announcers glossed it over with: “Well, he’s got good stuff to build on after this game.” That he does.

That he does…

**See what crystal ball scouting of Jameis Winston looked like months and years ago…and see the 2015 NFL Draft and 2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft, like never before with our Moneyball-style scouting reports and rankings. ALSO, USE THIS FOR SCOUTING ALL THE IN-SEASON FF-WAIVER GUYS THAT POP UP!! Go to www.collegefootballmetrics.com**

 

 — Side note, I could argue the Tennessee Titans DST is one of the most interesting plays of Week-1 versus Jameis Winston. Currently, Fantasy Pros ranks Tennessee as the 25th best DST to consider in Week-1.

 

 — Because Winston is so bad, you kinda want to throw Mike Evans (DNP) FF-stock in the trash. The one thing to hold onto hope with Evans: Winston may be so bad it forces the very capable, far superior to Winston, Mike Glennon (6-13 for 64 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) into the lineup quickly—and that would be FF-great for Evans.

You may look at Glennon’s stat line from this game, and think it’s nothing special either, but there is a massive difference. Glennon, working with backup WRs (who are soon-to-be-cut) in the 2nd-half, had half+ of his incompletions as ‘drops’/passes ‘real’ WRs will catch. So too did Winston—half his incompletions should have been caught too, by the defense.

I’m not going to waste any more energy on trying to prove Glennon is better, because no one believes me or cares—and because it won’t matter, because if Tampa Bay is stupid enough to hand Winston the starting job out of training camp, then they are stupid enough to roll through an entire season making excuses with him. All involved in this decision, from the GM to the coach playing him right away—should be fired when it comes unraveled quickly into this season. Winston’s not ready for this, and everyone should see that…they don’t…or don’t want to. They are torpedoing his career.

You would think a switch to Glennon is coming soon to FF-save Evans, but it is 50-50 at best, and by the time it happens—your FF-season could already be on the ropes.

 

 — I wish I had an interesting Cleveland note from this game, but I don’t. I noted that Brian Hartline and Dwayne Bowe, the two ‘big’ Cleveland WR acquisitions this offseason combined with the other ‘big’ offseason move, Josh McCown, to combine together to tally 1 catch for 3 yards on 6 targets in this game. I just watched the Browns 1st-team offense in this game, and shook my head—how does it get this bad? It’s not even bad luck—you have to purposefully make these horrible personnel decisions. It can’t be ‘luck’ (bad). A great defense, led by a fantastic defensive coach, and a nightmare offense. Another letdown in Cleveland coming.

They could have drafted Brett Hundley and had at least a flicker of hope. But, I guess they needed to draft more backup defensive players and practice squad bound O-Linemen—critical to the operation in a ‘QB means everything’ league.

Tampa Bay and Cleveland deserve, they’ve earned, everything about to happen to them this season…and subsequent ones.

 

 — Tampa rookie LB IDP Kwon Alexander (5 tackles, 4 solo, 1 sack, 2 TFL) was very active in this game. He is holding his own, and then some, in this preseason. He’s definitely starting this season. We don’t see a star here, but should be IDP useful for deeper IDP leagues.

 

 — Doug Martin (9 carries for 40 yards and 1 TD) had a real nice TD run in this game, and looked good—but also ran into several brick walls. Obviously, the Winston-issue is not going to help Martin go to a superstar FF-level, but he might get a decent PPR bump in getting several screen passes from the ‘incompetent one’.

Mike Glennon would change everything, positively, for Martin as well.

 

 — How did Duke Johnson (1 carry for 4 yards, 1 rec. for 1 yard on 2 targets) look? Not sure. He was only in for a blip before he got hurt…again. From what I saw, he looked like every solid 205-pound RB in the NFL, and probably the 3rd-most interesting RB on the Browns roster.

 

**Our ever-evolving, ever-updating to opening-day, Moneyball scouted, 2015 Fantasy Football e-Draft Guide and Cheat Sheets are available now. Direct link: Draft Guide 2015 options**

 

 

Link to Amazon for FFM: FFM link to Amazon

===========================================

We chose Amazon as our main advertising partner years ago, and they have been spectacular to work with. We chose them because it doesn’t cost you anything, and everyone should be saving time, money, and shipping costs buying stuff from Amazon.

It is a huge help for us if you click through the banner or link below before you shop on Amazon. Your shopping experience is the same, and prices do not change—we just get credit from Amazon on your normal activity. Feel free to click, and then save the webpage as a favorite on your computer so we’re with you forever!! OR copy and paste, and email to people who are Amazon shoppers in your circle—and don’t compete with you in Fantasy Football!! Thank you!

===========================================

 

2015 Fantasy Football Draft Guide Update SUN 8/30/15 (7:15pm ET)

tags — 2015 Fantasy Football Draft guide, dynasty rookie draft, ADP, PPR, rankings, sleepers

 

Players added since last update:  none

Players with commentary ‘updates’ from breaking news:  Player Valuation report updated 8/29 + ADPs all updated from last few days of redraft data 

Projection changes based on latest news and info (noted with ‘+’ or ‘–‘ on the Draft Guide):  LeGarrette Blount, Sam Bradford, Arian Foster, Jimmy Garoppolo, Melvin Gordon, Rashad Greene, Garrett Hartley, DeSean Jackson, Andre Johnson, Jarvis Landry, Marqise Lee, Jordan Matthews, Ty Montgomery, Richard Rodgers, Myles White, Danny Woodhead

 

Current Draft Guide Player Count (projected, and with commentary): 606 players 

*100+ Offensive Rookies projected with commentary

 

TO GET THE LATEST DRAFT GUIDE DATA: REFRESH or RELOAD (right click, and select the refresh or reload…or hit F5/update option) your open web page with Draft Guide or Cheat Sheet showing.

*Worst case: close out of your open web page, and re-click original draft guide link to be auto-connected with the latest. Date on bottom of any page should show: 8/30/15.

 

Any Draft Guide Technical Issues: Email us at customersupport@fantasyfootballmetrics.com

=======================================

 

*The Overall top-24 PPR and non-PPR player rankings/valuations (and a few thousand words of commentary) for the FF-Draft are loaded on a new report for 2015.

Either re-click your original link, or refresh that home page/menu options page–the new report will be the first option above the different ways you can view the draft guide reports.*

 

**Our ever-evolving, ever-updating to opening-day, Moneyball scouted, 2015 Fantasy Football e-Draft Guide and Cheat Sheets are available now. Direct link: Draft Guide 2015 options **

 

2015 Preseason Week-3 Dynasty-Fantasy Recap: GB-PHI (8/29/15)

Twitter @FFMetrics

tags — Fantasy Football, Jordan Matthews, Jeff Janis, PPR, Randall Cobb, ADP, Demarco Murray, Darren Sproles, IDP, Eric Rowe, Nelson Agholor, dynasty rookie draft, Ty Montgomery, Brett Hundley, Tim Tebow, Sam Bradford, Rajon Neal, handcuff, Eddie Lacy

 

First things first, I don’t know that history would predict a team that looks terrific in the preseason always translates over to the same fate in the regular-season, but if they do—the Eagles are going to go undefeated this season. They aren’t just beating teams in the preseason—they are annihilating them from the opening kickoff. It was 25-0 Eagles after one-quarter here.

As I mentioned last week, it looks like the Eagles offense is playing with 13-15 guys on the field—and they were allowed to do so again this week. There’s always someone absolutely wide-open on every passing play. This is either a slick team looking good in practice against teams that aren’t really trying…OR this IS the masterpiece Chip Kelly was trying to put together all along.

The four main cogs why Philly looks so good this preseason, and the Fantasy-angle on each…

1) IF Sam Bradford (10-10 for 121 yards, 3 TD/0 INT) stays healthy for 16-games, he is going to be the single-best Fantasy bargain of any QB this season. He is perfect for this Chip Kelly offense—Bradford is a great ‘short-passer’. Nick Foles, to me, is a superior all-around QB, but he wants to work the passing game downfield—because he can. The Chip Kelly offense wants short, safe, complete passes with no huddles and the clock always running. Bradford is running it like a maestro so far—in a very small sample size this preseason.

It’s all fun and games, until someone gets hurt. The re-injury potential on Bradford is nerve-wracking. If you can look past that—you got something here.

The other way this ‘feel-good story’ might collapse is if teams take away the short game more in the regular-season, instead of playing back in soft zones—and Bradford has trouble adjusting to reality. We won’t know until the real-deal begins.

Side note: How important is ‘playbook’ and ‘endless practice’ when Bradford can come into Philly from another team, not be able to work with the offense in any fast-paced/contact situation while rehabbing, and just waltz in and start tearing up defenses as if he’s played in this system his whole life? Kudos to Chip Kelly…unless Bradford gets hurt…then the Eagles fans are going to run Chip back to college.

Right now, the only place Chip Kelly looks to be running—is to the Super Bowl. I am torn, emotionally because I want to punch him for dissing Nick Foles, but I more want Chip Kelly to pick up the NFL and its old-fashioned ways and body slam it on its head.

 

2) This Eagles defense is insane. I’ll tell you what—you aren’t running anywhere on them…unless it’s in garbage time. That defensive front line is scary.

Much like the offense, the defense is: Get a bunch of good and great players, and play a unique 180-degree opposite style of the traditional ‘way’—and positive chaos will ensue.

If Philly beats Atlanta and Dallas to start the year—they are a threat to run the table (with a healthy Bradford).

If Philly starts 0-2, then all this preseason hype was a bunch of noise that got squashed when defenses started taking things seriously.

 

3) Jordan Matthews (3 rec. for 51 yards on 3 targets) is quickly becoming one of the best WRs in all the NFL. I don’t mean—“Ohhh, the ‘system’ is going to jack his numbers” good…so not like Randall Cobb-good. I mean one of the most polished, gifted WRs in the game—like a very tall Antonio Brown.

Remember, when football analysts really didn’t like Jordan Matthews coming out of Vanderbilt for the 2014 NFL Draft? Too many ‘drops’, they claimed. How’s their Marqise Lee doing? Sammy Watkins sure is on the tip of everyone’s tongue!

I get to do a TD dance here on Matthews, because if you were a College Football Metrics subscriber, then you know how highly we had him rated months before his NFL Draft.

 

4) The Eagles are wisely rotating around their RBs, and that’s the way NFL running games should be handled—unpredictable, hot-hand, situational rotations. It’s just that the Eagles paid way too much payroll for the current configuration.

Demarco Murray (6 carries for 28 yards, 2 rec. for 12 yards on 2 targets) is the lead, but Ryan Mathews 7 carries for 22 yards, 2 rec. for 12 yards on 2 targets) and Darren Sproles (2 rec. for 41 yards and 1 TD on 2 targets) pop up at various times. There’s going to be a lot of up and down, and in and out FF-performances for Murray—a FF-risk for how highly he gets drafted these days. It’s NFL-brilliant, but will be FF-maddening to some degree.

 

 — I was blown away by all thing’s Eagles, but my happiest notes from this game: Brett Hundley (22-31 for 315 yards, 2 TD/1 INT, 3 carries for 15 yards) shook off the nerves, and looked much, much better in his 3rd-preseason appearance. He got the start here, and worked for three-quarters. He showed very well despite losing almost the entire starting O-Line, and having no Jordy-Cobb (hurt 1st-play)…and facing the Philly 1st-team defense for a stretch.

Hundley’s performance reminded me a little of early Russell Wilson and Teddy Bridgewater. Both of those QBs looked sloppy in their first couple of appearances, and had rough stat-lines, but really showed some moments if you painstakingly studied each play. NFL analysts look at box scores and highlights along with their preconceived notions when ‘scouting’ a QB…so most times the young QB’s evolution is happening right under their noses.

Nearly everyone in Fantasy and reality was calling for Russell Wilson’s head 3-4 games into his rookie season—they wanted Matt Flynn. I told you during the midst of that stretch that something was developing with RW if you looked close enough, it was something everyone was missing. 18 months later, he won a Super Bowl.

Teddy Bridgewater was basically labeled ‘a mess’ pre-NFL Draft, and his mid-season takeover last year was statistically ugly for 3-4-5 games. I told you something magical was starting to shine through in his clunky, early performances—I could see what he was doing, he just needed to get more reps. Teddy is now beloved by all the analysts who would like you to forget they condemned him pre-Draft as they sided with Blake Bortles and Johnny Manziel.

I saw the first glimpses of ‘something’ with Hundley in this preseason game. Hundley was making multiple reads of the receivers, and was not afraid to work the middle of the field—a place most QBs throw blindly or just avoid at all costs. This is the Hundley ‘I know’ from my scouting of him earlier this year.

On his first throw of the game, 3rd & 9, he threw a nice ball past a tight coverage defender, and into Randall Cobb’s hands for a first down. Cobb came down funny, hurt his shoulder, and let go of the ball—it was challenged, but ruled an incomplete. It was a great throw, backed up in his own territory against a menacing defense. It went down as an incompletion—but it was a big statement right off the bat.

Later, in the 1st-quarter, Hundley threw a pick-six over-the-middle. Walter Thurmond broke on it, and walked in the end-zone. You know what Hundley did on his first pass after that? He went right at the same part of the field, laced a strike to Ty Montgomery (2 rec. for 71 yards on 3 targets) between two defenders thrown in a way Ty could catch and go—and it went for 52-yards…and nearly the distance for a TD.

When Hundley had a bad throw in this contest, he typically came right back firing a better/corrected one. I was wildly impressed with his ‘moxie’. Now, to be sure, 30% of the time he was jittery and wide-eyed making silly mistakes, but I expect that from him on this stage at this moment in his career (ignored 3rd-stringer). What I want to see right now is that 30% of the time he also makes some good-great plays—he didn’t do that game’s 1-2 of the preseason, he did more so in this game.

Hundley needs a year of grooming before you really see something. He’ll get four-years grooming with Green Bay. He’ll be some team’s franchise QB in the future–if any of them are paying attention. Seeing where he was drafted…they’re not.

Watching Jameis Winston this week, and last, and his debut two weeks ago, and comparing to Hundley this week—it sickens me how any person employed to judge football could put all their stock into Winston, and totally ignore Hundley. If Hundley got the initial push that Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston got from their coaches, and was drafted by Buffalo or Cleveland or Jacksonville—those sad sack teams would be set at QB for a decade. Instead, Hundley will be forgotten for years, and those three teams just mentioned will probably start 2-3-4-5-6 different QBs while Hundley sits idle in Green Bay for nearly all of Donald Trump’s Presidential 1st-term. It’s not right. It’s not fair to Hundley that most everyone paid to analyze young QBs in the NFL is awful at it.

 

 — Tim Tebow (2-2 for 15 yards) came in for the first two ‘point after TDs’ in this game. He ran a draw from the shotgun first—and got stuffed. He tried to throw for ‘two’ on his second attempt—and tossed a horrific, incomplete pass. Philly wants to go for more ‘twos’, but it may be without Tebow—and that helps Bradford’s FF-numbers.

 

 — Jeff Janis (3 rec. for 72 yards and 1 TD on 3 targets) got loose for a 29-yard TD catch very late in this game. He got a step, and had a ball perfectly thrown to him. It was just a play with a soon-to-be cut 4th-string QB vs. a 4th-string defense in a merciful ending in the 4th-quarter. There was nothing Jordy-like happening with Janis in this game. He’s just is really fast versus weaker or unaware DBs. He can outrun many DBs one-on-one; that’s his gift. His gift is not being a #1/all-around/possession WR.

 

 — Packers RB Rajon Neal (4 carries for 23 yards, 5 rec. for 61 yards and 1 TD on 5 targets) really looks solid as the Packers #3 RB (presumed). He’s battled a lot of injuries over the years, but he looks a lot better this season. A lot has to happen for him to matter in FF-2015.

 

 – Nelson Agholor (2 rec. for 11 yards on 4 targets) was quiet in this game. For those loving him in for an upcoming Dynasty Rookie Draft, or who already took him, I wouldn’t sweat it—Bradford mostly worked the RBs in the passing game, and then Jordan Matthews was always open.

This will be the FF-issue with Agholor for FF-2015: He’s a solid player/prospect on a team with lots of weapons, and he’s the most inexperienced one of them. There’s going to be a lot of ‘up & down’ activity with him for FF-2015. He’ll be more WR3 useful than not this season, but strong WR2…or a WR1—I don’t see how.

 

**Our ever-evolving, ever-updating to opening-day, Moneyball scouted, 2015 Fantasy Football e-Draft Guide and Cheat Sheets are available now. Direct link: Draft Guide 2015 options**

 

 

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2015 Preseason Week-3 Dynasty-Fantasy Recap: NE-CAR (8/28/15)

Twitter @FFMetrics

tags — Fantasy Football, Jimmy Garoppolo, Tom Brady, PPR, Greg Olsen, ADP, Reggie Wayne, IDP, Shaq Thompson, dynasty rookie draft, Cameron Artis-Payne, Jonathan Stewart, handcuff, Mike Tolbert, Aaron Dobson

 

– I looked over the box score before I studied the game video, and saw Jimmy Garoppolo’s (13-17 for 126 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) stat line, and thought: “Another great game, nearly completing all his passes. He’s really coming on.

That belief wasn’t necessarily true after watching reality…

Garoppolo is fine, and does look like a Brady-clone. There are no general worries long-term, BUT his first pass in this game should have been a pick-six, and it was a horrible decision…and a terrible (mechanically) throw. I’m not sure I’ve seen him throw a worse pass going back to his Eastern Illinois days. About two throws after that opening horror, he threw another pass very similar…and it was dropped by the defender as well. After that, he was pretty much his usual ‘solid’ self.

His odd struggles on two early throws re-reminded me: It’s asking a lot for a guy, who has never started to open up the NFL season on Thursday Night Football with Brady watching from the sidelines to go out there and ‘look brilliant’. He’s going to be a little jumpy to start that game. I wanted to pick the Pats in an office pool thing I play in vs. the Steelers Week-1, but I just switched my pick to Pittsburgh. You can’t take Jimmy G’s debut over Big Ben when push comes to shove.

If the Pats lose Week-1, then they face Rex Ryan and his penchant for killing young QBs with exotic looks in Week-2…it could be very likely the Pats start 0-2, and Garoppolo looks bad—and everyone writes him off. It will be a mistake.

If the Tom Brady suspension ban gets lifted, then the Pats cruise easily to another division title starting the season out 3-0+.

 

 — As for Tom Brady (7-13 for 84 yards, 1 TD/2 INT), he looks fine. He’s working with a hodge-podge of receivers, and it all looks discombobulated, but it’s just preseason work. One of Brady’s INTs was a leaping catch by Aaron Dobson (2 rec. for 51 yards on 5 targets), and then the ball was literally taken out of his hands by the defender as they fell to the ground. Brady’s second pick was un-Brady-like to Dobson–which means the soon-to-be cut Dobson likely screwed up the route (it looked like that sort of thing).

Brady and Garoppolo are not working with Edelman, Gronk, LaFell, etc. this preseason. You can’t get too bent out of shape with some of their bumps pre-regular-season.

 

 — Working with Reggie Wayne (0 rec., 1 target) isn’t any help anyone either—based on watching his one target Wayne looks 37 years-old going on 100. He is moving very slow out of his cuts (like last season), and thus is easily covered—and he looks a lot thinner. It seems there is no Disney-story here.

 

 — Jonathan Stewart (7 carries for 12 yards) is starting to worry me. I mean, he looks fine running the ball—despite the fact there have been about zero-holes open for him this entire preseason…it’s just the preseason, no cause for alarm, on established RBs in a preseason usually.

What I don’t PPR-like is seeing no real, purposeful action in the passing game for Stewart. I worry JStew is going to be ‘the man’ from the 20-to-20 on 1st and 2nd-down, and then Mike Tolbert comes in near the goal line and also on 3rd-downs…making Stewart just like dozens of other RBs who will make us all howl all season “I am dying at RB2 this year!

There are about 4-6 RBs that really ‘matter’ in Fantasy, the kind of guys you can set a watch by (until they sprain their ankle and kill you mid-game, and are questionable for weeks after that)…after these titans of industry RBs–everything else among Fantasy RBs is total, ever-changing chaos. There are 24 RBs starting in most FF-leagues (30+ with ‘flex’)…24 minus 6 = 18 headaches at one or both of your RB slots. Everything is great one week, and hell on earth the next.

EMBRACE the chaos at RB in Fantasy Football 2015—it’s coming. It’s the ‘new norm’.

If Andrew Luck was gone for the year, right this second, Matt Hasselbeck (his backup) is going undrafted in upcoming 15-round redrafts.

If Jimmy Graham was gone for the year, right this second, Luke Willson (his backup) is going undrafted in upcoming 15-round redrafts.

If Antonio Brown was gone for the year, right this second, Markus Wheaton (the team’s #2 WR) would bump from 90-100+ ADP to 50-60 range, I suspect. Some would like Wheaton, others Martavis Bryant, others Sammie Coates.

If Adrian Peterson was gone for the year, right this second, Jerick McKinnon (his backup) would jump from ADP 140+ to a top 25-35 overall pick upcoming redrafts. In-season, McKinnon might out produce AP…you can’t say that about the three scenarios above this example.

RB chaos is the Fantasy way of life. You manage it the best way possible. Jonathan Stewart is likely one of those RBs you’ll be telling me ‘is killing you’ by Week-4 (or by half-time Week-1). By Week-6, there will have been five different RBs picked up/dropped on your roster. Your preseason redraft strategy is only one part of this game we play—the biggest factor in winning a Fantasy title…smart/lucky waivers on and off at RB and DST in-season.

Most Fantasy division winners last season had three players in common: Andrew Luck, Odell Beckham Jr. (didn’t play for weeks, was pulled off waivers in many redrafts, and C.J. Anderson (4th-string RB no one wanted until they ‘had to’). Do your best in the redraft…do better tinkering in-season.

Jonathan Stewart is a talented RB…who is often hurt, plus will be sharing with Mike Tolbert when he is healthy, and getting rushing TDs stolen from him by Cam as well as Tolbert—at some point you will think JStew is the scourge of the earth. It’s not him. It’s the ‘new NFL’.

 

 — Greg Olsen (6 rec. for 51 yards on 9 targets) seems like the smart, deductive reasoning play on Carolina after the Kelvin Benjamin injury. However, Olsen has scored 6 TDs or less every season he’s been in Carolina/with Cam Newton, and Olsen’s catch and yardage totals were his Carolina-bests last season—with Benjamin drawing heat.

This week game’s stat line is going to drive Olsen past Travis Kelce for more people just getting ready to redraft. It makes sense, except the Olsen-Cam-Carolina history says it doesn’t matter that much.

**See the 2015 NFL Draft and 2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft, like never before with our Moneyball-style scouting reports and rankings. Go to www.collegefootballmetrics.com**

 

 — The ‘Benjamin bump’ likely to come is not so much for Greg Olsen, but with Ted Ginn (3 rec. for 30 yards on 6 targets). Ginn had a career year, and some huge games with Cam in 2013, which he parlayed into decent contract to go on to be ignored on the Arizona Cardinals in 2014—and now he’s back. I know from watching this in 2013, and the 2015 preseason—Cam loves Ginn. You will be able to consider/use Ginn as a WR3-type this year when bye-weeks hit. There may even be a mad dash after him off waivers after/if he has a home run ball Week-1.

Of all the WRs you could see starting/playing heavy for Carolina—the one Cam has the most positive history/time with is Ted Ginn Jr.

 

 — I’m so impressed with the last two games of Carolina rookie LB IDP Shaq Thompson (2 tackles). The guy is just ‘a player’. He’s instinctive, and always near the action. He’s starting for the Panthers. He’s also bulking up to look more like a Linebacker, than the LB/Safety/RB he was in college. He’s going to produce as an IDP for a long time.

 

**Our ever-evolving, ever-updating to opening-day, Moneyball scouted, 2015 Fantasy Football e-Draft Guide and Cheat Sheets are available now. Direct link: Draft Guide 2015 options**

 

 

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2015 Preseason Week-3 Dynasty-Fantasy Recap: JAC-DET (8/28/15)

Twitter @FFMetrics

tags — Fantasy Football, Allen Hurns, Blake Bortles, PPR, Joique Bell, ADP, Nordly Cap Capi, IDP, T.J. Yeldon, dynasty rookie draft, Ameer Abdullah, Zach Zenner, handcuff, Theo Riddick

 

To me, this game will be known as the tale of two RBs—and what pisses me off about the NFL hierarchy of things…

 — Zach Zenner (8 carries for 85 yards and 1 TD, 0 rec. on 2 targets) stole the show working with the 1st and 2nd-teams, and running ‘like a boss’. He is a throwback power runner who is deceiving because he runs like an old-school fullback—low to the ground, thick, two-hands/arms over the ball, and just breaking tackles everywhere. That’s not what makes him special, and I mentioned this in our pre-NFL Draft scouting report on him: Zenner has an unbelievable knack for finding the open running space in traffic. It’s unteachable.

Any thoughts about Zenner only being able to do this kind of work on a D2 college level are ‘out the window’…he’s doing to the NFL every week…the same way he did it to D2 schools in his path…and what he did to Nebraska last year—he just makes plays, makes yards.

For everyone who says, “Better than you think athlete,” that’s selling him short too. He registered a 41” vertical at the NFL Combine. He’s legit NFL material.

Like I said last week, Zenner’s already better than Joique Bell (DNP)–just no one will admit it out loud. It will look silly if Zenner comes in as a UDFA and out-plays/bumps Joique after the team foolishly extended his contract going into last season.

Should you ditch Bell for Zenner for Fantasy right now? I don’t know how you can do it. The Lions will not push Zenner because ‘young, inexperienced’, but they will push Ameer Abdullah (3 carries for 8 yards, 1 rec. for 21 yards on 2 targets) because ‘draft status’. Had the Lions fully committed to Zenner earlier, he’d be further along in the offense. At some point, Zenner will take Bell’s job—could be mid-2015, could be 2016. Not impossible that it happens opening day.

Even if Zenner starts opening day, in PPR…what’s there to FF-get? Abdullah’s splitting the workload with him–and getting most of the targets with Theo Riddick. Zenner will get 10 carries and a target per game early on. I love Zenner’s style, but there are a ton of crocodiles in the way of him becoming a Fantasy god right now. He might be more NFL-exciting than FF-exciting.

If I know the NFL—Joique Bell’s walking back in as a starter the moment he can go; no questions asked.

Zenner’s not taken seriously by his own team all summer, but he should have been–and now they act surprised. How did they not suspect this possibility? How could they not push him more with the 1st-team. Beat writers (who are there are every practice and ‘know’ everything) have been saying he’ll get cut until he made them ‘eat it’ the last two weeks. Zenner gets no ‘push’, and yet this next guy I’ll write about gets the starting job on a silver platter, and he couldn’t hold Zenner’s jock as an NFL prospect…

 

 — In this game, in his debut, T.J. Yeldon (8 carries for 10 yards and 1 TD, 1 rec. for 12 yards on 1 target) looked exactly like what a mediocre talent who was pushed by a physical dominant college O-Line looks like in an NFL debut—tentative and easily handled.

In February 2015, I was howling about Yeldon’s tentative/finesse ways at Alabama. In his NFL debut, right on cue: stuffed near the goal line four times in the first two series of this game. Late in the 2nd-drive, he jumped up for a goal-line plunge, got obliterated, fumbled, but got a total charity call for a TD—various replays showed he got stuffed, but who cares—it’s the preseason.

So the story is now “Yeldon scores TD in his debut,” instead of “Yeldon stuffed four-times within the five-yard line, and fumbled—is he another Alabama RB flop?

Wait, what did you say?

You don’t believe that I saw this vision of Yeldon months ago, just because NO ONE else feels this way about Yeldon?

Here’s a partial clip from my February 2015 scouting report on Yeldon, and my oh my…look who R.C. just happens to be comparing and contrasting Yeldon to many moons ago…Zach Zenner. How fortuitous this week…

 

Why do we do this? Why do we treat Alabama players as if they are so special? I mean, I get it—you made it to Alabama to play football…you are a special human walking planet earth. I wish I was talented enough to play for the Crimson Tide…or any team with any shade of the color red…or any shade of any color for that matter. Playing, and succeeding, in the SEC means you are a terrific football player, but can we please, as a draft analyst society, stop automatically racing every Alabama prospect to the higher end of the rankings each year? Some Alabama players deserve high praise, but more often than not it’s a mediocre Crimson Tide prospects getting an extra push in the rankings.

Draft analysts jack up Alabama players at every position every year. They used to do it with USC players when the Trojans were hot years ago, now they do it with Alabama…and have done so for the past five years. They over rank them for the NFL Draft, and NFL teams follow suit and often get scorched more times than not. Alabama has fine players, but 3rd-rounders get treated as 1st-rounders, and 6th-7th-rounders get bumped to 3rd-4th-round status. It’s seemingly a two-round ‘hall pass’ for Alabama prospects.

Enter T.J. Yeldon.

Yeldon is 220+ pounds and runs a 4.6+ 40-time with mediocre-to-poor agility measurements. There’s a bunch of RB prospects hitting with that similar dossier. However, Yeldon went to Alabama…so he gets marched ahead of most all of them. ESPN has Yeldon ranked ahead of David Johnson (who is 100x the athlete that Yeldon is), and someone at the worldwide leader should be fired over that. Yeldon shouldn’t be ahead of Johnson, or Mike Davis, or Zach Zenner for that matter. It’s nonsense.

Don’t get me wrong, Yeldon has an NFL-body with NFL-athleticism…he belongs in the NFL, but more as a 5th+ round RB selection, not a 2nd or 3rd-rounder. We shouldn’t be arguing what team is the best fit for Yeldon, the curiosity should be whether he should be drafted or fall towards undrafted status.

What’s so exciting here? His size? He has it, but so do many others. His feet? He has average speed running straight ahead, with measured weaker in agility making cuts. He’s an average RB prospect with some nice size, and he is being pushed way too high on draft boards.

His athleticism makes me yawn, but what I’m really not a fan of is his running style. He’s a sizeable 226-pounds, but he doesn’t use his size as a weapon. He plays more of a finesse game. His highlight tape is filled with him running straight ahead through wide-open holes behind an all-star O-Line…and most of the time running very upright, and crumbling on contact. Yeldon is not a bruiser. He is more generic—a ‘straight ahead until there is no more straight ahead’ style of runner. He’s not lower his shoulder and moving people out of the way as his first reaction to congestion. I’m completely unimpressed by him…from the perspective that he is supposed to be this top-flight RB prospect. Give me Zach Zenner as the 220+ pound runner from this draft class with so-so speed, but huge output and high-energy/effort with his on-field play.

I don’t mean to slam Yeldon so hard. I’m more ticked by his ‘Alabama-hype push’. Yeldon is a very average RB prospect, but he is NFL-worthy. He could be a solid part of a RB-duo, where Yeldon is the ‘thunder’ part of a thunder-lightning team. However, Yeldon is not as aggressive a runner as the aforementioned Mike Davis or Zach Zenner. He also had fumble-questions from his 2013 season—five fumbles, and four lost. He has more questions than answers as a high-end NFL RB prospect.

NFL teams will not be as excited when they personally meet with him either. He isn’t a ‘bad’ guy. He’s just very quiet and unemotional…a wallflower in interviews. Nothing about Yeldon screams ‘passion’ or ‘fire in the belly’. He acts subdued off the field, and he runs with limited aggression…not the ‘beast’ you might hope for.

An NFL team is getting a physical big runner with mediocre athleticism and decent hands, and a runner who shows risk of flopping in the NFL—he is easily tackled for his size, and he doesn’t inflict punishment as a runner, plus he has had fumble issues. Some team is going to overpay for this.

 

It’s not even ‘Moneyball’ or ‘analytics’ anymore…it’s just a straight gift from God. Give an ‘Amen’ to the man upstairs, I’m just a humble prophet…

 

 — Don’t even get me started on Blake Bortles (20-29 for 110 yards, 1 TD/0 INT)…

OK, because it’s contractually an obligation between you and me, I must say it—man, is Blake Bortles an awful, awful QB. Jacksonville ownership!!!…I could turn this whole ship around in less than 24 months if you let me. It can be our secret!

Bortles is such an affront to my scouting sensibilities it gets me aggravated. I’m not talking about it anymore, here, now…but later, again, sure.

 

– Jags rookie WR Rashard Greene (3 rec. for 25 yards on 3 targets) is probably going to open up as the #3 WR with Allen Hurns (4 rec. for 42 yards and 1 TD on 4 targets) as the #2—with Marqise Lee still wounded. I’m not a Bortles or Hurns fan, but the two of them have a little ‘something’. Hurns could be ‘flex-able’ WR option for FF this season on and off…as long as Lee is out.

 

 — Jags DE IDP Nordly ‘Cap’ Capi (1 tackles, 1 QB Hit) thumped Dan Orlovsky about a split second after/on his release in the 4th-quarter, and Orlovsky got up wobbly. On several plays, Capi was shedding blockers and nosing in/chasing after plays. If the Jags try to put him on the practice squad—the team that steals him could be a hint that they have someone who reads FFM…actually, probably they subscribe to CFM.

 

**Our ever-evolving, ever-updating to opening-day, Moneyball scouted, 2015 Fantasy Football e-Draft Guide and Cheat Sheets are available now. Direct link: Draft Guide 2015 options**

 

 

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It is a huge help for us if you click through the banner or link below before you shop on Amazon. Your shopping experience is the same, and prices do not change—we just get credit from Amazon on your normal activity. Feel free to click, and then save the webpage as a favorite on your computer so we’re with you forever!! OR copy and paste, and email to people who are Amazon shoppers in your circle—and don’t compete with you in Fantasy Football!! Thank you!

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2015 Fantasy Football Draft Guide Update SAT 8/29/15 (7:15pm ET)

tags — 2015 Fantasy Football Draft guide, dynasty rookie draft, ADP, PPR, rankings, sleepers

 

Players added since last update:  Fred Williams (KC)

Players with commentary ‘updates’ from breaking news:  Player Valuation report updated 8/29 + ADPs all updated from last few days of redraft data 

Projection changes based on latest news and info (noted with ‘+’ or ‘–‘ on the Draft Guide):  Brandon Bolden, Bryce Brown, Jamaal Charles, Toby Gerhart, Ted Ginn, Fred Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Marcus Mariota, Denard Robinson, Alex Smith, C.J. Spiller, Delanie Walker, T.J. Yeldon

 

Current Draft Guide Player Count (projected, and with commentary): 606 players 

*100+ Offensive Rookies projected with commentary

 

TO GET THE LATEST DRAFT GUIDE DATA: REFRESH or RELOAD (right click, and select the refresh or reload…or hit F5/update option) your open web page with Draft Guide or Cheat Sheet showing.

*Worst case: close out of your open web page, and re-click original draft guide link to be auto-connected with the latest. Date on bottom of any page should show: 8/29/15.

 

Any Draft Guide Technical Issues: Email us at customersupport@fantasyfootballmetrics.com

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*The Overall top-24 PPR and non-PPR player rankings/valuations (and a few thousand words of commentary) for the FF-Draft are loaded on a new report for 2015.

Either re-click your original link, or refresh that home page/menu options page–the new report will be the first option above the different ways you can view the draft guide reports.*

 

**Our ever-evolving, ever-updating to opening-day, Moneyball scouted, 2015 Fantasy Football e-Draft Guide and Cheat Sheets are available now. Direct link: Draft Guide 2015 options **

 

2015 Preseason Week-3 Dynasty-Fantasy Recap: TEN-KC (8/28/15)

Twitter @FFMetrics

tags — Fantasy Football, Jeremy Maclin, Jamaal Charles, PPR, Kendall Wright, ADP, Delanie Walker, IDP, Ramik Wilson, dynasty rookie draft, Chris Conley, Albert Wilson, Charcandrick West, handcuff, Knile Davis

 

Three bold-ish, ‘diet bold’ statements (for me), coming from my game study and notes here:

1 = I would not be surprised at all if Jeremy Maclin (7 rec. for 65 yards and 1 TD on 8 targets) leads the league in receptions in 2015. There is an Alex Smith-Maclin ‘thing’ happening this preseason. The first two passes in this game were to Maclin. The very first Chiefs play of the preseason was a bomb to Maclin (incomplete). Maclin caught seven passes in less than a half of play.

If Maclin were back in Philly right now, with a QB who has completed three passes in live NFL action in the past 22 months, then he would be a top-10 Fantasy WR, with about a 30 +/- ADP. BUT because the football world snubs Alex Smith, despite the fact he’s far superior to Bradford, they punish Maclin for not being in the mystical Chip Kelly offense that will somehow make 5-8 offensive players top-100 ADP worthy/critical for Fantasy this season…despite all 2013 and 2014 evidence to the contrary. It’s a major mistake on downgrading Maclin on a move to KC—as we have been pointing out in our 2015 Fantasy draft rankings from the jump.

Hopefully, you drafted already and got Maclin at even more of a bargain–because the price is rising. He’s gone from a #60-65 ADP to now getting #50 and creeping into the 40s in PPR. If you missed him, he’s still somewhat of a bargain to trade for—chase him without reservations. He’s a proven, talented, #1 WR working with a top 15-20 NFL QB.

How highly should Maclin be ranked or rated for 2015? Check out our Fantasy Football Draft Guide rankings—they aren’t reactive to this game. He’s been ranked highly all preseason for us.

 

2 = Marcus Mariota (7-11 for 99 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 3 rec. for 22 yards) might just ‘make it’ after all.

I am absolutely convinced our pre-NFL Draft scouting is going to be close to reality on Mariota: He’ll have problems adjusting to the pro-style passing game, but he is gifted with some natural QB instincts–as long as you keep the passing game ‘shorter’. He’ll never be an NFL star, but you can win a division and maybe a playoff game or two with him. Not sure that any of us will look back and go, “Wow. He was one of the greats all along.”

Marcus Mariota’s NFL/FF career upside was staring at him from across the field—he’s the next Alex Smith, at best. How exciting is that for FF-purposes? In 2-3 years, when Rookie Derangement Syndrome wears off, you won’t really care about Mariota. The good news for Titans fans—I don’t think he’ll flameout in the NFL. I wasn’t 100% sure, but I see it—he won’t. On the other hand, Jameis Winston—absolutely a NFL flameout to come.

What drew more of my FF-attention on Mariota in this game—that guy is a very smooth runner. He hadn’t really taken off all preseason, but did a few times in this game—he looks like he is gliding, but he’s moving very quickly.

The other thing that drew my attention: His awful throws middle-deep. What I like is—Mariota doesn’t throw blindly into traffic. He’s one of the best, if not the best, at standing brave in the pocket and reading the field among any 2015 rookie QB. He is not rattled. However, when he reads and throws down field (especially towards the sidelines), his arm floats the ball–he misses throws other guys can make because the process is too slow. He doesn’t drive his body on a lot of his passes—he’s a touch passer, too much so. That’s going to take time to improve/hone, and may never fully be ‘in him’ to be a great downfield passer.

Mariota has pieces that I see that I love this preseason, but I also see the issues. He’s going to wind up somewhere between Ryan Tannehill and Alex Smith—so very steady, so very solid, and you’ll not FF-care about them in 2-3 years. Terrific ‘C+’ players who give you a nice ‘B+’ game/run every once in a while. A life filled with 7-9, 8-8, 9-7 seasons ahead. Good enough to be ‘the franchise’, but not good enough to be a Super Bowl kind of QB–unless all the other pieces around him are magic.

 

3 = FINALLY, we got to see Chris Conley (3 rec. for 30 yards on 6 targets) with the ball in his hands, and more targets overall—and it was very encouraging. I’m closer to feeling that our computer models and pre-NFL Draft scouting on his upside are possible. Not fully there in my gut, by I took a step in the right direction after watching him here briefly.

You must read our scouting report on Conley at College Football Metrics.com. My biggest fear for him was the limited touches in college might be a ‘Conley issue’ to some degree. In this game, Conley got involved quickly.

Conley jumped in with the 1st-team when Albert Wilson (1 rec. for 16 yards on 1 target) hurt his shoulder on his first catch. As KC drove downfield soon after, Alex Smith saw one-on-one coverage on Conley, and sent him deep, and threw a timing bomb 30+ yards in the air…Conley was held early, and a P.I. was called…so no highlight outcome, but this ‘nothing play’ spoke some volumes to me…

Conley has elite speed, and the defender felt he needed to grab him quickly into the sprint…this is FF-good news! I want to see the speed on the field/in reality. Smith saw the favorable Conley matchup, and didn’t think twice…that is good! Smith knows Conley has like the best vertical in the NFL.

I didn’t see ‘THEE or A moment’ with Conley in this game, but I saw chess pieces moving in the right direction. I feel a little better on him today. I’m hopeful, but realistically nervous.

**See the 2015 NFL Draft and 2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft, like never before with our Moneyball-style scouting reports and rankings. Go to www.collegefootballmetrics.com**

 

 — 4th-year St. Could State/Chiefs WR Fred Williams (5 rec. for 62 yards and 2 TDs on 5 targets) stole the show after Maclin left the game. A very impressive outing by Williams—one that likely pushes fringe WRs like Frankie Hammond and Junior Hemingway, etc. off the roster…maybe.

More on Williams as we add him to the draft guide today.

 

 — It’s as if Delanie Walker (0 rec., 2 targets) doesn’t exist with Marcus Mariota so far in the preseason. In the sea of not-Gronk/Graham lesser-TEs to choose from in a redraft, I’d bypass Delaine. It could just be the preseason, but I see zero chemistry between them.

The chemistry for Mariota is with Kendall Wright (3 rec. for 60 yards on 3 targets).

 

 — Chiefs rookie LB IDP Ramik Wilson (4 tackles, 4 solo) is rumored to be an opening-day starter candidate. He’s an ‘OK’ talent…if he starts it won’t mean an IDP-ton, but it’s something.

 

 — Charcandrick West (9 carries for 47 yards, 2 rec. for 0 yards on 2 targets) out-stat’ed Knile Davis (2 rec. for 17 yards on 3 targets) again, but note Davis went in and out with Jamaal Charles—West worked almost all 2nd-team. In the end, if Jamaal goes down—it would be Knile working with West to some degree. It’s not a Knile slam dunk anymore. Davis could seize it, but so far he hasn’t shown that in much of the last two seasons. West is fully moving higher in Andy Reid’s heart.

 

**Our ever-evolving, ever-updating to opening-day, Moneyball scouted, 2015 Fantasy Football e-Draft Guide and Cheat Sheets are available now. Direct link: Draft Guide 2015 options**

 

 

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