This was written
before the Week 2 games. In Week 2 Peterson had
his best game rushing and receiving in a while,
and Thomas is playing Monday night. It doesn't
change the article, just a footnote going in.
The Vikings vs. Saints
2010 NFL Season opener spurred a debate between
a friend and I about Adrian Peterson, and
whether Peterson has a waning performance
trend/issue or not. The comment was made by my
friend that Adrian Peterson "looked good". I
watched the game and thought he "looked good"
too. Whenever I say that, I catch myself because
often times "we see what we want to see"...or
for that matter we don't have a trained eye to
know what to look for.
Over the years I have
"seen" many players who I thought for sure would
be awesome, because I saw them once/twice in a
game or on a highlight and went "wow". Players
that come to mind from my younger days -- Ryan
Leaf, Roy Williams (Tex/Dal WR), Cedric Cobbs
(if anyone remembers him), and JJ Arrington. That's
just off the top of my head, I could go on...and
roll into many other sports. I've always
wondered why this would happen, how could I be
so sure about something but wind up being so
wrong?
How can I remove more of the "eyeball test" and my
own bias, and insert more hard data, patterns
and trends into making Fantasy Football
(or any) decisions.
Which leads to Pierre
Thomas, one of my "love child's" of Fantasy
Football (who left me as a mostly "jilted lover"
in 2009).
No one would ever say
that Pierre Thomas is in the same stratosphere
as Adrian Peterson in the NFL or Fantasy
Football. Peterson is a debated # 1 overall
pick, while Thomas is debated as whether a 3rd
or 4th Round selection. There is no doubt the
smart money would be on Peterson. However, I do
want to address two trends that I think most
people are overlooking:
- Adrian Peterson is
tailing off in performance
- Pierre Thomas has
the potential to produce at the same
capacity as Adrian Peterson
Peterson and his
performance decline(?):
Much like what Tom Brady
does to our minds, Adrian Peterson may be doing
as well. Take away the incredible 2007 of Tom
Brady, and the Patriots 59-0 embarrassment
against Tennessee in 2009 and Tom Brady is a 15
+/- Point Per Game (which is middle of the pack)
Fantasy Football QB for most of his career.
Brady had one amazing year (2007), which you
cannot take away, but we remember Brady's 2007
magic season and conveniently leave out the hard data
of all the other 8 seasons he has played.
Adrian Peterson had a
great season in Fantasy Football 2009, pushed by
an amazing TD productivity (18 TD's last season). Can
we count on that level of TD performance again?
Thomas Jones out rushed Adrian Peterson last
year, and almost had as many rushing TD's as AP
too. What Peterson has done of late has been
"very good", but is it "awesome"?
What Chris Johnson did
last year was "awesome" comparative to Peterson.
Let's look at their 2009, and some career data,
a little closer.
Of Peterson's 18 rushing TD's in 2009:
- 15 of
the 18 TD's were from 7 yards or closer, or 83%
- 14 of the 18 TD's
were within 5 yards, or 78%. Most of those
were just 1-2 yards away.
Peterson enjoys what
could be
classified as a "lucky" circumstance
(close to the goal line carries), or even a
push from the Vikings coaches, and/or he
benefits from his short
yardage skill.
Closeness/proximity was
not a factor for Peterson in 2007 and 2008, when
he ran for a combined 22 TD's in those first 2
seasons and the breakdown
was much different as only 7 of the 22 TD's were 5 yards
and closer, or 32%. A reverse way of saying it:
- Peterson scored 68%
of his TD's from 6+ yards out in his first 2
seasons (2007-08).
- Only 22% from 6+
last season (2009).
The 2009 Adrian Peterson
was not "creating"
TD's like he used to in 2007 and 2008, he now is
dependent on 1-2-3 yard "gimme" TD's (which push
his Fantasy scoring nicely).
Chris Johnson had a
pretty stout total of 14
rushing TD's in 2009. How he got those TD's is
much different than Peterson:
- Only 5 of CJ's 14
TD's were from 5
yards or less, or 36% (2009). AP had 78% from
with 5 yards in
2009.
- Which means CJ had
9 of his 14
TD's from 6+ yards out, or 64% (2009). AP
with only 22% from 6+ in 2009.
The eye opening stat is that 9
(64%) of
Johnson's 14 rushing TD's were actually from 30 yards and
longer. Which is stunning for a RB to create any
30+ yard TD runs in a season. Then consider how
amazing it is that Chris Johnson had 9 TD's from
30+ yards out in 2009. How amazing is that
achievement?.....
Chris Johnson had 9 TD's from 30+
yards in one season (2009), Adrian Peterson only has 8
rushing TD's from 30+ yards in his entire career
(and most of those in 2007). Jamaal Charles had
more 30+ yard rushing TD's playing in one half
of one season in 2009, than Adrian Peterson has
had in his
last 2 full NFL seasons (08-09). *NOTE Charles
and Johnson both got another one opening day
2010....AP none.
What Adrian Peterson did
in 2009, is similar to what LaDainian Tomlinson,
Willis McGahee, and Thomas Jones do -- commit a
"crime of opportunity". They are not
creating/making TD "opportunity" as much as they
are dependent on it being set up for them (short
yardage)...if that makes sense.
The TD push aside, has
anyone looked at Adrian Peterson's performance
results the last 8 to 16 games?
- In his last 8
regular season games, Adrian Peterson has
had no 100 yard rushing games and has
averaged just 3.7 yards per carry.
- Only two 100+ yard
rushing games in his last 16 regular season
games (1 game played in '10 + last 15 games
in '09).
- Lower rushing
results despite getting the ball 19+ times a
game average in that span.
You can't say "but, the
Defense focuses on Peterson", when Favre is the
QB during that whole last 16 game period.
Perhaps Peterson has hit
a rough patch and will pull out of it, and go
onto to a 2,000 yard rushing season in 2010.
However, the number trends are trying to tell us
there may be an issue with Peterson. Not so much
an issue per say, more that he is maybe over-hyped into
superstardom when he is just "really good".
Adrian Peterson
vs. Pierre Thomas
Pierre Thomas fascinates
and pains me all at the same time. If he was
used like Adrian Peterson, I could pretty much
"set my watch" by him and not worry about it. As
it is, the Saints have Reggie Bush and often
utilize a 3rd RB (last season Mike Bell) in a
"3-headed" monster RB system. Whether I like it
or not, Sean Payton often splits the carries up,
and does have 1 more Super Bowl Ring than I do
(I may have more Fantasy Football titles than
him, but I would trade him that for his Ring).
In a discussion between
Pierre Thomas and Adrian Peterson, there is no
discussion. When is Pierre Thomas ever mentioned
in the same breath as Adrian Peterson? I would
like to advance the theory that Thomas is as
(potentially) good as Adrian Peterson.
To look at this
possibility, I want to equalize their
"opportunity" to some degree. They both entered
the NFL in 2007, but Peterson has had 934
carries in 47 official regular season games
played compared to only 347 carries for Thomas,
Thomas with about 1/3rd of Peterson's career
rushing
"opportunities". To close that gap for
comparison let's only look at games in which
both RB's had 10 or more carries in their games
played. For Thomas that is 19 times, and for
Peterson it is 45 times. Let's compare some key stats
just looking at games they had 10+ carries of
more:
- Peterson 5.0 yards
per carry, Thomas 4.7 ypc. Two of the better
yards per carry averages you will find in
the NFL.
- Thomas 0.95 TD's
per game, Peterson 0.91 TD's per game.
Peterson is known as a "TD-machine", however
Thomas is actually the more likely to score
a TD when both get 10+ carries in a game.
Most all of Peterson's TD's come from
rushing, Thomas about 1/3rd from receiving.
- Peterson 119.7
yards per game (rush+rec), Thomas 100.7
yards per game. Again, 2 of the better you
will find in the NFL as both rushing and
receiving weapons.
- Thomas 0.84 PP-ATT
(FF points per attempt, attempts = carries+receptions), Peterson
0.78 PP-ATT.
Both Thomas and Peterson have had a success
ratio of scoring Fantasy Points per "touch"
or attempt. Thomas has produced more Fantasy
points per touch over Peterson...Thomas just
doesn't "touch" the ball as often. This is
based on a traditional scoring system, the
gap widens in PPR
- For PPR PP-ATT,
Thomas has an amazing 1.01 FF points per
"attempt", and Peterson 0.87 PP-ATT. Thomas
averages scoring over 1 point every time he
touches the ball via run or reception (in
games with 10+ carries).
- Peterson 17.4
overall FF PPG (traditional), Thomas 15.8 FF
PPG. Peterson slightly better per game
Fantasy scoring, but in these 10+ carry
games Peterson still gets 25% more carries
than Thomas does. Peterson with 20.3 carries
a game average to 15.5 for Thomas.
- Peterson 19.3
overall FF PPG (PPR league scoring), Thomas
19.0 FF PPG. Almost identical when you get a
point per reception (PPR).
So who is the better RB?
This look deeper into the stats was not meant to
show one better than the other, but merely that
Pierre Thomas isn't as far behind (if any)
Adrian Peterson as you might think.
Perhaps Thomas wouldn't
hold up to the same level of pounding with more
carries? Thomas does weigh approximately the
same as Peterson though. Maybe Thomas would get
in a "rhythm" with more carries and have even better
results? Thomas has shown he will score even
higher the more carries he gets. In career games with
15 or more carries:
- Thomas 10 TD's (rush+rec)
in 8 games = 1.2 TD's per game (in games
with 15+ carries)
- Peterson 35 TD's (rush+rec)
in 37 games = 0.9 TD's per game (in games
with 15+ carries)
Thursday Night Football,
opening game of 2010, my friend and I both
agreed that Adrian Peterson "looked good"
but, how
much better did he look than Pierre Thomas?...was
anyone watching?
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