Vincent Jackson is suspended for 3 games, and may holdout for many more games. Naturally we are told by everyone to flock to Malcom Floyd as a top player pick for The 2011 Fantasy Football Draft as the heir apparent to Jackson. Floyd is now flying up the Fantasy Football rankings with all the promise of his 6'5, 220 pound/big target body...especially for the End Zone jump balls. It is going to be awesome!.....Except, has anyone checked to see if Malcom Floyd is actually any good?

Floyd was supposed to "break out" in 2009 after a decent showing in 2008. Floyd is a big body and makes a nice/big target, but all that physique and hype, resulted in just 1 TD in 2009. Floyd managed just 1 touchdown on a team with Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson playing great all year, with Chargers opponents having to put their best coverage personnel on Gates and Jackson -- which left the big 6'5 WR option (Floyd) with the lesser coverage. Floyd should have been a great End Zone option to go to. The Chargers/Philip Rivers must NOT have thought so in 2009. They chose NOT to target Floyd in the End Zone very often. When they did in 2009, it resulted in just the 1 TD. So much for Floyd as an amazing "TD machine".

This is the same WR (Floyd) who many are considering as the 25-30th best WR prospect in their upcoming Fantasy Football Draft, and a Fantasy Football ranking and ADP around the 60-70th overall player selected? What is going to happen when the top DB's start to cover Floyd with Jackson out? Floyd is likely to get shut down and pushed around. I'm not saying Floyd will never catch ball in 2010, I am saying this is likely not a top flight WR in the making. Don't take my word for it, or the 2009 data's word for it. Take the San Diego Chargers, Norv Turner, and Philip Rivers word for it. Take a look back at the start of 2009....

A little 2009 rewind -- The Chargers enter the season with the great Antonio Gates as the primary target for Philip Rivers. Vincent Jackson was emerging as a potential great. Chris Chambers was a key WR for them still at this point. Malcom Floyd was coming off a decent/promising 2008. No one had really even had heard of Legedu Naanee.

Game 1 vs. Oakland (I'm watching the game right now) -- The starting WR's were Vincent Jackson and Kassim Osgood (yes, it was). On the first series of the season it's Jackson and Osgood, then after the first 2 plays -- the very first 3rd down of 2009 for the Chargers, in came Chris Chambers and Legedu Naanee. The WR NOT in on this first series of the season was Malcom Floyd.

Game 1 vs. OAK	REC	YARDS	TGTS	TD
V. Jackson	5	56	7	1
L. Naanee	5	49	6	0
M.Floyd	1	17	1	0
C. Chambers	0	0	0	1

After Week 1, Legedu Naanee was tied for being the leader in receptions by a Chargers WR. Naanee is also just 1 target and 7 yards behind Vincent Jackson from being the top  Chargers WR to start the season. Malcom Floyd was not really on the radar screen. The Chargers showed no intention to feature (or hardly even to play) Malcom Floyd in the first game of 2009. Despite Floyd's decent end to 2008, and after his 4th season of Chargers training camp -- and now after Game 1 of 2009, Floyd is a missing person. The WR who surprisingly gets a decent amount of attention in the opener is Legedu Naanee.

Flash forward to after the first 4 Weeks of the 2009 season. Vincent Jackson has a couple of 120+ yard games, and is starting to show signs of being a true star. Perhaps Malcom Floyd has emerged now after a slow game one? No...

Week 1-4	REC	YARDS	TGTS	TD
V. Jackson	16	373	29	2
L. Naanee	12	117	16	0
C. Chambers	6	59	22	0
M. Floyd	4	127	8	0

After 4 weeks of 2009, Naanee is starting to make a case as 2nd WR option -- a physical slot receiver. Floyd is getting the occasional deep ball throw, averaging only 2 targets per game and only 1 catch per game. In the Chargers Week 4 game at Pittsburgh, Floyd had no catches and just 1 target. As the 2009 season progressed up to Week 4, Floyd was becoming more invisible, Chris Chambers is falling apart (later to be cut), and Naanee's role is steady. Neither of the Floyd or Naanee 4-week cumulative stats screamed "emerging star", but it certainly shows the Chargers had more of an important role in mind for Naanee rather than Floyd at this point.

Following the Bye Week 5, the season changed for all of the Chargers WR's. Naanee disappeared for the next 3 games, but he was not listed anywhere as injured although he did have foot injuries keeping him limited in practice much of 2nd half of 2009. Chris Chambers produced sparingly and is benched for Floyd -- and is ultimately cut in Week 8. Now the path is totally clear for Floyd to step into a starting WR role opposite Vincent Jackson.

Even though Naanee essentially did not play for 3 games (Week 6-8), it still takes Floyd into Week 11 before he ever passes Naanee in receptions for the season YTD. Chambers is cut, Naanee is hurt, and with the opportunity wide open -- Floyd only manages a season high of 4 catches in a game (until the meaningless Week 17). As a starter for SD, Floyd typically manages just 2 or 3 catches each game. By comparison, Naanee had 5 catches in the season opener.

Naanee comes back in Weeks 9-11, and is used sparingly, but still scores a TD in both Week 10 and 11. Naanee will finish 2009 with 2 TD's on the season, and  in limited use the final 12 games. Floyd takes over as a starter in Week 7, and in 11 games as a starter he scores only 1 TD the entire season.

Floyd and Naanee are different receivers, so it is not a totally "apples-to-apples" comparison. Naanee is a strong 6'2, 220 pound slot/over-the-middle receiver, but has speed (4.41 40-yard dash, and 6.73  3-cone agility). Naanee also has a well above NFL WR average 40 inch vertical (at the NFL Combine), and a well above average NFL WR Bench Press (19 at the NFL Combine). Naanee is quick for his size, and strong. Naanee brings a lot to the table physically. He was the 5th Round NFL draft pick for San Diego in 2007.

Floyd is an undrafted free-agent pickup (nothing wrong with that, but...). He wasn't invited to the NFL Combine, so we do not have a great knowledge of his "measureables" for strength and speed. Floyd is ultimately used by the Chargers as an occasional deep threat, a tall/big target but doesn't seem to be physical enough to dominate. Floyd did not dominate lesser DB's covering him as an occasional starter/2nd-3rd option WR last year. What will happen when Floyd is the main deep focus without Vince Jackson there, and the top DB's are left cover Floyd?

As I look back to college performances, Floyd didn't light up the world using his size at the University of Wyoming either.

Legedu Naanee and Malcom Floyd -- Final Season of their College Career:

*% Rec, Yds, TD = the players percentage of their college teams overall totals in that category. A college "market share", if you will...

Chargers WR's	Draft	Pick	H	W	College	Rec	Yds	TD's	%Rec	%Yds	%TD
Legedu Naanee	2007	172	6'2	225	Boise St	35	541	6	17%	20%	24%
Malcom Floyd	2004	FA	6/5	214	Wyoming	63	834	6	25%	27%	26%

Even going back to college, neither Floyd nor Naanee were great "TD Machines". But Floyd was a huge target, and in college he should have been an End Zone threat every time. Floyd's Wyoming team threw much more (426 times) than Naanee's Boise State squad (306 times), so it wasn't like there wasn't any opportunity for Floyd.

Examining touchdown proficiency of 6'1 (and taller) WR's who went on to dominate in the NFL more recently (last 3-4 years)  -- you won't find "big/tall" WR's who went on to be superior in the NFL, who had grabbed less than 40% of their teams total passing TD's in their final season in college.

College WR Touchdown "Market Share" (the percentage of TD's the WR caught, of all his teams passing TD's):

NFL "Star" WR	College	Height	TD's	%TD
V.Jackson, SD	N.Colorado	6.475	19	83%
C. Johnson, DET	Ga Tech	6.500	15	60%
R. White, ATL	UAB	6.125	14	54%
M. Austin, DAL	Monmouth	6.212	11	52%
B. Marshall, MIA	Cen Fla	6.450	11	46%
M. Colston, NO	Hofstra	6.463	9	45%
S. Rice, MIN	S.Carolina	6.350	10	42%
M. Floyd, SD	Wyoming	6.500	6	26%
L. Naanee, SD	Boise St	6.213	6	24%

I didn't cherry pick this list of 6'1+ WR's, and just list out the ones that fit the thesis. I looked in our database for the prior 4-5 years of Draft/College data and filtered it to WR's that made it big/fairly big (established as a top WR at moment) in the NFL. I then filtered it to only the 6'1 and over (Floyd and Naanee are bigger WR's). There were only 7 that fit that profile for size and success. What all 7 WR's had in common -- all had more than 40% of their college teams TD "Market Share". Not a good sign for Floyd to be a "Big TD target" in the NFL (not good for Naanee either, but he is more a slot receiver than a big/deep target...although he is not small at 6'2).

For good reason much attention is being focused on the Chargers WR situation in 2010. While everyone is salivating over Malcom Floyd as a starter and/or a top target while Vincent Jackson is out, Floyd's Fantasy Football ranking in the upcoming draft is rising quickly and he is being pushed way past a good draft value. My Metrics say that Floyd may have more "bust" tendencies than "star" tendencies.

The real draft value may be the player most people don't know -- Legedu Naanee. Naanee may be the one who winds up with more catches, more yards, and more TD's from the slot than Floyd as a deep threat. If you are looking for good Fantasy Football Draft value in the Chargers WR plight, consider Legedu Naanee and be cautious on "reaching" for Malcom Floyd.

 

 

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