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Actual player news from the NFL today — Georgia’s backup RB, Caleb King has declared for the NFL’s 2011 supplemental draft. This is probably a minor surprise for many, with much of the surprise surrounding the question, “who the heck is Caleb King?”
Caleb King is actually an interesting/tragic RB prospect (to date, of sorts), and is someone who is legit to consider as an NFL prospect from a physical skills standpoint and a prospect that we should all be aware of for Fantasy Football 2011. King is a former top-5 in the nation RB coming out of High School, but no doubt you noticed this article’s intro of him as a “backup RB.” What happened to all the promise a few years ago? Why does a backup in college think he is worthy of making an announcement for the NFL supplemental draft? What are we make to make of King’s NFL and Fantasy Football chances?
From High School to the University of Georgia:
From a physical measurables standpoint coming out of High School, Caleb King should have been an electric/superstar RB in college. King clocked a tremendous 40-yard dash time (in and around the 4.40 range), with exceptional (really exceptional) agility measurements, and a terrific bench press count (21) as High School Senior….terrific even for a College Senior.
King arrived at Georgia with a ton of fanfare, but sat behind Knowshon Moreno initially…and then continued to play a backup/split role after that. King never had a college game with more than 20 carries (18 was his career game high). King had a total of two games with 100+ rushing yards in his 29-game career, including a 166 yard/2 TD effort against Georgia Tech in 2009.
For all of his talent, the question that lurks is — why did King produce so meagerly in college for Georgia?
The tragedy of wasted potential…
The reason that King was never able to play in every game of any of his three seasons at Georgia is…off-the-field issues. The two most major items that pop up when searching news reports on King:
1) It was reported that King was suspended for a few games due to academic issues last year, including missing/skipping multiple meetings he was to attend concerning academics at school. Ultimately, King was ruled academically ineligible for the upcoming 2011 season — forcing him to the NFL (he appears to have passed on transferring to a lower level).
2) The (reported) failure by King to appear in court for traffic violations and was suspended by the team for a few games for that.
King’s Georgia bio (my opinion) is one of immaturity and a lack of self-discipline. Those character issues are obviously going to hurt him toward getting a shot with an NFL team, but he will get a shot because some of his physical measurables may be too hard to ignore.
Caleb King statistical performance metrics
We isolated King’s career to just the games with 10+ carries over the past two seasons (12 games), and combined them into one “hypothetical season.” King’s raw rushing totals in this “mock” 12-game season would be 155 carries, 894 yards, 7 TDs with 5.8 yards per carry. A total of 155 carries in 12 games is not a heavy workload, it’s just 12.9 carries per game. If we bumped up King’s carries to 15.0 per game, he would jump to 1,037 yards in a hypothetical 12-game season with 8 TDs.
A pace of 5.8 yards per carry is strong, and King has shown flashes of brilliance when watching him on tape. However, he lacks consistency and we’re not sure how he would perform as an every-down feature RB…versus coming in as a change-of-pace back for scattered carries, or in relief late in a big win/loss. There is a glimmer of hope here, but you have to squint to see it…then when you reach that glimmering light — you’re not sure if it is real gold or fool’s gold.
Would we touch him for Fantasy Football?
We were not interested in LeGarrette Blount on character issues in the 2010 preseason, and he had the best season of any rookie RB last year…and Blount is highly thought for Fantasy Football 2011 (for now). Young NFL RBs and WRs can seem to overcome character deficiencies for short periods of time, as their physical talents temporarily outshine/gloss-over the behind-the-scenes issues. King is potentially a RB prospect that could be thought of like that as well.
In a Dynasty League rookie draft, Caleb King is at least on my draft board for late round consideration. For Fantasy Football 2011, we’ll have to see where he winds up — an organization with stronger locker room presence might just the ticket…King has the kind of physical tools that he could jump right in and make splash in 2011 if the situation falls his way. If King lands in an NFL locker room that already has “issues,” he might get lost in it.
You should be aware of Caleb King, but don’t over-invest…and “buyer beware.”