FANTASY FOOTBALL PROJECTIONS ~ K Boss 2010

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News: "Blue Horseshoe loves"....Kevin Boss

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FANTASY FOOTBALL METRICS - TE

By R.C. Fischer

"Blue Horseshoe loves"....Kevin Boss

Tight End's in Fantasy Football 2010 have been totally insane....

Think back to the preseason, who were the Top-5 TEs? Dallas Clark, Vernon Davis, Antonio Gates, Jermichael Finley, Jason Witten. Clark and Finley lost early due to injury, Davis has been terrible (actually Davis is fine, the 49ers passing game/offense/QBs is terrible, and Jason Witten has been up & down, mostly mediocre.

There were "sleeper" TEs for Fantasy 2010 -- Brent Celek, Zach Miller (Oak), Owen Daniels (off injury). Celek has been a disaster, Miller was getting very good and then got hurt has never been the same, and Owen Daniels has been worse than anyone.

As the season unfolded, TEs popped up to temporarily "claim the throne"...making us all rush after them, only to be left holding the bag; usually 1 week too late. Dustin Keller, Visanthe Shiancoe, Tony Moeaki, Jermaine Gresham, Aaron Hernandez (to name a few) all likely got into lineups too late to get the slice of goodness they offered. Now they are all just another dud name among TEs.

I think people have collectively been worn out on the TE situation. Outside of Jacob Tamme and maybe Tony Gonzalez, everyone has been hopping around so many solutions and always late...that I think that most people now are just sticking with their current "bum" and "hoping". Another emotion mixed in there is -- "I'm sure there are no good TE's left anyway". I was kind of there thinking there were no TEs left, but then the computer discovered a temporary fix 2 weeks ago in Giants TE Kevin Boss.

Boss started so slow that no one has hardly had him on a roster this year...and if they did, they dropped him after Week 1-2. The slow start has left Kevin Boss hiding amongst the available TE minutia, hiding the fact that he has been one of the best TE plays over the past couple weeks.

Top-5 scoring (traditional) TEs in PPG last 4 weeks (at least 3 games played):

  1. 10.6 = Tamme, IND
  2.  9.2 = Gronkowski, NE (if not for a 3-TD game a few weeks ago, he would not be near this list)
  3.  8.8 = Boss, NYG
  4.  8.7 = Heap, BAL
  5.  7.8 = Dreessen, HOU

Where Boss differs from Heap and Dreessen is two-fold:

1) Targets

Over the past 3 games Boss has been becoming more integrated into the Giants passing game, whereas Heap and Dreessen are a cute diversion in the passing game (of sorts). Targets per game, last 3 games:

  1. 6.3 = Boss, NYG
  2. 5.3 = Heap, BAL
  3. 4.0 = Dreessen, HOU

Boss was the 5th most targeted TE last week with 8 targets (10 for Witten was #1), but was the single highest scoring (traditional) TE last week with 13.4 points.

2) Surroundings...

The major reason for this play on Boss, is the Giants recent loss of Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith (and Ramses Barden) at WR. Once they come back, Boss falls back to "just another TE". Without Nicks and Smith, Boss is the Giants top receiving threat and especially best end-zone threat. Many think it's Mario Manningham, he's a fine 3rd WR with Nicks and Smith drawing primary coverage...but Manningham is not a #1 WR that can excel over #1 CB's. Last week was the first time both Nicks and Smith were out and Eli Manning targeted Boss 8 times, to Manningham's 4.

With so many of us staring at this week as a "must win" to either lock in a playoff spot early, or to take the standings advantage with a week to go, or to keep hope alive...every point/decision is critical now. As opposed to sticking with your dud TE on a bad matchup, consider Kevin Boss for just this one week (assuming Nicks and Smith back next week) to put more odds in your favor.

 

Fantasy Football Writer R C FischerBy R.C. Fischer
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