One Complaint about the Panthers, which is also the one Fantasy Football thought today 5/20/13 — Jonathan Stewart, and all Carolina RBs

Posted on May 20, 2013 by R.C. Fischer
tags — 2013 Fantasy Football Jonathan Stewart dynasty DeAngelo Williams auction Stevan Ridley handcuff LeGarrette Blount auction Shane Vereen

 

Twitter @FFMetrics

I was doing research on RBs for Fantasy Football 2013, when I was looking at one of our computer’s single favorite NFL RBs — the Carolina Panthers’ Jonathan Stewart.

Jonathan Stewart is physically constructed to be one of the best RBs in the NFL. He is 235-pounds, with tremendous strength (28 bench reps at his NFL Combine), and he posted a 4.46 40-time. He is almost a perfectly constructed RB, physically. I have been the “boy crying wolf” for years on Stewart for Dynasty and Traditional Fantasy Football. There have been hot moments/great FF games with Stewart, but nothing really sustainable. The Panthers have always preferred DeAngelo Williams (and his one really good season in 2008), at a minimum they have split carries between the two RBs for years.

Here we are in 2013, and nothing has changed. In fact, the Panthers just keep stacking talented RBs by drafting Oregon RB Kenjon Barner this year. They have Stewart, Williams, Tolbert, Barner…four NFL starting-level RBs. Make it five starting RBs when you add the rushing TD-vulture Cam Newton (running them in, because he cannot pass the ball successfully in congestion for TDs). There is no sustainable Fantasy Football hope with any Panthers RB in 2013. It’s a shame; especially for Stewart.

The above point is obvious enough to most all of us. What I would like to complain about is something I have railed on before — what in the world is Panthers’ management doing? Honestly, the personnel/business mistakes they are making at RB are nothing short of abject fiscal incompetence.

It’s not an issue that the Panthers have a lot of RB talent assembled…kudos on that. They do know that there is only one ball, and their QB keeps it most of the time, right? It’s not a problem with the RB talent they have. It is the payroll they are wasting on all these RBs. In this era of cheap RBs, in this era of cheap payroll draft picks, in this era of interchangeable RBs, and in this era of split-role RBs — who in the world lays out big bucks for a RB any more? The Panthers — that’s who.

People fall all over themselves trying to copy the New England Patriots. “Hey, they got two TEs, and we do too!!” Yippie! The key to the Pats offense is not that they have two TEs, because everyone has two TEs; it’s Tom Brady and the superior talent of Rob Gronkowski…it’s not just the fact of having two TEs. Did anyone see a giant fall-off in the Pats offense when Gronkowski left last year? Nope.

Why isn’t anyone jumping up and down to copy the Patriots RB business strategy? I will paraphrase what I think their plan is — “RBs are a dime-a-dozen, and we ain’t paying squat for any of them.” To the Patriots, RBs are like Dixie cups, or paper plates, or toilet paper — used up and quickly discarded. They are not to be used, saved, re-washed, and used long-term…and paying more for them after they have been used successfully.

It would be one thing if this multi-RB attack was leading to a wild level of win-loss success. Then everyone in the NFL would copy the Panthers RB philosophy. However, there is a reason why the Panthers are consistently drafting bottom-10 lately. The RB as “center of universe/offense” theory left a long time ago…and was probably always a fraud.

Last year, the Panthers gave Jonathan Stewart a six-year/$36M contract…with $11M guaranteed (and another $12M possible with roster bonuses). That awful contract, in this era, on a team with a QB who runs the ball all the time anyway, is nothing short of pure incompetence. Again, I love Stewart — but one of the highest paid RBs in the NFL? Why?

It’s not just the Stewart contract. It is also the 2011 contract of DeAngelo Williams too (again, who was good in 2008-09) for five years and $43M, with $16M guaranteed (and another $5M in roster guarantees possible). Just a scant 1-2 years later from the original conract signed — discussions were taking place about whether the Panthers should release Williams and eat the guarantees.

With both Stewart and Williams on-board, and their pairing being meaningless for wins and losses for years, the Panthers grabbed another RB we like — Mike Tolbert. He has a more reasonable four-year/$10M contract, but was he a true “need”? The Panthers barely used Tolbert in 2012.

In 2013, The Panthers top-3 RBs will cost $10M. In 2014, they will cost $14M+.

In 2013, the top-3 Panthers RBs will cost $7.4M guaranteed (actual and roster guaranteed bonuses). In 2014, the same three RBs will cost nearly $10M in guaranteed money…with more to come in 2015 and beyond. By 2015, the Panthers will have gone through another house cleaning of coaches and management, so there could be a lot of dead money eaten in 2015 with the release of all these unnecessary RBs.

If I am a Panthers fan, I am beyond incensed at what is happening to my team. These RBs are tying up valuable payroll, and handcuffing the team from moving forward. The Panthers were 10th in the NFL in rushing yards per game, and over a third of them came from their QB.

By contrast, the Patriots will spend approx. $3M in total payroll on their top-3 RBs in 2013 (Vereen, Ridley, Blount) — $7M less than the Panthers. Of that $3M spend for New England in 2013, approx. $1M is guaranteed for 2013 ($6M less than the Panthers).

If the Panthers cut all their RBs tomorrow, they would have to eat over $25M of payroll. If the Patriots did the same, it would cost them $23M less than the Panthers…just $2M to cut their top-3 RBs.

Oh yeah — the Patriots rushed for more yards per game in 2012 than the Panthers did. 

One bad contract (DeAngelo Williams), maybe, maybe I could forgive. But to then do the same thing with Jonathan Stewart, when there was no reason to…makes no sense. The Panthers franchise is/has been spiraling towards an Oakland, NY Jets, Jacksonville level of “bad” the last few years. The Panthers are inching dangerously closer to being firmly mentioned with that group; and they are getting there one RB at-a-time…  

 

Posted in Carolina Panthers, New England Patriots, RB | Leave a comment

Undrafted Free Agents Review for Fantasy Football 2013: New England Patriots

Posted on May 19, 2013 by R.C. Fischer
tags — 2013 NFL Draft, 2013 Dynasty Rookie Draft

 

Twitter @FFMetrics, @CFBMetrics

All college prospects for the NFL are statistically profiled, graded, and ranked by position at our sister website – www.collegefootballmetrics.com

 

RB Quintin Hines, Akron — speed in the 4.4s, suspect agility, and under-sized at 194-pounds. We are not seeing much here. Weaker performance metrics in a mid-major conference.

TE Zach Sudfeld, Nevada — He did catch 8 of his teams 24 TD passes in games he played in 2012, with an overall very good 45 rec. for 598 yards on the season, but his physical measurables preclude him from being an NFL TE. A 6’6″+, 250+ pound TE that is a 4.8+ runner with weak agility. Sudfeld has a thinner-framed NFL body, and if he bulks up more, he could wind up as an even slower runner. His size will dictate a 3rd-string TE status, but he will not be a high-level Fantasy Football entity.

TE Brandon Ford, Clemson — Ford is a decent TE prospect, but nothing special. A smaller 6’3″+ TE with 4.7+ speed and average agility. He was a solid performer for Clemson, but for the NFL — he would be a mediocre/surprise weapon at best in an offense…not a feature TE/weapon. The Pats are already loaded at TE as it is.

RB Akeem Shavers, Purdue — (originally signed by TB, since picked up by NE) Respectable athleticism as a 4.4+ 40-time runner with good agility and a decent bench press (19 reps) for his 5’10″, 198-pound frame. Shavers is a poor man’s Shane Vereen…of sorts. He might have made the Bucs roster given their shortage of RB talent/depth, but he has little chance to make the Pats roster at RB. Belichick may be looking at him as a CB conversion prospect as well.

DT Dwayne Cherrington, Miss State — Far too slow and under-sized to make an NFL roster. Will not make the Pats, should be an early cut.

WR T.J. Moe, Missouri — One of our top-50 prospects for the 2013 Dynasty Rookie Draft. The latest WR prospect to be claimed as “another Wes Welker.” However, this is a pretty accurate “claim” in our computer’s estimation. We did a full length scouting report on Moe months ago, and I have to tell you — this could be one of the steals of the undrafted free agent pool. The only problem is that the Patriots have like 57 interesting, plausible WRs on the roster suddenly. I don’t know how Moe breaks through on the Pats. One of the more unique scouting metrics of any prospect we looked at this year — see www.collegefootballmetrics.com for the full report.

WR Kenbrell Thompkins, Cincinnati — Thompkins has some interesting physical measurables — a 4.4 runner with great agility at 6’0′+, 195-pounds. There is something to work with here, but as mentioned above — the Pats are loaded with WR prospects. There is no way Thompkins can make this roster. He will get chances elsewhere. Our scouting models say he doesn’t have the hands, or the frame to consistently succeed in the NFL, but there is some data to suggest it’s slightly possible that he might.

CB Stephon Morris, Penn State — a diminutive 5’8″, 188-pound speedster CB. There are a million speedy CB prospects anymore, and Morris is one of them — just under-sized and nothing electric about his on-field performance. He could catch on a roster, but not likely to become an NFL starter.

SS Kanorris Davis, Troy — could be a backup safety in the NFL, or a low-level starter on a team in need. Davis is a little too slow (4.5s+ runner) to be a high-end NFL safety. Was a linebacker in college, but is too small to play the position (210+ pounds) in the NFL.

Posted in 2013 NFL Draft, New England Patriots | Leave a comment

One Complaint about the state of Minnesota + One Fantasy Football thought 5/18/13 — Mike Goodson

Posted on May 18, 2013 by R.C. Fischer
tags — 2013 Fantasy Football Mike Goodson dynasty Chris Ivory auction

 

Twitter @FFMetrics

It’s a slow news cycle period for NFL/FF over the next few weeks, so to keep engaged between all the 2013 Draft Guide research; I am throwing out some quick hit thoughts (pardon the typos) to get us through this “dead period.” Enjoy…

For all those that guzzled down the Dynasty Kool-Aid on Mike Goodson a few months ago, but listened to our advice to avoid getting worked up on him — or trading him ASAP on great hype value after the Jets signing…you’re welcome. His Friday am arrest for possession of drugs and loaded handguns…when he was found in an SUV that was parked in the middle of the road…does not bode well for his NFL future.

Mike Goodson is not that great an NFL talent, and there was no way the Jets would go into the season with Goodson as their workhorse. Thus, their trade for Chris Ivory (stock up today).

The Panthers love them some RBs, but dealt Goodson away for near nothing years ago. The Raiders have nothing…and let him walk. The franchise that is arguably the single worst run NFL team in existence, the Jets, then signed Goodson to a pretty favorable contract in this era of cheap, bountiful RB options. When Carolina and Oakland pass on you, but the Jets roll out the welcome mat — well, you are then officially at an NFL rock bottom value.

The Mike Goodson contract was a joke in this era of RB availability. The Mark Sanchez and Santonio Holmes deals are two of the worst contracts in the NFL. The drafting of Geno Smith is almost apropos for the dumpster fire fracnhise known as the NY Jets.

If you think NFL teams “know what they are doing,” just take a gander at the NY Jets self-induced implosion as proof that not all teams “know what they are doing.” I would advance that NFL franchises are like most any businesses/corporations in America – bureaucratic  nepotistic, stodgy, short-term results panicked, and generally ill-run.

I’m not anti-business. I love capitalism with a passion. I love innovative companies and approaches. I am anti-poorly run businesses, led by uptight middle-managers, that think they are awesome.

================

Speaking of the worst run businesses in America; that think they are awesome…

I caught a story today that showed that the state of Minnesota is looking raise taxes on cigarettes from $1.23 to $2.83 (+$1.60 per pack) to help close the gap left behind from the earlier attempts to pay for the stadium through electronic pulltab and bingo games.

 What first to talk about that’s insane about this story…

 a) If having a football stadium is such an economic boon, why does the state not have any money to pay for it naturally? Go Vikings (insert sound of horn blowing here)!

 b) Why is the state even paying for a football team’s stadium? I get the real “why,” because of the political fallout…but once again, the government (aka the real worst run business in America) makes horrible, short-sighted, sweetheart deals…and never makes any money off of them. The never-ending (to the gov’t) well of cash known as the “working class” will be left to clean up/pay for another mess. Go Vikings (insert sound of horn blowing here)!

 c) Minnesota state government — This is your big plan to raise money/revenues? Electronic pulltab and bingo games? It’s a big shock that those revenues fell short (after political friends and relatives took their cut; which is a given) with those two awesome, riveting fund raisers. I am totally surprised a government economic plan failed…again. Go Vikings (insert sound of horn blowing here)!

d) I get taxing smokers. Smokers are the only people left in society/by the government more vilified than soda drinkers and the Tea Party over the last year or so, but heavily taxing something you earn money from sales on? That’s the plan? We all know a heavy tax will suppress the sales of the item taxed…and thus suppresses the hoped-for tax collections. My kids even know this. Our government, apparently doesn’t. Actually, they do; they just hope you will go along for the ride with asking any questions. Go Vikings (insert sound of horn blowing here)!

The difference between the NY Jets and any government agency or entity is — there is a hope that the Jets will eventually pull their head out of their A — and fire people who need it, trade away bad contracts, totally re-build, and hire the right management team (even if by luck)…and someday become a quality product. Even if 5-10+ years from now. Go Jets (insert someone watching a football game with a fireman’s helmet here)!

A government bureaucracy making radical changes to fix what ails them, or down-sizing…not a chance. Go I.R.S!

This message brought to you from my secluded ranch in the woods of Montana. 

 

Posted in Minnesota Vikings, New York Jets, RB | Leave a comment

One Rant + One Fantasy Football thought 5/17/13 — Jared Cook

Posted on May 17, 2013 by R.C. Fischer
tags — 2013 Fantasy Football Jared Cook dynasty

 

Twitter @FFMetrics

It’s a slow news cycle period for NFL/FF over the next few weeks, so to keep engaged between all the 2013 Draft Guide research; I am throwing out some quick hit thoughts (pardon the typos) to get us through this “dead period.” Enjoy…

So I am driving this morning, and wheeling past a major road construction area that I go past quite often. I couple weeks ago they blocked off an entire road to tear it apart — and in doing so, a little corner McDonald’s leveled it’s own self. I figured they had outgrown that spot, and would use the down time to re-build bigger — as this is a very busy intersection, and this McDonald’s is swamped every time that I look over or visit.

I drive past today and see the “Here we grow again” sign. Really? Can we not come up with a new clever phrase for something under construction? How did the people who came up with “here we grow again” and “pardon our dust” corner the market on kitschy construction phrases?

Additionally, a note to McDonald’s — “Here we grow again.” Do I really need the heads up that you guys are growing? There’s a McDonald’s on every mildly busy street corner in America. Am I supposed to read the sign and think, “Hmmm…what is this McDonald’s place? Whoever they are, I can clearly see they are growing (again). I should check that joint out and see what all the buzz is about.” Hopefully you crazy kids with your nutty burger idea pans out long term.

The Fantasy Football player that I probably have gotten the most question about this off-season is concerning Jared Cook going from TEN to STL. I realize why this is, and it speaks to the intrinsic value of finding a high-quality TE for Fantasy Football. You will get tired of me saying it, but — I can identify 50+ RBs that if given the main workload would be FF stars in a given season (see: Alfred Morris 2012, Michael Bush 2011, LeGarrette Blount 2010 as a few examples). However, I cannot name more than 2-3 long shot TEs who possess the high-end talent and a great team situation to pose a threat to Graham-Gronk-Hernandez for FF 2013, and also have legs to be a sustained FF producer for years.

There is a major problem at the TE position for Fantasy Football down the road as Brady and Brees age. The person who finds the elusive hidden gem TE will potentially rule the FF world for years.

Jared Cook looks like “hope,” and I get it. Amazing physical measurables, a couple of great output games (but many more duds), and now switching teams to the better passing game of STL. Side note — If you think Jared Cook moving from TEN to STL is a godsend for his FF hopes  then why would you have enthusiasm for Kendall Wright or Justin Hunter? Just saying…

There is hope with Cook, but here are the four things that have to come true for Cook to go the next-level:

1) He has to not be a knucklehead off the field. He was underwhelming in college, despite being physically sculpted for dominance. The second he hit the NFL, coaches complained about him as well.

The STL contracts looks like a long-term commitment, but I interpret it as a glorified one-year deal.

2) Sam Bradford has to move to a Brady-Brees, or even Matt Ryan level. He has not shown that propensity in the NFL, but I agree, the possibility does loom for him to take a step to the next-level. For Cook to thrive for FF; Bradford has to lead the way.

3) Jeff Fisher has to become the coach of a freewheeling, pass-oriented offense. His m.o. has been great defense and running the ball primarily. The trend has not been to run a spread offense. If he does, then see point #2 again.

4) If the Rams do amp up there passing game, will Jared Cook be a centerpiece or a fringe Martellus Bennett piece? The elite FF TEs crush the TE field in FF  scoring week-to-week. The solid-good TEs have nothing but heartache, leaving you begging their QBs to please throw your TE a TD pass in any given week.

All four of the above dials have to be switched in the right mode for everything to click and launch Cook among the top 3-4-5 TEs for FF 2013. That’s asking a lot. What do we think will happen with Cook in 2013? You’ll just have to see what the computer says upon release of the 2013 Fantasy Football Draft guide!

Posted in St. Louis Rams, TE | Leave a comment

Undrafted Free Agents Review for Fantasy Football 2013: St. Louis Rams

Posted on May 17, 2013 by R.C. Fischer
tags — 2013 NFL Draft, 2013 Dynasty Rookie Draft

 

Twitter @FFMetrics

All college prospects for the NFL are statistically profiled, graded, and ranked by position at our sister website – www.collegefootballmetrics.com

For two years now, the Rams have done a good-great job in their undrafted free agent selections. I love what the Rams are doing as an organization under Jeff Fisher (T. Austin aside). It’s just that they play in a division with (arguably) the two best teams in all the NFL — SF and SEA.

TE Phillip Lutzenkirchen, Auburn — a 4.9+ 40-time runner, weak agility, and a not an idea size for a high-impact NFL/FF TE at 6’3″+. He does have great hands, and had interesting output in 2011 with 7 TD catches (50%+ of the team’s output in his games played) playing on a porous Auburn passing game. Not probable to have a FF impact.

ILB Jonathan Stewart, Texas A&M — a very good tackler, but measures below-average for athleticism. Decent 40-time, but weak agility and vertical measurements. A college scrapper that will likely be in over his head in the NFL. He may grind his way to NFL value, but likely not any IDP impact.

OLB Phillip Steward, Houston — last year STL snagged Houston OLB Sammy Brown as a UDFA. Brown was a very high output OLB in college, and was a player our computer models really liked. Steward is in that same vein — played at Houston, had crazy on-field output, but moderate measurables. There may be output numbers that the Houston style of play inflates on OLBs…as well as QBs/WRs. We are re-thinking Houston OLB output. Sammy Brown is a better litmus test of this theory to translate to NFL success — if Brown sticks and thrives, then Steward might as well. An interesting watch. Don’t rule this out, but S. Brown is the better gamble of the two.

RB Benny Cunningham, Middle Tennessee State — One of the ten most intriguing players in the 2013 NFL Draft, to us…and goes UDFA. See our 1,000+ word statistical scouting report at www.collegefootball metrics.com.

K Brett Baer, La-Lafayette — arguably the best Kicker in the draft, but goes as a UDFA, and to a team with one of the best kicking prospects (Zuerlein) of the last few years. I cannot imagine Baer makes this team, but he will make some team at some point. Full scouting report on Baer at www.collegefootball metrics.com.

FS/SS Cody Davis, Texas Tech — Davis has some great measurables, and was a good-great player in college. There is a lot to love. There is enough here that warranted a full scouting report at www.collegefootball metrics.com. We think a position change could make Davis an NFL starter; see our report to find out what that is.

CB Ray-Ray Armstrong, Miami — highly overrated CB prospect. Does not have the measurables to be an NFL starter. Off-field troubles won’t help either. We bet against

CB Don Unamba, So Arkansas — measurables warrant him as a 6th DB at best on an NFL roster. 

DT Garrett Goebel, Ohio State — the speed/athleticism of a nose tackle, and the body of a DE. Will not make it as a defensive player. Could be converted to OG or Center and have value.

DE/FB Eric Stevens, Cal — College FB, being looked at as a defender. He’s too slow/non-agile to be an effective DE or OLB. Could scrap his way onto a team as a FB, maybe.

ILB Christian Robinson, Georgia — NFL size/speed is not there. Will not make an NFL roster.

SS Cannon Smith, Memphis — a scrappy Safety, with interesting athleticism/skills — was a former backup QB…as well as a former Miami Hurricane QB recruit. 

Posted in 2013 NFL Draft, St. Louis Rams | Leave a comment

The State of Tight Ends, I’m sick of the The NY Jets, the 2013 Fantasy Football Draft Guide, and Flying in America…

Posted on May 15, 2013 by R.C. Fischer
tags — 2013 Fantasy Football Vernon Davis dynasty Rob Gronkowski draft Jimmy Graham dynasty Aaron Hernandez draft Geno Smith dynasty David Garrard

 

Twitter @FFMetrics

I had the always enjoyable treat to fly this week. I’m not sure I hate a process more than the flight-rental car-strange city game. I have some random thoughts concerning the aggravating things on my trip, and also some football ideas (how novel). Here are some notes I jotted down during my trip, with travel nuggets weaved in for my own therapy…

I just wrapped all the study of the Tight Ends to initially be included for the 1.0 version of our 2013 Draft Guide — like 90+ TEs in all (yes, about 3 per team,…how great a value is that?) and 80-125 word recaps of each TE prospect. Not that you need recaps and scoring projections for 90+ TEs deep for your upcoming draft (for those of you drafting), but you do need this information for when injuries hit and waiver claims are pressing — you need to know not to blow any wad on a Logan Paulsen (circa mid-season 2012) when the time comes. Much of a how I envision what our draft guide is “worth” is not only who to target, but equally — who to avoid. 

Let me just say — the state of the TE union is bad…real bad. So bad, I see many of you are having to dream up scenarios on how good-great these TEs could be in various situations for 2013 because of some scrap/shred of evidence you are clinging to. 

Example: Vernon Davis had two hot playoff games to end last year, after sucking (for FF) almost all regular season…and he was even worse when Colin Kaepernick took over (after the MNF football game vs. CHI). Two seasons ago, Davis finished with two amazing games in the 2011-12 playoffs, and followed that up with another FF dud regular-season in 2012-13…until the final two playoff games, where he got great again. Like lemmings, here we all are again with Davis — I know, “this time is different,” this time he really is going to re-breakout like his nice stretch he had in 2009…four seasons ago. 

At first I thought to mock people who are thinking this way with Vernon Davis. Now I realize; I should pity them. Why? Because, I understand — there is nothing “high-end” after the top 1.5-3.0 TEs for the 2013 season. All many Fantasy GMs have is concocted scenarios of “hope” at TE in redrafts, and in Dynasty leagues. It’s the same delusion that led to the Martellus Bennett uprising in preseason 2012 (again, the value of a draft guide can be “who not to rely on”…your welcome to those we talked out of Bennett as a primary in 2013). 

An “elite” TE in 2013 may be like that old Honus Wagner baseball card that used to sell for $1 billion dollars when I was a kid (or seemed like it did anyway). How I dreamed I would find one of them in my grandparent’s attic. The reason the card was so valuable (at the time) was there weren’t any in existence in pristine condition. Simple supply…and demand. There is great demand for a high-end TE in Fantasy Football, there is beyond a limited supply.

I could name 50-70+ RB names that “I know” if they got the chance at a main workload, they would be solid FF’ers and 1,200+ yard rushers. I’m not sure there is one TE that I am confident will defeat a healthy Gronk-Graham-and maybe Hernandez in 2013. How old is Tony Gonzalez now anyway?

The additional problem with Gronk-Graham-Hernandez (for those in Dynasty leagues) is that the current elite TEs are relying upon elite QBs whose biological clocks are ticking faster than Marisa Tomei’s foot can stomp on the floor. 

AIR TRAVEL NOTE: Hey…30+ year-old guy sitting next to me in fancy jeans and fancy T-Shirt featuring lots of flames and dragons. Just because you were speaking Spanish on your cell phone for 5 minutes up to 30 seconds before pullback and then 18 seconds after landing, doesn’t mean it wasn’t annoying despite the fact that none of us knew what you were talking about. Judging by your perpetual surfing on a cell phone with a screen size of a dinner plate (I’m old-school…I just have an iPhone, not a Pop Tart sized phone) — I could see how into surfing Facebook you were. I’m guessing you were not closing a big business deal on these phone calls…why don’t you save the pressing conversation for when you are off the plane…not 8.5 inches from my ear trapped on a plane?

NY JETS: Big news folks. Stop the presses. David Garrard can’t go this year because of his knee. S.O.B — what will I do for a FF 2013 QB now? There goes the Jets title run hopes out the window too.

Why is this a story? Why does ESPN obsess about this team, and QB situation? Who cares about the Jets or David Garrard? The (arguably) worst team in football gets more coverage than any other NFL team.

It’s because the mainstream football coverage thinks you, and I, are utterly and completely stupid. 

The 2013 NFL Draft coverage was 10% info about the players (and spoiler alert — all these guys are liked by the teams that drafted them, and can be as good as they want to be, and analysts “like this kid.”) and the other 90% of the TV coverage was about Geno Smith and Tyrann Mathieu. Thanks for the spoon-fed drivel on what you think is important.

I like this explanation to me, about the Jets media coverage: “well, in NY it’s all about winning the back page.” Winning the back page? Winning the back page? Who the hell reads a newspaper anymore? Perhaps the reason the Jets, and mainstream football coverage, is so bad — is that they are headed up by people who think “winning the back page” is “a thing.” Hey, 1998 called, it wants its marketing idea back (hey, 1995 called and it wants that joke back, sorry).

I had free USA Today’s everyday at the hotel on my trip. I grabbed one every day and put it in my rental car to head to meetings, with a plan to read the Life and Money sections later. When I turned in my rental car, they asked me if I wanted my newspapers — there were several untouched papers in the backseat. I haven’t read a printed sports page in, what, maybe a decade? But good luck with that back page Jets, it really seems to be working well…even Fireman Ed is sick of you, and I was sick of him three years ago, because ESPN and CBS was sicking him on me with 20+ TV cut-to-him moments on every Jets’ game they broadcast. Circle of life. 

2013 DRAFT GUIDE: The target for all positions/players to be written up with scoring projections — is by July 1st. We are toying with an early buy-in with what we have uploaded…and you can continually update as we add players/positions, until complete.

Our e-draft guide is ever-updating. You purchase once, and your live link will update all the players and rankings with every click. We may put one or two full positions of analysis in to start the early offering, then put this partially done guide up for early sale and about every week another full position will upload…until complete. That way people can get a jump on reading and evaluating. The 90+ TEs of data is enough to digest, much less 500+ players all at one time. We’ll keep you posted if we do that route — and we hope to around June 1st.

 

Posted in Draft Guide Updates, New York Jets, QB, San Francisco 49ers, TE | Leave a comment

One more thing on Tavon Austin…

Posted on May 13, 2013 by R.C. Fischer

tags — 2013 NFL Draft Tavon Austin 2013 Dynasty Rookie Draft Cordarrelle Patterson

Twitter @FFMetrics, www.collegefootballmetrics.com

I was reading a “throw away” story concerning Tavon Austin today, and it made my mind race a little bit. The piece was about Austin talking about the toughest thing to deal with in the NFL was his new-found wealth, and people calling from all over asking him for money.

At first, I read the quick piece, and went flying right by it. Of course, we all know that young sports stars who find new fortunes have a lot of new “friends.” Another “wonderful” non-story by the mainstream sports media…understandable because it is a slow football news cycle.

But then I thought a little more about this…

What is compelling Austin to talk out loud about this? It’s not like Austin is the only player in the draft to “fall” into this new/sudden socioeconomic situation. Why are the other 20 or so players taken before/after Austin not talking out loud about this? This is something we all know happens to some degree, so why talk about it? Wouldn’t you be inclined not to talk about it out loud?

You might “shout” it from the rooftops if you are immature and not the savviest person in the world…which to me is an armchair psychologist’s analysis of Tavon Austin. To me, there is trouble written all over this from a Fantasy Football (and NFL) perspective. Nevertheless, the media, and thus fans, are drooling all over Austin as the next great NFL superstar…ignoring several troubling signs.

Austin scored a seven on his Wonderlic test. Now, I know many of you old-school, “rub some dirt in it” football fans/Fantasy GMs completely dismiss Wonderlic testing in scouting. Your reaction to the Wonderlic is a kinda of litmus test of football “man card” — the “high road”/acceptable/manly thing to do is to mock how much the test doesn’t matter for football…despite the fact that 99% of people commenting about it do not fully understand its value as one tool (of many) for scouting and projecting players. I agree; you don’t need to be a genius to play WR in the NFL. Wonderlic test score relationship to WR play has poor/low correlation (but it does matter at QB and some of the other positions).

What the low Wonderlic score does invite into the scouting equation — the possibility that a prospect is a complete mess off-the-field, and the possibility of that issue bleeding over into ability to do the work needed to become good-great in the NFL. It also broaches the possibility of a distracted player, a diva human, a player likely to churn through their new-found wealth and fall into financial troubles — all of which can negatively impact a locker room presence, on-field performance, and (at minimum) holds a player back from becoming good-great, and keeps them as mediocre-good.

If you’ve never used the Wonderlic to assess employment candidates, etc., then you really cannot discuss its usefulness (or not) rationally. I can tell you from experience, that a score of seven is breathtakingly bad…shockingly bad. It shows a person more apt to be duped in their day-to-day life, and one who will struggle to identify problems and patterns and possibly have trouble quickly working around them. As an NFL exec, I would never draft (but would UDFA) a player with a Wonderlic score under about 13-15, no matter how talented — unless Bo Jackson-esque. Tavon Austin is not the next Bo Jackson, on a number of levels.

A test score is concrete data, but I would also like to advance a “guilt by association” mental judgment as well. Again, as football fans not privy to sitting with these players for hours to interview, or conduct expensive/thorough background checks, we only have so many clues we can use. My bias, my concern with Austin came at the 2013 NFL Draft.

Pre-draft, there was a red carpet walk up for the players attending the draft. The players were all decked out in suits, and handlers ushered them through the line with occasional stops to be interviewed by ESPN reporters. I remember seeing the top O-Lineman walk unassumingly down the carpet, stop for a couple minutes to have a humble chat, and move on. Then I saw “it.” All (I think) I needed to know to confirm previous suspicions — here comes Cordarrelle Patterson and Tavon Austin walking down the red carpet together…new BFFs.

Austin could have partnered up with anyone, or no one — but he found a comrade in the eleven-scoring on the Wonderlic, draft status falling because of questions on his attitude and aptitude, Cordarrelle Patterson. Two peas in a pod, strolling down the carpet in sunglasses and flashy suits/outfits. But wait it gets better…

The two  stopped to talk to an ESPN reporter. Patterson does most of the talking. Austin looks like Patterson’s 12-year-old son with his diminutive size. Patterson’s big discussion with reporters on this draft moment was concerning his unique fashion sense and the crazy belt he was wearing with his outfit. Austin sat there nodding and smiling, basking in this nonsense.

If anyone of us met Cordarrelle Patterson, the food prep cook at a fast food restaurant, we would not be inclined to become BFFs with him. We’d all probably run the other direction. Tavon Austin was attracted like a moth to a flame, as (I think) he has all the similar tendencies of a diva WR similar to Patterson.

Those of you jonesing for Austin in your 2013 Dynasty Rookie Drafts — you are getting suckered by a lazy NFL media. Our computer models were already skeptical on Austin’s talent translation to the NFL; these off-field question marks are icing on the cake. Austin has NFL talent, but not that of a workhorse — more of a gimmick option. His size and mentality do not project well over the long haul.

Austin may have a good game or nice stretch possibly/probably, but projecting as a long-term star for years on your Dynasty team — no.

Posted in 2013 NFL Draft, St. Louis Rams, WR | Leave a comment

Undrafted Free Agents Review for Fantasy Football 2013: Tampa Bay Bucs

Posted on May 13, 2013 by R.C. Fischer
tags — 2013 NFL Draft, 2013 Dynasty Rookie Draft

 

Twitter @FFMetrics

All college prospects for the NFL are statistically profiled, graded, and ranked by position at our sister website — www.collegefootballmetrics.com

RB Montel Harris, Temple — Harris has a couple positive data points on performance metrics (1,054 yards and 12 TDs last year with Bernard Pierce gone) and has a couple interesting measurables, but there are a few red flags as well. Harris is a little too slow (4.6+ 40-time) to be an effective RB in the NFL at 5’8″, 208-pounds. He might be able to grind his way onto an NFL roster, and maybe even some emergency duty playing time, but there is little chance at an upside to good/greatness for Fantasy Football.

RB Akeem Shavers, Purdue — (originally signed by TB, since picked up by NE) Respectable athleticism as a 4.4+ 40-time runner with good agility and a decent bench press (19 reps) for his 5’10″, 198-pound frame. Shavers is a poor man’s Shane Vereen…of sorts. He might have made the Bucs roster given their shortage of RB talent/depth, but he has little chance to make the Pats roster at RB. Belichick may be looking at him as a CB conversion prospect as well.

RB Orwin Smith, Georgia Tech — There is a lot of hoopla over Smith averaging 9.3 yards per carry in his college career, but there are a couple reasons to quickly come back down to earth on it: Ga. Tech runs a very unique style of option running game. When you watch highlights of Smith for his big runs of the past three years — he is essentially running through wide open halves of fields, untouched. Any time you see a Smith running play figured out, and/or he is running in some type of defensive congestion — he has limited agility and size, and comes down quickly. There is no high-end elusiveness, or sneaky hidden star here…in our estimation.

In the end, Smith is a thinner-framed, moderate speed RB whose best season was 61 carries for 615 yards, in a deceptive option running game. He is not a major diamond in the rough, but is possibly a 3rd or 4th RB on a roster some day.

CB Rashaan Melvin, No Illinois — Melvin is a scrapper, and a CB at 6’1″+, 210+, but measures with poor agility to be an NFL CB. There is potential for him as a Strong Safety in the NFL…maybe.

CB Branden Smith, Georgia — A little too undersized to be an effective NFL CB at 5’10″, 172-pounds. There is hope that he can add some bulk  and maintain a solid 4.4+ speed and decent agility. Smith’s performance metrics in our system showed a un-aggressive player, who would strictly be a 5th or 6th DB type on obvious passing downs…with little upside to become a starting-level NFL CB.

TEs Hubie Graham, Pitt and Evan Landi, So Fla. — Both too slow/un-athletic to likely make an NFL roster as a TE, much less have Fantasy Football value.

WR Chris Denton, Mt Union — had a great career returning punts at the D3 level, but measured way too slow and non-agile to make an impact in the NFL as a returner, especially troubling at 5’9″+, 193-pounds.

WR Tim Wright, Rutgers — If Belichick didn’t take a look at this Rutgers player, then you know that’s trouble to begin with. The measurables say absolutely no way.

OLB Tenarius Wright — a little too slow for an NFL OLB, but could project better as an ILB. Overall, he is a touch too un-athletic to be a high-end OLB, ILB, or DE. He can make a roster, and perhaps grind his way to become a starter at some point, but the measurables and injury history dictate it is a long shot.

 

 

Posted in 2013 NFL Draft, Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Leave a comment

Two things to consider for the degenerate NFL gamblers out there…

Posted on May 11, 2013 by R.C. Fischer
tags — 2013 NFL over under win totals Vegas odds 
 

 

This past week we started honing in on the projected strength schedule (and no, we do not use the NFL’s or mainstream media’s simplistic S.O.S methodology) for 2013, and a couple of things jumped out at us that I thought I would tee up to anyone looking for a new pair of shoes for their babies…

On the topic of NFL over/under win totals:

Last year, we gave you the Tennessee Titans as the “under” lock of the year…you’re welcome.

Looking at the early info, I had to place bets right now, I would make two of them — one under (and I love to go under), and one over (and I hate to bet overs, don’t ask me why).

UNDER 8.5 wins (sometimes I’ve seen 9.0 wins): The Chicago Bears

This puppy is about to implode from a talent standpoint (and started to late last year), and the 2013 schedule is going to do the Bears no favors. They start out the season with two home games — CIN then MIN. If they split those games and go (1-1); then the bet is probably “in the bag.” A (2-0) start would make me slightly nervous on them gaining momentum, but still very favorable to work out in the end.

After the first two games of 2013, it’s @ PIT and @ DET. The best case for the Bears is a split, but higher odds they lose both. At this stage, if the Bears are (1-3) then you can rest your head comfortably. You’re fine at (2-2), but we see (1-3) at this stage…and then victory laps beginning.

The next three games are home vs. NO, then home vs. NYG, then @ WAS. We think the Saints are a Super Bowl threat with a radically improved defense (a defense that might be FF-worthy at times), a toss-up game with the NYG, and then a loss @ RG3. We think the Bears head into this stretch (1-3), and then lose to NO and WAS, and maybe beat NYG to go to (2-5).

If they are (2-5) at the BYE Week-8, then the media discussion for weeks will have been berating the logic of trading unrestricted free agent to-be Jay Cutler…and I bet (not assured) they deal him…and then the multi-year rebuilding process is on. If they don’t trade Cutler at that point, they will lose @ GB in Week-9 regardless, and fall to (2-6).

At that point, the Bears would have to win seven of their final eight to beat the 8.5 over/under mark. If they head into the final half of the season sitting at (3-5), then they’d have to go (6-2) to defeat the 8.5 win total. The Bears are not talented enough to pull off either miracle win-total scenario.

The Bears are preparing to be the worst team in the NFC North, and about to wander into a 2-3 year malaise coming off a couple of very weak drafts in recent years, a defense that is aging out, and the “miracle worker” Lovie Smith unable to salvage them. The Bears collapse will re-ignite Lovie Smith as a very good NFL coach, and he will be a hot commodity for teams in 2014.

OVER 6 wins (sometimes is 5.5 or 6.5): Kansas City Chiefs

I’m not a huge Chiefs fan, but a couple of factors are in their favor…

(1) KC has decent talent across the board, but they just had two of the worst coaching jobs of our lifetime turned in by Todd Haley and Romeo Crennel. Andy Reid may not be an A+, but he is a solid B+.

(2) Alex Smith is a plausible NFL QB, and has been for a couple of years…better than the aforementioned Jay Cutler. Smith has arguably been a top 7-10 NFL QB (not FF QB) for the past two seasons. On the downside, if Smith gets hurt, you know I like the backup QB…and that is a critical question when risking money on the overs — “what happens if the starting QB gets hurt?” Ricky Stanzi will be the backup, not Chase Daniel. If Daniel is listed as the backup for posterity, it would not be long before Stanzi took the job over.

In this over/under bet, I would not need Daniel/Stanzi to take the Chiefs to the Super Bowl…I just need a couple of wins.

(4) The Chiefs play in the worst division in the NFL. Two matchups with OAK is a near guarantee of a two wins. San Diego at worst is a split. Assuming the Chiefs lose twice to Denver, then KC (3-3 in division) just has to find three wins in their other 10 games.

(5) The overall schedule favors a “hot” start for KC, and thus momentum, and thus finding those those three out-of-division wins needed.

Opening day @ JAC is prime to nab one of the three wins we are looking for. Home with DAL in Week-2 is also in the Chiefs favor. I should not be shocking to see the Chiefs at (2-0) after two weeks into the 2013 season; and people will be jumping on the Andy Reid bandwagon…a lot of it will be schedule driven (and that will be rarely/never mentioned).

Over the next four games, KC will face @ PHI, NYG, @ TEN, OAK. The Philly game could be an emotional uprising with the Reid back-story, with the added benefit of facing the disaster that is Michael Vick. A path to a (3-0) start is very possible facing Gabbert-Jerry Jones-Vick. With a (2-1) or (3-0) momentum to start 2013, a home game win against NYG would not be insurmountable. The Week-5 game @ TEN is very favorable. Week-6 at home with OAK should be a lock.

A (4-2) or (3-3) season start is strongly on the table after six games for KC. The Chiefs would then need to just win 2 or 3 games out of their next 10 to cover the six wins.

CLE looms in Week-8, @ Buffalo sits pre-BYE Week-9…both favorable scenarios. if you are betting the over win-total, then you need/want KC to be (5-3) heading into the BYE. Leaving them needing just one win in the final eight games…and the schedule amps up pretty salty from there. A (4-4) KC team coming out of the BYE isn’t horrible for this bet either; needing just two wins in the next 8 games…and having two SD matchups ahead and another OAK game to come.

This is for entertainment purposes only, and as of today…who knows what tomorrow will bring? Good luck degenerates!

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Posted in Chicago Bears, Kansas City Chiefs | Leave a comment

Undrafted Free Agents Review for Fantasy Football 2013: Tennessee Titans

Posted on May 10, 2013 by R.C. Fischer

tags — 2013 NFL Draft, 2013 Dynasty Rookie Draft

Twitter @FFMetrics

All college prospects for the NFL are statistically profiled, graded, and ranked by position at our sister website — www.collegefootballmetrics.com

WR Rashad Ross, Arizona State — 5’11″, 180-pounds. He runs a 40-time in the 4.4s, but has very weak agility numbers. A small frame, lower bench press, a moderate performance at Arizona State, nothing apparent here for Fantasy Football purposes.

WR Dontel Watkins, Murray State — There is a little bit of upside hope here. a 6’2″+, 194-pounds. If Watkins bulks up to 210+, to go with 4.5 speed and decent agility, he might work his way onto an NFL roster. This is probably 2-3 years away for Fantasy Football purposes, if anything develops. Watkins had moderate production in a fairly efficient Murray State passing game, so 39 rec.-561 yards-5 TDs is a little under-whelming.

TE Jack Doyle, Western Kentucky — there are possibilities here, but Doyle probably falls just short of Fantasy Football relevance. He is a touch too small/thin-framed, and a hair too slow/non-agile to be a high-impact NFL TE…but he is capable enough in all aspects to play in the NFL. Western Kentucky used him in a lot of unique ways.

WR Travis Harvey, Florida A&M — 6’1″+, 180-pounds…a very thin-framed WR with moderate speed and agility. Harvey was an above-average performer in college, but not “off the charts” for this lower level of competition.

CB George Baker, So. Florida — he ran a sub 4.4 40-time at his Pro Day. He has great speed, but moderate agility. His performance numbers hint at maybe a nickel DB in the NFL…not a starter (aside from emergency). There is an NFL hope here, but it’s murky.

RB Stefphon Jefferson, Nevada — Jefferson had 24 rushing TDs last season along with 1,800+ rushing yards, and carried the ball over 28+ times a game in 2012, and yet went undrafted. To consider the scouting dilemma of Jefferson — see our full scouting report of him at College Football Metrics.com.

LB Tom Wort, Oklahoma — OK speed, poor agility, mild performance in college. We don’t see anything special here for IDP in the future. He will be a fringe/role player in the NFL at best.

DT Stefan Charles, Regina — a pure NT type at 6’4″, 325+ pounds. He has potential to be an NFL “3-4″ NT/DT, probably more as a backup.

Posted in 2013 NFL Draft, Tennessee Titans | Leave a comment