FANTASY FOOTBALL WEEK-17 Scoring Projections: QB SIT/START

FANTASY FOOTBALL METRICS

QB Weekly Projections, Sit Start Suggestions for Fantasy Football 2011

fantasyfootballmetrics.com - a Fantasy Football website
Fantasy Football Metrics Player Ranking and Projections

Fantasy Football Weekly Projections

QB WEEKLY PROJECTIONS  :  PLAYER RANKINGS  :  SIT  :  START

2011 FANTASY FOOTBALL SIT & START

 

WEEK 17 -- QB   Scoring Projections           Click Here for More Sit and Start Suggestions

Traditional scoring (1 point per 25 yards passing, 4 points per pass TD) is the lead column sort/rank

We do use fractional games, due to injury etc, in our current and prior year calculations

We do NOT use Week-17/season ending games in our prior year calculations

Anything that we change during the week, we will note with a symbol

PLAYER NOTES BELOW PROJECTIONS TABLE...

 

Rank 4pt Pass TD/25 yds per pt Over-Under 6pt Pass TD/25 yds per pt Over-Under 4pt Pass TD/20 yds per pt Over-Under 6pt Pass TD/20 yds per pt Over-Under Name Team Week OPP Time H/A CLIMATE TURF 2009 PPG 4pt TD 2010 PPG 4pt TD 2011 PPG YTD 4pt TD Last 5 Wks FF PPG, 4 pt per   Pass Yds per G Pass TD per G INT per G
1) 21.8 26.8 25.0 30.0 Brady, Tom (+) NE 17 BUF 1 H COOL FT 17.5 18.9 22.9 26.3   326.5 2.4 0.7
2) 21.5 24.9 24.0 27.4 Newton, Cam (--) CAR 17 NO 1 A DOME MoT 13.2 X 23.4 24.9   259.5 1.3 1.1
3) 20.0 24.0 23.2 27.2 Brees, Drew (+) NO 17 CAR 1 H DOME MoT 19.5 17.4 23.3 28.2   332.5 2.7 0.9
4) 18.7 22.7 21.6 25.6 Romo, Tony DAL 17 NYG SNF A COOL FT 17.0 17.8 18.6 20.9   278.2 2.1 0.6
5) 18.6 22.6 21.5 25.5 Fitzpatrick, Ryan (+) BUF  17 NE 1 A COOL FT 10.8 15.3 13.6 14.0   235.0 1.5 1.3
6) 18.4 22.4 21.5 25.5 Manning, Eli (--) NYG 17 DAL SNF H COOL FT 15.6 14.6 16.9 16.3   305.8 1.7 1.1
7) 17.6 21.6 20.6 24.6 Palmer, Carson (+) OAK 17 SD 4 H WARM G 13.4 14.1 13.3 12.5   274.6 1.3 1.8
8) 17.1 20.5 19.8 23.2 Stafford, Matthew (+) DET 17 GB 1 A COOL G 12.3 19.4 20.2 21.1   301.2 2.4 0.9
9) 16.3 19.9 18.9 22.5 Orton, Kyle (--) KC 17 DEN 4 A COOL G 14.0 16.0 12.1 11.8   242.8 1.4 1.4
10) 15.6 18.6 18.2 21.2 Flynn, Matt GB 17 DET 1 H COOL G X 14.2 0.0 0.0   0.0 0.0 0.0
11) 15.2 18.6 17.8 21.2 Rivers, Philip SD 17 OAK 4 A WARM G 17.4 17.9 15.4 16.3   287.6 1.6 1.3
12) 15.1 18.1 17.5 20.5 Ryan, Matt ATL 17 TB 4 H DOME MoT 14.1 15.4 17.4 20.6   271.4 1.8 0.8
13) 15.0 18.0 17.4 20.4 Sanchez, Mark NYJ 17 MIA 1 A WARM G 9.0 12.4 15.1 16.4   217.8 1.6 1.0
14) 15.0 17.0 16.8 18.8 Webb, Joe (--) MIN 17 CHI 1 H DOME G X 9.3 43.3 43.3   176.0 3.0 0.0
15) 14.8 17.8 17.2 20.2 Stanzi, Ricky KC 17 DEN 4 A COOL G X X 0.0 0.0   0.0 0.0 0.0
16) 14.7 17.7 17.1 20.1 Ponder, Christian (+) MIN 17 CHI 1 H DOME G X X 14.0 14.9   214.7 1.5 1.4
17) 14.4 17.6 16.9 20.1 Grossman, Rex WAS 17 PHI 1 A OK G 7.5 10.7 11.7 11.6   251.5 1.3 1.7
18) 14.2 17.0 16.6 19.4 Dalton, Andy CIN 17 BAL 4 H OK FT X X 13.2 10.8   218.3 1.4 0.9
19) 13.8 16.6 16.0 18.8 Rodgers, Aaron GB 17 DET 1 H COOL G 21.2 21.1 26.5 25.0   309.5 3.0 0.4
20) 13.7 16.7 15.9 18.9 Hill, Shaun (--) DET 17 GB 1 A COOL G 0.0 16.0 X X   0.0 0.0 0.0
21) 13.6 16.0 16.0 18.4 Vick, Michael (+) PHI 17 WAS 1 H OK G X 26.8 18.4 18.0   258.1 1.3 1.1
22) 13.2 15.6 15.3 17.7 Hasselbeck, Matt TEN 17 HOU 1 A WARM G 12.1 11.8 12.6 8.1   242.5 1.2 1.0
23) 12.8 14.8 14.2 16.2 Tebow, Tim DEN 17 KC 4 H OK G X 14.2 18.6 17.2   159.0 1.1 0.6
24) 12.7 15.7 14.9 17.9 Young, Vince (--) PHI 17 WAS 1 H OK G 14.9 11.8 14.1 14.8   288.7 1.3 2.7
25) 12.6 15.0 14.9 17.3 Flacco, Joe BAL 17 CIN 4 A OK FT 13.9 15.0 12.9 11.7   232.0 1.3 0.8
26) 12.5 14.7 14.9 17.1 Freeman, Josh TB 17 ATL 4 A DOME FT 10.3 15.9 13.5 11.9   237.0 1.0 1.4
27) 12.5 14.9 14.7 17.1 Kolb, Kevin ARI 17 SEA 4 H DOME G 0.0 13.2 12.3 16.0   244.4 1.1 1.0
28) 12.0 14.2 14.2 16.4 Orlovsky, Dan IND 17 JAC 1 A WARM G X X 10.5 11.6   196.0 1.1 0.4
29) 11.9 13.9 14.0 16.0 Roethlisberger, Ben PIT 17 CLE 1 A COOL G 17.6 17.3 14.8 12.0   275.4 1.5 1.0
30) 11.8 14.8 14.1 17.1 Skelton, John ARI 17 SEA 4 H DOME G X 8.2 13.6 13.0   252.6 1.5 2.0
31) 11.4 13.6 13.5 15.7 Gabbert, Blaine JAC 17 IND 1 H WARM G X X 8.2 8.9   163.2 0.8 0.8
32) 11.4 13.4 13.3 15.3 Smith, Alex SF 17 STL 1 A DOME FT 13.9 12.0 12.7 10.7   195.4 1.1 0.3
33) 11.4 13.4 13.5 15.5 Jackson, Tavaris SEA 17 ARI 4 A DOME G X 7.6 11.2 10.9   216.5 1.0 0.9
34) 11.3 13.3 13.4 15.4 McCown, Josh CHI 17 MIN 1 A DOME MoT X X 2.1 2.1   10.9 0.0 0.9
35) 11.1 13.1 13.2 15.2 Yates, T.J. HOU 17 TEN 1 H WARM G X X 9.3 9.3   200.4 0.7 0.7
36) 10.7 12.3 12.7 14.3 Wallace, Seneca CLE 17 PIT 1 H COOL G X 10.2 11.0 11.0   193.0 1.0 0.5
37) 10.1 12.5 12.4 14.8 Moore, Matt MIA 17 NYJ 1 H WARM G 13.2 6.3 12.1 15.7   206.5 1.3 0.6
38) 9.9 11.9 11.8 13.8 McCoy, Colt CLE 17 PIT 1 H COOL G X 11.5 12.0 9.5   202.5 1.1 0.8
39) 8.9 10.3 10.5 11.9 Clemens, Kellen STL 17 SF 1 H DOME FT X X 9.4 9.4   160.0 0.5 0.0
40) 8.7 10.3 10.4 12.0 Batch, Charlie PIT 17 CLE 1 A COOL G X 9.2 6.3 6.3   208.0 0.0 1.0

 

WEEK-17 PREDICTIONS BASED ON THE CURRENT DATA:

 

UPSIDE SURPRISE: Joe Webb vs. CHI (if starting...)

We are not believers in Joe Webb from a computer scouting standpoint, in terms of a long-term NFL QB. We do recognize that he has put up some great stats in relief this season. Webb's run-first, improvisational style can work when other teams haven't had a chance to game plan for it...or if the other team has little motivation.

The Bears season has been a crash & burn the last few weeks, and will mercifully end at Minnesota. We would take Webb this week...playing for his future, versus an unmotivated team, on the fast track in the dome.

 


 

LOW SCORE SURPRISE: Matt Moore vs. NYJ

Moore has been very capable in relief of Chad Henne this season. In the last 8 weeks, Moore has thrown 14 TD/3 INTs, while posting a respectable 15.6 Fantasy Football PPG (4 pts per TD) in that same span. We're not totally trusting this spike in output, and Moore faces his toughest (perhaps angriest) pass-defense of the year. The last time Moore faced the NYJ-D, he threw 0 TD/2 INT...on his way to a 4.2 FF point game. We'll go with a motivated NYJ-D (which hasn't been a great bet of late), and against Moore.



 

QB THAT COULD COME OUT OF NOWHERE: Ricky Stanzi vs. DEN (if he starts, or plays 3/4ths...)

There is little reason to run Kyle Orton out there as the starting QB this week...from an organizational standpoint. Orton will not be the Chiefs QB in 2012, and the Chiefs owe Orton nothing to make a wonderful storyline about him beating his old team. If Orton were to get seriously hurt, it could jeopardize his free-agent standing...and thus the Chiefs compensation for him. Do we also think the Chiefs would want bitter-rival OAK to win the division...if we were picking crazy rationales for this game?

The Chiefs need to find out what they have in Stanzi heading into 2012...and we got a peak of what they thought about Stanzi when Todd Haley was bounced for keeping Tyler Palko in so long. Stanzi immediately elevated to 2nd on the depth chart, post-Haley. Stanzi would face a defense that has shown to be often flimsy against the pass (Ponder threw for 381 yards in Week-13, Brady 320 in Week-15), especially given the defensive injuries. Perhaps this will be step one in the Stanzi ascension to greatness (so says our computer scouting analysis).

 

 

Copyright Fantasy Football Metrics LLC (FFM). All content or screens from this website may not be copied, archived, or captured in any way aside from normal browser caching.  If you would like to re-print our articles, interview R.C Fischer or anyone else from FFM, please email us at contentcomment@fantasyfootballmetrics.com