No doubt you have seen the
commercials for the Holiday Inn Express where an "everyday Joe" does some
amazing act with the punch line that they weren’t actually a doctor, or
a marine biologist (maybe that was Seinfeld), etc – but that they “did stay
in a Holiday Inn Express last night”.
Have you seen their commercial
where an undersized guy who plays QB at Kent State is shocked to learn
that he was drafted in the last round of the NFL Draft,? He is then given just a
couple of months to figure out how to become a NFL WR although he has never
played the position. Soon he is thrown into the second game of his rookie season (due
to the starter’s injury) against the toughest Defense in the NFL – and puts up
numbers similar to the Pro Bowl WR he replaced? It wasn’t a commercial, it
was real life.
I consistently see Fantasy
Football GM’s taking Wes Welker early in
Fantasy Football Drafts and feeling
confident that, “he
will be back just fine” (suddenly, ACL specialists I guess. They also say “Brady loves
him, they have a connection”. Really? It is amazing what we are convinced of;
when the numbers can tell a quite different, hidden story.
There were 4 games last season in
which Julian Edelman played mostly/all of a full game with Welker out injured.
If we were to only compare Edelman’s overall Fantasy Football scoring averages
versus Welker’s in 2009, we might not even recognize Edelman in the discussion.
However, if we compare Edelman’s 4 games that he played filling in for Welker versus Welker’s
2009 stats, we might get a totally different picture.
|
FF PPG (T) |
FF PPG (PPR) |
Pats WR |
Rec Per game |
Yds Per game |
TD per game |
Targets Per game |
|
12.4 |
21.8 |
Welker |
9.4 |
102.8 |
0.31 |
12.3 |
|
9.8 |
16.0 |
Edelman (4G) |
6.3 |
66.3 |
0.50 |
11.0 |
One thing about the 4 games above
for Edelman is his 2nd game played vs. Atlanta (Week 3), he didn’t
play as much. But, the 3 games Edelman did play more major time (16, 15, and 8
targets in those 3 games) -- he was targeted just as much (actually higher) than
Welker per game average. As well, Edelman had Fantasy scoring at nearly/exactly
the same pace as Welker in those 3 games. Did I mention MORE targets per game?
|
FF PPG (T) |
FF PPG (PPR) |
Pats WR |
Rec Per game |
Yds Per game |
TD per game |
Targets Per game |
|
12.4 |
21.8 |
Welker |
9.4 |
102.8 |
0.31 |
12.3 |
|
12.2 |
20.0 |
Edelman (3G) |
7.3 |
81.7 |
0.67 |
13.0 |
At this point you might have a growing fondness for Julian Edelman. That
really isn't my main point. But, you should respect him -- he will be the Wes
Welker for the Pats for the future...which may be now.
My main theory is -- how critical
is Wes Welker in the Patriots passing game? How much of a "bond" is there really
between Welker and Brady? We are conditioned to think there is this "transcendental"
Brady-Welker connection. We love the "scrapper" Wes Welker, the undrafted
"little engine that could". I admire and respect him too. But, how important to
the equation is Wes Welker if his replacement is a guy (Edelman) who has never
played WR in his life, and can go in against the NY Jets in Week 2 of his rookie
NFL season and be targeted 16 times, and make 8 catches for 98 yards? This mystical Brady-Welker
connection; how "mystical" is it if Edelman can jump right in and do nearly the
same exact thing?
Welker had season highs in targets from Brady of 17 (Week 1)
and 16 (Week 11). Only 27 times all last year
(512 games/opportunities) was a WR targeted 15+ times (according to our
database). Only 6 WR's had 15+ game targets to them twice (or more) in the 2009 season.
Julian Edelman gets thrown into the starting lineup Week 2 and gets...16
targets! The game Welker got hurt (Week 17), Edelman jumps in and has 15 targets. Is Wes
Welker special, or is getting 15+ targets from Tom Brady what makes anyone
special? How special is Welker-Brady, if immediately the same targets happen
with Edelman-Brady?
Which leads to the business case
here. If you were the Head Coach of the Patriots, and you had two players who
played the same position, both had shown to be able to perform at nearly equal
levels, both work hard, and both have great character -- how would you determine
playing time? Would you bench one and play the other exclusively, or would you
split time somehow? You would of likely split time between them in some manner. If Edelman cuts
into Welker's time by 10-20%, Welker's Fantasy Football ranking comes rocketing
down from it's lofty heights. If it becomes a 50/50 split, then both WR's become
virtually Flex starters at best...maybe. With this possibility, how can you take
Wes Welker so high in Fantasy Football Drafts, with so much to lose; and so many
other WR's to take at the higher draft positions?
How about the same scenario
above as Head Coach, but one of the guys has just come off a major ACL injury?
As a business person are you going to throw him back out there full throttle
Game 1, when you have a completely viable alternative available to you? If you
had two cars that were about equal age/miles/condition, yet one car recently had some
major operational issues repaired -- would you feel comfortable to take that
newly repaired car on a cross country trip right away? Don't you think Bill
Belichick would rather bring Welker back slowly, given that he has Edelman as an
option? Do you think Belichick will leave Welker in the entire game, even in
blowouts (as he has done before), or will he take Welker out earlier to protect him?
Julian Edelman is 3 inches
taller, 5-10 pounds bigger, has been timed faster in the 40-yard dash, timed to be
more agile in the 20-yard short shuttles (Pro Day workout comparisons), and has as good of hands as Welker (Welker caught 75% of his targets, Edelman 70%).
What about these facts would lead you to believe that Wes Welker is so much
better than Julian Edelman? I would make the argument that Edelman is the better
prospect than Welker. All anyone else can argue is Welker has more "heart", and
I can't measure that...nor do I believe it.
Do you think Bill Belichick is
stupid? Does he have a track record of becoming attached to players and favoring
them beyond their prime, or has he been a more "cold-blooded" player personnel guy
who will cut or trade you when the value is right? Remember how awesome Deion
Branch was as a Pats WR, and how everyone said it was crazy to trade him...how'd
that workout? Do you think he will just go back to Wes Welker exclusively out of
loyalty if Julian Edelman is just as viable (or better)?
Gordon Gekko, said in the movie
Wall Street, "never get emotional about a stock". The same is true in
everything, including Fantasy Football. Bill Belichick doesn't get emotional,
Gordon Gekko doesn't get emotional. Will you, when it comes to Wes Welker?
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