FANTASY FOOTBALL SIT and START WEEKLY PROJECTIONS

tags -- 2012 Fantasy Football, daily leagues, bloomberg, Dynasty, keeper, Colin Kaepernick injury Alshon Jeffery dynasty Cecil Shorts sleeper Justin Blackmon snap count Jordan Shipley dynasty Terrelle Pryor start Matt Leinart sit Drew Brees trade Chase Daniel injury Ryan Grant dynasty Jackie Battle draft Andrew Luck dynasty Kalil Bell draft Jacquizz Rodgers idp Leon Hall

 

 - See more of our statistical analysis on the 2012 NFL Draft prospects @ www.collegefootballmetrics.com -

 

Week-17 Version 1.0:

 *It's a tricky week to make early assumptions or projections on, but for those moving on to a Week-17 battle...here's a first take at some situations to consider:

 -- Given how well the Arizona pass-defense has played this whole season, and of late, I'm not sure I would completely fall for a "the 49ers are mad, and Kaepernick is going to go off" storyline.

 -- The 49ers are in a must win game in order to secure a 1st-round BYE situation, so I would expect mostly Frank Gore, with limited LaMichael James.

 -- You have to like Justin Blackmon, Cecil Shorts, and even a Jordan Shipley this week versus the Titans if MJD doesn't come back. ** 12/24/12 eve Shorts placed IR, done for the season**

 -- I would expect to see a split start for Terrelle Pryor at best this week, but there is almost no hope of him being a top Fantasy producer...ever. If the Raiders thought anything of Pryor, it would have been he, not Matt Leinart in relief of Carson Palmer in Week-16.

 -- I guess the Chargers are going to finish out with Jackie Battle. I would have guessed Curtis Brinkley with more of a look. Battle versus Oakland in Week-17 may be something. Battle had 19 carries against the Jets in Week-16.

 -- I have no idea why the Saints would not go with Chase Daniel over Drew Brees this week. If they do start Brees, you have to figure it will be a token start and an early hook.

 -- With the Vikings in the driver's seat for playoffs (win and in), I cannot imagine Ryan Grant will have a similar explosion this week versus the Minnesota run-defense that just humiliated Houston's running attack.

 -- Andrew Luck is progressively worse each week, and is a "must sit" against the Texans-Defense...if he even plays much at all. With Luck likely out some/all the game, Wayne-Hilton are Week-17 non-factors as well.

 --  I would count on Reggie Bush being under-whelming in Week-17, versus him having a big day versus a motivated Patriots-Defense.

 -- A normal team would shut down C.J. Spiller for the season. Expect him to see 20+ carries...if so, he may have a 200+ yard rushing day.

 -- You would assume that Denver will destroy KC pretty quickly this week, which means light work ahead for Peyton Manning and Knowshon Moreno in the 2nd-half. Possibly, a huge day for Ronnie Hillman.

 -- I went big on Alshon Jeffery for the last two weeks, and got nothing. Too many missed-throws by Cutler for my taste. Once fully benched by me for Week-17, Jeffery will probably have 100+ yards and 2 TDs...

 -- Kahlil Bell has proven (last season) that he can produce late in a season. With/if Matt Forte out, Bell is a threat for 100+ yards against Detroit in a must-win game.

 -- You have to lean anti-Torrey Smith against Leon Hall this week, but who knows how much Hall will really play?

 -- I can see it now...Jacquizz Rodgers will be announced/deduced as a main-carry RB for Week-17, and the FF-world will go crazy. You know I will go the other way -- untalented RB (Jacquizz) meets talented run-defense (with still trying to win coach) = disappointment (again).

 

 

Week-16 Version 2.0:

 -- The Jets' playoff hopes are now officially "done," so the Jets-Defense is not a play versus San Diego this week. That will be one of the most uninspired games of 2012, on both sides. I would expect Tim Tebow or Greg McElroy to get that start. Probably, McElroy on a hunch. We think McElroy is a smart/low-turnover QB...so I wouldn't jump on the Chargers-Defense too fast either in that instance.

 -- If Brent Celek is out, and you are TE-desperate, then consider Clay Harbor. Harbor was targeted six-times in their game last week -- a game in which Philly had the ball a season low 22+ minutes. Harbor had three red-zone targets this past week: one target a tough catch (but could've been made) in the end-zone for six. Another a slant from 6-yards out, where he caught it and couldn't drive the defender into the end-zone...falling short at the one. In another world, Harbor had two TDs last week and is the toast of the waiver wire.

Harbor is a well above-average TE athletically, and can do some things a lot of other TE can't -- including be featured on the other end of streaking down the sideline bombs (like he was last week).

  -- OK, I'm officially burned by Chris Givens. After the Rams made him a centerpiece of the offense a couple of weeks ago, he had a quiet Week-14 (with a near-miss TD, just a yard short), followed by this disaster of a Week-15. Sam Bradford threw 55-times in a blowout, but Givens saw 4 targets. Unpredictable targeting the last two weeks, so confidence in Givens is drastically lowered (again).

 -- The Chargers RB of note for Week-16 has to be Curtis Brinkley, and facing a bad Jets run-defense that had what little heart was left ripped out...this could be a 100+ yard day in Week-16.

-- Josh Gordon versus Denver/Champ Bailey is a bad matchup this week.

 

Week-16 Version 1.0:

 -- The Denver-Defense facing Brandon Weeden in Week-16 is a nice final gift the computer will have given to you this season. Week-17 versus Kansas City is pretty sweet if it matters to you.

 -- Greater than the Denver-D in Week-16 is the desperate Bears-Defense facing Ryan Lindley.

 -- Lest we forget the Patriots-Defense facing Jacksonville...

 -- Alshon Jeffery had 3 catches for 44 yards and a TD called back on penalty, as well as two other plays he was interfered with for another 58 yards worth of penalty yards in total. In a different world, Jeffery had 4-5 catches for 100+ and 1-2 TDs on 9 targets...instead of no catches on four targets. Jeffery is a sleeper play again this week as Brandon Marshall draws Patrick Peterson in primary coverage.

 -- As much as the computer is not a long-term fan, Vick Ballard is a top play versus Kansas City this week.

 -- Marques Colston has fallen off the face of the earth the past few weeks. It has been of concern because the target counts are falling, and he had a season-low three targets in Week-15.

 -- If Danario Alexander can go from multi-TDs against the Steelers, to completely shutout by the Panthers...I'd look elsewhere for Week-16 excitement when the Chargers face the Jets. If the Jets win on MNF, and thus still have something to play for, Danario would draw Antonio Cromartie.

 -- DeAngelo Williams is back on the board for Week-16 versus Oakland (if Jonathan Stewart still out). I don't think I could pull the trigger unless in total desperation.

 -- I really would have appreciated Drew Brees's 4 TD and 300+ yard passing game last week in leagues where I didn't have a bye. Brees still has a chance to finish as the top PPG Fantasy QB this season...he just picked a bad time for his "cold" games (Weeks 13 and 14) for some of us.

 -- So many QBs have struggled with the Browns pass-defense this season (since Joe Haden has returned), that I was completely shocked to witness Kirk Cousins posting a 300+ yard and 2 TD/1 INT day against them. Cousins' first (long) TD pass was incredibly lucky. I will have to re-watch this game to get a proper feel, but the plays that I saw while watching multiple games Sunday afternoon -- Cousins was not impressing me.

 -- The computer told you three years ago Dennis Pitta could be the best PPR TE in football. He has been that since Week-10, if you ignore his Week-11 game that he left with a concussion. Pitta started hot this year, then disappeared, and is finishing ablaze with 5 TDs in his last five full games played.

 -- Week-15 featured preseason Hall-of-Fame RB David Wilson completing his third (hat trick) of Fantasy Football "suckering" of Fantasy GMs this season. Everyone was orgasmic about Wilson coming into the regular season. After he did absolutely nothing initially, an early Ahmad Bradshaw injury got people excited...until Andre Brown became a great NFL runner, with Wilson M-I-A. Now with Brown and Bradshaw hurt -- Wilson got his first true start...and was arguably outplayed by journeyman Kregg Lumpkin.

 -- I cannot figure out if Colin Kaepernick is a pending great QB, or incredibly lucky. He has to have credit for throwing the deep ball TDs against New England, but outside of those long balls...he was 10-21 for 83 yards passing.

This may finally be the wave of the future for the QB position -- highly mobile, very tall QB (that defenses cannot/will not heavily pass-rush) that just sits back in picks apart opponent with deep balls. It's what Cam Newton does, it is what Kaepernick is doing. The moment there is pressure, or a short field to the end-zone (within 10-yards) it's troublesome...but there is rarely pressure or a short field.

RG3, Kaepernick, Cam Newton, and Russell Wilson will be among the top-5 rated Fantasy Football QBs in a 4-point pass passing-TD league, with no 300+ yard passing bonuses in 2013. This influx on the "new breed" makes Andrew Luck, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Aaron Rodgers half as valuable as they might normally be for Fantasy Football. It makes Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, Andy Dalton, Eli Manning and Matt Stafford Fantasy Football dinosaurs.

 

==============================================

 

Week-15 Version 2.0:

 -- Alshon Jeffery scored a TD after missing six of his last seven games with an injury. The additional thing to note is that Jeffery also had a 40-yard bomb ricochet off his hands in a leaping grab attempt in the end-zone this week as well (not an easy one, but a catch that he could have made). What would have happened for waivers this week had Jeffery had made that catch and had about 100-yards and 2 TDs on the week?

We have argued that in a very weak 2012 WR draft-class, Jeffery was the one "big-WR" that could be the break-out elite/dominant one. Given the attention that Brandon Marshall will draw the next two weeks (or any week), in must-win games, Jeffery may be a 100+ yard and 1+ TD producer per game ahead...and the key in changing the Bears fortunes/offense coming down the stretch. 

 -- Dennis Pitta has scored a TD in three of his last four full-games played (left Week-11 early with a concussion). He has been trending hot of late, but should continue to be a top producer with the Ravens new Offensive-Coordinator.

 -- Marvin Jones flew a bit under-the-radar this week. He had just four official targets this week, but note he also had three other targets waived off due to penalties. There was a real effort to have Jones involved in the offense...and he had 82-yards rushing and receiving combined as it was. Jones is a tremendous athlete, with suspect hands. When the Bengals get Jones the ball, he is a threat for huge plays.

-- If Terrelle Pryor is named starter, you can throw away all of your Raiders WR/TE options for Fantasy Football -- especially, Brandon Myers and Rod Streater. Darrius Heyward-Bey and Denarius Moore are the most viable working with Pryor's Tebow-esque style, with Juron Criner as a sleeper. However, Pryor is like having a bad Tim Tebow at QB...it's questionable that he could complete more than 7-8 passes in a game.

 -- You're about to find out that Kirk Cousins is not the QB the scouts/media portrait him to be, if he truly does start this week. A Cousins start makes the Cleveland-Defense an excellent play this week...and kills Alfred Morris and Pierre Garcon's Fantasy value.

 

Week-15 Version 1.0:

 -- Andrew Luck is getting the majority of the publicity among all the top rookie QBs. However, Luck's FF-scoring of late hasn't been close to what RG3 and Russell Wilson have produced. In the past three weeks (Weeks 12-14), Luck (17.0) has outscored fellow rookie Nick Foles (16.9) by just 0.1 Fantasy PPG (4 pts per pass TD) in that span. Luck has been more bad than good this season, and if HOU loses on Monday Night (and thus still has something to play for)…then the Texans-Defense is a play Week-15, and Luck is a definitive "sit."

-- Josh Freeman is going to wind up being a key/top QB for the Week-15 playoff game, as he faces the very weak pass-defense of the Saints. Freeman has been one of the best Fantasy QBs of the last ten weeks, especially when facing weaker opponents. He looks awful to me, but somehow he produces for FF against bad teams. I won't fight it...

 -- Aaron Rodgers continues to be "mediocre" for Fantasy purposes, in part due to the flimsy offensive line play that is compromising nearly every pass play, which has also grounded their running game to a halt. Facing the Bears next week, depending upon your QB2...it may bench time for Rodgers.

Green Bay is turning more and more to the run as a gloss over for their pass-protection issues. The days of Rodgers piling it on through the air appear to be dead for the rest of the 2012 season.

-- What Danario Alexander is doing since becoming a member of the Chargers is unreal. Against a very good Steelers-Defense, in a must-win contest for Pittsburgh -- Alexander had his way with them. Alexander has two multi-TD games in his last four games played. Week-15 versus Carolina should be another opportunity at great FF-output.

-- Alshon Jeffery returned from injury and scored a TD, but he should have had two. Jeffery has an upside pop as teams have to focus on the exorbitant level of pass-targets Brandon Marshall gets. Versus GB-ARI the next two weeks, he is a threat for a TD in each game.

-- Montell Owens had a nice TD-run late, against a quasi-prevent defense, leading to a nice overall FF-game. Bet all your chips against it versus the great run-defense of Miami next week.

-- Under the Titans new Offensive-Coordinator, CJ2K has averaged 5.5 FF PPG (9.0 PPR) on 47.5 yards rushing per game and 3.0 yards per carry.

-- Chris Givens had an underwhelming week after a big build up (by us). Two notes on his Week-14 output: (a) Givens was the most targeted Rams player with 10 targets (b) Givens had a catch & run near-score that he missed the TD by a half-an-inch stepping out of bounds pre-crossing the goal-line. He's still a strong play versus MIN next week.

-- Drew Brees has been a mess the last few weeks, and is virtually destroying FF-teams in the playoff run. However, facing the weaker Tampa Bay pass-defense next week…I don't know how you sit him?

-- As Drew Brees has fallen apart, so has Jimmy Graham. This is now four weeks of mediocre performances for Graham.

-- It's been dicey the last few weeks, but Colin Kaepernick keeps saving his Fantasy-bacon with a long run late in games. This upcoming week against the Patriots will be quite a test for a QB that looks very limited (to me) as a passer. From what I've seen, I'm nervous to trust Kaepernick if I have better options.

-- LaMichael James looks good, in fact he looks just like Kendall Hunter…and thus he is the Hunter equivalent for 2012 Fantasy Football purposes.

-- I'd love to hear from the person who faced a Fantasy team that started the Seattle-Defense this week, but yet they overcame that incredible explosion and still won. This game we play is not a fair one sometimes.

-- The David Wilson re-hysteria begins now. Wilson is a talent, but some of his big game was due to a few extra carries when Ahmad Bradshaw got nicked up, and punctuated with a late/long TD run against a zombie-like Saints defense. Wilson will not supplant Bradshaw, unless Bradshaw is injured. This nice effort by Wilson does put Bradshaw back into a fear of a workload split again next week.**UPDATE** Bradshaw may be missing this week, so Wilson is a hot play with ATL-BAL ahead.

-- Jason Avant has to be on the radar screen for Weeks 15-16, if you are of the mindset that Nick Foles is an emerging talent, and is going to throw a ton again the next weeks.

 -- WR Kris Durham is a former 4th-round draft pick of Seattle in 2011 but was cut this year. He has resurfaced with Detroit, and got the start this week with all the Lions WR injuries. Note that Durham was Matt Stafford college roommate...and he appears to be trying to get his buddy an NFL future -- throwing several passes to his pal (half of them ill-advised). Durham is a huge 6'6" target, with suspect hands. Look for a 5-15 yard alley-oop TD in the near future for Durham.

 

====================================

Week-14 Version 2.0:

 -- Over the past two weeks, Chris Givens has averaged 8.0 receptions for 107.5 yards and 0.50 TDs with 10.0 pass-targets per game. I mentioned it last week -- this is not a cute fluke WR anymore. The Rams are designing plays specifically for Givens. The computer feels he is going to WR-2 status the rest of the way (BUF-MIN-TB). Even if Danny Amendola is back, it only helps open things up for Givens.

 -- Our computer has been annoyingly flagging Tony Scheffler for weeks, mostly to no avail. However, Scheffler's targets and yardage counts have been creeping up the last three weeks (3.3 rec, 44.7 yards, 0.0 TD, 7.0 targets, 1.0 red-zone targets per game). What makes this more intriguing is that the loss of Ryan Broyles makes Scheffler the 2nd-best overall receiving target (our opinion) on the Lions (in terms of size/speed combo). He may even play that 2nd-WR role some...he has the speed for it. In a sea of TE despair, Scheffler may take a step forward.

 -- If the Texans win in Week-14, that all but locks-down the #1 seed for 2012. Ben Tate is theoretically the best "Foster-resting" play for FF then. However, Justin Forsett has been an excellent runner as well this year. A Tate-Forsett split, with Foster seeing some light duty is maybe more likely than a Tate 20+ carry a game workout, especially given Tate's injury issues.

 -- Jared Cook has averaged 5.0 receptions for 39.5 yards and 0.0 TDs on 10.0 pass-targets the last two games. The ultra-tall TE is a great target for an erratic Jake Locker. Much like the aforementioned Tony Scheffler, Cook's target trend may be getting ready to predict a bigger step forward to finish the year.

 -- Riley Cooper is the man to roll with on favorable matchups for Nick Foles. Which will be Week-14 vs. TB and Week-16 vs. WAS. Cooper will lead all Eagles WRs the rest of the season in all receiving categories, including pass-targets.

 

 

Week-14 Version 1.0:

 -- Greg McElroy is like a poor man's Christian Ponder. He's a solid, smart QB heading up a lesser-talented/lesser-volume passing-game. For 2012, there is likely nothing here for Fantasy Football (should McElroy continue to start).

McElroy seemed to favor Stephen Hill as his main look, which may actually provide some potential in a deeper league. Given that the Jets face JAC-TEN the next two weeks, there is a chance a crafty McElroy will hook up with his physically biggest, best WR option for a TD-hopes.

 -- I would not jump onto Montell Owens as the Rashard Jennings alternative. Keep an eye on Jordan Todman as a dark horse. He's not a home run, but it's something better than Owens. Todman is a long, long shot.

 -- OK, we (and NFL defenses) are starting to get a read on Colin Kaepernick. I would be nervous about starting him Weeks 15-16 versus NE-SEA (unless the SEA CBs are suspended). Kaepernick has failed the beat the Rams in nine quarters facing them (or throw for a single TD against them). However, he did defeat an overrated Bears team that was missing Jay Cutler, and a very shaky Saints-Defense.

 -- Two weeks ago, you lost faith in me. You can admit it. This week, you've watched Kaepernick drop and Nick Foles ascend. Patience young grasshoppers!

 -- If Ryan Broyles is going to miss time (uggh that kills me!), then Mike Thomas has a WR-3/Flex potential. **Broyles now out for season with ACL, double uggh**

 -- Greg Jennings looked mostly healthy in his return from injury. He had an "OK" game statistically, but he did not play a lot of snaps early-on. When the game tightened up we saw more Jennings. I would think he is a normal play from here on in.

 -- Kyle Rudolph is finally becoming a primary focus of Ponder over the last few games, but our fear is that he will fade back to hit & miss when Percy Harvin returns. The additional focus on Rudolph began with the absence of Harvin.

 -- I'm now more on the Dallas Clark "believer" side of the ledger with PHI-NO-STL ahead. I thought he'd be quiet against DEN and stay a bit hidden, but alas he scored a TD this week...his 3rd game with a TD in his last 4 games played. He'll be hot on waivers this week.

 -- Demarco Murray looks great in his return from injury, much better than Greg Jennings did this week.

 -- We've been promoting Russell Wilson since the football universe turned on him after his first couple games this year. I hope somewhere in the last 5-10 weeks you were able to take advantage of his lower-acquisition value in Dynasty Leagues. Actually, if you were a College Football Metrics subscriber...you already had him. Once people see his current statistical/performance trend, and now with him beating the Bears in awesome late-comeback fashion, you can't acquire him reasonably now. Wilson played an absolutely brilliant game...again...as I've been saying most all season (while others judged his early performance as "horrible").

 -- Lester Jean is too slow to be an impact NFL WR. Useful, but not a future star.

 -- The Jets-Defense suffocated Ryan Lindley (not that the task was difficult this week, and now faces Henne-Locker the next two weeks. It's shaky, but those in need...the Jets-D continues to be worth a look.

 -- Tony Moeaki's output keeps ticking up. He had his first TD of 2012 this week. He is still just a desperation play in a very deep league. I would not trust him in a Brady Quinn-led offense at all.

 -- I thought Coby Fleener might be a TE that could have upside upon his return from injury. He scored a TD, and had a near-miss TD on another throw this week upon that return. The problem is that those were his only two targets in the game.

 -- What do you do with LeSean McCoy now? I had said that Bryce Brown looked like Adrian Peterson running the ball several times in the preseason...sometimes my eyes aren't so bad after all? McCoy's FF-value is watering down quickly. What will the Eagles do? I will break that down (my opinion) in the PHI-DAL game recap this week.

 -- In my book, you can't use the Texans-Defense against the Patriots next week. They looked great again in Week-13, but they have been susceptible to high-flying passing games.

 

 

Week-13 Version 2.0:

 -- I'm just guessing that we might have been the only scouting service with Bryce Brown in our top-25 Dynasty Rookie Draft prospects (#21), and the 16th highest rated among the offensive players. If you watched Monday Night Football, now you know why. Those with LeSean McCoy have to be antsy...a departing Andy Reid and an emerging Bryce Brown rips into McCoy's future value.

 -- The unfortunate Andre Brown injury will mean that Ahmad Bradshaw is going to go back to producing top 5-10 Fantasy points among RBs, like he did the first third of this season. David Wilson will get some touches, but Bradshaw will carry the load down the stretch if he can stay healthy.

 -- Our top-rated college Kicker prospect of all-time in our computer scouting models is Alex Henery. Henery has now hit on 44 of 48 career FGs. His issue isn't accuracy, it's getting more FG opportunities. Michael Vick did not get to the red-zone often the past two seasons, and when he did he usually turned it over. Foles isn't cashing in red-zone TDs at a high-level yet, but he is getting Eagles there without turning it over every time, and getting the team FG attempts at least. With Vick, Henery has no FF value...if the Eagles commit to Foles the rest of 2012 (and I don't think they will, they will want to keep him in one piece for 2013) then Henery comes into play for Fantasy...maybe.

 -- Jonathan Stewart starts out well this week on MNF, and the Panthers score on their first two drives, life is good. Stewart has a couple carries where he gets popped in the backfield and out he goes for the dreadful DeAngelo Williams. The Panthers drives instantly stall with DeAngelo, and the Panthers fall behind before the Eagles fumble back over to Carolina. Stewart injured his ankle, so he never reappeared. Stewart is my guy in the Panthers RB-race and has been Ok-ish the last few weeks, but the pop does not appear to be forthcoming.

 

Week-13 Version 1.0:

 -- Ryan Broyles played a brilliant game on Thanksgiving...beyond just the 126-yard effort. Given Titus Young's issues, and the talent of Broyles -- Broyles could be the next lesser-known WR to pop with consistency for Fantasy Football (a la a Cecil Shorts). If Broyles continues to start despite Young's return, then I would get really FF-enthused.

 -- Those with the Seattle-Defense may need to hop off them ASAP with the pending 4-game suspensions of Brandon Browner and Richard Sherman.

 -- Jalen Parmele's statistical output didn't look all too impressive this week, but for the rare few of you that did not watch the Titans-Jags game (sarcasm) -- Parmele nearly broke a TD run on his first touch (a 13-yard run), but he came up limping during this initial run. He then sat/rode a stationary bike and returned briefly before half-time. Just as he started taking over the game again in the 2nd-half, he came up limping again. Between all the limping, Parmele ran the ball sensationally. If he is clean for next week, he is a start. **NOT CLEAN, OUT FOR THE YEAR NOW**

 -- The Browns are one of the better NFL defenses, as well as one of the better Fantasy defenses. Facing Carson Palmer and Brady Quinn the next two weeks could be a sweet play for those defense-hopping.

 -- We were high on a Ronnie Hillman start this week, with a noted fear of a Knowshon Moreno cut-in. Once the late-news hit that Moreno was starting, that killed the Hillman vibe for using him for the week and probably for the FF-stretch run.

 -- Anyone out there holding on to hope for Vick Ballard, I would look elsewhere. Our computer said limited talent pre-NFL Draft, and that's all we see with Ballard is unimpressive runs. Decent touch counts, but poor output.

 -- The Jets-Defense could have Lindley, Henne, Locker and Rivers in the next four weeks... and could be a decent defensive option for those scrambling for defenses week-to-week. The Jets could run this table and get back in the playoff hunt. If Kevin Kolb starts next week, then I want no part of it.

 -- Mohamed Sanu = you're welcome. The computer had Sanu in its sights weeks before anyone thought of it even as deep-sleeper. This pre-game week he was more discussed, and now next week he will be yammered about non-stop. The thing is he hasn't really been utilized like he could -- there is upside here.

 -- Colin Kaepernick was less great this week, but he was still pretty solid for his first road start in the loud dome. We are still unsure what is taking place here with a QB that our computer says will struggle, but he is worth the gamble to see how this shakes out.

 -- Justin Blackmon should be solid again versus the Bills in Week-13, but then a fear-factor versus Antonio Cromartie the following week...as well as facing Sean Smith in Week-15.

 -- Pierre Garcon is a full-steam ahead start for Fantasy from here on in. Opposing defense doesn't matter. RG3 trumps opponent, and his style works perfectly with Garcon. This could have been huge all year, but you get to enjoy it down the stretch.

 -- You may be tired of me saying this for the last 10+ weeks, but Russell Wilson impresses me more every week. He could be huge for Fantasy in 2013-14+. He may be useful in a pinch down the 2012 stretch.

 -- The Cincinnati-Defense has Rivers-Romo the next two weeks, then possibly Vick after that. A nice run of high-turnover QBs.

 -- Beanie Wells is probably a decent FF-start versus NYJ and SEA (if their CBs are suspended) upcoming, and even better if Kevin Kolb is back.

 -- Denarius Moore caught a TD pass this week, giving him just one catch in the past two games. With CLE-DEN the next two weeks, he is likely a FF-sit. Maybe for KC-CAR in Weeks 15-16, he will be useful again.

 -- Isn't it amazing what Torrey Smith can do when the Ravens attempt to get him the ball? He's facing PIT next week, so probably back to nothing again for a week.

 -- If Heath Miller was dropped by anyone in your league upon the Ben injury, this would be the time to get in on him for the FF-playoff run.

 -- C.J. Spiller truly took the bulk of the carries over Fred Jackson. When Jackson did take touches, it did not look good.

 -- Chris Givens is taking a next-step toward becoming FF-viable every week. For the first time, we saw the Rams design several shorter plays to just get the ball to Givens to make plays (are you paying attention Cam Cameron?).

 -- When it mattered this week, Marcel Reece was stuffed by the Bengals. With Mike Goodson and Darren McFadden possibly back next week, I'd get ready for a plan-B on Reece.

 

Week-12 Version 2.0:

 -- The Cleveland-Defense is the proverbial "better than you think," so they might actually be a great FF-defense play in Week-12 versus Charlie Batch.

 -- Chad Henne with the suddenly dangerous WR-trio of Shorts-Blackmon-Robinson, facing the Titans, might actually be FF-useful this week.

 -- What Colin Kaepernick did on MNF...I cannot imagine he would sit for Alex Smith next week (but he probably will). Our computer does not like Kaepernick. In 2011, Kaepernick was a disappointing mess. On MNF in Week-11 of 2012, Kaepernick was simply brilliant.

 --  The Cincinnati Bengals-Defense has Palmer-Rivers-Romo-Foles/Vick in the next four weeks...four of the highest turnover QBs in the NFL.

 -- T.Y. Hilton could be big again this week, if Donnie Avery misses the game with concussion issues.

 -- Ronnie Hillman could/should be a top-15 Fantasy Football RB the rest of the way as the main starter now, but Knowshon Moreno is a serious threat to that.

 --  Our computer thinks Josh Freeman will crash back to earth the next two weeks with ATL and DEN. Freeman does not fare well against better pass-defenses. As Freeman goes, so goes Mike Williams and Vincent Jackson...as well as Dallas Clark, who has scored a TD in three of his last five games.

 

Week-12 Version 1.0:

 -- For those with RB roster issues -- If LeSean McCoy is going to miss time with a concussion, you have to make Bryce Brown a priority for a Week-12 start. Brown was one of the more eye-catching RBs of the 2012 preseason. When you really watch his tape, Brown will remind you of an Adrian Peterson...not saying he's "the next AP," but he runs with a similar power and speed. The former High School superstar, and college head case, has been finding redemption all year with Philly. Week-12 could be interesting versus the Panthers...if McCoy is out.

 -- There is no natural replacement for Rob Gronkowski (broken arm) on the Patriots. It's not like at RB, where the next man up is typically equal to the starter. Visanthe Shiancoe will not step in and be Gronk...no one will. This Gronk injury makes all the Pats passing game options take a step back, including Tom Brady.

Those that lost Gronk, sad to say, may have been dealt a 2012 FF-death blow. It's why we elevate the importance of the elite TE -- you cannot replace Gronk like you can most RBs. This upcoming week you might have RB waiver options like Bryce Brown, or Ronnie Hillman, or Jalen Parmele. Last week gave you Marcel Reece (or in my case, Taiwan Jones). Useful RBs keep coming. Top TEs don't exist after Gronk-Graham.

While you scrape the barrel for a new TE, I would consider making a discount trade for fading Vernon Davis. If you are going to gamble on mediocre Fantasy Football TEs, you might as well try the most talented TE in football...and hope someone throws him the ball every so often.

 -- Mohamed Sanu saved me this week by scoring a TD late. We projected Sanu to have some heavy action this week with his snap count growing and Andrew Hawkins out, but it was an under-whelming/low-target effort. Sanu played most of the snaps, and had the first play of the game designed for him, but did little between that first play and his late TD. However, it is two-weeks in-a-row with a TD for Sanu.

 -- Everyone will go insane for Justin Blackmon now, and I get it, but we haven't seen anything close to this type of action from Blackmon this season...and he has had many chances to shine. I'd still be worried that this was a bit of a blip, and not a rise to greatness yet. He still is working with Henne/Gabbert, and will now draw #1 CB coverage instead of #2-3 CB attention.

 -- Danario Alexander was one of the top-10 highest rated "big-WRs" (6'2+, 210+) that we have ever statistically scouted in the last decade. All that stands between he, and greatness is staying injury free. I am so glad for Alexander, who is a great kid who has been besieged by injury for years. Danario is to Philip Rivers, as Demaryius Thomas is to Peyton Manning -- a main option for weaker armed QBs to loft the ball in the general direction of their taller WR weapon and hope for good things to happen. Side Note: Alexander was cut by Buffalo a few weeks before he landed on the Chargers...

 -- Nick Foles will be a big joke for the mainstream this week. For most, their memory is one week long...or one highlight clip long. Foles is still a buy for me in Dynasty Leagues as a now much cheaper bet on him as a future good-great-elite NFL QB.

Foles usefulness for 2012 is definitely in question as a QB2 with upside (over most junk QB2's), after his underwhelming starting debut. Don't get long-term hysterical over one week, but short-term hysterical is OK given the lost cause the Eagles are. I'm not as hopeful of a 2012 breakout for Foles as a crafty redraft league QB2 insurance policy the rest of the way, as I was 24-hours ago.

 -- Riley Cooper only works if Nick Foles does. If Foles is going to struggle the rest of 2012, then Cooper will be hit & miss in 2012.

 -- Ryan Lindley is not NFL starting QB material -- not in relief this week, not with a week's practice, not with years of practice. A Lindley start means FF-death for Andre Roberts and Larry Fitzgerald.

 -- The St. Louis Rams Defense are a for sure sleeper play versus Arizona in Week-12 facing John Skelton, but are a top-start if Lindley is starting.

 -- I have been howling like a madman for years (because of the computer scouting ratings) about someone giving Jalen Parmele a chance. He finally got one, and had the best running-effort of any RB versus the Texans-Defense this year. Chris Johnson had more (garbage) yards vs. Houston in 2012, but Parmele ran superbly in a tight football game. Bet on Parmele over Jennings the rest of the non-MJD way for the Jags. 

 -- Bilal Powell had two TDs this week, but it would appear to be more circumstantial or an aberration than the sign of a breakout performance.

 -- The Antonio Gates era of Fantasy greatness, and goodness, is over. He's just another OK/solid TE who may or may not score a TD in a given week.

 -- Cedric Peerman really looks good running the ball, and his stat-line this week was nice. However, a chunk of his 75 yards rushing in Week-11 came on a 32-yard run off a fake punt.

 -- Our TE deep-sleeper of the week paid off nicely, as Garrett Graham has two TDs. I like Graham, but only with Owen Daniels out of the way. With Daniels back playing, Graham is part of a solid TE-trio.

 

 

Week-11 Version 2.0:

 -- Riley Cooper may be the biggest beneficiary of the Nick Foles uprising. Cooper posted 13 catches for 240 yards and a TD in three games as a fill-in starter last season in Weeks 11-13. This season he began on IR with a broken collarbone. Cooper is just now getting back up to speed, and he did score a TD (from Vick) this past week.

Cooper is a 6'3+, 220+ WR that got lost in the limited passing-game shuffle with Tebow at Florida. Cooper is an Eric Decker-Jordy Nelson-ish type of WR. Faster than you think, with great hands. Foles and Cooper would have worked a bunch together in the shadows of the first-team this year. It is a situation to watch for instant impact, and long-term possibilities if you believe that Foles is the long-term answer (as we do).

 -- The Bengals-Defense has Cassel/Quinn-Palmer-Rivers in the next three games...it may work for those picking through the fantasy-defense ruins.

 -- Garrett Graham could be the Texans second best passing-game option after Andre Johnson, if Owen Daniels is going to miss time (and Daniels is likely to miss the Jags game).

 -- If Big Ben is done, then Heath Miller is toast as a high-end Fantasy Football TE...and Mike Wallace is a very sketchy play as well.

 

Week-11 Version 1.0:

 -- We've been touting Mohamed Sanu for a couple of weeks now, and he took another step forward this week. The Bengals schedule gets very easy ahead thanks to the AFC West -- KC-OAK-SD in the next three weeks. Sanu can continue to emerge, and Andy Dalton is going to be a top-10 QB in that span.

 -- A couple of weeks ago I wrote in detail on why the Denver-Defense was going to emerge as one of the top defenses in the NFL, as well as a top play for Fantasy Football for the rest of 2012. Ta-da!

Note -- I will be going crazy all week as all the pundits jump on this bandwagon now. You know where you heard it first...

 -- The Seahawks-Defense has a BYE in Week-11, followed by Tannehill-Cutler-Skelton ahead. This will be a favorable run.

 -- I've been pro-Reggie Bush for the 2nd-half of 2012, but with an ever shakier confidence each week. After this week, I'm done. I haven't lost faith in Bush as a talent, but more I watch, the more I realize there is some problem between he and Coach Sherman. Bush fumbles early, and he's essentially done the rest of the game. Ryan Tannehill throws ridiculous passes all game (wound up with 3 INTs), but that's not a problem for coach. You can't count on Bush for big games ahead, because you can't count on Sherman. Bush is a "cross your fingers" play every week now.

 -- All I'm saying is "I told you so," that Danario Alexander was the best WR on the Chargers the moment he stepped on the field for them weeks ago. Enjoy the ride as long as you can, because unfortunately he has a long storied bout with knee/leg issues. I hope he can run clean the rest of his career, because our computer has felt Alexander could have been one of the NFL greats if not for his multiple knee injuries.

 -- Hakeem Nicks wouldn't have 14 targets this week if something was wrong with him. He is a "buy low" candidate for the stretch run.

 -- Coming off their Week-10 BYE's, don't forget about Beanie Wells possibly coming off IR. Furthermore, Josh Morgan as the Redskins #1 WR is something to consider going forward. Morgan has 10.0 targets in his last two games and has emerged as an RG3 "fave," but it's tentative.

 -- I've been crazy for Nick Foles for weeks, but we all have to remember that he is still a rookie. Just an awesome one...

Watching Foles in relief of Michael Vick, you saw some good and bad moments. Keep in mind that Foles came in cold with the Eagles missing 80-100% of its starting O-Line, and facing one of the top pass-defenses in the NFL (it's true, statistically). Foles walked in and started firing bullets right away. Had Jason Avant not tried to catch a sure 3rd-down conversion with his facemask on Foles' initial series, who knows how that game would have turned out? As the Eagles fell behind, Foles was forced to throw and everyone knew it. The Foles INT was caused by a DeSean Jackson bobble that was picked out of the air by Cowboys defender.

Foles will be great, but he's a touch-and-go rookie for Fantasy Football 2012. WAS-CAR ahead provides a nice beginning. Especially, the Redskins matchup.

 -- Jonathan Stewart is an investment that will pay-off after Week-11 vs. Tampa Bay. Facing Denver this week was going to be tough, and the Bucs will be rough as well.

 -- Jarius Wright is not the next Percy Harvin. The Vikings go on a BYE, and then Harvin will be back...and Wright will be forgotten.

 -- Some of you may have been unhappy with banking on our enthusiasm with Donald Jones in the preseason, but don't ignore the fact that he has 6.0 rec for 69.5 yards per game for 15.9 PPR FF PPG over the last two weeks. Jones is a talent, and is finally seeing higher target levels -- 9.5 pass-targets per game over the last two games.

 -- I could not be any more done with Pierre Thomas. In fact, I'm staying away from all the Saints RBs. There is nothing but heartache to be had. Chris Ivory is a serious talent, but Mark Ingram inexplicably received more than double carries of Ivory this week.

 

==========================================

Week-10 Version 2.0:

 -- I've not been a huge Brian Hartline fan (for FF), mostly because of the QBs he has worked with. However, Ryan Tannehill throws to him by default a bunch...and Hartline is coming down with some great catches. Facing TEN-BUF the next two weeks is going to continue to make him a nice play. Teams with a lock-down CB are going to easily cut him off...not TEN-BUF.

 -- James Starks took 17 carries, but Alex Green (11 carries) looked far superior as a runner in Week-9. People are down on Green, but re-watching tape, I like what I see. I don't like the Packers RB situation. This is going to get very muddled with Starks, Green, and when John Kuhn returns.

 -- I love Marcel Reece as a receiving weapon at RB, but I'll jump in with both feet on Taiwan Jones if McFadden/Goodson are inactive. Jones is a McFadden-clone...an inexperienced/unproven/gamble version of McFadden. BAL-NO ahead, two of the worst run-defenses in the NFL/FF.

 -- Tony Gonzalez has had three dud games in-a-row, and not much in four of his last five. He has fully fallen back to earth.

 -- Our computer still thinks Brandon Lloyd is a value play ahead for standard leagues, and decent for PPR. His acquisition price is at a 2012 low right about now.

 -- Redskins/TE Logan Paulsen is attracting heat as a waiver pickup, but I'd push for Brandon Myers (timely after 2 TDs, I know) as my slower/hands TE hope. More because RG3 just isn't throwing many TDs passes (6 TDs in his last 8 games, 4 TDs in his last 6 games).

 -- The computer has no interest in Cowboys BR Lance Dunbar.

 -- I had hopes for Pierre Thomas to be the main carry RB and the Sproles fill-in, but then Chris Ivory and Mark Ingram run the ball like they are both Adrian Peterson to start the MNF game. Thomas did great as well, but this Saints scene will always be an RBBC forever (with Brees). Credit to the Saints for great RB scouting, minus one dumb draft trade up for Ingram. Why exactly is Chris Ivory on the bench for the Saints? This situation is complete Fantasy Football mess with Sproles to return in a week or two.

 -- Note to those in a deeper roster IDP league: we don't study the IDP side/strategy as heavily (plans to expand in the future), so take this for what it is worth -- take a peek at Broncos LB Danny Trevathan.

 

Week-10 Version 1.0:

 -- Colts TE Dwayne Allen fully has my attention now. I've been impressed with the various glimpses he's shown this year, but starting in place of injured Coby Fleener -- Allen was very solid versus Miami this week. Our computer scouting of Allen saw him more as a great blocking-TE prospect, not as big of a receiving threat. However, in this heavy pass-attempt offense, Allen may be Luck's key end-zone threat the rest of 2012 (given the Colts have mostly smaller WRs).

 -- The Bears-Defense has been insane this year for Fantasy Football. It's likely to come crashing to an end versus HOU and SF in the upcoming two weeks. That's two very low turnover QBs to face in the next two games.

 -- Russell Wilson is now (4-0) at home, and has thrown 9 TD/0 INTs in the friendly confines as well. Everyone is going bonkers for Luck and RG3 (and rightfully so), but flying below the radar is perhaps an equally good rookie QB in Wilson. Wilson has thrown for more TDs than either Luck or RG3 this season. 

 -- This is now three games in-a-row with Reggie Bush below 15 carries in-a-game. The schedule ahead has more "nice" opportunities/opponents than not, but Bush is not a key RB for Coach Mike Sherman...more and more Daniel Thomas is on the field for important moments in the game. I loved Bush weeks ago, now I am living in fear with him.

 -- It's embarrassing how much better C.J. Spiller looks than Fred Jackson, but the Bills being the Bills gave Jackson more opportunities (carries + targets) than Spiller this week again. At some point, the balance has to shift to Spiller...no?

 -- Jonathan Stewart was a bit of a letdown this week, but keep in mind this was an usual game -- the Panthers only had the ball for 24:40 in this contest. Stewart only took 10 carries, and averaged 5.1 yards per carry...and looked very good. DEN-TB in the next two weeks will not be easy.

 -- Ryan Broyles caught all six of pass-targets this week, while Titus Young had two catches on five targets. Broyles is a talent who can emerge for PPR this season.

 -- We touted the Denver-Defense as a talented one getting ready to pop the rest of the season. We also felt the Week-9 matchup with Andy Dalton would just be "OK." Denver allowed 23 points to Cincy, but did register 5 sacks with a pick. Cam-Rivers-Quinn/Stanzi coming up the next three weeks.

 -- Eli Manning has fallen off the face of the earth for Fantasy, scoring just 8.6 FF PPG (4 pts pass TD) over the past four games and completing 54.5% of his passes. He becomes a nice QB2 cheap grab for insurance coming down the stretch. As a QB1, he's just about ruined your season at this point.

 -- T.Y. Hilton is pushing past Donnie Avery as the key non-Reggie Wayne WR for the Colts. Hilton can be a 5+ catch for 70+ yard WR consistently in this high pass-attempt offense.

 -- Mohamed Sanu was a deep-sleeper for us this week, but had just two catches. You may not see his one missed target in this game -- an alley-oop from three-yards away from the end-zone, a pass that was open, but Dalton overthrew him. Sanu has a chance to become a viable WR3/Flex ahead.

 

===========================================

Week-9 Version 2.0:

 -- Mike Thomas to Detroit is a brilliant trade by the Lions, one of the most underutilized talents of any of the possession/slot WRs of the past few years. It also means the Lions are not totally sold on Ryan Broyles and Titus Young for 2012...and I don't mean that from a talent sense, but from an injury sense...both have has issues the last couple years. Thomas is worth a sniff in a deeper league.

 -- I'm really interested to see where two talented RBs may wind up by the trade deadline on THU -- LeGarrette Blount and Chris Ivory. My 10-cent guess would be that Ivory lands with either Arizona, Green Bay, or St. Louis (or not traded at all).

My sleeper choice for LeGarrette Blount would be the NY Jets, with Cincinnati or Dallas as a possible long-shot along with the RB-needy Arizona Cardinals.

If I were an NFL GM, I would make a play for Chris Ivory or Mike Tolbert on the cheap. There is no need to waste high draft picks or big payroll on RBs in the NFL anymore. Blount and Ivory got people wildly excited at certain points of their initial opportunities in the NFL, it's not as if they're all promise with no history results. Trading away a ton of draft picks and paying a big salary to a Trent Richardson is such a waste in this era of the NFL, when you could land an (example) undrafted Chris Ivory for close to nothing.

Ivory has had seven career games (over 2 years) with 14 or more carries in a game, and has 690 rushing yards (98.6 yards per game) with four TDs. He has a career average of 5.0 yards per carry, with three of his 7 games with 14+ carries resulting in 100+ yard rushing efforts. Richardson has six career games with 14 or more carries, and two 100+ yard rushing games and a 3.7 career yards per carry.

I don't dispute that Richardson isn't a better all-around RB, but I'd rather shuffle in & out (examples) Ivory, Justin Forsett, and Mike Tolbert and apply my millions in payroll saved to other positions.

Those in a dynasty league with a spot to burn may want to pickup Ivory or Blount, and see what happens by THU and then drop them if nothing lands.

 -- I am like a dog howling at the moon right about now, but I still am making plays for Torrey Smith as the price continues to decline. You've seen what he is capable earlier this season when he gets the targets -- he is a top-10 FF WR talent. Torrey is quiet now, but 1-2 hot games and he'll be right back into the top 10-15. Not many WR talents like Torrey available at the price he is for most right now.

 -- Don't forget about Alshon Jeffery. Dropped in many redraft leagues due to his injury, BYE week needs, etc. When he returns, he is the beneficiary of the over-emphasis defenses will place on Brandon Marshall. Plus, Jeffery is a talent.

 -- If you buy Ben Tate as a viable start (when healthy) in 12-14 team leagues, you should consider Justin Forsett this week with Tate likely out.

 

 

Week-9 Version 1.0:

 -- The computer's red-hot takeaway from Week-8 = the Denver Broncos-Defense for the rest of 2012. They have faced five top QBs/offenses this year (Brees, Brady, Big Ben, Ryan, Schaub/Texans), and got worked by the teams that can run -- HOU and NE (and many defenses will get stomped by HOU and NE this year). The Broncos-D have held all those QBs under 250 yards passing (except Schaub). When facing Palmer/Rivers the Broncos-D has allowed 2 TD/4 INT passing, and 10.0 offensive points scored.

The schedule we predicted weeks ago that would re-launch Peyton/D. Thomas/McGahee also brings a fast-rising, excellent personnel, young defense along with it. They squashed Brees last night.

Dalton-Cam-Rivers-Cassel-Freeman-Palmer-Flacco-Weeden the rest of the way for Fantasy. I am going all-in where I have the HOU-D already, keeping HOU, but squatting on DEN for the final weeks (better matchups than HOU). Where I have NE-NYJ-MIA, I am switching over to DEN this week...crossing my fingers against Dalton, and game-on versus the rest of the schedule.

 -- Jonathan Stewart has always been a RB our computer thought could be a top-5 runner in the NFL. As a starter now, I have a good/great interest in Stewart. I don't trust the Panthers RB usage, so I'm not overpaying, but I would use this quiet game vs. Chicago (and his quiet season) to grab him for a discount wherever I could. Stewart ran well in this game, but the Chicago-Defense was excellent in opposition. Games versus WAS-DEN ahead should be a better showing for Stewart.

 -- D.J. Davis or Drew Davis is not a WR prospect of interest. He scored a TD for Atlanta this week filling in for the injured Harry Douglas, but he is mediocre (at best) physically, and was underwhelming in college for Oregon.

 -- Calvin Johnson has had a slow start to 2012, and has had several near-miss TDs all year. When you factor in a bad performance on Monday Night Football in Week-7, followed by a dud versus Seattle this week (and you should have anticipated such with the SEA-CBs), now is the time to get Calvin at as low a value as you are going to see.

 -- I had hoped Antonio Gates could snag another good game this week to further hype is trade value, but the stink of the Chargers passing-game dragged him down to insignificant again. I gambled, and lost.

 -- After a red-hot start, Tony Gonzalez has had three mediocre (and one phenomenal) game in his last four games. His numbers are on the decline, but his overall scoring still shows him as a top Fantasy Football TE. I wouldn't give him away, but I would trade up for a Jimmy Graham if a deal fell your way.

 -- Heath Miller is a legit top-3 Fantasy Football TE the rest of 2012. The pass-targets and red-zone looks have been screaming it for a couple of weeks. Unlike "flash in the pan" Fantasy TEs like Brent Celek or Dennis Pitta or Martellus Bennett...Miller (who I also thought would be a flash) has the upcoming schedule and current trending of a TE who will stay consistent (and has been in 2012).

 -- The fact that Danario Alexander is now seeing targets for the Chargers, along with Dante Rosario, means another small hit to the limited amount of end-zone targets available for Malcom Floyd and Antonio Gates.

 -- Kenny Britt had a total of 45 yards with a TD called back on two offensive pass-interference penalties this week. Britt's stat lines have been frustrating the lasy two weeks, but he has had several near-miss big plays...including two TDs in two weeks called back on legit P.I.'s by him.

 -- Sebastian Janikowski may be the best Kicker play for the rest of FF 2012. He has five of his next seven games at home. Janikowski now has three games in-a-row with double-digit Fantasy scoring.

 -- Chris Johnson just had his two easy games, with CHI-MIA-BYE ahead you should try to make your move for great value right now...

 -- JAC-MIN is a nice schedule of run-defenses ahead for Mikel Leshoure. We were beginning to get giddy on Leshoure after the SEA Week-8, but this odd pattern of RB usage with Joique Bell in this game (and other games), as well as a Kevin Smith goal-line carry has us tempered a bit.

 -- You had a window to trade Josh Gordon for a decent value last week, hope you took advantage of it.

 -- Cecil Shorts is a potential star slot/possession/Antonio Brown-type WR, only stuck on a poor passing team. He is obviously a worthy BYE-week fill-in, and Flex.

 -- Mike Wallace has had three quiet Fantasy scoring games in his last four games. However, there is a Big Ben shift taking place to Wallace over Antonio Brown...and it's something you should try to take advantage of ahead as the Steelers have a great schedule the rest of FF 2012.

In the past four games, Wallace has received 9.0 pass-targets per game, Brown with 8.5...and +0.5 spread to Wallace.

In the first three games (pre-BYE) of 2012, Brown was the main targets with 9.7 pass-targets per game, and Wallace 7.3...a -2.4 pass-target deficit to Wallace.

Wallace is becoming Big Ben's go-to WR over Brown, there should be a Fantasy Football scoring payday to go with that.

  -- OK, I give up on getting excited by Alex Green. Three games in-a-row with 20+ carries and 51.3 yards per game rushing delivered. He has had every opportunity to break out (especially against JAC), but has not. There is little reason to believe it will change against Arizona next week.

 

==============================

 

Week-8 = 2.0 additional notes in no particular order:

 -- The Jets-Defense may be a sneaky pickup, as I see them available in a few 12-team leagues. Tannehill-BYE-Wilson-Bradford-Brady-Skelton-Gabbert-Locker-Rivers for the rest of FF 2012.

 -- The computer thinks Mikel Leshoure is ready to pop beginning Week-9. Use the Week-7 Monday Night mediocrity, and fear-monger the Week-8 matchup with Seattle to make a bargain deal before the breakout.

 -- The computer thinks Mike Wallace is about to pop, along with Big Ben...from now until the rest of the FF season.

 -- Of course, you have to make a play for Rashad Jennings (assuming you are low person on the waiver totem pole), but for the record -- the computer has never thought he was a talent, and the schedule ahead is very daunting/choppy. GB-DET-IND-HOU...no thanks. Claim to trade is all I would so. I don't have priority anyway, nor would I spend money on a waiver-bid for him, unless I was completely in despair at RB.

 -- Ryan Broyles is a far superior talent to Titus Young, and really is a different kind of WR. Young is a little more one-trick pony...vertical, leap up and catch. Broyles is a true slot WR, a combination of speed & power that is rare among "small WRs." I don't know if Broyles emerges this week, or at all in 2012...but long term, he has the metrics of a NFL superstar (with a good/great QB). The only thing I will guarantee in this...Titus Young will be injured within the next three games. He is a very fragile WR, not a WR that can deal with a heavy workload/pounding (so says the computer).

 -- It's almost Vincent Brown return time in San Diego, but that doesn't excite me. Philip Rivers is in serious decline, and Brown is not an elite WR prospect...just good useful. Who knows how long his injury lingers? I would have to be out of options to waste a roster spot waiting for Brown...I'd rather have the aforementioned Ryan Broyles to gamble on.

 -- The more I see of Pittsburgh/Heath Miller tape, the more I believe his is going to stay among the top-5 or so Fantasy Football scoring TEs.

 

Week-8 = 1.0 in no particular order:

 -- I'm the biggest Darren McFadden cheerleader on the planet, even though I didn't draft him in any draft (you know I don't waste my first-round picks on RBs!). However, I have been an occasional buyer on the cheap mid-season. I've been a fan of what I've seen on tape...a lot of "almost" big runs. I think I'm at about 25 "almost" big plays and counting this year, with one "actual" big play that happened.

I'm done lusting after DMC. Actually, I'm not done...I've just lowered the acquisition price, that I'd be willing to pay, to a junk bond status. There are no holes for DMC to run through. Whatever the issue, if it didn't happen against Atlanta and Jacksonville in successive weeks, there's something wrong...and whatever it is, I ain't paying a lot for it.

 -- Pierre Thomas had a season-high 13 carries in Week-7...in fact, that's highest carries he's had in a game since 2010. The Saints have finally come to their senses on Mark Ingram, and the Saints are now shifting to the most talented runner they have. DEN-PHI-ATL ahead is a decent run to use PT if needed. He may even "break out" a bit in there.

 -- Very quietly, as TEs are falling apart in Fantasy (Vernon Davis, Pitta, Rudolph, Celek, etc.), Antonio Gates has more value than you realize.

 -- The Green Bay-Defense has Gabbert/Henne and Skelton/Kolb for the next two weeks. They may be the best defensive play for the next two weeks for those in daily leagues. *There is now a slight pause with Charles Woodson out for a while, but still a solid play ahead.

 -- I'd sell LaRod Stephens-Howling as fast as possible if someone was excited by the LSH possibilities. The schedule is rough ahead = SF-GB-BYE, plus Beanie will be coming back soon.

 -- We've been talking about Cecil Shorts in a positive light as a talent who is kind of stuck in purgatory with Jacksonville. However, Shorts was the recipient of 10 targets this week, which is a substantial shift toward him. He is becoming the main WR weapon for Jacksonville...for what that's worth. Although, Shorts now has 3 TDs this season.

 -- Chris Johnson has another great matchup in Week-8 with IND, but then he goes down hill with CHI-MIA-BYE after that.

 -- The usage, or lack thereof, of Kyle Rudolph is going to lead to more days like he had in Week-7. Don't rest assured that your TE issues are solved with Rudolph the rest of 2012.

 -- We loved Leonard Hankerson coming out of college, but haven't liked what we've seen coming off hip surgery. Assuming Garcon is going to be gone for an extended period, Hank is as plausible as any of the Redskins WRs to step up. We're cautiously optimistic on him.

 -- Vick Ballard is another "sell," if someone is excited. However, next week against TEN is a favorable matchup. If Donald Brown is healthy/slated to play, I'd bet on Brown in Week-8.

 -- Add, Josh Gordon to the "sell while hot" list. Gordon has 7 catches in his last three games, on 22 pass-target. A dismal connection percentage. Gordon is a flash in the pan based on these number trends.

 -- Two players who just look (to the naked scouting eye) like they have gotten very slow and have become just "average" players are Tony Romo and Miles Austin. The "backbone" of this offense is rapidly becoming antiquated. Austin's week-7 game with a TD may be a final window to move him for higher value.

 -- Fred Davis is lost for the season. Logan Paulsen led the Redskins in receiving yards in his place, but Paulsen is not a Fantasy Football sleeper. He's a converted former O-Lineman.

Assuming the Redskins sign Chris Cooley, I wouldn't get too excited there either. The Redskins let him go, and no other team was interested.

 -- I give up on Torrey Smith (kinda). The Ravens seem not to have a clue of how to get Smith the ball in better situations. Smith had been under-targeted for weeks, but this week Torrey saw 13 targets...but most of them impossible to catch. The Ravens offense is lost; Pitta and Torrey are wasting away...again.

 -- Brian Quick keeps seeing red-zone targets, and getting near-miss TDs each week. At some point, he is going to hit with a big game...if you find yourself looking for a desperation WR in weeks ahead for deeper leagues.

 -- Yes, that was Shane Vereen taking all the action in the first series for the Pats this week. As you may know, I've been a giant pro-Vereen advocate...so you think I would be excited? I didn't even blink when I saw this. I resigned myself weeks ago that the Pats RB situation is going to muddled all year, and probably into 2013+. It's why I recommended you sell your Stevan Ridley stock weeks ago.

 -- Alex Green took 20 carries against a suddenly stout Rams run-defense. Green should have good/great numbers the next two weeks with JAC-ARI before a Week-10 BYE.

 

==============

10/16 additional, in no particular order...

 -- Some of you woke up with suddenly semi-valuable TE in Antonio Gates. Before you run off giddy at some new-found value to trade it off...ask yourself this -- what TEs are better to have than Gates going forward? Graham, Gronk, Gonzo, V. Davis (maybe, have you seen the last few weeks), Rudolph (maybe?). If you deal him, keep in mind, he has more value than you think -- your perspective is off because you've been "long suffering" with Gates all year. Outside of about 3-4 people, everyone sees Gates as possible salvation right now. Keeping him another week is not crazy, on a number of levels...the least of which is if he scores again next week, he will be "on fire" for TE value.

 -- Cedric Peerman is not a crazy RB gamble. BJGE is not good, and Brian Leonard is stiff...and the true-talent is gone with injury (Bernard Scott). Peerman is not a star, but he is incredibly fast, and has been very persistent/stuck with the Bengals (and they with him) for years. He could win a split, if not a starting role at some point, by attrition.

 -- A semi-quiet game for Demaryius Thomas, as teams try to double cover him -- this may be a value dip week to make a move on him. The schedule ahead is going to propel Peyton-Thomas-Decker and probably McGahee to near the tops of Fantasy output for the rest of the Fantasy Football regular season.

 -- Deep, deep, deep PPR leagues...UDFA WR Josh Cooper was Brandon Weeden's favorite target in college. Relationship has some value, and the fact that all the Browns WRs are dreadful. Cooper is a great "hands" type WR, not a star.

 -- I'm still a buyer on Julio Jones. His pass-targets continue to be high, red-zone looks high, and his schedule is going to continue to push all Falcons offensive players (except Jacquizz) for weeks/all season.

 -- If you even sense John Skelton will start this week...the Minnesota-Defense might be the play of the year this week (and they have legs for a couple weeks).

 -- We're about one more loss away (if it is in their next game) from Nick Foles and Ricky Stanzi, I have a feeling. That doesn't mean a ton for redraft leagues, but Dynasty league owners your clock is ticking.

 -- The Week-7 CLE RB has value if it's not Trent due to facing Indy. I'd bet on Montario Hardesty over Chris Ogbonnaya. Hardesty was once a Metrics "like," but injuries took his career away seemingly. He looked much better last week.

 

10/15/12:

In no particular order...

 -- Every time I watch the Rams of late; Chris Givens is making bigger plays and getting more targets. Givens had 2 catches on 9 targets through his first three games of 2012. In his last three games, Givens has 5 catches for 188 yards and a TD on 15 targets. He has three straight weeks with a play of 50 yards or longer. Read a full NFL Draft scouting report of him at www.collegefootballmetrics.com. The short version is -- he is useful, speedy, and an injury risk.

 -- Andre Johnson was barely open all night versus Green Bay...even in the prevent-ish type defenses. As we've noted for weeks, as have others, the Andre days as an elite NFL/FF WR are long gone.

 -- With the Bucs schedule ahead of NO-MIN-OAK-SD-CAR, Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams are going to continue to be good/great Fantasy Football starts for the next five weeks.

 -- Remember who was saying for weeks that Russell Wilson was playing much better than the stats were indicating, and that a pop might be coming to a higher level of Fantasy Football viability. I just didn't think it was going to happen this week. Russell Wilson might become a poor man's RG3.

 -- I'd jump on Alex Green if someone was lukewarm on him after the Sunday night box score hits. He ran the ball tough against a top run-defense. The schedule ahead of STL-JAC-ARI should be a bit more friendly.

 -- Denarius Moore is very good, but he always seems to be derailed by injury or Jacoby Ford returning. Keep an eye on both. If neither occurs, Moore will be a top-20 Fantasy Football WR for the next few weeks.

 -- Chris Johnson will get at least 100+ yard rushing game in the next two weeks, if not accomplishing it twice facing BUF-IND in Weeks 7-8. Then CJ comes crashing down against CHI-MIA. 

 -- We tried to warn you about Vick Ballard...

 -- I wrote about it in greater detail, but Ben Roethlisberger may make a push toward a top-3 Fantasy Football QB the next few weeks with CIN-WAS-NYG-KC ahead. Big Ben has pass-attempts per game at the highest of his career, and growing. When Ben has thrown 40+ times in a game this year (3 times) he is scoring 22+ PPG for Fantasy Football (4 pts per pass TD)

With the Ben take-off, our computer also thinks Mike Wallace may drive his scoring among the top-5 for WRs.

 -- Josh Gordon hit on another long TD this week, and I am still not a believer. However, he is better than our statistical scouting (of which we thought he would do almost nothing in the NFL). Gordon hits on a big strike, then disappears in games. It's a good thing for the Browns, but not going to be consistent for FF.

 -- Honestly, I don't know what you do with Dez Bryant now? We've not seen this type of output from Bryant, back-to-back 95+ yard games and now a multi-TD game. Bryant has the talent. Our computer recognizes that, but it also recognizes Bryant has been an inconsistent dud for Fantasy Football for three years...until now. Which Bryant comes to the party next week, and weeks after? The data says he will flame back out, but next week against Carolina is tasty.

 -- William Powell looked the best of the rookie debut RBs in Week-6 (over Green and Ballard). However, facing MIN-SF-GB-BYE the next four weeks...I'm dealing him if anyone is a taker.

 -- Christian Ponder is not ready for that next level of Fantasy Football QB just yet. Facing one of the worst defenses in the NFL (due to injuries), Ponder coulda/shoulda had 2-3 TD passes in the 1st-quarter. Instead, three FGs to start the game...ultimately costing them the game. One part Ponder's issues, one part Leslie Frazier enslaved to Adrian Peterson not being able to go three plays without touching the ball.

 -- Donnie Avery had 12 targets this week, making it five straight games with 8+ pass-targets. If only he would have caught more of them...

 -- Speaking of things we cannot reconcile...I have no idea how Torrey Smith can be so good, and get so little targets. Smith is a top-5 NFL/FF talent, being targeted like an insignificant WR. The data would say that Cam Cameron is going to win out, leaving Torrey as a perpetual hair pull for FF owners trying figure out what to do with him week-to-week.

 -- OK, I quit on Dennis Pitta (although I will still keep him as my TE2 where he's been). I quit on thinking "this could be the season." Pitta is super talented, but again...go with Cam Cameron over our computer. The Ravens clearly need more throws to ancient Anquan Boldin, and crafty FB in the flat passes to the incredibly slow Vonta Leach. Two lucky wins the last two weeks. My son's 3rd grade football team had a more innovative offense.

 -- It doesn't matter if Kevin Kolb is out for weeks, or bounces back to start next week. He has proven our long-held point that he is a viable, potentially very good/great NFL QB...and not a joke. All that doesn't matter because I'm officially done with Kolb for Fantasy Football 2012 (as a BYE week fill-in option), because he cannot get any level of protection and is constantly running for his life.

 -- If Demarco Murray is out for long, I like Philip Tanner over Felix Jones as a sleeper play next week versus Carolina, but the smart money is on Felix.

 

==============================================

10/8/12: WEEK-6

2.0 adds, in no particular order

 -- In the 1.0 version (below), I am mad at Antonio Gates. He has been a huge 2012 let down...so I'm angry. However, re-watching this weeks game, and looking at several other games along with the current TE "state of the union"...Gates may be worth a look going forward as people chuck him away. There are numerous near-miss "big things" that keep happening with him. For the price, and the other options, I wouldn't ditch him or ignore him as a gamble ahead.

 -- As much as we do not like Colin Kaepernick as an NFL QB, for one week with Alex Smith possibly ruled out, he is worth a look among the QB rubble if you need BYE week help. He could run for 100 yards and pass for 50 yards.

 -- Start acquiring C.J. Spiller on the cheap. Current owners don't give up. It may take another week or two, but the Bills have to go heavy Spiller to save their jobs/season. The only time the Bills have been relevant this year is with Spiller as the main RB.

 -- Deep, deep, deep RB gamble...Knowshon Moreno. He's buried among the in-actives now. Teams like Arizona and Cincinnati need RB help, and more teams will join that list as RBs fall apart. The Broncos might as well get something for him with the emergence of Ronnie Hillman as a #2 RB.

 -- The best schedule for a Fantasy Football Defense ahead for the next 6-7 weeks is the New England Patriots-Defense. More on that in detail this week.

 -- Hakeem Nicks cannot be any cheaper than right now? Use the Barden, Nixon, Randle fears to lower that price. All those WRs are nice, but Nicks is a whole other level. Kinda like people thought Andre Brown would make Ahmad Bradshaw a memory. Not so fast...

 -- Our computer has thought Alex Green could be a good/great RB all along. He may get his chance at a start this week (likely). I just wish his first chance wasn't against at Houston.

 -- I'd still buy Jordy Nelson. Price is low to acquire now.

 -- Andre Johnson looks like a WR who has gone from a "A" or "A+" WR, to a solid "B". We've said it for weeks, I'd hop off that train if someone was a buyer.

 -- Don't give up on Donnie Avery in that high pass-attempt Colts offense. Avery has never had less than 8 targets in a game this entire season.

 -- The Cardinals main RB will absolutely not be LaRod Stephens-Howling. The most likely main carry RB for the Cardinals while Well/Williams are out (besides Knowshon Moreno) is William Powell, who is a scrappy, decent RB the Cardinals coaches like. The more talented (computer's opinion), experienced RB is Alfonso Smith. Gun to my head, I guess Smith this week. Most likely is a RBBC, but the one who can take a full workload right away is Smith. The Cardinals O-Line can't block anyway, so I'm not sure it matters...

==============================

1.0 Version, in no particular order...

 -- Kyle Rudolph keeps pulling out a TD in most games so far this season, but his usage overall during these games is a "yawn." For the last 3-4 weeks, Rudolph seems to be the target of two kinds of passes: (1) a short, almost screen-type of pass that Rudolph turns into a 3-4 yard gain (he is too slow to do much with short passes). (2) Ponder floats a wounded duck to him in the end-zone, and somehow he comes down with it. Rudolph is not yet going to the "next level" among Fantasy Football TEs; he is a "sexy" version (because he is "new") of Heath Miller or old-school Todd Heap. Good player in a great situation with Minnesota to score short TDs, but I am seeing nothing that shows the Vikings have him as a dynamic part of the offense yet.

 -- QB woes? No one available? Big Ben may be a little cheaper right now, and faces TEN-CIN-WAS-NYG-KC ahead with his BYE-week past him. With that, Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown should be pretty salty for the next few weeks as well.

 -- If you buy into this Josh Gordon blip, I disown you. A broken coverage long TD, followed by 5-6 miss-targets before a TD late. Don't place a bet here. I know he has more TDs than Calvin Johnson, Jordy Nelson, and Antonio Brown this year, but still...

 -- I am a Peyton Manning fan, but the last few weeks of output is an over-hyped head-fake masking his talent erosion. Is every game going to be the Broncos go down by a million, Peyton is ineffective, defenses go into an early prevent defense, and Peyton gobbles up stats dump passing his way (fruitlessly) back into games? It's great for Fantasy Football production, but he is by no means "back." Nor will he ever be. He is a crafty veteran leader. When the games matter (1st-half), the Broncos are getting bum-rushed and Peyton is struggling.

That whole Peyton-theory is why our computer went bonkers for Demaryius Thomas a few weeks ago as a projected top-5 Fantasy Football WR the rest of 2012. You saw it front and center in this game -- all Peyton can do to try to open up the field is chuck in Thomas's general direction...Peyton can't do that with Decker, Tamme et al. After this week's performance, you have little chance of acquiring Thomas cheaper now. This story is going to hold up all season...

 -- The Broncos have a fairly easy schedule the rest of 2012 now, so it would also be wise to make a cheap investment in Willis McGahee, coming off a poor performance in the nationally televised afternoon game this week. The Broncos will be high scoring/producing the rest of 2012, which should give McGahee a bunch of short TDs opportunities.

 -- We thought Ryan Williams might break through a bit for Weeks 5 & 6, but the Cardinals O-Line is so bad...we are shifting positions. In Dynasty Leagues, you may consider letting the next couple weeks of schedule play out and totally wreck any value he has...then swoop in at the bottom and squat on him for 2013. He is running the ball well, but that O-Line is a train wreck. I'm sure Arizona will address that next year. We're not huge fans of Williams in general, but the situation and the price tag may make it logical to take a lottery-ticket on snatching a 15+ carry-a-game RB in 2013...maybe. GONE FOR THE YEAR on injury. Has been too injury prone to worry about.

 -- Michael Crabtree just gave you a nice output game to get those hidden Crabtree-"lust-ers" a chance to "steal" him from you. Deal him while he's hot. Nice output against Buffalo means nothing. The 49ers schedule of defenses gets very difficult from here on in. Crabtree's targets aren't growing. He just had a nice game...against Buffalo. Use it to your advantage, because he goes back to his normal mediocrity for most of the rest of 2012.

 -- You might wake up to see an awful Jimmy Graham stat line, but if you didn't see the game -- Graham had an issue with his ankle. Early on he missed a little time getting re-taped, and played on less snaps than normal...mostly used as a decoy while Brees abused San Diego with Marques Colston and Devery Henderson. If Graham goes on sale, those without him, now is the time to go shopping.

 -- Those that wake up to another Antonio Gates disaster, note that the towel should be officially hurled into the ring. This is a Philip Rivers issue more than it is Gates issue. As we have said for a couple of weeks (and in the preseason draft guide), the Chargers schedule of defenses to face turns from previously easy to difficult ahead. Philip Rivers is "done," more than Peyton Manning is. Rivers is not a pretender/possible elite QB any longer...he has become a dump off to the RB specialist now. He is very shaky getting the ball down-field, which kills Gates and Malcom Floyd. To add insult to injury...Gates has his hands on a TD in the back of the end-zone (again), and a defender popped the ball loose. Gates also had a 40+ yard catch late turned back on a very suspect penalty.

All that said, Gates is not a bad TE-2 gamble. He has been circling the wagons for a TD in most every game this year, but something slapstick always happens to prevent it.

 -- Two weaker games in-a-row for MJD...it's not a bad time to kick the tires on an acquisition if someone is panicking. OAK-GB-DET-IND lies ahead after the Week-6 BYE. He'll be fine, he always is.

 -- If anyone would like to apologize for doubting the computer last year when it said something wasn't right with Cam Newton, feel free to email your apologies and sob-stories this week. We'll work out some kind of penance. I wouldn't panic too hard. The schedule softens up a bit, and he can return to running his way back to your Fantasy Football hearts. From an NFL perspective...I wonder when someone will admit Newton might be a colossal mistake as a franchise QB? Please, all I ask, remember it was me/the computer that perilously fought against 99.999% of society on this all year last year.

 -- People are getting whipped up on the Rams-Defense for Fantasy Football after their big game against Arizona, and solid start to the season. Rodgers-Brady-BYE-A. Smith ahead...I want no part of that. I also want no part of GB-NE-BYE-SF-NYJ-ARI-SF ahead for Steven Jackson either.

 -- Pierre Garcon has moved from blazing hot, to people doubting. I would jump on him as a value if he comes cheaply. For those current owners, stay patient.