FANTASY FOOTBALL PROJECTIONS : Weekly Defense Sit and Start

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Defense 2013 Sit and Start Weekly Projections

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2013 FANTASY FOOTBALL Weekly Projections; Sits and Starts

 

 

PLAYOFF WEEK -- TEAM-DEFENSE Scoring Projections           Click Here for More Sit and Start Suggestions

The Defensive Fantasy PPG comparisons are Defensive-related scoring only, does not include Kick/Punt Return scoring -- to establish the true Fantasy Football Defensive performance.

The Team-Defense PPG listed for prior years does NOT include Week-17 games

Scoring system notes = Tiered for points allowed (10 pts = for a shutout, and declining from there), 2 pts per INT, 1 pt per Sack and Fumble recovery

"Offensive Points Allowed" = non-Defensive or kick/punt return points allowed

Prior Year PPG based upon Weeks 1-16, no Week-17

Anything that we change during the week, we will note with a symbol ("+" = change up since prior projection, "--" = down since last projection)

NOTE: The projections below will vary a bit from the FFM projections within Advanced Spots Logic's "The Machine." We are using a beta-testing variation of our formulas here on the free projections page. Our defensive beta-testing may have an occasional 2-3 point differentials versus our established system. If you want to purchase "The Machine" for your projections and trade analysis, we encourage it-- and ask that you click-through the ad banner at the bottom of our home page for "The Machine."

PLAYER NOTES BELOW PROJECTIONS TABLE...

WED 9-4-13  7:20pm ET  Update

 
RankWeekly Over-Under Team-DefenseWkOPPTime H/AWthrSurfaceFF PPG 2013 FF PPG 2012Off Pts allowed YTD Sacks per G YTDINT + Fum Rec YTD
1) 14.9 HOU1SD MNFAWARM G0.0 8.7 0.00.0 0.0
2) 14.7 SEA1CAR 1AWARM G0.0 9.5 0.00.0 0.0
3) 13.9 TB (+)1NYJ 1AWARM FT0.0 5.9 0.00.0 0.0
4) 13.5 IND1OAK 1HDOME FT0.0 5.7 0.00.0 0.0
5) 12.0 STL (+)1ARI 4HWARM FT0.0 9.0 0.00.0 0.0
6) 10.9 CIN (--)1CHI 1AWARM G0.0 8.2 0.00.0 0.0
7) 10.5 NE1BUF 1AWARM FT0.0 8.1 0.00.0 0.0
8) 9.2 PIT1TEN 1HWARM G0.0 5.8 0.00.0 0.0
9) 8.1 CLE1MIA 1HWARM G0.0 6.8 0.00.0 0.0
10) 7.9 SF1GB 4HWARM G0.0 8.7 0.00.0 0.0
11) 7.5 WAS1PHI MNFHWARM G0.0 7.2 0.00.0 0.0
12) 7.4 MIA1CLE 1AWARM G0.0 6.3 0.00.0 0.0
13) 7.2 ARI1STL 4ADOME FT0.0 8.5 0.00.0 0.0
14) 7.0 MIN1DET 1ADOME FT0.0 7.0 0.00.0 0.0
15) 6.8 KC1JAC 1AWARM G0.0 3.7 0.00.0 0.0
16) 6.8 DET1MIN 1HDOME FT0.0 4.1 0.00.0 0.0
17) 6.7 CHI1CIN 1HWARM G0.0 13.0 0.00.0 0.0
18) 6.4 NYJ (--)1TB 1HWARM FT0.0 6.3 0.00.0 0.0
19) 6.0 DEN (--)1BAL THUHWARM G0.0 9.9 0.00.0 0.0
20) 5.9 NYG1DAL SNFAWARM ST0.0 7.3 0.00.0 0.0
21) 5.8 TEN1PIT 1AWARM G0.0 5.1 0.00.0 0.0
22) 5.3 GB1SF 4AWARM G0.0 7.6 0.00.0 0.0
23) 5.2 JAC1KC 1HWARM G0.0 3.2 0.00.0 0.0
24) 4.5 NO1ATL 1HDOME FT0.0 5.9 0.00.0 0.0
25) 4.4 ATL1NO 1ADOME FT0.0 7.9 0.00.0 0.0
26) 4.4 DAL1NYG SNFHWARM ST0.0 5.3 0.00.0 0.0
27) 3.7 BAL1DEN THUAWARM G0.0 6.3 0.00.0 0.0
28) 3.1 SD1HOU MNFHWARM G0.0 8.7 0.00.0 0.0
29) 3.0 PHI1WAS MNFAWARM G0.0 3.4 0.00.0 0.0
30) 2.8 CAR1SEA 1HWARM G0.0 6.9 0.00.0 0.0
31) 2.5 BUF1NE 1HWARM FT0.0 3.6 0.00.0 0.0
32) -0.2 OAK1IND 1ADOME FT0.0 3.0 0.00.0 0.0

 

*Every Regular Season game analyzed and discussed from a Fantasy perspective all season -- click the "Game Recaps" section off of our home page to see game scouting notes you will not find anywhere else.*

 

MAJOR UPSIDE:  Colts-Defense vs. OAK

There is the obvious here: The Raiders have the worst (non-Geno Smith led) offense in the NFL. Whether it is Matt Flynn or Terrelle Pryor, there will be high pick-six potential. Most all will agree this is a "good" play (they are a consensus #12-15 ranking for most to start).

The non-obvious is that the Colts-Defense is much better than given credit for...and especially FF-nice when facing bad QBs/offenses. Last season, from Week's 7-16, the Colts faced CLE-TEN-MIA-JAC-BUF-TEN-KC (which is also why they made the playoffs). In those seven favorable matchups, the Colts-Defense allowed only 14.1 offensive PPG, scoring 9.7 FF PPG. They got better as the season went on--from Weeks 10-16 facing that low-end group, they had a defensive TD in three of 4 games.

This game is at Indy, in the dome; against a jacked up crowd...this is going to be a blowout of epic proportion. The pick-six potential is excellent.

 

LOW SCORE SURPRISE: Bears-Defense vs. CIN

This is either going to be a great call (all year), or a tremendous humiliation for us (not the first time). We just do not believe it is statistically possible for the Bears to have the kind of FF-defense that they had last season--it's mathematically and existentially improbable. Their 2012 dominance still weighs delightfully heavy on all of our souls.

Keep in mind, in 2012, most all of Chicago's defensive amazement happened in the first half of the season. From Weeks 10-15, the Bears did not score a D-TD, and averaged 5.5 FF PPG. The Bears smoked a hapless Arizona 9th-string QB in Week-16 to puff their numbers back up. All of the Bears' defensive TDs last year came against non-playoff teams/QBs. We think the Bengals will have one of the better offenses in the NFL this season, and that they will not yield gaudy FF juice to the Bears...the Bengals may actually smoke them in the opener.

 

 

DEFENSE THAT COULD COME OUT OF NOWHERE: Redskins-Defense vs. PHI

Michael Vick looks great in the preseason.

Michael Vick is a known "bad" NFL QB.

What if the Chip Kelly Offense does a belly flop, and/or Vick runs into the ground? Let's say the Redskins jump all over the struggling Eagles-D early, and Vick has to pass his way back into the game...it could a 3-4 pick game be coming, on the road, playing on MNF? The Redskins have a fairly talented defense with an offense that can control time of possession.

I wouldn't bet on this purposely, because none of us truly knows what the Eagles-2013 will bring us on offense; they might beat Washington by three TDs and be the toast of the town for a week. However, if I had to make a life-or-death call, I'd take the Washington controlling the game, and thus betting against Vick, if I had to bet on it.



 


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