If your Fantasy Football TE is Dallas Clark, Antonio Gates, Jermichael Finley or Visanthe Shiancoe (or Tony Gonzalez last week), then you are excused from this article. Everyone else hates you, and you may likely be suffering from “TE-Derangement Syndrome”. One of the classic warning signs of the onset terrible affliction is having started Vernon Davis, Brent Celek, Jason Witten, or Owen Daniels the first 3 weeks of The 2011 Fantasy Football season. 

Of course I’m kidding, but not really.  

Some of this syndrome is self-inflicted. Part of the statistical strategy we have railed on and against is why Fantasy Football GM’s put so much stock into QB’s and could care less about their TE’s, and are pushed by “group-think” to not take a TE early and/or before anyone else takes one. Statistically, I could argue, the TE is more important than the QB in Fantasy Football. Not many people want to buy that argument, not that they have a rational reason why not...it's just "because". I participated in preseason Mock Drafts and occasionally I would take Antonio Gates in the 3^rd Round just to mix it up and people would become “unglued” as if I just committed the crime of the century.  

Make a mistake at QB in the preseason Fantasy Draft and there are a bunch of viable alternatives to choose from off Week 1-2. In leagues where I took Kevin Kolb, I now have Michael Vick or Kyle Orton…doing fine thank you. Make a mistake at TE, and have fun trying to sift through whom to take now. Enjoy the “evil” roller-coaster ride of picking up last weeks “hot” TE, just in time for his 2 catch for 29 yard and no TD performance the week you have him. TE is a very critical Fantasy Football position, one that I believe is more/just as important as selecting and maintaining a QB. 

OK, however you and/or I got here...we’re here with an underperforming TE, and now what do we do? 

The “best laid plans of mice and men…”, can go awry. I have Gates and Finley in about half the leagues I am associated with. The other half, I have Vernon Davis and Brent Celek. I have had to deal with a decision on Davis and Celek…what do I do now? 

One decision is easy. You cannot give up or let go of Vernon Davis. Vernon Davis is the best receiving TE in the NFL (sorry to the great Gates, Finley, Clark). There is no TE with physical metrics like Vernon Davis, and obviously he has proven ability on the field. Davis is stuck in a bad Offense, with a mediocre QB, and is drawing all the coverage. All things that were true last year. You will not find a better TE than Vernon Davis on the TE scrap heap. If anything you should try to trade for him while his value is down. 

The other decision I have is hard, but I face to reality. Brent Celek is “dead money”. I had Brent Celek as the projected #1-2 scoring TE for Fantasy Football 2010 based on a higher passing attempt Offense led by Kevin Kolb. Celek’s performance was at its peak in 2009 when he was paired with Kolb, as they are close friends. Take away Kolb, insert Vick and now it’s a lower attempt passing game and with a QB that doesn’t use the TE as much – and bingo, Celek is mainly toast as a possible top-5 TE for 2010. Celek is not like Davis, where Davis is the most physically gifted TE in the NFL and he has to be used/will overcome. Celek is just "good" and his projections are heavily dependent upon a circumstance (just like if Dallas Clark was on the Carolina Panthers right now, vs. being paired with Peyton Manning). The game has changed, Celek + Vick = Fantasy mediocrity for Celek. 

Many people that I am hearing from are coming to the realization that their TE situation is a mess, and aren’t sure what to do now. “TE-Derangement syndrome” has definitely struck them. Further symptoms of “TE-Derangement Syndrome” include adding Marcedes Lewis and Bo Scaife in the past few weeks. I feel for those afflicted, as I have been struck with this as well where I have Brent Celek. So now what do we do? 

First, I would make a run at under-valued TE’s to see if I could get lucky. I am trying to trade for Vernon Davis and I am adding Owen Daniels if I see him cast aside. The Owen Daniels move is a stretch, but Daniels has been best-in-class just last year. Daniels is slow coming off ACL and may never produce elite again, but he did in 2009 and I’d rather gamble on TE’s that have proven to be recently Fantasy-great versus groping around through Brandon Pettigrew and Todd Heap. 

After that, it’s a sea of “maybes” or “if they could just” TE’s. I put a formula together to analyze this group of TE’s based on weighing a couple criteria: 

• Current FF PPG scoring YTD 2010
• Targets per game, full season (YTD 2010)
• Target “trend”, just the last 2 games average
• Fantasy scoring without TD’s included (to see who was most dependent upon TD’s to push scoring so far)
• Next 5 Weeks schedule/opponents in Pass-D difficulty
• “Handcuff” potential, as in another TE on roster to take opportunity away and/or crowded by a group of good/great WR’s (i.e., I like Aaron Hernandez but, he has to fight Moss/Welker/Gronkowski/Crumpler). I want lower probabilities of having to fight for “opportunity” on their own team
• QB Pass Attempts per game, more attempts = more opportunity

 I took the current scoring data + the target trends + assigned value to the opponents + put risk factor in if “handcuffed” + weighed pass attempt levels and came up with a theoretical “Most Likely to Score 10+ Fantasy (Traditional) points”...for the next 5 Weeks.  

The higher the percentage the more likely to score 10+ per game, the lower the percentage the less likely…and also the lower scoring potential in general. This is not a crystal ball (although I hope so), but is an attempt to weigh risk plus current trending – before I blindly “reach into the bag” and pull out a needed TE to replace Brent Celek.

This is all 2010 Data through Week 3:

% chance at 10+ PPG Trad	NAME	TEAM	PPR PPG	Trad PPG		YTD GP	YTD TD	2010 Targets	Target per game		Target last 2 games	Targets per game last 2		PPR PPG minus TD	Trad PPG minus TD	Sched Next 5 Weeks	BYE in next 5 weeks?	Hand cuff ?	QB Pass Att Per game YTD
77.8%	Miller, Zach	OAK	10.9	7.2		3	1	21	7.0		13	6.5		8.9	5.2	A	NO	NO	36.0
75.6%	Davis, Vernon	SF	12.1	6.4		3	0	25	8.3		13	6.5		12.1	6.4	B	NO	NO	39.7
70.8%	Carlson, John	SEA	11.2	6.8		3	1	24	8.0		19	9.5		9.2	4.8	A	Wk 5	NO	30.0
63.7%	Boss, Kevin	NYG	9.3	6.6		1.5	0	8	5.3		7	7.0		9.3	6.6	A	Wk 8	YES	34.0
54.6%	Moeaki, Tony	KC	12.1	8.1		3	3	19	6.3		15	7.5		6.1	2.1	A	Wk 3	NO	25.7
51.2%	Keller, Dustin	NYJ	18.3	12.5		3	3	24	8.0		19	9.5		12.3	6.5	C	Wk 7	YES	26.3
48.4%	Olsen, Greg	CHI	12.0	8.7		3	2	13	4.3		7	3.5		8.0	4.7	B	Wk 8	NO	30.3
45.2%	Lewis, Marcedes	JAC	11.2	7.9		3	2	16	5.3		14	7.0		7.2	3.9	B	NO	YES	30.7
41.2%	Pettigrew, Brandon	DET	10.2	5.6		3	0	19	6.3		17	8.5		10.2	5.6	B	Wk 7	YES	40.7
38.1%	Hernandez, Aaron	NE	11.4	7.0		3	0	15	5.0		13	6.5		11.4	7.0	D	Wk 5	YES	32.7
36.4%	Gresham, Jermaine	CIN	9.6	5.3		3	1	21	7.0		11	5.5		7.6	3.3	B	Wk 6	YES	40.7
33.2%	Scheffler, Tony	DET	10.5	5.6		3	1	20	6.7		13	6.5		8.5	3.6	B	Wk 7	YES	40.7
30.5%	Daniels, Owen	HOU	4.0	2.0		3	0	13	4.3		11	5.5		4.0	2.0	A	Wk 7	YES	33.7
28.8%	Celek, Brent	PHI	6.7	3.7		3	0	15	5.0		11	5.5		6.7	3.7	B	Wk 8	NO	32.7
23.2%	Heap, Todd	BAL	9.8	5.1		3	1	22	7.3		11	5.5		7.8	3.1	C	Wk 8	YES	36.0
17.2%	Scaife, Bo	TEN	7.4	4.7		3	1	8	2.7		5	2.5		5.4	2.7	A	NO	YES	14.3
12.5%	Winslow, Kellen	TB	8.4	4.6		3	0	16	5.3		10	5.0		8.4	4.6	D	Wk 4	NO	29.7
6.7%	Miller, Heath	PIT	4.9	2.3		3	0	11	3.7		6	3.0		4.9	2.3	D	Wk 5	NO	20.0

 

·         Vernon Davis is obviously not on waivers for pickup, I include him on here to show his potential value vs. that of a Brent Celek.

·         Zach Miller, John Carlson, and Dustin Keller are likely already gone in most 12-team leagues, may be available in some 10-team leagues.

 The 2 most likely available options in 12 team leagues are: 

Kevin Boss (13% owned Yahoo) – Boss missed a game and a half with a concussion. Boss came back to 7 targets in Week 3. The Giants seem likely to pass the ball a decent amount this season. Boss and Eli have a decent passing game relationship. The Giants have a bunch of other weapons, but around end-zone it’s Boss and Hakeem Nicks. Teams are likely wise to Nicks (4 TD’s in 3 games) around the end-zone now; Boss makes a great 2^nd end-zone option. The schedule is favorable, and Boss is a great blocker so he will be in the game on most every down. 

Tony Moeaki (8% owned Yahoo)  -- a TD in every game so far in 2010, he is likely to be gone this week. The Chiefs do not have a ton of options around the goal line, and Moeaki has cashed in on that so far. Moeaki is on a Bye week, but if you need a TE for the future he may be the best on the board worth waiting a week for. Hasn’t done a ton besides the TD’s, but not a bad option…better than most.

The sleeper of the group is = Heath Miller – projected numbers based on Week 1-3 are squeezed with Roethlisberger out, but had good stats with Roethlisberger. One to consider getting in ahead on, with no Santonio Holmes Miller is going to be a big end-zone target. Miller is sometimes forgotten in 2010, but has been a product of the low grade passing game of the Steelers with Ben out.

I’m not as high on, and the numbers are against:

Greg Olsen – TD’s are fluffing his Fantasy PPG’s, he is being targeted very little in the Bears system. He is a great TE, just projected under-used in the Bears system. 

Marcedes Lewis – 2 TD’s Week-1 puffed his stats, his Week-1 was a total anomaly of his typical performance. An average TE, on one of the worst passing teams in the NFL.  

Brandon Pettigrew and Tony Scheffler – both very good TE’s, both on the same team to cut into each others performance. Scheffler was good Week 1, Pettigrew in Week 2, both in Week 3. Two different QB’s in 3 games, no pattern to usage, it’s just a pure gamble on what would happen here week-to-week. 

Aaron Hernandez – good receiving TE fighting for opportunity with Moss, Welker, Edelman, Tate, Gronkowski, Crumpler, etc. A nice player, but projects to be Fantasy erratic in the Patriots system. 

Jermaine Gresham – burst on to the scene with 10 targets Week 1 and a TD, very little since. I like the best of this "lower" group but, I don't like counting on rookie TE's as my main TE starter week-to-week.

Todd Heap – good TE, on a Ravens team with a ton of other options including 2 good rookie TE’s. Schedule does not do favors either. A good game on opening night vs. Jets got people excited, nothing much after that. The Jets game was an anomaly.

Bo Scaife – mediocre TE on a team that barely passes the ball. Every once in a while will pop up with a TD, but no chance at consistency with Vince Young. Very limited option here.

I am thinking back to one actual Draft this year where I did take Antonio Gates in the late 3rd Round, and was skewered by a league participant as he took Marques Colston and much later grabbed Jermaine Gresham because "TE's are crazy, they are all the same and there are plenty available later....". He is now trying to make a deal for my backup TE Zach Miller to salvage his (0-3) season. "TE-Derangement Syndrome" is a terrible thing when it hits.....

 

 

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