Billy Cundiff was a respectable Fantasy Football kicker in 2010. He was ranked 13th overall in PPG among Fantasy Football kickers in our scoring system (4 pt for 40+, 5pt for 50+) analysis. Cundiff hit on 89.7% of his FGs in 2010, 5th best among all kickers.
The fact that Cundiff plays for the respected Ravens offense, and he had a nice 2010, and then all that mixed with the reality that most people just “grab” a kicker for Fantasy Football, mostly on a “whim”…is all likely to add up to 2011 Fantasy Football GMs possibly throwing their “kicker dart” at the dart board and hitting Cundiff.
Why we are cautioning against Cundiff, is not because he is a bad kicker (who knows from one year to the next on any kicker?)…the caution is based on the difficulty of the early 2011 schedule.
Statistical metrics and trends on Kickers are difficult to feel comfortable with in any given preseason. What we see as a trend one season, is totally flipped upside down the next year. One strong, reliable trend is — a lower kicker scoring (for Fantasy Football) when facing a top-notch NFL Defense. Kickers scored 7.4 Fantasy Football PPG overall in 2010, but just 6.4 PPG against the top-tier defenses (PIT, GB, NYJ, BAL, etc.).
Last season, the Ravens/Cundiff opened with NYJ-CIN-CLE-PIT in their first 4-games of the season — and Cundiff averaged only 4.5 Fantasy Football PPG in that 4-game stretch. From Week-5 on, Cundiff scored a more top-tier Fantasy Football scoring average at 8.6 PPG. *Week-13 against PIT, Cundiff only scored 4 Fantasy Football kicking points.
In 2011, the Ravens/Cundiff face the same issue. The first 4 games of 2011 are PIT-TEN-STL-NYJ, at least two problem matchups in there…and STL is coming on. After those first 4 games, the Ravens then have a Bye in Week-5.
It’s a terrible schedule start for Cundiff in 2011. If you just grab a kicker on a “whim” to start a season, you may want to avoid Cundiff.