Fantasy Football Metrics

2014 Fantasy Football Draft Guide Update MON 9/1/14 1:20pm ET

Players added since last update:  Trey Burton

Players with commentary ‘updates’: Ryan Mallett, 

Projection changes based on latest ‘Intell’ (noted with ‘+’ or ‘–’ on the Draft Guide):  Dri Archer, Odell Beckham Jr., Kelvin Benjamin, Clay Harbor, Doug Martin, Ben Tate, Andre Williams, Damien Williams

 

TO GET THE LATEST DRAFT GUIDE DATA: REFRESH or RELOAD (right click, and select the option) your open web page with Draft Guide or Cheat Sheet showing. *Worst case: close out of your open web page, and re-click original draft guide link to be auto-connected with the latest. Date on bottom of any page should show: 9/1/14.

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Fantasy Pro’s ‘Speed’ Mock Draft Tool : Link to FP’s Quick Mock vs. National Experts

**Our ever-evolving, ever-updating to kick-off, Moneyball scouted, 2014 Fantasy Football e-Draft Guide and Cheat Sheets are on sale now. Direct link:  FFM 2014 Draft**

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NEW: Top-24 PPR and non-PPR player draft rankings for Draft Guide Users! We added a top-24 overall (by popular demand, as much as I tried to not do it!) based on our computer model’s valuation of a 12-team, 4 pts per pass TD, 1QB-2RB-2WR-1TE, generic league.

As soon as you change a variable from our valuation model (more/less teams, different starting lineup requirements, scoring variables), the whole ‘rank’ model changes…so use for ‘entertainment purposes only’. That’s why I am always hesitant to recommend a top-10 generic guidance…so many variables change the landscape.  There are two reports (non and PPR) with this special list/rank…and they are with the ‘Washington’ team-defense projections (last team in alphabetical, so we used them)…you’ll see it. IF you choose the “by Team Name…” option from the main draft guide page…go to the last/next to last pages and you’ll see them with the Washington players with obvious titles “Top-24…”)

It’s not where we are saying you should draft them, but rather where we think the most FF-economic valuable players are…and you’ll be semi-shocked by some of the names/positions we are valuing higher this year (so far).

 **If you enjoy the free content on Fantasy Football Metrics.com please consider making your next Amazon purchase through our website/link partnership with Amazon. You’re going to buy something at Amazon anyway, there is no extra charge — help give us a little love! Feel free to save/bookmark this link in your favorites and you will have it for all future Amazon purchases. Thanks for your consideration! Link – Amazon.com: Online Shopping for Electronics, Apparel, Computers, Books, DVDs & more **

 

2014 Preseason Week-4 Dynasty-Fantasy Recap: Steelers vs. Panthers (8/28/2014)

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Ryan Shazier (5 tackles, 1 solo) was credited in on 5 tackles (mostly assisted this week)…he just missed another 2-3 tackles. It’s almost guaranteed money that Shazier is going to post 10+ tackles per game this season…an IDP god that rivals Paul Worrilow.

 – We got a glimpse of rookie TE Rob Blanchflower (1 rec. for 5 yards on 2 targets) in this game. The Steelers did what most teams do with guys who are late-round draft picks, but barely play in the preseason (due to nagging injury)–they cut him. No one picked him up (because he didn’t catch anyone’s attention from lack of playing time/’gentlemen’s agreement around the NFL), and they stashed him on the practice squad.

See our 800+ word, statistical scouting report of Rob Blanchflower at College Football Metrics.com. 

**See the 2014 Dynasty Rookie Draft, like never before with our Moneyball-style scouting reports and rankings CFM website **

 

 – Kelvin Benjamin (4 rec. for 45 yards on 7 targets) was playing the 1Q of this game, and made several catches. He has much better hands than we ever gave him credit, and again I say…it makes a little more sense why we got messed up on his scouting grade coming out of college, because of our recent scouting research on Jameis Winston. You did see his opening game vs. Oklahoma State, right? Now your starting to know…

Where NFL trouble could lie for Benjamin is that he has nice hands, nice size, nice catching radius…but he’s not a special athlete to separate from 1st-team/#1 CBs that he will draw. He could really FF-disappoint from FF-expectations with the weak Carolina WR corps he has been thrown in with. Not his fault. I’d probably pass on fair value Benjamin in a redraft or Dynasty Rookie Draft and wait for the disappointment to settle in before making a move (if I wanted him) mid-season.

 – Steven Houston (4 carries for 14 yards) was clinging to NFL-life with the Steelers, after getting cold dropped by the Patriots. Just when you want to nail his NFL-coffin shut, Houston has a brilliant cutback run in this game…a run/move most NFL RBs cannot make. His athletic talent is terrific…his heart and desire are obviously lacking. It appears, he did not make the Steelers practice squad. He’s got two NFL-strikes out of three, quickly.

 – Shamarko Thomas (6 tackles, 5 solo, 1 TFL) is going to push 100+ tackles a year once Troy Polomalu moves on. Thomas is a wonderful tackler, and excellent athlete. He came up on the line a few times in this game, and made hits in the backfield to ballacarriers before the play could ever get going. He will matter in IDP someday.

**Our ever-evolving, ever-updating to kick-off, Moneyball scouted, 2014 Fantasy Football e-Draft Guide and Cheat Sheets are available now. FFM website **

 

 – I don’t think things are going well for Carolina rookie DE Kony Ealy (3 tackles, 2 sacks). When I’ve watched his plays this preseason, I’ve never been impressed (and going back to college as well). His sacks in this game were more charity, later in the game against a 4th-string QB. The fact he was playing with that level of talent on the field in the 2nd-half of the 4th-preseason game is not a good sign for him either.

 

– R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” hereThe Machine via FFM

 **If you enjoy the free content on Fantasy Football Metrics.com please consider making your next Amazon purchase through our website/link partnership with Amazon. You’re going to buy something at Amazon anyway, there is no extra charge — help give us a little love! Feel free to save/bookmark this link in your favorites and you will have it for all future Amazon purchases. Thanks for your consideration! Link – Amazon.com: Online Shopping for Electronics, Apparel, Computers, Books, DVDs & more **

 

2014 IDP Season Rankings: DLs

Twitter @FFMetrics

An update before we enter the final week of FF-drafting. Again, we are just testing our IDP systems this year. If all is well, and you are seeing value…next year we will have a bigger IDP footprint. Sorry, for the format…that’s still being worked on too. 

 

Rank FF Pts LB Name Tm
1 184.0 Watt, J.J. HOU
2 159.0 Quinn, Robert STL
3 154.3 Jones, Chandler NE
4 126.2 Campbell, Calias ARI
5 125.5 Jordan, Cameron NO
6 124.5 Wilkerson, Muhammad NYJ
7 124.5 Vernon, Olivier MIA
8 123.7 Johnson, Michael TB
9 122.0 Allen, Jared CHI
10 120.1 Ninkovich, Rob NE
11 119.8 Pierre-Paul, Jason NYG
12 118.5 Tuck, Justin NYG
13 116.3 Hardy, Greg CAR
14 113.0 Ware, Demarcus DEN
15 112.8 Griffen, Everson MIN
16 112.3 Richardson, Sheldon NYJ
17 111.8 Williams, Kyle BUF
18 110.3 Dunlap, Carlos CIN
19 110.0 Clayborn, Adrian TB
20 108.5 Casey, Jurrell TEN
21 108.5 Houston, Lamarr CHI
22 108.3 Heyward, Cameron PIT
23 107.8 Johnson, Charles CAR
24 106.8 McCoy, Gerald TB
25 105.8 Williams, Mario BUF
26 103.0 Avril, Cliff SEA
27 102.3 Robison, Brian MIN
28 101.8 Ansah, Ezekiel DET
29 100.8 Clemons, Chris JAC
30 100.8 Dareus, Marcel BUF
31 110.3 Suh, Nd DET
32 99.8 Bennett, Michael SEA
33 99.8 Poe, Dontari KC
34 99.5 Long, Chris STL
35 96.0 Wake, Cameron MIA
36 93.3 Donald, Aaron STL
37 86.0 Wolfe, Derek DEN
38 85.3 Cox, Fletcher PHI
39 81.5 Atkins, Geno CIN
40 73.0 Woodley, Lamarr OAK

 

2014 IDP Season Rankings: LBs

Twitter @FFMetrics

An update before we enter the final week of FF-drafting. Again, we are just testing our IDP systems this year. If all is well, and you are seeing value…next year we will have a bigger IDP footprint. Sorry, for the format…that’s still being worked on too. 

 

Rank FF Pts LB Name Tm
1 243.9 Worrilow, Paul ATL
2 243.4 Kuechly, Luke CAR
3 240.2 David, Lavonte TB
4 237.3 Wagner, Bobby SEA
5 232.2 Shazier, Ryan PIT
6 232.1 Poslunsky, Paul BUF
7 220.7 Freeman, Jerrell IND
8 214.0 Burfict, Vontaze CIN
9 208.0 Kendricks, Mychal PHI
10 204.6 Ogletree, Alec STL
11 203.0 Johnson, Derrick KC
12 199.0 Collins, Jamie NE
13 194.7 Briggs, Lance CHI
14 194.3 Mayo, Jerod NE
15 193.7 Laurantis, James STL
16 193.7 Levy, DeAndre DET
17 190.0 Smith, Daryl BAL
18 189.0 Greenway, Chad MIN
19 186.0 Timmons, Lawrence PIT
20 184.8 Ryans, DeMeco PHI
21 184.3 Willis, Patrick SF
22 183.2 Robinson, Keenan WAS
23 179.3 Dansby, Karlos CLE
24 177.5 Jackson, Da’Quell IND
25 175.5 Riley, Perry WAS
26 174.5 Cushing, Brian HOU
27 174.5 Butler, Donald SD
28 171.6 Lofton, Curtis ATL
29 170.8 Davis, Thomas CAR
30 170.8 Tulloch, Stephen TEN
31 169.0 Roach, Nick OAK
32 167.0 Miller, Von DEN
33 162.8 Hightower NE
34 162.3 Mack, Khalil OAK
35 162.3 Foster, Mason TB
36 162.1 Brown, Zach TEN
37 161.0 Harris, David NYJ
38 161.0 Woodyard, Wesley DEN
39 157.5 Houston, Justin KC
40 156.5 Hawk, A.J. GB
41 153.0 Jones, Brad GB
42 150.0 Moore, Sio OAK
43 146.3 Cole, Audie MIN
44 145.0 Kerrigan, Ryan WAS
45 145.0 Ellerbe MIA
46 142.3 Spikes, Brandon BUF
47 141.3 George, Jeremiah NYJ
48 136.8 Mingo, barkevious CLE
49 136.0 Carter, Bruce DAL
50 133.5 Te’o, Manti SD

 

2014 IDP Season Rankings: DBs (Update 10pm ET)

Twitter @FFMetrics

An update before we enter the final week of FF-drafting. Again, we are just testing our IDP systems this year. If all is well, and you are seeing value…next year we will have a bigger IDP footprint. Sorry, for the format…that’s still being worked on too. 

*We needed to update for Reshad Jones suspension (4 games, and Chris Clemons cut)

 

Rank FF Pts DB Name Team
1 187.8 Weddle, Eric SD
2 177.9 Smith, Harrison MIN
3 174.9 Rolle, Antrel NYG
4 173.5 Cyprien, Johnathan JAC
5 170.3 Thomas, Earl SEA
6 169.0 Berry, Eric KC
7 168.8 Church, Barry DAL
8 166.8 Burnett, Morgan GB
9 165.0 Reid, Eric SF
10 162.8 Williams, Cary PHI
11 161.3 Amukamara, Prince NYG
12 159.8 Hall, DeAngelo WAS
13 157.3 Tillman, Charles CHI
14 154.0 Pollard, Bernard TEN
15 152.6 Jenkins, Malcom PHI
16 152.5 Swearinger, D.J. HOU
17 152.3 Pryor, Calvin NYJ
18 151.0 Ward, T.J. DEN
19 151.0 Graham, Corey CHI
20 150.5 McCourty, Devin NE
21 150.0 Williams, Tramon GB
22 146.8 McCourty, Jason TEN
23 146.5 McDonald, T.J. STL
24 145.0 Barron, Mark TB
25 145.0 Moore, William ATL
26 144.9 Byrd, Jairus NO
27 143.8 Goldson, Dashon TB
28 143.0 Landry, LaRon IND
29 142.3 Flowers, Brandon KC
30 141.3 Williams, Duke BUF
31 139.3 Jenkins, Janoris STL
32 138.8 Bethea, Antoine SF
33 138.8 Chancellor, Kam SEA
34 138.4 Trufant, Desmond ATL
35 137.5 Branch, Tyvon OAK
36 137.0 Whitner, Donte CLE
37 136.3 Gipson, Tashaun CLE
38 135.3 Vaccaro, Kenny NO
39 134.9 Elam, Matt BAL
40 134.8 Sherman, Richard SEA
41 134.3 Bucannon, Deone ARI
42 134.0 Mitchell, Mike PIT
43 132.5 Williams, Aaron BUF
44 131.5 Ihedigbo, James DET
45 130.5 Gilmore, Stephon BUF
46 130.0 Munnerlyn, Capt MIN
47 129.8 Clark, Ryan WAS
48 129.5 Polamalu, Troy PIT
49 129.0 Verner, Alterraun TB
50 127.8 Brown, Stevie NYG

 

2014 Preseason Week-4 Dynasty-Fantasy Recap: Eagles vs. Jets (8/28/2014)

Twitter @FFMetrics

 – Stephen Hill (1 rec. for 13 yards on 2 targets) caught one quick slant pass, and butchered another, and now the former 1st-round pick is a former Jet. He just doesn’t have the hands to be what he was advertised as/hoped for. He is worth a lottery ticket shot on a team wanting to take a look just to be sure that it wasn’t the QB-play exasperated his weak catching skills. The cold hard truth is…Hill is just not a graceful receiver of the ball. He has the ‘bust’ label attached to him now, which will make him a little NFL-toxic. His physical attributes warrant 2-3 more shots/resurfacing in various places. Likely he disappears without a trace in 2-3 years.

**Our ever-evolving, ever-updating to kick-off, Moneyball scouted, 2014 Fantasy Football e-Draft Guide and Cheat Sheets are available now. FFM website **

 

 – Philly Safety Earl Wolff (2 tackles) just has not caught my attention this preseason. He looks like a very average tackler with decent athleticism in coverage. His IDP potential is fading.

 – Jeremiah George’s (7 tackles) IDP candle is burning bright. Someday soon he will be the Jets starter at ILB. That dude is just 150% in pursuit of the ball every play. He was so in college, and he has been when given the chance this preseason. He’s probably more of a 2015+ story, but if he is forced into playing time in 2014 via injury to starters…he’s going to impact right away.

**See the 2014 Dynasty Rookie Draft, like never before with our Moneyball-style scouting reports and rankings CFM website **

 

 – I’ve been impressed with Trey Burton (6 rec. for 45 yards and 1 TD on 6 targets) every time I’ve seen him this preseason. He catches everything. He’s not an off-the-charts athlete, but he’s OK enough for the NFL (4.6+ runner, 6’2″ tall). He fits more as an Aaron Hernandez-type TE, or an H-back. He might just become a 4th-WR, jack of all trades for Philly. He has been impressive enough this preseason that he is the only UDFA to make a very deep Eagles team.

 

– R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” hereThe Machine via FFM

 **If you enjoy the free content on Fantasy Football Metrics.com please consider making your next Amazon purchase through our website/link partnership with Amazon. You’re going to buy something at Amazon anyway, there is no extra charge — help give us a little love! Feel free to save/bookmark this link in your favorites and you will have it for all future Amazon purchases. Thanks for your consideration! Link – Amazon.com: Online Shopping for Electronics, Apparel, Computers, Books, DVDs & more **

 

2014 Preseason Week-4 Dynasty-Fantasy Recap: Rams vs. Dolphins (8/28/2014)

Twitter @FFMetrics

 – A mild shock with the Dolphins releasing Daniel Thomas (13 carries for 38 yards and 1 TD) this weekend. Keep his saga etched in your Dynasty-memory banks: Higher draft pick, a hot opening a couple of performances, all the Fantasy world chasing…then FF-death…now released.

Part of this game we call Fantasy: ‘Selling high’ when you ‘know’ these players, and not buying into one moment (good or bad). I think of Daniel Thomas, and it reminds me of all the crappy emails I got for blasting him pre-his rookie season, but then he had a nice game or two, and everyone went bonkers for him, and let me know about it. Today, and for years, you’ve had nothing. No apology emails sent. 

His release does shift a little attention towards rookie Damien Williams (3 carries for 14 yards, 2 rec. for 14 yards on 3 targets) as perhaps seeing time if Knowshon Moreno stumbles with his various injuries. I’m not a huge fan, but I do like the situation. I’m a little more of an Orleans Darkwa (11 carries for 22 yards, 1 rec. for 8 yards on 1 target) guy, but I really am not overly jazzed by either…but will be if they are thrust into playing time.

Then again, I won’t be that excited if they are jammed into the lineup: The Miami O-Line is so dreadful, it’s really not going to matter much for any of the RBs involved.

**See the 2014 Dynasty Rookie Draft, like never before with our Moneyball-style scouting reports and rankings CFM website **

 

 –  Tre Mason (6 carries for 14 yards, 1 rec. for 9 yards on 1 target) appears to be struggling, but I think he’s going to be OK. He’s getting a bit of a rookie snub…inexperienced, trouble pass blocking…all the typical rookie stuff. He’ll be useful if called upon. He’s just not needed right now.

Why the Rams selected Mason so highly in the context of their own depth chart, the favorable contract statuses, and the general availability of 3rd-string/developmental RBs off waivers…I have no idea? It makes me further question the non-business savvy approach these GMs/organizations are lacking. A team with an always injured starting QB (Bradford), doesn’t draft a ‘real’ QB prospect…unreal. Watching this preseason game, Rams GM Les Snead was interviewed during the game…he was staunchly, defiantly behind the Hill-Davis QB plan. Let’s see where in the top-15 the Rams will be picking in the 2015 NFL Draft.

**Our ever-evolving, ever-updating to kick-off, Moneyball scouted, 2014 Fantasy Football e-Draft Guide and Cheat Sheets are available now. FFM website **

 

 – The way to play Jarvis Landry (3 rec. for 28 yards on 3 targets) for Dynasty purposes: Do not select him in the Dynasty Rookie Draft, but wait until later this year when his price drops to nothing to pick him up off the scrap heap. He is a very talented ‘hands’ WR on a team with poor QB play…he is a square peg for a round hole. Next season, the Dolphins are likely to flush the coaching staff and QB, so I’d have more interest in Landry when things get changed (again) in Miami.

 

– R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” hereThe Machine via FFM

 **If you enjoy the free content on Fantasy Football Metrics.com please consider making your next Amazon purchase through our website/link partnership with Amazon. You’re going to buy something at Amazon anyway, there is no extra charge — help give us a little love! Feel free to save/bookmark this link in your favorites and you will have it for all future Amazon purchases. Thanks for your consideration! Link – Amazon.com: Online Shopping for Electronics, Apparel, Computers, Books, DVDs & more **

 

Top-10 Recently Released Prospects For Dynasty-Fantasy/NFL Purposes…

Twitter @FFMetrics

As a fan of Dynasty deep-sleepers, and/or as a fan of an NFL team, you should take interest in some of the names evicted away from their homes in the past 48-hours. Most of these players will be re-signed back to their own practice squad, which is almost like nothing ever really happened…because NFL teams are an elite business operation that wants to win at all costs, for you the fan, except for being sure not to break the unwritten rule of signing away someone else’s talent they are trying to stow away. You don’t want to hurt anyone’s feelings.

At first, I thought the ‘hands-off’ approach to these prospects was the niceness of not wanting to break the unwritten rule. Now, I know better…I don’t think most of these teams really KNOW 50%+ of the names being released.

I know them…so here’s the ten players I would consider poaching away off waivers, which rolls into deep-dynasty prospects to watch.

I am ranking them as if I were an NFL GM, so these are football-important considerations to make the list…

 

#11) CB Greg Ducre (formerly SD) — I give you #11 of the 10, because I over-deliver! The measurables are there. He looked decent in glimpses during the preseason. He is a smart one for SD to quietly hide on waivers hoping no one detects…because no team seemed to notice during the draft or UDFA period. It’s very, very likely he is back with the Chargers. He should go to a team that needs CB depth…which most all need.

#10) RB Michael Cox (formerly NYG) — He would be Arizona’s #2 RB right now. He would be the Jeremy Hill to Gio Bernard for Andre Ellington. The Giants have gone brain dead in personnel management the past two seasons. Enjoy Peyton Hillis. I think Cox will get snatched away versus a return trip to the practice squad. I am going to predict Miami Dolphins as his next spot.

#9) WR Stephen Hill (formerly NYJ) — I’m pretty sure he cannot catch, and is an off-field headache. However, he has a point that he was stuck in a mess of an offense the past two seasons. His measurables are too great not to take a cheap look. He predicted Cleveland, and I will also predict Cleveland. The dark horse teams are Seattle and New England.

#8) QB Connor Shaw (formerly CLE) — QB is the utmost importance in the NFL. If any QB prospect has a hint of hope, you have to move Brady Quinn or Colt McCoy or Blaine Gabbert aside, and take a chance versus the certain death with the QB-types I just named. Shaw is the less flashy, weaker-armed Johnny Manziel you were looking for. If I ran that kind of offense, I would give him a look. I think he goes back with Cleveland, but an outside shot he winds up on Buffalo or Seattle.

**See the 2014 Dynasty Rookie Draft, like never before with our Moneyball-style scouting reports and rankings CFM website **

 

#7) DT Lawrence Okoye (formerly SF) — No NFL human has the measured size and athleticism of Okoye. The former British track & field star is super-raw, and super-interesting. Likely he re-signs with the 49ers.

#6) QB Brad Sorensen (formerly SD) — We’re not predicting stardom here, but Sorensen has some talent. He’s in that excellent backup QB zone…the kind where an injury hits the starter, and Sorensen jumps in and plays well, and thus becomes a Kirk Cousins, Matt Flynn, Luke McCown apple of everyone’s eye. Likely back with San Diego. Buffalo should be interested.

#5) TE Erik Swoope (formerly IND) — We’ve only seen glimpses this preseason, but I love what I saw. Former Miami, Fla. hoops player trying to convert to football. He is as muscular a TE as you’ll find with basketball agility for his size…I’d want to see more. Likely, he slides back to Indy. Green Bay or Atlanta would be smart to make a move here. 

#4) LB Andrew Jackson (formerly IND) — Two Indy players in the top-5 is good/bad for the Colts. Great that they have talent this deep, but they may have these guys slip right through their fingers. Jackson was a 6th-round pick in 2014, and was a tackle machine for Western Kentucky. He has starter ability in the NFL. Some NFL team has to have room him…like Dallas or Chicago.

**Our ever-evolving, ever-updating to kick-off, Moneyball scouted, 2014 Fantasy Football e-Draft Guide and Cheat Sheets are available now. FFM website **

 

#3) LB Korey Toomer (formerly SEA) – Toomer has sensational athleticism. He has been hurt in his first few years, and made some noise in this year’s training camp, but has not done much on the field. He has been on a very deep Seattle roster. Seattle may be trying to slip one by everyone. I’d want to take a look at what Seattle many be hiding. I’m interested to see if Gus Bradley, former coach, makes a move here with the Jags. If not, I’ll be way less excited about his NFL prospects.

#2) WR Josh Boyce (formerly NE) – A 4th-round WR for New England last year, who was making a move to become a starter late 2013. Perhaps, there are issues off the field? Aside from that: Boyce was running neck and neck with Kenbrell Thompkins to start Week-1 of the preseason, and then ‘lost’ the battle. It’s not like he is devoid of talent. The Pats have a number’s game at WR, and I’m shocked they made this move, but happy for Boyce. He’s KC’s 2nd-best WR right now…I hope he goes there. Don’t rule out the Eagles or Falcons.

#1) QB Ricky Stanzi (formerly JAC) — I cannot state enough the reminder of: QB is the most critical position of all in the NFL. Our computer scouting models initially saw Stanzi as a Brady-clone, and I haven’t budged from that after watching him in the past preseasons. Perhaps, we are ultimately wrong here. However, with the absolute dumpster fires NFL teams have serving as backup and developmental QBs…why not give this a look-see? I think HOU, BUF, NO, STL are in-play here for various reasons of connection to Stanzi, with STL just being the raw need.

 

– R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” hereThe Machine via FFM

 **If you enjoy the free content on Fantasy Football Metrics.com please consider making your next Amazon purchase through our website/link partnership with Amazon. You’re going to buy something at Amazon anyway, there is no extra charge — help give us a little love! Feel free to save/bookmark this link in your favorites and you will have it for all future Amazon purchases. Thanks for your consideration! Link – Amazon.com: Online Shopping for Electronics, Apparel, Computers, Books, DVDs & more **

 

 

2014 Preseason Week-4 Dynasty-Fantasy Recap: Colts vs. Bengals (8/28/2014)

Twitter @FFMetrics

I expected this to be boring Week-4 contest, featuring Jeremy Hill getting every touch there was, and thus sending football analysts cackling their head’s off, but there is actually some deeper roster intrigue to watch the next 24-48 hours…and it’s all Colts based. Bigger, to me, than anyone would think. PLUS Seattle already picked the Colts’ pocket of a prospect ahead of the cutdown. I’m going to save all that drama for the end.

 –  Jeremy Hill (20 carries for 99 yards, 6 rec. for 70 yards on 6 targets) was given the ball on every play in this game it seemed. If you like a young BenJarvus Green-Ellis, then there you go…

Hill runs up the middle like every average, physically big RB…he goes as far as the pile will take him. Against the early Colts defense, he ran for 0-5 yards per run. When the defense watered down even more as the game wore on, he caught some screen passes virtually  undefended.

He will get all the love from this game. His ADP will jump, and a true split between he and Gio Bernard (DNP) becomes more believable. I think both runners are flawed…and we feel the Cincy run game is in for a rude awakening in 2014.

 – Across the field, if anyone bothered to notice, was a true, future star NFL RB. Zurlon Tipton (7 carries for 29 yards, 1 rec. for 15 yards on 1 target) entered the game, and instantly looked better than any RB in this game. I have NO doubt that Zipton will be a good-great starting RB in the NFL; only injury can stop him. The UDFA RB out of Central Michigan forced the Colts to keep four RBs. The question is, how long before they realize Tipton is their best non-Trent runner? If I know the NFL…it will be a while…years perhaps.

**See the 2014 Dynasty Rookie Draft, like never before with our Moneyball-style scouting reports and rankings CFM website **

 

 – I’m not sure why the Colts made a move for David Fluellen (17 carries for 53 yards, 2 rec. for 6 yards on 2 targets) in a trade with Philly a week ago. Fluellen is also a solid RB prospect, but he is no Tipton…and the Colts agreed, cutting Fluellen this weekend. Keep an eye out for Fluellen’s next landing spot.

 – One of the better NT prospects in the 2014 NFL Draft was Colts DT Zach Kerr (4 tackles, 2 solo). He has been impressive all preseason, and earned a spot on the roster. He’s been very active all preseason–one to IDP-watch if he grabs a starting job at some point.

 – Cincy DE Margus Hunt (4 tackles, 3 sacks, 4 TFLs) is a physical freak…he is also the most gentle sack-force in the NFL. He has a size-speed-agility-reach combo like none other, and he will snatch some sacks because of his long arms, but he brings a QB down like he’s putting a sleeping baby down in its crib. It has been my fear on him from watching his college tape…he could be a Hall of Famer on paper, but he plays like a Paper Tiger.

**Our ever-evolving, ever-updating to kick-off, Moneyball scouted, 2014 Fantasy Football e-Draft Guide and Cheat Sheets are available now. FFM website **

 

OK, Colts fans… two names for you to watch, that if any savvy NFL GM out there is reading this, they should be lining up a roster to grab at least one right now. Colts fans, you should light a candle to make sure these guys quietly slip onto your practice squad.

Before we get to those two, the Colts already lost an interesting player: CB Marcus Burley (7 tackles, 3 solo)…he was traded to Seattle after the game. I watched this game, and thought Burley was definitely going to make the team. He jumped off the game film. Burley has ‘A’ measurables, but a mixed bag of performance in college for Delaware. He looked much better this preseason, and Seattle grabbed him. It could be a pocket-picking.

Burley is a CB, but played more like a Safety…in on a lot of tackles, and making nice hits. This could be kinda interesting for Seattle to develop. Not a star, per se, but useful. 

There are two players the Colts have dangled in waivers, that they may live to regret doing so…

2014 6th-round draft pick ILB Andrew Jackson (6 tackles, 6 solo) finally got a chance to play (was nursing injuries) later in this game, and was his usual tackle-machine, as our computer scouting models picked up on from his time at Western Kentucky. The Colts cut him this weekend. I assume they are hoping to duck him away on the practice squad…and likely will get away with it because Jackson was so limited this preseason with nagging injuries. Some NFL defense devoid of LB talent should be making a claim on him…like Dallas or somebody. This is a free useful NFL player with an upside.

He’s a little dicey off the field, but when has that ever stopped the NFL?

An even bigger risk-reward: Erik Swoope (1 rec. for 9 yards on 1 target) was released. If any NFL organization has anybody really paying attention to NFL personnel on other teams, and has a roster space to sit on, and has the need for a developmental, high-upside TE…they should grab him immediately. All I know is this:

1) A 6’4.6″ tall, basketball-to-football convert project (Miami, FLA), which already makes my heart flutter.

2) I only saw him make two catches (on three targets) this preseason. That was all I needed to see…but I want to see more.

3) Part of the more I already saw: Close-up on Swoope after his catch in this game, and he may have the largest, most muscular arms of any TE in the NFL. In preseason Week-3, he caught a simple, short pass, was blasted from behind by a hard-hitting Safety (Vinnie Sunseri/NO), and Swoope barely budged…but the initial tackler went flying.

If you are rebuilding your franchise, or are just a savvy team that can take these kind of chances…he is one to bring in for a look to see all that is there (or not). If Swoope goes unclaimed, multiple personnel departments should be fired for not bringing it to anyone’s attention. Someone has to have room for this? You better hope not Indy fans.

 

– R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” hereThe Machine via FFM

 **If you enjoy the free content on Fantasy Football Metrics.com please consider making your next Amazon purchase through our website/link partnership with Amazon. You’re going to buy something at Amazon anyway, there is no extra charge — help give us a little love! Feel free to save/bookmark this link in your favorites and you will have it for all future Amazon purchases. Thanks for your consideration! Link – Amazon.com: Online Shopping for Electronics, Apparel, Computers, Books, DVDs & more **

 

2014 Fantasy Football Draft Guide Update SAT 8/30/14 10pm ET

Players added since last update:  Kyle Juszczyk, Cody Parkey

Players with commentary ‘updates’: none

Projection changes based on latest ‘Intell’ (noted with ‘+’ or ‘–’ on the Draft Guide):  Odell Beckham Jr., Gio Bernard, Bryce Brown, Travis Coons, Orleans Darkwa, Kris Durham, Alex Henery, Jeremy Hill, E.J. Manuel, Vance McDonald, Christine Micheal, Knowshon Moreno, Da’Rick Rogers, Cairo Santos, Antone Smith, Sammy Watkins, Albert Wilson

 

TO GET THE LATEST DRAFT GUIDE DATA: REFRESH or RELOAD (right click, and select the option) your open web page with Draft Guide or Cheat Sheet showing. *Worst case: close out of your open web page, and re-click original draft guide link to be auto-connected with the latest. Date on bottom of any page should show: 8/30/14.

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Fantasy Pro’s ‘Speed’ Mock Draft Tool : Link to FP’s Quick Mock vs. National Experts

**Our ever-evolving, ever-updating to kick-off, Moneyball scouted, 2014 Fantasy Football e-Draft Guide and Cheat Sheets are on sale now. Direct link:  FFM 2014 Draft**

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NEW: Top-24 PPR and non-PPR player draft rankings for Draft Guide Users! We added a top-24 overall (by popular demand, as much as I tried to not do it!) based on our computer model’s valuation of a 12-team, 4 pts per pass TD, 1QB-2RB-2WR-1TE, generic league.

As soon as you change a variable from our valuation model (more/less teams, different starting lineup requirements, scoring variables), the whole ‘rank’ model changes…so use for ‘entertainment purposes only’. That’s why I am always hesitant to recommend a top-10 generic guidance…so many variables change the landscape.  There are two reports (non and PPR) with this special list/rank…and they are with the ‘Washington’ team-defense projections (last team in alphabetical, so we used them)…you’ll see it. IF you choose the “by Team Name…” option from the main draft guide page…go to the last/next to last pages and you’ll see them with the Washington players with obvious titles “Top-24…”)

It’s not where we are saying you should draft them, but rather where we think the most FF-economic valuable players are…and you’ll be semi-shocked by some of the names/positions we are valuing higher this year (so far).

 **If you enjoy the free content on Fantasy Football Metrics.com please consider making your next Amazon purchase through our website/link partnership with Amazon. You’re going to buy something at Amazon anyway, there is no extra charge — help give us a little love! Feel free to save/bookmark this link in your favorites and you will have it for all future Amazon purchases. Thanks for your consideration! Link – Amazon.com: Online Shopping for Electronics, Apparel, Computers, Books, DVDs & more **

 

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