We do
consider
fractional games played, due to injury etc, in our current and prior year calculations
We do NOT use
Week-17/season ending games in our prior year calculations
Anything that
we change on projections during the week, we will note with a symbol
List ranked by "Traditional" Fantasy
Football Scoring" (1 point
per 10 yards, 6 points per TD, lost points
for fumble lost)
Our TARGET data include targets on penalties, we
are looking for "intent"/activity/usage
PLAYER NOTES BELOW
PROJECTIONS TABLE...
|
Rank |
Weekly Over-Under (Trad) |
Weekly Over-Under (PPR) |
Name |
Team |
Wk |
OPP |
Time |
H/A |
CLIMATE |
Surf |
2010 PPG Trad |
2011 PPG Trad |
Last 5 wks PPG Trad |
2010 PPG PPR |
2011 PPG PPR |
Last 5 Wks PPG PPR |
|
Target per G |
Red Zone Targets per Game |
Rec per Game YTD |
Rec Yds per Game YTD |
TDs per Game YTD |
|
1) |
11.5 |
15.6 |
Gronkowski, Rob (+) |
NE |
17 |
BUF |
1 |
H |
COOL |
FT |
6.4 |
14.5 |
15.5 |
8.8 |
20.0 |
20.7 |
|
7.6 |
1.7 |
5.5 |
81.3 |
1.1 |
|
2) |
9.8 |
13.9 |
Graham, Jimmy (+) |
NO |
17 |
CAR |
1 |
H |
DOME |
MoT |
2.5 |
12.0 |
11.2 |
4.6 |
18.0 |
17.0 |
|
9.3 |
1.8 |
6.1 |
80.9 |
0.7 |
|
3) |
8.6 |
12.8 |
Hernandez, Aaron (+) |
NE |
17 |
BUF |
1 |
H |
COOL |
FT |
6.4 |
9.2 |
9.8 |
9.6 |
14.7 |
16.0 |
|
7.8 |
1.8 |
5.5 |
59.4 |
0.5 |
|
4) |
7.9 |
13.0 |
Cook, Jared |
TEN |
17 |
HOU |
1 |
A |
WARM |
G |
3.6 |
5.5 |
7.0 |
5.8 |
8.5 |
11.0 |
|
4.9 |
0.3 |
3.0 |
45.7 |
0.2 |
|
5) |
7.9 |
12.1 |
Gresham, Jermaine |
CIN |
17 |
BAL |
4 |
H |
OK |
FT |
4.7 |
6.8 |
6.8 |
8.2 |
10.7 |
10.6 |
|
6.3 |
1.2 |
3.9 |
40.3 |
0.5 |
|
6) |
7.4 |
10.7 |
Gonzalez, Tony (--) |
ATL |
17 |
TB |
4 |
H |
DOME |
MoT |
6.1 |
8.4 |
6.1 |
10.4 |
13.5 |
11.9 |
|
7.6 |
1.4 |
5.1 |
57.9 |
0.4 |
|
7) |
7.4 |
11.1 |
Witten, Jason |
DAL |
17 |
NYG |
SNF |
A |
COOL |
FT |
9.0 |
7.8 |
4.1 |
15.0 |
12.6 |
8.1 |
|
7.3 |
0.9 |
4.8 |
58.2 |
0.3 |
|
8) |
7.4 |
12.2 |
Keller, Dustin |
NYJ |
17 |
MIA |
1 |
A |
WARM |
G |
6.6 |
6.6 |
7.5 |
10.2 |
10.5 |
11.9 |
|
7.2 |
1.2 |
3.9 |
51.3 |
0.3 |
|
9) |
6.3 |
9.2 |
Pettigrew, Brandon (+) |
DET |
17 |
GB |
1 |
A |
COOL |
G |
6.3 |
6.4 |
6.9 |
10.9 |
11.5 |
12.1 |
|
7.7 |
1.3 |
5.1 |
44.1 |
0.3 |
|
10) |
6.3 |
9.5 |
Dickson, Ed |
BAL |
17 |
CIN |
4 |
A |
OK |
FT |
1.9 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
2.9 |
8.5 |
7.2 |
|
5.9 |
0.8 |
3.5 |
33.9 |
0.3 |
|
11) |
5.9 |
9.0 |
Davis, Vernon |
SF |
17 |
STL |
1 |
A |
DOME |
FT |
7.9 |
6.7 |
5.8 |
11.5 |
10.7 |
9.8 |
|
5.7 |
0.5 |
3.9 |
44.9 |
0.4 |
|
12) |
5.4 |
8.9 |
Tamme, Jacob |
IND |
17 |
JAC |
1 |
A |
WARM |
G |
8.9 |
3.0 |
3.1 |
15.6 |
5.3 |
5.1 |
|
3.9 |
0.8 |
2.4 |
22.1 |
0.1 |
|
13) |
4.8 |
7.6 |
Rudolph, Kyle |
MIN |
17 |
CHI |
1 |
H |
DOME |
MoT |
X |
3.0 |
4.7 |
1.9 |
4.7 |
6.2 |
|
2.5 |
0.4 |
1.6 |
17.6 |
0.2 |
|
14) |
4.5 |
7.7 |
Winslow, Kellen (+) |
TB |
17 |
ATL |
4 |
A |
DOME |
FT |
6.7 |
5.4 |
4.4 |
10.9 |
10.0 |
8.6 |
|
7.5 |
0.9 |
4.5 |
46.5 |
0.1 |
|
15) |
4.5 |
7.0 |
Celek, Brent (+) |
PHI |
17 |
WAS |
1 |
H |
OK |
G |
5.1 |
6.4 |
9.3 |
7.9 |
10.2 |
13.1 |
|
5.8 |
0.9 |
3.7 |
48.3 |
0.3 |
|
16) |
4.3 |
6.8 |
Moore, Evan (--) |
CLE |
17 |
PIT |
1 |
H |
COOL |
G |
4.0 |
4.4 |
6.0 |
5.8 |
6.9 |
9.0 |
|
3.3 |
0.8 |
2.5 |
23.8 |
0.3 |
|
17) |
4.2 |
6.4 |
Olsen, Greg |
CAR |
17 |
NO |
1 |
A |
DOME |
MoT |
4.4 |
5.5 |
3.5 |
6.8 |
8.5 |
5.1 |
|
6.0 |
0.9 |
3.0 |
36.0 |
0.3 |
|
18) |
4.2 |
6.4 |
Shockey, Jeremy (--) |
CAR |
17 |
NO |
1 |
A |
DOME |
MoT |
4.4 |
4.7 |
5.7 |
7.7 |
7.1 |
7.7 |
|
4.0 |
0.6 |
2.4 |
31.2 |
0.3 |
|
19) |
4.0 |
7.2 |
Clay, Charles |
MIA |
17 |
NYJ |
1 |
H |
WARM |
G |
X |
2.9 |
2.3 |
X |
4.2 |
3.0 |
|
2.0 |
0.3 |
1.3 |
19.3 |
0.2 |
|
20) |
3.7 |
6.2 |
Bennett, Martellus |
DAL |
17 |
NYG |
SNF |
A |
COOL |
FT |
1.7 |
1.5 |
2.0 |
3.9 |
3.3 |
4.3 |
|
2.8 |
0.4 |
1.8 |
15.4 |
0.0 |
|
21) |
3.7 |
5.8 |
Lewis, Marcedes |
JAC |
17 |
IND |
1 |
H |
WARM |
G |
8.0 |
3.0 |
3.9 |
11.6 |
5.5 |
6.5 |
|
5.6 |
0.8 |
2.5 |
29.6 |
0.0 |
|
22) |
3.5 |
5.5 |
Chandler, Scott (+) |
BUF |
17 |
NE |
1 |
A |
COOL |
FT |
X |
5.5 |
2.6 |
X |
8.1 |
5.6 |
|
3.3 |
1.0 |
2.6 |
28.4 |
0.5 |
|
23) |
3.3 |
5.8 |
Gates, Antonio |
SD |
17 |
OAK |
4 |
A |
WARM |
G |
13.2 |
8.6 |
8.8 |
17.9 |
13.5 |
13.8 |
|
6.7 |
1.3 |
4.9 |
56.0 |
0.5 |
|
24) |
3.1 |
5.7 |
Cameron, Jordan |
CLE |
17 |
PIT |
1 |
H |
COOL |
G |
X |
0.6 |
0.6 |
X |
2.3 |
2.6 |
|
2.3 |
0.0 |
1.7 |
6.0 |
0.0 |
|
25) |
3.1 |
5.2 |
Pitta, Dennis |
BAL |
17 |
CIN |
4 |
A |
OK |
FT |
0.0 |
3.3 |
5.5 |
0.4 |
5.7 |
7.7 |
|
3.5 |
0.3 |
2.4 |
24.5 |
0.1 |
|
26) |
3.0 |
5.2 |
Dreessen, Joel |
HOU |
17 |
TEN |
1 |
H |
WARM |
G |
4.5 |
4.6 |
5.6 |
6.9 |
6.3 |
7.8 |
|
2.4 |
0.5 |
1.7 |
22.3 |
0.4 |
|
27) |
2.9 |
5.4 |
Harbor, Clay |
PHI |
17 |
WAS |
1 |
H |
OK |
G |
X |
1.8 |
1.1 |
X |
2.8 |
1.9 |
|
1.3 |
0.2 |
1.0 |
12.8 |
0.1 |
|
28) |
2.5 |
4.3 |
Casey, James |
HOU |
17 |
TEN |
1 |
H |
WARM |
G |
1.6 |
2.7 |
0.3 |
3.0 |
3.9 |
0.8 |
|
1.9 |
0.1 |
1.2 |
18.8 |
0.1 |
|
29) |
2.5 |
4.6 |
McCoy, Anthony |
SEA |
17 |
ARI |
4 |
A |
DOME |
G |
2.9 |
1.3 |
0.9 |
5.2 |
2.5 |
1.4 |
|
2.2 |
0.1 |
1.2 |
13.3 |
0.0 |
|
30) |
2.5 |
3.8 |
Finley, Jermichael |
GB |
17 |
DET |
1 |
H |
COOL |
G |
9.0 |
7.5 |
7.0 |
14.3 |
10.7 |
9.8 |
|
5.5 |
1.1 |
3.2 |
46.9 |
0.5 |
|
31) |
2.4 |
5.1 |
Kendricks, Lance |
STL |
17 |
SF |
1 |
H |
DOME |
FT |
X |
2.1 |
1.5 |
X |
4.0 |
3.3 |
|
3.9 |
0.6 |
1.9 |
23.1 |
0.0 |
|
32) |
2.2 |
3.7 |
Scheffler, Tony |
DET |
17 |
GB |
1 |
A |
COOL |
G |
2.8 |
4.2 |
2.1 |
5.6 |
5.8 |
3.7 |
|
2.6 |
0.7 |
1.6 |
20.1 |
0.4 |
|
33) |
2.2 |
3.8 |
Heap, Todd |
ARI |
17 |
SEA |
4 |
H |
DOME |
G |
7.0 |
4.1 |
4.9 |
10.1 |
7.8 |
9.4 |
|
5.5 |
0.2 |
3.7 |
41.3 |
0.0 |
|
34) |
2.2 |
4.0 |
Beckum, Travis |
NYG |
17 |
DAL |
SNF |
H |
COOL |
FT |
2.0 |
2.3 |
4.6 |
3.1 |
2.8 |
5.3 |
|
1.2 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
13.3 |
0.2 |
|
35) |
2.1 |
3.4 |
Miller, Heath |
PIT |
17 |
CLE |
1 |
A |
COOL |
G |
3.6 |
4.8 |
2.5 |
6.4 |
8.1 |
4.9 |
|
4.8 |
0.5 |
3.3 |
40.5 |
0.1 |
WEEK-17 PREDICTIONS BASED ON THE CURRENT DATA:
UPSIDE SURPRISE:
Jared Cook vs. HOU
Cook was our
downside TE for Week-16...and all he did was have his best output game in his
career. Why we were against Cook last week?...Cook has rarely had a good/great
game in his NFL career, and when he has had a nice game...he has followed that
up with a "dud" for output. All that was true until Weeks 15-16.
Cook's pass-targets are elevating
quickly...9.5 targets per game in his last two games, and 7+
pass-targets in 4 of his last 6 games. We are still very skeptical of Cook's
ability to have consistent/elite performance (physically, he is off-the-charts).
However, this week Cook faces a Texans team that has the luxury of resting
players. The Texans have little motivation, the Titans have a long-shot hope at
the wild-card. We'll take Cook for a TD in this one, against a likely 2nd-3rd
string Texans defense.
Honorable Mention -- Dustin Keller vs. MIA, Ed
Dickson vs. CIN
LOW SCORE SURPRISE: Antonio
Gates vs. OAK
From the Chargers
franchise standpoint...there is no reason to play Gates much, or at all, in this
game. If I were the owner of the Chargers, I would mandate the Gates make a
brief appearance at best...there is no reason to put an oft-injured, veteran
player at risk in a meaningless game. Nothing against Gates, we just don't think
he will see much PT this week.
Honorable
Mention -- Brent Celek vs. WAS, Kellen Winslow vs. ATL
TE THAT COULD COME OUT OF NOWHERE:
Jordan Cameron vs. PIT
Our computer scouting is
skeptical on this 2011 rookie TE prospect. He is a very intriguing prospect from
a physical standpoint, but he has been short on statistical output in college.
In the past two weeks, Cameron has received 3 targets in each game...showing a
late-season sign of life. Cameron has the kind of ability to catch a short pass,
and turn it into something bigger. If Cameron can attract 5+ targets this week,
he might roll a big play in there on an unsuspecting Steelers coverage man.
Honorable Mention -- Clay Harbor
vs. WAS, Marcedes Lewis vs. IND
