Daniel “Boom” Herron, Ohio State, NFL Supplemental Draft – Fantasy Football Draft Guide 2011
Daniel Herron is one of the players caught up in OSU’s “tattoo-gate”. Herron is currently suspended for the first 5 games of 2011, should he choose to come back to OSU for the 2011 season. To this point, indications are that Herron will return to OSU for 2011. However, I would not be shocked if he did declare for the supplemental draft in the NFL whenever they decide to hold it). Herron would probably project as a very late round supplemental selection at best.
We cannot do a full-fledged version of our scouting report out on Herron due to a lack of information to complete our studies (no NFL Combine/pro-day data). For the sake of this discussion, we’re going to run Herron through our computer based on what we do have on his physical measurables and LTD career performance. Just remember, this is incomplete data…
Herron tests well within our statistical analysis based on his performance in college, especially looking at his (potentially) final season in college. One of the statistical tests we analyze college RBs on, is a looking at their performance relative to strength of opponent. For example, Herron’s 2 TD performance against Ohio U. is not a great litmus-test of his capabilities. There are many times that we will run seemingly good/great RBs through this phase of computer analysis, and their relative performance breaks down. A RBs weaker output against tougher opponents has historically bled over into a disappointment moving into the NFL. This is not so with Herron in 2010.
Not that OSU had a monster schedule in 2010. Penn State, Iowa and Michigan were all “down” in talent…and the bowl game against Arkansas was not a huge defense to face either. However, they were solid teams; and when we look at Herron’s performanceagainst them as the “going got tougher” — we found that ”Boom” Herron held up. His 2010 games against stiffer competition in the order of when he faced them with the season):
- Mia, Fla = 14 carries, 66 yards, 1 TD
- Illinois = 23 carries, 95 yards, 1 TD
- Wisconsin = 19 carries, 91 yards, 2 TDs
- Penn State = 21 carries, 190 yards, 1 TD
- Iowa = 20 carries, 69 yards, 1 TD
- Michigan = 22 carries, 175 yards, 1 TD
- Arkansas = 24 carries, 87 yards, 1 TD
- TOTAL = 143 carries, 773 yards, 8 TDs, 5.4 ypc
One of the things that jumps out on Herron is that he scored at least 1 TD in every “tough” game in 2010. In fact, Herron scored at least 1 TD in 23 of his 33 career games over three seasons. In 15 career games where Herron had 15+ carries, he scored at least 1 TD in 12 of them. Herron seems to have “a nose” for the end-zone.
Herron measured at an OK/decent “power RB” size at 5’10 and 212 pounds…we’d rather see our “power RBs” at 220+ pounds. Potentially, the fact that Herron was the best RB on a team with a dominant offensive line which faced fairly inferior talent…all combined to help push his TD totals a little higher than is reflective of his true skills.
Herron clocked at 4.50+ in the 40-yard dash coming out of High School. We don’t have an accurate 40-time read for him now. Assuming 4.5+ speed, at 5’10 and 212 pounds…that is an OK size, but a bit of a “tweener”. He measures possibly too slow to translate to a “speed RB” in the NFL, and his decent (but not superior) body size/frame may not allow him to be a monster “power RB” either. We’d really need to see bench press and agility test results, among many other items to make a better physical profile — but from what we know, Herron is a little sketchy on his NFL translation (according to our computers).
When I watch Herron on tape, I see a RB who is fast enough for college…but not a “giant’ on size/frame/power. My first reaction watching his scouting tape is — “that’s a nice job by the O-Line.” A typical Herron run is — runs through a wide open hole, and then is quickly tackled or caught up to by a defender. I usually never see Herron break away from any defenders, he’s always caught up to in the open field easily. I don’t see Herron running over or through defenders either. Herron smacks of just a nice college RB, that may be useful in the NFL — but not a future elite/star NFL RB.
Based on the incomplete info that we have, I would not try to “out-think the room” and take a flier on Herron in a 2011 Dynasty Rookie Draft or for the upcoming 2011 Fantasy Football season (if he should declare for the supplemental draft). There is not a lot that I get excited about when pouring over Herron info or watching tape. He might be useful…but likely not a future star.
BEST COLLEGE RB DATA MATCH IN OUR SYSTEM = Brandon Jackson, Green Bay (Nebraska)
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