Fantasy Football Metrics

The Miami Dolphins Just Made My Dynasty Day…

Twitter @FFMetrics 

I have had my head somewhat buried in the sand on all these NFL players being released this week. Most of the names being dropped by teams, you or I don’t really care about from a Dynasty perspective.

Like you, I look at the name, wonder for about a half-second if I care and move on. The only thing, until today, that caught my attention was Steven Jackson being dumped. Not that I didn’t see it coming, or care, I’m just amused by the Roto notes and Dynasty GMs who think their ship has come in on Devonta Freeman. I’m pretty sure these were the same guys who held Jacquizz Rodgers, waiting for his ascension to superstardom over the likes of Michael Turner and SJax.

You do know, that I was the one man in FF-America who said that was Horse S— the entire time, right? You’re welcome. 

FYI, if you own Devonta Freeman—you have to sell him ‘high’ right now, before Atlanta adds more RBs via free agency and the Draft. Heck, they are trying to re-sign Antone Smith. Freeman is not a franchise RB…he’s not even a starting RB.

So what happened with the Miami Dolphins that has me running to my computer? Disclaimer—this Dolphin-based excitement may not mean anything because, like being anti-Jacquizz day-one, I am alone on this upcoming theory…and have been yet to be proven as right on it as I should be.

**Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics IDP Dynasty (three-year) projections now exist on the Fantasy Football Management technology: “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here (link): The Machine via FFM

 

It was a “Usual Suspects” epiphany moment today…

There I was minding my own business. Thumbing through the day’s football news on my iPhone, and it hit me. My Starbucks Grande White Mocha Latte slipped from my hand in slow motion, and tumbled to the ground spilling its nectar everywhere.

How could I have not seen this before?

The signs were all there. Was I just too blind or too stupid…or too distracted with ‘Play The Draft’ to notice it?  (link) FFM ‘Play The Draft’ 2015—Enter the contest link

It’s such great news…in my mind.

Long time FFM-ers, you’re going to roll your eyes, but hear me out…

Mike Wallace battling with management, and reportedly on the trading block (he’s going to get dumped, one way or the other).

Brian Hartline released.

I should have sensed it right then and there.

Then, today…my Kobayashi moment. Coffee descending to the ground. Brandon Gibson was released!

You know what this means!

The Miami Dolphins starting WRs for 2015 are…

Jarvis Landry, and…

RISHARD MATTHEWS!!!!!!!!!!!!!

At least until they sign four free agent WRs, and draft six other WRs.

A sign of hope…for a moment anyway.

Take heed—Rishard Matthews is a star WR waiting to happen.

If you care to indulge (below)…here’s a tape of most all Matthews’ catches in 2013. Including his 11 catch, 120 yards, and 2 TD night on MNF against Tampa Bay. Furthermore, to note—Matthews dropped one pass in 2013. Look at some of these catches he made in 2013—in traffic, taking big hits, balls thrown off target. Someone, anyone in the NFL, please trade for this guy…you won’t have just a useful WR, you’ll have a star.

**See the 2015 NFL Draft and 2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft, like never before with our Moneyball-style scouting reports and rankings. LEARN WHY Rishard Matthews is great, and why you should have seen the Jacquizz Rodgers flop well ahead of time in our 2012-2014 archive reports as well. Go to www.collegefootballmetrics.com **

 

 

R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst and writer for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. He is also a lead writer for ‘Play The Draft.com’. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here: The Machine via FFM

 **If you enjoy the free content on Fantasy Football Metrics.com please consider making your next Amazon purchase through our website/link partnership with Amazon. You’re going to buy something at Amazon anyway, there is no extra charge — help give us a little love! Feel free to save/bookmark this link in your favorites and you will have it for all future Amazon purchases. Thanks for your consideration! Link — Amazon.com: Online Shopping for Electronics, Apparel, Computers, Books, DVDs & more **

 

NFL Mock Draft 4.01 Updated, Posted…

Twitter @FFMetrics

All of our Mock Drafts post on College Football Metrics.com.

Click here for the latest (Post-Combine): 2015 Mock Draft list 1.0-4.01

 

‘Play The Draft’ Market Analysis For Friday, February 27, 2015

Twitter @FFMetrics

PWILK17 will not give up the lead in our FFM-Contest on ‘Play The Draft’. He took over during the NFL Combine, and he will not yield it. In fact, he was the #1 gainer overnight with a +$400K+ pop. He’s the ‘team to beat’ as we head into the weekend.

I have three goals today:

1) Improve my PTD-positions, and take over the top spot in the FFM-Contest

2) Post my Amari Cooper and Devin Smith scouting reports on College Football Metrics.com

3) Watch ‘Birdman’

 

I have been constantly thwarted on goals #1 and #3 all week.

Hopefully, your Friday to-do’s will be completed…unlike mine, I’m sure.  

Good Luck on PTD today!

Look for our weekly PTD contest to be announced, and starting next week!

(link) FFM ‘Play The Draft’ 2015—Enter the contest link    (link) FFM ‘Play The Draft’ 2015 prize package

 

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‘Play The Draft’ Market Analysis For Friday, February 27, 2015

*Note: The acronym ‘FRX’ refers to ‘Play The Draft’s’ proprietary algorithms which take all the national Mock Drafts and private scouting input to develop a moving average on prospect sentiment every day. The FRX drives the prospect’s price within the ‘Play The Draft’ contest.

 

As the week comes to an end, we’ve seen a nice wave of post-Combine Mock Drafts posting in the past few days. A lot of the up/down action is predictable. However, there are a couple of unique moves be made by high profile Mock Drafters…moves that might be ‘a thing’ if other Mock Drafters follow.

You may know by now, the term ‘Mock Draft’ is an old Greek word meaning: Everyone sees everything the exact same way. So when a national figure makes a bold move in a Mock Draft—they usually set off a domino effect of copycat moves…occasionally they are not copied, and rather burned at the stake.

Here are some of the unique moves I see gaining some traction in certain Mock Draft circles the last few days:

 

In top-32s: Wake Forest CB  Kevin Johnson  (42.7 FRX, $944K current valuation, -4.8% last seven days)

Todd McShay just projected Johnson as his #14 overall, and a few others including him in their top-30. I think Johnson will start picking up some momentum from here in ‘Play The Draft’, as I think he will be included in more and more top-32s ahead. The talent is there, and he quietly had a great Combine workout.

 

Out of top-32s: Iowa DT Carl Davis (35.3 FRX, $1.06M current valuation, +15.7% last seven days)

Finally, someone started asking the question, “…but can he play?”

I didn’t see what the majority saw at the Senior Bowl with Davis. I couldn’t believe he was a ‘made man’ coming out of Mobile. Reality is starting to set in. Davis was a chic #20-30 projection for some leading up to the NFL Combine, but post-Combine we see him getting left off most top-32s, or listed at #32 at best.

His tape isn’t that great, and he didn’t do anything special at the NFL Combine. He’s likely to disappear from top-32s completely in a few weeks.

 

In top-32s: Florida OT D.J. Humphries  (54.2 FRX, $767K current valuation, +21.3% last seven days)

The PTD-Community smells this opportunity too. Humphries has raced up to 19.0% ownership among all PTD-portfolios, and his value has spiked +21%+ this week.

You could barely find Humphries among the top-32 pre-Combine. Now, he’s popping up among the top-25. NFL.com’s Charles Davis just projected him #9 overall.

I thought Oregon OT Jake Fisher deserved this ‘OT blessing from the Combine’ bump ahead of Humphries, but D.J. has the ‘love’…and Fisher has yet to catch similar Mock Draft heat.

 

 

Out of top-32s: Mississippi State ILB Benardrick McKinney (32.3 FRX, $1.25M current valuation, +2.2% last seven days)

McKinney is currently the highest rated ILB in ‘Play The Draft’, ranked #27 overall…but not for long. He didn’t butcher his Combine workout, but he didn’t impress as much as UCLA ILB Eric Kendricks (33.6 FRX, $944K current valuation, -4.8% last seven days) did.

McKinney is starting to drop from most people’s top ILB prospect, to not in their top-3 ILB’s…and out of their top-32 projections in Mock Drafts for sure.

 

In top-32s: UConn CB Byron Jones (100.2 FRX, $545K current valuation, +21.1% last seven days)

I’m already on record here as believing Jones is going to be a universal 1st-rounder, and possibly makes a push towards becoming the top CB off the board.

NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah has been ahead of most Jones to begin with, and now lists him as his #20 in his 3.0 Mock Draft. Jeremiah is alone on this among the major Mock Drafters right now, but I think many are going to follow in the weeks ahead.

 

Out of top-32s: Washington OLB Shaq Thompson  (29.3 FRX, $1.4M current valuation, -12.3% last seven days)

There is an absolutely unfair phenomenon that occurs at the NFL Combine…you know that event that doesn’t really matter to old-school football guy. “Who cares how fast they run?”, and the “Underwear Olympics,” etc. are the smarky statements used to belittle the NFL Combine. “The NFL Combine doesn’t matter”…except that almost the entire Draft board is changed for every analyst after the event.

I do agree with old-school football guy…it is kind of stupid in some senses. The unfair phenomenon perpetrated on prospects by Mock Drafters post-Combine is: If you ran a slow 40-time ‘live’, and the announcers expressed ‘tisk-tisk’ on the spot…then your prospect coffin was nailed shut. If a few hours later, the official time is posted, and it was discovered an error was made ‘live’ (and there weren’t as many radical errors on the ‘live’ times this year, as last), and you really weren’t a disappointment…it doesn’t matter. First opinion got locked in. “Final answer” before the official results…apparently.

Shaq ran a 4.72 on his first 40-time, and a single tear rolled down my cheek. I thought he was faster than that. His second run: 4.69…better, but not so hot. Analyst’s ‘tisk-tisked’ Thompson throughout the LB drills, and that was that.

Later, we discovered he actually ran a 4.64 40-time…and ‘yes’ that slight difference matters. Had Shaq been shown to run the 4.64 in his ‘live’ attempts, I think the announcers would have professed, “OK, that’s not bad” versus bemoaning disappointment at his 4.7+. He got written off after his ‘live’ 40-time events…and hasn’t recovered. He’s gone from sleeper top-25 pick, to out of high-profile top-32 projections in Mock Drafts.

I think Thompson will have a prospect revival later, but for now he is PTD-toxic.

 

Good Luck with your ‘Play The Draft’ trades today!

 

 

R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst and writer for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. He is also a lead writer for ‘Play The Draft.com’. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.”

 

 

‘Play The Draft’ Market Analysis For Thursday, February 26, 2015

Twitter @FFMetrics

I just got passed by BONGOANDTHESTC’S, and have fallen into 4th-place in the FFM-Contest. Congrats to BONGO—he’s almost at a +$2M gain for the week. However, PWILK17 is still the fund to beat. He’s been on top all week…but with little breathing room right now.

It’s getting tight at the top…four of us with $14M+ portfolios, and several now crossing over into the $13M mark. The numbers are accelerating, so still plenty of time for folks $1-2M off the pace to close ground quickly. Also, don’t forget—on Draft day the accounts will settle up as the actual picks are made, and it will rock all portfolios. If you think you are falling ‘out of it’ today, you’re not. Stay close, and kill on D-day…that theory can/will win the contest.

I’m working on the finishing touches of the first batch of WR reports to hit at College Football Metrics.com. Draftniks and Dynasty League GMs prepping for 2015 Rookie Drafts—get ready for some action!

Good Luck with your PTD moves today!

(link) FFM ‘Play The Draft’ 2015—Enter the contest link    (link) FFM ‘Play The Draft’ 2015 prize package

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‘Play The Draft’ Market Analysis For Thursday, February 26, 2015

*Note: The acronym ‘FRX’ refers to ‘Play The Draft’s’ proprietary algorithms which take all the national Mock Drafts and private scouting input to develop a moving average on prospect sentiment every day. The FRX drives the prospect’s price within the ‘Play The Draft’ contest.

 

We all have a few more days to pocket PTD-cash on Kevin White and Vic Beasley, but then what? I began thinking about that very question last night. Where’s the next ‘Pot of Gold’ coming from in ‘Play The Draft’? The eventual winner of current, and upcoming ‘Play The Draft’ contests is the one who sees the big moves ahead of the crowd. What is it that will launch a ‘big move’ upcoming?

The NFL Combine always throws new curveballs into Mock Drafts, and we’re all seeing that this week as the readjusting occurs. High-profile QBs can have their draft stock radically altered on a highly publicized Pro Day gaffe in March. Outside of that, there is no single event like the NFL Combine that shakes Mock Draft boards to their core. What’s will change Mock Draft minds ahead is going to be more insider info from loose lips/contacts within organizations? What’s going to change Mock Draft boards radically in the next month+ is more ‘reality’ from the inside, as we start to move away from fan-boy ‘matchmaking’ of higher-profile prospects to supposed ‘team need’.

When ‘reality’ strikes it will bring us names outside the current top-15+, and will slowly push them into the top 10-15. Our job in ‘Play The Draft’ will be to invest in those names ahead of the ‘reality’ curve. I looked over the current ‘Play The Draft’ FRX rankings, and noted three players as ones who might be the ones to launch into the top 10-15 in the weeks to come:

 

#1) Kentucky DE Alvin ‘Bud’ Dupree (16.4 FRX, $1.78M current valuation, -5.6%)

Dupree is not necessarily a ‘long-shot’, as he is sitting just outside the PTD top-15. What I’m more surprised by is that he is falling or ‘stuck in gear’ in post-NFL Combine Mock Drafts.

How a 6’4”, 270-pound man runs a 4.56 with a 42” vertical and an 11’6” Broad Jump…and no one really cares all that much is shocking to me. Dupree showed as much/more athletic skills than Vic Beasley, while carrying 20+ more pounds. Dupree was a more athletic version of Dante Fowler. Dupree showed to be athletically superior to Randy Gregory.

In an NFL that is craving big bodies that are athletic—here’s an elite NFL body on display with Dupree. There are on-field performance questions, but they somehow seem to hurt Dupree more than Gregory (as an example). The Pro-Gregory argument is generally: “He’s hit and miss on tape, but boy the athleticism.” Ummm…Dupree is about as tall as Gregory, but 30+ pounds thicker, and just measured off-the-charts athletically…and definitely more athletic than Gregory.

All that, and I see Mock Drafts in the last few days with Dupree projected #20+, and Gregory still in the top-10. I don’t get it. In 3-4 weeks, we could see Dupree as an ‘it’ guy…a ‘late-riser’ in March because of the athleticism numbers.

**Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics IDP Dynasty (three-year) projections now exist on the Fantasy Football Management technology: “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here (link): The Machine via FFM

 

 

#2) UCLA QB Brett Hundley (35.4 FRX, $1.05M current valuation, +9.4%)

Hundley is sitting outside the top-32 in most all Mock Drafts, but his ascension into the top-15 is clear to me.

Hundley is the 3rd-best QB in this Draft for most people. You have the Winston-Mariota top tier, then Hundley several paces behind…and then no one, legitimately. You get some occasional Bryce Petty, but Hundley is the true #3 for the universe. Because Hundley is talented, and because the QB position is so critical that it warrants being ‘over drafted’ or ‘reached for’, he should be in the 1st-round of every Mock Draft right now (but he isn’t).

Here’s how he will move into the top 10-15 ahead:

It will start with more and more Hundley-Eagles matchmaking at #20 in upcoming Mocks. As a Philly-Tennessee trade is not announced, it leaves Philly sitting at #20 with Marcus Mariota not falling that far for the Eagles to snatch. Because the Philly-Mariota theory is 51% ‘Oregon + Chip + Mariota = love’, and 49% ‘the football media hates Nick Foles’…if Mock Drafters cannot jam Mariota to Philly…well, then the Eagles have to get a QB to replace the scourge that is Nick Foles—the QB who is 15-4 in his last 19 NFL starts, and almost broke NFL efficiency records off the bench in 2013. That proven guy has to go—makes all the sense in the world(?).

Hundley mocked at #20 to Philly will be the default anti-Foles message from the football powers that be.

Once people get used to Hundley as a 1st-round QB, then you have other NFL scenarios that Hundley makes sense for—situations where the media is also taking an anti-current QB tone. After being the football analyst’s ‘love child’, now Johnny Manziel must go a year later…and Cleveland picks #12 and #19. Hundley makes ten-zillion percent more sense to go to Cleveland than Philly. You will see Hundley at #20 first…and then either #12 or #19 Cleveland after that. There are already rumors of maybe St. Louis at #10.

It will take another few weeks, but Hundley is going to be a top-20 projection for sure, but potentially could be a shock top-10 Mock Draft projection…sooner rather than later. A move to the top-10 is worth approx. +$1.4M to your PTD-portfolio from today’s value.

**See the 2015 NFL Draft and 2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft, like never before with our Moneyball-style scouting reports and rankings. Go to www.collegefootballmetrics.com **

 

 

#3) LSU CB Jalen Collins  (32.8 FRX, $1.14M current valuation, +18.4%)

Trae Waynes had such momentum going into the NFL Combine, and his 4.32 40-time there seems like it would cement him as the best CB prospect in the NFL Draft, no? Group-think already thought he was far and away the top guy, so what could change after an impressive 40-time?

I’d like to think analysts will wake up and realize that Waynes is a flawed top CB prospect. NFL-worthy, but not ‘best in class’. He is thin-framed. He tested poorly on the agility drills (relative to top CBs). More importantly, his tape has holes in it. At the same time, there are several terrific CB prospects being totally overshadowed by Waynes. Jalen Collins is one of them.

Collins is an inch+ taller than Waynes with an extra 15-pounds of frame. Collins also has arms and hands that measure an inch+ longer than Waynes. Collins is the ‘plus sized’/Richard Sherman CB prospect that NFL teams are supposedly craving. Waynes is faster, but Collins also fast (4.48) and is more agile…and physically bigger in every way.

Waynes may not fall in Mock Draft rankings at all, and he is a screaming ‘PTD-buy’ right now, but Collins (or some other CB) has to move up in this Draft. Collins is starting to make that move…and he may not stop until he is projected higher than Waynes in a few weeks.

 

Good Luck with your ‘Play The Draft’ trades today!

 

R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst and writer for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. He is also a lead writer for ‘Play The Draft.com’. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.”

 

 

 

What To Do With Julius Thomas, and ‘Hot’ Virgil Green Talk…

Twitter @FFMetrics

I’m getting several questions on Julius Thomas—questions from very nervous Dynasty owners. Some want to try to sell, and cut any potential losses ahead from a change of teams. Others wonder if Virgil Green (long-time FFM enigma) suddenly has FF-value. Allow me to answer these questions for your pre-Free Agency Dynasty planning…

 

Julius Thomas

The more and more that I listen to people discuss it, the more likely they think it is that Julius Thomas is gone—and that’s being reported on various websites as well. I’m still a skeptic on a change taking place.

I believe as long as Denver has Peyton Manning, they have to feel they have a shot at a Super Bowl this upcoming season. No Peyton…no hope. The Broncos have one last Super Bowl ‘hurrah’ with Peyton, and the smartest thing they can do is franchise tag Julius Thomas to give Peyton that TE weapon. If you have the following logic, as head of the Broncos: The only way to win a Super Bowl is with an awesome Peyton Manning—then you want him to have a host of weapons. There’s no time to fool around.

The Broncos are set at WR for Peyton: They will sign Demaryius Thomas to a longer-term deal. They have Emmanuel Sanders under contract again. They have cap space saved from Wes Welker hitting free agency—and they can find cheap Welker-a-likes all over. They have Cody Latimer waiting in the wings.

The Broncos are set at RB for Peyton: Three starter-level RBs in-house. They have diversity of skill, and depth at RB.

You cannot replace Julius Thomas in the  2015 NFL Draft or via free agency. Even if you suspected a ‘match.com’ like Rob Housler—there’s that whole thing with Peyton’s ‘comfortableness’ with a receiver, etc. If Peyton is your hope, then you want to make him comfortable, and you do so by bringing back the same cast of characters.

You address O-Line needs via the draft as needed.

You do the best you can with the defense. Again, this is a Peyton thing…the defense you hope does well, but Peyton ‘must’ do well—or it won’t matter anyway. Give up 35 points a game, but set up Peyton to score 36. You may scoff at that, and I may scoff at that, but if you have Peyton—that’s the only realistic plan you can strive for in order to win the next Super Bowl…with a one-year Peyton-clock ticking.

Julius Thomas, I think in the end, will be back.

 

Let’s say he isn’t…

You’re somewhat screwed…as a Dynasty owner of Julius.

Typically, the active teams in free agency…active for the big-ticket items…are teams that are awful, and are grasping at straws (a la Eric Decker to the Jets in 2014). If Julius Thomas lands on Jacksonville, as is a leading rumor…that’s FF-trouble. Blake Bortles is a black hole that will suck all things out of FF-existence—including Allen Robinson and/or a returning Justin Blackmon.  I have said it a million-times: Vernon Davis on the New Orleans Saints with Drew Brees the last 5-7 years would have made him one of the all-time greats in TE output, but on the 49ers with a cavalcade of QB messes, he’s ‘just another guy’ at TE in Fantasy—a guy you have hope in, but rarely see it fulfilled. Rob Gronkowski drafted by the Jags…he becomes quasi Scott Chandler in our minds today. Thomas dies (for FF) in Jacksonville, Buffalo, etc.—from the perspective of top 1-2-3 producer at TE. He goes from elite Fantasy performer…to ‘just another top-10 guy’, maybe.

Remember, I said you are “SOMEWHAT screwed.” I didn’t say, “TOTALLY screwed.” If you hold on to Thomas, and he does get inked by the Jags—you and I would see that as total devastation, because we know better…The Computer already foretold us of the sucktitude of Blake Bortles last January. However, keep in mind, society at large thinks Bortles = Roethlisberger. You may cry in a beer that you’ve lost your productive Fantasy TE going to J-ville, but you should be able to sell him off at a decent price if he lands in some crap hole…because the mainstream will do your bidding. They’ll swoon with delight for E.J. Manuel or Geno Smith or whomever that they now they have Julius—and they’ll live happily ever after as a dynamic-duo.  

You’ll at least be able to sell that nonsense to someone in your league…I would think. If so, then you’re best to hold Julius, see where the chips land, and then react. You never know, maybe the Packers make your dreams come true…

**Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics IDP Dynasty (three-year) projections now exist on the Fantasy Football Management technology: “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here (link): The Machine via FFM

 

 

Virgil Green

Like many of you, I look at Virgil Green’s NFL Combine data from 2011 and see a potential star.

I also look at the last four-years of his NFL output, and see a giant pile of ‘jack squat’.

I’d like to apply ‘Antone Smith logic’ and say, “If he just gets a chance…” However, it is worse than ‘Antone Smith logic’. Consider, that in 2014 Julius Thomas did get hurt, and he missed some games and a lot of snaps. From Weeks 12-16, Julius Thomas was a ghost…and yet Virgil Green caught one pass on one-target in that span.

In Week 17, he caught three passes and scored a TD…with Brock Osweiler in junk time.

Why would anyone think Green is a breakout candidate if Julius Thomas bails? His own team has done nothing with him for four-years (as a receiver). If there was something here, anything…we should have seen a glimpse by now.

I’m all for a Virgil Green cheap lottery ticket play…his size/athleticism is a moth-to-flame for me, but ‘Antone Smith logic’ dictates this is me howling at the moon. If his team doesn’t see it—it doesn’t matter if I do.

It’s worth a cheap gamble, but don’t get your hopes up too high if Julius leaves.

**See the 2015 NFL Draft and 2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft, like never before with our Moneyball-style scouting reports and rankings. Go to www.collegefootballmetrics.com **

 

 

R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst and writer for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. He is also a lead writer for ‘Play The Draft.com’. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here: The Machine via FFM

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‘Play The Draft’ Market Analysis For Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Twitter @FFMetrics

It’s a pretty salty day in ‘Play The Draft’ when you bank $500K+ overnight, and don’t move up one spot in the standings!

PWILK17 is still holding on to his (shrinking) lead in the FFM-Contest, but I’m ready to start getting serious again, so I apologize to you all for what’s about to happen.

Two things to note on “Play The Draft’ contests upcoming:

1) The ‘heavy hitting’ PTD-Contests are about to get announced–the ones with the sweet prize packs, so stay tuned to jump into them if you wish. You can join as many contests as you like, and everyone begins fresh at the $12M startpoint when they join. 

2) The FFM Contest is an early starter (began weeks ago), so by the time the majority of people starting playing PTD (March and April), the FFM-Contest will be a lost cause for them. For some in the FFM-Contest now, things are looking a little dire. I think we will be announcing a weekly prize in the FFM-Contest starting in March for the best portfolio gainer of the week–to give more people a target to shoot for.

Me running away with my own contest, as will soon occur, will be soul crushing…so I wish to emerge from my balcony and pronounce ‘let them eat cake’ to all of you. More details in a few days on when that will start, and what you’ll win, etc. 

…and, “Yes.” I was thwarted, by life, in my effort to watch ‘Birdman’ on my quasi-day off yesterday. I plan to hit it Friday, and do a review here soon after–because so many have had an interest on whether it would be a waste of their time as a watch. 

(link) FFM ‘Play The Draft’ 2015—Enter the contest link   

(link) FFM ‘Play The Draft’ 2015 prize package

 

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‘Play The Draft’ Market Analysis For Wednesday, February 25, 2015

*Note: The acronym ‘FRX’ refers to ‘Play The Draft’s’ proprietary algorithms which take all the national Mock Drafts and private scouting input to develop a moving average on prospect sentiment every day. The FRX drives the prospect’s price within the ‘Play The Draft’ contest.

 

There was some serious price action overnight in ‘Play The Draft”, as the NFL Combine fallout starts to grip Mock Drafts across the fruited plains. Some folks woke up to their accounts popping $500K+ last night. This rapid rise might happen again for some of you in the next few days. If you want to join the ‘half-a-mill in a day’ club within the next couple of weeks, you HAVE to own these three players…and just sit on them until you ring up the proper profits…

 

‘Must own’ #1: Kevin White

Kevin White (9.1 FRX, $2.4M current valuation, +6.4% last seven days) is a ‘must own’, and 29.8% of you do now. It should be 50% tomorrow. If you want to ‘stay in the game’ in the ‘FRX Insiders’ contest—you have to own White (and don’t worry, more PTD-contests with juicy prizes are about to start—stay tuned).

His NFL Combine performance is arguably the most talked about from my sampling of discussions Monday-Tuesday with people at the NFL Combine, or who witnessed it on TV. The ‘talking heads’ have picked up that ball and run with it. The momentum was already swinging toward White over Amari Cooper (5.6 FRX, $3.3M current valuation, -7.2% last seven days) in some Mock Drafts…it’s about to switch to most all Mock Drafts.

Cooper didn’t do anything wrong at the NFL Combine; he just cannot keep up with the white-hot White. They are likely to switch places in PTD over the next two weeks as Mock Drafters push White #4 to Oakland (which I still do not understand why Oakland would take a WR that high in era of over-supply of WRs flooding the market…but it is Oakland), which defaults Cooper to fall to either to #6 to the Jets for some and #11 to the Vikings or #12 to Cleveland for other mockers.

White moving to a universal #4 in most Mock Drafts, and likely running about a 5.0 FRX (like Cooper has for most of PTD), will mean +$900K gains ahead with White…and potentially the reverse for Cooper.

 

‘Must own’ #2 Clemson DE Vic Beasley

Vic Beasley (9.1 FRX, $2.4M current valuation, +6.4% last seven days) is very likely to snatch the spots of one, and possibly two highly ranked PTD defensive prospects. If he surpasses both in Mock Drafts ahead, and I think he might, he will book a cool $1M+ over the next week or two.

Beasley is sitting as an FRX 11.8 (Mock Draft averages, nationally). He will likely swap places with Missouri DE Shane Ray (7.3 FRX, $2.8M current valuation, -4.6% last seven days) around the #7 spot.

Beasley could also topple Nebraska DE Randy Gregory (5.3 FRX, $3.4M current valuation, -5.3% last seven days), and move among the top-5 in many mocks ahead.

At the NFL Combine, Beasley was terrific—making a great case as a top-5 prospect. Gregory was assumed to be the great athlete/top-5 guy, and he showed well, but was more human than god—athletically.

Ray’s crime was not participating in the Combine activities (due to injury), and that usually hurts prospects—when we can’t see them, in order to fawn over or castigate them. Ray dropped -$105K in ‘Play The Draft’ last night. He may not fall a bunch more, but he’s likely not going much higher either.

 

 

‘Must own’ #3 Michigan State CB Trae Waynes

Trae Waynes (17.1 FRX, $1.7M current valuation, -2.1% last seven days) was already everyone’s top CB prospect, by a wide margin. He then ran a 4.32 at the NFL Combine, and cemented that position.

When you’re the top CB prospect for everyone in the free world, by a wide margin, then in NFL-economic terms–you cannot be a lowly 17.1 FRX. The top CB in an NFL Draft warrants a top-10 pick status. If Waynes moves to the top-10 in Mocks upcoming, then his PTD-value has $700K+ gains in the future.

I am suspect of Waynes in my initial studies. He is a very thin-framed CB who, in my initial tape watching session, didn’t blow me away with his cover skills. I believe, as insane person, that Waynes is riding a psychological (and thus emotional, not studied) wave of an affinity for all things Michigan State defense. I’m not sure how allowing 39.5 points per game to the four bowl teams MSU faced in 2014 equals ‘awesome defense’, but you heard it all college season 2014, and people still say it now. Quite frankly, they weren’t that good. Bryce Petty, Marcus Mariota, and J.T. Barrett had no real issues facing them—a.k.a. the types of QBs that Waynes will face at the next level. Waynes is an NFL-worthy player, but is he THEE top CB? Not in our rankings upcoming at College Football Metrics.com. Maybe, not even among our top-3 CB prospects for the draft.

…he’ll still be a top-10 pick, in reality, however…and thus a ‘sweet’ play for PTD ahead.

 

Good Luck with your ‘Play The Draft’ trades today!

 

 

R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst and writer for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. He is also a lead writer for ‘Play The Draft.com’. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.”

 

‘Play The Draft’ Market Analysis For Tuesday, February 24, 2015

Twitter @FFMetrics

I finally had a good morning in PTD, but it looks like most everyone else did too. It will probably be one more day before I start my ascension to my rightful throne atop the FFM-Contest. Four straight, long days of NFL Combine has me weary. Today, will mostly be a day off…to do ‘honey-dos’, and I’m finally going to watch ‘Birdman’ unless someone thwarts that plan. 

PWILK17 keeps taking advantage of my kindness, as he leads us for yet another day. Drink it all in while you can.

You may also notice that the giant Death Star approaching at #2 is none other than the “Prophet of PTD”, Xavier Cromartie. He’s telling you the Mock Draft future over at College Football Metrics.com–his 4.0 Mock Draft, post-Combine effect, posted on CFM yesterday…if you didn’t catch it. Also, the first non-QB reports just hit this am…and the flurry will continue all week. One report upcoming later this week is going to knock your socks off, potentially. Well, most of my reports tend to remove socks…compared to the mainstream, but this particular one will be ‘something’, I think. 

Still plenty of time to join and win, as it is about to get very volatile the next few days and weeks. Good luck on your PTD moves today!

(link) FFM ‘Play The Draft’ 2015—Enter the contest link   

(link) FFM ‘Play The Draft’ 2015 prize package

 

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‘Play The Draft’ Market Analysis For Tuesday, February 24, 2015

*Note: The acronym ‘FRX’ refers to ‘Play The Draft’s’ proprietary algorithms which take all the national Mock Drafts and private scouting input to develop a moving average on prospect sentiment every day. The FRX drives the prospect’s price within the ‘Play The Draft’ contest.

 

No doubt you have been inundated with the NFL Combine ‘winners and losers’ to start this workweek, so here’s more of it from me…

We’ll take a different twist on the NFL Combine ‘winners and losers’ by looking at it from a ‘Play The Draft’ perspective. Here are three players who I think have some nice PTD-upside ahead, and three others who are likely headed down hard based off the NFL Combine activity…

Oh, and I’m not going to insult your intelligence by naming Kevin White (WVa) or Vic Beasley…you already know that. I’ll try to mix it up a touch…

 

UPSIDE: Oregon OT Jake Fisher  (66.6 FRX, $642K current valuation, +6.0% last seven days)

Fisher, arguably, had the best NFL Combine of any Offensive Lineman. Prior to the Combine, you typically saw Fisher only in the 2nd or 3rd-round on Mock Drafts (if that). Now you might see him in the late 1st-round soon. A possible two-bagger here, if he moves from his current 66 FRX to the low 30s. He may even shock some by hitting the top-20 or 25 overall.

 

 

DOWNSIDE: Wisconsin RB Melvin Gordon  (24.0 FRX, $1.53M current valuation, +3.9% last seven days)

If I told you to go get excited about a 215-pound RB prospect who ran a 4.5+ 40-time with average agility times (especially considering the unnamed RB is a finesse runner and not a power runner), you would not get all that excited. However, many of you were pre-sold on Gordon = Jamaal Charles, so you cannot shake the image.

After the NFL Combine, the only thing Gordon and Charles have in common is dreadlocks and wearing the same jersey number. After that, Charles has a far superior speed and agility times…and Gordon is just mediocre across the board athletically (NFL-wise) by comparison to Charles. Gordon may not fall a ton in FRX, but he’s not going any higher after a bit of a letdown for ‘Gordon-ites’ with his Combine times.

The world is ‘foiled again’ on Wisconsin runners headed to the NFL!

 

 

UPSIDE: UCLA DE Owamagbe Odighizuwa (45.4 FRX, $905K current valuation, +6.4% last seven days)

I’m not sure how long it will take, but I Odighizuwa is headed into the 1st-round. My shock statement would be—he might start appearing in some top-15s in a few weeks. I think this one will take a little time to breathe, but he likely slow rolls into a fast roll towards being included in everyone’s Mock Draft top-20 in the near future.

I wish he didn’t do so well, because I really do not want to have to type his name ever again.

 

 

DOWNSIDE: Nebraska DE Randy Gregory  (5.5 FRX, $3.43M current valuation, -5.7% last seven days)

He didn’t bust at the NFL Combine or anything; it’s just that a few big-name defenders did very well, and they are going to invade Gregory’s standing among the top 3-5. Gregory is going to fall, and may fall right out of the top-10 soon…and a million dollars of PTD-value may escape with it.

I wish I had figured that out before I took a couple hundred thousand in hits on him in the prior week leading up to his workout. At least, I avoided the -$82K spanking last night.

 

 

UPSIDE: UConn CB Byron Jones  (100.8 FRX, $473K current valuation, +3.2% last seven days)

…and a ‘star was born’.

No prospect may be launched as much from the 2015 NFL Combine as Jones, and he didn’t even run the 40-yard dash (coming of injury). However, what he did participate in may turn the Draft board on its ear at Cornerback…and overall. He set a recent record for the Broad Jump (12’3”). He also had a surreal 44.5” Vertical. He did participate in the agility drills…and blew them away.

Yesterday, Jones was owned 0.3% on ‘Play The Draft’. Today, that number spiked to 9.3%…if that tells you anything.

I think we might be looking at a player who was nearly invisible before Monday that may go on to become a 1st-round CB…possibly the first one off the board ultimately. It won’t happen immediately because he was not on anyone’s radar, so scouts are going to be hitting the tape on him hard the next 24-48 hours. Upon their further review, a 6’1” CB that is a physical freak with talent. He’s listed as a CB, but started college as a Safety—he is high end in coverage, and physical as a hitter.

We all may be shocked how highly Jones will be taken on Draft day. His NFL prospectus is a straight line up. However, the Mocks may take a few weeks to reflect it.

 

DOWNSIDE: Missouri DE Shane Ray  (7.0 FRX, $2.86M current valuation, -1.7% last seven days)

Similar to Gregory, I don’t think Ray hurt his stock, but he didn’t help it either by not being able to participate due to injury. His non-activity at the Combine mixed with other big-name defenders showing well means Ray is likely to fall because he’ll get squeezed by others rising up. He may be headed out of the top-10 universally ahead in Mock Drafts—that kind of drop would cause a $500K+ erosion in PTD-value.

 

 

Good Luck with your ‘Play The Draft’ trades today!

 

 

R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst and writer for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. He is also a lead writer for ‘Play The Draft.com’. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.”

 

‘Play The Draft’ Market Analysis For Monday, February 23, 2015

Twitter @FFMetrics

My slow, steady descent from the top of the FFM-Contest on ‘Play The Draft’ continues—as predicted…by me. One more day of NFL Combine activity, and then I hope I can get my PTD-head screwed on straight.

Congrats to PWILK17 for holding on to the top spot again today!

You may have noticed that I was also passed by Xavier Cromartie…our new #2 in the contest—with a bullet. He is also dominating the FRX Insiders contest now. I told you. He is Mock Draft witchcraft.

Xavier’s also practicing his craft for you—as he generously produces three-round Mock Drafts as often as he has NFL Draft information from whatever spirits he conjures up to get it. His post-Combine Mock Draft 4.0 is projected to debut today—soon after the Combine closes out for the DBs. Look for that here on CFM later today.

**See the 2015 NFL Draft and 2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft, like never before with our Moneyball-style scouting reports and rankings. Go to www.collegefootballmetrics.com **

 

Also, one more day of me ranting about the NFL Combine happenings over at CFM all day, starting at 9am ET until whenever.

Good Luck in the FFM-Contest today!

…I’m talking to me, not you.

I need luck quickly, because I’m getting slaughtered the last 3-4 days. My PTD-portfolios are seeing more red than Bruce Willis and John Malcovich.

…some of you might get that last line a little later than others.

…again, I’m punch drunk with Combine stuff over here.

(link) FFM ‘Play The Draft’ 2015—Enter the contest link   

(link) FFM ‘Play The Draft’ 2015 prize package

 

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‘Play The Draft’ Market Analysis For Monday, February 23, 2015

*Note: The acronym ‘FRX’ refers to ‘Play The Draft’s’ proprietary algorithms which take all the national Mock Drafts and private scouting input to develop a moving average on prospect sentiment every day. The FRX drives the prospect’s price within the ‘Play The Draft’ contest.

 

Monday is the last day of the NFL Combine workouts, and we get our final data on Cornerback and Safety prospects. With that, let’s take a look at the big story lines atop the current PTD-rankings, the PTD-most owned, and the sleepers to watch according to PTD-portfolios for the DBs ahead of the Monday workouts:

 

 

Cornerbacks…

THE HEADLINER: It’s hard to imagine an NFL Draft without a few Cornerbacks going in the top-25, but current ‘Play The Draft’ FRX trends show Michigan State CB Trae Waynes (16.9 FRX, $1.755M current valuation, -0.8% last seven days) as the clear #1 CB with no other Cornerback with an FRX below 32.

I’m not sure I see ‘it’ with Waynes on my first evaluation. He’s good, but it’s hard to believe this is the far and away, universal best CB talent in this class.

It is a weak year for CB prospects as it stands so far, and if I were placing a $2 wager on a top-name CB who emerges Monday as a contender to Waynes it would be P.J. Williams (32.6 FRX, $1.12M current valuation, +0.8% last seven days) based on my first glances at some tape of top CBs.

 

 

PTD MOST-OWNED:  Miami, Ohio CB Quinten Rollins (46.9 FRX, $877K current valuation, -10.3% last seven days) has been a top-owned prospect for weeks (currently at 17.7% owned in PTD-portfolios), but his ownership number has been dropping day by day over the past week.

For every national Mock Draft where Rollins sneaks into the top-25, there’s another where he’s not in the top-32, and for extended Mocks he might not be in the top-60 for some. All this Mock Draft variation makes him a very erratic stock in ‘Play The Draft’ right now.

Many of you know the story: Former four-year star basketball player for Miami, Ohio who tried his hand at football in 2014, and picked off seven passes (3rd best in the NCAA)—earning the MAC Defensive Player of the Year in his debut. He picked off a pass at the Senior Bowl as well. He is an extremely raw CB prospect who some people love better than Waynes, but others are not sure what to make of him. If Rollins runs in the 4.3s or low 4.4s with great agility—the argument wil get louder for Rollins as the top CB prospect in this class.

Today, based on early/basic study pre-Combine data, I’d take a raw Rollins over a very thin-framed Waynes—if I were making a mid-1st-round selection. Worst case, Rollins could move to Safety—he’s an excellent tackler. Safety may suit him a little better as it is.

Today’s Combine results could change all that for many.

 

 

PTD-COMMUNITY SLEEPER (player outside the top-50): PTD’ers favorite sleeper CB (9.3% PTD-owned) is Florida State’s Ronald Darby (50.1 FRX, $829K current valuation, -5.8% last seven days). The ACC Defensive Freshman of the Year in 2012 has been a little quiet the past two seasons, but is an athletic talent. He’s also a threat to run a 4.35 40-time, maybe better. The Combine is a great platform to launch Darby a little higher…if he runs as well as some expect.

**Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics IDP Dynasty (three-year) projections now exist on the Fantasy Football Management technology: “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here (link): The Machine via FFM

 

 

 

Safeties…

THE HEADLINER: Alabama’s Landon Collins (11.8 FRX, $2.044M current valuation, -7.4% last seven days) is projected so far ahead of all the other Safety prospects it’s comical—either comically bad for NFL teams needing a Safety, or a comedic error of poor scouting by early Mock Drafts. If Collins flops at the Combine Monday, then this class is in big trouble; apparently.

Collins looks like a solid prospect. I just cannot believe that a Safety will go top-12 in this day and age. Safeties should be treated worse than RBs in economic scarcity terms…they are a dime-a-dozen, and the highly-selected ones have been flopping a lot more than not of late.

 

 

PTD MOST-OWNED:  There’s not a ton of PTD-conviction for any Safety prospect currently, but Louisville’s Gerald Holliman (49.5 FRX, $838K current valuation, +7.8% last seven days) is fighting Collins for the most-owned in ‘Play The Draft’ at any given moment.

I want to see what Holliman registers with his speed-agility on Monday. Any college DB that can pick-off 14 passes in one season has to be rated higher than this—in a draft with limited Safety prospects. You would think?!?

 

 

PTD-COMMUNITY SLEEPER (player outside the top-50): 4.0% of PTD-portfolios are invested in late 3rd-round projection TCU’s Chris Hackett (77.6 FRX, $620K current valuation, +6.0% last seven days). I agree—there is some sleeper potential here. Monday’s results will either confirm or deny that.

 

 

— I’ll be covering the Day 4 NFL Combine happenings as things unfold–at College Football Metrics.com. Streaming commentary and rants from 9am ET to whenever the mayhem ends. Join us for last remaining moments of sanity I have after watching four days of this. Although, I’m not sure I can top the deliriousness of Mike Mayock reciting ‘Rapper’s Delight’ lyrics during the Sunday coverage of the Linebackers.

Every time I hear ‘Rapper’s Delight’ randomly come on XM radio, I get all excited…swept away to my youth. Then, as I re-listen to it, about 40-60 seconds in, I start realizing how awful that song is…and am reminded that it doesn’t ‘hold up’ in 2015. I’m not sure that song held up the summer I first heard it.

Hey, we were starved for rap when I was kid! We didn’t have your Jay-Zs and Eminems, or even MC Hammer or Vanilla Ice. Those of us ‘rockin’ the suburbs’ were forced to listen to a rap/song that at one point turns into ‘spoken word’ about a chicken dinner that doesn’t taste very well, but trying to be polite to your friend’s mom and suffering it, but eventually you proclaim ‘it stinks’ (which, you were allowed to use that kind of language on the radio back then). Not soon after, inexplicably, the word ‘Kaopectate’ is worked in for extra street cred…on this seemingly 2.5 hour-long rap/song/spoken word/novella.

You know what. I’ve said too much about ‘Rapper’s Delight’—a sure sign of NFL Combine delirium. Too many hours watching large men running around in neon spandex. My apologies. I cannot be held liable for what I will write today…or my PTD-trades for that matter.

Good Luck with your ‘Play The Draft’ trades today!

Our Dynasty Stash 2014-15 analysis (includes IDPs) is still available:   Dynasty Stash Package 2014

More Details on our Dynasty Stash 2014-15 itemsDynasty Stash Package 2014 (Long Description)

 

 

 

R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst and writer for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. He is also a lead writer for ‘Play The Draft.com’. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.”

 **If you enjoy the free content on Fantasy Football Metrics.com please consider making your next Amazon purchase through our website/link partnership with Amazon. You’re going to buy something at Amazon anyway, there is no extra charge — help give us a little love! Feel free to save/bookmark this link in your favorites and you will have it for all future Amazon purchases. Thanks for your consideration! Link — Amazon.com: Online Shopping for Electronics, Apparel, Computers, Books, DVDs & more **

 

 

 

‘Play The Draft’ Market Analysis For Sunday, February 22, 2015

Twitter @FFMetrics

I told you—now’s your time. I’ve fallen from the top spot of our contest…and I’m not likely to get tup…for a while.

I am giving; a benevolent dictator. I am too distracted with Combine data to fully concentrate on the FFM-Contest on ‘Play The Draft’. In fact, for the first time this month—I forgot to go in at night’s end and examine my portfolio, and make changes. I probably will forget again today as well. Take advantage, like our new leader PWILK17.

As soon as the Combine ends today, I will then be writing up more non-QB scouting reports for College Football Metrics.com. You will likely see the first ones hitting on Monday, Tuesday at the latest. I’ll probably pass out at my desk and forget to make my PTD moves again tonight. I just know it.

There is still plenty of time to enter today, and win the FFM-contest. Things are going crazy with the Combine results. It’s a great time to jump in.

*Reminder—I’m making deep analysis and acting like a jerk intermittently over at College Football Metrics.com while covering the Day 3 of the Combine workouts today (and tomorrow). Join me from 9am to whenever, or read it all later after the dust settles.

Good Luck in PTD today!

(link) FFM ‘Play The Draft’ 2015—Enter the contest link   

(link) FFM ‘Play The Draft’ 2015 prize package

 

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‘Play The Draft’ Market Analysis For Sunday, February 22, 2015

*Note: The acronym ‘FRX’ refers to ‘Play The Draft’s’ proprietary algorithms which take all the national Mock Drafts and private scouting input to develop a moving average on prospect sentiment every day. The FRX drives the prospect’s price within the ‘Play The Draft’ contest.

 

Sunday is the time for Defensive Line and Linebacker prospects to get measured at the NFL Combine. With that, let’s take a look at the big story lines atop the current PTD-rankings, the PTD-most owned, and the sleepers to watch according to PTD-portfolios at DL and LB ahead of the Sunday workouts:

 

Defensive End…

THE HEADLINER:  Nebraska DE Randy Gregory (5.1 FRX, $3.94M current valuation, -5.1% last seven days) has been the lead dog in the DE rankings in ‘Play The Draft’, pretty much wire-to-wire. However, Florida DE Shane Ray (6.9 FRX, $2.89M current valuation, +2.0% last seven days) is suddenly closing the gap. More and more you can find Gregory projected #4, and Ray #5.

I suspect the Combine will favor the measurables of Gregory, and I suspect he will hold his lofty rankings—and maybe push into the #2 spot in Mock Drafts ahead with a stellar workout.

PTD MOST-OWNED:  Oregon DE Arik Armstead (26.6 FRX, $1.46M current valuation, +4.0% last seven days) is far and away the most owned DE prospect at 22.5% among PTD’ers. I touted his ‘must own’ status a few days ago—he’s up +$57K over the last seven days.

Armstead is cracking into the top-10 projections in recent Mocks, so a nice showing Sunday may officially launch him into permanent top-10 status.

PTD-COMMUNITY SLEEPER (player outside the top-50): Mississippi State DE Preston Smith (78.4 FRX, $618K current valuation, +2.8% last seven days) is owned by 5.0% of PTD’ers who see some potential value in Smith jumping from a 3rd-round status into the 2nd-round.

A recent CBS Mock Draft had him in the 1st-round, so there is some ‘fire with this smoke’. He’s a big DE at 270-pounds, so if he runs well at his size—he could fly up the board in upcoming Mock Drafts with a big day at the Combine.

 

 

Defensive Tackle…

THE HEADLINER:  USC Leonard Williams (2.6 FRX, $3.94M current valuation, -0.4% last seven days) has not only been the top-ranked DT in ‘Play The Draft’, but he is also the #1 overall pick right now.

I think there’s nothing but PTD-downside here. I was not impressed with my first session (in the context of a #1 pick level) of watching his tape or looking at his numbers. He’s sliding from #2 to #3 in most all recent Mock Drafts…he could fall further with a weak or average showing at the Combine today.

PTD MOST-OWNED: PTD’ers, and Mock Drafters love Washington DT Danny Shelton (7.6 FRX, $2.68M current valuation, +3.0% last seven days), and I absolutely don’t get it from looking at our initial data, and watching him at the Senior Bowl.

I get it—he’s a nimble land mass in the middle, so I know he’ll go 1st-round, but #7 seems like such a reach for a guy who got 55% of his nine sacks in 2014 against non-D1 opponents…and 77% of those 2014 season sacks outside the PAC-12.

PTD-COMMUNITY SLEEPER (player outside the top-50): 2.7% of PTD’ers own Washington State DT Xavier Cooper (100.2 FRX, $550K current valuation, -5.7% last seven days). This forced me to do a five-minute drive by, because I hadn’t studied him at all.

I don’t ‘see it’, but he was a DT/DE for WSU, and a move to straight DT might be more interesting. Considering him as a DT could make him a sleeper at the Combine, because he might test really well (as a DT) considering he had enough quickness to play some DE for the Cougars.

 

Inside Linebacker…

THE HEADLINER:   Mississippi State’s Benardrick McKinney (32.2 FRX, $1.27M current valuation, -7.9% last seven days) is the top-ranked ILB in ‘Play The Draft’, but more and more Mock Drafters are mocking UCLA’s Eric Kendricks (37.2 FRX, $1.03M current valuation, -7.9% last seven days) or Miami, Florida’s Denzel Perryman (37.3 FRX, $1.025M current valuation, +4.3% last seven days) ahead of him. It’s a tight race between the three.

I suspect Eric Kendricks is about to leave the other two in the dust in my early looks at the three.

PTD MOST-OWNED: PTD’ers are betting most on Denzel Perryman to make the move forward among the ‘big 3’ at ILB. He’s has been hot lately with a +$42K jump the last seven days…while Kendricks and McKinney have been losing money in that same seven day span.

PTD-COMMUNITY SLEEPER (player outside the top-50): 3.2% of PTD’ers are holding Clemson ILB Stephone Anthony (100.5 FRX, $513K current valuation, -2.7% last seven days). He’s a pretty quick player. We’ll see if the Combine confirms that—if so, he could get a little push after Sunday.

 

Outside Linebacker…

THE HEADLINER:   Florida OLB Dante Fowler (7.3 FRX, $2.76M current valuation, +0.2% last seven days) is pulling away from the pack as the highest-rated OLB, and I’m not sure who will catch him. He’s starting to show among the top-5 in most-recent Mock Drafts. He has a huge prospect momentum going into the Combine today.

PTD MOST-OWNED: The #1 most owned OLB in ‘Play The Draft’ is my favorite player in the NFL Draft in these early stages—Washington’s Shaq Thompson (22.4 FRX, $1.57M current valuation, +4.9% last seven days).

My team at College Football Metrics does computer-based player scouting, a la Moneyball, so I am not claiming Thompson is the best prospect yet, because we don’t have all the data from the Combine yet. I just love, ‘as a fan’, what I’ve seen on tape and in with his back story. The Combine is a great platform for an athlete like Thompson—he could be on a rocket ship ride up Mock Drafts after Sunday.

PTD-COMMUNITY SLEEPER (player outside the top-50):  6.6% of PTD’ers own Louisville OLB Lorenzo Maudlin (64.7 FRX, $655K current valuation, -12.5% last seven days). I’m not sure that I fully understand why at first glance of his data, but I do get that he has popped up at a top-35 guy in a few Mocks, so the PTD-potential could be looming. We’ll see if the Combine helps his cause.

 

— I’ll be covering the Day 3 NFL Combine happenings (and Day 4)…as things unfold–at College Football Metrics.com. Streaming commentary and rants from 9am ET to whenever the mayhem ends. Join us for some anti-establishment chatter to help wash down that Jameis Winston (2.2 FRX, $3.98M current valuation, -2.5% last seven days) sandwich that will be shoved down your throat all day Saturday (and will be again all Sunday, and Monday, and…).

 

Good Luck with your ‘Play The Draft’ trades today!

 

 

R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst and writer for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. He is also a lead writer for ‘Play The Draft.com’. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.”

 

 

 

 

‘Play The Draft’ Market Analysis For Saturday, February 21, 2015

Twitter @FFMetrics

I told you the NFL Combine would be your chance to make a move on me in the FFM-Contest on ‘Play The Draft’…and make a move many of you did. I was like the only one who lost money, I think…while the H&R Block guy was ‘making it rain’ for most of you with $100K+ gains. I’ll probably be in 30th by Tuesday, so enjoy kicking a man while he is down.

Don’t forget: NFL Combine Day 2 commentary and smark-talk over at College Football Metrics.com from 9am ET to whenever today. Should be more fun to watch than yesterday…a lot more fun. No real exciting breakouts from Friday. We need some action to debate today!! I think the WRs will give it to us.

There is still time to enter our FFM-Contest. You’ll be ahead of me in a few days, if you sign up today and make wise moves for 2-3 days…and as a plummet to earth. Enjoy the Combine today!

(link) FFM ‘Play The Draft’ 2015—Enter the contest link   

(link) FFM ‘Play The Draft’ 2015 prize package

 

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‘Play The Draft’ Market Analysis For Saturday, February 21, 2015

*Note: The acronym ‘FRX’ refers to ‘Play The Draft’s’ proprietary algorithms which take all the national Mock Drafts and private scouting input to develop a moving average on prospect sentiment every day. The FRX drives the prospect’s price within the ‘Play The Draft’ contest.

 

Saturday is a big day at the NFL Combine—RBs and WRs take the field. With that, let’s take a look at the big story line players at RB-WR, the PTD-most owned, and the sleepers to watch for Saturday’s workouts:

 

Running Backs…

— With Georgia RB Todd Gurley not running, I would say the big story is whether Wisconsin RB Melvin Gordon (22.4 FRX, $1.57M current valuation, +8.4% last seven days) fulfills everyone’s destiny by becoming the ‘next Jamaal Charles’ (or not).

This is going one of three ways:

1) He runs the 40-yard dash in the 4.3s, like Charles did, and locks in his low 20s Mock Draft status, and starts moving toward #15 for many. The next Jamaal Charles is worth chasing…

2) He runs the 40-yard dash in the 4.4s, and is stuck as a #20-30 Mock Draft prospect for some, and outside the top-32 for others…RBs at 210+ pounds running 4.4s isn’t all that special.

3) He runs the 40-yard dash in the 4.5s, and his bubble bursts…and it will be ugly. He would start taking a Ka’Deem Carey circa-2014-like Mock Draft dive.

I predict Gordon more disappoints than not, and comes in around 4.45…which will be seen as a mild let down (because there will be plenty of 4.3s chatter before his first attempt).

— 10.4% of PTD-portfolios contain Miami, Florida RB Duke Johnson (57.4 FRX, $719K current valuation, -4.5% last seven days), which is the highest ownership among all PTD RBs. Johnson is tracking as a late 2nd-rounder at best for most-recent Mock Drafts, but more often seen as a 3rd-rounder.

Johnson is a talent, but given the RB economy in the NFL, and his 207-pound frame, I cannot see Johnson making a major move into the mid-2nd-round unless he runs in the 4.3s…and if he does, then he might swap places with Melvin Gordon (if Gordon flops). I don’t see it. I like Johnson, the player, but assuming he runs in the high 4.4s, he’s ‘just another good RB’—not a special one to chase into the 1st-round.

— The sleeper I love so far on tape, is Northern Iowa RB David Johnson (100.5 FRX, $511K current valuation, +0.6% last seven days). He is big (6’2”, 224) and can run with power and finesse. Plus he plays like a WR in the passing game.

He could leave Saturday as the ‘it’ RB with a 4.4+ 40-time and good-great agility times.

If he runs a 4.5+, he’ll stay as a Day 2 guy.

If he runs a 4.6+, and I’ll wipe him from my Christmas card list.

— Keep an eye out for a small school 4.4s 40-time from Lafayette RB Ross Scheuerman (101 FRX, $450K current valuation, 0.0% OWNERSHIP Come on!!)

**Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics IDP Dynasty (three-year) projections now exist on the Fantasy Football Management technology: “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here (link): The Machine via FFM

 

 

Wide Receivers…

— I think some WR is going to bump Alabama WR Amari Cooper (5.1 FRX, $3.5M current valuation, +4.3% last seven days) from that constant #4 Mock Draft projection to the Raiders spot on Saturday.

Here are the WRs who I feel are knocking on that door, in the order PTD’ers think it might go (listed in order of most owned in PTD-portfolios)…

 

21.0% owned: Dorial Green-Beckham, Oklahoma (33.7 FRX, $1.08M current valuation, -3.5% last seven days):

He’s a tricky one. Such a mess off the field…and so overrated what he’s done on it (go look at his individual game logs). BUT so majestic on tape. I think he runs in the 4.4s and really stokes the flames of ‘should they or shouldn’t they’ take him in the 1st-round.

 

20.2% owned Breshad Perriman, Central Florida (67.6 FRX, $640K current valuation, +33.0% last seven days):

Mel Kiper kindled this fire. His tapes also looks great at times, but his game logs leave a bit to be desired as well. He runs in the 4.4s or better, and he may leap all the way to that #4 spot.

 

14.2% owned Kevin White, West Virginia (11.8 FRX, $2.056M current valuation, -2.5% last seven days):

He’s the national Mock Drafters non-Amari choice du jour more times than not. The person calling the action, Mike Mayock, supports White as his #1 WR, so if White runs faster than a 4.5—he’s going to get ‘the push’. He runs a 4.6+, and pins will be dropping, like when Maxx Williams ran that 4.90 40-time on his first run Friday.

 

— The most owned WR in all of ‘Play The Draft’ is Miami, Florida WR Phillip Dorsett (64.2 FRX, $673K current valuation, -1.5% last seven days) at 23.8%…which also makes him the single most owned stock in PTD.

The bet here is obvious. There is so much chatter that he might run a 4.2+ 40-time, that many are playing that hope. I think he’s high 4.3s at best, and that’s fine/good/safe for him.

If he posts a time in the 4.2s, and he goes to the late 1st-round in most all upcoming Mock Drafts.

If he runs a time in the 4.4s, he’ll be gone from top-64s for the most part.

 

— My sleeper WR is East Carolina’s Justin Hardy (100.1 FRX, $559K current valuation, +3.1% last seven days). I’m not sure the NFL Combine is his moment to amaze with his speed times. I think he is a generic 4.50 guy with great hands. However, if he runs in the low 4.4s, and some of the other notables flop in their times…Hardy could see daylight to make a move up the WR rankings.

*I’m also curious to see what Michigan WR/TE Devin Funchess (33.6 FRX, $1.08M current valuation, -9.6% last seven days) does with his workout, because the Tight Ends were so disappointing Friday—Funchess may launch himself into more 1st-round Mocks as a TE prospect…the top TE prospect.

**See the 2015 NFL Draft and 2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft, like never before with our Moneyball-style scouting reports and rankings. Go to www.collegefootballmetrics.com **

 

— I’ll be covering the Day 2 NFL Combine happenings (And Day 3 and Day 4)…as things unfold–at College Football Metrics.com. Streaming commentary and rants from 9am ET to whenever the mayhem ends. Join us for some anti-establishment chatter to help wash down that Jameis Winston (2.7 FRX, $3.9M current valuation, -3.5% last seven days) sandwich that will be shoved down your throat all day Saturday (and Sunday…and Monday…and…).

Good Luck with your ‘Play The Draft’ trades today!

 

R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst and writer for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. He is also a lead writer for ‘Play The Draft.com’. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here: The Machine via FFM

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