Fantasy Football Metrics

Fantasy Football Week-3: Waiver and Trade Thoughts 2.0…

Twitter @FFMetrics

 – The Mark Ingram injury will bump Khiry Robinson, obviously. It almost guarantees he will rush for at least one TD per week. It should also help Pierre Thomas get an extra boost with a few more carries. I already PPR-love PT as it is, and even more without Ingram there. 

I wonder if the Saints would rather have Darren Sproles or Mark ingram today (even if he didn’t break his hand)?

 – I’ll expand more on it in the SF-CHI recap, but TE Derek Carrier is a name many of you long-time FFM/CFM’ers know. If Vernon Davis is down for a little bit, you might think Vance McDonald is the play, but SF tends to rely upon him as a blocker. The TE who is WR-athletic like Davis is Derek Carrier.

I will be insufferable if Carrier makes a splash…and then unbearable when he drifts back to the bench to be ignored for years. 

 –   This will be insane, but when you consider how awful the options are for non-obvious DSTs, the DST that will be available, and sticks out for the next three games: The New Orleans Saints.

In their next three games, they face Cassel-Romo-McCown…and one of the keys here is two of those games are home games. The Saints haven’t been at home yet with this 0-2 season start. Last year, when the Saints were at home during the Fantasy season (Weeks 1-16), they did not allow over 20 offensive points in a game (15.4 off. pts. per game allowed home). On the road in that same span in 2013, they allowed over 20 offensive points four times (20.9 off. pts. allowed per game away).

You may want in on a desperate team/DST, in a loud dome where they almost never lose. Last year, this was a surprisingly good defense. They get Matt Cassel in Week-3…he of the four horrific INTs last week. Week-4 is at Tony Romo (and his 3 picks opening day), and then they close out the three game run with the very turnover prone Josh McCown.

 – If I am TE desperate, I am cool crossing my fingers with Larry Donnell.

YTD targets: Donnell 17, Victor Cruz 16.

 – If Lamar Miller is out (which is a maybe), and we know Moreno is out…what’s the play? Damien Williams is the one everyone will rush to, but do not rule out talented Tulane rookie RB Orleans Darkwa. Williams has a little more size on him, but Darkwa is a better all-around RB, with more savvy as a runner (in my eyeball estimation). They both had time in the preseason, but Williams usually a little ahead of Darkwa.

In the end, they would probably split time…and Daniel Thomas is now possibly making it a trio-cluster. I don’t want in on it, but if I had to, I wouldn’t rule out a flyer on Darkwa. Even if he doesn’t start, by mid-game it may be his job. Williams is not sure thing, but every Fantasy analyst is going to act like it.

 –  WRs are not RBs.

Yes…Knile Davis is as FF-good as Jamaal Charles filling in for him..

No…Mohammed Sanu doesn’t become A.J. Green just because.

Does Sanu get a bump? Sure. I’ll also bet Dane Sanzenbacher has a great game (PPR deep-deep-deep sleeper alert), and bet your life on a Jermaine Gresham TD this week…it may be his only catch, but it will be a TD. Andy Dalton will spread the ball around. Sanu is not Green.

 – I remember the days when I wrote about a guy named Bobby Rainey, and blathered on like a maniac on wondering why team’s did not lock him up when they could. Now, he’s about to displace Doug Martin. How insane is that?

 –  You know that cool clock sound that is on the TV Show ’24′? Every time you see Josh McCown, play that sound in your heads…as we are not far away from a Mike Glennon takeover, and he was made to run with that Tampa WR group. I’m not saying top-5 Fantasy QB or anything, but useful top 10-15 guy…good in great matchups, etc., with upside. Love Glennon in that situation.

 –  Remind me to tell you if I am starting Greg Zuerlein in a given week. If I am rolling with him, he’s going get one FG max with no XPs. When I get frustrated and bench/cut him…he’s good for 3 FGs minimum.

– Denver rookie Bradley Roby is producing as an IDP…6.5 tackles per game–all solo. Plus, 1.5 PDs per game. He looks terrific on tape as well.

 –  I love Russell Wilson the NFL QB. I like Russell Wilson the Fantasy QB. I am lukewarm on Russell Wilson the Fantasy QB without Percy Harvin.

 – I think Danny Woodhead is a huge PPR upside guy with Ryan Mathews gone. We all know what he can do in PPR, but re-remember that excellent early FF-run last year…I think it could happen for the next few weeks.

 –  I’d say sell Antonio Gates ‘high’, but who are you going to get at TE in the flip? You;re not getting Jimmy or Julius…thus the ultra-importance of the Fantasy TE is proven once again.

 – Speaking of a counting things down…it won’t be long before Bishop Sankey is a ‘thing’. Where else is the most explosive RB on the team running 3rd-string? Atlanta doesn’t count, because Antone Smith is 5th-string. Too many 50+ yard TDs.

Mike Smith discussion with Antone Smith on why he had no carries last week: Look, we can’t get into the flow of our playbook or control the clock if you just take simple plays and turn them into long TDs all the time. Get with the program. 

 – It only took two weeks for Davante Adams to overtake Jarrett Boykin…Adams is a junior James Jones in development.

 –  We probably all suspected Travis Kelce would have a nice year. However, he is going to lead the team in receptions and yards…and receiving TDs this season. More so because the Chiefs have the worst WR corps in the history of the NFL (or is at least a contender)…and Jamaal is banged up.

 –  You want an RB1 who is usually available at a discount…Frank Gore. He is not giving that job up to Carlos Hyde.

 –  With limits, I’m still a Bernard Pierce believer.

 – If I had to bet, I’d say Adrian Peterson is going to wind up done in the NFL for 2014, if not longer…and I think Minnesota is smartly setting up making the NFL the bad guy.  Allowing them to throw down the penalty.

At the first basic hearing of the story…my reaction was more “We’re soft as a nation” type machismo. After I heard Colin Cowherd’s details and take on it, I’ll agree with him, and it’s is worse than I realized. You should listen to what he had to say on the matter.

If I have Matt Asiata, I hold him even though it appears AP is coming back…because it won’t be long. Once AP is gone, I’m selling Asiata. He cannot consistently be a starting, main-carry RB. it won’t be long before Jerick McKinnon splits him. Worst case, Asiata just isn’t starting NFL material.

 

R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here: The Machine via FFM

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2014 Week-2 Dynasty-Fantasy Recap: Patriots vs. Vikings (9/14/2014)

Twitter @FFMetrics

 – I’m not letting my ‘Patriots demise’ story-line off the hook just yet. The Patriots got the definitive bounce-back win, as the planet (except me) expected. However, I would say this: Even Jacksonville looked dominant (for a time) over Philadelphia if you handed them easy scores off turnovers. Now, of course, the Patriots aren’t Jacksonville, so they’re not going to blow the gifts they were handed. I am not convinced that we know anything more definitive on the Patriots team after this week, just like we can’t read too much into Kirk Cousins not flopping against Jacksonville…it’s not a career defining moment for him either because of the opponent/situation.

The Vikings took the opening drive, without Adrian Peterson, and just jammed it down the Pats throats for a quick 7-0 lead. In response, the Pats went three and out. After that the Cassel payback to Bill Belichick began…air-ball after air-ball floated into the secondary for easy interceptions. Still, clock winding down to half-time, the Vikings were knocking on the door to cut the Pats lead to 17-14. IDP god of the week, Chandler Jones (8 tackles, 2 sacks, 3 TFL, 1 blocked FG and a TD), blocked their half-ending FG, and returned it for a TD to make a potential 17-10 game…a 24-7 soul-crushing lead.

Much credit to the Patriots-Defense, but I saw some of the same soft defense from opening day…only it got camouflaged by the slowness of Matt Asiata, and the waning moments of Matt Cassel’s career as an NFL starter.

The Patriots still look unimposing on offense, with a solid pass defense that is susceptible to the run. I’m not sure the ‘two Matt’s’ on Minnesota are a great litmus test that ‘all is well’ in New England.

I still think the Patriots are the favorite to win their division, and good for a possible deep run in the playoffs again. I am railing on them a little more for context week-to-week. This is not the Patriots of old. This is not the team that never loses to teams they shouldn’t, etc. This is not the offense that is a no-way start against your talented DST. This offense is slipping quick. This team is very flawed…my theory, but we’ll see.

 – Perhaps if New England gave the ball to Cordarrelle Patterson (4 rec. for 56 yards on 7 targets) things would have been different? The NFL is only place where a guy like Cordarrelle Patterson can run for four long TDs as a WR on his last 13 NFL carries…and then never see a carry in a critical game against the vaunted Patriots…with the other weapon on the team snatched away. How is zero carries even possible?

As fans we always are looking at the NFL, and/or our favorite team and going “What we’re they thinking?”, “Why did they call that play,” or “I could do a better job running that team!” I’m here to tell you, for most of you…that is the case. We probably could do a better job. You just pursued a more realistic career out of school. It’s all open to bar-stool debate and second-guessing, when things like no carries for Patterson happen. I seriously thought Patterson might carry the ball 5+ times with AP out. 

There is no reason why Patterson would not have one carry. What’s a possible excuse?

…”We wanted to use him as a decoy.” As a decoy for not scoring TDs, or winning games?

…”We don’t want to use him like that all the time to make it a surprise.” Great, don’t run Adrian Peterson when he comes back…because the other team’s expecting that. Throw it more with Matt Cassel because that seems like a gem of a deceptive plan.

…”The game got out of hand, so we dialed it back.” Great, you conceded the contest, which is fine…but then why did you still have him out on the field at risk to a foolish injury because you’re too stupid to remove him out of the game you conceded was lost (I think they pulled him with under two minutes left, but they were down 30-7 to start the 4th-quarter)? Patterson almost got hurt a few times chasing Patriots defenders running back pick-offs. So why leave him out there to risk injury if the game was out of hand in the 4th-quarter. Maybe, if you handed him the ball once, perhaps he may have done that crazy thing he does like 30-40% of the time, and runs it for a long TD. Might that have helped with the whole win-loss thing?

I tell ya’, that Norv Turner is an evil genius. I can hear him now: “They will never see it coming. They expect a Cordarrelle Patterson run (because the opponents smartly see that he scores a TD on 30-40% of his carries), so here’s what we’ll do…we’ll have Matt Cassel throw fair catch pop-up passes near Darrelle Revis. Plan-B is chuck it in the general direction of Kyle Rudolph, who is rarely open because he is slow, even with lost weight.”

Football is the only sport where if it were a baseball analogy, they have a guy on their own team who hits a home run every three at bats, but strikes out on the other two…and they would not use him because ‘he strikes out too much’. We’d cry, but he hits 180 HRs per year? They’d say, ‘Yeah, but all those the strikeouts…that’s just bad baseball. He need to focus more.’

I swear to you I had a VP of a large corporation I once worked for tell me (as I had just moved into a local management position) that he really didn’t like our local salesman’s work effort much…who by the way was the #1 producing salesman in the company–two years running. the guy was about receive the top award in the company for his activity in sales. Why didn’t my VP respect him? Simple, he was worried that he spent so much time on larger deals (and signing them) around the state, that he would be unaware of the smaller deals going on down the street. 

Sorry, folks…I can lead you to Cordarrelle Patterson, but I cannot make Norv Turner drink. We rely upon Norv not to be a fool…and thus we open ourselves up to the inexplicable. 

 –  Shane Vereen (6 carries for 40 yards, 1 rec. on 2 targets) was an FF-letdown this week, but don’t dismay…yet. Again, this game got out of hand, and it changed the whole offense conservative and simple. When you’ve broken your opponent’s ‘will’ quickly…you just run Stevan Ridley (25 carries for 101 yards and 1 TD) up the middle a bunch, and get out of town. Save the clever Vereen plays for another day…and probably not next week against OAK either.

 – Kenbrell Thompkins (DNP) was inactive, and Aaron Dobson (1 rec. for 13 yards on 2 targets) was promoted ahead of him. I think that shows a little of the offensive despair taking place with the Patriots. Rob Gronkowski (4 rec. for 32 yards on 6 targets) is moving like a statue. I’m not sure if Brandon LaFell or Tim Wright were even active…they were such a non-factor. Aaron Dobson provides at least a taller target for Brady to look for.

Julian Edelman (6 rec. for 81 yards and 1 TD on 7 targets, 9 yards rushing) is going to have an awesome PPR year in 2014 because Brady has nothing else he wants to throw to.

 – Anthony Barr (5 solo tackles) continues to look good as an OLB/ILB in this Vikings defense. I saw him more as a pass-rush guy coming out of UCLA, and unwilling tackler otherwise, but he has held his own these first two weeks. He might be a decent IDP LB after all. I’m a touch suspect, but his speed-agility could allow him to rack up tackle numbers…even if just assisted ones.

 –  The Vikings seem to be sticking with Adrian Peterson, but that might change if/when the NFL steps. If you hold Matt Asiata (13 carries for 36 yards, 5 rec. for 48 yards and 1 TD on 7 targets), I would try to highway rob the owner of AP by dealing him an expensive Asiata (if you don’t really need him)…just on the ‘handcuff’ basis alone. Today, AP is playing…tomorrow he may be suspended for the season. Asiata has FF-value this week as a starter if something happens right away, or has value as a backup if the AP case is going to be foot-dragged-reviewed by the NFL for a few weeks. Asiata is a chip to play, and I would play it…I would try to deal him to the AP owner.

In the end, Asiata just isn’t an every down RB…an effective one, that is. If AP leaves, the scene will quickly shift to some kind of split with Jerick McKinnon (2 carries for 7 yards, 2 rec. for 5 yards on 3 targets). Asiata may be at his peak value right now in the chaos. 

 – Dominique Easley (1 PD) is going to help the Patriots cause, if he doesn’t get re-injured. He looked very good in the spots he was in on. He is a top-10 type of draft talent when fully healthy…a force on the D-Line that opens things up for others as well. A healthy Easley, and the return of Jamie Collins…and Patriots might be able to sneak their way back to a Super Bowl run with a great, opportunistic defensive scheme. This sounds good after watching the Vikings tape, but didn’t look so hot against the vaunted Miami Dolphins offense in Week-1.

 

– R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here: The Machine via FFM

 **If you enjoy the free content on Fantasy Football Metrics.com please consider making your next Amazon purchase through our website/link partnership with Amazon. You’re going to buy something at Amazon anyway, there is no extra charge — help give us a little love! Feel free to save/bookmark this link in your favorites and you will have it for all future Amazon purchases. Thanks for your consideration! Link – Amazon.com: Online Shopping for Electronics, Apparel, Computers, Books, DVDs & more **

 

2014 Week-2 Dynasty-Fantasy Recap: Jaguars vs. Redskins (9/14/2014)

Twitter @FFMetrics

 – This will be a fun week watching all the football analysts fall into the Kirk Cousins (22-33 for 250 yards, 2 TD/0 INT) trap they set for themselves. They do it every time, because there exists little discerning eye or computer model for the QB position…it is all an echo chamber of dart throwing for them. I don’t fault them for being wrong…but I do marvel at how in a society where we cannot fully agree on domestic abuse or child abuse issues laid before us, national football analysts all have the same exact take Kirk Cousins. Nary a dissenter.

Why should our collective first reaction not be: “Awesome, Kirk Cousins came in relief, and played a solid game beating the 1a or 1b worst franchise in football!” This would be like judging your favorite major conference college team’s talent level after they beat Silly Putty State by 60+ in their home opener. Do we really want to put all our eggs in that basket? All the discussion I’ve heard is how every one on the planet wanted this anyway…not question a football future with Cousins.

If the head coach secretly wanted Cousins to start all along, why didn’t he do so opening-day? Shouldn’t this call into question the leadership and decision-making of the head coach? Or does it further the notion that coaches are human…looking to hang onto a nice paying gig as long as humanly possible? There’s more trouble benching RG3 for Cousins walking in the door…but if you really thought that Cousins was best for business, and didn’t do it–what does it say about the coach? Isn’t that corporate malfeasance on behalf of the organization paying you? 

Kirk Cousins is Matt Flynn. I mean that on several levels…

1) As talents…very similar.

2) The media fell apart loving both of them as backups…and rattling the public cages to try to get whatever dysfunctional NFL team to make a trade for Cousins.

3) Teams followed the media, traded for Flynn, and well…you know the rest.

4) If Russell Wilson had dislocated his ankle Week-2 of his rookie season, there would have been the same media excitement for a Flynn takeover. At the time, in 2012, the national football media was killing Seattle for sticking with Wilson those first 5-6 rookie games. They wanted ‘their guy’ (Flynn). Their guy has failed at every stop…failed to fulfill the destiny as franchise QB. Were you issued an apology for butchering this ‘call’ from the football media?

I love the story I heard on ESPN this morning…a Patriots beat reporter watching Redskins training camp this year thought Cousins ran the offense better than RG3 in camp, and also claims everyone in the stands and coaches for New England thought the same. Two things on that…

a) Is this the same group of Patriots beat writers who were telling us James White was going to be a key goal-line RB for the Pats this season?

b) If I was the coach of any NFL team, and you asked me about it…I’d tell you how great Cousins was too. Hoping the Redskins would stop playing RG3, and go with Cousins. As an opponent, I’d rather plan for Cousins than RG3. I’d also hope some dumb team would trade away high picks for Cousins.

Forgotten, is Cousins’ stretch last year, which included being a starter for the final three games: 52.3% Comp Pct. 4 TD/7 INT in 155 passes. Everyone loves the backup QB…and for some reason, ever since Day-3 of the 2012 NFL Draft, there has been a national football media love affair with Cousins. He can ‘hold down the fort’, but as teams will find out about with Josh McCown or a Matt Flynn...it’s not sustainable over time. Cousins is just not that talented, and we’ve maintained that from the beginning. He’s not a disaster, he’s just not the good-great QB everyone is talking about today on ESPN.

Let’s see how he does against PHI-NYG-SEA-ARI ahead. I guarantee you this…most football media people would rather have Cousins over Foles. They are are also the ones that will be telling you about how great Cousins will be for the rest of Fantasy Football 2014.

The hype is going to drive Cousins’ FF-value, so feel free to grab him on waivers…and then flip him this week, but do it this week. Don’t let another card be revealed.

 – So what do you do with RG3 (2-3 for 38 yards, 0 TD/0 INT 22 yards rushing, 1 dislocated ankle) for Dynasty?

You have to assume ‘it’s over’. Not just 2014, but forever. Players who get hurt constantly tend to get hurt constantly. The injuries will keep taking a toll on the one extra gift that RG3 had, that no other QB had…and that was elite running ability with a nice down field arm. Take away the run-fear for the defense, and he becomes an average pocket passer. He needs to run to be a great passer. It’s all slipping away with him now.

You saw him start this game running the read-option, and it was 2012 all over again…electric. 

I wanted to invest in RG3, cheaply last week, but now I am tapping out. Let him be someone else’s headache for 2014…or for Dynasty long-term. This is one injury too many for me. 

 –  I said last week that Washington looked much better on tape than being given credit for, and thus they were one of my bets of the week. Part of that was a better feel for the Redskins, but the other part is a tried and true belief that the Jaguars are fighting the Raiders for the most embarrassingly run franchise in the NFL.

How’s this culture change going? How’s this new Gus Bradley attitude? You can be a sensation as an “X & O” coach, but if you have no on-field talent…you’re done. Jacksonville continues to do the wrong things all the time. I remember watching their group at the Senior Bowl, coaching during the week…and I just didn’t get what they were working on with their limited time. They spent inordinate amounts of time on punt return setups and kick returns…and stretching and loosening up (despite the fact the players were out there warming up ahead). A college all-star game that is meaningless for wins-losses, and is a showcase for the talent…the Jags seemed to think it was an audition for the special teams and strength & conditioning coaches. What I saw the QBs (Garoppolo, Carr, Fales) were working on with the QB coach on was nonsensical.

Aaron Donald, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Jordan Matthews walked amongst them for a full week…and they drafted Blake Bortles and Marqise Lee. History is not going to shine well upon that move.

There is still time to bring back Ricky Stanzi...but they’d probably mess that up too. 

 – Toby Gerhart (7 carries for 8 yards, 2 rec. on 9 yards on 2 targets) has been a bust so far for the Jags. He got his ankle hurt last week, and played at about 80%+ this week…but it wouldn’t matter because when you’re the Jags, you get spanked and have to rely heavily on passing the ball. I had hoped the Jaguars would try to control the clock and possession via Gerhart, but the 10 sacks they allowed this weeks makes me a touch concerned about their blocking abilities and scheme.

What do you FF-do with Gerhart now? It’s a tough call, because Jacksonville won’t always be beaten by 30+ every game, and Gerhart is their workhorse…if he can ever get work to be that horse. You want to hold onto a 15+ touch a game guy…but I understand it’s not a priority if it is 15+ touches of garbage output. I’m trying to hold on, unless good-great options are presenting themselves otherwise. I like Gerhart, but Jacksonville’s overall team is even worse than I imagined.

 – Ryan Kerrigan (4 tackles, 4 sacks) had half a season high in sacks in this one game. I wouldn’t IDP freak out on getting Kerrigan…I would just try to get sack guys who face Jacksonville the upcoming week (IND-SD-PIT ahead).

 –  I hope you appreciate me saving you from the Allen Hurns (2 rec. for 13 yards on 6 targets) waiver mistake last week? I’ll receive no applause for that, but had he caught a wide-open bomb for a 50+ yard TD, instead of flat out dropping it like he did in this game…my e-mail would have overflowed with how I’m an idiot. It wouldn’t have mattered if he did catch the pass…he’s not a very good WR, and there is no real future hope here with Hurns.

As I also noted, Allen Robinson (4 rec. for 75 yards on 6 targets) was more the way to go on a Jags WR play…and he led the Jags WRs in targets in this game. Again, he has the stink of Jacksonville to push his talent…so don’t hold your FF-breath.

 

– R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here: The Machine via FFM

 **If you enjoy the free content on Fantasy Football Metrics.com please consider making your next Amazon purchase through our website/link partnership with Amazon. You’re going to buy something at Amazon anyway, there is no extra charge — help give us a little love! Feel free to save/bookmark this link in your favorites and you will have it for all future Amazon purchases. Thanks for your consideration! Link – Amazon.com: Online Shopping for Electronics, Apparel, Computers, Books, DVDs & more **

 

Week-3: Early Fantasy Waiver and Trade Thoughts…

Twitter @FFMetrics

 – I thought it might go halfway into the 2014 season before we started to see Davante Adams make a move as the #3 WR for Green Bay. That day looks as if it has arrived this week. Adams was second on the team in targets, and played a key role as Jarrett Boykin faded into the background…and to the sidelines. Once Adams is entrenched, it’s over for Boykin…which was only a matter of time.

If you liked James Jones with Aaron Rodgers, and if you had hope that Boykin would JJ 2.0, you were wrong (and I was right), then you must have Adams.

 –  Looking at the contract structure, and if you made me guess…I’d say Adrian Peterson is done as a Minnesota Viking.

Now, that’s what I would do…release him (or trade him), and get away from that ridiculous $12M+ a year deal for a RB. He hardly has any bonus due…so a flat-out cut would cost them almost nothing.

AP is terrific, but you don’t pay that for a RB…if AP/RB mattered all that much, the Vikings would have a couple of Super Bowls by now. He has one playoff win in seven+ NFL seasons now.

The Vikings should drop him, and put that money to use in a variety of ways. Because I think that’s business logical, the Vikings will likely do the opposite.

 – If you want to quit on Toby Gerhart, I can’t blame you. Jacksonville is even more inept than we could have predicted. The schedule ahead is favorable. I’d try to look at one more week (Week-3 vs. Indy). 

 –  OK, maybe it is Brian Quick’s time. I have to re-watch/study this tape, but the numbers don’t lie. He’s becoming the Rams #1 WR. I don’t believe it. Given their QB play, I don’t really care. But, I’d take him now on a gamble he stays #1 for a while.

 – We thought Danny Woodhead would be a wise long-shot as a PPR play against Seattle, but now he has value as a possible top 15-20 PPR RB again with Ryan Mathews gone for weeks (or longer).

 – I wouldn’t get too worked up on the Delanie Walker great FF-game in Week-2. Delanie is a decent enough TE option, and a worthwhile TE2, but you are relying on Jake Locker to make this happen each week…it’s not possible.

I take Larry Donnell as seriously for an emergency TE2…maybe more so. Donnell is a physically big/tall target Eli can identify/lean on with the blurry field he sees. Donnell has had two very nice FF games back-to-back in the Giants’ garbage offense.

 – Travis Kelce is going to make a move as a top-10 Fantasy TE now. He’s not going to enter the land of the elites, but he is going to be a low-end TE1 from here on in.

 – I’m not a Kirk Cousins fan, per se, but if he keeps it simple with the weapons Washington has…he’s going to be OK enough to keep Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson’s FF-value propped.

As far as Niles Paul, I don’t know. I’m delighted for the guy, but he has never proven to be a consistent receiving success in his life. At a certain point, he’s worth a look, but future FF-star, I think not.

 – The Patriots de-activated Kendall Thompkins, and activated Aaron Dobson. I would have investment interest in Dobson…Gronk looks death-slow, and that’s about it for receiving weapons with any height on the Pats. Dobson could be nice for non-PPR/TD-maker.

 – Bradley Roby is making an IDP impact right away. I thought he would someday, but not in the first two weeks of the season. He’s averaging 6.5 tackles and 2.5 PDs per game after Week-2. Plus, he has looked great shutting down opposing WRs.  

 – You want deep-sleepers:

Jerick McKinnon…once everyone tosses him back this week as the wrong fish post-AP, if AP is gone-gone. It will only be a matter of time before McKinnon is pushed more for his game-breaking skills, if AP is gone-gone. Matt Asiata is not going to take the Vikings to the promised land.

Bishop Sankey...will win that job soon enough, and not look back for a while…or years. Greene-McCluster aren’t going to ‘do it’ for the coaches soon, and they’ll start working Sankey a little more each week, and then ‘boom’…hostile takeover.

 

– R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here: The Machine via FFM

 **If you enjoy the free content on Fantasy Football Metrics.com please consider making your next Amazon purchase through our website/link partnership with Amazon. You’re going to buy something at Amazon anyway, there is no extra charge — help give us a little love! Feel free to save/bookmark this link in your favorites and you will have it for all future Amazon purchases. Thanks for your consideration! Link – Amazon.com: Online Shopping for Electronics, Apparel, Computers, Books, DVDs & more **

 

2014 Week-2 Dynasty-Fantasy Recap: Steelers vs. Ravens (9/11/2014)

Twitter @FFMetrics

 – The Pittsburgh Steelers-DST has been my biggest FF-mistake to start 2014. I got decent matchups in Weeks 1-2, and produced absolutely nothing from it. I could have them against McCown-Bortles in Weeks 4-5…if I had any confidence left.

They’ve held opposing QBs under 200 yards per game passing, but they cannot generate a turnover. They’ve dropped somewhere between 2-4 interceptions in the first two games, but you get no FF-points for that.

They had about 37 goal-line stands in this game with the Ravens, which resulted in four short Justin Tucker FGs…nice moral victories, but most of the FF-leagues I’m involved with don’t give points for that either. The Steelers-Offense keeps putting the Steelers-Defense in peril, and when it’s not the offensive turnovers and stalled drives, it’s the defensive penalties. As a team, the Steelers have amassed 20 penalties in 2014.

Everything about this team is becoming undisciplined and sloppy…not what we all know as ‘Steelers football’.

If you want to drop the PITT-DST (if you haven’t already)…feel free to do so. I could make a case that they should be fine against CAR-TB-JAC ahead…but I run the risk of hanging onto a nag for too long, and looking like an idiot. Too many other options out there week to week to keep watching things slip through the Steelers hands.

 – Ryan Shazier (11 tackles, 6 solo) is not helping the cause much. My greatest fear for him in the NFL, as we wrote in our scouting report on College Football Metrics.com, was that he was potentially a touch undersized to be a high-end ILB. He could be a great OLB, and/or Rover…just let his speed take over. What I have seen so far is Shazier out of position on the field, and/or playing a zone on most passes (when he’s really a great man-to-man guy), as well as getting blocked out of plays.

He is a weapon to be used rushing the passer, covering WR-RB-TEs, but I am seeing him playing more as a traditional ILB right now. I assume that will change as he gets more comfortable. Right now, he’s not helping the team as much as he could. He’ll be fine for IDP, because he’s so fast that he gets to tackles before others, but for NFL-purposes he hasn’t been too awesome yet.

  – If I were Torrey Smith (1 rec. for 10 yards on 3 targets), I would not even negotiate a new contract with the Ravens…I’d just let it expire and hit free agency. He was a ghost in this game…a continuing trend from last season. As for Fantasy Football-2014, I want nothing to do with the way Torrey is being used. With his value in the dumpster, in a Dynasty League with a deep roster…I’d look at sitting on him as an investment WR4-5, with the hopes of him making a move to a better place for him to work in 2015+.

 – I told the world last week not to rule out Bernard Pierce (22 carries for 96 yards, 1 rec. for 7 yards on 2 targets) bouncing right back to be the main Ravens’ RB in Week-2. The majority of the FF-world gave that job to Justin Forsett (4 carries for 16 yards on 4 targets) on Monday. Pierce is the more talented RB. Many have said all along: “He’s the right fit for the Kubiak one-cut running system.” I agree. 

 – If you watched this game, then you know why I got excited in Week-1 over how exquisite Le’Veon Bell (11 carries for 59 yards, 5 rec. for 48 yards on 5 targets) looks this season with the weight loss.  He is the new Matt Forte…never gets 100+ yards in one category, but combines for 120+ with 3-7 catches a game. 

 – I was ready to pronounce the Ravens dead last week…which usually signals them to win a Super Bowl, so get ready another Ravens title this season, because I still think they are on the ‘dead’ side of the ledger still. They were solid/mistake free in this game, but wholeheartedly boring/dull. Fortunately, for the Ravens, Todd Haley out-dulled Gary Kubiak in one for the ages!

…by one for the ages, I mean: Six FGs on numerous stalled red-zone attempts, and the only TDs coming from the electric Owen Daniels (5 rec. for 28 yards on 5 targets).

 

– R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here: The Machine via FFM

 **If you enjoy the free content on Fantasy Football Metrics.com please consider making your next Amazon purchase through our website/link partnership with Amazon. You’re going to buy something at Amazon anyway, there is no extra charge — help give us a little love! Feel free to save/bookmark this link in your favorites and you will have it for all future Amazon purchases. Thanks for your consideration! Link – Amazon.com: Online Shopping for Electronics, Apparel, Computers, Books, DVDs & more **

 

Sorry About The Vikings Pick, But…

I just booked the other five for wins…5-1 today (ARI, HOU, WAS, KC, SD).

Had Matt Cassel thrown less than 17 interceptions, perhaps 6-0 could have happened. I’ll take a 5-1 Sunday, and I’m passing on the game tonight because Jeffrey-Marshall are both active. If you’re playing it…Good Luck!

My next move is Monday night with the Eagles!

 

Just for fun ARI +2.5

I thought Drew Stanton looked terrific in the preseason. Of course, I know that is a different situation going into the regular-season. However, a five-point spread swing on the QB change, with a ARI-defense that might outscore NYG’s offense…and people down on Stanton (which is logical)…I’ll play 1.0 wager points for fun on ARI.

I’m rooting for a little QB anarchy in Arizona. I can’t wait to watch this one now! Stanton is not a stud, I just think he could be a decent fit for this offense that is WR heavy/laden. Stanton can run a little too.

Carson Palmer may be out for a few weeks.

Stanton + Juron Brown could be interesting (no FF play here)…the worked well in the preseason.

 

 

All Projections for Week-2 Updated (12:15pm ET)

Updated based on all the inactive reports…and estimates on the later game inactives/issues.

 

Kenbrell Thompkins Showing Inactive

Aaron Dobson could be interesting as a deep play this week

 

2014 Week-1 Dynasty-Fantasy Recap: Lions vs. Giants (9/8/2014)

Twitter @FFMetrics

 – You know it’s an exciting FF-game analysis when Larry Donnell (5 rec. for 56 yards and 1 TD on 8 targets) leads the show.

You have to kinda-sorta take Donnell semi-seriously for FF-2014 now. Why?

(1) He is starting for NYG.

(2) The TEs below him on the depth chart are terrible (in the pass game).

(3) Eli Manning is awful. Larry Donnell is a jittery NYG QB’s best friend. The one man he can clearly see standing taller than the rest over-the-middle. Eli’s falling apart, and with that, my feeling is he cannot see the field well…and shorter WRs like Cruz-Jernigan-OBJ (If he ever plays) are hard to identify in a blur. Donnell is a big targets to flip it to…and flip it he did in Week-1. Donnell FF-outscored Jimmy Graham in Week-1.

I’m not saying there is a sleeper here. I’m just noting Donnell will have some production all year probably (until Eli is replaced by Nassib). I cannot believe I am writing this. How bad of a franchise have you become NYG?

 –  A couple of below the radar ‘was I right or was I right?’ people to note here from this game, just to stroke my ego…

1) Do you give up yet? Are you ready to tell me I was right about Rueben Randle (2 rec. for 1 yard on 3 targets) all along?

2) I told you Theo Riddick (1 carry for 4 yards) was a complete hoax this summer. Make the beat writers who saw his ‘greatness’ a few months ago email you an apology.

3) We should probably wait for more games to be logged, but come on…Eric Ebron (0 rec. on 2 targets), really? Me saying flat out bust vs. every football analyst in the world telling you next Jimmy Graham or Vernon Davis…I know where you should place that bet.

He almost had a short TD early in this game…it wouldn’t have mattered. It’s inevitable that this will be a shockingly bad high draft pick flop on a Stephen Hill scale…

 – I said Golden Tate (6 rec. for 93 yards on 6 targets) was a radically stupid waste of the exorbitant money that Detroit gave him, but I didn’t say he wouldn’t be an ‘OK’ Fantasy option. The #2 WR on Detroit always has like a ‘Flex’ appeal. This looks a lot like a Nate Burleson stat line on a good day from the prior couple of years.

 – Safety Stevie Brown (9 tackles, 6 solos) looks ‘all the way back’ from injury. He’s a solid option at Safety for IDP.

 –  Check out details on Jerrell Jernigan under our ‘WR projections’ for Week-2, as ‘The WR who could come out of nowhere’.

 – Andre Williams (5 carries for 9 yards) wont get serious touches until this season starts to get out of hand…or when NYG finally admits it has.  

 – No reason to write more about Eli Manning (18-33 for 163 yards, 1 TD/2 INT). I just want to note that I hysterically laugh like a maniac listening to the excuses given by the football commentators as to why Eli is struggling: ‘The new offense is difficult to learn‘.

Hey, does anyone remember when Nick Foles didn’t win the starting QB job last year, and thus worked with the second team…and walked in cold off the bench under a new coach with the complex Chip Kelly offense with all the crazy hand signals, no huddles, etc. without any real time with the starting offense…and then took his team to the playoffs, threw for 29 TD/2 INT (including the playoffs), and had 7 TDs in one game…and almost set an NFL record for efficiency for a season? Man, does that guy suck for picking up that offense so quickly? I’m glad so many commentators point that out this season…it’s like: guys, please stop talking about ‘how great Nick Foles is’ already. Yeah, right…

Eli Manning, veteran QB, too dumb to figure out his new offense, I guess? Isn’t that what we should conclude from their words (not mine)? No love for Foles being a genius…or Mike Glennon last year, at least?

The Eli excuses sicken me when the football media are a bunch of rabid dogs tearing apart Nick Foles, Andy Dalton, Alex Smith (off the top of my head), but Eli, Andrew Luck, Jake Locker, Josh Freeman, Ryan Tannehill are all protected…I have no idea why.

Why is no one screaming ‘PROBLEM’ at the top of their lungs here with Eli in the football media? There isn’t even a peep about him being the problem. Why is there not a raging QB controversy, or a speculation on a QB change…like there was at half-time of the Eagles-Jags game Week-1?

Ryan Nassib, please contact Antone Smith to ask what bad things you’ve had to have done in a previous life to get you put in NFL purgatory.

 

– R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here: The Machine via FFM

 **If you enjoy the free content on Fantasy Football Metrics.com please consider making your next Amazon purchase through our website/link partnership with Amazon. You’re going to buy something at Amazon anyway, there is no extra charge — help give us a little love! Feel free to save/bookmark this link in your favorites and you will have it for all future Amazon purchases. Thanks for your consideration! Link – Amazon.com: Online Shopping for Electronics, Apparel, Computers, Books, DVDs & more **

 

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