Are you kidding me with the Buffalo Bills-Defense for Fantasy Football 2012?

Posted on May 14, 2012 by R.C. Fischer

tags — dynasty leagues, 2012 fantasy football, keeper, idp, rookie draft, buffalo bills defense, mario williams, connor barwin, brooks reed

 – See more of our statistical analysis on the 2012 NFL Draft prospects @ www.collegefootballmetrics.com –

I had a quasi-Joe Pesci in Goodfellas moment yesterday…

I was skimming online research on the various early reports on any national media top 150-200 players for the 2012 Fantasy Football Draft, and I saw the Buffalo Bills defense listed on a couple websites among their top 5-10 Fantasy Football defenses for 2012. I was shocked. My mind raced back to a few radio discussions I’d heard lately where people were talking about the drastically improved Bills-Defense, and how they were “a team on the rise.” At the time, I just laughed that off as the over-reactionary mainstream media who thinks the signing of Mario Williams changes an entire defense/franchise (more on why that is a joke in a moment).

Seeing it in the national media was bad enough. I then had a conference call with a private client/long-time friend who wanted to go over their draft strategy for a startup Dynasty League Draft that was taking place within a few days. This Dynasty league doesn’t have an IDP setup, just a “team-defense” roster/lineup spot.

I started to discuss some of the defenses we are looking at for 2012+. After a few teams were analyzed and discussed, my client said, “you never mentioned the Buffalo Bills.” I was silent, caught off guard. I thought it was like a practical joke. After what seemed like an hour, I mumbled in a stupor…”what”? My client replied, “the Bills-Defense; they are going to be big-time this year…no“?

In Goodfellas, there is that famous scene where the mafia guys are all playing cards and Tommy (Pesci) is verbally going off on the kid-barkeeper “Spider” (who Pesci had just shot in the foot a few scenes prior). “Spider” doesn’t take Tommy’s verbal assault for long and eventually tells Tommy to “go ____ himself.” The guys all laugh at Tommy and cheer on “Spider.” Knowing Pesci’s character, you know how gutsy/stupid a thing “Spider” just did. Tommy’s face changes in a rage, he can’t speak, he sits there staring daggers at “Spider” amidst the howling of his friends. The more his friends laugh and mock him, the angrier Tommy gets. Finally, to end the debate Tommy pulls out his gun and shoots “Spider” several times, killing him…end of discussion.

In a figurative sense, I did the same thing to my client. (I am close with this client for years, so it’s all in fun, and he cleared me using this for the article). “Did you just say the Buffalo Bills-Defense is big-time this year“?, I asked with incredulity. I’m not exactly sure what I said next, or if it made any sense. I went into an incoherent Joe Pesci-esque “how am I funny” tirade of anti-Buffalo Bills, anti-mainstream media diatribes. 

Picture the Seinfeld episode when George got the nickname “Coco (the monkey),” as his boss watched George from behind a windowed office wall passionately flailing about his arms in a heated discussion with a co-worker. This particular Fantasy Football team-defense discussion ended with my client saying, “so that’s a no on the Bills-Defense then“?

It was a funny moment, but it’s not funny in a broader sense. During this client strategy session it hit me that this is “a thing” now. The Buffalo Bills as a “sleeper-defense” is a bad seed that has been planted into many of our subconscious. The clues on this mainstream media “hoax” has been developing for months…

When the Bills signed Mario Williams a few months ago, I remember the media/fans went nutty. “How could the Texans lose Williams“? or “The Bills are serious about turning things around now,” the media chirped. I just thought that was knee-jerk reaction of the moment, and that no one would take it too seriously. I then heard several media members mention the Bills as a “team on the rise” for 2012 during the NFL Draft coverage, but I wrote that off as typical NFL Draft network pandering. When I heard Colin Cowherd (who I respect tremendously) mention the Bills as a sleeper team for the playoffs in 2012 in the last week or so, I was taken aback. Now I see the Bills listed among the top 5-10 defenses for 2012 Fantasy Football among the mainstream.

The Buffalo-Defense mainstream group-think has exercised it’s way down into the Fantasy Football “norm,” so get ready to see it at every turn as we get closer to the preseason. It’s time to pull out the gun and start shooting “Spider” for this act of disrespect…

 

Another missed meeting….

I keep missing these secret football meetings held at highly secluded locales. I was not invited to the gathering where the mainstream had determined that Mario Williams was the single greatest defensive player in football history…despite all the evidence that he is somewhere between lackluster and good at-best.

So…the same Mario Williams who “led” a Houston Texans defense that you mocked for almost his entire career, now seven-years into his career with five straight years of declining performance numbers, he is going to save the dreadful Buffalo Bills Defense by his mere presence? Years of declining performance rewarded with a giant contract — what could go wrong here?

Williams’ career key stat totals:

  • 2006 = 47 tackles,  4.5 sacks, 1 forced-fumbles (FF)
  • 2007 = 59 tackles, 14.0 sacks, 2 FF
  • 2008 = 53 tackles, 12.0 sacks, 4 FF
  • 2009 = 43 tackles,  9.0 sacks, 2 FF
  • 2010 = 28 tackles,  9.0 sacks, 1 FF (13 games played)
  • 2011 = 11 tackles,  5.0 sacks, 1 FF (5 games played)

 

Mario Williams couldn’t lead the Texans-Defense to anything for his entire career, but now he will save the even more hapless Buffalo Bills defense? How does the following track record get you excited?…

The Houston Texans rankings in PPG allowed (2006-2010, pre-injured Williams):

  • 2010 = 29th in points allowed in the NFL
  • 2009 = 17th in points allowed in the NFL
  • 2008 = 27th in points allowed in the NFL (All-Pro season for Mario)
  • 2007 = 23rd in points allowed in the NFL (All-Pro season for Mario)
  • 2006 = 25th in points allowed in the NFL (Rookie season)

 

What’s that you say? The Texans had an awesome defense in 2011″? I’m glad you brought that up…

Mario Williams played in five games in 2011 before going down for the season due to injury. In those five games, The Texans went (3-2) and held opponents to 19.0 PPG. Once Williams left, the Texans lost their next game to Baltimore, and then won seven games in-a-row. In that 8-game stretch, they held opponents to a near NFL best 14.1 PPG. Wow, did they miss Mario Williams! In the Texans final 13-games (regular and playoffs) without Mario Williams they allowed just 16.4 PPG…2.6 PPG lower than with Mario Williams in 2011 (and mostly with a 3rd-string QB giving over poor field position).

The Texans-Defense averaged 1.6 turnovers in 5-games with Williams in 2011, and 1.6 turnovers per game after Williams left (regular and post season).

Not only did Williams have little impact on the overall rankings/output for the Texans-Defense, but his individual stats were equal to or less than his replacements. Take a look at these sack and total-tackle comparisons between Mario Williams and his replacements Connor Barwin and Brooks Reed…

 

SACKS

0.65 = Mario Williams sacks per game (career)

0.66 = Mario Williams sacks per game (2009-2011)

0.86 = Connor Barwin sacks per game (2011 regular season after Williams left)

0.79 = Brooks Reed sacks per game (2011 regular and post-season after the Williams injury)

1.20 = Brooks Reed sacks per game (the 5 games following the Williams injury in 2011)

 

TACKLES

2.3 = Mario Williams tackles per game (career)

2.1 = Mario Williams tackles per game (2009-2011)

2.1 = Connor Barwin tackles per game (2011 regular season after Williams left)

2.8 = Brooks Reed tackles per game (2011 regular and post-season following the Williams injury)

 

Perhaps, you think Mario Williams presence makes others around him better? The next-best sack total on the Texans for any DL or LB in Williams five-seasons pre-2011 had season totals of (going from 2006 up to 2010) — 2.0, 5.5, 4.0, 4.5, 4.0. This past season four Texans DL/LBs had 5.5+ sacks on the season (Barwin, Reed, Watt, A. Smith)…most all of it coming post-Williams.

ALERT, ALERT — Heretical statement approaching = The Texans-Defense was better in 2011 without Mario Williams, and better with Connor Barwin and Brooks Reed. The Texans-Defense will also be fine/great without Williams in 2012. Yes, it’s true…it’s true.

I’m mocking Mario Williams, but I don’t mean to portray him as “bad” or a bust. Williams is a nice/solid football player, just not a franchise savior…he never has been and he isn’t now. My concern is with the revisionist history at play here, and how it might suck in some Fantasy Football GMs. Williams is a “B” talent, being paid as an “A” talent, and discussed as an A+++ talent.

It’s not a crafty move by the Buffalo Bills, rather it’s a very poor business decision. A poor decision that they had to “force” because of several prior years of bad decisions. It’s not going to be salvation for Buffalo, nor is it going to be a crafty move for a Fantasy Football GM in 2012. Let the ESPN/NFL.com lapdog in your league soak this one up…

 

The Buffalo years…

The Bills did allow the 3rd most PPG in 2011 (and the 5th most in 2010), so their “defensive ship” is definitely sailing in the right direction…they just needed Mario Williams to push them “over-the-top.” The Bills have been a notorious brilliant personnel team since Bill Polian left, and they have had one winning season in the last 12-years record to prove it. Nothing could go wrong with this giant contract…let’s all ignore the last decade and all join in lockstep to now trust the Bills personnel evaluations wholeheartedly.

The Bills added overrated Mario Williams with the very suspect Mark Anderson (on his 4th team in four years) for free-agent signings, plus are likely to start a rookie CB this year. Mix all that with a mediocre/overrated QB in Ryan Fitzpatrick to lead the offense to troubling field position, and you have a definite “dream-team” Fantasy Football Defense that I would be all over (need I say sarcasm)…

If you ever wondered why the Bills are “the Bills,” and the Texans are a team built to contend since jettisoning Charlie Casserly...the Mario Williams signing by the Bills (and non-signing by the Texans) says it all.

 

2012 Dynasty or Traditional Fantasy Football advice…

I’m not taking the 2012 schedule into heavy consideration for this evaluation of the Bills-Defense. The Bills-Defense is (currently) “bad” no matter what their schedule is. In the first five games of 2012, the Bills face Sanchez, Cassel/Stanzi ;) , Weeden, Brady, Alex Smith. If Cassel starts for KC, that’s the Bills facing four lower turnover prone/more veteran QBs (some with a big running game to keep the QB out of harm’s way) right out of the chute, with Weeden as probably the lone outlier/Fantasy scoring opportunity for the Bills-Defense in the first five games of 2012.

The Bills do have a great end-of-season 2012 schedule with a Week 13-16 stretch consisting of three straight home/cold games in-a-row with Gabbert/Henne, Bradford, Flynn/Wilson, with a Week-16 game at Tannehill/Moore. Late in the season, you may want to pick up the Bills-Defense off waivers (and they will be there) heading into the playoffs as a temporary mercenary defense. If you start the season out with the Buffalo-Defense for Fantasy Football, you will be destroyed right out-of-the-gates.

We think the Bills will get torched early and often in 2012, and that will mostly roll through the entire season and into 2013+ as the Mario Williams signing continues to perpetuate this hapless NFL franchise on their normal path of mediocrity and more high draft picks. The Bills-Defense will be a bad pick for traditional leagues for 2012…and a bad longer-term decision for Dynasty Leagues.

It will be a long time before Buffalo digs out of it’s talent-hole. Buffalo is not a desired destination for free-agents, so a quick fix to this franchise is going to be an uphill battle. With the Bills last decade track-record and the current heavy payroll that the Bills have tied up with the useful Mario Williams, the mediocre Ryan Fitzpatrick, and good/under-sized/nutty Stevie Johnson…it’s doubtful that this is a team or team-defense “on the come” to bet on long-term in Dynasty Fantasy Football, or in 2012.

www.fantasyfootballmetrics.com

www.collegefootballmetrics.com

Posted in Buffalo Bills, Defense, Game Recaps | Leave a comment

Going on a Blind Date with Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin III…

Posted on May 9, 2012 by R.C. Fischer

tags — dynasty leagues, keeper, 2012 Fantasy Football, rookie draft, Luck vs. Griffin RG3

 – See more of our statistical analysis on the 2012 NFL Draft prospects @ www.collegefootballmetrics.com –

In preparation for this article, I did a research of the various opinion articles and chat room threads to see what the consensus was on Andrew Luck versus Robert Griffin in the early Dynasty Rookie Drafts taking place. I did not need help with my Luck vs. RG3 decision making process. I was just curious where the consensus winds were currently blowing.

After checking out the current landscape, I can save you a lot of time and research because almost every article/comment on this topic is identical — “Luck is the safer choice, but RG3 has the greater upside.”

There it is…research complete.  

What is surprising to me is that the early results are running about a 50/50 split for which QB is taken first over the other. I thought there might be a move against RG3 when push came to shove. I thought perhaps, there might be some “cold feet” on the “running-QB” in the face of the premium passer.  Actually, the allure of the running-QB appears to be drawing folks like “a moth to a flame.”

The Luck versus RG3 decision likely has more to do with the psychology of the person making the choice, then actual football study at this point.  You can look at rosters, college highlights, the history of the NFL, etc. Likely this choice comes down to — the people who are more daring, looking for a bigger Fantasy Football splash/payday, and/or are anti-establishment will gravitate toward Griffin. Folks who are anti-mobile QB and/or have an investor/business background are very comfortable with the “sure thing” choice of Luck.

Our computer has made a definitive move in one direction, and that move is heavily toward Luck over Griffin in the 2012 Dynasty Rookie Draft. I’d try to get both if I could pull it off, but if I could only have one – it would be Luck.

I keep seeing the words Griffin and “upside” going hand-in-hand, but how did Luck get painted with no upside? The fact that Andrew Luck could be the greatest NFL QB of the next generation seems like a pretty “high ceiling” to me.

I have a couple of reasons why our computer analysis points clearly toward Luck ahead of Griffin (and I will explain), but it really comes down to how you would evaluate an actual investment decision. Actually, let’s not get too technical – it’s as easy a decision as your reaction to the following “blind date” hypothetical scenario:

Seriously, put yourself in this following “pretend” scenario…and long-time married folks (like me) don’t get too excited by this exercise of pretending you have these dating options. Furthermore, be careful running the risk of making your spouse any madder at your Fantasy Football obsession by discussing this at the dinner-table…

If you had to make a choice between a blind date with one of the following two people, that I’m about to describe, which one would you choose? Once, you have made a selection, your choice of the one person would mean you would not “have a shot” at the other now or later…so no double-dipping. It’s all or nothing.

 

The Dating Game…

Several friends are trying to set you up on a blind date, and they are all in agreement that both choices are perfect personalities for you. The background descriptions are almost identical…it’s like they are mental twins. There is no “clue” for you to delineate between the two choices based on personality, career, hobbies, etc. info you are given. Both choices sound great/perfect.

Both options have seen your picture and heard all about you from your friends, and both options are highly interested in a date with you.

Person #1 = Ten of your friends agree that Person-1 is beautiful. On a scale of 1-10 for “looks,” all of your friends proclaim that Person-1 was an “8” or a “9.” There was no variance from the 8 or 9 ratings. In your mind, you’re pretty sure you are anticipating a date with an 8.5 of 10 with Person-1.

Person #2 = There is a wider variety of opinion on looks here with your ten friends. On the same 1-10 scale, you are getting some “4” feedback as well as some “10” ratings from your friends…and everything in-between. Some say Person-2 is very exotic and unique, while others thought the person looked quite strange/unusual.

If that was all that you knew about your two choices, and you had to decide fast, what would you ultimately choose? Would you be content with the 8-9 rated person? Or, would you go all “Tin Cup” and “go for it” with the possible “10,” but might wind up with a “4″? *No George Carlin jokes allowed about having never been with a “10,” but was with five twos once.

It’s obvious, which is Luck and which is Griffin in this blind date scenario. As crazy as it sounds, your answer to this blind date question is probably what you should (or will) do in the Dynasty Rookie Draft. For most all of us, our curiosity would be peaked at the wide-range of scores for Person-2, but we’d be very content with the highly rated “smart money” option. We would take the 8-9 option and not think twice, why take the risk the other way?  

It’s like Deal or No Deal. Two cases left, and it’s the $1 million and the $200,000 cases remaining…and the “banker” just offered you $800,000 to walk away from the choice between the two cases left.  How could you not take the $800K? How could you not take Andrew Luck ahead of Robert Griffin?

The blind date and Deal or No Deal scenarios make sense for the way that the options are being portrayed. However, what if Andrew Luck is a really a “10″ in waiting? It’s possible that both QBs are great, but that Luck is just “greater” with the bigger upside.

 

The Running-QB “rope-a-dope”… 

I think the biggest reason that Dynasty GMs are taking RG3 ahead of Luck is based on a bit of a 2010 and 2011 fallacy, and this is fresh in our minds. The problem is the often misguided allure of the rushing QB for Fantasy Football – more specifically its Michael Vick 2010 and Cam Newton 2011 at fault.

RG3 is not Cam Newton as a running-QB. Newton is 3 inches taller and nearly 30-pounds heavier/more solid-frame. Nine of Newton’s ridiculous 14 rushing TDs in 2011 came from within 6-yards of the end-zone. All but one rushing TD (out of 14) were inside the red-zone. Cam Newton is like a Fullback running in short distances, Griffin is nowhere near as big. Newton is more apt to push a pile forward and/or can take a hit and still go forward, whereas Griffin is likely more apt to get rocked by bigger defenders when running in “tight” spaces. There is no way RG3 is going to run for 14 TDs in a season…or even close to it.

RG3 is probably not Michael Vick as a running-QB either. Vick measured much faster, and much more agile than RG3. There will probably never be another Michael Vick as a running-QB, and to some degree due to his weaker passing skills…Vick was “forced” to run. If you think, RG3 is going to be capable (or good-great) as an NFL passer…do you think he’s going to take off running all the time? Griffin would be crazy to have a high amount of plays heading up field with his feet when his arm can move the team. Certainly, his coaches/owner won’t want their expensive investment to take off all the time (Andy Reid doesn’t want the best escape artist ever doing it either…).  

Vick also tallied huge rushing TDs when it was “convenient.” If RG3 is coming off a jail stint and multiple-creditor bankruptcy, he too may rush for nine TDs in a season like Vick did in his recent contract year of 2010. Once the fat contract/signing bonus was secured, then Vick had just one rushing TD last year. Vick had 8 rushing TDs in first season as an NFL starter with Atlanta (trying to prove himself in the NFL?), then tailed off to between 2-6 TDs (with an average of 3.6 per season) in all the seasons where he played most of the games in that given season (until 2010).  

Pre-jail, Vick averaged 0.28 rushing TDs per game…or 4.5 rushing TDs for a 16-game clip. Aaron Rodgers has averaged 4.0 rushing TDs per game in his four years as a starter. Tom Brady had three-times the rushing TDs that Vick did last season. Vick’s high rushing-TD count in 2010 was a statistical aberration (that Philly is paying dearly for now), his 2010 was not “the norm” for him.

Do you know which QBs pile up huge rushing stats? QBs who aren’t as good passing the ball – i.e. Vick, Tebow, Newton (yes, Newton…it’s true, look at the stats from Week-5 on = 222.1 passing yards per game, and 10 TD/15 INT vs. teams with a winning record in 2011).  Just a crazy opinion — QBs who are weaker passers have a flight (run) versus fight (throw) the ball mental mechanism. Their subconscious trusts the feet over arm (and probably, rightfully so).

If you summarize that RG3 is a better passer than all the three elite running-QBs mentioned (and we do), then RG3 is not as likely to “take off” running…and if RG3 isn’t running, then he becomes just another good Fantasy Football passing-QB.

If RG3 is a better passer with great mobility, then perhaps he is Steve Young? Steve Young averaged 0.25 rushing TDs per game in 13 seasons with the 49ers…a 4.0 per 16-game season pace. Again, I say – Aaron Rodgers has averaged 4.0 TDs per season the last four years as a starter.

Steve Young also averaged 23.9 rushing yards per game as the 49ers QB, with a career high season of 537 yards rushing (16 games played)…and most of his rushing totals in a season were between 150-250 yards rushing with a couple of 400+ rushing yards seasons sprinkled in. Aaron Rodgers has averaged 18.3 rushing yards per game in his four seasons as a starter with 200-360 yards rushing per season.

I keep comparing Aaron Rodgers in this mix, because Andrew Luck has deceptive speed/athleticism like Rodgers. Luck has speed measurements like an above-average TE or “big-WR.” Luck averaged 25.2 yards per game rushing in college over three seasons, and rushed for 34.9 yards per game in the 2010 season. Andrew Luck has “upside” with his mobility, and size.

If RG3 is not Cam Newton or Michael Vick as a runner, and he is more like Steve Young…and Luck like Aaron Rodgers – it may mean that RG3 picks up 1-3 Fantasy Football PPG at best over Luck in the rushing department? That’s nice, but if Luck throws for one more TD per game and/or RG3 has one more INT per game, then the potential RG3 rushing advantage is neutralized for Fantasy Football purposes.

 

Injury Risk…

Obviously, injuries can strike any player at any time. However, if we were an insurance company looking to quote a policy on these QBs, which one do you think we would charge a higher premium on?  

Who’s more of an injury-risk — the 15+ pounds more solid, less apt to run, Andrew Luck…or the 1-2 inches smaller, more apt to take off running, Robert Griffin? The more that RG3 “takes off,” the more your Fantasy Football investment is “at risk.”  

The risk wouldn’t matter if this was a Michael Vick versus Jay Cutler Fantasy Football debate. You take Vick, and you can always find a Cutler equivalent. In a Vick versus Aaron Rodgers Fantasy Football debate…there is no debate, there is limited opportunities at a QB like Rodgers. Luck versus Griffin has a lot of 2011 preseason Rodgers versus Vick Fantasy Football debate element to it. 

 

The Better Passer…

Everyone is on-board with RG3 as a solid NFL passer, and we are too. We just think Luck is far superior.

If all the passing skills/instincts were judged equal, then Luck has the slight NFL advantage by being nearly two-inches taller with a much larger hand-size measurement. That’s not to say that RG3 is a bust in-waiting, but when trying to assess between two great options…every (seemingly) minor piece of data matters. It also matters that Luck blew away the Wonderlic test, and Griffin’s score is sitting on the cusp of historical trouble. Luck measures bigger and smarter, and you want that in a franchise/Dynasty QB.  

 

Ben Franklin says…

There is the old decision making tool from Ben Franklin where you take a piece of paper and draw line down the middle and make two columns to list all of the pros and cons of the decision and then assign an importance value to each item listed — which ever side scores the highest, that’s the decision to make (according to Ben). If you ran this Ben Franklin litmus test with Luck versus Griffin…it would line up heavily toward pro-Luck.

  • Luck is taller, physically bigger-framed, tested smarter, has larger hands, plays in a dome, and has an easier division of opponents to face (traditionally).
  • Griffin is straight-line foot speed faster (debatably quicker with agility times), plays in colder weather in a traditionally tough/rough division, and he may or may not have a meddlesome coach who might “over-coach” him.

 

If I were to press our computer for a typical Fantasy Football stat line in a game for Luck and Griffin (after their rookie season), it would look as follows (per game):

315 yards passing, 15 yards rushing, 0.15 rushing TDs, 2.5 TD/0.8 INT = Andrew Luck

250 yards passing, 30 yards rushing, 0.30 rushing TDs, 2.0 TD/1.0 INT = Robert Griffin

  • 23.4 to 20.8 = advantage to Luck in traditional FF scoring (4-points per pass TD)
  • 28.4 to 24.8 = advantage to Luck in 6-points per pass TD scoring system for FF
  •  Further advantage to Luck if 300+ yard bonuses are in effect.

 

Both QBs project to be high scorers in Fantasy Football, that’s why if you can swing it…you should try to acquire both in a Dynasty League. You may never see an opportunity like this again for years. Matt Barkley and Landry Jones “ain’t” Luck and/or Griffin.

 

With the first pick in the Dynasty Rookie Draft, you should select…

In theory, you can’t go wrong with either, but any signs of red-flags are all with Griffin. Robert Griffin is the sexy, “hip” pick, if you are trying to “outthink the room.” Andrew Luck is the “smart money” in the long run for the 2012 Dynasty Rookie Draft. 

www.collegefootballmetrics.com

www.fantasyfootballmetrics.com

Posted in 2012 NFL Draft, Game Recaps, QB | Leave a comment

2012 Dynasty Rookie Draft — WR Mock Draft Rankings 1.0

Posted on May 9, 2012 by R.C. Fischer

tags — dynasty leagues, keeper,  2012 fantasy football, rookie draft

 – See more of our statistical analysis on the 2012 NFL Draft prospects @ www.collegefootballmetrics.com –

 

2012 Dynasty Rookie Draft — WR Mock Draft Rankings 1.0

We have statistically evaluated 98 WR-prospects for their talent level and NFL situation. We have a Dynasty Rookie Draft grade on each of the 98 WRs, and have them listed/ranked in order. For our top-20 WRs, we have written a commentary about each individual WR’s NFL situation and rationale for our computer grading.

The top-20 WRs include — Justin Blackmon, Ryan Broyles, Derek Carrier, Greg Childs, Toney Clemons, Michael Floyd, Chris Givens, Devin Goda, Stephen Hill, T.Y. Hilton, Alshon Jeffery, A.J. Jenkins, Rishard Matthews, Marvin McNutt, Kashif Moore, Dale Moss, Brian Quick, Mohamed Sanu, Jordan White, Kendall Wright.

To find out the proposed order of these top-20 WRs, and why Justin Blackmon is not among our top-5 WRs in the 2012 Dynasty Rookie Draft class… www.collegefootballmetrics.com

 

 

 

Posted in 2012 NFL Draft, Game Recaps, WR | Leave a comment

2012 NFL Draft — Dynasty Rookie Draft TE Rankings 1.0 (5/2/12)

Posted on May 5, 2012 by R.C. Fischer

tags — Dynasty League, Keeper, 2012 Fantasy Football, NFL Draft, NFL Combine, rookie draft, sleepers, IDP

2012 NFL Draft — Dynasty Rookie Draft TE Rankings 1.0 (5/2/12)

We have a write up on each of our top-10 TE-prospects for the 2012 Dynasty Rookie Draft, as well as a statistical ranking of the top-40 rookie TEs with our new “Dynasty Grade” number system. Among the TE names discussed are — Dwayne Allen, Lamont Bryant, Derek Carrier, Josh Chichester, Michael Egnew, Coby Fleener, Ladarius Green, James Hanna, Adrien Robinson, Taylor Thompson. What order are they in? Which ones are “dead money”? Check it out… www.collegefootballmetrics.com

 

Posted in 2012 NFL Draft, Game Recaps, TE | Comments Off

2012 NFL Draft: Draft Grades as of 5-2-2012

Posted on May 5, 2012 by R.C. Fischer

tags — Dynasty League, 2012 Fantasy Football, NFL Draft, NFL Combine, rookie draft, sleepers, IDP

The comedy of NFL draft grading (to me) is…by what standards are we using to grade this?

Over 200+ prospects will be selected in an NFL draft, and most of those players will be irrelevant within 0-3 seasons. Most draft picks become a failure on some level, and are expected to be…so how exactly does most every national media analysis rate every team’s draft all between an A and C-?

I was happy with a “C” in college (given my low effort). A “C” wasn’t a failure…but should we consider a “C” as a failure in mainstream NFL Draft analysis if the lowest grades given are a “C”? Why not give an “F” to more teams…as many of these drafts will be considered an “F” when we look back historically?

The reason (to me) why you see 90-99% of national media draft grades given as either a “B” or “C” grades is because most draft media doesn’t have a clue of players from Round-2 on. The mainstream has their parroted top prospect list they all share, and if an NFL team dares to break ranks with this holy list…well, then they did a “bad” job in the draft. They defied “the list.”

The declared draft “winners” are typically teams who stuck to the pre-ordained script and/or the team which took more players in rounds 2-3 that “fell”. “Fell” means the mainstream media actually recognizes the name (or it just works that the prospect is deemed good if they attended LSU or Alabama).

On top of that, I think the mainstream also doesn’t want to offend anyone who is a fan of a particular team. If you want to get a rabid individual fan up in arms, grade their teams draft an “F” and watch the feedback.

The mainstream also doesn’t want to tick off an NFL franchise and get “the league” or a team “mad” at them. Grading everything a “B” or a “C” leaves less room to be wrong and get yelled at, it’s the safe way out…it’s bland (by design). Grading something an A+ or an F- requires a deeper rationale’/understanding…and some “onions.” NFL Draft grading in the mainstream is an odd version of “everyone’s a winner” and we all get a participation trophy.

Anyone ever received a work evaluation on like a 1-5 scale, and you never get 5-rating in any category…even if you’re the top person in your job within the company? They don’t want to give a “5,” you might not work as hard, it might go to your head is the brilliant rationale’. I once tried to give my superior employees a “5″ out of five on an evaluation when working in one particular corporation, and I don’t think I’ve ever been reprimanded as much by upper management for anything I’d ever done “wrong”.

It’s an intentional manipulation of the facts in the name of “playing it safe.” It happens on the job at corporation, and it happens in NFL Draft analysis.

When it comes down to it, between not wanting to be wrong (alone), or controversial, or angering bosses or NFL franchises…we thus get milk-toast coverage/analysis during and after the draft. Essentially, we are being unintentionally lied to in the name of group-think and “fear.”

That’s not to say that we know better than anyone, but I do know the mainstream reporting is seriously and systematically flawed…thankfully for us here.

 

Our Grading System

When we grade an NFL team’s draft results, we also consider what the team did in the undrafted free agent process as well. The undrafted free agent transactions are not quite confirmed (and can change last minute), so this “prelim” grading is based off of our initial reports of the undrafted prospects signed.

Our overall “grade” is in a percentage form, with 100.0% as the target/goal of a very good/great draft.

Simply stated, we built a statistical model of what a better than average draft outcome looks like and compare against that expected result. To us, a “hoped for” expectation for a superior/solid NFL draft is a franchise landing one “best in class” (at a position not kicker/punter) prospect and a couple top-5 in class prospects along with a few potential contributors who have upside. A team can exceed a 100% grade in our system or drastically underperform that target (and go into the negative grades).

Our draft evaluation models do not care how many picks a team had or when those picks were. Our analysis system only cares about the accumulation of the talent they selected based on our internal grades we have on all the prospects (and if you’re reading our work for the first time, you may or may not know that our prospect evaluations can be/are sometimes radically different than the mainstream).

With that in mind, at this early stage (unofficial as undrafted free agent reports come in) here is the overall board as we see it right now:

…to see this full commentary, players grades by team, and updated overall draft grades by team go to www.collegefootballmetrics.com

Posted in 2012 NFL Draft, Game Recaps | Comments Off

2012 Dynasty Rookie Draft/Fantasy Football: RB Mock Draft 1.0 (4-30-12)

Posted on May 2, 2012 by R.C. Fischer

tags — Dynasty League, keeper, 2012 Fantasy Football, NFL Draft, NFL Combine, rookie draft, sleepers, IDP

We have statistically graded 57 RBs just drafted or signed as undrafted free agents. We not only rank the RBs, but also have developed a statistical talent and situational grade to produce an overall “Dynasty Grade” for each RB. A few of the higher rated mainstream RBs have had their Dynasty valuations wiped out based on the depth chart of the team they just landed on, while others benefitted from a weaker roster of RBs on their new team. We have a smaller write up on each RB in the top-20, and an overall statsitical rating board for all 57 RBs.   

The RBs who have made our 1.0 version of the top-20 (alphabetically) –  Vick Ballard, Bryce Brown, Raymond Carter, Terrence Ganaway, Dan Herron, Ronnie Hillman, LaMichael James, Joe Martinek, Doug Martin, Lamar Miller, Isaiah Pead, Bernard Pierce, Chris Polk, Bobby Rainey, Chris Rainey, Trent Richardson, Evan Rodriquez, Michael Smith, Robert Turbin, David Wilson.

The question is…what order are they in? At least, one of our top-10 RBs will not likely be found in a top-100 list anywhere else. To see who the mystery man is, and to also read a little of why our computer models actually hates this RB class comparative to recent history… www.collegefootballmetrics.com

 

Posted in 2012 NFL Draft, Game Recaps, RB | Comments Off

My 3rd Favorite Dynasty Fantasy Football 2012 Rookie RB Was Drafted In 2009…

Posted on May 2, 2012 by R.C. Fischer

tags — dynasty leagues,keeper,  2012 fantasy football, Bernard Scott, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Dan Herron

 – See more of our statistical analysis on the 2012 NFL Draft prospects @ www.collegefootballmetrics.com –

***Pre-release of home page article***

The Cincinnati Bengals have a storied history of drafting college RBs. Just look at the “home grown” talent in the past 10 years of Bengals draft selections at the RB position:

  • 2003 Jeremi Johnson (118)
  • 2004 Chris Perry (26)
  • 2007 Kenny Irons (49)
  • 2009 Fui Vakapuna (215)
  • 2011 Jay Finley (246)

…and some people want to argue with me in our NFL Draft analysis with the retort — “what do you know anyway“? Possibly not much, but I probably could have had the same batting average (worse case) drafting RBs as the Bengals franchise has in the past decade. A dart and a dart board could have defeated myself and the Bengals franchise.

I did leave one RB off that list above. A name who seems like it belongs there among all the other anonymous RBs the Bengals have taken. That RB is their 2009 6th-round pick RB Bernard Scott of Abilene Christian. I am excluding that name on purpose…because I think Scott might change up that horrible Bengals RB draft pick résumé.

Before I make a pitch that Bernard Scott could be an a tremendous sleeper RB for Fantasy Football 2012, and could be considered the 3rd best RB to take in a Dynasty League rookie draft upcoming (if available), I need to make the “talent case” for Scott. If you buy into my line of thinking, then you may have a very inexpensive “lottery ticket” of a RB to draft/acquire before training camp hits.

Before I go over the talent angle, a quick synopsis of the a “State of the Union” of Fantasy Football RBs in general…

 

The RB Business Valuation Shift (for smarter teams) in the NFL…

We have been taught that RB is the most important position to acquire/secure in Fantasy Football. We have maintained that it is no longer the case. I can feel it “in my gut” by the way that the NFL is going about its business, but our computer analysis has been statistically proving the same case to us for the past couple years.

One (of many) of the reasons that the RB position is crumbling in Fantasy Football value is due to the NFL’s transition to a split RB system. It is a brilliant business move to go to a split RB scenario, or non-reliance on just one main workhorse RB. In a split system, NFL teams are no longer beholden to a single player at a position that is often injured, quickly obsolete (too many “miles”), and/or “high profile” (aka “wants a lot of money”).

The NFL alternative to the “workhorse RB approach” is a “RB by committee,” which is brilliant because it is much cheaper to have 2-3-4 RB options/depth and/or specialists. More RBs provides “insurance”/depth and you are not beholden to one of them in a contract dispute (how’s the CJ2K thing working out?). The problem that this is creating for Dynasty (and traditional) Fantasy Football GMs is that you never know who your RB is going to be from one week to the next. At various points in 2011, were you chasing Earnest Graham or Isaac Redman or Lance Ball or Kevin Smith for Fantasy Football as if the world was going to end if you did not land them in the waiver claim?

Bill Belichick rolls with undrafted free agents, cheap veteran free agents, and/or mid-level draft pick RBs. One week BenJarvus Green-Ellis takes the majority of the carries, the following week it’s Danny Woodhead or Kevin Faulk or Stevan Ridley. The Green Bay Packers have moved in that direction the past few years. On the other hand, the Carolina Panthers have stockpiled 1st-round draft pick RBs and then sign more in free agency. The Cleveland Browns of the world trade away several gold bars for the chance at a RB in the 1st-round of the 2012 draft (well played Minnesota).

The Giants had a split RB system to win the Super Bowl last year with 7th-round draft pick Ahmad Bradshaw and 4th-round pick Brandon Jacobs defeating undrafted RBs BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead. 6th-round draft pick James Starks (pressed into duty when undrafted Ryan Grant got hurt) led the way to a Super Bowl victory the year before for Green Bay. Undrafted RBs Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell and a lesser-used 1st-round pick Reggie Bush won the 2010 Super Bowl. Willie Parker (undrafted) and Mewelde Moore defeated an old Edgerrin James and 5th-round pick Tim Hightower in 2009. The recent tendency of top NFL teams is to not invest a lot in the RB position, and rather to ride hot-hands and use various “specialists” in certain situations like a Darren Sproles or Mike Tolbert.

For Fantasy Football, trying to figure out the situations where an NFL team has only one obvious RB to carry the load, whether it happens by design, injury, or crappy personnel moves is getting more and more maddening…and ever changing.

We all know/suspect the 2012 teams where one RB is going to the the heavy workload — Michael Turner, Ray Rice, Trent Richardson, DeMarco Murray (if healthy), MJD, Adrian Peterson, Darren McFadden, LeSean McCoy, Ryan Mathews, Marshawn Lynch, Chris Johnson, maybe Steven Jackson (due to age) and maybe Roy Helu (coach is insane on RB usage). *Heck, two of these RBs actually saw the playoffs last year (Rice, Turner), and one of them even won a playoff game (Rice)!

That list above is a quick speculation as of today, but it’s all arguable and I may have missed one. If you take out the RBs who were hurt some/a lot last year and have some 2012 risk, and/or take out the RBs that are aging quick; you then have a lot shorter list of a “for sure” main workhorse RB you can count on for Fantasy Football.

If I were to run through all the top Fantasy Football QB-WR-TE names, there would be nowhere near the amount of key players at those positions wiped out to injury as the RBs were last year. Last year started with (thought to be) top RBs Arian Foster, Jamaal Charles, Peyton Hillis among the injured and ended with Adrian Peterson, Darren McFadden, Rashard Mendenhall among the names all going down…and we don’t know if most of them will ever be the same again.

The workhorse RB that you can count on is becoming a dinosaur in the NFL…and in Fantasy Football.

Look at the just-completed NFL Draft — Doug Martin will compete for time with LeGarrette Blount. No matter how (overly) excited we get over the “fresh” rookie (Martin), we conveniently forget that Blount was the best rookie RB in the NFL just two years ago (and was undrafted). To automatically think Martin will get 300+ carries and Blount watches from the sidelines is naive.

Did you like LaMichael James for 2012? Now he’s a 3rd-4th RB on San Fran.

Did you like David Wilson, how long will he be behind Ahmad Bradshaw before you find out if he is any good or not?

We really liked Bernard Pierce, but I wonder whether he will ever touch the ball in Baltimore with Ray Rice and Anthony Allen there.

Ronnie Hillman is nice, but do you really think Willis McGahee and Knowshon Moreno just go to the bench to watch Hillman play in 2012? You get the point…

The new way to do Fantasy Football RB depth is to grab the for-sure (if anything is for-sure) main-carry RB wherever you can. However, the other 80-90%+ of the time you now have to go fishing for the next potential RB to “pop” and that becomes that main-carry RB out of seemingly nowhere. You have to try to outthink the roster situations. You have to know who has “game changing” talent and who doesn’t. A RB with talent alone means little if they are 2-3 other RBs just as talented on the same roster splitting carries/trying to get noticed.

For Fantasy Football off-season brilliance, you need to find hidden RB talent on an NFL roster that has over-hyped/over-valued RBs, and then grab that RB ahead of everyone else. You don’t want to be left perpetually chasing Ryan Torain or Maurice Morris week-to-week like they were Barry Sanders.

Now that the NFL Draft dust has settled, I think I have just the RB who is sitting in the low-value situation, but could run for 1,000+ yards this year — Cincinnati Bengals RB Bernard Scott.

 

Bernard Scott Talent Bio…

First things first – Bernard Scott had issues with allegedly hitting a coach at Central Arkansas in 2004, and then also being involved in couple of misdemeanors as well…and thus getting him bounced from his initial college team. Scott has been in the NFL for three seasons and has not been in any trouble (that we’re aware of). I’m not a fan of troubled players, but his issues were from years ago, and has had no signs of trouble since. What I am a fan of…amazing productivity.

At Central Arkansas, Scott was the conference Freshman of the Year (and then booted from the team). Scott then went to Blinn College and led all of JUCO with 1,892 yards and 27 TDs. He was then able to transfer to Abilene Christian, where he ran for a league record 2,165 yards and 39 total TDs as a junior. In his final year, Scott won the D-II “Heisman” with an astonishing 2,156 yards rushing and 826 yards receiving…2,981 yards total with a combined 34 TDs (rush + rec). In his final three years of college, Scott produced 100 TDs.

Scott was an NFL Combine invitee in 2009, and ran a 4.44 40-time with great 10 & 20-yard times and amazing agility. Scott also benched a very impressive 21 reps for his 5’10, 200-pound frame. Physically, Scott measures as an equivalent with the current good/great +/- 200-pound RBs in the NFL.

Scott was not just dominant at the lower levels of college play — he was ground-breaking. Athletically, Scott had one of the best NFL Combine efforts of any RB in 2009…and all that got him a 6th-round look from the Bengals.

Scott made the Bengals roster in 2009, and by Week-10 of his rookie season he was pressed into action due to injuries to the starters. In his debut as an RB starter versus the Raiders, Scott ran for 119 yards and 1 TD, plus caught 3 passes for 32 yards…and returned a kick for 15-yards.

The week before his initial RB start, Scott took a kickoff back for a 96-yard TD against the Steelers. Scott followed his 100+ yard rushing game starter debut with an 87 rushing yard game against Oakland, but was also hurt in that game and didn’t play again until the playoffs (as a backup, 6 carries for 20 yards vs. the Jets).

In 2010, as Cedric Benson marched onto more “3 yards and a cloud of dust” running efforts, and Scott was “kept in the garage” getting a small handful of carries throughout the season.

In 2011, Scott was in the garage again until Benson was suspended for a game. Filling in as a starter for Benson, Scott had one of the best rushing efforts the Seattle-defense had allowed all year with 22 carries for 76 yards (also the 6th best rushing total in a game by a CINN RB in 2011). I watched every carry of that game on tape, and I was pleased with his aggressive/physically tough running style…and then outraged at why the Bengals will not give Scott more opportunities. As soon as Benson came back, back in the garage went Scott.

Scott has had three career NFL games where he has received 15+ carries in a game, and has delivered 94.0 rushing yards per game and 4.6 yards per carry in those three chances. When Scott has been given the opportunity, he has delivered. Scott has delivered for the past 8-years of his football life when given a chance. Could 2012 be his first real opposrtunity in the NFL?

 

The 2012 Bernard Scott scenario…

The Bengals have finally jettisoned Cedric Benson, and his (almost) never getting over 4.0 yards per carry self, off the roster (hopefully).

The “big” Bengals 2012 free agent move was picking up another “3 yards and a cloud of dust” RB in BenJarvus Green-Ellis. You will find out this year how overrated BJGE is when not running behind a top flight offensive line and playing with the greatest QB of our era.

I was waiting to see what the Bengals would do in the 2012 NFL Draft, and their only move of note was drafting mediocre Dan Herron.

The table is now set (at this moment). Scott has only to overcome the slow Green-Ellis and the mediocre rookie Herron. This should be a no-brainer if Scott is as good as our computer models are showing, but nothing is ever assured with the Bengals.

The Bengals have stuck with Scott through the last three years, and he has played in most every game to some degree. Scott will be the only true “speed-RB” on the roster (as of now), and could be a “savior” of sorts for the Cincinnati offense. Scott is also a free agent after this season. As well, the schedule has set up very nicely for a Bengals Fantasy Football RB as the Bengals second Steelers and Ravens games are Week 16-17. There are a lot of positives for Scott in 2012 at this moment.

 

Acquiring Bernard Scott right now…

My sense is that Bernard Scott is not a hot name in Dynasty Leagues right now. A GM with Scott would look at the Bengals roster and likely give credence to BJGE as the main RB and now also sees Herron drafted, and thus that GM would probably conclude Scott will be cut…or just barely used like the past three seasons. Scott’s price tag should be very reasonable to acquire, if not dirt-cheap.

Potentially, Scott is not on anyone’s roster in your league. If so, after Trent Richardson (who is an obvious primary in Cleveland) and maybe after Doug Martin (who might be a primary if Blount blows up)…Bernard Scott may be the best RB in the upcoming Dynasty Rookie Draft (for those who can take players on that are not true rookies).

CAUTION — There are no guarantees with the Bengals on anything. Scott not getting many opportunities over the past few years doesn’t give us a 100% warm and fuzzy feeling that they believe in him fully. The Bengals could cut him…and I would be only half shocked to see it happen. If we’re right, Scott won’t be cut…in fact, he may be an instant split with BJGE. If Scott gets more looks in camp and early on in games — we think Scott will pull away from all the plodding RBs on the Bengals roster and could go on to a nice Fantasy Football 2012 payday.

It shouldn’t cost you much right now to kick the tires on Bernard Scott for 2012, but don’t let him get to preseason camp and start having stories begin to surface about how good he looks or the planned 2012 carries he might get…or the Scott-acquiring price goes up ten-fold.

Posted in 2012 NFL Draft, Cincinnati Bengals, Game Recaps, RB | Comments Off

2012 NFL Draft — Statistically Grading the Top-5 Best and Worst Teams (prelim results)

Posted on April 30, 2012 by R.C. Fischer

tags — Dynasty League, 2012 Fantasy Football, NFL Draft, NFL Combine, rookie draft, sleepers, IDP

*When we grade an NFL team’s draft results, we also consider what they did in the undrafted free agent process as well. The undrafted free agent transactions are not quite confirmed, so this “prelim” grading is based off of our initial reports of the undrafted prospects signed.

Our overall “grade” is in a percentage form, with 100.0% as the target/goal of a very good/great draft. Simply stated, we built a statistical model of what a better than average draft outcome looks like.

Our draft evaluation models do not care how many picks a team had or when those picks were. Our analysis system only cares about the accumulation of talent selected based on our internal grades we have on all the prospects (and if you’re reading our work for the first time, you may or may not know that our prospect evaluations can be/are sometimes radically different than the mainstream).

With that in mind, at this early stage (unofficial as undrafted free agent reports come in), our top and bottom five team draft grades:

—–Our Full 2012 Draft Grades will be posted at our sister site  www.collegefootballmetrics.com —-

BEST:

1) 161.0% Philadelphia — We think Mychal Kendricks will be an elite NFL LB. Nick Foles grades as a possible NFL elite QB, and we don’t bestow that grade lightly in our computer evaluations. We see as many as nine useful NFL prospects, with a couple of them showing some probability to become NFL great/elite.

2) 157.3% Seattle — The single most intriguing draft of 2012. Either this will get Pete Carroll fired in 1-2 years or winning the Super Bowl (if they ever land a true QB). The Seahawks essentially took a majority of prospects that our computer had the dichotomy of having some heavy elite measurements/metrics on, but that also had at least one monster red-flag issue. Bruce Irvin, Russell Wilson, Jaye Howard, and a huge favorite of ours Korey Toomer could all be superstars…or just great on paper. Winston Guy and Greg Scruggs are smart “lottery tickets” as well. This is an interesting and anxious crossroads for the Pete Carroll regime…

3) 150.0% Minnesota — The Vikings basically started the draft by taking three players we considered “best in class.” We think Josh Robinson was the best CB in this draft, and is a smaller version of Darrelle Revis. Greg Childs, if healthy, is a solid NFL WR with upside.

4) 135.4% Houston — Whitney Mercilus and Brandon Brooks were “best in class” for us at their respective positions. I have no idea why the Texans took DeVeir Posey that high…or at all. The computer scouting grades on Jared Crick as a DE was not good, but as a DT-prospect, we see the possibilities of Crick as a very good/nimble DT….with risk of being a little small to become a great NFL DT.

5) 117.1% Tampa Bay — The Buccaneers did not make one “bad” draft pick in the entire draft, according to our computer analysis (and we show most teams have between 3-5 mostly useless picks per year). Our computer scouting models sees some level of value in every pick TB made. There have been no undrafted free-agent signings of note that we’ve seen.

WORST 

1)  0.7% New Orleans — Did Roger Goodell also ban the Saints from the 2012 NFL Draft as well? Corey White looks useful, and that’s about it. There is not one player we see to get remotely excited about. Wow, what a last few months for the Saints…

2) 18.3% Arizona — Our computers models show moderate grades on Michael Floyd, and sees the upside possibilities of Jamell Fleming and Justin Bethel. It is not a proper analysis of the Arizona draft to proclaim, “Wow, Floyd and Fitzgerald…how can they be stopped”? This is the same theory that brought us Miles Austin + Dez Bryant would make the Cowboys unstoppable.

We aren’t as smitten with Floyd as the mainstream before the off-field issues, much less with the troubles. I could see Fleming and Bethel possibly making our low grade look bad, but in the totality of it all our computer wasn’t enamored with this collection of prospects.

3) 22.0% Atlanta – There is a lot riding on Peter Konz to make this draft work, and he’s a talent, but a risky proposition. Outside of Konz and maybe FB Bradie Ewing (and how important is FB in the modern NFL?), our computer doesn’t see a ton of talent here.

4) 32.9% Jacksonville – Our computer is not overly high on Justin Blackmon, so that’s going to have us differing from the mainstream. The rest of the Jags draft was mostly a collection of useful talent, including some nice gambles in undrafted free agency (Nowak, Rosario, Carter), but there is not a home run prospect visible in our analysis (again, we see Blackmon as good-not-great). We already made our mandatory sarcastic punter joke the day of the pick, so we won’t go there again.

5) 36.6% Kansas City — We respect the gamble on Dontari Poe, and if Poe comes through it changes everything, but for now we have mediocre grades on Poe so it drags our KC grade down. After Poe, there was a string of players taken, that I’m surprised Scott Pioli took…none that will make an NFL-impact in our estimation. We like the undrafted free agents better than the picks — Cam Holland is our top rated center, and early reports show he was signed by the Chiefs.

 

Posted in 2012 NFL Draft, Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Game Recaps, Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Comments Off

Key Undrafted Free Agent Signings To Keep a Fantasy Football Eye On

Posted on April 29, 2012 by R.C. Fischer

tags — Dynasty League, 2012 Fantasy Football, NFL Draft, NFL Combine, rookie draft, sleepers, IDP

Some of our computer scouting model top-5 players at a given position went undrafted, and that’s not a complete shock as it happens every year. “Drafted” versus undrafted status does not equal validation of an NFL-prospect in our world.

According to the initial transaction reports, here are the undrafted Free Agents we are following for real 2012+ impact in the NFL, or a possible disruption to a team’s current depth chart… (in no particular order)

RB Raymond Carter, Colorado — Jacksonville Jaguars

WR Nelson Rosario, UCLA — Jacksonville Jaguars

WR David Douglas, Arizona — NY Giants

RB Joe Martinek, Rutgers — NY Giants

WR Dale Moss, South Dakota — Green Bay Packers

WR Chris Owusu, Stanford — SF 49ers

S Matt Daniels, Duke — St. Louis Rams

OLB Sammy Brown, Houston — St. Louis Rams

ILB Noah Keller, Ohio — St. Louis Rams

WR Jermaine Kearse, Washington — Seattle Seahawks

WR Cody Pearcy, Huntington — Atlanta Falcons

CB Derrius Brooks, Western Kentucky — Cincinnati Bengals

WR Kashif Moore, UConn — Cincinnati Bengals

WR Devin Goda, Slippery Rock — Baltimore Ravens

RB Bobby Rainey, Western Kentucky — Baltimore Ravens

WR Jerrell Jackson, Missouri — Houston Texans

TE Lamont Bryant, James Madison — Baltimore Ravens

RB Jason Ford, Illinois — Houston Texans

WR/TE Derek Carrier, Beloit — Oakland Raiders

DE Adrian Hamilton, Prairie View — Dallas Cowboys

Posted in 2012 NFL Draft, Game Recaps | Comments Off

The Two Redskins Rookie QBs, and Why It’s Brilliant, and the Fantasy Football lesson…

Posted on April 28, 2012 by R.C. Fischer

tags — Dynasty League, 2012 Fantasy Football, NFL Draft, NFL Combine, rookie draft, sleepers, IDP

First, I’ve made the mistake of having the ESPN feed on for my Day-3 watching “pleasure.” My question to ESPN is, “how much is the agent for Kirk Cousins paying for this non-stop Day-3 coverage”? If his agent is not paying, ESPN should send him an invoice. Listening to the ESPN conversations from the pre-draft start to (finally) Cousins being picked, I’m now wondering if the Colts made a mistake going with Andrew Luck at #1 over Cousins.

Now that Cousins has been drafted by the RG3-Redskins, the commentators are not happy that their “Cousins as a starter for a decade” story got stepped on. People have been emailing and texting me asking why this pick was made with RG3 already there. To me, this is another in a series of brilliant moves by Bruce Allen over the past two seasons.

I have never understood why NFL teams and commentators will absolutely recognize how critical the QB position is…we all know it is the make or break franchise position for years/decades. If all that is true, why not take 1-2 extra “lottery ticket” QBs. The world is wrong on drafting QBs all the time, so why lock yourself into one QB for years before admitting a mistake (I’m looking at you Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cleveland, Miami, etc…)?

The mainstream will scream that investing all your money in one company’s stock/program is ridiculous (see Enron or Madoff). Yet, when it comes to an NFL QB…we are fine with “all our eggs in one basket”? It makes no sense.

If Cousins beats out RG3, great…then you have your QB there. This 2-QB move also gives you injury protection, trade chip potential…I think it is a completely brilliant tactical move.

I know; it’s an added pressure of a QB competition. Why are QBs immune from a team taking several prospects at any position? The 49ers have like nine solid RBs, but I didn’t see a 30-minute  ESPN discussion on Kendall Hunter’s psyche when LaMichael James was selected?

In fact, this 2+ QB thing is what we need to consider in traditional Fantasy Football as well. Why not lock in your top QB in Round 1-2 of the traditional Fantasy Draft (or start up Dynasty league), and then if you see an opportunity to snag another great QB in Round 5 or 6 of the Fantasy Draft…why not take him? Why fret over which crappy RB or WR of the “best available” you should take”? Why not select (examples) Big Ben or Sam Bradford or whomever, and then trade them quick within in Week 1-2 for whatever it looks like you need a RB/WR when the QB panic sets in for half the league you’re in? You know Big Ben will have trade value…Jonathan Stewart or BenJarvus Green-Ellis or Malcom Floyd or whomever you would scoop in round 5-6, you can find them on waivers every other week.

We are not Kirk Cousins fans here, but I respect and admire the strategy. The TV commentators squawking about it lets me know the Redskins made a smart move.

Does this also mean that John Beck is no longer an elite NFL QB for Shanny, or are RG3 and Cousins his plan-B & C just in case Beck doesn’t become that elite QB he promised? Sorry, had to take a Shanny shot since he screws me at least once every year with his schizophrenic RB usage in Fantasy every week for the past two seasons.

 

Posted in 2012 NFL Draft, Game Recaps, QB, Washington Redskins | Comments Off