Charlie Whitehurst, better than Matt Hasselbeck

I’m just a regular person, an amateur, who likes to breakdown tape of football players and combine that with trying to apply mathematical formulas based on physical attributes and college/pro performance — all to predict future performance. In my time doing this, I can tell you that studying QBs is fascinating and maddening. I have had a reasonable success determining which young QBs could “make it”, and those that might would bust. As a resume’ of predictive calls on young QBs as of late/preseason 2010:

1) Kevin Kolb, I projected as a Top-10 level NFL QB and would be a Top-5 Fantasy QB. It looked crazy early on, then not as crazy when he got a chance to play the last few weeks — a top rated NFL passer over the stretch of time. I still stick by Kolb is going to be an elite QB in the NFL, and that he is better than Michael Vick for the Eagles right now.

2) Matt Leinart, many people’s sleeper QB for Fantasy 2010 — I said he would likely be cut versus become anything viable for Fantasy 2010 in the preseason.

3) Sam Bradford, the best of the 2010 early QB draftees between he, Colt McCoy and Jimmy Clausen — but I said not ready for Fantasy viability in 2010. That has been true so far, but I am back tracking now the more that I see that Bradford is lot better than I gave him credit for. I think he is a Top-10/15 Fantasy QB the rest of 2010, based on talent and fortunate schedule.

4) Colt McCoy, not an NFL QB was my call — based on college performance metrics and physical attributes. I still stick by that.

5) Max Hall (ahead of his start and after his first start), not an NFL QB. I feel pretty secure with this call.

6) Matt Moore, another 2010 Fantasy sleeper for many — I commented in the preseason that I had watched the tape of all the 2009 Matt Moore throws/plays, and that he was extremely lucky last season and extremely limited; and would be replaced by Clausen at some point.

7) Dan LeFevour, drafted late by the Bears. I said from his preseason tape that he looks like a better QB/leader than Jay Cutler. Not that he would replace Cutler this year, but that LeFevour was one to watch. He was subsequently cut by the Bears and quickly picked up by the Bengals. Jury still out until he gets a chance.

John Skelton, drafted by the Cardinals — I said he would be the Cardinals QB at some point by the end of the 2010 season and might a star in the long run. I still see Skelton jumping in to the lineup as very possible this year.

9) Tavaris Jackson, doesn’t belong in the NFL…especially as a starting QB.

OK, I could go on…but I want to establish that no one is perfect in all analysis, however I’m not just 50/50 on these projections. I isolate and watch each throw by these guys and compare them to one another (and vs. already proven QBs). I can see traits on tape that tend to lead to success, and things that equal potential doom. I don’t make these calls or projections lightly, or from quick highlight reels, or regurgitate stuff from other publications. I purposefully don’t read much analysis from any source and I have limited my watching NFL Network or ESPN, etc commentators because they so…bandwagon-ish and knee-jerk. They tend to parrot the conventional wisdom or template based on a snippet or a highlight. Ron Jaworski and Brian Billick as a couple exceptions.

With all that in the hopper, I say to you — I think Charlie Whitehurst is better than Matt Hasselbeck right now. I have watched the tape and I see in Whitehurst what I have seen in other competent/good NFL QBs. There were a handful of young players in the 2010 preseason who blew me away — Charlie Whitehurst being possibly the most impressive, partially because I went in to breakdown his work — I expected to mock and discredit him (based on what I had ‘heard”).

In my analysis — Whitehurst is accurate, but will take appropriate chances down the field. He is confident in the pocket, very tall (6’5), with an above average arm. To me, he has an “air” about him, and I know that’s non-quantifiable. Whitehurst will not come in like a Max Hall, Matt Leinart, Jimmy Clausen, etc and just dump the ball off to RBs and throw errant “hopeful” bombs down the sideline. Whitehurst is a true QB from what I have seen in about 50+ plays in the preseason. Will he show it in his very first game against a very good Giants team? I don’t know. One game is not a body of work to judge. I say he might be OK right away, since he has a couple (4) years experience already (albeit on the sidelines for every snap of every game, zero NFL passes in his career).

If Whitehurst does what I think he can/will do — the Hasselbeck era is over in Seattle. Hasselbeck has been so bad for over a year now, he is ripe for the picking/benching. If Whitehurst goes in and throws for 2-3 TDs and 250-300+ yards vs. NYG, how can they turn back? They might, but if they do it won’t be long before the “cat calls” go out as Hasselbeck takes another unnecessary sack or throws a needless INT.

If you are in a deep roster Fantasy league, with all QBs gone and you are scraping the bottom of the barrel. This may be a low risk ticket out of the gutter. Take a gamble on Whitehurst, stick him on the roster, see if he wins the job. If not, drop him the following week. If he does grab the job, you may have found a decent QB the rest of 2010….again, this move in only smart in a 12-14+ team league and/or 17-20+ man rosters. Your standard 10-12 team league this make little sense.