*Note — we do not have all the data needed for our full computer/statistical analysis, so this is based on what we do have:
Michael Floyd has not declared for the 2011 NFL Supplemental Draft, but the door is still open…however, the odds appear to be against his declaration right now. The only reason the supplemental draft is even an issue, is due to Floyd’s well documented multiple-arrests for alcohol-related incidents…most recently a DUI in which he was more than double the legal limit.
Setting the off-field issues aside for a moment, let’s look at Floyd’s NFL prospects based on what we do know…
As we ran Floyd’s on-field performance numbers and physical measurables through our statistical algorithms for college WRs — Floyd scored very well. This past season, Floyd not only scored well in our system for overall performance, but his metrics held up/improved within our system when looking at performance against the stronger opponents on the Notre Dame schedule.
In general, Floyd’s on-field performance metrics in our system has him a step below the past top WR scorers in our system historically (i.e. Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Vincent Jackson). Floyd appears to be just a notch below that group based on college performance to date.
Michael Floyd’s Physical Measurables:
This is where we have limited data to work with. From what we know coming out of High School, Floyd ran a 4.50+ 40-yard dash and has a decent/above average vertical. We do not know critical info on agility, hand-size or bench press. From what we do have, Floyd projects as a very sound/good NFL “big-WR” from a physical sense…a great red-zone option. Physicsally, Floyd is not rating (based on limited info) among the upper elite WRs in our system, but like his on-field performance ratings in our formulas…he’s just a step below that upper elite group potentially.
Michael Floyd scouting on video tape:
It would be easy to fall in love with Floyd from watching him on tape, as there is no doubt that he has tremendous hands and supreme body control. Floyd falls just short statistically overall for projecting him as a future elite NFL WR in our computer analysis, but he may make up some of that ground with his great “instinct,” hands and timing…all hard to quantify in our system. Watching him on tape, I see a WR more in control of the game, routes, DBs, etc….more in control than I see A.J. Green or Julio Jones (as comparison examples).
The NFL WR that Michael Floyd compares most to:
From what we see in the numbers from our computer analysis and also watching tape, Floyd aligns as a better version of Mike Williams (Tampa Bay/Syracuse). Great hands like Williams, with greater leaping ability ; and a sturdier/NFL frame (physically/body-wise) better built for the long-haul in the NFL.
We could also make the argument from the computers and tape, that Floyd is similar or a notch below a Dez Bryant comparison.
Michael Floyd 2011 NFL Supplemental Draft Outlook:
If he were to declare for the 2011 Supplemental Draft, I think Floyd would likely be drafted…his off-field issues would give way to the talent he possesses. I would suspect that he would be a later round selection, just due to the risk involved off-the-field.
Had Floyd been in the actual 2011 NFL Draft, I think he would have been a potential 1st-Round pick if not for the off-field issues…probably a 2nd-Round pick with the issues factored in.
Looking at other 2011 WRs to compare against — Floyd would compare to a Jonathan Baldwin, only Floyd was much more productive in college in our system analysis. Floyd is not as physically gifted as Julio Jones, but appears to have better actual WR skills than Jones. I would like Floyd easily over A.J. Green, but keep in mind we have A.J. Green rated lower than anyone on the planet I think.
2011 Dynasty League Rookie Draft Outlook (if available):
We like Floyd the WR, but don’t love the risk associated with his multiple other issues. If he had entered the 2011 NFL Draft or if he enters the Supplemental Draft, I would not be surprised to see Floyd as the best WR to come out of this 2011 class. Currently, Leonard Hankerson is our top rated “big-WR”…but an argument can be made that Floyd is right there with Hankerson, Greg Little and Julio Jones.
Floyd has a good media buzz, a la A.J. Green and Julio Jones; so likely Floyd would project in the top-10 for a Dynasty Rookie Draft…if it were held now and Floyd was eligible. I could not disagree with Floyd as the top WR in the 2011 class…I could also not argue with passing on him due to all the other mess off-the-field.
Floyd is definitely a bona-fide NFL top-WR prospect, but he (based on the info we have) is a just a cut below the true elite coming out of college. Worth a gamble for sure with the upper group, but not a “lock” for superstardom in our system at this point.