Candidate #1 for the most over-hyped player in the NFL/Fantasy Football for 2010 is Mr. Dez Bryant. I don't think there is a secret agenda to do so, but the story/hype has been shaped going as far back as the NFL Draft. The storyline has been parroted by everyone, and up the charts Dez Bryant has risen at this point in the 2010 FF Draft. Every story I have seen concerning the opening week of Cowboys preseason was about Dez Bryant -- some his own making for not carrying pads, but mostly about how great he is or what he is thinking about.

How all this hype happens is subtle.

Dez Bryant falls from a supposed Top 5-10 overall Draft pick in 2010, and some experts even said the "best player in the 2010 NFL Draft", but then Bryant plummets to pick # 24 overall to the Dallas Cowboys. What is the media storyline of that fall from grace? Not, character issues (although some media made mention of it). More importantly, the storyline not picked up on the "dirty little secret" that Dez Bryant may not physically/talent-wise be ready to be a Top NFL WR. I know, I am heretic -- but stay with me for a couple more pages. The media raced right past those two issues and started shaping a story of how the Cowboys passed on Randy Moss in 1998; and how it "burned them" -- so they "weren't going to make that mistake again".

Subliminally, unintentionally, we begin to have it in our minds (speak in hypnotized tone, the following...) -- "Dez Bryant is as good as Randy Moss..." (what font do you use to denote a hypnotized voice?). This thought is already rattling around in many fans heads.

The 1st Issue on this whole Draft day thing -- Why would the only NFL team who has regrets about passing on Randy Moss in the 1998 NFL Draft, be the Dallas Cowboys? Now suddenly, twelve years later, the Cowboys have to make amends? Besides Peyton Manning to the Colts at the # 1 overall pick in 1998, I would guess that the next 19 teams which passed on Randy Moss (many of whom passed on Dez Bryant also in 2010) would like to have their 1998 pick to re-do as well. For example:

• The Titans # 16 selection in 1998 (the last WR taken before Moss) was Kevin Dyson (WR, Utah). It sure looks dumb in hindsight. Why didn't the Titans take Dez Bryant this year to make up for skipping Randy Moss in 1998?
• The Lions with the pick right before Randy Moss selecting Terry Fair (CB, Tennessee)?
• Three picks prior, Moss's current team selected Robert Edwards (RB, Georgia). Why aren't the Patriots trying to make up for by-passing Moss in 1998?
• Do you think the Chargers would like to have not taken Ryan Leaf (QB, Wash St) at # 2 in 1998?
• At least the Cowboys got the serviceable long time NFL player Greg Ellis (LB, UNC) at # 8 that year.

This whole "the Cowboys just had to take Dez Bryant" commentary somehow gives Bryant "special" validity, and the fact that so many teams passed on him is conveniently ignored in the equation. I would be much more interested why everyone else passed versus the one team that grabbed him. But, that might have been said in 1998 when many passed on Randy Moss. However, I think there is a legitimate argument that Bryant may not be the "Superman" we are being pushed to believe he is.

The 2nd issue on all this Draft hype -- Dez Bryant is not nearly as good as Randy Moss. I don't mean to be harsh on Dez Bryant, but Randy Moss comes along once in a decade or more. Dez Bryant is debatably the best WR in the 2010 NFL Draft, but not potentially the best in a decade. Moss was bigger/taller and much faster coming out of college. Bryant ran a 4.53 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine, which is considered "slower" among WR's. Moss didn't run at the NFL Combine, but most suspect he would have been a sub-4.4 40-yard time. If you think a 4.53 40-yard dash time doesn't mean anything, look at the 3 most productive WR's in the NFL who ran a 4.53 40-yard dash, or slower, at the NFL Combine in the past 5 seasons (since 2004):

1. Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ (2004) 4.54
2. Lance Moore, NO (2005) 4.55
3. Austin Collie, IND (2009) 4.56

Fine WR's, but none have been the next Randy Moss. If you look back over the last decade you would find:

1. Larry Fitzgerald, ARI (2004) 4.53
2. Chad Johnson/OchoCinco, CIN (2001) 4.57
3. Plaxico Burress, Jail (2000) 4.59 -- but 6'6
4. Anquan Boldin, BAL (2003) 4.72 -- ran hurt, ran better at pro day.

Boldin I give a pass due to injury. Ocho and Burress have done well, but did little in their rookie season (remember we are really debating Bryant's Fantasy value for this season, as a rookie).

Larry Fitzgerald is the major exception to the rule, but even Fitzgerald had just an OK/good rookie season (11.5 FF PPG PPR, and 7.9 FF PPG Traditional). Of the nearly 200 WR's running times over 4.53+ 40-yard dash times at the NFL Combine in the decade, Larry Fitzgerald stands out as a future Hall of Famer for sure. One consistently elite WR out of the nearly 200 in a decade. Looking back, Fitzgerald was better and more heralded than Bryant coming out of college. It was obvious Fitzgerald ran better routes, had better hands, and has better character. Every time a media "favored" college WR prospect runs a slow 40-time, here comes the "well, Larry Fitzgerald....". I'll take the 199 of 200 side of the odds, and leave the 1 and 200 chance player finds to a luckier person than I.

Many point to Dez Bryant's great college sophomore season as evidence of his pending greatness, since his junior year was cut short for rules violation. He had some great stats, but a look closer and maybe Bryant would be downgraded from "great" to "good". Below is Dez Bryant's 7 toughest college games over his last 2 seasons (his SO/JR year). His 2 toughest non-conference games, Georgia 2009, and vs. Oregon in a Bowl Game in 2008, added with the 5 toughest (best record) conference opponents from 2008 (he played 1 conference game in 2009 against lowly Rice, not included).

Not bad stats per game for Bryant, but a dime-a-dozen among college players. Against 6 out of the 7 "toughest" games/opponents above. Bryant was held under 100 yards receiving. Do you think that it is unfair to cherry pick opponents like that? Let's compare to another recent Big-12 and NFL drafted WR that is very similar -- only 1/2 inch taller and almost the same 40-yard dash speed (4.51 vs. Bryant's 4.53) from the NFL Combine. Look at the stats and per game average below for our "mystery man" with his toughest opponents and see if you can guess who it might be that was better than Dez Bryant statistically yet and has similar physical attributes.

Our "mystery man" has 3 more receptions per game, 29 more yards per game and just a hair better TD's per game. Who is this elite WR? What Big-12 WR is it? Could it be Michael Crabtree (Texas Tech)? Jeremy Maclin  (Missouri)? No on both.

How about Kansas State's Jordy Nelson? Many just said, "who"? Jordy Nelson is a current Green Bay Packers WR (and a Metrics 2010 "semi-Sleeper"), and the Packers 2008 2nd Round draft pick. The point is not to down Bryant or to down (or boost) Nelson. The point is, Nelson has similar physical measureables and better stats in "meaningful" games within the same conference. Both WR's played with good college QB's. So where is the "Green Bay missed out on Randy Moss in 1998, so they had to have Jordy Nelson in 2008" storyline?

Why didn't you know who Jordy Nelson was (some of you), yet know everything Dez Bryant had to eat this week? Nelson was selected only 12 picks later than Bryant. Nelson is a similar size and speed WR with better college production. Where is the constant Jordy Nelson daily update from ESPN, or any other media outlet?

All this hype is pushing Dez Bryant up the Fantasy Football Draft lists, but should it? What can we realistically expect from Bryant in his rookie season on an already loaded Cowboys team?

Let's back into the math possibilities for Bryant's 2010 performance, but first let's set up some basic arguments:

• Miles Austin will be the lead WR for the Cowboys in 2010. He is bigger, faster, and obviously established vs. Dez Bryant.
• Jason Witten will be the 2nd alternative for any pass, or end zone, or first down need. Witten is 3 inches taller than Bryant, making him a better TD target. Witten is also established with Romo.
• Dez Bryant should (but not a guarantee) beat out Roy Williams for that 3rd WR option. (Although I bet Williams at least starts the first game of the season).

Over the past 2 years Cowboys QB's have averaged the following . NOTE: Romo missed part of 2008 with injury.

Let's assume the 2 year average can be a basis for 2010, and we can fill in the blanks by WR (assuming no injuries). Note: I will round some numbers on yards/rec to make it a simpler read. Our computer models are more exact for the projections.

A 50 catch, 800 yard, 5 TD season is a fine rookie NFL season, but it is not the 24-27th best WR in Fantasy Football numbers, like his ADP (Average Draft Position) is showing so far in early Fantasy Football Draft action. A 10.0 FF PPG (PPR scoring) would place you in the 40's among WR projections for 2010. A 7.0 FF PPG (Traditional scoring) would have landed in the mid-to-late 30's overall among WR's if we look back at 2009 final rankings.

To justify his ADP's right now, he is going to have to get 80 catches, 1000+ yards and 6+ TD's. Even if Bryant is "that good" talent-wise, will Miles Austin and Jason Witten just drop into secondary roles to a rookie? Will Romo abandon his All-Pro WR and TE, for a shorter, slower, and less experienced rookie....with character issues?

Watching the NFL Network's programs that follow and document a couple of draftees from after college through the process of NFL Draft Day is an eye-opening experience. As a business person, I'm watching the Michael Crabtree featured documentary segments and I tried to watch from the perspective of "If I was running a team...". In that scenario if I had a high draft pick, "would I take this kid (Crabtree), and give him tens of millions of dollars"? During most of the documentary Crabtree is with his "friends" and family. He was not seen working out much, and had Deion Sanders as an agent/advisor.

Why did Dez Bryant get suspended from college football in 2009? Illegal contact with agent/advisor Deion Sanders. If you see Deion Sanders representing a high profile player, you should probably run in the other direction. Dez Bryant and Michael Crabtree are very similar on and off the field, right down to the hype. (Crabtree last year as a rookie, 7.5 FF PPG Traditional, and 11.4 FF PPG PPR....similar to what we are projecting for from Bryant, which is OK but not great).

There is as much chance that Dez Bryant is a bit of a bust, as a chance that he hits decent scoring for Fantasy Football 2010. Even if Bryant does put up decent numbers in 2010, he will likely start the season out slow -- maybe even sitting behind Roy Williams for a few games. How will all those Fantasy Football GM's that are "reaching" for Bryant in the FF Draft like a 2-3 FF PPG start in the first 2-3 games of the 2010 season? Are you willing to wait for his scoring to kick in later, hopefully? There are so many better producing, known commodities/starters in the same FF Draft range available where Bryant is being selected/picked at so far.

Thanks ESPN, it took me a span of 4 days to complete this article -- and not a day went by that you didn't feature Dez Bryant in someway. Not ESPN's fault, people love rookie hype and America loves the Cowboys.

It is a very heavy investment when you use a Top-100 Fantasy Football Draft pick. If that player selected that is not likely to produce Top 100 Fantasy Football value, it's a wasted opportunity. It appears statistically to be a draft mistake to take Dez Bryant any where near where he is going to likely be selected at (Top 50-75). A bad ROI (Return on Investment) for 2010. The hype is over-inflating his Fantasy Football Draft value.