*Ground rules, we only analyze Games 1-15 and exclude Game 16 of the season for obvious statistical reasons. We have fractional games played for some players as well, those injured before half time we consider as 0.5 games played as best we can track it.

This past Fantasy season the preseason WR projections didn't really work out as the preseason ratings outlets expected (big shock!). The old fashion thought process of taking last years scoring leaders, and/or highly marketed/visible WRs and making next years list...that doesn't really translate any more. Teams are evolving quickly, personnel is evolving quickly, coaches are evolving (and getting fired), schedule/opponent plays a huge part. The situations are fluid on injuries, trades, schedule, etc. If you had Austin Collie, Dwayne Bowe, Kenny Britt, Hakeem Nicks and Brandon Lloyd as your top-5 PPG WRs going into 2010, then congrats and this will research article will bore you (they were the top-5 on a PPG basis, some played less than a full season). For the rest, let's look back on preseason 2010 WRs as a prep and then dive into why Mike Wallace may be #1 for WRs in 2011.

A quick glimpse back at the Top 2010 preseason WRs:

Andre Johnson

Andre Johnson was everyone's slam dunk #1 WR for preseason 2010, a top 5-6 pick overall for many. He was an ESPN and Yahoo preseason #1. Andre Johnson was our #3 overall WR, which was essentially saying "we aren't taking him"...because no way he is around that late.

From the Fantasy Football Metrics 2010 Preseason Draft Guide: I can see Johnson's FF scoring dropping off slightly if Owen Daniels is able to come back from injury for season start (Johnson had 12.5 FF PPG/17.9 PPR in games with Daniels last year and 14.8 FF PPG/20.8 PPR while he was out). Johnson also has an away game with the Jets (Revis) looming on the schedule (scored 3.5 points vs. Revis last year). Johnson is as good as it gets at WR in the NFL, but I can see a small slip in FF scoring this season. I'm not in a position, as most are, of taking him in the first round at # 6 overall in the FF Draft. I could see 4-5 other WR's in his same scoring range.

We projected Johnson at 13.4 (traditional) PPG, he had 13.1 PPG...but missed some action due to injury. Five WR's averaged more PPG, and five more were right behind him. His preseason relative value was overinflated, and many wasted a 1st Round draft pick on him.

Randy Moss

Randy Moss was ESPN and Yahoo's #2 overall WR, wow....need anything else be said. I'm not doing a dance (per say) that we had him as the #5, but by having him at #5 we were one of the only 2010 preseason Moss detractors (of sorts). By having him not #1-3, none of our private clients (I can proudly say) had Randy Moss on their teams this season.

From the Fantasy Football Metrics 2010 Preseason Draft Guide: This is a tough call. Moss is 33 this season, his performance should start to slow a bit. He started to flake out again late last year. As Moss became disinterested, Brady seemed to be less interested in him as well -- his targets began to drop, no 100+ yard games in his last 7 games (a high 75 yards) of 2009. But he did keep snatching TD's (6 in last 7 games, including 3 in 1 game). Because of his size and TD prowess, you have to project him to score decently for FF. But an extremely tough schedule, and cold weather potential for 5-6 straight games -- and there is a lot to worry about with Moss. He will project to score OK, but for as high as he will go in the FF Draft -- I can’t invest in him with so much risk. There are other (seemingly) more secure options. If he falls in the FF Draft then I'm interested, but he's not falling in any FF Drafts.

We projected Moss at 11.8 (traditional PPG) , we tracked him at 4.8 PPG on the season.

Larry Fitzgerald

Larry Fitzgerald was ESPN's #3 WR, Yahoo's #8 and our #9. If you didn't see the drop-off without Warner coming, you were a fool.

From the Fantasy Football Metrics 2010 Preseason Draft Guide: Fitzgerald is arguably the best WR in the NFL. We have his FF scoring dropping on Matt Leinart (or whoever) as starting Cardinals QB. It's hard to project Fitzgerald higher in FF without Warner. Fitzgerald has scored 8.2 FF PPG (traditional scoring) in 11 games with Leinart over 4 seasons. Only 1 of those 11 games Fitzgerald has hit over 100 yards receiving. Leinart has targeted Fitzgerald approx at the same rate as Warner did, just less results. It's hard to turn down Fitzgerald, but for how high he will go in the FF Draft -- you have to pass on him for the Leinart risk, plus more secure top-of-draft options out there.

Noted in our 2010 draft guide -- without Warner pre-2010, Fitzgerald scored 8.2 FF PPG. What did he do this year without Warner.?..8.7 PPG.

Reggie Wayne

Reggie Wayne was the Yahoo #3, and the ESPN #4...and the Fantasy Football Metrics #13 (he would up #14 in PPG)

From the Fantasy Football Metrics 2010 Preseason Draft Guide: Reggie Wayne as the #2 overall WR, and a first round overall pick in many FF Drafts -- I do not get it. Wayne turns 32 this season, not dead by any means, but starting to hit potential slowdown/injury issue area. Wayne was awesome early in 2009, and then started to tail off as the season wore on -- and was very quiet in the playoffs. 15.1 traditional FF PPG/22.8 PPR in his first 9 games and dropping to 7.2 (trad) FF PPG/11.4 PPR. Why the drop? The Colts have an excellent stable of WR's selected in the NFL Draft the last few years. As the youngsters (Garcon, Collie) got more comfortable with the Offense, their scoring jumped and Wayne's dropped. Why would we not think that would continue to be the case? Especially as Anthony Gonzalez comes back from injury. I like Reggie Wayne but not as the # 2 overall WR. Not at all.

We projected Wayne at 10.2 (traditional) PPG, he finished at 10.0...again slowing down in the 2nd half.

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This is supposed to be about Mike Wallace, right? I wanted to do a recap of 2010 to lay down some credentials about projecting the Top Fantasy WRs for 2011. Certainly we are not perfect, but we have a pretty good track record for WRs. A quick recap of the hot WRs in the preseason, or the great actual PPG WRs for 2010 (Alphabetically):

Boldin, BAL = #14 ESPN, #13 Yahoo, #47 FFM....#38 in PPG (I remember the heat we took for this preseason, I think we came out on the right side of this debate).

Bowe, KC = #20 ESPN, #16 Yahoo, #27 FFM....#2 in PPG

Britt, TEN = #38 ESPN, #37 Yahoo, #24 FFM....# 3 in PPG (only 8 games played)

Collie, IND = #48 ESPN, #47 Yahoo, #51 FFM....#1 in PPG (only 7.5 games played)

C.Johnson, DET = #7 ESPN, #4 Yahoo, #1 FFM....#7 in PPG (was pushing for #1 for middle part of season, faded off with Drew Stanton)

D.Jackson, PHI = #9 ESPN, #9 Yahoo, #2 FFM....#11 in PPG (top 5 coming down the stretch, then 2 bad last games being hampered pushed him out of Top-10)

We are likely to see Andre Johnson or Calvin Johnson as most media's #1 WR for Fantasy 2011. This past year, Andre Johnson was every media outlet's 2010 preseason #1 WR on the board (we had him at #3 behind Calvin Johnson and DeSean Jackson). Nothing against Andre or Calvin Johnson for 2011, but Mike Wallace may be getting ready to make a move to the top of the board (Preseason 2010 we had Wallace #16, ESPN had him #27, Yahoo at #29).

Wallace had a great Fantasy season in 2010. For total raw Fantasy points, in all 16 games, Wallace was the 6th best Fantasy WR (traditional FF scoring) for the 2010 season. In our PPG Metrics (we count only Games 1-15, and go by PPG avg), Wallace was the 11th best WR this season. It's a deeper look inside Mike Wallace's 2010 season that reveals this potential move to #1 in 2011. I would like to look at the case for Wallace as the #1 Fantasy WR on 3 main fronts:

1. Fantasy scoring metrics with and without Ben Roethlisberger
2. Fantasy scoring per target in 2010
3. Physical Metrics

1) Fantasy scoring metrics within 2010

Wallace finished 11th best in our PPG metrics among all WRs in 2010, but keep in mind how Wallace's 2010 season transpired. It began with his first 4 games, playing with Dennis Dixon, Charlie Batch and Byron Leftwich. In that "minus-Roethlisberger" span, Wallace averaged just 2.3 catches per game for 52.8 yards per game on 4.8 targets per game (which dragged his overall 2010 down). Everything changed when Roethlisberger came back, and then everything really changed after a few games working together again. Look at the differentials of Wallace's 2010 season in 3 phases:

1. Week 1-4 (Week 5 was a BYE), Wallace without Roethlisberger
2. Week 6-8, 3 games with Roethlisberger getting back "up to speed"
3. Week 9-16, the final 8 Fantasy games of 2010 (no Week-17/Game 16)

To put into perspective the differences within Wallace's 2010 season....as stated prior Wallace finished 11th best among WRs in PPG Week 1-16, but look at where he ranks when comparing WR scoring for the last 8 Fantasy games of 2010 (Week 9-16). The Top-5 Fantasy (traditional scoring) WR's in PPG over the last 8 games (Week 9-16) of the 2010 Fantasy Season were:

1. 16.0 = Jennings, GB
2. 16.0 = Bowe, KC
3. 13.7 = Wallace, PIT
4. 13.3 = A.Johnson, HOU
5. 13.0 = D.Jackson, PHI

When Roethlisberger and Wallace got going, Wallace's production was at a Fantasy "elite" level for WRs.

 

2) Fantasy scoring per target in 2010

Wallace may have been the 11th best Fantasy PPG WR in 2010, but he was 20th among the Top-20 WRs in targets per game at 6.3. In fact, Wallace was just 43rd overall in targets per game among WRs in our tracking system. Jerricho Cotchery (6.6) had more targets per game than Wallace this season. On one hand that is scary underutilization, on the other hand it may reveal a massive upside as Wallace gets "more action" in 2011. Looking back at the chart above, Wallace's Week 9-16 targets moved up to a more proper 7.6 per game, still shy of the other elites that see 8-10 per game consistently. When Wallace's targets moved higher, so did his Fantasy production.

The amazing thing about Wallace's 2010 is despite the lower targeting overall, his Fantasy scoring stayed high. Showing a glimpse into what is possible with Wallace when you get him the ball. To show the power of Wallace's ability to make use of his targets, here are the leaders in Fantasy points (traditional) per target for Week 1-16 (how many FF points on average did the WR score for every time the QB threw the ball his way, whether caught or not):

1. 1.96 points per passing target = D.Jackson, PHI (6.4 targets per game)
2. 1.84 = Wallace, PIT (6.3 targets per game)
3. 1.82 = Britt, TEN (7.3 targets per game)
4. 1.53 = Manningham, NYG (5.7 targets per game)
5. 1.50 = Floyd, SD (6.8 targets per game)

The Steelers barely involved their potential "fastest elite WR in football" in the running game (toward the final games of the season, Wallace was starting to pick up rushing carries...barely). Adjust Fantasy points per target to take out rushing stats, and the top 2010 WR producers per target (for just passing game only) would look like this:

1. 1.82 = Britt, TEN
2. 1.80 = Wallace, PIT
3. 1.77 = D.Jackson, PHI
4. 1.53 = Manningham, NYG
5. 1.50 = Floyd, SD

 

3) Physical Metrics

My favorite part of the analysis, because it is what led me to rating Wallace high in the first place for 2010. I'm going to throw a bunch of comparisons at your first, then tie it all together. The following are Top-10 lists from the last decade of WR data from the NFL Combine (remember, a few prospects do not fully participate in the Combine dashes, typically those are players with something to hide/they are slower than most realize...in my opinion):. If you are fast, you want to show it off at the NFL combine.

Fastest 40-yard dash in the last decade for WRs:

1. 4.21 = (2010) Trindon Holliday, LSU (Texans KR, blew out knee)
2. 4.22 = (2010) Jacoby Ford, Clemson (nice season for Oakland in the 2nd half)
3. 4.25 = (2009) Darrius Heyward-Bey, Maryland (we'll get to the trouble here that you already know)
4. 4.26 = (2005) Jerome Mathis, Hampton (nice KR in NFL for awhile)
5. 4.28 = (2009) Mike Wallace, Ole Miss
6. 4.29 = (2009) Johnny Knox, Abilene Christian (Bears #1 WR?)
7. 4.30 = (2009) Mike Thomas, Arizona (started to break out w/ Jacksonville this year)
8. 4.30 = (2007) Yamon Figurs, K-State
9. 4.31 = 4 with including (2001) Santana Moss, U.Miami (excellent pro career), Deon Butler (SEA), Tiquan Underwood (JAC)

Fastest 20-yard dash in the last decade for WRs:

1. 2.44 = (2010) Jacoby Ford, Clemson
2. 2.45 = (2009) Mike Wallace, Ole Miss
3. 2.46 = (2010) Emmanuel Sanders, SMU (now on Steelers as well)
4. 2.46 = (2007) Aundrae Allison, East Carolina
5. 2.47 = (2010) Trindon Holiday, LSU
6. 2.49 = (2007) Robert Meachem, Tennessee
7. 2.49 = (2007) Yamon Figurs, K-State
8. 2.49 = (2005) Jerome Mathis, Hampton
9. 2.50 = 11 with, including Dexter McCluster, Golden Tate, Laurent Robinson, Jason Hill, Deon Butler, Mike Thomas, Darrius Heyward-Bey

Fastest 10-yard dash in the last decade for WRs:

1. 1.43 = (2009) Mike Wallace, Ole Miss
2. 1.43 = (2008) Will Franklin, Missouri
3. 1.43 = (2007) Aundrae Allison, East Carolina
4. 1.44 = (2009) Darrius Heyward-Bey, Maryland
5. 1.44 = (2009) Mike Thomas, Arizona
6. 1.46 = (2007) Steve Smith, USC (NY Giants)
7. 1.46 = (2008) Eddie Royal, Va Tech
8. 1.46 = (2009) Kenny McKinley, South Carolina
9. 1.46 = (200&) Laurent Robinson, Illinois State
10. 1.46 = (2010) Jacoby Ford, Clemson

A lot of names, some known...others kinda sorta known. Some NFL productive, others not as productive. What do you see in common when you look through the names on this list?

For one, only a handful of players cover all the top speed scores. With Mike Wallace at the top of almost every list. Wallace, Jacoby Ford, and Darrius Heyward-Bey are the only ones who are on all lists. In a league of elite players, these 3 have beyond exceptional speed. A gift/attribute above all others.

Secondly, when you look at all the names...you may think "wow, look at all the kick returners"! Another evidence of the speed levels Wallace, Ford and Heyward-Bey possess. It's the "look at all these kick returners" thought process where I realized the differences in superior speed. When looking at the list, what would separate Wallace from the rest...given everyone on here is "fast"? Anything jump out?

When you think of kick returners, you would think small, quick, frail, not a "real" WR. The reason we think that of kick returner types is -- because it's true. One of the attributes of the "highly speedy" WR...small in height, lower weight and thus thin of frame (too small to be an effective NFL WR typically). Another evidence of what a "freak" Wallace is, is the fact that he has this elite speed, but he is not "small". Of any of the names listed above among the fastest speed times, the only ones who are 6'0 and taller and are also 200+ pounds are:

1. 6'2, 214 = Robert Meachem
2. 6'2, 210 = Darrius Heyward-Bey
3. 6'2, 201 = Laurent Robinson
4. 6'1, 215 = Will Franklin
5. 6'1, 200 = Mike Wallace

Not only is Wallace statistically the fastest (10, 20, 40 yard dash) above 6'0 and 200+ pound WR, he can jump higher than any of them. The Vertical Jump metrics from the NFL Combine:

1. 40.0" = Mike Wallace
2. 39.0"= Laurent Robinson
3. 38.5" = Darrius Heyward-Bey
4. 37.5" = Robert Meachem
5. 34.5" = Will Franklin

Wallace has produced good numbers quickly in the NFL, as of late borderline exceptional numbers. His amazing physical gifts are going to allow Wallace to produce things other WRs will simply not be able to.

 

A couple additional points of comparison on Mike Wallace:

Mike Wallace vs. DeSean Jackson

I have compared Wallace to DeSean Jackson all season, and only to say Wallace is the better version of Jackson. Wallace is a physical freak, a combination of speed, leaping ability and size that just isn't "normal" for the NFL. While people often fall all over themselves for DeSean Jackson, thinking Jackson is the ultimate speed WR...I would maintain that Wallace is.

The difference between the two has been -- the way Wallace is (under) used. Jackson gets glory running the ball, returning punts...and even outside of that Jackson has been targeted in the passing game more for most of the past 2 years. But, not in the 2nd half of 2010 (Week 9-16)

If you were willing to have DeSean Jackson rated high for 2010, and/or would for 2011...consider that Mike Wallace may be better in every way over Jackson, as well playing with a better passing QB.

 

Wallace vs. "tougher" Defenses/CB's

Another amazing data point on Wallace is -- he was immune to top defenses in 2010. Typically a top notch defense and/or "shut down" CB will drastically reduce an elite WR's Fantasy stats in a singular game. You don't have to bench Wallace when he faces the Jets, Raiders (Asomungha), Broncos (Bailey) or Ravens for example.

While Darrelle Revis totally shuts down elite WR's such as Andre Johnson, Reggie Wayne, etc, Wallace had :

• 7 catches for 102 yards against the Jets a few weeks ago
• 5 catches for 76 yards against the Ravens (Week-13, in the cold)
• a Week-10 matchup vs. New England produced 8 catches for 136 yards and 2 TDs.
• A total of five 100+ yards games the span of Week 9-16, against mostly good defenses/CBs.

 

Summary

Now imagine a 2011 season of Wallace with a full season integration with Ben Roethlisberger; and involved in more running plays!

Let's use those last 8 games of 2010 (Week 9-16) with an additional 10% bump in targets and 2010 DeSean Jackson type rushing totals (109 yards and 1 TD). A full season for Wallace based on that might look like:

• 93.5 catches (5.5 per game)
• 1,765 yards (103.8 per game)
• 11 receiving TDs
• 109 rushing yards
• 1 rushing TD
• 2 fumbles lost
• 15.0 Traditional FF PPG
• 20.5 PPR PPG

If Wallace gets to 15.0 traditional PPG in 2011, if he's not the #1 Fantasy scoring WR...he would still be great and very close to #1. This years WR leader in traditional PPG Fantasy scoring on our board (Week 1-16) was Austin Collie at 13.6 (Collie had 7.5 games played for our metrics, Dwayne Bowe at 13.3 was 2nd overall and played all of the first 15 games).

Wallace is one of the WR's that may transcend all of the normal patterns for a Fantasy/NFL WR. Possibly the fastest WR of all-time. A WR that is essentially too fast to be covered close to the line of scrimmage -- and thus forces a DB to have a buffer of space, so that when the Steelers just gun a quick pass to him on this soft coverage...he essentially becomes a very dangerous RB of sorts. Play him up tight and he is going to blow by you deep. Wallace is virtually "uncoverable" for a defense.

Wallace has the benefit of being paired with Ben Roethlisberger, one of the 3-5 best QBs in the NFL. In 2011, he could have Ben all season to work with...including the offseason. The pairing can only improve with more time.

If Wallace's targets just continued in 2011 at the level they did in Week 9-16 this 2010 season, Wallace would be a lock Top-5 Fantasy WR projected scorer in 2011. With a small increase in targets and a couple more handoffs, the increased touches could then lead Wallace could be the top scoring Fantasy WR of them all in 2011.

My (early) Top-5 WRs for Fantasy 2011:

1. Hakeem Nicks, NYG
2. Mike Wallace, PIT
3. Andre Johnson, HOU
4. Vincent Jackson, SD
5. Calvin Johnson, DET

 

 

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