Cleveland Browns 2011 Fantasy Football Review, 2012 Dynasty League Thoughts

Posted on February 20, 2012 by R.C. Fischer

*Part of our on-going 2012 series of a team-by-team review of 2011, and our look ahead to 2012. Designed more for Dynasty League players, but may come in handy as early homework for traditional Fantasy Football players. 

The Cleveland Browns always feel like they are a million miles from the NFL promised land, but we think they are much closer than most people realize.

The Browns have a very underrated Offensive Line, anchored by Joe Thomas. The Browns have an O-Line, that in late 2009 helped transform Jerome Harrison into Jim Brown…temporarily, for about 3-games. This is also an O-Line, that in 2010 gave life to previously under-whelming Peyton Hillis. It is also an O-Line that in 2011, occasionally made lesser NFL-talents, Chris Ogbonnaya and Montario Hardesty relevant. If you give the Browns O-Line a plausible RB, they will aid a return on investment. The problem for the Browns offense is not running the ball concerns, as much as it is that Colt McCoy is not a good, great, or elite QB (told ya…).

The Browns passing game has been so bad…it’s another tip of the cap to the O-Line. It’s easy to say, “get a real QB”…the problem is finding one. The 2011 Bengals proved what can happen when a very good (potentially future great) QB lands in a team’s lap. If Robert Griffin III is that QB (subscribe to www.collegefootballmetrics.com to find out what our computer analysis thinks about RG3′s chances as an elite NFL QB), and with the Browns in reach of getting their hands upon RG3 in the upcoming NFL Draft…maybe turning the corner on the Browns franchise is actually close at hand.

It would also help, if the Browns purged their WR core (except Greg Little) to go along with that. Finding solid/serviceable RBs and WRs, is proving to be the easier task (supple & demand-wise) in the NFL these days. The Browns have the obvious QB problem, but aside from that…they do have a very good O-Line in place, with a suddenly emerging top defense.

The Browns were among the top-5 defenses of 2011 in points allowed (#5). As well as a top-10 defense in yards per game allowed (#10, with 332.4 yards per game). The pass-defense is where the hidden gem is with Cleveland…and we noted that oncoming trend several times this past season; in downgrading the QBs/WRs facing them for Fantasy Football most of 2011. The Browns finished as the 2nd-best pass-defense in 2011, with just 184.9 yards per game allowed. The Browns have some of the best young defensive talent in the game.

If RG3 is a future star (debatable), and if the Browns can land him…and with the other pieces already in place, the Browns are a team waiting to take off (if RG3 is an instant hit). However, another season of Colt McCoy, or some other mediocre QB…like Kyle Orton or Matt Flynn; and it will be another season of disappointment in Cleveland.

 

The Browns RB conundrum…

Peyton Hillis appears to be somewhat of a flash in the pan…and even if he isn’t, his 2011 escapades probably burned his bridge with Brown’s management irrevocably. We don’t expect Hillis to be back with the Browns, which leads to a mild problem…the Browns have no other stable/upside RBs (to us).

Montario Hardesty looks like his running in mud, and we noted that issue several times in 2011…including what we saw back in the 2010 and 2011 preseason contests. Hardesty has played in just nine games over his two NFL seasons. He lost his first season due to a major injury…and it appears to be an injury that is holding him back, potentially forever. Season-two (2011) was pretty bad…just 4 games with 10+ carries, and just one game with 70+ yards rushing (and it took 33 carries to get 95 yards on the ground). Hardesty registered ZERO TDs in 2011. We had decent grades on Hardesty coming out of Tennessee, but everything we’ve seen since his injury has been dreadful. Perhaps, he bounces back in 2012…but nothing in his first two seasons should give anyone major hope. He is worth a lottery ticket look at best in the Dynasty League offseason, but I would not invest much at all. His perceived value is usually ahead of his real value, in Fantasy Football.

Chris Ogbonnaya is a journeyman RB, and cannot carry a full load consistently, or effectively.

The RB we do kinda/sorta like, is Union College 2011 rookie Armond Smith. Smith is not a workhorse, but in time he could take on a Darren Sproles type role effectively…but it could be years away. Smith has tremendous speed, and trounced the lower-levels of college football. Smith has waivered back and forth on the Browns active roster in 2011.

Our guess is, the Browns try to run with Hardesty plus some other RB. The question is, will it be a bigger name RB or not. I hate to “beat a dead horse,” but Cleveland is another possible landing spot for Mike Tolbert as well. Tolbert is built for AFC North running, and has great hands for the West Coast passing game…and can be a great blocker for a scrambling RG3 as well…

 

The Defense…

As we noted earlier, the Browns have the building blocks of a great defense. The Browns 2011 selections of Phil Taylor (1st Round) and Jabaal Sheard (2nd Round) paid a return on invest immediately. Chris Gocong and D’Qwell Jackson lead a very good LB core. Where we really like the Browns defense, is in the secondary. Joe Haden played great in 2011, we had mediocre grades on Haden coming out of college…but he his play has proven that to be a porr call to-date. T.J. Ward is an underrated Safety, who missed 8 games in 2011. We also have great grades on 2011 rookie CB Buster Skrine out of Tenn-Chattanooga. If Skrine develops like we think he could, the Browns could be on the verge of one of the best defenses in the NFL again in 2012.

For those in deeper leagues, looking for a long-shot CB play, Skrine has amazing/chart-topping speed and agility metrics…and one of the higher grades that we’ve given to an incoming college CB in the past 5+ years. There may be a 1-2 season transition from lower-level college raw talent, to NFL cover CB…however, if Skrine becomes a student of the game, we see the potential for a shut-down CB here. Skrine also could see action in the return game, but not if Josh Cribbs is healthy.

On a non-Browns side note = if the Browns are on the verge of defensive excellence, and you add that to Baltimore and Pittsburgh’s notorious defensive prowess…it really has to concern you on some level of hit to Andy Dalton and A.J. Green’s Fantasy Football production/upside for a Fantasy season, when having to face those 3 teams, six times per year.

 

A very tired joke…

“A man walks into a bar…” has about as much play as “we’re going to get Josh Cribbs more involved in the offense this week…” Several years, and a couple coaches later, and I don’t want to hear that anymore. The Browns need to walk away from thinking that Cribbs and Mohamed Massaquoi are WRs that will lead them to the promised land; they are “role player” type WRs at best. Massaquoi is highly overvalued in Fantasy Football circles; we see him as too small-framed to be a “#1.” Massaquoi was mediocre in college, and has been that (at best) in the NFL. Cribbs, apparently, is only elite in the return game.

Greg Little is a step in the right direction. A larger-sized WR (a one-time power RB), who is a weapon in-waiting after the catch…but needs to get his hands on the ball more often. If Little is available on the cheap in Dynasty Leagues right now, I’m a buyer. The one thing that moves Little from good-to-great will be the QB, and if you believe the Browns will have something else besides Colt McCoy at QB…Greg Little might be one of the breakout WRs of 2012.

 

Colt McCoy

There is no sense in going on long about Colt McCoy. McCoy had awful grades within our QB computer scouting models coming out of Texas, and has shown so far to be a serviceable QB at best…not a transcendent, franchise-changing QB. As long as McCoy is the QB, all the Browns WRs and TEs are downgraded for Fantasy Football purposes. McCoy averaged 1.0 passing TDs per game, and 210.2 yards per game in 2011. McCoy creates a barren Fantasy Football wasteland for all parties (WR/RB) involved, as well as the issues he creates from a win/loss standpoint.

 

TE log-jam…

The Browns have several unique TEs, but no real future elite TE. Ben Watson is very capable, but will be pushing 32 years old this season…and had mediocre output this past season. He’s solid, but unspectacular for Fantasy Football purposes.

Evan Moore is a freak for size at 6’6″, but not overly fast/agile to make more of it. With a better QB, Moore becomes more dangerous for Fantasy Football due to his height advantage in the red-zone. Moore tied Josh Cribbs for the Browns lead in receiving TDs this past season, with a lowly 4 TDs.

2011 rookie TE Jordan Cameron is a nice physical specimen of a TE, but has never shown the output to go with it. We think Cameron is a future NFL bust, and we are steering clear of him…unless we see some radical turn of events. Cameron looks great visually, but is wildly inconsistent and under-performing back throughout his college career.

Posted in Cleveland Browns, Game Recaps | Leave a comment

A non-Rashard Mendenhall 2012 World View…

Posted on February 16, 2012 by R.C. Fischer

With the news that Rashard Mendenhall “could” start the 2012 season on the PUP list, and/or could be hindered in 2012 by his late-season ACL tear…most of the questions into me as of late, have been surrounding the various individual depth chart Steelers RB possibilities. To answer that question, let’s go through the Steelers options in no particular order:

Isaac Redman is the most obvious “next up.” The problem with that is, if the Steelers are a serious contender for 2012…there is no way that the Steelers will just willingly turn the running game over to Redman. The main reason is talent; Redman just isn’t that spectacular. Like many NFL RBs, Redman is useful in a pinch…a nice relief RB, but not a workhorse that can be a game-changer (our opinion). Redman could be in the mix for 2012 carries…but there is little chance that he is a 200-250+ carry RB in 2012. That being said, you now have peak value on Isaac Redman if you own him in a Dynasty League…now is the time to extract max-value on a trade-away; if all possible.

Actually, I don’t feel that the Steelers 200+ carry RB is on the roster at the moment. Let’s look at this from the “smart” Steelers standpoint.

One of the NFL teams that I most admire on personnel decision making ability, is the Pittsburgh Steelers. Time, and time again…they outthink, recycle, find sleepers, and avoid media hype players. No franchise’s personnel decisions are always perfect, but the Steelers may be the best in the business. That being said, Rashard Mendenhall is an unrestricted free agent in 2013…and dealing with a major 2012 injury. Mendenhall isn’t even 25 years old yet (will be in June), so there should be “tread left on the tire” in theory. However, given the ACL injury, given Mendenhall’s past embarrassing public commentaries, and most importantly — given the trend that the RB position is becoming a low need position, with plenty of supply to meet the demand…I’m not sure the Steelers are going to make a strong move for Mendenhall in 2013. If Mendenhall is sketchy for 2012, and he could be allowed to walk in 2013…the Steelers cannot feel secure about the RB position “as is.”

A move that would not shock me, a player who would fit the “Steelers-way,” a RB that has an AFC North mentality/style, and a RB that could be part of a duo if Mendenhall is fully recovered, and under contract…is Mike Tolbert. I don’t see the Steelers spending a ton on a flashy, overpriced RB this offseason…but a Mike Tolbert could be a huge bargain. Tolbert has proven NFL skills/productivity…and is flying under the free agent radar right now. He is a Steelers type of bargain, if the price stays lower.

Without a Mike Tolbert-type signing this offseason, or even if so…the Steelers could draft a RB 3rd-5th round this year. When the Steelers draft any position, the odds go up that it is the right call…and there are always plenty of mid-round/late-round/undrafted RBs available each NFL Draft that out-produce the expensive 1st-Round type RBs.

If the Steelers add a Tolbert, and/or draft cleverly (as usual)…Isaac Redman’s Dynasty Fantasy Football value sits at an all-time high right now.

The Steelers also have other options to consider. In 2011, the Steelers drafted a RB in the 7th-Round that our computer scouting models really liked — Baron Batch. Batch injured his knee in training camp, and was lost for the 2011 season. Batch is obviously a risk coming off this type of injury, but is one to watch (if healthy) in this whole post-Mendenhall fallout for 2012. For more info on Batch, see a 2011 NFL Draft piece we did — Baron Batch Rookie RB — the Pittsburgh Steelers “Out-Scout” Everyone…as Usual | Fantasy Football Metrics – RC Fischer Blog

We do not like Jonathan Dwyer at all. Dwyer graded as one of the physically worst RB prospects that we have ever analyzed. Dwyer measured slow, non-agile, small handed, and a higher probability injury-risk…other than that, he’s awesome. Dwyer was a top performer for Georgia Tech, but keep in mind that was in a wishbone type offense…the NFL saw right through that as Dwyer plummeted from an early 2nd-Round RB mock draft prospect in 2010…to an actual mid 6th-Round selection. Dwyer has looked better in the NFL, since he has cut some weight…but I’m going to trust the computer on this one until proven otherwise. I’m not pursuing Dwyer, no matter what the underground media chatter theorizes on it.

John Clay is a harder RB prospect to gauge right now. Clay is a massive 6’0+, 230-pound RB that was a huge producer for Wisconsin from 2008-10 (3,413 yards rushing in 3 seasons, with 41 TDs). At one time expected to be a higher 2011 NFL Draft selection, but wound up losing his final 3 games of 2011 with an MCL injury…leading to an extremely slow 40-time (4.83) at the NFL Combine, and thus Clay went undrafted. Clay was moved up to the active roster late in 2011, actually grabbed 11 carries late in the season for the Steelers. Clay is intriguing for Fantasy Football if he heals, and can improve upon his foot speed. Don’t be shocked if Clay winds up as a part of an RB tandem, as the short-yardage “pounder.” If the word from training camp starts up that Clay is looking quicker than ever, etc…use caution, but heed the potential if he actually is faster (post-injury) than his 2011 NFL Combine data showed. He would be a Mike Tolbert type RB (minus the ability in the passing game).

The Steelers are smart, and like the Patriots and Packers…I think that they will be comfortable moving toward a cheaper RB-tandem going-forward. It’s the smart business move in the NFL. It just so happened that they were able to land an elite-talent like Mendenhall in 2008, so it made sense to ride that train. Now that the train is derailed, I don’t think the Steelers will hit the panic button, they will do what they always do…make a great middle of the draft selection, or find that hidden gem undrafted free agent, or sign an available RB on the cheap.

Posted in Game Recaps, Pittsburgh Steelers, RB | Leave a comment

New College Prospect Scouting Website…down to the final moments

Posted on February 14, 2012 by R.C. Fischer

We are very close to announcing the “grand opening”…we had a goal of Valentine’s Day (our 3rd goal date), and it’s possible that late tonight that the switch gets thrown…but likely it is into Wednesday or Thursday at the absolute latest. We will have a home page article/announcement when good-to-go for anyone interested in signing up.

There are currently a few people (thank you!) who are going through the beta-site and initial reports…and providing us feedback. We have a couple of loose ends to tighten up, and another drop of additional QB reports completed, and then we will be as ready as we can be. Anyone who has built a website from scratch, or built a house with a contractor knows how these things go…last second discoveries and anxiety on saying — “done” (and you’re never really done). As I type this, I am listening to on hold muzak from our credit card processor, waiting for info on a last second issue…ugh

Appreciate all the emails and interest in these college prospect reports, and well-wishes on this new venture. We hope that you will find the information unique, useful, and entertaining. Thanks!

Posted in 2012 NFL Draft, Game Recaps | Leave a comment

Matt Forte age error, article updated

Posted on February 14, 2012 by R.C. Fischer

In an article this weekend we noted Matt Forte’s age in the 2012 season at 27 years, 9 mos…it is actually going to be 26 and 9 mos. We have corrected the error, but wanted to issue a quick release on it so we didn’t mislead anyone. That one year is a huge valuation change on what we had mused in the article.

Sorry, and thanks to the kind reader who emailed in on my mistake!

Posted in Chicago Bears, Game Recaps | Leave a comment

“Old QB” fade years? (ages at beginning of season)… 

Posted on February 11, 2012 by R.C. Fischer

An interesting clip from Stats Magee’s Stat of the Day today…

“Old QB” fade years? (ages at beginning of season):

 – 35 years. 4 mos old = age Joe Montana started breaking down physically, missed most of two seasons

 – 37.4 years old = Montana’s two season run with KC begins

 – 36-37 years old = when the Dan Marino (arguably) began to fade

 – 36.6 years old = Peyton Manning to start 2012

 – 35.1 years old = Tom Brady to start 2012

 – 33.8 years old = Drew Brees to start 2012

 – 31.8 years old = Eli Manning to start 2012

http://fantasyfootballmetrics.com/Player_News/2011/StatoftheDay/fantasyfootball_2011StatOD_1.htm

Posted in Game Recaps, QB | Leave a comment

Fantasy Football thoughts from the Super Bowl…

Posted on February 8, 2012 by R.C. Fischer

 – The fleeting Fantasy Football hopes we had for Travis Beckum as a possible 2012 breakout PPR TE, are now all but dashed after his Super Bowl ACL injury. Beckum was a phenominal pass-recieiving TE at Wisconsin, and had started to have minor flashes of hope in late in 2011…off the 2012 sleeper board he goes.

TE Jake Ballard had a decent season as the main pass-catching TE for Eli this year, but he also went down with an ACL as well in this game. With the possible loss/slowdown of Beckum and Ballard in 2012, the Giants are likely going to have to sign and/or draft a frontline TE in the upcoming NFL Draft. If/when they do bring in a TE, the whole landscape of Eli’s targets may change off of the heavier reliance on Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks.

 – We may have all gone a tad overboard on Victor Cruz now.

At first, no one cared…Cruz was quietly one of the top Fantasy Football WRs from Week-3 on. Late in the season, as the Giants played higher profile games with some highlight-reel Cruz plays…and he caught fire in the media. Once NFL defenses shifted more focus to Cruz, his numbers started to recess to reality a bit.

Cruz’s 2012 playoff per game numbers were 8.2 FF PPG, 13.4 PPR PPG, 5.2 rec, 67.3 yards per game, and 0.25 TDs per game. A drop-off from averaging over 100+ yards and 0.6 TDs per game in the regular season. His playoff Fantasy numbers were also a decline from his 13.7 FF PPG, 19.1 PPR PPG regular season.

In 2009, Steve Smith (remember him?) had 107 catches, 1,220 yards, and 7 TDs working with Eli…and Smith became a coveted possession WR heading into 2010 Fantasy Football season. In 2010, Smith had a quiet start, then injured…and now irrelevant. Cruz is very good, but he is still a 6’0 possession/slot WR….somewhat similar to Smith. We like Cruz, but if you possess Cruz in a Dynasty League…I would be a seller at peak valuation, if others saw him as a top 5-10 NFL WR of the future. I certainiliy would not be attempting to acquire Cruz at these valuation levels.

I would trade Cruz away to acquire Nicks in two seconds…but the more I talk with folks on that topic, the more they think I’m crazy with that thought. Cruz is really good, but he is not Calvin, Fitz, Andre…or even Nicks. Cruz (to me) is a 7-8 real value on a 1-10 scale, but many who possess him in Dynasty Leagues think he is a 9-10. I’d gladly deal a this 6’0 tall WR (Cruz), for a physically bigger elite WR if I could get away with it.

 – BenJarvus Green-Ellis averaged 46.7 yards rushing per game in the Pats three playoff games…with just 1 TD, and 3.7 yards per carry. BJGE averaged just 41.7 rushing yards per game and 3.7 yards per carry in the regular season as well. I am very interested in who the Pats main RB is going to be in 2012…it can’t be BJGE again. Either Shane Vereen (we’re not fans of Stevan Ridley) steps up, or Belichick pulls some other rabbit out of his hat.

 – Great play by Mario Manningham, but likely no way he’s back with NYG…as someone always seems to “steal” Super Bowl heroes like this away. The team that signs away Manningham to a nice deal in 2012…it will be the equivelent to Steve Breaston being a coveted free agent WR this past off-season. Manningham is now at peak Fantasy Football value for the rest of his career…you should take advantage of it in Dynasty Leagues if you have him.

 – Eli Manning is now a media ordained elite NFL QB. Perhaps he is, but we’ll see who steps up to take him as the #5 (or earlier) QB in traditional Fantasy Football 2012 drafts…after Rodgers, Brees, Brady, and Cam.

Brady, Brees, even Rodgers have logged much more history than Eli, as statstically/Fantasy elite QBs. I’m wondering if Eli’s 2012 Fantasy Football value becomes a little overheated…like Matt Schaub’s coming off of 2009.

 

Posted in Game Recaps, New England Patriots, New York Giants | Comments Off

College Football Prospect Report Website, very close now…

Posted on February 7, 2012 by R.C. Fischer

We’re in the final phases of testing, and loading in all the initial QB reports. About 20+ individual QBs reports, and another 10-20 lower-rated prospects will also be touched upon…but not in as full detail as the main 20+ QB prospects.

All the other positions are having data loaded, waiting on the NFL Combine and Pro-Day data to fill in the puzzle. Post-NFL Combine, full research reports on top players, sleepers, big-name busts from the RB, WR, TE, DL, OL, DB, LB, classes will be popping in as fast as we can produce them…all throughout FEB-MAR-APR. Full ranking boards of all players analyzed will be posted as well, for quick glance listings.

As soon as we set the actual launch date, we will blare it all over our site. Thanks again for the interest.

Posted in 2012 NFL Draft, Game Recaps | Comments Off

Cincinnati Bengals 2011 Fantasy Football Review, 2012 Dynasty League Thoughts

Posted on February 4, 2012 by R.C. Fischer

*Part of our on-going 2012 series of a team-by-team review of 2011, and our look ahead to 2012. Designed more for Dynasty League players, but may come in handy as early homework for traditional Fantasy Football players.

 

The problem with the getting overly excited about the Bengals prospects in any given year, is that they play in the AFC North. We almost have to begin every season thinking — the Bengals will have four tough game/losses built-in with BAL-PIT, and if they split with CLE…then a (1-5) or (2-4) record is automatically embedded into every preseason prediction (in theory). The AFC North issue, leaves the Bengals having to win 7-8 of their other 10 games to be playoff relevant. This past season, Cincinnati went (9-0) against non-playoff teams…and (0-8) against playoffs teams (including a 1st-Round playoff loss to HOU), and an obvious (0-4) with PIT-BAL.

The AFC North problem (despite game wins or losses), bleeds into the Fantasy Football aspect of Bengals offensive player outlooks. In a 12-13 week Fantasy Football regular season, it’s possible that 20%+ of the Fantasy regular season could be chewed up facing the Ravens and Steelers defense…not good for Fantasy output typically. There have been occasional “exceptions to rule” seasons for Cincy, but the smart money would always be that the Bengals are a collective lesser-talent/lesser-franchise compared to Baltimore and Pittsburgh in any given season…we feel 2012 will be no different. 

I know it is very chic to say that Andy Dalton and A.J. Green will lead the Bengals into the new millennium. We are being classically conditioned to think that with a perpetual media drumbeat. No different than years ago saying that Carson Palmer and Chad Johnson will turn around the Bengals franchise’s fortunes. The Bengals went (46-51) with Carson Palmer as a starter from 2004-10, including (0-2) in the playoffs in seven years. The Bengals made the playoffs in Palmer’s 2nd-season (2005), returning again 4 seasons later in 2010. It’s not a horrible era, but nothing memorable either…and probably an underachievement when looking back through the lens of time. 

Will top free agents really flock to the worst run franchise in the sport (not just opinion, it was voted upon last year)? Will Cincinnati be able add, and maintain/sustain top weapons on a consistent basis…we probably all know the answer to that one…

We have always been pro-Andy Dalton, but our fear is that this is the same ole’ Bengals franchise…and if Andy Dalton has the potential to be an “A+” QB, it may never come to pass as a member of the Cincinnati Bengals. If Dalton reaches a “B+” level status, and the Ravens and Steelers continue to dominate the NFL landscape…it’s going to be a rocky road for Dalton to produce big Fantasy Football output consistently, which thus brings into question the Fantasy Football high-output potential for the surrounding cast in that same light.

 

Andy Dalton

We were pro-Dalton before it was popular to do so pre-NFL Draft. We were a vigorous defender in the preseason when national media made fun of his performance against the Jets, and called him the worst NFL starting QB going into 2011. In the right situation, we think Dalton could push to a “near” elite QB status in the long-term, like a Tony Romo or Eli Manning. Our fear is that he will be mired into a Fantasy Football mediocrity, somewhere between the 10th and 15th best Fantasy Football QB in any given year…a virtual “no man’s land” for Dynasty/Fantasy owners. 

Dalton showed enough pocket presence and game management, that I would never give Dalton away or bet heavily against him. I also would not overpay for (or overvalue) Dalton, as a Bengals QB. Although, we have had much higher scouting grades on Dalton, I might rather have a Matt Ryan in Dynasty leagues going forward for the next few years…given Ryan’s surroundings (weapons, coaches, dome/turf, and conference/schedule).

 

A.J. Green

We’ve beaten this one to death, but one more time…we think Green is good, just not a difference making WR. Green is a not on the level with the true elites — Fitzgerald, Nicks, Calvin, Andre type WRs…or even in Julio Jones’s class (to us). Just as the Bengals/Dalton have to perpetually face BAL-PIT, so will Green. Toss in the possibility that Cleveland may have the best pass-defense in the conference, and it could be six very brutal games built in per year for Green.

Green against the AFC North in 2011 (5 games, missed a BAL game) = 2.6 receptions, 60.0 yards, 0.6 TDs per game. Consider one of his TDs was against Cleveland on opening day when a coverage breakdown allowed Green to have no DB over him, leading to his only catch in the game…an uncontested 41-yard TD.

We have said several different times the past few weeks…you should be dealing A.J. Green now, at the apex of his Dynasty League Fantasy Football value. On a 1-10 valuation scale, Green is sitting as a 9-10 value in most Dynasty League owner’s minds…but to us, Green is a 6-7 value at best. I’ve beat the drum on this all 2011…I think we are seeing Mike Williams/TB circa-2010 here with Green. Much like Williams/TB, Green’s value resides in his TD productivity. Early in 2011, against the easier part of the Bengals schedule, Green had 5 TDs in first eight games. In his last nine games (including playoffs), Green had just 2 TDs. Those with Green in Dynasty Leagues, you are holding a hot “internet stock” at its peak value…it would be a smart, franchise-changing decision to move him at the “high.” 

Cedric Benson and Bernard Scott

It would seem logical for the Bengals to let Benson go, and move on to other cheaper/just as effective options…if that’s logical, then it definitely means that the Bengals will re-sign the under-productive Benson for another. At the start of the 2012 season, Benson will be 29 years and 9 months old…nearing ancient in RB terms. Benson has had back-to-back seasons with under 4.0 yards per carry, and has averaged less than a half-a-TD per game in the last couple years combined as well. Benson is solid at best, but any decent RB who received the carries that Benson does, would have easily put up similar numbers. What the Bengals affinity for Benson is, I have no idea. 

There are rumbling that Benson will be let go, and if so…Benson has a rapidly declining Fantasy Football value, as the Bengals have breathed life into Benson with a heavy workload; a workload he will not likely see anywhere else. A Benson release does not necessarily equate to a Bernard Scott emergence…although we’d love it to. We have always preferred Scott to Benson in our scouting models, but the Bengals have never agreed with that. Scott had a very respectable 76 yards on 22 carries against a very stout Seattle run-defense in Week-8 (Benson suspended), and his reward for that workhorse game…was 6 carries in his next game, and 6.8 carries per game in his next eight games (ignoring Week-17).

The Bengals have been reluctant to turn over things to Scott, so even if Benson is gonzo…the Bengals will likely bring in a hopeful front-line RB via draft or free agency. If all the Bengals do is keep Benson, and do not draft/sign an RB of interest…Bernard Scott’s Fantasy Football value rises heavily in our books. With Benson approaching 30 years old, it’s wise to bet against his ability to play a full-season…and rather bet that he under-performs worse than the past two seasons, and then Scott knifes his way in there as the main ball carrier.

 

Jerome Simpson

Our computer scouting on Simpson has been very good, but the one thing we cannot quantify is figuring out which NFL players will have several pounds of marijuana in their dwellings. My guess is Simpson will miss half, or the entire 2012 season with a suspension. If not, Simpson is an unrestricted free agent…and probably only has one home, with the desperate teams who tend to tolerate off-field antics…so either he’s back with the Bengals, or possibly he becomes a Jaguar.

Simpson can be really good, and we think at their peak performances…he’s as good/better than A.J. Green. However, Simpson acted erratic on the field this season, and his output was inconsistent…this is one WR we regretfully walk away from, until we see a definitive change. There are too many other intriguing WRs in the world of Fantasy Football, to waste time messing with Simpson right now.

 

Jermaine Gresham

If Gresham was going to be a superstar NFL TE, this would have been the perfect breakout season. A 2011 season with a solid/emerging rookie QB, and really no dependable weapons outside of A.J. Green. By default of the extra coverage afforded to Green, Gresham should have had much greater statistical output. Gresham had a steady/mediocre output all year, and was solid, but not spectacular…a respectable amount of TDs, but little else. In pre-NFL Draft computer study, we saw Gresham as a nice/useful NFL TE, but too slow/non-agile in his physical profiles from the NFL Combine compared historically to become a breakout NFL star…and so far that’s been true to form.

 

Quick Notes

  • If you like Andy Dalton’s ability to control the tempo of a game, do not be shocked if in 2012 Dalton turns away from over-reliance on A.J. Green…and more turns his primary attention to Ryan Whalen as his Wes Welker-lite type WR. Whalen is a taller, thicker, quicker version of Jordan Shipley. Both Whalen and Shipley are solid WRs, whichever one emerges as a 2012 starter, could have a very nice 2012 PPR season under-the-radar.
  • Assuming Jerome Simpson is gone in 2012, or otherwise disposed…Vidal Hazleton and Armon Binns are intriguing low-budget options as younger/bigger UDFA WRs to try to fill the gap. We like Binns more, and see a possibility for him to be a solid NFL WR…with a chance to be a very good NFL WR. It depends upon how much he hits the weight room…Binns is 6’3, but struggles to stay over 210 pounds, a proto-typical skinny/small-framed tall WR (which is an injury risk). Keep an eye on Binns for a long-shot play for Fantasy Football down the road.

 

Posted in Cincinnati Bengals, Game Recaps | Comments Off

Two clues(?), based on listening to Sports Talk Radio the last 24 hours…

Posted on February 3, 2012 by R.C. Fischer

To me, Super Bowl week is the worst week to listen to sports radio…a lot of hand-wringing, and mega-over analysis as to who thinks who will win…and why. However, I did hear 2 things in the last 24 hours that caused me to take a mental note of interest:

1) Our Kevin Kolb love affair is on the verge of filing for irreconcilable differences as it is, but it just got worse…for me. Yesterday running an errand, the local sports channel teased that Larry Fitzgerald was coming up next,  on ESPN’s Mike & Mike Super Bowl coverage. I was about to change the channel, but then I thought — I would like to hear what Fitz says when pressed about Peyton coming to ARI…actucally, I wanted to hear him defend Kolb (who a year prior; Fitz was instrumental in recruiting/endorsing for ARI).

Fitzgerald never uttered the words Kevin, or Kolb. He jumped right into how great it would be to be with an elite QB like that. I thought, “well maybe Fitz is just being nice to Peyton.” However, then Mike Golic asked a stunner…he directly asked about how players endorsing/coveting Peyton as their QB now, what if they don’t get him…how does it look to the existing QB? It was tremendous question, in the scope that (understandably) national talk radio is pretty sanitary on follow up/tough questions. I expected Fitz to take this lifeline and talk about how great Kolb is, since he forgot to in part one of the questioning. Fitz never blinked, and my impression of his answer was more of a — “too bad if existing QBs don’t like it.” Again, he never mentioned Kolb by name. I was stunned. If Larry Fitzgerald has turned on Kolb (or just unconcerned about him)…it is probably time for me to be the last one out, and turn the lights off on the way out. 

2) On a Starbucks run this morning, I came upon Cam Newton being interviewed on Mike & Mike. Cam was asked about the college football playoffs (pro or con). Cam went into a thing about the BCS formulas and not understanding where they came up with the numbers from, etc. He went (seemingly) on and on…and he lost the hosts for moment, who did not laugh or even follow up, they just moved on (if I recall properly). Cam is typically a nice interview, affable, always saying the right things…but when pressed for detail (which rarely happens in fawning sports media), Cam makes me scratch my head.

Cam had a lower Wonderlic score, our computer scouting questions his decision-making ability under pressure…questioning iwhether he can even be an elite NFL passer. His numbers from Week-5 on in 2011, were not as spectacular as advertised. We still question whether Cam is a future elite NFL QB, we have thought he is not all along…and hold that position today. An elite runner yes, elite passer…no.

Cam was not asked a tough question about the college football playoffs on ESPN, but he talked himself in circles, digging an aimless hole deeper and deeper. Anyone can have a bad day, or moment, answering a question…but I thought the answer he gave on Mike & Mike might be a mild glimpse beyond the surface of Cam. As I listened to Cam’s answer, I remeber thinking it was like a bad Miss America Pagent answer. The Miss America candiates have prepared material, and for most it never goes past what they pre-prepared…and the candidate prays (as does eveyone else) that they do not have to improvise. It reminded me of this moment (youtube clip below) from a few years ago (Cam was not as bad, but the clip is so funny/shocking…I am forcing it into this peice…enjoy: 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JtkX3OyPF4Q

Posted in Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers, Game Recaps, In the Media | Comments Off

The Mike Tolbert 2012 Dynasty Fantasy Football Upside Possibilities, and a Brilliant “two-fer” Potential…

Posted on January 30, 2012 by R.C. Fischer

*pre-release, pre-editor advance copy of home page article 

I have written it many times in the past two years…”our computer scouting really likes Mike Tolbert.” The subsequent next sentence that always links to the prior statement is…”but our computer scouting analysis loves Ryan Mathews.” Most people’s like/love-meter may be different on Tolbert vs. Mathews, but the final outcome is likely always the same…most everyone prefers Mathews over Tolbert. The Mathews over Tolbert “feelings,” is where the potential lies in the 2012 Dynasty League Fantasy Football off-season.

Mike Tolbert is an unrestricted free agent for 2012.

In the 2011 preseason, Tolbert was a restricted free agent coming off a very nice 2010 season in which he posted 735 rushing yards, 951 total yards, and 11 TDs…mostly in relief of oft-injured rookie Ryan Mathews. That nice 2010 effort, got him a one-year deal for 2011.

In this past season, Ryan Mathews stepped up big (when not hurt) and Tolbert mostly sunk into the background after his 3-TD game on opening day. Tolbert’s value/standing in the football community is down right now, as his 2011 season quietly came to a close…a season of hiding in the shadows of Mathews.

Despite the quiet finish to 2011, we have heavy intrigue with Tolbert. We see some potential for Tolbert to be a “poor man’s” Michael Turner…only a Turner-like RB, who is also an excellent receiver out of the backfield (unlike Turner). More on why we think Tolbert could be a Fantasy Football superstar in waiting, in a moment…

First, let’s think about the national mood swing among football fans/media, etc. that could happen with Tolbert in the next few weeks and months. Pretend for a moment that Tolbert just signed a nice contract with Cincinnati (and Benson released), or signing with Cleveland (and Hillis not re-signed), or Indianapolis, or Detroit? If Tolbert’s new contract lands him into a situation where he is expected to be the main-carry RB, his Fantasy Football stock will instantly skyrocket for 2012.

The possibility of huge Tolbert value pop, is why we need to explore getting in ahead of that…either to count on him for 2012 output, or to turn around and deal him on the hype.

Let’s look at Tolbert’s journey to coveted NFL free agent, and we will lay out the case for his potential stardom…ultimately making the case of why Tolbert may be a cheap lottery ticket RB to bring in for you Dynasty League team right now; before the majority puts this “2 & 2″ together…

 

From the mind of A.J. Smith…

Say what you want about San Diego General Manager A.J. Smith, but you could make the case that there has been no better “drafter” of RB talent than A.J. Smith. As an Assistant GM, and long-time head of scouting, A.J. Smith was part of the decision-making that brought LaDainian Tomlinson into San Diego in 2001. I would also admit, that the Tomlinson selection was not necessarily a “stroke of genius”…the Chargers had the 5th pick overall, and LT made sense. However, we have to give credit…it was San Diego that made this franchise changing decision. The more impressive “needle in haystack” RB draft picks were to come after LT in 2011, picks made directly by Smith…

Smith became the General Manager for San Diego in 2003, and went on an impressive RB draft run over the past eight years. In 2004, Smith selected Michael Turner with pick #154 in the NFL Draft. Smith followed that up with the 2005 selection of Darren Sproles at pick #130. Yes, at one time the Chargers possessed LaDainian in his prime, with Sproles and Turner rounding out the RB depth chart.

In 2010, the Chargers made a huge/controversial move by trading up in the NFL Draft to the #12 pick, and selecting Ryan Mathews. Whether you value RBs as 1st-Round worthy NFL picks, or not…Mathews hasn’t been a bust, and has been the best of the three RBs taken in the 2011 1st-Round (over Spiller and J. Best). Our computer scouting models has pointed to signs that Ryan Mathews could be a true NFL elite RB…on the level of Tomlinson, but it remains to be seen. Only time will tell.

Smith didn’t draft Mike Tolbert…he simply scooped him up as an undrafted free agent. Another great scouting maneuver, made brilliant in the context of the value of the move versus the cost…which is almost nothing with an undrafted free agent. Another thing that Tolbert will have in common with some of the aforementioned A.J. Smith RB draft picks steals…he is likely headed to another team soon.

 

The value of Mike Tolbert

They don’t make many RBs like Mike Tolbert. The only RB “comps” in recent history (to us) are Michael Turner, Brandon Jacobs, Peyton Hillis (Hillis circa 2010)…monster-sized 235+ pound RBs, with good (or better) speed and great agility. These giant RBs typically have “hands of stone” in the passing game. This past 2011 season, Tolbert was 4th among NFL RBs with 54 receptions…including games with 8, and 9, catches in a game. Tolbert can catch, run between the tackles, bowl over defenders, is a trusted blocker, and can leap over goal-line piles…in other words; Mike Tolbert is an every down NFL RB.

In his 4-year career, Tolbert has played 14 games in which he has received 10+ carries in the game. In those 14 games, Tolbert has averaged 88.3 total (rush + rec) yards per game, 4.3 yards per carry, and an amazing 1.0 TDs per game. A hypothetical 16-game season for Tolbert, based on his 10+ carry games would be — 251 carries, 1,068 yards rushing, 1,413 total yards, 16 TDs, and 14.5 Fantasy Football PPG (16.8 PPR PPG).

Tolbert doesn’t appear to wear down with a heavy workload. In his eight career games with 15+ carries in a game, Tolbert’s yards per carry jumps to 4.4 per. In Tolbert’s two career games with 20+ carries, he has rushed for 100+ yards in both games with an average of 135.0 total yards per game.

It’s Tolbert’s TD-prowess that gives him that extra Fantasy Football value punch. Tolbert has 21 TDs in his past 30 games played (last two seasons), and most of those games played he was not a starter. Tolbert has 20 career games where he has had 10+ touches (carry + catch) in a game, and he has scored 16 TDs in those 20 games. Only seven other NFL RBs have as many regular-season TDs as Tolbert in the past two seasons, and he is tied with Ray Rice for 8th most. Tolbert has more TDs than MJD or Frank Gore in the past two seasons. Keep in mind that his high TD tally/comparison over the past two seasons, comes with the fact that he doesn’t get nearly the carries/opportunities that the RBs ahead of him in TD tallies do. Tolbert is physically built for the red-zone, and his statistical output shows he can deliver in the NFL.

 

Mike Tolbert 2012 wake-up call…

When the dust settles, post-Super Bowl, in a few days/weeks…the mainstream football media will turn their full attention toward the 2012 season. The NFL Draft will dominate discussions, and just underneath that (in media importance) will be unrestricted free agent rumblings. When those discussions begin initially, outside of San Diego, I’m not sure anyone is going to care heavily about 2012 unrestricted free agent Mike Tolbert.

I just did a quick Google search for 2012 NFL free agent lists, and I had to laugh. It’s unscientific, and I didn’t scour the universe…but the first article I came across, which ranked all free agents by “importance,” didn’t contain Tolbert in their top-50. The first article I perused which ranked 2012 free agents by position, had Tolbert 7th among all free agent RBs (two spots behind Michael Bush). My sense in conversations, and looking at the Football media reporting, is that Tolbert is rarely on anyone’s mind…and that’s where the Dynasty League opportunity is right now (before they wake up to it).

Let’s talk in terms of a simple 1-10 valuation. Mike Tolbert’s value (mentally) to most Fantasy owners is about a 5-7, closer to 7 if the owner possesses Ryan Mathews as well. If Tolbert signed a contract today with the Patriots, or Browns, or Lions…his value would jump to a 8-9. Long-time Tolbert owners know what he is capable of, but most have admitted recent defeat/deference to Mathews.

An owner with Tolbert only, likely has little love (unless they have realized the free agency ramifications) for Tolbert and would set him free. A great “cloud cover” on this is if you own Mathews, it makes sense for you to be calling for his handcuff. However, the Mathews angle to this is the potential “two-fer” grand-slam possibility.

 

The Ryan Mathews/Mike Tolbert Dynasty League “two-fer”….

If Tolbert is on the same Fantasy Football team with Mathews in your league, I would recommend a risky strategy of going after both in trade. On that 1-10 value scale, we would estimate Mathews is probably a 7-9 value and Tolbert is a 5-7 is an owner’s mind right now. If the possibility exists to acquire both, the owner with “dual custody” might/typically sees them as “one” RB…not two separate valuable entities. Tolbert is just the “Mathews insurance policy” for many Dynasty owners. Packaged together, a Dynasty owner may see Mathews-Tolbert as a combined value of about a 11-12. Acquiring both, could land you two top-10 RBs in 2012…if Tolbert splits off into his own greatness. Worse case, you get Mathews and all his upside if Tolbert flames out.

If you land Tolbert easily from one owner, and Mathews is owned by another…go for Mathews under the guise of pairing with Tolbert. Beating the drum of Mathews linked to Tolbert is the key to everything here. The more people see them as “one,” the more you can get one…or both.

If you already own Mathews, flying in after Tolbert makes sense…no eyebrows are raised, you are simply just trying to get the Mathews handcuff! I keep discussing them from the Tolbert point of view, but the Mathews value jumps greatly if Tolbert is gone as well.

The Mathews-Tolbert plan is an excellent one for a Dynasty team that has been mired at the bottom of the pack for years. On the Chargers, Mathews and Tolbert kind of chip into each other’s statistical output upside. Separately, they could be two top-10 Fantasy Football RBs for years…a possible Dynasty franchise changing maneuver.

 

Risk…

There is a risk here with this Tolbert maneuver, as there is in everything. One risk is that San Diego applies a franchise tag on Tolbert, and he is “stuck” with Mathews for another season. A franchise tag could sting for 2012, but ultimately, you would think the Chargers are not going to retain two high contract RBs. A.J. Smith has shown that he will not keep the 2nd RB expensively…i.e. Turner, Sproles. Possibly, the genius of a pre-emptive Fantasy Football move on Tolbert, might have to wait on the pay-off until 2013.

There is a risk Tolbert is not that good, but you should not have too give away too much for him straight up…this should be a relatively cheap look-see.

There is a risk that Tolbert becomes a free agent and winds up on a team with a solid RB, and ends up as part of an RB-tandem. The way of the NFL world anymore is the RB-tandem, so it is possible…but Tolbert is not a bad RB to have in a tandem, as he will be the goal-line “heavy” in any RB-duo.

 

“Greed is good”…

Right before Gordon Gekko said those famous words…”greed is good,” he declared that he was not a “destroyer” of companies, that he was a “liberator” of them. Snagging both Mathews and Tolbert as “one,” is not much different than buying a company because it’s worth in assets is more if broken up and sold off…than its value to continue operations as normal. If Tolbert is “liberated” from San Diego in the next few weeks, whether you possess him alone, or with the Ryan Mathews matching set…you may be sitting on a possible goldmine.

Posted in Game Recaps, RB, San Diego Chargers | Comments Off