Fantasy Football Metrics

2015 Fantasy Football Draft Guide Update TUE 7/28/15 (11:45 pm ET)

tags — 2015 Fantasy Football Draft guide, dynasty rookie draft, ADP, PPR, rankings, sleepers

 

Players added since last update:  Mario Alford, Tyler Kroft, Gus Johnson, Denarius Moore, John Peters, Tevin Reese, Daniel Thomas

Players with commentary ‘updates’ from breaking news:  Top-25 Draft Valuation Report Updated 7/28  

Projection changes based on latest news and info (noted with ‘+’ or ‘–‘ on the Draft Guide):  Le’Veon Bell, Victor Cruz, Rob Gronkowski, Graham Gano, Eli Manning, St. Louis Rams DST, DeAngelo Williams

 

Current Draft Guide Player Count (projected, and with commentary): 575 players (on our way to 600+ players projected with scouting commentary on each before opening-day)

 

TO GET THE LATEST DRAFT GUIDE DATA: REFRESH or RELOAD (right click, and select the refresh or reload…or hit F5/update option) your open web page with Draft Guide or Cheat Sheet showing.

*Worst case: close out of your open web page, and re-click original draft guide link to be auto-connected with the latest. Date on bottom of any page should show: 7/28/15.

 

Any Draft Guide Technical Issues: Email us at customersupport@fantasyfootballmetrics.com

=======================================

 

*The Overall top-24 PPR and non-PPR player rankings/valuations (and a few thousand words of commentary) for the FF-Draft are loaded on a new report for 2015.

Either re-click your original link, or refresh that home page/menu options page–the new report will be the first option above the different ways you can view the draft guide reports.*

 

 

**Our ever-evolving, ever-updating to opening-day, Moneyball scouted, 2015 Fantasy Football e-Draft Guide and Cheat Sheets are available now. Direct link: Draft Guide 2015 options **

 

2015 REWIND: 2014 Preseason Week-1 Dynasty-Fantasy Recap: DEN vs. SEA

Twitter @FFMetrics

tags — 2015 Dynasty-Fantasy Scouting Report, Montee Ball, Ronnie Hillman, C.J. Anderson, 2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft, Christine Michael, Brock Osweiler, Juwan Thompson, Kapri Bibbs, Fantasy Football Draft, Marshawn Lynch, PPR, ADP

 

*The sub-title of this report: Remember, when Christine Michael was ‘a thing’ in preseason 2014, because Marshawn Lynch might retire/quit/walk? Good times…

 

I was smitten with this idea the other day, and decided to go through with it for the next few days or so…before the football news really starts going in a few weeks.

I was thinking about how we all get way too excited when we first get football news, and that includes me. I got to thinking that I should go back and re-read all the early preseason game recaps I did, and see what massive mistakes or pure genius I was onto upon witnessing the first preseason games.

So, I am going back through each Week-1 preseason game recap from 2014, and critiquing myself on the spot (my 2015 notes are in indented/block quotes). Below is an original, unfiltered, untouched up to avoid my embarrassment, Fantasy-Dynasty game recap from Week-1 of the preseason with my random comments from re-reading them today.

**Our ever-evolving, ever-updating to opening-day, Moneyball scouted, 2015 Fantasy Football e-Draft Guide and Cheat Sheets are available now. Direct link: Draft Guide 2015 options **

 

Note – I did not go back and re-watch these games before critiquing myself a year later. I’m just reading and reacting to what I wrote after what I saw last year. I hate re-reading my own stuff, so this will be the first time seeing it since I wrote it. Actually, it’s kinda like photo album or yearbook review. You know, where you look back and think, “What was I thinking when I wore that?

These 2014 preseason games ‘Rewinds’ will be posting in random order. Here we go…

 

======================

 

No 3,000+ word recap/manifesto here, as this was a truly dull game from a Fantasy Football scouting perspective…

 — I have one, and only one, real thing to convey here: Christine Michael (7 carries for 16 yards and 1 TD, 3 rec. for 12 yards on 3 targets) has the potential to be a superstar, and I do not say that lightly. I lot of people say a lot of players ‘could be great’, and it is a cheap compliment…I usually tell you how terrible they all really are. Not here.

Just because I proclaim this, doesn’t mean we all run off a cliff head-first trying to trade for him. As we know from our Antone Smith saga of the past 0-4 years, the most talented guy doesn’t always get the shot. Marshawn Lynch (DNP) haphazardly grabbed Seattle management by the balls for fun, and they coughed up an extra million or so…to an already well paid RB. You don’t do that of you are preparing for a RB coup d’état on your loaded RB depth chart. You do it because you’re scared of life without the words ‘beast mode’ being uttered nine million times. This is Marshawn Lynch’s backfield, and don’t you forget it.

If you want to acquire Christine Michael at a discount for Dynasty, wait until closer to the season start, or after Weeks 1-2 when he sees 3-4-5 touches, and starts to be forgotten about again.

Make no mistake. Once Michael is given that job, whether via injury or Lynch released next season…he may never give it back for years. 220+ pound humans should not have the first step/burst, and agility that Christine Michael does. He is a freak. Mark this down, and note the date, for court appearances later. I want Michael to be called/nicknamed ‘The Freak’, and thus I want all rights to merchandise that contains my coined phrase, that I just thought of, ‘Freak Mode’. Every time Michael touches the ball, I want it said…and to be paid. Every announcer and fan who says my patent pending ‘phrase that pays’, you must toss me a shiny quarter.

No doubt, some of your capitalistic wheels are spinning…contact me, and I’ll have my people talk to your people. A.K.A. you and I will chat. You’re a horrible human if you steal my idea without fair compensation, and I curse your business venture…

I know many lawyers follow FFM. Get ready for some pro bono work!

Where was I? Oh, yeah: Christine Michael is like a bulked up LeSean McCoy. He changes gears, and accelerates effortlessly. Physically, athletically…Michael is an A++. What we don’t know, and where he has had issues, is how he’ll hold up off the field. His off-field history has not been damning, but has been dicey.

Well, we all know now that the Christine Michael ‘thing’ in 2014 was all just a hoax…again (seems like he does this to people every preseason). The Michael-Lynch debate was white hot almost a year ago to the day. Lynch was falling in ADP status pre-preseason training camps, and Michael was blazing up the charts. None of it was true…and my dreams of being a millionaire via suing someone for stealing my ‘Freak Mode‘ idea remains on hold.

‘You’re welcome’ to those I counseled into selling Michael into this hype in Dynasty the 1st-half of calendar 2014. I’m in the mindset today, as I was back in 2014–that Michael is ‘special’, but he may never see the field with Seattle…but if he does, people are going to go insane. The price is way down in Dynasty–you should be a cheap investor if you can afford to burn the roster spot. 

 

**Read our full 1,000+ word scouting report on Christine Michael, a.k.a “Freak Mode’ from 2013, and see the 2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft, like never before with our Moneyball-style scouting reports and rankings Go to www.collegefootballmetrics.com **

 

 

Coming off a Super Bowl victory, and being able to wear that cloak of invincibility around, the moment Marshawn Lynch held out…I would have jammed that up his arse, and did a Billy Beane, and traded him at the market peak…ditching his bigger contract, calling a bluff on his faux-retirement desires, redeploying the loot, and thus Bledsoe-ing him with Brady (a.k.a. Michael).

For you vanilla football announcers, that’s the true definition of label you push, “They really like this kid.” When they actually do something proactive about it, then I’ll believe they really “like this kid.” I’m looking forward to more weeks of Pete Carroll, acting like a ‘concerned’ Bill Clinton (in a tired southern-drawl, thumb inside of fist pointing at you)…”We got to figure out how to get Christine the ball more.” It’s a conundrum. Just ask Mike Smith about Antone Smith. It’s a virtual Rubik’s Cube.

Don’t laugh past that paragraph too quickly. Let it sink in. If Pete Carroll really was grooming Christine Michael…if he really believed, he would get him more meaningful touches in the regular-season. To be fair, Carroll did give him 34 carries last season…and Michael posted 5.2 yards per carry. Too small a sample to get jacked over, and it was pushed by one big run (a 45-yarder).

All you can project on Michael is a deep long-shot for FF-2015, as well as 2016+.  Do you think some team going to back up a Brink’s truck in free agency for a guy who never really played for Seattle? You think he goes somewhere else in 2016 to fully start, and not ‘time share’ or ‘backup’?

He’s so gifted, all you can do is hold and pray in Dynasty.

 

 

 — Broncos UDFA RB Juwan Thompson (6 carries for 59 yards, and another 20+ yard run called back) was the MVP of this game. His great night comes down to one of two scouting judgments, and I am probably in the #2 camp all alone…along with all the Seattle fans who watched…hoping I’m right about this. It’s either:

1) Thompson is a great RB, and he will challenge Montee Ball (DNP) for the starter’s spot, because he ran unscathed all over the place in this game.

2) Seattle’s 2nd and 3rd-string took the night off of playing run defense, and Thompson was lucky enough to have huge gaping holes…almost like he had a force field around him that you couldn’t get within 5-yards of him until he gained his first 7-yards on the play. It was weird…or Seattle is in big-time trouble in 2014. OR Juwan Thompson is a future superstar…pick your poison.

The reason I’m with the #2 option is because fellow rookie UDFA Kapri Bibbs (4 carries for 18 yards and 1 TD, 1 target) entered after Thompson, and achieved much of the same thing.

Two things about Bibbs:

(1) He scored 31 rushing TDs in his D1 college debut last season. Whereas Thompson scored ONE rushing TD in 11 games last season for Duke, and two rushing TDs in his last 24 games played.

(2) Bibbs was moving with purpose…he showed great vision. Thompson was a wind-up toy that ran straight through the gigantic hole until his body reached other bodies. Bibbs had something extra going on. I was impressed.

Most will walk away from this game with “The Broncos really like this Juwan Thompson kid.” I kinda left liking the ‘Bibbs kid’. It’s all meaningless for FF-2014, unless injury hits above on the depth chart. I will say this: Thompson will make this team, and Bibbs may bump C.J. Anderson (1 carry for 5 yards, 2 rec. for 9 yards on 3 targets) off it as well. Most likely, Bibbs goes to the practice squad…watch to see if anyone poaches him. I need to see more of Bibbs, but I liked this first glimpse. Check out what I saw on him in college on CFM. I’m not predicting stardom, I’m just noting for when ever he is forced to start due to someone else’s injury between now and 2016.

Well, Juwan Thompson made the team and Kapri Bibbs went to the practice squad. Thompson actually was getting pushed ahead of C.J. Anderson mid-2014 after Montee and Hillman went down. CJA was a 4th-option for Denver who struck gold, and is now the hottest thing in Fantasy. People should be highly skeptical Anderson will navigate this landmine RB depth chart unscathed this year. 

Thompson won’t push him because he’s one dimensional…there’s not much there with him for Dynasty-Fantasy. Bibbs will be better served on another team to ever get a chance. Even then, he probably doesn’t have the juice to become a consistent starter-star in the NFL.

 

Ronnie Hillman (6 carries for 15 yards and 1 TD, 1 rec. for 5 yards on 1 target) is an odd situation.

A year ago, Hillman was the apple of many Fantasy owner’s eye. Today, people are trying to outguess who will take over for Atlanta if Steven Jackson is out of action much longer. Others are trying to curse Gore-Tate-Lynch into injuries because they want to love Hyde-West-Michael…meanwhile, a young up & down RB has an appendectomy surgery (Montee), forcing him to miss a critical preseason in his early development…and we’re all ‘Ronnie Hillman sucks‘. You didn’t think that a year ago. He’s talented. He just hit a bad fumble stretch last year…which is worth being FF-tentative about. However, you always forgave David Wilson, but you never let Hillman breathe again from his trouble.

It’s possible Ronnie Hillman is your Week-1 starter for Denver…and what if he goes nuts on opening-day? Montee Ball has the gravitas of auto-starter already…should he? Maybe he does. I’m just sayin’…

Well, Montee Ball got hurt again, and torched many Fantasy GMs to start 2014. Denver turned to Ronnie Hillman to save the day, and he was fantastic for weeks–until he got hurt. Hillman mattered after all.

If I were an NFL GM, and I had to pick one Denver RB for free to start a do or die game for me, based on my experience watching/scouting all of the options from college to the pros–I take Ronnie Hillman. Now, Montee Ball is fine enough talent. CJA is fine. Bibbs is fine. No slam to those guys, and it’s not like Hillman is on some other planet of talent comparatively, but it’s just I think Hillman has worked the best as a pro–after what I saw last season. 

 

 — Brock Osweiler (6-12 for 85 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) looked fine at times in his first 2014 outing. He’s solid. Still not sure he has a gear to ‘great’, but he’s serviceable. He’ll be three years in the NFL after this 2014 campaign, with 2015 as his soon to enter free agent year. It will be interesting to see what Denver does with him. I’m not sure they’ll have the money available to hold on to him if Peyton’s still playing. I wonder if they really want to that badly?

Osweiler is entering the Ryan Mallett-zone. A QB people liked, but weren’t really sure on. A guy who gets some preferential benefit of the doubt because he backed up a legend, so of course he isn’t playing…but could it be that the legend is holding back some secret superstar waiting to be discovered? 

Our scouting models were mostly against Ryan Mallett, but he did show some mild hope. Watching him over several preseasons–it was confirmed: He’s doesn’t have ‘it’.

We were a little ‘higher’ on Osweiler, but were also betting against coming out of Arizona State (came out too soon). Watching him in NFL preseasons…not great. He’s been better than Mallett, but I’ve not seen anything to get excited about. Guys like (random examples) Ryan Nassib, Nick Foles (when he was a backup no one cared about)…these are guys who jumped off the screen working in their NFL preseasons. Mallett and Osweiler, I’ve never been moved by either.

Osweiler is a free agent after this year, so I suspect some team will make a cheap move after him–like with Ryan Mallett. The outlook for Denver’s offensive weapons for FF-purposes after Peyton leaves is going to be frightening.

 

==========================

 

We chose Amazon as our main advertising partner years ago, and they have been spectacular to work with. We chose them because it doesn’t cost you anything, and everyone should be saving time, money, and shipping costs buying stuff from Amazon.

It is a huge help for us if you click through the banner or link below before you shop on Amazon. Your shopping experience is the same, and prices do not change—we just get credit from Amazon on your normal activity. Feel free to click, and then save the webpage as a favorite on your computer so we’re with you forever!! OR copy and paste, and email to people who are Amazon shoppers in your circle—and don’t compete with you in Fantasy Football!! Thank you!

 


Link: FFM link to Amazon

 

 

Over or Under: The Steelers Score 30.0+ PPG in 2015?

Twitter @FFMetrics

tags — 2015 Dynasty-Fantasy Scouting Report, Le’Veon Bell, DeAngelo Williams, Ben Roethlisberger, 2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft, Antonio Brown, Fantasy Football Draft, PPR, ADP

 

Yesterday, kinda kicked off the 2015 NFL season as teams reported to training camps. With the football machine starting to roll, it also means the beginning of 24-7 football talk on the various sports media outlets. As part of ‘my job’, I have to ‘check in’ on what ‘they’ are saying, so I know how to play ‘them’ for Fantasy Football. ESPN is dying a slow death, but they are still the tail that wags the FF-dog for most football media outlets, and thus that trickles down to most Fantasy-Dynasty players.

I was skimming through one of ESPN’s multiple football shows midday, and realized that the Pittsburgh Steelers were chosen to be the ‘topic of the day’.

Because you’ll be fired if you don’t speak football positives, the panel was glowing about how great the Steelers offense was. The main reason they were chirping about their offense came from multiple Steelers’ players yammering about wanting to average 30+ points per game this year in their training camp press conferences. That’s cool and all for the players to target that as a goal, but the analysis by ESPN on it…good hell. People actually watch this station on purpose?

Of course, every analyst on the panel agreed the Steelers COULD do it (30+ PPG). The former players turned analysts on the panel said they WOULD do it. One of the talking heads said the Steelers could do it because they players were expressing to him a desire to be ‘explosive’ this season…that they were really working on that this preseason. How does one work on being ‘explosive’? If ‘explosive’ can be targeted…why weren’t they targeting this before? It just dawned on them to do be ‘explosive’ in 2015? They probably could have used ‘explosive’ the past season too, but at least they are onto it now…

Two NFL teams scored over 30.0 PPG last season—the teams with Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning. The year before—just Peyton Manning. The year before that, Peyton and Tom Brady. It’s not easy to achieve, and you better have an all-time QB and great offensive coaching minds…and an easy schedule/division, etc.

Pittsburgh has a great QB, but Todd Haley and Mike Tomlin as great offensive minds? Come on.

 

**Our ever-evolving, ever-updating to opening-day, Moneyball scouted, 2015 Fantasy Football e-Draft Guide and Cheat Sheets are available now. Direct link: Draft Guide 2015 options **

 

The Steelers scored 27.3 PPG in 2014—7th best in the league. They had those two games mid-2014 where Big Ben threw for six TDs in each game, and they scored a whopping 94 points total. Take that two-game ‘spike’ away, and the ‘normal’ Steelers averaged 24.5 PPG in their other 14 games…which was about middle of the NFL pack.

After the two game explosion, the Steelers averaged 26.9 PPG the rest of the season. The Steelers offense had a nice finish, but there was nothing that showed a likely upside for them pushing 30.0+ per game this season.

Last season, the Steelers were ‘blessed’ on their schedule with the NFC South..a.k.a the worst defensive division in football (three of the top-10 worst defenses in football, and Carolina was #20 overall). They also drew the AFC South..a.k.a. the worst division in football. The Steelers had a fantastic schedule in 2014, plus those two games where they popped 47.0 PPG–all that advantage, and they still didn’t get close to 30.0 PPG for the year.

In 2015, the schedule is exponentially tougher. This year they get the AFC West, a much more solid defensive division. Oh, and they drew the NFC West…a.k.a the best defensive division in all of football. The face Seattle and Kansas City on the road—the two toughest road games in the NFL (arguably).

The Steelers have 12 games total with defenses from 2014 that were ranked in the top-12 last season.

How exactly are the Steelers likely to average 30+ PPG in 2015 given how difficult it is to achieve in general, and now with a killer schedule of defenses to face?

Oh, and their stud RB is out for three games on suspension to start this year. Never fear, DeAngelo Williams is here…

The Steelers have almost no shot at 30.0+ PPG in 2015. Heck, they might be lucky to have a winning record given the complex schedule they have.

ESPN football analysts have taken ‘the over’ on the Pittsburgh Steelers scoring 30.0+ points per game. I’ll take ‘the under’, for sure.

All that I just railed on—that’s why you have to be cautious on Big Ben, Le’Veon Bell, and Antonio Brown for Fantasy Football 2015. The surrounding circumstances in 2014 were a gift…a FF-boost. They have the opposite in 2015. Beware.

 

==========================

 

We chose Amazon as our main advertising partner years ago, and they have been spectacular to work with. We chose them because it doesn’t cost you anything, and everyone should be saving time, money, and shipping costs buying stuff from Amazon.

It is a huge help for us if you click through the banner or link below before you shop on Amazon. Your shopping experience is the same, and prices do not change—we just get credit from Amazon on your normal activity. Feel free to click, and then save the webpage as a favorite on your computer so we’re with you forever!! OR copy and paste, and email to people who are Amazon shoppers in your circle—and don’t compete with you in Fantasy Football!! Thank you!

 


Link: FFM link to Amazon

 

 

Wednesday ‘Rewind’ Player Report: Vote Now!

We’re down to just a couple more ‘Rewinds’ for the preseason, because once the preseason games hit…my life is over for 4.5+ months. Although, this ‘Rewind’ concept has gone so well that we are planning to do them intra-season each week…after a few weeks of 2015 games hit that we have enough to review–to go back through some players snap-by-snap to see what we might all have missed. But as for the long form “Rewinds’ looking back at a player’s 2014–just a few more will publish this year. The next one on Wednesday.

I have a few players left on my list from various recommendations, but I am opening it up to your vote. I’m not even providing names of ones I have started or want to do. You just tell me who you are interested in, and the player with the most votes wins–and I’ll start on it tonight for a report out on Wednesday. 

Email me your player ‘Rewind’ vote (before 5pm ET) to: rc@fantasyfootballmetrics.com

 

2015 Fantasy Football Draft Guide Update MON 7/27/15 (10:45 pm ET)

tags — 2015 Fantasy Football Draft guide, dynasty rookie draft, ADP, PPR, rankings, sleepers

 

Players added since last update:  Travis Benjamin, Josh Lenz, Luke Lundy, Randall Telfer, Brandon Wegher, Shane Wynn

Players with commentary ‘updates’ from breaking news:  Top-25 Draft Valuation Report Updated 7/27  

Projection changes based on latest news and info (noted with ‘+’ or ‘–‘ on the Draft Guide):  Odell Beckham Jr., Teddy Bridgewater, Cordarrelle Patterson

 

Current Draft Guide Player Count (projected, and with commentary): 568 players (on our way to 600+ players projected with scouting commentary on each before opening-day)

 

TO GET THE LATEST DRAFT GUIDE DATA: REFRESH or RELOAD (right click, and select the refresh or reload…or hit F5/update option) your open web page with Draft Guide or Cheat Sheet showing.

*Worst case: close out of your open web page, and re-click original draft guide link to be auto-connected with the latest. Date on bottom of any page should show: 7/27/15.

 

Any Draft Guide Technical Issues: Email us at customersupport@fantasyfootballmetrics.com

=======================================

 

*The Overall top-24 PPR and non-PPR player rankings/valuations (and a few thousand words of commentary) for the FF-Draft are loaded on a new report for 2015.

Either re-click your original link, or refresh that home page/menu options page–the new report will be the first option above the different ways you can view the draft guide reports.*

 

 

**Our ever-evolving, ever-updating to opening-day, Moneyball scouted, 2015 Fantasy Football e-Draft Guide and Cheat Sheets are available now. Direct link: Draft Guide 2015 options **

 

2014 Rewind Dynasty/Fantasy 2015 Study: WR Odell Beckham Jr.

tags — Odell Beckham Jr., 2015 Dynasty-Fantasy Scouting Report, Eli Manning, Cordarrelle Patterson, 2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft, Jarvis Landry, Fantasy Football Draft, PPR, ADP

 

In this article series, we look back at an individual player from 2014, and try to re-watch every play they were involved in. Using this isolation with a fresh perspective, I am re-charting plays, making notes, and trying to get a feel for if we are missing or confirming a potential Fantasy star in the making…or we try to confirm whether our fading memories, hype, and surface numbers from last season are leading to a twisted perception? 

Today’s study: WR Odell Beckham Jr., NY Giants

 

I started writing this report, and the opening turned into a semi-aimless, sometimes captivating, long-winded discussion of scouting dilemmas in general. I’m going to cut all that out, and try to get right into the analysis. So bear with this as it was a late edit…

This entire study fascinated me because Odell Beckham Jr. was sensational in 2014, but we thought he would only be ‘good’ in the NFL based on our scouting models. We completely feared that his flimsy college performance was hiding some kind of off-field issue. When he had hamstring troubles in the 2014 preseason, and saw the coaches got mad at him–we thought his underwhelming college performance was really a sign that OBJ might be ‘all athlete’, without the dedication to star in the NFL. We thought he would be good, but probably not great. That didn’t prove correct, at all.  

I have to start this ‘Rewind’ report by rewinding all the way back to his time at LSU, and then rolling forward into 2014. So here we go…

 

Odell Beckham Jr. had one of the most boring college careers (as a WR), statistically, that you’ll find for a guy who went on to splash in the NFL. Not just ‘splash’, but A-bomb cannonball’d it. You don’t believe that he had a mediocre college performance? Read this clip from my Odell Beckham Jr. scouting report for College Football Metrics.com in 2014, pre-draft. It’s a lot of numbers thrown your way, but take a second-pass on it if you need to. Look at these numbers, and consider that OBJ was surreal in output for the Giants, but posted the following, unimpressive, scary output numbers at LSU.

From our 2014 pre-draft scouting report:

 

Check this out…

4.8 receptions, 93.1 rec. yards, 0.66 TDs per game = 2013 Odell Beckham Jr. in 12 games

You see that stat line above. That’s all his game output for 2013. It equates to 57 catches for 1,117 yards and 8 TDs, which is a pretty solid year, right? Check out this output line…

4.6 receptions, 77.9 rec. yards, 0.22 TDs per game = 2013 Odell Beckham Jr. in 9 SPECIFIC games

 

The above data is from nine specific 2013 games. Where did the other three games go? I took them out because they were against woefully overmatched Furman, UAB, and Kent State. You know what Beckham Jr. did in those three games?

5.3 receptions, 138.7 rec. yards, 2.00 TDs per game = 2013 Odell Beckham Jr. vs. Furman, UAB, Kent State

You know what happens when Beckham Jr. played Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, Florida, and Texas A&M…a.k.a. the more NFL-like talented programs he faced in 2013?

4.2 receptions, 63.2 rec. yards, 0.00 TDs per game = 2013 Odell Beckham Jr. vs. Ala, Aub, Ga, Fla, Texas A&M

Statistically speaking, Odell Beckham Jr. was a mediocre SEC WR when you strip away his performance against lower-level opponents.

 

In the past two seasons, 26 games, Beckham Jr. has scored 12 TDs. Ten of them as a WR, and two on punt returns. Nine of his 12 TDs the past two seasons have come against: Towson, North Texas, Furman, UAB, and Kent State. His other three TDs came against Ole Miss and Mississippi State.

Beckham Jr. has posted seven 100+ yard receiving games in his college career. Four of them came against out of conference teams: Towson, Furman, UAB, TCU.

In his career, Beckham Jr. has one career TD against a nine win or greater team (West Virginia 2011).

In 23 career SEC games, Beckham Jr. has three 100+ yard games…the rest of his SEC games were under 76-yards receiving. In those 23 career SEC games, he has just three receiving TDs.

For the entire 2012 season, Beckham Jr. scored two receiving TDs…none of them against a D1 opponent.

 

**See the 2015 NFL Draft and 2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft, like never before with our Moneyball-style scouting reports and rankings. Go to www.collegefootballmetrics.com **

 

 

In my scouting formulas as gifted as a particular WR might be athletically, if they were unimpressive (in a future NFL star sense) in college—at a big-time school (LSU) with an NFL-quality QB (at least enough to get drafted and play—Zach Mettenberger), then they aren’t going to walk into the NFL and dominate.

Odell Beckham Jr. did just that…he dominated.

…and made me feel like a scouting fool.

We projected OBJ as a ‘B’ talent with question marks. In fact, here’s the last paragraph of our scouting report on OBJ:

NFL outlook: Nothing would shock me with Beckham in the NFL. In three years, if he were the best WR in this draft, I would not be so surprised. Conversely, if you told me that he became a flaming bust…I would not be taken aback by that news either. Sometimes these things are just super-curious to our computers, but hard to pick a side on. I could go either way looking at the data. The fact that there are so many doubts makes him hard to swallow in the early 2nd-round…especially in the year of the “deepest WR class ever” (supposedly).

 

 

OBJ went on to have one of the best rookie WR performances in history in 2014. How could we have missed that? Is he just a one-off aberration not to worry about, as far as my ‘analytics’ and scouting formulas? Anybody could have watched his highlight tape and proclaimed, “He’s awesome!” pre-draft. I hear that about 10-20+ different, highly-athletic WR prospects each draft season. I said it myself in my Beckham Jr. scouting report:

If you didn’t catch the elite athleticism on paper with Beckham Jr., then just turn on the tape, and it won’t take long to figure it out. His highlight reel is filled with amazing leaping catches and sweet runs through traffic for big players, whether as a WR or as a punt/kick returner. Just watching highlight reels, Beckham has to be the best WR in this draft.

 

In the end, I didn’t side with the ‘best WR in the draft’ argument. My eyes were on the right track. Our scouting ‘metrics’ pulled up short of my eyes.

Why?

If you calculate simple athletic comparisons together with his on-field performance numbers, and then watch with your eyes…you’re going to be confused on who the ‘real’ Odell Beckham Jr. is.

From my 2014 scouting report…

It’s quite possible the Odell Beckham Jr. just isn’t a very good WR. His body is an ‘A’. His highlight reel is an ‘A’. His statistical output is a ‘D’. I would have never guessed it. I was so excited thinking this really was a true sleeper. You have to, have to, have to question the performance.

 

If you relied only on athleticism metrics, you got your OBJ scouting correct…and you can claim OBJ as a scouting win. However, you probably also had about 25 other WRs that were going to be great according to the data, because there were plenty of great athletes at WR from 2014. Jeff Janis is a better prospect than OBJ then…based strictly ‘athleticism’ measurables calcs and comps.

If you relied only on your eyes for scouting, you loved OBJ…you win. Your eyes can win…and lose in scouting sometimes–usually less than 50/50 winning percentage with your eyes. It’s hard to see and capture true speed and agility differentials, etc. on tape.

If you leaned heavy on the college production of OBJ for your scouting, then you fell short on him. If you mixed his stoic SEC performance into the scouting stew, you watered down the potential greatness his athleticism data and highlight reels showed. That’s what I did.

What went wrong?

It’s simple, and complex…

How many top college WRs worked across from another stud WR like Jarvis Landry…like Beckham Jr. did?

How do you factor that Mettenberger preferred Jarvis Landry for his targets? Which now looks totally foolish by Mettenberger!

How many top WR prospects had to split targets with another great WR in college like OBJ did?

How do we factor all this into possible performance numbers?

Amari Cooper got every target it seemed for Alabama, and he put up surreal performance numbers last season—he basically shared targets with no one. Is that because Amari is a better prospect than all WRs…or because he didn’t have Jarvis Landry on the other side…or Julio Jones across from him? Was there a greater upside with OBJ at LSU, but the real, raw data cannot assume it because he was not the primary target? We haven’t even discussed that LSU primarily ran the ball as an offense? What if OBJ was the top WR for a June Jones or Mike Leach offense in college? What would his college numbers have been then…would he fully jump off the ‘analytics’ screen?

Relying too much on OBJ’s college numbers for his NFL scouting was a mistake by us, because he became Eli Manning’s top target right away. He was Eli’s Antonio Brown…if you will.

I’m not sure how to account for this type of scouting ‘issue’ (the ‘what ifs’) in the future, but were trying. Another great example of the player’s surroundings possibly confusing the performance metrics is with Chris Conley at Georgia—surreal athletic talent, mediocre college output, and worked with horrific QB play on a run-dominant team. Conley is more athletic than Odell Beckham Jr., yet we all discount Conley’s NFL prospects  because he was a college under-performer, but we all lauded Beckham Jr. for his vast athleticism despite his college under-performance. Both had underwhelming numbers in the SEC. One was beloved pre-draft, one was kind of ignored.

This scouting conundrum of ‘what if’ with a WR may be ‘unsolveable’ with pure data, but we’re trying to solve it here. It’s my quest…and it goes beyond pure ‘analytics’.

I needed to open this ‘Rewind’ study/report with the LSU/pre-draft ‘rewind’ because I sold OBJ short for the NFL, and that was the wrong call. I am quick to mock the mainstream for their errors. They beat me on this one—bad. I need to own it, and try to learn from it.

I also needed to give that long set up as a lead-in to my study because I still feel funny about endorsing Odell Beckham Jr. fully for Fantasy Football 2015+. I know he is a good-great player, I didn’t say he would bust coming out of college–I just thought he was more ‘good’ than ‘great’. Before this report, I was not sure about him for 2015 in my soul. Is he worthy of a top-12 overall Fantasy pick this year? Is he the top WR in a redraft? Something won’t let me ‘go there’ with him in my mind. I’m still holding onto that college performance, for some reason. I enter this ‘Rewind’ study as an admitted Odell Beckham Jr. doubter…if not for anything more than when society goes heavy one way, the opposite way tends to be right.

With that being said, for this ‘Rewind’ study, I just watched about every pass target Odell Beckham Jr. had in 2014, and watched sections of full games/every route he ran. Here is my top side reaction to this study: I would argue, and/or I wouldn’t fight someone who said, that Odell Beckham Jr. is the single BEST WR in the National Football League right now.

I was a skeptic before all this. He was in our top-12 overall PPR rankings for 2015 redrafts before this report/study, so we didn’t hate him. I was just a little gun-shy about him. I’m done with that. There is a clarity watching one player work through an entire season. I just sat there shaking my head the whole time watching his 2014 game film. I tried as hard as I could to find fault, to justify why 2014 might be a bit of a fluke—I couldn’t do it. I couldn’t find a weakness. He’s not just ‘lucky’, or a splash of New York rookie hysteria, or that cool one-handed catch guy, or the heavy targeted guy—he’s arguably the best WR in the NFL right now ‘guy’, and I’m going to explain why…and the Fantasy ramifications thereof.

Six-points to share from my ‘Rewind’ study…

 

1) The physical talent is undeniable.

I don’t think anyone argues this, so I am not spending much time on it. But do put into context, he is an ‘A+’ athlete…a better athlete than Antonio Brown, or T.Y. Hilton, or most any six-foot +/- tall WR you want to compare him to. He’s just built better than almost all shorter WRs on the planet. Great athleticism alone does not make anyone the best WR, but we want to make sure we use it as a foundation for all points to consider ahead.

 

 

2) Odell Beckham Jr. has the ‘swagger’ of a star.

Some great WRs enter into the league as a head down, mouth closed, ears open, workhorse stars to-be. They have a work ethic that is crazy, and it pushes them from good to great (Antonio Brown, for example, and Jordan Matthews will likely be another, Amari Cooper for sure).

Some WRs shrink from the spotlight. The stage is too big. The opponents are too scary. You can tell it in their body language. Marquess Wilson/Chicago comes to mind first (don’t ask me why). Michael Floyd/Arizona kinda goes there. Donte Moncrief/Indy may be another example.

Odell Beckham Jr. just walked into the middle of an NFL season, as a rookie, bothered by a hamstring all preseason, and just dominated the sport. He jawed back and forth with defenders. He got into shoving matches. The announcers and cameramen (and defenders) were glued to his every move.

Beckham Jr.’s game against Seattle last season, really turned around my thinking…or washed away my doubts. He went into that game, an emerging, young star…not as an ‘unknown’. The Giants coaching staff planted OBJ against Richard Sherman right off the bat. I would argue Richard Sherman may be the most valuable non-QB player in the NFL…but a rookie working in the 5th-game of his career, one who had missed all of training camp and the season start–and he just walked in to Seattle, and Richard Sherman couldn’t really cover him.

Think of how many teams have changed their offense to keep their ace WR away from Richard Sherman in 2014. Yet, Odell Beckham Jr. lined up across from him right away, and Beckham was the winner—not because he 7 catches for 108-yards in the game…I watched every snap. OBJ was winning the battle on most plays. It was stunning to watch a rookie make Richard Sherman look mortal. I didn’t really, fully catch that OBJ did this to Sherman when it happened during the regular-season.

On the very first pass-target to Beckham Jr. against Sherman. It was a simple, short slice toward the sideline, and Beckham Jr. caught it, and Sherman gave him an extra shove out of bounds—like a ‘welcome to the league, rookie’ shove. Beckham recovered from the shove, and raced back to shoved Sherman back. You might see OBJ as a ‘punk’ rookie, because he seems to be involved in this type of activity often. I kinda did last season. He might be punk-ish, but there is a benefit to that—he doesn’t back down. More on that in point #3…

 

 

3) Odell Beckham Jr. is tough.

One man’s ‘punk’ is another man’s ‘tough’.

You want to know how tough Odell Beckham Jr. is? Go watch his Week-16 game vs. St. Louis. It’s scary. The Rams were literally trying to hurt him—like ‘get out of the game’, or ‘end a career’ type stuff. There may have been a Gregg Williams’ bounty on OBJ’s head; seriously. If I were a Giants fan, I would have been pissed watching that game—I’m sure they were.

The Rams DBs were head hunting Beckham Jr., and on several occasions he was tackled late out of bounds with impunity. I mean like several yards out of bounds…like past that line of standing players and coaches on the sideline’s type of late hits. I’m not sure if I’ve ever seen anything like it, really. I remember it being rough when it happened, but isolating in on it almost a year later—it was shocking.

Beckham Jr. finished the Rams game with 8 catches for 148 yards and 2 TDs. They even had to take him out of the game in spots because OBJ was fighting back, and about to get booted…or worse he was going to get seriously hurt. Beckham Jr. never backed down. It was one of the most eye-opening, impressive performances against adversity in 2014…if not the best of 2014…if not the best in years.

 

 

4) Today’s NFL is built for Odell Beckham Jr.

3-5-10+ years ago, the NFL was ruled by Calvin Johnson and Randy Moss-type WRs; physical freaks of nature. Everyone was searching for the ‘next Calvin’ or ‘next Moss’. In response, NFL defenses searched for the ‘next Richard Sherman’…CBs who were big and physical to deal with the ‘Calvin’s’ of the world. With the rise of the spread offense in college, and the strict rules on not touching WRs…the league is now as open to thrive in for Antonio Brown as it is Calvin Johnson…may be more so for the smaller, faster guys.

Odell Beckham Jr. is the better Antonio Brown. He’s the better Percy Harvin (back when he was showing greatness). He’s the better T.Y. Hilton (minus Andrew Luck). He is a 4.3+ runner with fantastic agility and a big vertical. He is an A+ athlete for today’s NFL…virtually un-coverable by today’s rules.

I was thinking going into this 2015 season, “Well, teams will swarm Beckham Jr. with even more coverage in 2015.” I thought the same thing about Antonio Brown…for years. You can cut off Calvin, Dez, Jimmy Graham to some degree with a double-team…but the ‘little, fast guys’…I don’t know how anyone can contain them. They aren’t any more in the ‘new’ NFL…

 

 

5) Beckham Jr.’s QB loves him.

Eli Manning is not a top-tier QB in the NFL, but he’s certainly not in the bottom tier. He looked like he might be headed to the bottom during 2013, but he bounced back nicely in 2014…and Odell Beckham Jr. is a big part of that.

OBJ and Eli have a relationship going back years. They had an instant connection working together last season despite Beckham Jr. missing most all the preseason. In their last four games together, Eli targeted Beckham Jr. 15.7 per game…with a ‘low’ of 12 targets in that stretch.

It’s potentially Jay Cutler-Brandon Marshall all over again. Even if you think OBJ is a ‘A-‘ or ‘B+’ talent, he’s going to get ‘A+’ targeting with Eli. You loved Brandon Marshall with Jay Cutler for Fantasy Football in Denver and Chicago. You didn’t FF-like Brandon Marshall in his stint in Miami without Cutler. You’re not likely to be a fan of his in New York without Cutler either.

Beckham Jr. on Jacksonville or Houston or Buffalo today…half the FF-man he could be (see: Sammy Watkins). On the Giants, with a QB he already had a relationship with…it’s the perfect FF-storm.

 

 

6) Odell Beckham Jr.’s coaches love him.

This is an FF-critical statement.

You could see other talented WRs get a ‘usage’ boost for Fantasy-purposes, and becoming spectacular producers as well—like Brandin Cooks, Cordarrelle Patterson, Pierre Garcon, Antone Smith, to name a few. The teams these players I just mentioned are with—they have yet to ‘over use’/exploit their weapon to the fullest. Not the case with Odell Beckham Jr.

The Giants are designing bubble screens for OBJ. They are handing him the ball. Heck, I saw him as a shotgun QB at one point during this ‘Rewind’. The Giants have a great ‘toy’, and they are going to use it. You would think most teams would do that with their ‘electric’ players, but they really don’t. Many coaches and coordinators love their ‘balanced’ approach. They love how smart their playbook is. If I were a coach, I’d just give it to Beckham Jr. on almost every play and see what happens. I’d do the same in Minnesota with Cordarrelle Patterson. The Vikings won’t, but Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin might with OBJ…they were doing a pretty nice job of it as 2014 went on.

If the Beckham Jr. target-touch trend continues into 2015…you’re looking at the best Fantasy WR in the game.

 

You and I can only speculate on Odell Beckham Jr.’s targets and output for FF-2015. I can tell you, for me, I’m not doubting his skill any more (I am doubting Zach Mettenberger’s ability even more than I was before). I’m not just saying Beckham Jr. is ‘really good’—I’m saying single best WR in the game is on the table. If you hook top talent with a willing QB and head coach…what do you think you’ll get from it for Fantasy Football?

Where will we shift our Fantasy rankings on him now? Find out tonight in our daily 2015 Draft Guide update…

 

**Our ever-evolving, ever-updating to opening-day, Moneyball scouted, 2015 Fantasy Football e-Draft Guide and Cheat Sheets are available now. Direct link: Draft Guide 2015 options **

 

 

Monday ‘Rewind’ Study…You’re going to like this one: Odell Beckham Jr.

You will get your money’s worth here, I promise. It might be 5,000+ words before I’m done. Not sure when it will post, but likely later in the afternoon-evening before the final edits, etc. 

Buckle up for this ride…

 

2015 Fantasy Football Draft Guide Update SUN 7/26/15 (11:50 pm ET)

tags — 2015 Fantasy Football Draft guide, dynasty rookie draft, ADP, PPR, rankings, sleepers

 

Players added since last update:  Kapri Bibbs, Andre Caldwell, James Casey, Joe Don Duncan, Trevor Siemian

Players with commentary ‘updates’ from breaking news:  Top-25 Draft Valuation Report Updated 7/24 

Projection changes based on latest news and info (noted with ‘+’ or ‘–‘ on the Draft Guide):  Connor Barth, Kelvin Benjamin, Robbie Gould, Nick Novak, Tyrell Williams

Current Draft Guide Player Count (projected, and with commentary): 562 players (on our way to 600+ players projected with scouting commentary on each before opening-day)

 

TO GET THE LATEST DRAFT GUIDE DATA: REFRESH or RELOAD (right click, and select the refresh or reload…or hit F5/update option) your open web page with Draft Guide or Cheat Sheet showing.

*Worst case: close out of your open web page, and re-click original draft guide link to be auto-connected with the latest. Date on bottom of any page should show: 7/26/15.

 

Any Draft Guide Technical Issues: Email us at customersupport@fantasyfootballmetrics.com

=======================================

 

*The Overall top-24 PPR and non-PPR player rankings/valuations (and a few thousand words of commentary) for the FF-Draft are loaded on a new report for 2015.

Either re-click your original link, or refresh that home page/menu options page–the new report will be the first option above the different ways you can view the draft guide reports.*

 

 

**Our ever-evolving, ever-updating to opening-day, Moneyball scouted, 2015 Fantasy Football e-Draft Guide and Cheat Sheets are available now. Direct link: Draft Guide 2015 options **

 

2015 REWIND: 2014 Preseason Week-1 Dynasty-Fantasy Recap: TB vs. JAC

Twitter @FFMetrics

tags — 2015 Dynasty-Fantasy Scouting Report, Charles Sims, Bobby Rainey, Mike Glennon, 2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft, Jameis Winston, Doug Martin, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Fantasy Football Draft, Blake Bortles, PPR, ADP

 

*If you do nothing else here–please, scroll to the bottom to the Mike Glennon numbers comparisons…

I was smitten with this idea the other day, and decided to go through with it for the next few days or so…before the football news really starts going in a few weeks.

I was thinking about how we all get way too excited when we first get football news, and that includes me. I got to thinking that I should go back and re-read all the early preseason game recaps I did, and see what massive mistakes or pure genius I was onto upon witnessing the first preseason games.

So, I am going back through each Week-1 preseason game recap from 2014, and critiquing myself on the spot (in block quotes/italics after various sections). Below is an original, unfiltered, untouched up to avoid my embarrassment, Fantasy-Dynasty game recap from Week-1 of the preseason with my random comments from re-reading them today.

**Our ever-evolving, ever-updating to opening-day, Moneyball scouted, 2015 Fantasy Football e-Draft Guide and Cheat Sheets are available now. Direct link: Draft Guide 2015 options **

 

Note – I did not go back and re-watch these games before critiquing myself a year later. I’m just reading and reacting to what I wrote after what I saw last year. I hate re-reading my own stuff, so this will be the first time seeing it since I wrote it. Actually, it’s kinda like photo album or yearbook review. You know, where you look back and think, “What was I thinking when I wore that?

These 2014 preseason games ‘Rewinds’ will be posting in random order. Here we go…

 

======================

 

– I watched this game with the Jacksonville home announcer feed. I also watched the 30-second highlights on various TV football coverages afterwards. The football ‘machine’ is so emotionally reactive to the rookies they love so hard…that it is damaging to any fair and balanced viewing of preseason games/plays. Blake Bortles is one of ‘those guys’. Teddy Bridgewater isn’t. Johnny Manziel is. Logan Thomas is. Tom Savage isn’t. Mike Glennon wasn’t. Nor was Ricky Stanzi.

I add Glennon and Stanzi, because they too played in this game (not according to the media, but they did play. Trust me. I saw them). Glennon and Stanzi played, but their simple, completed preseason throws did not make people reach euphoria in a way that Bortles’ simple throws did. I tell you the longer I do this ‘football thing’, the more I realize football scouting is more emotionally-based than I thought. The analysts, beat writers, and coaches are more in the ‘emotional’ tank than I would have ever realized. Vibes on a player are ‘shaped’ by I don’t know what…highlights, cool uniforms, neat sounding names like ‘Storm’ or ‘Jacquizz’… I’m not sure what drives the masses into the same universal viewpoint, but these ‘vibes’ are then passed down from on high to us the fans…our stupidity is trusting it unquestionably.

Blake Bortles (7-11 for 117 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) is ‘supposed to be’ good-great. ‘They’ (the paid announcers by the team) desperately want him to be good-great. Thus, everything he does that is simply ‘OK’ is perceived/reported/seen through the lens as ‘great’. Everything he does poorly is someone else’s fault, or a simple rookie mistake.

Three impressions I had with Bortles in this game: One bad, one good, and one ‘shoulder shrug’…

Shoulder shrug: His mid-range passes were mostly one-read/no read throws to spots down the field. Credit to him, he made the throws on the money to the spots where guys were supposed to be. He was not picking apart the defense like a maestro. He just made throws into a zone. No one should expect him to be picking things apart yet. However, the reporting was how brilliant he looked in his debut…he wasn’t bad, so I guess that means he was great. He did nothing more than any other decent QB would do.

Ryan Nassib was, at times, brilliant for the NY Giants in the Hall of Fame preseason game. Technically, brilliant. Does anyone care? Is he seen/reported/salivated as the Giants savior? I mean, why question the future of Eli Manning after last season’s gem he produced? No one cares about Nassib…because Nassib’s not supposed to be good. Blake Bortles is a ‘god’ any time he does not take a crap in his pants on the field…even then it would be reported as a Pro Bowl level fecal event.

Bortles was OK in this game. Let’s not go overboard yet. It’s not fair to Bortles. 

Good: I was impressed with Bortles’ willingness to throw into the teeth of the defense…throwing into the middle of the field, and into zone coverage pockets. Young QBs don’t normally jump into that fire right away. Bortles did, and I was impressed. It’s enough to make me pause on totally tarring and feathering him yet. E.J. Manuel is never going to make it because he avoids the middle at all costs, and when he goes there it is not good. Bortles was better than that…I want to see more before jumping any bandwagons. Why? Because of the next part…

Bad:  The Bortles’ throws that went into zone pockets were mostly without any thought or read…thrown to ‘spots’ the receiver should be at, which is fine/good. However, most of these throws arrived softly, a little wobbly, and kinda hung WRs out to dry. Bortles didn’t really ‘miss’ any WR on the day. His incompletions were right to a WR, and the passes hit the WRs in their hands. However, several times the WRs had to sit in the zone, and wait for this pass to arrive, and as they tried to catch it they were popped from behind by a DB closing in from his zone spot…forcing an incomplete that looked more like a ‘drop’.

Against vanilla 2nd and 3rd team defenses, those throws hit the WR for a nice catch or the DB comes in quick and bats the ball away. In the regular season, against a 1st-team defense with a game plan, and an amped up pass rush…those passes are potential pick-sixes. It wasn’t just one or two of his throws…it was almost everyone of them. He tends to float passes downfield versus zipping them. That will not result well against a 1st-team everything defense.

There was a little promise with Bortles this day, but he is by no means ready to start day-one/today. The Jags are smart to wait. I’ll bet they wait about 1-5 weeks…

They waited three weeks before they threw Bortles-gasoline on their own season-fire.

I’ve been so right about Bortles from our January 2014, pre-draft scouting reports, to every step of the way since, that I’m not wasting any time on another victory lap. 

This re-read of my recap did make me recall memories of this opening preseason event from last season–I was laughing again because I remember the announcers were so excited, and spinning the coverage for their new ‘savior’ (Bortles)…it’s damaging because they subconsciously give hope to fans. Some of them ‘do it on purpose’–because they have to skew things positive to the team or they will never again be paid by the team to do preseason games…and thus lose a chance to get noticed by the ‘big boys’ for a promotion/’big break’.

Most ‘home’ preseason announcers have no real, broad player study across the league–they just buy into what the writers and magazines tell them, which all have the same thought on every player, and thus they all go down together–safety in numbers.

The whole football reporting and scouting system is broken, and getting more broken-er by the day. More on why that is this week when I address the Colin Cowherd firing. 

 

 

  — The reason the Jags might not ‘redshirt’ Bortles is because Chad Henne (4-7 for 30 yards) should not be a starting QB in the NFL. He was dreadful in this preseason glimpse. The team that drafted, and supported Blaine Gabbert is also the one who defies all logic by making Chad Henne ‘their guy’. As an experienced backup, cool…I guess. As your front line starter…why? What are you hoping for?

The Jags schedule is set up for certain death. The first five games: @ PHI, @WAS, IND, @SD, PIT. Henne will never survive that five game stretch…either via injury or via 2 TDs/10 INTs. The Jacksonville fans are going to riot in the streets, all 11 of them, once the team starts 0-5. They will want Bortles.

The Jags started 0-5, then 0-6, eventually 1-10…eventually 3-13. The Jacksonville ‘culture is changing’, people!!

I was wrong, Henne started two games and threw 3 TD/1 INT, but it was a ‘bad’ 3 TD/1 INT run in three games. I think he did get hurt Week-3, which began the illustrious ‘Bortles era’. 

 

 

 — When Henne fails, they may want Bortles, but they may might wind up with Ricky Stanzi (4-4 for 23 yards, 0 TD/0 INT). That’s probably my Achilles heel talking. However, one of three things is going to bring on a Stanzi shot:

(1) Henne is carted off the field somewhere between the 1st-quarter of opening-day against the Eagles or Week 2-3. The Jags are all “Bortles is redshirting.” The math then becomes Stanzi gets thrown to the wolves.

(2) Henne does not get hurt, but performs so poorly, as a response to the 11 fans rioting, but not wanting to put the golden child in for failure…Stanzi gets thrown to the wolves.

(3) Henne flops. Bortles flops. There is no other option.

All I want, and I’m sure all Ricky Stanzi wants is that chance to stare down wolves for awhile.

This game didn’t give us a ton of Stanzi clues to work with. Stanzi was 4-4 passing, and had a couple of decent 3rd-down completions, and ultimately led the game-winning drive. Most of his work involved ‘student body’ pitches to Denard Robinson…because it’s important NOT to have a developmental QB (a.k.a. the most important position in the NFL times a hundred) see more pass-attempts against live defenses.

All I will say about this Stanzi glimpse: It’s Tom Brady’s quick release and tight spiral. He had the strongest arm and quickest release of any QB in this game. He doesn’t have to throw it 70-yards in the air to have a ‘strong arm’. He just has to make 5-10-20-30 yard passes on a tight spiral, where the receiver can catch it, and release it so quickly that the DB struggle to react….like Tom Brady. E.J. Manuel, and Jake Locker, and Ryan Fitzpatrick will get ump-teen chances…Blaine Gabbert and Terrelle Pryor and Matt Flynn WERE TRADED FOR ON PURPOSE…but no one knows Ricky Stanzi even exists.

I pray to the heavens above that Stanzi is released, and the Chicago Bears pick him up to work with Marc Trestman. The alternative to that is he goes to the CFL and rips things up, and returns. In a league aching for QB talent, with everything about a franchise’s future coming down to the QB…Ricky Stanzi cannot even get an extended look in a preseason game playing for the worst team in the NFL. Hopefully, he gets a full start in Week-4 of the preseason.

Stanzi was dropped the Jags in the preseason, because the team that brings you Gabbert-Henne-Bortles knows a thing or two about QB play. Nice 3-13 season.

Stanzi was grabbed by the Texans mid-season, and he was offered to return after the season (he was a free agent), but he went to join the Giants…where he gets in line behind the very talented Ryan Nassib.

I’m done holding up Stanzi as a ‘model’ example or giving ‘sleeper’ talk for a while, not because I don’t believe in his talent…I more convinced I’m right when the Jags ‘don’t see it’, but I know what happens to young QBs not ordained early by football analysts–they get no ‘real’ NFL look, and they bounce around the league grinding, hoping eventually to get thrown to the wolves off an injury crisis. These ‘drifter’ QBs have to jump into situations having never/rarely worked with the first team, or maybe just joining their new team just a few days/weeks prior. These ‘drifter’ QBs have a thousand hurdles in front of them and maybe will get 10-20 throws in a live game to convince an NFL that is 100% convinced against them no matter what they do. The deck is stacked against these types of overlooked QBs. I hope Stanzi gets his shot someday, but it’s now a deep, deep long-shot to ever happen. 

 

 

 — Bobby Rainey (6 carries for 25 yards) is a much better runner of the ball than Charles Sims (6 carries for 13 yards, 3 rec. for 32 yards on 3 targets). Mike James (3 carries for 12 yards, 1 rec. for 20 yards) is a better receiver than Charles Sims. Jeff Demps (2 carries for 4 yards, 1 rec. for 8 yards on 2 targets) is faster, and more dangerous with the ball in his hands than all of the Bucs RBs. Doug Martin (3 carries for 6 yards, 1 rec. for 2 yards on 2 targets) is overall more gifted than any of them. The Bucs already, arguably, had the best, deepest, most diverse backfield in all of football. Honestly.

Without a real personnel ‘need’…at a position (RB) that Tampa has proven it can find talent under any rock at…with the #69 pick overall…with a bunch of other needs…they drafted ‘C’ talent Charles Sims. However, Sims is being compared to Matt Forte by his RB coach (which is an affront to all our intelligence), and a local Bucs’ writer predicted Sims as a Hall of Fame talent.

Because of hype. Because of draft status. Because of new coaches. Charles Sims is getting a push he doesn’t deserve. Everyone’s perspective is warped, but they have talked themselves into this reality. Reporters roll with it…and it rolls down to us.

I’ve scouted Sims from college. I watched his preseason debut. He is every solid/’OK’ RB in the NFL, but not ‘special’…not even close. However, he’ll be Tampa’s #2 RB this year. He’ll be taken for Fantasy Football as a handcuff to Doug Martin. Mike James and Bobby Rainey will be buried. This emotional scouting pattern really drives me nuts.

Non-emotional scouting is my Fantasy Football Achilles heel sometimes/often. I see Bobby Rainey or Mike James, but they see Charles Sims. There is little FF-value in being right about Antone Smith, while watching Jacquizz Rodgers and Devonta Freeman take all the touches in the regular season.

Charles Sims looked average-solid in this game, as I expected. I cannot believe he will be the Bucs’ #2 RB this year. 

What part didn’t I get right?

The Charles Sims hysteria was wildly overblown. Bobby Rainey was once again a better/equal-to in-season option for an NFL team. I’m not saying Rainey is an all-star, but my point in the recap last year was: He is as good as Sims, so why waste the draft pick?

As an added bonus, I was right about the talent of Antone Smith over the Falcons RB-crowd…and the Falcons were not even involved in this game.

I was also right…none of that proper RB scouting by us mattered here, because most NFL teams chase…I don’t know what thy chase. I could write 100 theories, and I still don’t understand why they are always overlooking the obvious…why they have such poor risk-reward analysis instincts. Charles Sims was a ridiculous waste of an asset (the #69 overall pick in 2014). 

At this time last year, a beat writer was equivocating Charles Sims as Matt Forte/going on to be a Hall of Famer. From the team and local media that brought you their incredibly wrong view of Charles Sims comes their next vision: Jameis Winston. Enjoy.

All you need to know about Charles Sims from 2014: Link2015 Charles Sims “2014 Rewind’ study

 

**I could have spared you from the wasted Charles Sims Dynasty Rookie Draft pick if you were a part of College Football Metrics.com last year! I can save you from Jameis Winston, and explain why in great detail right now–no one is saying what we are on Winston! See the 2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft, like never before with our Moneyball-style scouting reports and rankings. Go to www.collegefootballmetrics.com **

 

 

 — Speaking of Denard Robinson (7 carries for 36 yards and 1 TD)…he looked very good in this game. He has really added muscle nicely, and looks more like a ‘real’ RB versus a skinny QB trying to play RB in the NFL. Of all the players in this game, my mood shifted more on Robinson than any other player. Not predicting stardom, but he’s now moved into NFL-useful range versus thin-framed liability.

Over the following few weeks of preseason games from 2014, I would fully proclaim Denard Robinson one of the best transformations of the 2014 preseason and FF ‘super sleeper’–and everyone thought I was nuts at that time. He didn’t play so bad in 2014, did he? He was white hot in Fantasy for a stretch last season, before he got nicked up.

He should be starting with Toby Gerhart in a RB-duo in 2015…but T.J. Yeldon WENT TO ALABAMA! So you know he’s great. 

 

 

 — I’m not sure what anyone sees in Storm Johnson (9 carries for 21 yards, 1 target), but if they watched this game they saw what our computer scouting models foretold: A stretch to be called ‘mediocre’. Average speed, shaky agility.

Most of his runs in this game looked like what got Steven Houston cut by New England…indecisive dancing around in the backfield, but in Storm’s case: without the athletic ability to stop and start to get him out of trouble. Storm has a cool name, and was drafted, so he’ll likely make the team. He is not the Toby Gerhart ‘handcuff’.

I don’t know how many NFL blurb headlines and FF-analyst reports that predicted Storm Johnson would be the Jags starter either opening day or by mid-season. We were pushing Denard.

Storm is now on his way to getting cut this preseason. Not because of any outside or off-field issues–just that he is so mediocre/poor a prospect he doesn’t even meet the Jags standard of worthiness. 

 

 

 — Not enough targets to get super-excited, but Austin Seferian-Jenkins (2 rec. for 29 yards on 3 targets) looked like an NFL TE on his couple of catches. Just a big body, faster than the LBs, catching the ball well, and taking off for extra yards after the catch. His catches were simple, and he was wide open, so we can’t go overboard, but this was a nice start. Certainly better than Eric Ebron’s debut. That Ebron draft pick is going to go down in history as a complete and utter disaster.

I like ASJ, but I fear Jameis Winston FF-limiting him in 2015. What happens in FF-2015+ with ASJ is speculation due to the QB play, but I can confidently tell you ASJ is exponentially better than Eric Ebron–as we did in February 2014 as well. 

 

 

 — If it means anything to you on an IDP front: The best-looking player in this game (looking at it in a bubble) was Jacksonville DT Sen’Derrick Marks (4 solo tackles, 1 QB hit). He was virtually unstoppable when the 1st-teams battles each other.

…and then the mostly NFL-unnoticeable for years Sen’Derrick Marks went on to have a career year in 2015. It’s not just The Computer finding hidden talent, it’s my divinely-touched by God eyes as well. Give Him the praise, I’m am but a mere prophet…

 

 

 — One more QB note…that whole Josh McCown (2-4 for 20 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) renaissance thing…you might want to wait before you buy tickets to that show. When Lovie Smith proudly proclaimed Mike Glennon (11-19 for 140 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) as the future of the franchise in the last day or so…it was interpreted as in years, but he may have actually been talking about weeks. McCown was really, really not good in this little flash…and has has been not good for most of his length career, except for that couple of games last year.

Just think about it. In this game you were actually watching Chad Henne vs. Josh McCown, as the on-purpose starters. I cannot imagine why things haven’t been going well for those franchises?

Another plug for Mike Glennon here, but long-time readers don’t tune me out because I’m going to blow you away with a few stats in a moment…

Mike Glennon should be the clear-cut, hands-down starter for the Bucs this season. The fact that Lovie Smith had a year to study (as he was unemployed) going into his new Bucs job, and he looked right past Glennon and pissed money down a rat hole on Josh McCown should be an absolute fireable offense. Turning around a year later and getting Jameis Winston with a #1 pick is a double-down abomination. 

Why do certain NFL teams keep doing things like this over-and-over? They really do not have an eye for judging talent any better than the average fan. They are throwing darts trying to pretend they aren’t. In the end, many of them follow the same ole’ media hype and fall off a cliff. 

Mike Glennon went 1-4 overall as a starter on the world’s crappiest NFL team in 2014. He won his debut against playoff-team Pittsburgh when the Bucs were 0-fer the season at that point. He then lost four in a row, losing three of them by a TD or less. The Bucs were competitive with Glennon, who came into the starting lineup due to a McCown injury…he entered the lineup having not really working with the 1st-team leading up to it. Glennon waltzed in, ill-prepared and threw for 10 TD/6 INTs for the worst team in football last year…God, what a terrible QB.

Josh McCown posted a 1-10 record last season as a starter, racking up 11 TD/14 INT, and looked worse than his awful numbers displayed. Tampa Bay paid big money for McCown, as their beacon…a signal of the new regime’s vision. He went 1-10 for them, and delivered them the #1 overall pick. 

Those aren’t the stats/numbers I wanted to impress you with.

Hold onto your hat for this one…

Mike Glennon has 19 game appearances (not all full games played) over two seasons. Never as a starter or working with the first team regularly…and with multiple head coaches, offensive coordinators, systems, and arguably the worst franchise existing in the NFL. His TD-INT numbers in his two-year career — 19 total game appearances: 29 TD/15 INT

Andrew Luck’s first 19 regular-season game appearances: 26 TD/19 INT.

That’s Andrew Luck–the ‘golden boy’, handed the keys to the car from day-one, always working with the first-team, never comes out of a game, throws as often as he wants…Andrew Luck. You could argue, Luck wasn’t as statistically good as Glennon in their first 19 games comparison. 19 games is all Glennon has so far.

 

The number of games with 2 or more TD passes in their first 19 regular-season games: 

12 of 19 = Glennon

9 of 19 = Luck

 

Boy, does Mike Glennon suck. Ha! Ha! What a joke. Make sure every mainstream article ignores him, or mocks him. Lovie, you better go draft the super-flawed Florida State guy that was fully endorsed by all the same football geniuses who unashamedly told you about the greatness of Blake Bortles the prior year. I shouldn’t question the head coach, he did prove us all wrong with the greatness shown by his hand-picked Josh McCown.

The big loser in all this–the people who continue to support the Bucs. They deserve better than smoke up their arse on Charles Sims and Jameis Winston. 

 

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2015 Fantasy Football Draft Guide Update SAT 7/25/15 (10:50 pm ET)

tags — 2015 Fantasy Football Draft guide, dynasty rookie draft, ADP, PPR, rankings, sleepers

 

Players added since last update:  Corey Fuller, Jonathan Grimes, Alonzo Harris, Desmond Martin, Lance Moore, Casey Pierce

Players with commentary ‘updates’ from breaking news:  Draft Value Report Updated 7/24 Jermaine Gresham and Troy Niklas

Projection changes based on latest news and info (noted with ‘+’ or ‘–‘ on the Draft Guide):  Joique Bell, Phil Dawson, Darren Fells, Jermaine Gresham, Colin Kaepernick, Jerick McKinnon, Troy Niklas, Damond Powell, Kyle Rudolph, Adam Vinatieri, Jarius Wright

Current Draft Guide Player Count (projected, and with commentary): 556 players (on our way to 600+ players projected with scouting commentary on each before opening-day)

 

TO GET THE LATEST DRAFT GUIDE DATA: REFRESH or RELOAD (right click, and select the refresh or reload…or hit F5/update option) your open web page with Draft Guide or Cheat Sheet showing.

*Worst case: close out of your open web page, and re-click original draft guide link to be auto-connected with the latest. Date on bottom of any page should show: 7/25/15.

Any Draft Guide Technical Issues: Email us at customersupport@fantasyfootballmetrics.com

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*The Overall top-24 PPR and non-PPR player rankings/valuations (and a few thousand words of commentary) for the FF-Draft are loaded on a new report for 2015.

Either re-click your original link, or refresh that home page/menu options page–the new report will be the first option above the different ways you can view the draft guide reports.*

 

 

**Our ever-evolving, ever-updating to opening-day, Moneyball scouted, 2015 Fantasy Football e-Draft Guide and Cheat Sheets are available now. Direct link: Draft Guide 2015 options **

 

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