Fantasy Football Metrics

Dynasty-Fantasy Football Commentary On The Latest Football News (5/27/15)

Twitter @FFMetrics

 

Post-draft, there is always a little lull in football happenings. So when a roto-site or NFL news aggregator picks a random story and shapes it within a 2-4 sentence slanted blurb–it can become a sudden story of epic Fantasy proportion…because we’re all starved for football snacks in May-June. I will comb the latest news and give my quick (or not so quick) take on them daily during the week–over the next few weeks.

In addition, some/most days the ever popular ‘things that aggravate me’ will be below the daily football takes. We need a sponsor for ‘things that aggravate me’, as it is a popular feature, and very cathartic for me…and we want to help business in America, mainly ours…which is also in America, so if interested–contact us. 

 

The news that caught my eye on 5/27/15:

 

 — I’m not sure what Colin Kaepernick is doing, but from a distance it looks like he is trying to sabotage his career with his mouth and his thumbs. The only time you hear from Kaepernick, it seems, is him apologizing and/or taking heat for something stupid he said or tweeted.

On the field, he had that terrific splash onto the scene midway through 2012—leading the 49ers to the Super Bowl…and a near-miss world title. The NFL started to figure him out in the following season, and his numbers declined quickly…throwing for about a TD a game, throwing for less than 200 yards in most contests, and completing under 60% of his passes after Week-1 in 2013.

In 2014, his team regressed another notch. Kaepernick had another mediocre season. The head coach was fired.

If the 49ers regress again in 2015, with a whacky coach at the helm—this 49ers season could look more like a Saturday Night Live skit. Kaepernick has not shown grace under fire…so if/when the bullets start flying as the Niners drop to the bottom of the NFC West—it could get ugly. If Kaepernick is given an open mic or open Twitter account, under a 2015 season of duress, he will probably burn the final parts of the rickety bridge between he and the Niners’ fans and teammates.

I wouldn’t be shocked to see Kaepernick traded mid-season or in the 2016 offseason (he was in discussions for trade pre-draft). His loose, team-friendly contract makes him very portable, even easily release-able.

You’d think all this CK negativity from me means that I end this piece by proclaiming him a waste for Dynasty-Fantasy? You are wrong. As much as I have never been a fan, and was involved in a holy war of scouting with him a few years ago–there is one thing to consider with CK that could completely ignite his FF-value to ‘elite’ status. A long shot…

Sit on that prior sentence/statement for a second. This is something that only pertains to Kaepernick, and Kaepernick alone…a chance to jack his FF-value to one of the top in all Fantasy/Dynasty. 

How many QBs are there who have the following…

(a) The talent to be a decent starter, but possibly could be traded due to certain circumstances converging (declining play, ties to the head coach who was run out of town, and CK acting as an awful ‘face’ of the franchise).

AND…

(b) Could wind up in a new place that changes everything because of their unique skillset?

You probably guessed it…what if Colin Kaepernick does wind up with Chip Kelly? He almost did pre-draft. Sam Bradford is a free agent to be, and is always one quick move away from another injury. CK is the better Marcus Mariota as far as talent. Better arm, experienced, better runner, etc. He would become a top Fantasy QB if he were working with Chip Kelly. Working with the 49ers, right now, no one really cares for Fantasy/Dynasty. If traded to Jacksonville, no one really cares…but with Chip Kelly—he becomes one of the top QBs in Fantasy, in theory…better than the Sam Bradford bump, or Mark Sanchez, etc.

Jay Cutler to Philly wouldn’t create the same stir, nor Johnny Manziel…but Kaepernick—that would take him from kinda irrelevant to top-3 QB for Fantasy, on paper. The arm, the foot speed…I don’t think there is any other QB that could realistically move to Philly and get the same supersonic Fantasy Football/Dynasty value bump.

Keep this in mind in your Dynasty offseason maneuvers. CK works in a new offense this year, and might do something to become a nice QB2/fringe QB1. However, if turmoil hits the 49ers again, in a few months to a year…perhaps CK explodes in value as the new Eagles QB. His Dynasty acquisition price versus potential payback over the next 365 days is intriguing. The downside is about where we are at today—no one is really confidently counting on him for FF-2015 anyway…not much lower he can go.

Food for thought.

**Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics IDP Dynasty (three-year) projections now exist on the Fantasy Football Management technology: “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here (link): The Machine via FFM

 

===================

 

Here’s what is aggravating me today, sponsored by (your company here)…

Why is it that we use whether a politician knows the price of a gallon of milk or not as a litmus test on how ‘fit for duty’ they are to be President of the United States?

It’s such a simple mindless purchase it makes no sense using it to gage anyone’s financial aptitude.

If you want to buy a new or used car, you have about 7,000 different options of which to consider. Between the make, model, year, color, engine, miles, etc., it is a daunting task to wade through.

If you want to buy a new TV, you walk into a Best Buy and stare up at 100 different choices while a friendly associate saunters up next to you to find out how they can help you make your purchase.

What’s the big thought process with purchasing a gallon of milk?

What does it even matter what the price of milk is? It’s not like you walk into the grocery store stare at the refrigerated section contemplating all the vast milk choices you have to select from? A friendly associate does not come up and ask if they can help you make your lactose decision. You don’t go from grocery store to grocery store kicking the tires, or the jugs, until you get comfortable with the decision. You don’t quick check Amazon to see if you can get a better deal that way. You only have one major decision in your milk shopping event–what color cap was it that I was supposed to purchase…the red, the blue, or the light blue, or whatever that other option is which is basically not milk, it’s white water.

I never walk away from a grocery store with a need for milk, look at the price, and walk away in hopes of finding a better deal later. I just grab the color cap I’m supposed to get, and go on my way. I have no particular preference for the certain type of cows that made the product. Milk could be two dollars a gallon or three dollars a gallon or five dollars a gallon…I have no idea. When I need milk, I’m just going to go get some…or send my teenager to go pick it up, because isn’t that why I had kids in the first place?

The second I can have an assistant do my personal milk acquisition bidding. I’ll happily outsource it to them. So what do I care if Mitt Romney or Hillary Clinton don’t know the current cost of a gallon of milk, or even go to the grocery store on the own? I wish I didn’t have to go to the grocery store ever again. We should look up to the people who achieved a status in life that they don’t have to go to the grocery store on their own—instead we damn them.

I want my President solving issues, not pouring over the Sunday coupon section to see if there’s a great milk-cereal coupon combo that can be played this week. Hey, it’s double coupon week at the local whatever! I think I’ll skip out on that national security briefing to go see if I can save $2.32 by gaming the supermarket system.

My local grocery story price for milk is roughly $2.66 on my last visit…this does not mean I’m now qualified to be President.

**See the 2015 NFL Draft and 2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft, like never before with our Moneyball-style scouting reports and rankings. Go to www.collegefootballmetrics.com **

 

 

R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst and writer for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. He is also a lead writer for ‘Play The Draft.com’. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here: The Machine via FFM      Email:  rc@fantasyfootballmetrics.com

 **If you enjoy the free content on Fantasy Football Metrics.com please consider making your next Amazon purchase through our website/link partnership with Amazon. You’re going to buy something at Amazon anyway, there is no extra charge — help give us a little love! Feel free to save/bookmark this link in your favorites and you will have it for all future Amazon purchases. Thanks for your consideration! Link — Amazon.com: Online Shopping for Electronics, Apparel, Computers, Books, DVDs & more **

 

Dynasty-Fantasy Football Commentary On The Latest Football News (5/26/15)

Twitter @FFMetrics

 

Post-draft, there is always a little lull in football happenings. So when a roto-site or NFL news aggregator picks a random story and shapes it within a 2-4 sentence slanted blurb–it can become a  sudden story of epic Fantasy proportion…because we’re all starved for football snacks in May-June. I will comb the latest news and give my quick (or not so quick) take on them daily during the week–over the next few weeks.

In addition, some/most days the ever popular ‘things that aggravate me’ will be below the daily football takes. We need a sponsor for ‘things that aggravate me’, as it is a popular feature, and very cathartic for me…and we want to help business in America, mainly ours…which is also in America, so if interested–contact us. 

 

The news that caught my eye on 5/26/15:

 

 — On a scale of 0-10, Jerick McKinnon has a Fantasy value of about a ‘5’ right now with Adrian Peterson clouding any potential. The mediocre valuation has nothing to do with McKinnon’s talent, which we had rated best in class with Bishop Sankey last NFL Draft season, obviously McKinnon is a talent.

Actually, on second-thought, the ‘5’ valuation for McKinnon has somewhat to do with his talent. Most backups to AP would be ‘dead money’, but because McKinnon flashed skills last season—there is hope, and thus people are willing to hold onto his lottery ticket.

Remove Peterson from the picture, and McKinnon is going to a FF-valuation around ‘8’. McKinnon is inherently more talented than Matt Asiata, et al.

Pre-draft, it looked like a Peterson trade was likely. Post-draft, it appeared AP would be the Vikings 2015 opening-day starter. This past weekend, I am more convinced that Peterson wants to take his talents to South Beach, or wherever is not-Minnesota. I think Peterson is about to make a spectacle to force the Vikings’ hand.

If I were running the Vikings, staring down a $12.8M contract for a RB…I absolutely deal him away, if I can find a team silly enough to pay a RB $12M+ for a season…especially a 30+ years-old one who is a ‘covered up’ mess off the field (the details of things going on with AP aside from the child endangerment stuff, if true, are frightening). The Oakland Raiders are still in the NFL, so it’s very possible he could be moved. I’m not sure the Vikings really want to have Peterson in the organization…they really don’t need to deal with this. Peterson over eight seasons, one of the best RBs in the NFL, has yielded one playoff win in four appearances.

It’s a game of chicken with the other NFL teams. Jerry Jones is smart enough not to pay $12M+ a year for a RB. Most teams aren’t…so they might just be waiting out the Vikings. If Minnesota is backed into a corner, they can cut AP for a smaller $2M hit…and then Peterson is a free agent. If acquiring AP was seen as critical, some team would have paid the price by now. The price is dropping, and the Vikings have to decide when to take the best offer on the table…they may be waiting for that first, shocking RB ACL of training camp to hit another team in order to drive the price back up.

All that to say, do not sell Jerick McKinnon short in Dynasty. If Peterson survives 2015 with Minnesota, he’s likely gone in 2016 when his contract escalates to $15M, and the Vikings can release him with no financial hit. McKinnon becomes ‘the man’ for Minnesota in a week, a month, or a year. Have patience for one of the better RB prospects in all the NFL. Start hedging that Peterson will be on the move at some point, and sooner rather than later.

 

 — Speaking of RBs from the 2014 NFL Draft class…

Over the long weekend, I saw Roto-blurbs on three RBs from last year’s class. The general commentary was as follows (paraphrasing):

*Some beat reporter says Charles Sims is not as talented as the Bucs are making him out to be.

*Storm Johnson is playing for a roster spot.

*James White is the favorite to take over Shane Vereen’s role.

It wasn’t the so much the headlines as the inner-detail that followed. In every case, the writer smarked on each RB. Sims was noted for how bad he was last season despite the hype. Storm was noted as a flop when given a chance. White was quipped as one who better step up his game from his awful preseason in 2014.

Really?

No conscious or memory…just jokes?

Charles Sims, Storm Johnson, and James White were rookie RBs jammed down your throat this time last year by Fantasy and football analysts alike. They were all ‘super talented’ and going to overtake Doug Martin, stupid Toby Gerhart, and silly Shane Vereen. Now, just one year later a 2-4 sentence update is written with 1-2 ‘rim shot’ jabs taken at Sims-Storm-White.

Really?

Mr. Writer(s) of each piece—I guarantee you signed right up for these myths in 2014…and even pushed them like a used car salesman. You likely wrote elegant diatribes why these three guys were the future of their respective teams, when in reality two or all three of them will be out of the league in 2-3 years. How could you have been so off in 2014? How could you not jab yourself today for getting suckered by players like this for the nine millionth time?

No jabs at ‘self’ by the writers…just jabs at the players for being failures. I love how NFL scouting and revisionist history works.

If only there were a scouting source that told you that Sims, White, and Storm all were giant hoaxes before the NFL Draft. If only…

Maybe someday the scouting Messiah will arrive. Keep on the lookout! I’ll let you know if I see him or her.

 

===================

 

Here’s what is aggravating me today, sponsored by (your company here)…

I didn’t get too caught up in the David Letterman retirement thing last week. It actually started to aggravate me after a while. Every media thing I opened had some Letterman angle. CNBC kept discussing it. Mike & Mike would discuss it in my car. Yada-yada.

I didn’t get all the fuss.

To me, it seems like there are three types of people in the world. (1) Under 30-35 years old, who have no real affinity or ties to David Letterman. (2) 60+ year old individuals who had a real working life in the 80s, and didn’t stay up to 12:30am to watch his show. (3) People like me, middle-aged now, who grew up on Letterman back when he broke the mold for television. Staying up to watch Letterman in the 80s was a must for a young person. We watched it in groups. We VCR’d it.

It was cutting edge when I was a teen/young adult, but I haven’t watched the show in 20+ years.

I have to admit. The day after the Letterman finale, I did pop on to YouTube to watch the final moments and final top-10 list, etc. I was not moved by any of the final moments, per se. Didn’t really find them uproarious. However, I did start to recall the days of my youth soon after, and thought back to what was so great about those days. I was going to try to explain it to my teenage boys, but it wouldn’t make any sense. It was right place, right time back then…and not for today’s youth.

As I scanned YouTube, came across old Letterman clips, and there it was…

If I were to explain what I loved most about Late Night back in the day, it was one man—Chris Elliott. Letterman’s monologues were different and cutting edge (at the time). His skits and things were unorthodox and wonderful. His ‘normal’ guests were the least important part of the show. What me and my friends were all really gathering up to watch…hoping Chris Elliott would make an appearance.

So this weekend, I watched several Chris Elliott appearances on Letterman on YouTube…and laughed my ass off. 15+ years later, just as funny to me today as then. If I tried to show my teens some clips of Elliott as “The guy under the seats” or as “Morton Downey Jr.” there would be crickets chirping. However, as I was watching Elliott as all his characters, especially “Marlon Brando” and “Marv Albert”…I was in tears.

It got me thinking, and aggravated: Why did Chris Elliott not get any bigger in ‘the biz’ than he did? He was a superstar on Letterman, and then had a failed low-budget movie, but had a quirky TV show “Get a Life” that was ahead of its time (for that time) and thus got cancelled because it was so unusual (and no cable station with the vision to pick it up back then…that wasn’t a thing yet)…and after all that, I’m not sure where he went. I’d see him pop up from time to time in bit roles on things, but nothing huge. I’m sure he made a nice living writing for shows, etc.

I would say Elliott was my generation’s Will Ferrell…but it happened in an era where the three networks dominated, and stodgy media didn’t know what to make of David Letterman and his style. Now, everyone with a $20 web cam has a Letterman-like, Elliott-like, Ferrell-like comedy effort going out to the world. I maintain if Elliott hit in this generation, he would have become like Will Ferrell—he was just ahead of his comedy time.

Any wildly pro-Elliott people from back in the day out there that are with me!? Feel free to email me…so I know there is at least one human who shares my aggravation: Why didn’t Chris Elliott become a bigger comedy icon? He will never get his full due.

Here’s a clip of Elliott’s original Marlon Brando appearance on Letterman. Only 0.2% of FFM readers will enjoy this. You’d have to understand how much of an acting icon Brando was then, but how nuts he was off camera and appearing on different talk shows. Elliott is bottling all the Brando-isms into this character…in a time where it wasn’t as normal to really mock an icon like that. There are so many subtle nuisances in his dialogue and physical movements in this skit—to me, pure genius every time he did this character. The Brando character ran for several shows. A few of them are on You Tube. Geezers like me, start your short work week with a nice smile as we remember back in the days of our youth when staying up to 12:30am to watch a show was not even a question/decision…it was planned around.

This will also make you wonder: How did we survive without HD back then?

In tribute to Chris Elliott–a lost legend from my youth that ended with Late Night wrapping for the final time…

 

 

 

Recent Dynasty Rookie Draft ADPs (Top-40)

Twitter @FFMetrics

 

Based on our latest tracking of two sources:

(1) Dynasty Rookie Drafts taking place over the past week, and ones that do not involve FFM-CFM clients to the best of our knowledge…we can tell by the picks ;)

(2) Recent Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings from popular sources/analysts…the ones that sway the masses.

We are publishing this info to help you plan your Dynasty Rookie Draft strategy or ‘trade the pick away’ strategy. We plan to publish these lists with some commentary, and expand it to a top-50. We will also have an IDP version forthcoming.

Here are the current top-40 ADPs we are tracking for the Dynasty Rookie Draft 2015 with commentary on a few of the players we found interesting or ‘on the move’.

*Change from ADP, is the change from the same tracking in the prior week. On the change in ADP spots: The (-) means moving up/good, and (+) is moving down the boards/bad.

 

 

1) Todd Gurley, St. Louis (1.3 ADP, change -0.1 ADP spots) – Is the 1.01 pick 64% of the time.

2) Amari Cooper, Oakland (2.0 ADP, change +0.1 ADP spots) – Is the 1.01 pick 32% of the time.

3) Kevin White, Chicago (3.3 ADP, change -0.2 ADP spots) – Is the 1.01 pick 1% of the time.

4) Melvin Gordon, San Diego (4.0 ADP, change +0.2 ADP spots) — Is the 1.01 pick 3% of the time. Gordon is starting to lose a tiny bit of top-3 momentum this past week.

**Gurley, Cooper, White, Gordon are almost always within the first five picks**

5) DeVante Parker, Miami (4.9 ADP, change -0.6 ADP spots)

6) Nelson Agholor, Philadelphia (6.9 ADP, change -0.4 ADP spots) – An occasional top-5 surprise.

7) Dorial Green-Beckham, Tennessee (7.8 ADP, change +0.1 ADP spots)

8) T.J. Yeldon, Jacksonville (8.8 ADP, change -0.2 ADP spots) – Starting to pick up some top-5 momentum.

9) Breshad Perriman, Baltimore (9.0 ADP, change -0.8 ADP spots) – Biggest upward move among the top-10.

10) Tevin Coleman, Atlanta (9.6 ADP, change +1.2 ADP spots) – Biggest decliner among the top-10

**Our annual Fantasy Football Draft Guide, a guide like any other, will be available in June. 600+ players projected with commentary, updated near-daily right up to opening-day**

 

11) Ameer Abdullah, New Orleans (10.6 ADP, change -0.6 ADP spots)

12) Duke Johnson, Cleveland (13.9 ADP, change -1.6 ADP spots)

13) Jaelen Strong, Houston (14.4 ADP, change +1.0 ADP spots)

14) Maxx Williams, Baltimore (15.3 ADP, change -0.3 ADP spots)

15) Phillip Dorsett, Indianapolis (16.3 ADP, change -1.6 ADP spots) – Training camp blurb last week that ‘he looks good’ is pushing him up the draft boards.

16) Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay (17.2 ADP, change +2.5 ADP spots) – Starting to fade back, closer to Mariota.

17) Devin Funchess, Carolina (17.9 ADP, change -1.7 ADP spots) – A training camp headline on Funchess ‘looking good’ has him on the move upward as well.

18) Jay Ajayi, Miami (18.9 ADP, change -1.8 ADP spots) – People want to love him more than this. Starting to push as high as within the top-10, while others stay away. A ton of draft spot variation here.

19) Marcus Mariota, Tennessee (19.1ADP, change +1.4 ADP spots)

20) David Johnson, Arizona (20.0 ADP, change +2.3 ADP spots) – Roto-headlines keep dismissing him as a backup to Ellington. I cannot thank the mainstream enough.

**See the 2015 NFL Draft and 2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft, like never before with our Moneyball-style scouting reports and rankings. Go to www.collegefootballmetrics.com **

 

21) Devin Smith, NY Jets (20.6 ADP, change -1.5 ADP spots)

22) David Cobb, Tennessee (21.1 ADP, change +1.8 ADP spots)

23) Tyler Lockett, Seattle (23.0 ADP, change +3.1 ADP spots) – Big fade this week.  

24) Sammie Coates, Pittsburgh (23.4 ADP, change -0.8 ADP spots)

25) Chris Conley, Kansas City (24.4 ADP, change 0.0 ADP spots)

26) Javorius Allen, Baltimore (25.3 ADP, change -0.2 ADP spots)

27) Justin Hardy, Atlanta (29.8 ADP, change -1.0 ADP spots)

28) DeAndre Smelter, San Francisco (30.5 ADP, change -4.6 ADP spots) – Picked up a bunch of heat this week. Not sure why, he has been discussed more as a PUP candidate than an impact starter.

29) Mike Davis, San Francisco (30.7 ADP, change +1.6 ADP spots)

30) Josh Robinson, Indianapolis (32.4 ADP, change -0.5 ADP spots)

**Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics IDP Dynasty (three-year) projections now exist on the Fantasy Football Management technology: “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here (link): The Machine via FFM

 

31) Jeremy Langford, Chicago (33.0, change -4.6 ADP spots)

32) Cameron Artis-Payne, Carolina (34.7 ADP, change +3.3 ADP spots) – Only oft-injured JStew stands ahead of him in people’s minds.

33) Kenny Bell, Tampa Bay (35.3 ADP, change -3.1 ADP spots)

34) Tre McBride, Tennessee (36.3 ADP, change -2.1 ADP spots)

35) Matt Jones, Washington (37.3, change -2.5 ADP spots) – Really heating up with the headlines the last few days. He may be within the top-30 ADPs next week.

36) Clive Walford, Oakland (38.2 ADP, change +5.9 ADP spots)

37) Darren Waller, Baltimore (38.6, change +2.0 ADP spots)

38) Karlos Williams, Buffalo (40.8 ADP, change +5.1 ADP spots)

39) Ty Montgomery, Green Bay (43.1 ADP, change +2.8 ADP spots)

40) Rashad Greene, Jacksonville (43.5 ADP, change +2.1 ADP spots) – You have to be ‘high’ to make this pick. All the WRs on the roster, and arguably the worst starting QB in the NFL…this equals FF-gold?

 

 

R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst and writer for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. He is also a lead writer for ‘Play The Draft.com’. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here: The Machine via FFM

 **If you enjoy the free content on Fantasy Football Metrics.com please consider making your next Amazon purchase through our website/link partnership with Amazon. You’re going to buy something at Amazon anyway, there is no extra charge — help give us a little love! Feel free to save/bookmark this link in your favorites and you will have it for all future Amazon purchases. Thanks for your consideration! Link — Amazon.com: Online Shopping for Electronics, Apparel, Computers, Books, DVDs & more **

 

 

Why do you like Matt Stafford, and hate Jay Cutler?

 

Ready for a slight “freak out”?

 

From 2012-2014 (last three seasons):

1.47 TD/1.00 INT per game = Matt Stafford

1.60 TD/1.07 INT per game = Jay Cutler

 

59.6% Comp. Pct., 82.8 QB rating = Matt Stafford

62.9% Comp. Pct., 85.1 QB rating = Jay Cutler

 

22-26 record, 45.8% winning percentage = Matt Stafford

20-21 record, 48.7% winning percentage = Jay Cutler

 

0 playoff wins (2012-14), 0-2 playoff career record = Matt Stafford

0 playoff wins (2012-14), 1-1 playoff career record = Jay Cutler

 

 

R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst and writer for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. He is also a lead writer for ‘Play The Draft.com’. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here: The Machine via FFM

 **If you enjoy the free content on Fantasy Football Metrics.com please consider making your next Amazon purchase through our website/link partnership with Amazon. You’re going to buy something at Amazon anyway, there is no extra charge — help give us a little love! Feel free to save/bookmark this link in your favorites and you will have it for all future Amazon purchases. Thanks for your consideration! Link — Amazon.com: Online Shopping for Electronics, Apparel, Computers, Books, DVDs & more **

 

Dynasty-Fantasy Football Commentary On The Latest Football News (5/22/15)

Twitter @FFMetrics

 

Post-draft, there is always a little lull in football happenings. So when a roto-site or NFL news aggregator picks a random story and shapes it within a 2-4 sentence slanted blurb–it can become a  sudden story of epic Fantasy proportion…because we’re all starved for football snacks in May-June. I will comb the latest news and give my quick (or not so quick) take on them daily during the week–over the next few weeks.

In addition, some/most days the ever popular ‘things that aggravate me’ will be below the daily football takes. We need a sponsor for ‘things that aggravate me’, as it is a popular feature, and very cathartic for me…and we want to help business in America, mainly ours…which is also in America, so if interested–contact us. 

 

The news that caught my eye on 5/22/15:

 

 — I am working on the first 2016 College Football Metrics scouting report of the year: Cardale Jones, Ohio State QB. That report will be on CFM late 5/22, or early 5/23.

We are starting to weave our 2016 scouting reports into the existing 2015 NFL Draft prospect reports, reports on the theoretical top guys for 2016—using the information that we have available, knowing it is incomplete for our scouting models. Each year, we do a few preview scouting report on a few prospects a year ahead of their NFL Draft. We’ve been pretty solid calling the QB prospects a year ahead of time—i.e. with guys like Matt Barkley, Teddy Bridgewater, Johnny Manziel, etc. We haven’t missed the mark much at all with our early reports on QBs. We’ll see how our Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston ‘year ahead’ reports hold up. For the 2016 class, we are starting with Cardale Jones.

On top of producing the Jones report, which is about 1,500+ words on my rough draft, we are going to do something new with these early glimpse reports. We are going to include them in the 2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings as well. Many have asked about our take on a top guy a year ahead, for Dynasty planning on trying acquire or trade away top picks. To help project the talent and to place the value on some of these 2016 guys, we will include them in every Dynasty Rookie Rankings update…version 3.0 is being worked on as you read this, and it expected to include Cardale Jones.

One thing I wanted to note about my Cardale Jones scouting process, because it really hit me hard yesterday…

I had watched the Oregon-Ohio State scouting tape of the NCAA Title Game from a just Mariota perspective back in January–watching/studying it a few times. I also quickly went through it once from the Jones side, but then halted any further researching when he didn’t declare. This week I watched that title game again, but this time instead of only focusing on Jones for the scouting report, I just let the tape roll through—I watched the Mariota perspective again, at the same as I watched Jones.

Our take on Jones? You’ll have to read it when it publishes. No spoiler alerts.

What really caught my attention…Marcus Mariota is not ‘ready for this’. That Ohio State game was jarring how simplistic an offense and how laboring a thrower from the pocket Mariota is…and also just how it looks in general when he lines up against a real, big defense—Mariota looks kinda small and scrawny…and unimpressive. I think there is some ‘hope’ down the line to be debated about with Mariota, and he may wind up like Alex Smith (at best)—lost in despair for years, and then pops back up to become a plausible NFL QB. As for an instant impact in the NFL…that Ohio State game gave me the heebee jeebees (whatever those are; I got ‘em).

Whatever happens with Mariota in the NFL, all I know this that my recent re-watch of the title game was more cage-rattling than the first couple of times I watched it. I briefly touch on why I was shaken by Mariota in that game, in the Cardale Jones report coming soon on CFM.

**See the 2015 NFL Draft AND THE 2016 NFL DRAFT…and 2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft, like never before with our Moneyball-style scouting reports and rankings. Go to www.collegefootballmetrics.com **

 

 

 — Calling all college football fans with an eye for talent…

Each year, I do a few 2016 reports based upon obvious national interest/popularity/name-recognition. I don’t follow college football in-season. I only watch college football (a ton of games) after the season, and mostly just looking/studying the draft eligible players. I really don’t know who the other top guys might be out there…I just know ‘in the media names’. I know the scouts are always wrong with their early assessments, as I wrote about this week. So I turn to you, because you know better anyway…

If you are so inclined, email me the player(s) who will be draft-eligible for 2016, that you think I should do I report on…or would like to see a report on. Please don’t give me a head’s up on your cousin who is a Left Guard, who has no shot in the NFL. Please send me some legit names and a sentence or two or ten on why he should be an early look. Right now, I know we are looking at Cardale Jones, Joey Bosa, and there is a sudden Shawn Oakman, Baylor push of questions in my email.

Tell me who you think we should consider early scouting reports on, and you might see them popping up on CFM this summer: rcf@collegefootballmetrics.com

Thank you!

**Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics IDP Dynasty (three-year) projections now exist on the Fantasy Football Management technology: “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here (link): The Machine via FFM

 

 

===================

 

Here’s what is aggravating me today, sponsored by (your company here)…

I feared I would have nothing aggravating to write about today…which was aggravating. But leave it to today’s theme to bail me out.

I haven’t, purposefully, looked at who everyone in the football media is saying is the top 2016 NFL Draft prospect. So, I thought I’d look today to see where Cardale Jones is early ranked at, and see who others show at the top rankings.

Really?!?

Does everyone have to be so predictable?

Honestly, everyone independently did research and all came up with Michigan State QB Connor Cook as the #1 prospect going into 2016? Wow, how statistically improbable that everyone would reach this conclusion on their own. Great scouting. It’s such an exact science like that, isn’t it? Isn’t life wonderful when it is so predictable?

Our CFM computers graded out Cook in January because he was thought to be jumping in the draft pool. I can tell you this—“no way.” I guess, I’m going to have to do a report on Kirk Cousins 2.0…don’t email his name in. I got it already…

Have a great Memorial Day weekend!!!

 

 

R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst and writer for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. He is also a lead writer for ‘Play The Draft.com’. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here: The Machine via FFM

 **If you enjoy the free content on Fantasy Football Metrics.com please consider making your next Amazon purchase through our website/link partnership with Amazon. You’re going to buy something at Amazon anyway, there is no extra charge — help give us a little love! Feel free to save/bookmark this link in your favorites and you will have it for all future Amazon purchases. Thanks for your consideration! Link — Amazon.com: Online Shopping for Electronics, Apparel, Computers, Books, DVDs & more **

 

Dynasty-Fantasy Football Commentary On The Latest Football News (5/21/15)

Twitter @FFMetrics

 

Post-draft, there is always a little lull in football happenings. So when a roto-site or NFL news aggregator picks a random story and shapes it within a 2-4 sentence slanted blurb–it can become a  sudden story of epic Fantasy proportion…because we’re all starved for football snacks in May-June. I will comb the latest news and give my quick (or not so quick) take on them daily during the week–over the next few weeks.

In addition, some/most days the ever popular ‘things that aggravate me’ will be below the daily football takes. We need a sponsor for ‘things that aggravate me’, as it is a popular feature, and very cathartic for me…and we want to help business in America, mainly ours…which is also in America, so if interested–contact us. 

 

The news that caught my eye on 5/21/15:

 

 — Everything you thought you knew about handicapping football games just changed with the passage of the rule that PATs now move to the 15-yard line. There is no precedent for these types of rules…on how scoring and strategy will now be affected. All the lovely (making this up example) “The Packers are 14-6 against the spread when facing the Bears the last 10 seasons” tidbits are meaningless—they were all played under different rules than what lies ahead.

The PAT move also has a Fantasy impact—making the game more random on these two FF-point ‘tacks-ons’ coming for your offensive players.

The initial commentary I read about the move had a basic ‘shoulder shrug’ that Kickers are 95% successful on FGs from the new PAT range, so don’t expect Head Coaches to take too many chances. I think that’s a right and wrong analysis. I have to chuckle as well, because it is an inadvertent, delicious, biting commentary to me…the commentator’s notion is basically a veiled swipe that coaches are uptight, risk-avoiders (enter Family Feud correct answer ‘ding’ here).

It’s true—most NFL coaches are risk-avoiders and predictable at all costs. A great example of their warped mindset is how they deal with turnover avoidance. They bench starting RBs who fumbles a ball mid-game, and lambastes them in the press later…but they almost never punish a starting WR or TE for a fumble within a game. And when is the last time you saw a QB get benched for throwing an INT…or two…or three? Jay Cutler can throw four of the worst INTs you’ve ever seen in a game and have several other near-miss ones…and he’ll be back on the field next series. If Matt Forte had lost a fumble on two consecutive offensive series—RB controversy. Forte takes a breather, and maybe re-enters later. Coaches abhor turnovers in their mind, almost playing the game not to have them pop-up at any time…but then are cockeyed in how they deal with the players who produce them.

If a RB fumbles, and recovers the ball back…all is well. No real sweat.

If a RB fumbles, and loses it to the other team…he’s possibly going to the bench, and never re-entering the game.

The NFL is just smarter than you or I. Please continue to bow down to their genius.

Where was I?

Oh, Head Coaches are super uptight and risk-avoiders. Yes.

However…

…not all of them are ‘sticks in the mud’.

This is the perfect front for coaches like Chip Kelly to just ‘go for two’ nearly every time. Bill Belichick is likely to push this theory as well. The other stoic, by the book, old-school coaches will have to react. What do you do when you’re down 8-0 early…or down 28-20 mid-4th-quarter, and about to score a TD? All types of coaches, radicals or old-school, will get used to going for two—either from watching others do it to them or being forced into trying them by circumstance. In short order, everyone will get over their initial fears…and the Kicker-based PAT will fade away.

Teams with great QBs have the upper hand—guys who are successful in tight windows under pressure. The rich just got richer with this change. Tim Tebow now has a whole new career—as the most lethal 2PAT weapon in all the NFL…maybe? 49ers TE, former college QB, Blake Bell now matters a little more—and I semi-predicted that in our Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings weeks ago.

Bad NFL teams should see this as a similar opportunity that small-school NCAA basketball teams received when the three-point line got moved in. If I’m Jacksonville, I go for two points every time…maybe we hit a few early and change the flow of the ‘norm’. What do we have to lose…because we’re probably going to lose big anyway? They should embrace getting radical right away.

…but they probably won’t, initially.

Now I have to take all day changing Fantasy scoring models for 2015. I love my job!!

**Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics IDP Dynasty (three-year) projections now exist on the Fantasy Football Management technology: “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here (link): The Machine via FFM

 

 

 — Did you see the note that Bears 2nd-year RB Ka’Deem Carey is potentially going to be cut before the season—and now ‘the pressure is on’ for him to step up.

I never forget…

Those of you who drink/guzzle from the fountain of football scouting that believes, “They (football coaches and scouts) know what they are doing. They see these guys up close.” I offer you Ka’Deem Carey. He had a terrific college career, and was raced to the top of the 2014 NFL Draft RB rankings by nearly one and all.

He’s about to be cut after one season.

The NFL Combine/measurables matter.

‘They’ (coaches and scouts and GMs) do not have a magic crystal ball. ‘They’ are so close to it…that ’they’ can’t see it in most cases. They are as flawed as any other business leaders.

I’m not just picking one scouting ‘miss’ and being a jerk. I could display another name like this every day. These top rated-players have several college seasons to scout, and yet scouts miss wildly on rating them when they produce a January pre-draft ranking. They are normally off by miles on the top prospects after watching the play for 1-4 years. They have the worst scouting eyes of all.  

Anyone remember analyst’s and scout’s #1 overall draft prospect in January 2013? It was Matt Barkley. He was also in a recent article being discussed as a possible release this year—and the writer was flippant about how terrible Barkley is and what a dumb pick, yada-yada. I’ll bet that same person signed onto Barkley as the #1 overall prospect after the bowl games were finished in his 2013 draft year, but is now acting like Peter post-Jesus arrest and conviction. It’s unconscionable.

This is the football scouting system many hold dear. Enjoy.

**See the 2015 NFL Draft and 2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft, like never before with our Moneyball-style scouting reports and rankings. Go to www.collegefootballmetrics.com **

 

==============================

 

Here’s what is aggravating me today, sponsored by (your company here)…

Stupid fresh-baked chocolate-chip cookies. I swear.

I haven’t had, nor wanted, nor craved a chocolate-chip cookie for months. I think I got one with a KFC $5 meal, because I got that kinda cash, a few months ago. Obviously, it wasn’t a major event in my life. Chocolate-chip cookies are fine. You can’t go wrong. They aren’t in my top-5 cookies, but they are a solid member of the cookie team…like a nice WR3/Flex. Not my main starter, but very dependable when I need them. *Oatmeal raisin (without all the other twists and turns of nuts or cranberries worked in), and a really good sugar cookie are my #1a-1b ranked, if you’re wondering what to get me ‘just because’.  

So, a tip of the cap to the chocolate-chip cookie. You’re a fine cookie. However, if I never had one again, I would care less.

My son has a post-season ‘get together’/banquet for his track team tonight, so my wife made homemade chocolate-chip cookies late last night to bring to the festivities today. I walk into the kitchen just as the first batch hit…fresh out of the oven…and BAM! I’m suddenly compelled to eat nine of them in a matter of a few minutes.

I wasn’t even hungry. I likely would not have eaten again altogether for the rest of the night.

It’s not even my favorite cookie.

I am trying to cut some weight, so I should have purposefully walked away after maybe just one.

Instead of moving on with my life, I went into a bizarre cookie rage—destroying 75% of a dozen cookies in mere moments.

Why does this happen EVERY TIME?

Oreo cookies are another pedestrian cookie. I never grab them for a snack. I never throw them into the grocery cart ‘just because’. However, when they magically appear at my house, I have a minimum one entire row of consumption in one (quick) sitting. Why? What is so compelling about these cookies in my face? Kinds I am not even compelled to desire anywhere else, but put them within arm’s reach under my roof and then this happens…

Skip to 4:05 of the video, or just enjoy from the beginning. (link) Chocolate Rage…

 

 

R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst and writer for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. He is also a lead writer for ‘Play The Draft.com’. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here: The Machine via FFM

 **If you enjoy the free content on Fantasy Football Metrics.com please consider making your next Amazon purchase through our website/link partnership with Amazon. You’re going to buy something at Amazon anyway, there is no extra charge — help give us a little love! Feel free to save/bookmark this link in your favorites and you will have it for all future Amazon purchases. Thanks for your consideration! Link — Amazon.com: Online Shopping for Electronics, Apparel, Computers, Books, DVDs & more **

 

Jeremy Hill’s 2015 Fantasy Outlook Comes Down To Three Plays from 2014…

Twitter @FFMetrics

 

Jeremy Hill is currently going off as a top 8-13 RB in early redrafts, a top 18-24 pick overall…and I’m NOT on board with this sentiment.

I realize Hill had a nice rookie splash last year. He shoved Gio Bernard out of the way (who was your anointed Bengals’ RB ‘hero’ prior), and clocked a few 140+ yard rushing games…and now has been deemed a ‘next big thing’. That’s how it works. I get it. It makes sense. His 2014 efforts/totals made me worry that our computer scouting models were way off on him as well.

I would like to throw out some fuzzy math concepts and twisted realities to create some doubt on Jeremy Hill going forward…just for grins.

Here are the three pillars of my discontent with Jeremy Hill overall, (and your brain may frazzle with point #2):

 

1) Athleticism/measurables…

This anti-Hill argument has to begin with a re-visit of his 2014 pre-draft workouts. On paper, Jeremy Hill is not that good.

He registered a 4.66 40-time at the NFL Combine (no three-cone there). He later posted a 4.58 40-time at his Pro Day with a terrible 7.64 on the three-cone. His vertical leap was a porous 29” at the NFL Combine, and 30” at the Pro Day. Those are athleticism numbers that should barely get a RB prospect drafted. It screams of a limited athlete at RB.

He has NFL size (6’0”+/233), so you can forgive him a little on his speed times, but the profile of Hill is one of a straight-ahead, power runner with no breakaway speed and poor east-west ability. He does not profile as a future, all-around NFL star RB–just future useful part of a backfield.

I know. Some of you are saying that measurables and analytics are for dirty nerds, and don’t belong in football talent evaluations…and/or sometimes the measurables are misleading. I can dig it. Just know, his athleticism is an issue—and it is why I am have been a skeptic on ‘Hill as a star’—because my computer says a ‘breakout star’ is not possible here.

**Our annual Fantasy Football Draft Guide will be available in June–600+ players projected with commentary, updated near-daily right up to opening-day**

 

 

2) Long Run Aberrations…

Jeremy Hill had three 60+ yard runs in his final nine games to end the 2014 season—a nice game stretch where he became ‘the man’. You have to give Hill credit—that’s fine work; three 60+ yard runs are impressive. Jamaal Charles had only one run over 60 yards last year. LeSean McCoy, Demarco Murray, Matt Forte and Arian Foster all had none in 2014. Yet, the much slower Hill had three 60+ yard runs—three-times the amount of McCoy + Foster + Forte + Murray + Charles combined.

Either Jeremy Hill is the future greatest RB we’ve all have ever seen…or this is just an odd, spike in events that will be hard to repeat.

Looking back at those long runs by Hill (two of them for TDs), they were fine, but he was almost caught in the backfield on two of them…and the missed tackles-for-loss appeared like they might have thrown the other defenders, who looked like they slowed up for a moment–then Hill punched through an open hole and was gone (also great blocking by the Bengals). On his other long run, he had a wide-open hole and just blasted through it and kept going to pay dirt. These are all good things, but they are also statistically bizarre…not normal. AND definitely not normal for a measured slower runner.

It was Week 8 where Jeremy Hill really ‘arrived’ in 2014. He had 154 yards rushing…against lowly Jacksonville (60 of them on a long TD run late in the game). From Weeks 8-16, Hill played a major role as mostly the lead RB for nine games. He tallied 929 rushing yards (103.2 per game) with 6 rushing TDs (0.67 per game). A full 16-game season at that pace would have pushed 1,600 rushing yards and about 11 TDs. It’s definitely a reason to get excited on his future Fantasy prospects.

His yards per carry total in those nine games–an impressive 5.40.

What if we removed those three long running plays from his attention-getting nine-week stretch to end 2014 (an 85-yard TD vs. DEN, 62-yard run vs. NO, 60-yard TD vs. Jacksonville)? He would be reduced to: 722 yards rushing (80.2 per game), 4 TDs (0.44 per game)…and a drop to a more reasonable 4.27 yards per carry. Still, not bad output overall.

When you take away his three huge running plays, his overall statistical profile then starts to fall in line with a high carry-count, mildly productive banger of a RB…a normal/decent 230+ pound RB—and not the next Jim Brown.

If you feel it is unfair to penalize Hill by taking these terrific plays away, I understand. I would merely state that on 169 of Hill’s carries in 2014, he was a very normal/solid producer for his size-speed-agility scouting profile, but on those other three specific carries–he did things the best RBs from 2014 couldn’t match—three 60+ yard runs. Fantasy GMs have to decide if 2014 was just scratching the surface of constant ‘big play’ Jeremy Hill…or are those radical long runs in a smaller sample of nine games throwing the averages way off and distorting our reality?

Jeremy Hill finished 8th in rushing yards in 2014. The other nine RBs among the top-10 rushers for 2014 had a combined total of three 60+ yard runs during the season in 2,486 combined carries…one 60+ yard run for every 828.7 carries for the group.

Hill had three 60+ yard runs on 222 carries…one every 74.0 carries.

Is Hill the ultra-talented aberration…or did the aberration happen to Hill?

You know where my vote lies…

**See the 2015 NFL Draft and 2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft, like never before with our Moneyball-style scouting reports and rankings. Go to www.collegefootballmetrics.com **

 

 

3) Takeaway the easier stuff…

Hill’s three best rushing efforts came against three lowly run defenses in 2014…real low—the Jags, Saints, and Browns. Three of the worst run defenses from a yards per game, yards per carry, rushing TDs allowed, and rushing 1st-downs allowed perspective.

If you remove his games against the Saints, Jags, and Browns (2x), and re-look at his Week 8-16 run, Hill posted 420 yards rushing (85.0 per game) and two TDs (0.40 per game) in the other five games….and an impressive 5.0 yards per carry.

One of those five games above featured his 85-yard TD run against Denver. Take that one play away, if the Broncos DL who had him in the backfield doesn’t let go, then it’s a total of 335 yards rushing (67.0 per game) and one TD (0.20 per game) in these five games for Hill…and a lowly 3.99 yards per carry. Hill essentially had 83 normal/quiet/underwhelming carries in that cluster of five games…and one explosive carry that threw all the averages loco.

Are there more explosions to come in 2015? Can Hill keep up the pace of his 2014 output?

In the first six weeks of 2015, Hill will face OAK-SD-BAL-KC-SEA-BUF.

Baltimore and Seattle were two of the best defenses against the run in 2014.

Buffalo was just outside the top-10 best run defenses in most categories, but now has run-stuffer Rex Ryan as head coach. Oakland was one of the top-10 in lowest yards per carry allowed last season. The Chiefs allowed the least amount of rushing TDs in 2014: 4.

This schedule start is not good for any RB.

Only more Jeremy Hill jailbreaks for 60+ yards at a clip will be able to save him.

What if the weight of the early 2015 schedule sits on Hill, like it did on Eddie Lacy last season (FYI: no rushing plays over 60+ yards last season for Lacy either), and he disappoints out of the gates? Fantasy GMs will panic. If you own him…you will panic.

Why invite this panic in?

In a redraft, I avoid Hill at the current +/- 20.0 ADP.

In a Dynasty league, I trade him high now…and if you really like him, look to reacquire at half-price when the panic selling hits the market.

…or I’m wrong, and Jeremy Hill is the best RB in the NFL…and the joke’s on me.

 

 

R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst and writer for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. He is also a lead writer for ‘Play The Draft.com’. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here: The Machine via FFM

 **If you enjoy the free content on Fantasy Football Metrics.com please consider making your next Amazon purchase through our website/link partnership with Amazon. You’re going to buy something at Amazon anyway, there is no extra charge — help give us a little love! Feel free to save/bookmark this link in your favorites and you will have it for all future Amazon purchases. Thanks for your consideration! Link — Amazon.com: Online Shopping for Electronics, Apparel, Computers, Books, DVDs & more **

 

Dynasty-Fantasy Football Commentary On The Latest Football News (5/19/15)

Twitter @FFMetrics

 

Post-draft, there is always a little lull in football happenings. So when a roto-site or NFL news aggregator picks a random story and shapes it within a 2-4 sentence slanted blurb–it can become a  sudden story of epic Fantasy proportion…because we’re all starved for football snacks in May-June. I will comb the latest news and give my quick (or not so quick) take on them daily during the week–over the next few weeks.

In addition, some/most days the ever popular ‘things that aggravate me’ will be below the daily football takes. We need a sponsor for ‘things that aggravate me’, as it is a popular feature, and very cathartic for me…and we want to help business in America, mainly ours…which is also in America, so if interested–contact us. 

 

The news that caught my eye on 5/19/15:

 

 — Ryan Tannehill got a decent contract extension yesterday. The news reminded me of something I probably last mentioned with Josh Freeman.

Ryan Tannehill is one of the worst things that could happen to an NFL franchise. Much like a Jay Cutler, or a Matt Cassel–they are all examples of QBs who are not disasters…however, they are not ‘championship leading’, franchise QBs either. The team’s ownership and management are ‘stuck’ with these QBs. Of course, they are happily stuck—because they think they’ve found ‘their guy’…because said QB is not a total train wreck. The organization is deceived by the very real fear of having observed a parade of awful QBs prior—they don’t want to go back there, so they ‘settle’.

Even if they knew Tannehill was just ‘average’…what could the team do about it anyway?

You cannot trade Tannehill for fear of retribution from the media and fans—because what is ‘Plan B’? It’s hard enough to find a plausible QB, and much easier to land on a bust. NFL history shows there is no successful, scientific plan for taking QBs. Tannehill is at least not an embarrassment.

Miami (and many other teams like them) become so entrenched with a so-so QB, they won’t even draft a young, hopeful QB in the 2nd or 3rd or 4th-round of an NFL Draft. How embarrassing it would be for the backup to outplay the starter you just gave a ton of money to? When you are worried about not putting any pressure on your starting QB, you keep Matt Moore around as a backup. You sign Josh Freeman (which they just did). No QB controversy even possible here with this group!! It’s embarrassing in a league that admits ‘QB is everything’, and how much they love ‘open competition’ for playing time, that your 3rd QB roster spot is occupied by Josh Freeman—it is unconscionable.

Miami fans…you’re stuck. A flurry of 6-7-8-9 win seasons have been locked in for the next 3-5 years. At least, Jacksonville fans have the hope that next year they will likely sweep the entire nightmare coaching staff away. With a clean slate, low expectations, and a high draft pick…there’s always ‘hope’ in a lucky draft pick QB. No such hope exists in Miami, for a while. Mediocrity has been secured longer-term.

Against playoff teams last year, Miami posted a 1-5 record, and Tannehill tallied 10 TD/7 INT and 238.3 yards per game through the air. Very solid numbers…ones you could have gotten from Matt Moore as well.

The Dolphins have a gift of a schedule to start 2015…almost as if they are trying to be handed a 5-0 start, but then it turns dark. Acquiring Tannehill for the first few weeks of 2015, just to flip around the Week-5 BYE is not a crazy ‘stock trade’.

WAS-JAC-BUF-NYJ-BYE-TEN the first six weeks for Tannehill…cha-chinggg. Not that’s not the 2015 NFL Draft order at the top…that’s their schedule.

**Our annual Fantasy Football Draft Guide will be available in June–600+ players projected with commentary, updated near-daily right up to opening-day**

 

— Speaking of Jacksonville. I saw a note that the team mentioned they threw too much (playbook, etc.) at Marqise Lee his rookie season. Awesome! I’ll bet they think that is a very management thing to say…and that we’ll all nod and move on.

So you wasted a top draft pick on a WR who can’t learn your playbook? How did all the other 2014 top rookie WRs thrive right away? Why didn’t you draft them instead of Lee?

About this playbook…obviously, it’s awesome. Just look at the on field results…stellar. If a Patriots’ WR is struggling with the playbook, I’ll allow it. Jacksonville…I’m thinking you might want to change said playbook. Whatever is in that book isn’t working.

All this noise is to avoid the real issue: Blake Bortles is going to go down as a horrific draft pick…and is the real cause of issues with Lee and the playbook.

As long as Bortles exists…Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson are dead to me for Fantasy Football…and Julius Thomas…and all nine RBs they have. Wasn’t Storm Johnson a thing some of you out there liked? Yeeesh.

**See the 2015 NFL Draft and 2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft, like never before with our Moneyball-style scouting reports and rankings. Go to www.collegefootballmetrics.com **

 

===========

 

Here’s what is aggravating me today, sponsored by (your company here)…

Another (two days in a row) CNBC moment aggravated me this morning. I can kiss this potential sponsor good-bye after this…

I’d like to think CNBC is a show for grownups…relatively smart grownups. Not Ivy League high concept stuff—just people interested enough to watch a morning TV show covering the latest stock market and general business news…and people interested in such things tend not to be complete morons. I’m a daily viewer, and mostly not a moron.

So the Kellogg CEO is on the show for a few minutes, and is being interviewed. Let me just say this: Thank God, that I do not own stock in Kellogg’s. If that is your company’s leader…fare thee well. Holy good heavens.

They asked the CEO of Kellogg’s about changes he’s making to improve sales and profits for the company, and it would have been the worst presentation/sales pitch of any of the high school seniors from my kid’s high school that I observed making their ‘senior project’ presentations last night. This Kellogg’s CEO had no emotion, and was filled with every business cliché known to mankind…and did nothing to excite anyone on the panel interacting with him. It was almost like a Saturday Night Live skit…except it wasn’t.

I think my favorite part was at one point he was discussing why cereal is such a great product…and in a string of monotone, unenthusiastic clichéd bullet point soundbites, he added (paraphrasing): “Cereal has milk, and milk is good for people.” Yeah, cereal!!

I think he also threw in that…”Cereal wasn’t just for breakfast, and that you could eat it any time.” Hey, thanks for the tip. That never occurred to me in the history of my life. You say cereal can be eaten any time of the day, not just for breakfast? Why let me make plans to partake in this thing you call ‘cereal’, and I will try it not-for-breakfast posthaste! Good day to you kind sir!

I don’t know about Kellogg’s underlying fundamentals as a stock, I’m sure they are fine. However, I would not count on any new ‘electricity’ from the management team, nor any brave new worlds to be developed with the two management guys I saw on CNBC this morning. You will not be able to eat cereal via your Apple Watch any time soon, if that’s what you are wondering.

Bonus points to this CEO, with a mildly British(?) accent, who says the word “cereal” in like a microsecond…and because he says it so fast with some kind of accent it sounds like he is saying “sewer.” I think even a CNBC host quietly guffawed at one point when he might have heard the Kellogg’s CEO express that “…kids would benefit from eating more sewers.”

The door is still open for a General Mills or Post sponsorship, I guess.

 

R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst and writer for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. He is also a lead writer for ‘Play The Draft.com’. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here: The Machine via FFM

 **If you enjoy the free content on Fantasy Football Metrics.com please consider making your next Amazon purchase through our website/link partnership with Amazon. You’re going to buy something at Amazon anyway, there is no extra charge — help give us a little love! Feel free to save/bookmark this link in your favorites and you will have it for all future Amazon purchases. Thanks for your consideration! Link — Amazon.com: Online Shopping for Electronics, Apparel, Computers, Books, DVDs & more **

 

Dynasty-Fantasy Football Commentary On The Latest Football News (5/18/15)

Twitter @FFMetrics

 

Post-draft, there is always a little lull in football happenings. So when a roto-site or NFL news aggregator picks a random story and shapes it within a 2-4 sentence slanted blurb–it can become a  sudden story of epic Fantasy proportion…because we’re all starved for football snacks in May-June. I will comb the latest news and give my quick (or not so quick) take on them daily during the week–over the next few weeks.

In addition, some/most days the ever popular ‘things that aggravate me’ will be below the daily football takes. We need a sponsor for ‘things that aggravate me’, as it is a popular feature, and very cathartic for me…and we want to help business in America, mainly ours…which is also in America, so if interested–contact us. 

 

The news that caught my eye on 5/18/15:

 

 — A news blurb over the weekend mentioned that Colts RB Vick Ballard might be done with the Colts…and with football. Several injuries have limited him to one game appearance the past two seasons.

It made me think back to how many people clamored for Ballard as the savior at RB for the Colts a few years ago, and how people called us (FFM) insane for not jumping on this bandwagon. However, it more made me think yet again about just how fast ‘plagues’ hit Fantasy Football RBs, and throw the whole RB market into disarray…year-to-year…and week-to-week. We see the RB mayhem all the time in Fantasy Football.

Random thoughts about the craziness that is ‘RBs’:

People are so sure C.J. Anderson is the Denver answer for 2015, but this time last year he was virtually undraftable in Fantasy Football…and folks were so sure Montee Ball was the answer at that time.

About this time last year, I thought Bernard Pierce could make a move on the Ravens starting RB role….but then the Ravens drafted one of our higher-rated RBs from the 2014 NFL Draft, Lorenzo Taliaferro. Pierce was quiet on opening day 2014, but then runs like a boss in Week-2…and then is never heard from again the rest of 2014—he now is hanging on for NFL-life in Jacksonville. In the end, Justin Forsett leads the Ravens in rushing in 2014!

Years ago, Justin Forsett was supposed to be the next big thing for Fantasy Football in Seattle, but then some guy named Marshawn Lynch was traded for.

So many people liked Tre Mason’s Fantasy outlook a few weeks ago. The Rams not so much. They like Todd Gurley better now. Probably, even better than they like Isaiah Pead.

LeSean McCoy was a god in 2013, and then he destroyed FF-teams in 2014 as Fantasy GMs were forced to start him every week waiting for the uptick…an uptick that never really came.

Is there any position, like RB, where people are so sure a guy like Vick Ballard is the future, and then two years later the player doesn’t hardly exist?

Top producing young WRs one year aren’t typically out of the league, washed up two years later. Nor do you see it at TE, nor at QB. Sure, there will be an example here and there, but WR-TE-QB typically are who they are…moving from a ‘B’ to an ‘A’ or to a ‘C’ as schedules and surrounding talent ebb and flow. RBs tend to go from ‘B’ to ‘F’ (or vice-versa) in a matter of weeks…or one season to the next.

The ‘Zero RB strategy’ is a term that has popped up in Fantasy articles/circles over the last two years…basically making the case that selecting a RB in the first few rounds of an FF-draft is a bad idea, for all the reasons you would think: RBs are more fragile, more fickle, more interchangeable, etc. I liked this theory better when I was laying out a foundation for the case on it 3-4 years ago…but I digress.

I’m pleased, and scared for the upcoming universal shift away from a RB-centric/dominant theory in Fantasy. I’m pleased that I was ‘right’ years ago, but scared because one of my (and long-time FFM readers) Fantasy advantages is likely going away. This ‘anti-RB at the top’ theory is likely going to become a dominant one—as the masses will follow the top-analyst’s chatter telling us all that it is now ‘OK’—I fully expect Matthew Berry, et al to kick open the door on this anti-RB theory in 2015.

For the past decade+, Fantasy GMs were enslaved to the ‘RB over everything’ draft theory. This year, snubbing top RBs will be in a transition year—it will be hit and miss as some people wait for more people to blaze the trail. In two years, analysts and fans will scoff at taking RBs early in a Fantasy draft…and then it will probably be a savvy, contrarian, value play to take a RB in the 1st-round of a FF-draft.

What is that is being proposed as the alternative theory to stacking RBs early? Loading up on WRs early like you used to do with RBs! That’s…well…not exactly the right way to play either, per se. It is better than being sold-out to a RB-first theory, but we don’t see it as the best economic theory. It’s a miss-fire, in a sense, a knee-jerk reaction to the ‘RB snub’ theory.

What is the right theory…the right mix…the right balance…the proper player/positional valuations?

I see new, radical approach to this Fantasy valuation puzzle in my early projections for Fantasy Football 2015, and it’s different than our own prior valuation theories the last couple of years…which were different than the rest of the world’s anyway. The world is catching on to our devaluation of the RB group in general, and the extreme opportunities to be found working with the undervalued top TEs…and it’s fine because we started realizing a new path was emerging mid-2014.

What is our 2015 theory?

You’ll find out in our annual Fantasy Football Draft Guide (classic tease!), which is expected to ‘drop’ between June 1-15th…but I hope we can hit it very close to the June 1 target!

**See the 2015 NFL Draft and 2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft, like never before with our Moneyball-style scouting reports and rankings. Go to www.collegefootballmetrics.com **

 

====================================

 

Here’s what is aggravating me today, sponsored by (your company here)…

This wasn’t planned for today. It just happened.

Please tell me if you caught this guy on CNBC this morning—the economist who was on breaking down stocks, valuations, etc. But oh, by the way, he has an economic model that shows how higher picks in the NFL Draft are not ‘worth it’, and that NFL teams should trade down in a draft.

Many have theorized about the ‘high NFL Draft picks not worth it’ strategy, but, this guy is an economist and respected…so he gets to go on CNBC to share his NFL Draft findings. He has a fancy graph and everything. I’m sure he’s just beyond brilliant, and probably doubled my ACT and SAT scores. Likely, he went to an impressive college, and makes 10x what I do. So he has the floor.

However, let a lowly educated dummy like me propose the flaw in the theory…and it’s a problem with most analytics garbage that is spewing into the Fantasy/Football atmosphere.

He is only looking at one data-point connection, and has the wrong premise to begin with. Anyone can judge whether a draft pick was ‘good’ or ‘bad’ (but there would even be argument about how to classify them), and then you would see that you could find good/bad ones just as much in the 2nd-round of the NFL Draft as in the 1st-round. It’s too simple a theory. There is much more to be examined. The economist’s data, in and of itself, is probably right…you are as likely to find as good of a talent in the 2nd-round as the 1st-round of the NFL Draft when you look back through the years. We all parrot that draft picks are like coin flips in the NFL, yada-yada. The problem, to me, is the basis for his study is wrong, and thus the action to be taken is off base.

Yes. Higher draft picks are tracking with a coin flip probability. However, this guy presupposes the NFL absolutely knows what they are doing in evaluating talent. I know he thinks this, because he said so 3-4 times during the segment. When the ‘draft game’ is defined as: The NFL knows better, but they are only tracking 50-50 selecting talent…then sure—fade back in the draft. Why pay more for 50-50 coin flips? The economist thinks it’s a brilliant finding, but what he is inadvertently saying is: “You NFL guys are a bunch of F-ups in making draft picks, so fade back and flip cheaper coins…you’re going to botch it anyways.” He doesn’t realize he is saying that, but he is. He thinks he figured out something clever on an economic solution-level for valuation. He really is identifying a simplistic theory that states: If you’re going to fail, do so cheaply. He is excusing the core issue of the failure…because he presupposes drafting is a 50-50 random act.

I don’t.

His draft equation/theory would radically change if he started with the premise that scouting and ‘general managing’ is massively flawed in the NFL. In addition, there exists the wrinkle that you could deliver talent to the Head Coach and staff…and then they don’t know what to do with it. The problem is NOT calculating the economic value of a draft pick today based on outcomes from the past. The problem is NOT that the draft talent is so random that we can only ask, “Who can figure it out a good pick anyway?” The problem is that the draft ‘pickers’ (scouts and GMs) themselves are flawed in finding talent and how to value it, plus the coaches are flawed in their usage of said talent—and the coaches are almost always in a ugly day-to-day battle with the GM. The whole basis for acquiring and using talent is bizarre. No one starts with that stance.

Instead of fading back for cheaper, later draft picks—assuming defeat, and just paying less for it…why not fix the real thing that needs fixed: How to identify and value better and properly run a team as a unified front! If you assume it’s not possible to draft better, then you run fancy charts showing you should fade in a draft…and go on CNBC like you were the first person to land on the moon.

The mathematical talent valuation in scouting and drafting answer is out there…waiting to be discovered. However, the problem is that even if you got close to discovering it–the NFL ownership-management-scouting hierarchy is so discombobulated, and never radically changed, that they’re not going to adopt a radical NFL Draft proposal quickly or easily…or at all.

The studies on the NFL Draft should be around tearing down the NFL team management and scouting structure and reconstructing it—like we should do with our antiquated education system. BUT we/society likes ‘reliable and failing’ better than we do ‘radical change and maybe failing’…so this guy is right—trade back in the draft. Pay less for your dart throws. Do the same flawed thing over and over, hoping to get lucky.

The TV ratings and merchandising sales are through the roof…who can tell the NFL franchises that they have no clothes?

 

 

R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst and writer for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. He is also a lead writer for ‘Play The Draft.com’. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here: The Machine via FFM

 **If you enjoy the free content on Fantasy Football Metrics.com please consider making your next Amazon purchase through our website/link partnership with Amazon. You’re going to buy something at Amazon anyway, there is no extra charge — help give us a little love! Feel free to save/bookmark this link in your favorites and you will have it for all future Amazon purchases. Thanks for your consideration! Link — Amazon.com: Online Shopping for Electronics, Apparel, Computers, Books, DVDs & more **

 

Dynasty Rookie Draft 2015: Current Top-25 Tracked IDP ADPs/OTBs

Twitter @FFMetrics

 

IDP rankings and ADPs for the Dynasty Rookie Draft are very difficult to gauge. There are huge variations in scoring schemes, and how many IDPs are in the starting lineup, etc. We looked at actual multi-starting IDP leagues along with rankings that Fantasy websites are proposing, and are tracking an IDP ADP (or OTB, explained below) from it as best we can.

Here’s what we see happening in non-FFM-related drafts and rankings over the past 7-10 days, if they are of some Dynasty Rookie Draft planning use to you:

*OTB = ‘Off the board’ the average number in which they are taken ahead of all the other ADPs. (Example) Eric Kendricks is almost always the #1 IDP taken, but he is rarely among the top-12 selected when considering the offensive guys. A player with an OTB of 3.9 means the IDP is taken on average as the 3.9th IDP selected in/ranked for a Dynasty Rookie Draft.

  **See the 2015 NFL Draft and 2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft, like never before with our Moneyball-style scouting reports and rankings. Go to www.collegefootballmetrics.com **

 

Our current top-25 tracking of IDP ‘OTBs’…

1) LB Eric Kendricks, Minnesota (1.1 OTB) – The near universal #1 IDP off the board or ranked this past week. In a Dynasty league with several IDPs starting, Kendricks is tracking as the 15-25th off the board in the Dynasty Rookie Draft—with an average of a 20.7 ADP in drafts.

2) LB Stephone Anthony, Indianapolis (3.9 OTB) – This caught me by surprise a little bit. There is much more love for Anthony than I would have suspected. He was not a tackle machine in college, nor possessing off-the-charts athleticism I’m not sure why such a hot push here.

3) LB Vic Beasley, Atlanta (5.0 OTB) – Will occasionally be the 1st IDP taken in leagues with a more sack heavy scoring system…and now that Dante Fowler is out for 2015.

4) LB Shaq Thompson, Carolina (6.4 OTB)

5) LB Paul Dawson, Cincinnati (6.5 OTB) – He is becoming a hot sleeper among ‘the sharks’ in Dynasty-Fantasy Football. High-stakes leagues only: Dawson is tracking more #3 off-the-board.

6) LB Denzel Perryman, Miami (6.8 OTB)

7) LB Benardrick McKinney, Houston (8.0 OTB)

8) DL Leonard Williams, NY Jets (8.4 OTB)

9) DB Landon Collins, NY Giants (9.3 OTB)

10) DL Dante Fowler, Jacksonville (10.9 OTB) – The reality of his injury has yet to fully settle in, as many still think he is Superman in waiting just because Jacksonville did. Why is anyone chasing what Jacksonville is high on? How many third-degree burns do you have from touching that stove?

**Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics IDP Dynasty (three-year) projections now exist on the Fantasy Football Management technology: “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here (link): The Machine via FFM

 

11) DL Randy Gregory, Dallas (11.1 OTB)

12) LB Alvin Dupree, Pittsburgh (11.5 OTB)

13) DL Owamagbe Odighizuwa, NY Giants (14.7 OTB)

14) DL Arik Armstead, San Francisco (17.3 OTB)

15) LB Kwon Alexander, Tampa Bay (20.7 OTB)

16) LB Ben Heeney, Oakland (22.0 OTB) – Just a personal note. Anyone who takes Kwon Alexander ahead of Ben Heeney should be tasered after the pick is announced.

17) LB Shane Ray, Denver (22.1 OTB) – I’m shocked how lowly he is ranked. I figured him going top-10 for sure. Dynasty GMs are much more anti-Ray than the analysts.

18) LB Hau’oli Kikaha, New Orleans (22.2 OTB)

19) LB Jake Ryan, Green Bay (22.4 OTB)

20) DE Preston Smith, Washington (22.7 OTB)

21) LB Jordan Hicks, Philadelphia (23.9 OTB)

22) DL Henry Anderson, Indianapolis (26.5 OTB)

23) DL Danielle Hunter, Minnesota (28.3 OTB)

24) LB Eli Harold, San Francisco (28.3 OTB)

25) LB Ramik Wilson, Kansas City (30.1 OTB)

 

 

R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst and writer for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. He is also a lead writer for ‘Play The Draft.com’. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here: The Machine via FFM

 **If you enjoy the free content on Fantasy Football Metrics.com please consider making your next Amazon purchase through our website/link partnership with Amazon. You’re going to buy something at Amazon anyway, there is no extra charge — help give us a little love! Feel free to save/bookmark this link in your favorites and you will have it for all future Amazon purchases. Thanks for your consideration! Link — Amazon.com: Online Shopping for Electronics, Apparel, Computers, Books, DVDs & more **

 

Fantasy Football Metrics

HOME       CONTACT US