I am seeing NFL First Round Draft pick Jermaine Gresham (CIN) as the 17-20th Tight End off the early Fantasy Football Draft Board as someone's backup TE. More than once, I have seen Gresham selected for a team's first TE. Occasionally, I see 2010 draftees Rob Gronkowski (NE) and/or Aaron Hernandez (NE) come off the board as backup Tight End's as well. It may not seem like a big deal, a "throw away" draft pick on a backup TE. But, I want every edge as Fantasy Football GM, even on backup Tight End's -- and as I researched the question, I found it is a bad statistical bet to waste this opportunity on a rookie TE. Opportunity, on a backup TE? Sometimes your backup Tight End becomes your starting Tight End (or great trade value) , because he becomes a star. History shows a pattern on Tight End's as:

1. 1st-2nd Round drafted Tight End is hyped high for rookie season.
2. Rookie Tight End has mediocre (FF) season in his first year
3. The sophomore season arrives (and with each passing season), and the Tight End's rookie excitement subsides and the excitement is then fixated on the new crop of rookie Tight End's.
4. Then (if stardom is going to happen...) the "kinda forgotten" Tight End breaks out in year 2, 3, or 4.

Looking back (below) at the Top Tight End's of today, and analyzing their rookie campaigns -- some great names, big performers, and very mediocre rookie FF results.

FF PPG	Rookie TE	Year	QB in Rookie season	Games	Rec	Yards	TD's	Fum Lost	Notes....
6.5	Jeremy Shockey, NYG	2002	Kerry Collins	15	74	894	2	2	Best season, his 4th season. 8+ FF PPG in 15 games.
5.8	John Carlson, SEA	2008	Matt Hasselbeck	16	55	627	5	0	2 very good seasons, no elite type yet
5.1	Heath Miller, PIT	2005	Ben Roethlisberger	16	39	459	6	0	5 solid seasons, 2009 his best. No elite seasons yet.
4.7	Owen Daniels, HOU	2006	David Carr	14	34	352	5	0	His 4th season, 2009 was starting to be the breakthrough but ACL injury cut short
4.5	Dustin Keller, NYJ	2008	Brett Favre	16	48	535	3	0	Similar seasons with Favre and Sanchez in 2 seasons, nothing big for FF yet
4.3	Vernon Davis, SF	2006	Alex Smith	10	20	265	3	1	3 ok seasons, before the 2009 breakout
4.2	Brandon Pettigrew, DET	2009	Stafford/Culpepper	11	30	346	2	0	Decent start rookie 2009 season, cut short on injury
4.0	Dallas Clark, IND	2003	Peyton Manning	10	29	340	1	0	5th season in 2007 was a move toward the elite, his 7th (2009) being the best
3.8	Zach Miller, OAK	2007	McCown/Culpepper	16	44	444	3	1	3 good seasons, no elite seasons
3.7	Greg Olsen, CHI	2007	Griese/Grossman	14	39	391	2	0	Improved in each of 3 seasons, but no elite FF seasons yet
3.3	Antonio Gates, SD	2003	Brees/Flutie	15	24	389	2	1	Breakout season in 2nd year.
3.1	Tony Gonzalez, KC	1997	Grbac/Gannon	16	33	368	2	0	Breakout in 3rd season
2.7	Jason Witten, DAL	2003	Quincy Carter	15	35	347	1	0	2nd season breakout, 5th season his best
2.5	Kellen Winslow Jr, CLE	2004	Jeff Garcia	2	5	50	0	0	Solid 2nd season, breakout in 3rd
2.1	Todd Heap, BAL	2001	Elvis Grbac	12	16	206	1	1	Pretty good 2nd and 5th season. Mediocre FF outside of that.
1.8	Kevin Boss, NYG	2007	Eli Manning	13	9	118	2	0	No real breakout yet after 3 seasons
1.6	Ben Watson, NE	2004	Tom Brady	1	2	16	0	0	never had a top FF season
1.5	Brent Celek, PHI	2007	Donovan McNabb	16	16	178	1	0	Breakout in 3rd season, last year.
1.1	Visanthe Shiancoe, MIN	2002	Dante Culpepper	16	10	56	2	0	2009 was his best season w/ Favre
1.0	Jermichael Finley, GB	2008	Aaron Rodgers	14	6	74	1	0	Breakout in 2nd half of 2009
3.5	ALL TE	AVG	16 GAME SEASON/PACE		35	395	2.9

Lower scoring (FF-wise) on rookie Tight End's knew little exception or pattern. Didn't matter if a good QB, or bad. Good overall team, or bad. This decade, or just the last few years. 20 Tight End's listed above, and none with a Top 10 type scoring for Fantasy Football in their rookie season. 0-for-20 is what you are fighting with a hope on 2010 rookie Tight End's = Gresham, Hernandez, Gronkowski, or Pitta, etc.

Jeremy Shockey stands out on the list, but that 6.5 FF PPG rookie performance in 2002 would have placed him as the 13th best scoring Tight End in 2009. Good but not great. The overall point being, when it gets to the point of taking a 2nd Tight End (if you do) in the Draft -- your gamble TE...you hope that the gamble Tight End may "breakout" and give you options (start, trade). Recent history shows that a rookie Tight End is not likely to break to the upside/"breakout" on FF scoring, therefore (statistically) it is a waste of a Draft pick to hope that it will.

Some of the Tight End's above, obviously, did breakout at some point. More often than not  -- it was in their Year 2 or 3 or 4 in the NFL. Knowing that as an FF GM, the best way to play your backup Tight End draft selection is to stay away from rookies and gravitate toward an undervalued/forgotten/former "hot" rookies from a year(s) ago. If you did that last season, you might have landed on Vernon Davis, Brent Celek or Jermichael Finley. Who fits this profile in 2010? Some examples of backup Tight End gambles that I like the Metrics possibilities on (no guarantees, just one's that fit some of the profile):

• Dustin Keller (NYJ) -- have high Metrics on him, but plays in a system that doesn't throw as much and still a newer QB to work with.

• Zach Miller (Jacksonville) -- came on late, great receiver and athlete. Will the Jags Offense allow a "breakout"?

• Zach Miller (Oakland) -- 3 solid seasons, better QB in 2010.

• Kevin Boss (NYG) -- growing trust with Eli, but surrounded by great young WR's.

• Jared Cook (Tennessee) -- probably too much to ask for a huge leap from weak 2009 Rookie season, but his physical measureables are Vernon Davis like.

• Fred Davis (Washington) -- kind of a 2nd year breakout last year, falling in 2010 Draft with Chris Cooley coming back. Has star potential.

• Shawn Nelson (Buffalo) -- on a better team with a better QB, Nelson could be a star.

• Gary Barnidge (Carolina) -- more like a WR than a TE, I think he plays a more major role in 2010. Unfortunately bad QB situation.

• Brandon Pettigrew (Detroit) -- if he comes back from ACL ok, but Tony Scheffler is in the mix too.

• James Casey (Houston) -- amazing college story, long, long shot...but if Owen Daniels is not ready, Casey could be the next Daniels.

High scoring/elite Tight End's are a premium. History shows a rookie is not going to give you a chance to have one. If you are going to gamble -- gamble on a 2nd, 3rd, or 4th year TE. It puts the math more in your favor.

*I looked back at a couple elite Tight End's from recent (but a little while ago) history. Shannon Sharpe and Kellen Winslow Sr., only played 7 games each their rookie season. Sharpe was a 2.1 FF PPG performer, and Winslow was 5.3 FF PPG as a rookie. The one pretty decent exception, the best rookie Tight End season I fumbled over -- Keith Jackson in 1990. 81 catches, 869 yards, 6 TD's for a 7.6 FF PG. A very good season, not FF great. There are other Tight End's out there to consider I'm sure (from history), but I am more focused on the more current way the game is played/run -- for its impact on making 2010 projections.

 

 

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