Fantasy Football Metrics

2015 Fantasy Football Draft Guide Update MON 7/6/15 (11:50pm ET)

Twitter @FFMetrics

tags — 2015 Fantasy Football Draft guide, dynasty rookie draft, ADP, PPR, rankings, sleepers

 

*The Overall top-24 PPR and non-PPR player rankings/valuations (and a few thousand words of commentary) for the FF-Draft are loaded on a new report for 2015.

Either re-click your original link, or refresh that home page/menu options page–the new report will be the first option above the different ways you can view the draft guide reports.*

*Overall top-24 commentary updates added 7/5

 

Players added since last update:  Tony Moeaki, Thomas Rawls, Glenn Winston

**See the 2015 NFL Draft and 2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft, like never before with our Moneyball-style scouting reports and rankings. Go to www.collegefootballmetrics.com **

 

Players with commentary ‘updates’ from breaking news: none

Projection changes based on latest news and info (noted with ‘+’ or ‘–‘ on the Draft Guide):  Teddy Bridgewater, Jamaal Charles, Andre Holmes, Charles Johnson, Cody Latimer, Marshawn Lynch, Tre McBride, Adrian Peterson

Current Draft Guide Player Count (projected, and with commentary): 483 players (on our way to 600+ players projected with scouting commentary before opening-day)

 

 

TO GET THE LATEST DRAFT GUIDE DATA: REFRESH or RELOAD (right click, and select the refresh or reload…or hit F5/update option) your open web page with Draft Guide or Cheat Sheet showing.

*Worst case: close out of your open web page, and re-click original draft guide link to be auto-connected with the latest. Date on bottom of any page should show: 7/6/15.

=======================================

**Our ever-evolving, ever-updating to kick-off, Moneyball scouted, 2015 Fantasy Football e-Draft Guide and Cheat Sheets are on available now. Direct link: Draft Guide 2015 options **

==============================

 

Notes on items upcoming:

 — More player additions over the next few days/weeks. 

 

 

2014 Rewind Dynasty/Fantasy 2015 Study: WR Charles Johnson, Minnesota

Twitter @FFMetrics

tags — Charles Johnson, 2015 Dynasty-Fantasy Scouting Report, Cordarrelle Patterson, 2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft, Kyle Rudolph, Fantasy Football Draft, Teddy Bridgewater, PPR, ADP

 

In this article series, we look back at an individual player from 2014, and try to re-watch every play they were involved in. Using this isolation with a fresh perspective, I am re-charting plays, making notes, and trying to get a feel for if we are missing or confirming a potential Fantasy star in the making…or we try to confirm whether our fading memories, hype, and surface numbers from last season are leading to a twisted perception?

 

Today’s study: WR Charles Johnson

 

I would love for someone to eloquently explain to me why we are all supposed to be so excited about Minnesota Vikings WR Charles Johnson?

What has Johnson done to warrant such Fantasy Football enthusiasm? I know he has NFL-talent, but what did anyone see in 2014 that has so many people so excited?

 

Is it the output numbers?

It wasn’t like Johnson arrived on the scene with amazing plays, 100+ yard games and/or racking up several TDs. He was a fringe backup, working for his third team in two seasons—a guy who saw a few targets here and there early 2014, but got more integral in the game plan in Week-10. In that Week-10 contest, he caught 6 passes for 87 yards against one of the worst pass defenses on the 2014 season (the Bears). Yippee!!

Johnson followed that game up by catching three of his 11 targets, but one of them was a TD…so someone please alert Canton. Did any analyst actually watch and study him in this game? Johnson had three catches, but he also had his hands on four other passes that he didn’t catch. There were no flat-out, embarrassing drops, per se—just chances to make a play, and he didn’t. Some of them tough catches he couldn’t hang on to, and some just lack of concentration.

Johnson did have a 56-yard TD catch a few weeks later against the Jets, another horrific pass defense from 2014, giving him an eye-catching 4 catch, 104 yards stat line in that game. He followed his first/only 100+ yard effort on a dull note–with three quiet games to finish out 2014 as a full starter (and with Teddy taking off). His numbers over the final three games of the season: 3.3 FF PPG (6.6 PPR) on 5.7 targets, 3.3 receptions for 33.0 yards and 0.00 TDs per game.

After Johnson got his big break in that Week-10 Bears game, the game that ‘launched’ him into FF-excitement, Johnson then averaged a moderate 7.5 FF PPG (10.6 PPR) on 3.2 catches for 54.7 yards and 0.33 TDs per game for the rest of the season…which extrapolates to a full 16-game pace of: 51 catches 875 yards 5.3 TDs. It’s electric.

In Johnson’s final six games, Johnson caught a long TD where he burned the Jets 9th-string Cornerback by 5+ yards on a deep ball…and took it for a 56-yard TD. Ignore that play, and Johnson finished 2014 with a mediocre 3.0 catches for 45.7 yards and 0.16 TDs per game in his final six contests.

During Johnson’s rise to prominence starting Week-10, Fantasy analysts were orgasmic because Johnson led the Vikings in targets in many games. I think people are still clutching onto ‘the targets’ as some groundbreaking event, for some reason. He had a game with 11 targets (and just 3 catches), and in his other six games of note: 6.0 targets per game—which is not that ‘special’. He finished the season as a dud in his final three games, despite being more targeted than the other WRs, but Jarius Wright and Greg Jennings both out produced him in that final stretch. In Johnson’s final six games he caught 19 of his 41 targets, which is a disaster. Why doesn’t anyone harp on all the Johnson negatives or question marks? Why do we only hear/see him mentioned as a ‘given’ talent on the rise?

**See the 2015 NFL Draft and 2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft, like never before with our Moneyball-style scouting reports and rankings. Go to www.collegefootballmetrics.com **

 

Is it the tape?

I just watched every target Johnson took in 2014! The verdict: Yawwwwwn.

I’m not saying Johnson is a ‘bad’ player or anything, but I just didn’t see events on tape from 2014 that made me sit up in my seat. You watch any three random Cordarrelle Patterson plays, and you’ll see things your eyes will protest whether they are really happening or not. In a random grab bag of Patterson’s NFL plays, you might get a stellar kick return, or you might get a view of one of his long rushing TDs (since CP is one of the best RBs in NFL history along with Antone Smith), heck…you might even see a play of Patterson catching a pass. When Patterson catches passes, they are usually more rigorous catches than I see with Charles Johnson—like quick sideline timing throws with the ball thrown away from him, and he reaches out and snatches the ball in his hands while moving full speed. Patterson, to me, operates and moves like a gifted, star WR. Patterson makes catches that other WRs struggle with, but Patterson makes them look easy. After he catches a pass (easy or complex), then the real show begins.

When I watched all of Charles Johnson’s NFL targets, it was deep ball prayers his way and pre-designed quick slants. Things any ‘B’ or ‘C’ talent WR would be expected to work with. There may have been 1-2 plays I noted in 2014 where I exclaimed, “That was a nice catch in traffic.” More times than not it was boring throws where Johnson happened to be the guy on the other end of the throw. Most of his best games in 2014 (that weren’t all that great) came against some of the worst pass defenses in the NFL (Jets and Bears).

I’d like to expand in further detail why Johnson is either a gifted WR, or why he is an awful WR…but I really can’t, because he didn’t do anything different than 50-100+ other backup WRs in the NFL could do on tape. I don’t mean that as a major putdown. I know he’s a capable, athletic, solid NFL WR–we graded him solidly coming out of Grand Valley State. From what I’ve seen so far, he’ll go as far as his QB will take him. For his price (cut by GB, CLE, and sticking with MIN), he’s a steal by the Vikings front office. Is he the next great NFL WR? I don’t see it, yet.

Anyone who watches the 2013-2014 tape of both Cordarrelle Patterson and Charles Johnson, and declares Johnson as the superior WR needs to have their football assessment privileges taken away…and that’s not a slam of Johnson.

**Our ever-evolving, ever-updating to kick-off, Moneyball scouted, 2015 Fantasy Football e-Draft Guide and Cheat Sheets are on available now. Direct link: Draft Guide 2015 options **

 

Is it because of Norv Turner?

I get that Charles Johnson doesn’t have to be an ‘A’ talent to be FF-relevant, as long as he is solid (he is), starting and seeing targets. I get it. Norv is talking up Johnson…so ‘done deal’, right?

I would just caution you: Last preseason, Norv Turner basically proclaimed Patterson as the ‘next coming’…and about three weeks into the regular-season, he was giving us the coaching nonsense speak by saying, “We have to figure out how to get him (Patterson) the ball more.” A few weeks later, Patterson was benched for ‘not getting open enough’ (for Matt Cassel and Christian Ponder). Within a span of about two months, new Offensive Coordinator Norv Turner went from building an offense for Patterson to benching him (for no good reason that I saw).

If Turner is capable of this lapse in judgment on a #1 WR…what makes you think ‘inferior-to-CordarrelleCharles Johnson is etched in stone as the Vikings #1 or #2?

**Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics IDP Dynasty (three-year) projections now exist on the Fantasy Football Management technology: “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here (link): The Machine via FFM

 

Your best FF-argument with Charles Johnson is: “He’s good, and going to get better'” and you better HOPE so because if you watch all 59 targets in 2014, one after another, you wouldn’t be all that excited. You wouldn’t be left on the edge of your seat for the future as him becoming a Fantasy star reviewing his entire 2014. Solid…yes. Good…maybe. Upside to great…I’ve not seen an indication yet.

What you are really FF-excited about, when it boils down to it, is the hope of Johnson being the #2 WR for the Vikings in 2015+, a solid-to-good WR talent working with a QB that can ‘make him’. After watching all the Charles Johnson tape from 2014, the thing I walked away with the most was: “Damn, Teddy Bridgewater is really, really good.” Again, no swipe at Johnson. Working with Teddy Bridgewater is going to afford Charles Johnson things that working with Derek Carr and Blake Bortles does not.

When I watch the 2014 tape (in Miami) of new Vikings WR Mike Wallace, I feel bad he didn’t work with a better deep-ball QB.

When I watch tape of Kyle Rudolph from 2014, I am re-reminded of how slow he is. Good player, but slow.

When I watch tape of Cordarrelle Patterson from 2014, I get out of sorts and scream at my computer over why the Vikings aren’t getting him the ball more. I hold my breath every time he touches it.

When I watch tape of Charles Johnson from 2014, I agree with some of the announcers from games last season…”Nice catch by Greg Jennings,” and they usually don’t correct themselves. They also mean boring 2013-14 Greg Jennings, not the good one from years gone by. Not Old Spice Greg Jennings, just the now ‘old’ Greg Jennings. When I watch Johnson from 2014, it makes me appreciate Teddy Bridgewater—this is not a ringing endorsement for Johnson’s 2014.

When you bet on Charles Johnson for Fantasy Football 2015, you are making a bet he is the #2 WR and flourishes in keeping pace with Mike Wallace, Kyle Rudolph and Adrian Peterson, but unlike 2014–Johnson isn’t going to be the leader in targets/touches over that trio in 2015 (unless something goes really haywire). You’re also betting that Johnson holds his job over Cordarrelle Patterson, one of the most electric players with the ball in his hands in the NFL—do you really want to make that bet at the current price? Worst case CP and CJ just split targets in games…not FF-good for either.

The window where Johnson becomes FF-good/great all 2015 over the top of Wallace, Rudolph, and Patterson is very small, and thus a pricey jump through said small window opening. I just watched every target of Johnson’s in 2014, and after viewing it and looking at his current ADP…I’ll step aside and let you have that expensive lottery ticket. I didn’t see enough excitement on tape or in his numbers to get overheated about.

My recommendation is ‘pass’ on Johnson for redraft, because of the price/risk, and ‘sell’ on the Dynasty side while the price is hot. If Patterson has some big plays in the preseason, Johnson’s trade value is going to plummet. As a Johnson owner, you’ll always have Patterson in the shadows ready to steal trade value and targets from Johnson—you have a window right now, take advantage to sell him high.

 

 

R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst and writer for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. He is also a lead writer for ‘Play The Draft.com’. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here: The Machine via FFM

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Today’s ‘Rewind’ Study…and schedule for this week

FYI, today’s ‘Rewind’ study will post later today. Your only hint is: It’s a Wide Receiver. 

Schedule for research articles this week:

MON: 2014 Rewind Study (a WR)

TUE: Latest football news commentary

WED: 2014 Rewind Study

THU: Dynasty Rookie Draft ADP updates + Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings 8.0

FRI: Latest football news commentary

SAT-SUN: 2014 Game Rewind/Rewatch in 2015

Of course, as other news hits we will be commenting on that, and various articles and OTA notes on players you don’t see as much commentary on. 

 

49ers OTA Notes: Blake Bell, Quinton Patton, Kendall Hunter and more…

Twitter @FFMetrics

tags — Quinton Patton, Kendall Hunter, 2015 Fantasy Football Draft Guide, Blake Bell, Dynasty Rookie Draft, ADP, Dontae Johnson, IDP, PPR

 

As I was combing over random OTA notes from around the country, and I came across this snapshot (link below) take from a particular 49ers OTA. More than a few of the writer’s tidbits jive with my sources. Some of the highlight items from this article:

 — The piece notes that Quinton Patton shut out from the action, even when working with the 1st-team…which goes along with what I’m hearing. I’m not receiving any news on Patton making a huge step or stride this year. Not that he has an issue or is a problem talent-wise, but his status with the team isn’t changing—still kind of a forgotten guy. You hear more beat writer ‘buzz’ on 49ers UDFA from Alabama—WR DeAndrew White, than you do about Patton.

Patton’s not a star, but he is capable…and 1,000-times better of a WR prospect than White, but White is ‘fast’ so he’ll catch attention when working in shorts.

 — Blake Bell has been working all Tight End for the 49ers, from what I hear. I am hoping for evidence he is getting involved in clever goal-line packages as the new Tim Tebow with a TE-element. I cannot confirm anything on that. The notes in this article notes some positive plays where Bell is working downfield, which is a good sign.

Vance McDonald is probably dead in San Francisco. Put my nickel bet on this: McDonald released (or traded), and winds up in New England.

 — The writer talks about IDP CB Keith Reaser positively, and cites an example of almost picking off Blaine Gabbert. The reader’s comment section had some fun with that at the bottom of the article.

It still cracks me up how snide everyone is about Blaine Gabbert now…I wonder how many of the 49ers’ critics on him today would have immediately bought his jersey next day if the 49ers had drafted him and not Colin Kaepernick.

 This article has quick notes on: Keith Reaser, Jerome Simpson, Kendall Hunter, Blake Bell, Garrett Celek, Colin Kaepernick (not favorable), Dontae Johnson/CB, and Quinton Patton among others. 

Link to article: 49ers OTA observations from The Press Democrat

 

**Our ever-evolving, ever-updating to kick-off, Moneyball scouted, 2015 Fantasy Football e-Draft Guide and Cheat Sheets are on available now. Direct link: Draft Guide 2015 options **

 

2015 Fantasy Football Draft Guide Update SUN 7/5/15 (11:50pm ET)

Twitter @FFMetrics

tags — 2015 Fantasy Football Draft guide, dynasty rookie draft, ADP, PPR, rankings, sleepers

 

*The Overall top-24 PPR and non-PPR player rankings/valuations (and a few thousand words of commentary) for the FF-Draft are loaded on a new report for 2015.

Either re-click your original link, or refresh that home page/menu options page–the new report will be the first option above the different ways you can view the draft guide reports.*

*Overall top-24 commentary updates added 7/5

 

Players added since last update:  CJ2K, Ifeanyi Momah, Casey Spear, Chris Thompson, Juwan Thompson, Fitzgerald Toussaint

**See the 2015 NFL Draft and 2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft, like never before with our Moneyball-style scouting reports and rankings. Go to www.collegefootballmetrics.com **

 

Players with commentary ‘updates’ from breaking news: Antonio Gates, Ladarius Green, Virgil Green

Projection changes based on latest news and info (noted with ‘+’ or ‘–‘ on the Draft Guide):  Antonio Gates, Ladarius Green, Virgil Green, Austin Seferian-Jenkins

Current Draft Guide Player Count (projected, and with commentary): 480 players (on our way to 600+ players projected with scouting commentary before opening-day)

 

 

TO GET THE LATEST DRAFT GUIDE DATA: REFRESH or RELOAD (right click, and select the refresh or reload…or hit F5/update option) your open web page with Draft Guide or Cheat Sheet showing.

*Worst case: close out of your open web page, and re-click original draft guide link to be auto-connected with the latest. Date on bottom of any page should show: 7/5/15.

=======================================

**Our ever-evolving, ever-updating to kick-off, Moneyball scouted, 2015 Fantasy Football e-Draft Guide and Cheat Sheets are on available now. Direct link: Draft Guide 2015 options **

==============================

 

Notes on items upcoming:

 — More player additions over the next few days/weeks. 

 

 

Virgil Green: ‘Rare’ Video Footage…(and a 2015 Dynasty/Fantasy Upgrade)

Twitter @FFMetrics

tags — Virgil Green, 2015 Dynasty-Fantasy Scouting Report, Julius Thomas, 2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft, Ladarius Green, Fantasy Football Draft, Travis Kelce, PPR, ADP

 

If you’ve been with FFM for a while, you might be sitting along in this agonizing car ride with me for the past few years: You look at the Virgil Green’s NFL Combine numbers, then look at four seasons of nothing in the NFL, and we wonder together: “Why didn’t more come of him in Denver?” Perhaps, after the few seasons of Green-nothingness, you deduced the following (like me): “There must be NOTHING here because he never even has ‘a moment’ to get excited about.” At least with like a Ladarius Green or a Tyler Eifert, I have seen them have NFL moments, even if ‘false-starts’ of hope…I have something to hang my hat on with those two guys. With Virgil Green, I have an amazing NFL Combine and the fact that he got a handoff as a tailback in a playoff game in 2013…and NOTHING else.

After all that, for a moment this season, you still want to get excited about Virgil Green for Fantasy Football 2015…

Julius Thomas is gone. Virgil Green inked a respectable free agent deal to return (which preceded Thomas heading out) – a three year deal for $8.4M ($2.5M guaranteed). Maybe it’s because they really do love Green!!

However, the good times seemed to end with Gary Kubiak arriving, and bringing to Denver with him all his life essentials—his family, his clothes, his personal photos, his golf clubs, his favorite pillow, and Owen Daniels. You just know Kubiak is going to force Owen Daniels ahead of Virgil Green, am I right?

Or is he…?

**See the 2015 NFL Draft and 2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft, like never before with our Moneyball-style scouting reports and rankings. Go to www.collegefootballmetrics.com **

 

We don’t trust Kubiak in this equation, but what I really think all of our issues in this scenario revolve around: We (you and me) don’t trust/don’t feel good about Virgil Green’s ability to catch the ball or work in the passing game because it is rarely never/seen. I mean, when Julius Thomas got banged up last season, what did Virgil Green step in and do? Almost nothing! He had ONE target in one of the handful of games Julius missed—that’s it. Green was definitely NOT a ‘handcuff’ to Julius.

How can you get excited here about Virgil’s Dynasty/Fantasy prospects ahead? Is this just another year of false hope (which we’re all used to)? If I start hyping Virgil Green, you could easily dismiss it as similar to me pumping 2014 preseason hype on Ladarius Green, and you can’t afford to get burned on another ‘Green’ at Tight End. I get it. Keep in mind, I was also way ahead of the curve on Julius Thomas in the 2013 preseason—and that changed many of your fortunes in 2013 and the beginning of 2014 (‘So sorry, for your loss’ with him in Jacksonville now). Our computer scouting models do have a history of being ahead of the crowd on Tight End scouting.

Tight Ends exist in a Fantasy marketplace, especially in Dynasty, where you have to get ahead of the curve to find the ‘next great one’–because when you consider the State of the Tight End Union today—it’s FF-scary. It’s been upheaval of late: Jimmy Graham left FF-rich New Orleans. Julius died in Jacksonville. Vernon Davis went M.I.A. with Colin Kaepernick. You’re trying to make Travis Kelce into Rob Gronkowski…because what else is there to do? You’re way too excited by Larry Donnell hopes. The mainstream tried to push Zach Sudfeld on you as your TE savior in 2013, and Richard Rodgers last preseason. Everyone is TE-hysterical these days…trying to find ‘the next…”.

You have to chase ghosts among the Fantasy Tight Ends, and you might have to overpay…AND live (and die) with the fact that you might be burned by jumping in too soon–like with a Ladarius Green in 2014. Does Virgil Green deserve to be in the ‘TE-ghost’ category that you should start pursuing now?

I have been on the cautious sidelines with Virgil Green for FF-2015. I have always loved the Virgil Green ‘talent metrics’ in our system, but I have hated the four-year NFL reality. Part of the FF-reality is—I love a player so much that it almost seems like jinx them not to get a shot. Ladarius Green being a perfect example. However, I don’t believe in jinxes, and I know we were ahead of the curve on Gronk, Graham, and Julius—you know, the ones that worked out to become the 1-2-3 holy trinity of Fantasy Tight Ends the last couple of years (when healthy). The Ladarius Green crime of 2014 is being ‘too early’, not ‘bad scouting’ (so says me).

I think I’m ready to put Virgil Green in this class of more ‘probable’ than ‘possible’ breakout star Tight Ends. I think it’s time to elevate the projections and expectations of Virgil Green for FF-2015+. I just pray I’m not a little too early…

 

Here’s why I believe in Virgil Green, more strongly, now…

I watched back every target of Virgil Green in 2013 and 2014 (didn’t take that long). I was looking to see how he ‘received the ball’. Was there an issue where he is like Vance McDonald—terrific TE package athletically, but has seemingly dropped the ball the few times he got his shot in the NFL? I watched all the Virgil targets, and I am here to tell you—Virgil Green can catch. He receives the ball nicely. Which makes his last couple of years even more of a mystery.

Most of Virgil’s NFL catches have been from him lining up as a true TE, then sprinting a few yards towards the sidelines, and looking back as Peyton chucks him the ball–a nice, purposeful timing play specifically for Green. I never saw him drop any of those passes, or ‘fight the ball’ into his clutches over the past two seasons (on a limited sample size). He has big hands, and just snatches the ball and turns up field. He does it all very smoothly.

Green’s best NFL work has been with Brock Osweiler in regular-season garbage time (or in the preseason). In Week-17 versus Oakland, he split the middle of the field and was wide open, 15-20+ downfield, and made a nice catch on the move and nearly barreled in for a long TD. He would later, in that same game, catch a short TD pass with tight coverage on a slightly errant pass—again, he just snatched the ball confidently.

If you can trust me that Virgil Green can catch the ball well, and you already know he has the 4.6+ speed (nice for a TE) and 6.90 three cone agility (stellar for a TE), plus a 42.5” vertical (fantastic for any human)…then what’s holding all of us back on jamming Virgil Green higher in the rankings for FF-2015? Is it just Gary Kubiak/Owen Daniels fears (legit) standing in the way?…and/or feeling burned from Ladarius Green 2013 and 2014?

The issue is not Green’s talent for receiving, and that’s what I want you to ‘take away’ here. You can decide how you’re going to play the Kubiak/Daniels angle, but this does not appear anything to do with Green’s abilities for the passing game.

I thought there might be an issue with Green’s receiving skills, as the only explanation as to why such an ignoring by the coaches/QB the past few years. From all that I’ve re-studied, that’s not the issue. Green is an ace blocker, a good receiver, and a swift-footed tank after the catch. In other words, one of the better Tight Ends in the NFL ‘on paper’. AND in this case, he is a Tight End who gets to work with Peyton Manning in 2015–if he gets past aging, under-productive for years Owen Daniels. As an added bonus, Green also works well with Brock Osweiler (if Peyton goes down) from their days working together on the Broncos 2nd-team…in the ‘Broncos passing game Siberia’…a land where Peyton Manning thinks it’s funny to stay in games he’s up by 30+ points in and never allowing backups to come in and develop.

How highly are we willing to go with Virgil Green’s Fantasy 2015 projections? You will see that answer in our next 2015 Fantasy Football Draft Update scheduled for this very evening.

**Our ever-evolving, ever-updating to kick-off, Moneyball scouted, 2015 Fantasy Football e-Draft Guide and Cheat Sheets are on available now. Direct link: Draft Guide 2015 options **

 

Before you go, let me leave you with a few Virgil Green visual Christmas presents…

 

This first link is to an SB Nation article by ‘Bronco Mike’. You can read the article, but I especially want for you to watch the GIFs/clips embedded in the piece. You get a little more visual on Green’s hands and movements from last season…the possibilities.

The second visual is a YouTube, grainy highlight reel on Green from his days at Nevada with Colin Kaepernick. Green’s college numbers were so-so/OK with Kaepernick, but after we saw what CK did to Vernon Davis in 2014—I’m ready to lift the total blame off Green for the mediocre output (35 rec. for 515 yards and 5 TDs as a senior was his best year).

The third visual is a link to the Denver Broncos website, and the lost gem of Virgil Green lining up in the backfield as a tailback against New England in the 2013 playoffs, and taking a carry. Be sure to watch it at least twice. Do you think Travis Kelce could make those moves as a tailback? Jason Witten? I’ve seen TEs get end-around hand-offs, and I’ve seen other TE gadget running plays, but aside from Aaron Hernandez, I cannot recall a Tight End getting purposeful handoffs (Trey Burton did in 2014, but he may be more FB than TE…and he was a college running QB).

Virgil Green took two carries in games in 2014…as a single setback. We’re all just going to collectively yawn about the prospects of a TE so athletic he’s taking handoffs?

Watch, now Owen Daniels will rush for a 1,000+ yards this season…

 

Video LinkVirgil Green with video evidence of catching the ball!

 

 

Virgil Green 1+ minute highlight reel at Nevada:

 

 

Video Link:  Virgil Green RUNNING the ball!

 

tags — Virgil Green, 2015 Dynasty-Fantasy Scouting Report, Julius Thomas, 2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft, Ladarius Green, Fantasy Football Draft, Travis Kelce, PPR, ADP

 

A Dustin Vaughan 2015 Update for Dynasty Owners…

Twitter @FFMetrics

tags — 2015 Dynasty-Fantasy Scouting Report, Dustin Vaughan, 2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft, Fantasy Football Draft, PPR, ADP

 

One of the better QB prospects I scouted for the 2014 NFL Draft was West Texas A&M’s Dustin Vaughan. Our computer scouting models at College Football Metrics.com did not foretell of a guaranteed NFL superstar in waiting, but we did have several positive reads on the possibility Vaughan might be NFL-good, possibly NFL-great. He graded in a ‘gray area’ or ‘on the bubble’ of a QB we could endorse with little doubt. We are very intrigued…and the Cowboys got him for free, essentially, as a UDFA signing–BUT they also thought enough of him to use their a secure roster spot on him for all of 2014.

Vaughan has a great arm, and wonderful pocket fundamentals. He’s obviously raw, but promising. I am looking forward to seeing how he has progressed in the upcoming 2015 preseason games. 

I was checking around on what other’s were saying about Vaughan from the 2015 OTAs, and came across this couple of paragraph focus on him that some of you in deeper Dynasty leagues, holding Vaughan might enjoy (link) Dustin Vaughan Update 2015 OTAs

**See the 2015 NFL Draft and 2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft, like never before with our Moneyball-style scouting reports and rankings. Go to www.collegefootballmetrics.com **

 

 

tags — 2015 Dynasty-Fantasy Scouting Report, Dustin Vaughan, 2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft, Fantasy Football Draft, PPR, ADP

 

Suddenly, I’m On Trent Baalke’s Side…

Twitter @FFMetrics

 

You hear stories about Jim Harbaugh being ‘difficult’ or ‘awkward’ to be around, but then you wonder how much of that is trumped up by people who are jealous or anti-whatever team he is coaching, etc. Public figures always get a ton of ‘whisper’ hate from folks who really have no idea what they are talking about. I’m in that camp a lot—I take secondhand info, or I catch someone on a bad day, or I don’t fully realize all the facts, because the info is protected knowledge. We’ve all done it. For some reason, it’s easier to pass arm chair judgment (good and bad) on football coaches and politicians…I don’t know why that is.

I watched Harbaugh quickly succeed in San Francisco, and I felt like I needed to give him ‘a pass’…or the benefit of being the one person for the Niners that had their head screwed on straight. I initially mocked the hiring of Harbaugh to the 49ers in 2011 as a little too over-hyped, and he might not be a coach players will suffer with for long…but two back-to-back Super Bowl runs with Colin Kaepernick means you’re a coaching genius–or God REALLY loves you.

When the 49ers fired Harbaugh, and replaced him with Jim Tomsula this offseason…the intro press conference for Tomsula was one of the most painful things I’ve ever witnessed media-wise. GM Trent Baalke seemed like an empty suit; every bad VP of your company you ever met. Tomsula felt like ‘Tommy Boy’ with a porn mustache who had somehow now been allowed to coach an NFL team…as if it was an Adam Sandler movie set up. Honestly, the more I get behind the curtains of professional football—the more I am horrified at the decision-making and personalities running the show. They are normal people, just like all of us—except that other human’s inordinately worship or despise their work life publicly, which has to mess with these coaches and GMs decision-making process and personal psychology.

I thought the Tomsula intro press conference was horrifying, but Jim Harbaugh made an effort to top him on Colin Cowherd’s show this past week. I’m not sure how to explain this event, besides saying—just watch it when you have 7 minutes to burn. Try not to skip any of it, because you will have an urge to about two minutes in, but you need all of it to have the proper context of what is going to happen at the end. It is 4 minutes of Harbaugh being painfully interviewed, and then 3 minutes of Colin going all ‘Soup Nazi’ on him. You have to see it to believe it. Cowherd quips, at one point, it might have been the worst interview he’s done in 12+ years.

**Our ever-evolving, ever-updating to kick-off, Moneyball scouted, 2015 Fantasy Football e-Draft Guide and Cheat Sheets are on available now. Direct link: Draft Guide 2015 options **

 

 

Rishard Matthews: Loved by Teammates (and me), But Still Ignored By His Coaches…

Twitter @FFMetrics

tags — Rishard Matthews, 2015 Dynasty-Fantasy Scouting Report, 2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft, Fantasy Football Draft, PPR, ADP

 

I said it when he came out of Nevada in 2012, and have mentioned it dozens of time since—Rishard Matthews is one of the most underrated/underutilized players in all the NFL.

I have not mentioned Matthews with a pat on the head statement of: “He’s good.” No, I’m here to tell you he is a Pro Bowl caliber player being totally wasted on the Miami Dolphins. He has tremendous hands, and a body (for his size) that is nearly unparalleled (incredibly strong for his size–thick/muscular at 6’0” with excellent agility). I’ve proclaimed this so many times, and nothing has materialized besides that flash in mid-2013…so it feels like I’m just howling at the moon.

Well, apparently a few of his teammates decided to howl with me. Hit the link to this Miami Herald blurb, and you can scroll down past 90% basketball/baseball content to a little Dolphins blip at the bottom about Mr. Matthews.

I’m telling you, I’m not wrong here, and I’m not backing down off my evaluation. Whether he ever gets a fair shake will remain to be seen—and it likely won’t be until 2016, when he hits free agency. It will almost assuredly never happen with Miami.

Link to the story:  Rishard Matthews Nugget from the Miami Herald

**See the 2015 NFL Draft and 2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft, like never before with our Moneyball-style scouting reports and rankings. Go to www.collegefootballmetrics.com **

 

tags — Rishard Matthews, 2015 Dynasty-Fantasy Scouting Report, 2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft, Fantasy Football Draft, PPR, ADP

 

What Ladarius Green and Saul Goodman Might Have in Common Now…

Twitter @FFMetrics

tags — Antonio Gates suspension, Ladarius Green impact, 2015 Dynasty-Fantasy Scouting Report, 2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft, Fantasy Football Draft, PPR, ADP

 

Obviously, when I heard about the Antonio Gates suspension my heart swooned for my long-lost love—Ladarius Green. After a brief smile, I quickly talked myself back into reality…and was left forlorn.

You know this will be like a made-for-TV prank on me (and many of you), right?

All my enthusiasm and ‘lack of proper use’ complaining about Green since he came out of Louisiana-Lafayette, and FINALLY he gets a break…and now I’m not happy about it!

Why?

Two reasons:

1) As sure as I sit here, Ladarius Green will shine for four weeks, and Antonio Gates will walk right back in Week-5 and take all the targets at TE, and Green will be back to blocking.

You’d think there would be ‘no turning back’ if Green explodes in those four weeks, right? Wrong.

This is a Chargers’ team/coaching staff that has chirped for two straight years that Green is special and ‘how they must get him the ball more’—and then they don’t. They’ve already seen Green go wild in spots in the 2013 regular-season, and in the 2013 and 2014 preseason…Green is not an unknown entity to any of them. They’ve seen him be a mismatch nightmare—and then just walked away from him to get Malcom Floyd and Eddie Royal more involved, I guess. Green had only 25 targets last year. It’s criminal. Why would I believe they’d ‘get it’ now?

 

2) And this is the worst one for me…

What do you think is going to happen after the July 4th weekend, and all the national Fantasy writers and pundits start getting back to work? Get ready for a steady dose of, “I like this Ladarius Green kid. He’s a Fantasy sleeper!”…and then my head explodes.

The first analyst who thinks he is clever that writes the line “The Chargers may not miss a beat with Green in for Gates,” I swear…

All my Debbie Downer-isms aside…

This really is good news (beyond the obvious) for the FFM-faithful that held this ‘stock’ (Ladarius) in Dynasty. Here’s why:

Green will get that four week ‘audition’, plus a heavier workload with the first-team passing game in the preseason. Green will have a major opportunity to show himself, and even if I’m right about him going all ‘Saul Goodman to Nebraska’ after Gates returns, the key point to all this…call it the ‘2nd-best news’ coming from this moment is that Green is a Free Agent at year’s end. With a great showing in those four weeks, it should mean that he is the apple of the 2016 Free Agent market at Tight End…which hopefully means more New Orleans than Buffalo.

The ‘1st-best news’ from this (potentially): Green is so good in those first four weeks, that the Chargers are forced to embark on the R.C. Fischer plan from 2013…and it’s already proven! That plan is: Hey, Mike McCoy….LADARIUS GREEN AND ANTONIO GATES CAN COEXIST IN A PASSING GAME, AND BOTH BE FANTASTIC—IN FACT, THEY HELP EACH OTHER OPERATE!!!

Green can be a force playing snap for snap with Gates—it doesn’t have to be either-or. Perhaps, the 24th time the coaches see it since 2013 ‘will be the charm’.

For Fantasy-2015, I am interested to see what this does to Ladarius’s ADP. My guess is it pulls him from non-existent to top-20 in redrafts, but not top-12. There is too much of a glass ceiling (post Week-4) for him to go top-12 in normal redraft leagues. He should be a part of your TE2 drafting strategy, quickly before others try it. If you can’t get in on one of Gronk-Graham…then get ___ + Green. Worst case it’s sweet for four weeks—a critical first four weeks…and you can scramble for TEs after. Best case: This has legs after Week-4 as well.

Green + Gates may be as good of a non-Gronk or non-Graham TE scenario you can get right now—for redraft and Dynasty.

So get excited all you weary Ladarius-holders! It’s a good day!! I hope…

…just prepare yourself for this (clip below) kind of 2015 ending after the horn sounds in Week-4. This is a clip sent from the future, which shows a pale looking Ladarius Green explaining to you what his likely status with Phillip Rivers/the Chargers will be from Weeks 5-17 next season. You look a lot like Walter White in this clip…

 

 

I did not know Saul had proclaimed these words until I stumbled into it on an accidental search for a clip, fans of the TV Show ‘Better Call Saul’ knows what these words mean.

If you haven’t watched ‘Breaking Bad’ and chased that with ‘Better Call Saul’, then I hurt for you. Everyone has the cliche ‘best show ever made’ on ‘Breaking Bad’, it might have scared you that it is way over-hyped (it did for me). It is not over-hyped. Watching it in it’s entirety is a must, and I command you to watch it from the beginning–it’s why God invented iTunes and Netflix, etc. 

If Amazon is more your thing–please, click through our link to acquire it for ‘Prime’ or buying a DVD collector set.  Link — Amazon.com: Online Shopping for Electronics, Apparel, Computers, Books, DVDs & more **

tags — Antonio Gates suspension, Ladarius Green impact, 2015 Dynasty-Fantasy Scouting Report, 2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft, Fantasy Football Draft, PPR, ADP

 

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