Fantasy Football Metrics

Memo to Phil Simms/CBS…

There is nothing, and I mean nothing, any less interesting than ‘Next Gen Stats’ showing me after a 20-40-80-yard run exactly how many yards the ballcarrier ran according to the GPS chip embedded in the player’s neck, or whatever they do.

What am I supposed to do with this info? You don’t even know what to do with this info! This has been an every week Thursday Night thing, but tonight Ronnie Hillman has a 37-yard run, and they roll out ‘Next Gen Stats’ showing me a red trail that he ran a total of 51 or 61 yards from the time he touched the ball on the play…and are like “see that…wow!” Who cares?

I guess if it means you’re not chattering about your top-5 QB with the biggest feet, or whatever it is you bring to the broadcast…then maybe I’m for it. 

If it can distract me from another five-yard penalty for defensive holding in the SD-DEN game, I’d take that too…

 

Thursday Night Wager, and All Picks For Week-8

OK, a solid (4-2) record on my wagers last week, getting me back up over 60%+ YTD (61.4%). Not so good picking all games against the spread the last few weeks…and now down to 55.9% in all games picked…but who cares, actual wagers is what I care about!

I will take Denver all day long, under a 10.0 point spread, against San Diego tonight. Why wouldn’t you? The Chargers will be missing CB Brandon Flowers with the very good rookie CB Jason Verrett sitting questionable. The Chargers enter the battle with fragile Malcom Floyd, (now) plodding Antonio Gates, and a running game with Branden Oliver and Ronnie Brown…that group goes to Denver to face arguably the best team in football…top offense, top defense. No holes, no key injuries. This is going to be a massacre.

The Chargers signature win is Seattle at home…and that was with all their RBs. Now, that win doesn’t look so impressive. The only win the Chargers have against a .500+ team is Buffalo.

Denver has defeated Indy (3rd best team in the NFL), KC, ARI, and SF at home this year…four playoff teams, all mostly stepped on.

I am going huge on Denver tonight -9.0….like 8.0+ wager points. This game is so good/obvious it scares me.

Good Luck if you’re playing it!

 

My picks on all Week-8 games against the spread right now…

DET -3.0

TB -3.0

CHI +6.0

STL + 7.0

CAR +5.0

NYJ -3.0

JAC +6.0

HOU -3.0

BAL -1.0

PHI +3.5

IND -3.0

CLE -7.0

GB +1.5

DAL -9.5

 

 

 

Week-8 Projections Updated for THU Night (5:30pm ET)

 

Doing Some Research Today, Found This Interesting…

Twitter @FFMetrics

For all those in the ‘Philly’s Defense sucks (insert knowing chuckle)’ analysis…

Andrew Luck has thrown for 310+ yards in every game this season (and more 340+ than not), except for Week-2 vs. Philly…where he had just 172 yards…and less than 100 yards passing heading into the 4th-quarter. That game was at Indy.

Folks…the Eagles-DST is an auto start every week the rest of the season (and maybe a pause vs. Dallas). What we’ve thought about Seattle’s DST since July 2014 (auto start every week), and have been wrong more weeks than not, we should, think about with the Philly-DST. There is a reason why Seattle’s DST is ranked #28 in Fantasy PPG (Fantasy Pros), and Philly is…well..they’re #1, by 5.6 points (over 50%+ more PPG) over the #2 ranked (HOU).

Darn, those lucky, Philadelphia punt blocks…

 

R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here: The Machine via FFM

 **If you enjoy the free content on Fantasy Football Metrics.com please consider making your next Amazon purchase through our website/link partnership with Amazon. You’re going to buy something at Amazon anyway, there is no extra charge — help give us a little love! Feel free to save/bookmark this link in your favorites and you will have it for all future Amazon purchases. Thanks for your consideration! Link — Amazon.com: Online Shopping for Electronics, Apparel, Computers, Books, DVDs & more **

 

2014 Week-7 Dynasty-Fantasy Recap: Giants vs. Cowboys (10/19/2014)

Twitter @FFMetrics

 — The tale of the 14th and 15th ranked PPG (4pts per pass TD) QBs YTD…since Week-3:

Tony Romo: (5-0 record) 2.4 TDs/0.6 INT with 266.4 yards pass per game (all games with two or more passing TDs)

Eli Manning: (3-2 record) 2.2 TDs/0.2 INT with 226.6 yards per game (all but one game with two or more passing TDs)

Eli Manning less the PHI crushing: (3-1 record) 2.8 TD/0.3 INT with 245.5 yards per game (all games with two or more passing TDs)

 

As Dallas has hit its stride, and as the NYG offense has gone from completely inept…to ept…Romo and Manning are top-10 Fantasy QBs week in and out. Given their schedule layouts, and recent trends…it’s not crazy to pair the two of them up, playing matchups…and have one top-5 Fantasy QB amalgamation on your hands. It’s not a ‘crazy’ theory, but it seems like it…

 — I’m more inclined to buy the Odell Beckham Jr. (4 rec. for 34 yards and 2 TDs on 6 targets) uprising than…let’s say like the Davante Adams, Jarvis Landry spikes. OBJ has a personal, long-time history with Eli, and the Mannings…and now with Victor Cruz out, and no other great WRs of note…he’s going to get 8-10 targets a game soon.

*Now we know why the Giants made this ridiculous pick in the 2014 NFL Draft (ridiculous in the valuation standpoint). I’m not sure why there is a show/series on NFL Network chronicling the Giants scouting process for the 2014 NFL Draft. All they had to do was interview Eli, and the series would be done in 5-10 minutes.

It will be interesting to see how Beckham does the next few weeks, as he is a physically gifted, but very raw/unstable WR…and will draw top coverage.

 — Andre Williams (18 carries for 51 yards, 3 targets) had another 15+ carry and less than 70 yards rushing game…just like Rashad Jennings in all but one of his 2014 efforts. The Giants O-Line is really not good. You cannot count heavily on either of their RBs ahead. The Jennings explosion against Houston in Week-3, was like two games worth of carries in one. The 176 yards rushing total is messing with everyone’s perceptions. Until something changes, any NY Giants RB has to be considered a marginal/sketchy start unless the matchup is a gift.

 — Every metric I am looking at says, ‘Danger’…but you have to take the Cowboys-DST somewhat seriously ahead. They face Colt McCoy, Carson Palmer, Blake Bortles over the next three weeks. The Cowboys could seriously be 9-1 after Week-10. My first crushing preseason over/under win total wager loss in a couple of years. They have four potential losses late, so I need them to cough up 1-2 of these next three games. However, The matchups for the team, and for their DST the next three weeks is way in their favor.  

 — I don’t think Gavin Escobar (3 rec. for 65 yards and 2 TDs on 3 targets) is ready to become ‘a thing’. This is a touch of Joseph Fauria circa-2013…the big, forgotten guy/TE, scores a TD(s); YEAH! Escobar is better than Fauria, but he is still a very slow, unathletic TE…BUT he does have good hands and great size. He is useful. If he were to become a full starter, then you could drop Jared Cook and Clay Harbor desperation each week. Escobar is not unseating Jason Witten (2 rec. for 27 yards on 2 targets)…yet.

 — It’s easy for IDP Fantasy rankers to diss Prince Amukamara (7 tackles, 6 solo) among all DBs week-to-week, because ‘default mode’ always tilts towards havey tackles for scoring…and thus a Safety over a Cornerback is more prized, but Amukamara is tracking as the #2 DB in PPG YTD (using Fantasy Pros scoring). He has been a well-above average tackler all year, and has had five games with two PDs in each game…plus three picks. If anyone drops him in the BYE week…take heed.

 

R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here: The Machine via FFM

 **If you enjoy the free content on Fantasy Football Metrics.com please consider making your next Amazon purchase through our website/link partnership with Amazon. You’re going to buy something at Amazon anyway, there is no extra charge — help give us a little love! Feel free to save/bookmark this link in your favorites and you will have it for all future Amazon purchases. Thanks for your consideration! Link — Amazon.com: Online Shopping for Electronics, Apparel, Computers, Books, DVDs & more **

 

2014 Week-7 Dynasty-Fantasy Recap: Dolphins vs. Bears (10/19/2014)

Twitter @FFMetrics

My two impressions from this game, and the first one is obvious: (1) The Dolphins have a really good defense. The other, perhaps is contrarian: (2) The Chicago Bears are a good football team, and coulda/shoulda won this game. The Dolphins deserved to win, no doubt. It wasn’t that the Bears gave it away charitably, like they are so much better than Miami, but with two ‘good’ football teams pitted against each other…the one that gets a few ‘breaks’ wins, and Miami was that team in Week-7. My main message: The Bears are not as bad as ‘the mood’ feels.

 — Speaking of ‘the mood’, there is a FF-opportunity here. I’m not saying Fantasy GMs are just giving up on Alshon Jeffery (2 rec. for 9 yards on 7 targets) en masse, but in spots the ‘untouchable’ default mode is becoming more ‘touchable’ in a deal. I’m not saying you can throw a bag of beads and get him. You’ll have to give fair value…but it might be the right time to pay fair value. The door is cracked open…slightly.

You see Jeffery with 2 catches for 9 yards in this game, and are not excited…believe me his FF-owners are not either. Maybe you are that owner. Jeffery has been pretty good this year, but I have fallen into the mental trap as well…Jeffery just doesn’t ‘feel’ that exciting this season. That new-car smell is wearing off. Our expectations are here (one hand held high), but it seems like he’s performing here (one hand held much lower than the other). In reality, he’s been more toward the higher hand.

In this game, you had the dreadful box score numbers, but in another world, on a couple of balls thrown deep for the Jeffery in the end-zone (50+ yard shots)…one he was scrapping with the defender, and nearly made a leaping catch at the goal-line, and another he beat the defender and was grabbed for a PI. A little twist of luck/fate…and Jeffery has 4-5 catches for 100+ and 1-2 TDs. Instead, 2 rec. for 9 yards. There were a few more shots to him deep, but Cutler got hit as he threw and/or ball batted down.

We’re going to wake up in a week or year, and Alshon Jeffery is going to be one of the five best WRs in football…somewhere in-between a Dez Bryant-Julio Jones mix. Yes, Brandon Marshall gets all the targets and publicity, you have to factor that in, but Jeffery is a mega-talent on a team that airs it out. Marshall’s not getting any younger. I’m just noting here…a normally 10 of 10 value priced WR, that never goes on sale…I see him slipping to a 9/10 or 8/10 this week. He’s worth a shot to bring in if you can land him. Great for a redraft team that is 3-4, 4-3 going up & down led by Jay Cutler…pair Jeffery with him! Dynasty GMs: He can be a cornerstone WR talent of the future.

YTD targets per game for the Bears:

8.4 = Bennett

8.0 = Marshall

7.6 = Jeffery

 

YTD FF PPG (PPR):

15.6 = Bennett (#3 among all TEs)

14.0 = Jeffery (#19 among all WRs)

13.4 = Marshall (#26 among all WRs)

 

 — Lamar Miller (18 carries for 61 yards and 1 TD, 2 rec. for 22 yards on 3 targets) looks very solid on tape this year, and he’s obviously the main guy for Miami right now…a top-10 non-PPR RB YTD.

You should be selling him ‘high’ ASAP.

He had the big day versus Oakland in England Week-4, then Knowshon went down, and for the last two weeks he’s been ‘the man’! Here’s what he has done in those two weeks: 16. 0 carries for 57.0 yards (3.6 ypc), and 2.5 catches for 31.0 yards. He’s a starter, main-carry guy…so you like the accumulation, but just 57.0 yards rushing vs. GB and CHI? He scored a TD in each game, so that’s helping push a mini ‘bubble’ in value…but Miller is not a ‘TD guy’. These are shorter range TDs…the kind that could/will more go to a bigger RB like Daniel Thomas (7 carries for 25 yards, 3 rec. for 25 yards on 3 targets). This recent Miller TD spike could be an aberration.

The output negative  ‘feeling’ is one part of my hesitation, but what really scares me: Weeks 10-14 versus DET-BUF-DEN-NYJ-BAL is going to obliterate him. In the order listed, that is the #2, #4, #3, #8, #7 ranked run-defenses in the NFL. You have to get out ahead of that…before everyone wakes up to it. Before whomever on Matthew Berry’s staff reads my work, and tees it up to him as original thought…and then he speaks it to millions on Sunday morning.

Jacksonville has a very very good run-defense, but the loss of Paul Posluszny may be an OK start now in Week-8. If Miller gets halted by Jacksonville, and people get a whiff of the schedule ahead…you’re going to lose a ton of value dealing away. He is ‘hot’ now…leverage it into something before the bottom falls up. There is almost no upside left, and all downside.

 —  Santonio Holmes (no targets) is a complete waste of space as a football player any more. I hope he gets released, and they give Chris Williams (no targets) some work.

 —  IDP Jelani Jenkins’ six-game split this season:

11.7 tackles per game = Weeks 1-3

  4.0 tackles per game = Weeks 4-7 

The return of Koa Misi and Reshed Jones has ended that Jenkins spike that got many, including me, perked up.

 —  IDP Olivier Vernon played 47 defensive snaps (89% of available snaps), and did not register a stat. Last week, he had 7 tackles and 2 sacks.

 

R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here: The Machine via FFM

 **If you enjoy the free content on Fantasy Football Metrics.com please consider making your next Amazon purchase through our website/link partnership with Amazon. You’re going to buy something at Amazon anyway, there is no extra charge — help give us a little love! Feel free to save/bookmark this link in your favorites and you will have it for all future Amazon purchases. Thanks for your consideration! Link — Amazon.com: Online Shopping for Electronics, Apparel, Computers, Books, DVDs & more **

 

Week-8 Projections Updated 8:30pm ET

FYI

 

Week-8: IDP Deep-Sleepers

Twitter @FFMetrics

My weekly IDP articleIDP Sleepers for ASL

 

2014 Week-7 Dynasty-Fantasy Recap: Rams vs. Seahawks (10/19/2014)

Twitter @FFMetrics

 — The past two weeks vs. the Rams run-defense:

Marshawn Lynch = 18 carries for 53 yards and 0 TD

Turbin + Michael = 4 carries for 12 yards and 0 TD

Frank Gore = 16 carries for 38 yards and 0 TD

Carlos Hyde = 11 carries for 14 yards and 0 TD

The last two weeks of RBs combined vs. the Rams : 49 carries for 117 yards (2.4 ypc) and 0 TDs.

 

Previous to this, the Rams were getting obliterated against the run by RBs. They were also tough on the pass, but that’s probably because everyone ran so successfully against them.

As the run-D has amped up, the last two weeks of QB play: Wilson + Kaepernick 2.5 TD/0 INT and 328.0 passing yards…and those guys are not heavy passing QBs by nature.

Either the Rams have totally shifted defensive focus, or they played in a different way against what they thought were run heavy teams? Oh, and the opposing QBs figured it out too…CK and RW ran 10 times for 143 yards in those two games. The Rams get the better than credited runner Alex Smith this week…

It might be tougher than Jamaal Charles than you would expect, but what are we going to do? Bench him? Keep it in mind for Daily Leagues…

 — Tre Mason (18 carries for 85 yards and 1 TD) is not a special RB. He’s good. He’s not better than Benny Cunningham (2 carries for 3 yards, 5 rec. for 46 yards and 1 TD on 5 targets). Now, you might read that statement and roll your eyes, because I am a known Benny-lover, and ‘here I go again‘ hating the next hot RB. Honestly, Tre Mason is good…it’s not a slam. Benny is better. Don’t make me play the Antone Smith card, because I will. I could play the Daryl Richardson card as well…that card lets you know Jeff Fisher is out of his mind on RB usage.

The Antone Smith card is why you bet on Tre Mason going forward. Teams want to prove how smart their draft picks are, I guess. That’s why Davonta Freeman…I mean, Tre Mason will take key carries. Tre Mason is a good NFL RB. He should be part of a nice duo…like he’d work nicely with an Alfred Morris. If the Rams are going to jam him 15+ carries a game…I’m not getting in the FF-way. I’m just not wandering into this forest if I can help it…Zac Stacy is better than Mason, and Benny is better than all of them. That makes me fear Tre next week, and the week after. But, because I am out of my mind on these things…Mason will go on to win the Rookie of the Year, as Benny goes on to play a nice role on special teams. Cunningham won’t even make the Pro Bowl as a special teamer because Antone Smith is a better tackler on the return coverages.

Benny Cunningham is a physically bigger Shane Vereen…I hope his next team sees that.

 — See my Pro Football Spot deep sleeper article for info on Seattle TE Cooper Helfet (3 targets for 61 yards and 1 TD on 6 targets).

 — Like I said, Brian Quick (2 rec. for 33 yards on 2 targets) is not a #1 WR talent, but it was fun while it lasted. Austin Davis’s 15 minutes are past due as well…

 — IDP K.J. Wright (10 tackles, 7 solo) should be good for double-digit tackles again Week-8 with IDP Bobby Wagner out. 

 — You know how good Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning are in FF, right? In a four-point passing TD league, Russell Wilson (23-36 for 313 yards, 2 TD/0 INT, 106 yards rushing and 1 TD) is less than 1.0 PPG behind Peyton, and 1.4 PPR behind Luck YTD. How’s that for an FFM QB2 to take before others took their QB1?

You probably started crying a week ago when he had a ‘low’ game.

The emotional roller coaster of timing players, or angrily benching them, based on last week is destroying many a FF-team. You rarely get 16 for 16 wonderful starts each week in a season. If you are losing with a ton of points on your bench…part of it might be you’re ebbing & flowing with the football media/ast week’s wind. It’s why some are mad at Nick Foles (again)…he had a near zero in a bizarre game against the 49ers a few weeks ago…and now, “he’s killing you.” In the rest of his games, he’s a tracking as a top 10-13 QB overall (top 8-11 when you take out QBs spiked in there who never for start for anyone). Minus that one horrible output game, he’d be tracking about a point per game or so away from leaping into the top-6, ahead of all the second tier. It’s a neat ‘buy’ opportunity on Foles…a proven racker of stats last year, but you’re looking at the YTD numbers and putting him in ‘timeout’.

Take away the bad game against Dallas…Russell Wilson is trending as THE #1 FANTASY QB IN THE NFL (4 pts per pass TD)…on many people’s bench last week.

You might have started Jay Cutler instead of Wilson last week. Before last week, Jay Cutler was #6 in PPG among QBs (4 pts per pass TDs), closing in on the top guys, and then had a dud last week…so many of my emails this week: “Jay Cutler is killing me…

The one-week long memory is killing many a Fantasy Football team.

Is this how you are managing your Fantasy lineup each week? Link: Mr. Short Term Memory…

 

R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here: The Machine via FFM

 **If you enjoy the free content on Fantasy Football Metrics.com please consider making your next Amazon purchase through our website/link partnership with Amazon. You’re going to buy something at Amazon anyway, there is no extra charge — help give us a little love! Feel free to save/bookmark this link in your favorites and you will have it for all future Amazon purchases. Thanks for your consideration! Link — Amazon.com: Online Shopping for Electronics, Apparel, Computers, Books, DVDs & more **

 

Week-8 Dynasty/Fantasy Football Deep Sleepers…

Week-8 deep sleepers article for Pro Football Spot (below):

The Tampa Bay DST

RB Antonio Andrews

TE Cooper Helfet

Link/clickthrough: Week-8 Deep Sleepers on PFS

 

Fantasy Football Metrics

HOME       CONTACT US