I have been spending my spring and summer watching tape back of 2009 NFL games, re-looking and trying to confirm; “things I think I know”. Many times the “things I think I know”, when I look at the numbers in more detail and combine it with re-watching games with a single focus; I find out – “I don’t know, what I thought I knew”. Which is my whole passion for being a part of this website launch.

Often we listen to the “talking heads” on ESPN, or the local radio show, or a two sentence blurb on a Fantasy Football website; and then that’s our new reality. It’s happened to all of us. Not to dismiss all media as “not valuable”. But, sometimes the conventional wisdom is formed by a “group-think hype” and no one really looks at the detail (until it’s too late). Enough on the “soap box”, let’s bring this around to Hakeem Nicks and Michael Crabtree.

Michael Crabtree, at one time, was supposed to be the # 1 pick in the NFL Draft. Eventually he was a (supposed) “steal” at NFL Draft pick # 10 to San Fran, they “couldn’t pass him up”. He had eye-popping numbers at Texas Tech, and an amazing game on National TV against Texas. Some people drafted him for Fantasy Football last season even though he hadn’t signed a contract (and ultimately didn’t for weeks into the season). Once he did sign, out everyone rushed to pick him up for their Fantasy Football team.

Hakeem Nicks, barely anyone one knew who he was in college (UNC). His college team didn’t throw much, or play much as much on National TV -- as opposed to Texas Tech who threw all the time and was battling for a National Championship with many televised games during the run. You may have seen Nicks’ amazing catch in the 2008 Mieneke Bowl against West Virginia, and probably forgot his name soon after (if you haven’t seen it go online and find it, and he was amazing beyond just that one catch). Nicks was a projected 2nd-3rd Round pick that ended up jumping up to late First Round at # 30 with the Giants. Not as many selected him (compared to Crabtree) in the 2009 Fantasy Football Draft, but many picked him up soon after -- for fairly decent production in fantasy football 2009.

Nicks had some eye-popping moments at times in 2009. Crabtree was quite mediocre in 2009. Yet, the media was all excited about Crabtree’s amazing skills to jump right in with the 49ers and play. Nicks made the media yawn for the most part. Now flash forward to preseason 2010, and I see Crabtree consistently ranked ahead of Nicks in the preseason rankings. I see much of the media (TV, preseason mags, websites) attention on how good Crabtree can be. Not much discussion on Nicks.

As I have been re-watching 2009 games, I have to say Hakeem Nicks is every bit as good as Michael Crabtree. I would go one step further and say Nicks is better than Crabtree (to me hands down better). At minimum, they are both good. But Crabtree gets a lot more media “love” then Nicks; and also a lot more Fantasy Football love -- and that’s where the opportunity for 2010 comes into play.

How did this even happen, why is Crabtree so lauded as “awesome” out of college -- and Nicks, no one hardly cared?

Let’s roll back to their final season of college in 2008:

’08 College Final Stats	Crabtree	H.Nicks
Receptions	97	68
Yards	1,165	1,222
TD’s	19	12
Games	13	13

A quick look at that list, and you would agree both had great seasons – but Crabtree was certainly better, or was he? Keep in mind Texas Tech threw the ball a lot. How much more? Compare each teams starting QB’s pass attempts for 2008, Texas Tech’s QB had 626 pass attempts and UNC’s QB just 320. Texas Tech threw the ball almost 50% more than UNC. In other words (theoretically), Crabtree had nearly double the chances Nicks did. Texas Tech did spread the ball around by design, but that also led to Defenses really not being able to focus all attention on Crabtree. If you look at their college seasons by percentage, maybe Nicks was better (or more valuable) than Crabtree?

A comparison of Crabtree and Nicks’ 2009 college stats, as a percentage of their starting QB’s total stats:

Comparison of ‘08 College Season, as a % of starting QB totals	Crabtree	H.Nicks
% of Crabtree/Nicks receptions of their QB’s passes thrown	15.5%	21.3%
% of Crabtree/Nicks receptions of their QB’s completed passes	21.9%	37.4%
% of Crabtree/Nicks Rec Yds, to their QB’s Total Pass Yds	22.8%	47.3%
% of Crabtree/Nicks TD’s, to their QB’s Total Passing TD’s	42.2%	57.1%

Looking at their performances by percentages or by “share” of the activity (market share in a sense…), Nicks was much more “valuable” then Crabtree in their final college season. Over half of the UNC QB’s passing TD’s went to Hakeem Nicks. Close to half the UNC QB’s passing yardage went to Nicks, and over one-third of the UNC QB’s passing attempts were also caught by Nicks. Barely over 20% of the Texas Tech QB’s pass attempts were caught by Crabtree (one of the lowest among the top WR in the 2009 NFL Draft). A few had suspected, but not many mentioned the obvious – Michael Crabtree is more a product of his environment. Not that he isn’t a very good WR, but is he so much better than Hakeem Nicks? Is Crabtree maybe not even as good as Hakeem Nicks?

2009 NFL Draft 1st Round Draft pick WR’s ‘08 College Receiving Yards, as a percentage of their starting QB’s Total Pass Yards:

% of QB’s Yards	WR
47.3%	Nicks, UNC
40.1%	Britt, Rutgers
29.1%	Maclin, Missouri
24.2%	Heyward-Bey, Maryland
22.8%	Crabtree, Texas Tech

2009 NFL Draft 1st Round WR’s ’08 College receptions, as a percentage of their starting QB’s Total Completed Passes:

% of QB’s completions	WR
37.4%	Nicks, UNC
35.8%	Britt, Rutgers
26.5%	Maclin, Missouri
21.9%	Crabtree, Texas Tech
19.6%	Heyward-Bey, Maryland

 

The 2008 Regular Season ends, onto the Bowl games – the final game showcase before the NFL Draft.

Crabtree vs. Ole Miss in the Cotton Bowl – 4 catches, 30 yards, and 1 TD.

I watched almost every play of this game. I remember thinking “Michael Crabtree is not as good as people think/what I have been “pumped” by the media”. Once he faced a physical SEC defense, he got thrown around. Poked in the eye, and hurt his ankle in the game – I saw more frustration then injury. Once Ole Miss pushed him around, he looked like he shut it down/quit.

Nicks vs. West Virginia in the Mieneke Bowl – 8 catches, 217 yards, 3 TD’s

Nicks best game of his career. I watched parts of that game and thought, “this is the best WR I have seen in college in awhile” – and duly noted it. Again, go back and watch the highlights on YouTube. It is virtually breathtaking.

So Nicks was the key cog in his college teams passing game in 2008, and had very nice regular season totals. Nicks then has one of the great showcase games of all time by a WR in bowl game. All that and then as we turn toward the NFL Combine, the talk is all about -- will Crabtree be a top 3 (or # 1) pick or not? Nicks is not in the top pick discussion, more mentioned as a “sleeper” for late First Round. Nicks’ great Bowl game labeled as a “fluke” or aberration of sorts.

On to the NFL Combine, Nicks shows off his great hands and runs a 4.49-4.51 40-yard dash. Crabtree flirted with running at the combine, then came up with a foot injury and skipped it. Probably for the best for him because – he’s is not that fast, more on that in a minute. Crabtree’s injury and elite Draft status dominated the news, but somewhat quietly Hakeem Nicks came in to the NFL Combine 10-15 pounds overweight and his Draft status took a hit….which I can see why his Draft status would take a hit -- but, pretty fast 40 times for being 10-15 pounds over!

Going into the actual 2009 NFL Draft, Hakeem Nicks is painted as an overweight slacker and Michael Crabtree is still debated as “should he be a top 3 pick”. Crabtree is running around to interviews like a diva (reportedly), he’s hanging around Deion Sanders and other interesting family and friend “advisors”; but Nicks is the questionable character one? Crabtree ultimately does “Diva out” by holding out half the season, for no real financial gain -- and taking a hit on personal reputation. But still, before the NFL Draft, the media keeps telling me how great Crabtree is and rarely a mention of Nicks. Mel Kiper has Crabtree projected to be taken at # 4 in January, and # 8 by Draft day. Nicks is not in Kiper’s First Round projection (he is mentioned at # 30 in McShay’s).

In my book, pre-NFL Draft, Nicks is the more impressive college WR statistically (at minimum just as impressive). Nicks is better physically – he is roughly the same exact size in height (one inch shorter) and in weight, but runs faster. Also the eyeball test, I would take Nicks in a fistfight over Crabtree. Crabtree has great hands, Nicks is every bit as good or better hands. To me Hakeem Nicks is the better NFL WR prospect, hands down.

We know Crabtree falls a bit on Draft Day, and is taken 10th overall in the 2009 NFL Draft. Nicks “surprises” a bit to move to first Round at # 30. Crabtree turns into a “Diva” and holds out. Nicks signs and reports to camp.

The 2009 NFL Season, let the numbers speak for themselves (Games 1-15):

2009 NFL Season (Games 1-15)	H.Nicks	Crabtree
Receptions per game	3.5	4.5
Targets per game	5.5	7.8
Catch% of Total Targets	63.9%	57.7%
Yards Per Game	61.2	56.7
Yards per catch	17.3	12.6
*College Yards per catch	18.0	12.0
TD’s per game	0.5	0.2
Red Zone targets per game	0.5	0.4
fantasy football scoring per game	8.9	6.9
100+ Yard Games	2	0

*I thought I’d put this in, college and NFL YPC result eerily similar…..

So exactly who is the better receiver again?

Crabtree gets much more targets, translating to more catches. However, Nicks tallies more yards with fewer receptions per game, and more TD’s per game with higher yards per catch -- and more Fantasy Football scoring per game. If Nicks were to get Crabtree’s target levels, he would blow Crabtree away. I think he will in 2010 (and beyond).

Why does Crabtree have such low yards per catch, and low % of catches of the passes targeted to him? I have re-watched 49ers and Giants 2009 games. Crabtree was thrown to quite a bit by Alex Smith; and he was often never “open” on those throws. The reason I think he wasn’t “open” – he is slow, slower than people have realized. Defenders have no difficulty covering him. He has great hands, so he will make catches. But just like in college, he doesn’t add many yards to his catches. He is like a “lumbering” tight end, of sorts.

Nicks, on the other hand, runs quickly and is physical with defenders. Often the Giants would have Nicks drop one step back on the snap and throw him a quick pass to allow him a one-on-one attempt to beat the covering DB (either run past, or physically bowl over). That doesn’t/won’t happen much/at all with Crabtree, which is a “sign”….

I am right now watching the first Giants-Eagles game in 2009 (Nicks first start) where Nicks missed a wide-open 80+ yard bomb, it just went right off his hands. A “bad” ESPN moment. Wide open and dropped it. Here is “the rest of the story” -- (1) he beat the defender by 5+ steps jetting down field (but still dropped it). But a positive takeaway; he has very good speed for his size. (2) about three plays later Eli wobbled a pass about 10 yards down field, Nicks jumped up and snatched from the sky, came down and a DB bounced right off him, and the next DB came up and got his “ankles broken” as Nicks did a “360” right past him and dashed for a 68-yard TD. You will never see Crabtree do that.

Nicks was as good as Crabtree, if not better in college. Crabtree just got more camera time and played in a system to help him tally stats. Nicks was better than Crabtree in their rookie season in the NFL, but the talk still surrounded how well Crabtree fit in and how great he will be. Nicks will be better than Crabtree in 2010 (and beyond), I project. Nicks has a better QB to work with in Eli, and Nicks is just a better overall WR – he’s faster, stronger, runs good routes, and has produced better at every level so far.

If you want to waste a Fantasy Football Draft pick in 2010, reach up for San Fran’s “true” Tight End – Michael Crabtree (he and Vernon Davis ought to swap positions, seriously). If you want a WR that may breakout in 2010 as a top star in Fantasy Football (and the NFL), then maneuver to Draft Hakeem Nicks.

The media has let you down for a couple years now on this one.

 

 

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