Kolb is a former Texas High School elite QB. Recruited by almost all the Big-12 schools. He passed on the Big 12 to go to the University of Houston. Kolb started as a true freshman, and every game thereafter for 4 years. Kolb set most every passing record in the Conference USA, and ended up the 3^rd best total offense QB in NCAA history. Andy Reid saw him early on, and followed his career intently.

Kevin Kolb’s 4-year career as Houston Cougars starting QB: 

Season	QB Rating	Comp%	Yards	TD’s	INT	TD/INT	Notes
2003	153.8	61.1%	3,131	25	6	4.1	Started every game as true freshman
2004	128.8	56.1%	2,766	11	6	1.8	Led conference in Total Offense
2005	133.4	60.5%	3,258	19	15	1.3	10th in Nation in Passing Yards
2006	167.7	67.6%	3,809	30	4	7.5	All-American 2nd Team
TOTAL		61.6%	12,964	85	31	2.7	Ends as 4th all-time in pass yards in all CFB

Reid confirmed his “lust” by drafting him a little higher than expected by the “experts” in the 2007 college draft (bet all those who had JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, and John Beck listed ahead wish they could take that back…). Kolb has sat behind Donovan McNabb for 3 years with the whispers of being the “heir apparent”; sooner rather than later. In very limited playing time in 2008, Kolb threw 4 INT’s in 50 passes in four game appearances. His only main playing time was against a very good Ravens Defense (the game where Donovan McNabb got benched midway), in which Kolb got picked 2 times in 23 attempts in his 2^nd half play vs. the (Rex Ryan) Ravens. Kolb’s 2008 performances left many to wonder, “What’s the big deal about Kevin Kolb”?

In 2009 McNabb goes down in Week One, and in Week Two Kolb gets his first true starts. For his opening act -- Kolb drops 391 passing yards on the Saints (which at the time we didn’t all realize how good the Saint defense was) in a butt kicking Eagle loss, followed by a 327 yard passing performance in a win against the Chiefs in Week 3. Fantasy Football owners began to salivate at these 300+ yard performances, but as soon as everyone got worked up…back came McNabb, and Kolb disappeared.

Now McNabb is gone, and this is Kolb’s team now. This has been the plan for a while. Reid has been high on Kolb pre-Eagle days, and obviously high on him now. The team respects Kolb from all reports, and if you watch the Saints game from 2009 -- you can see he has a great connection with his teammates. Which is wonderful, but “can he actually play”?

I watched all Kolb’s plays from the Saints and Chiefs starts this past season. I really was interested to see how he handled the Saints pressure/Super Bowl caliber D. I expected to see a lot of flaws, but I came away very impressed. You could read the Saints game from a box score perspective, and easily take the “anti-Kolb” route. He did throw for 391 yards, but chunks of that were late as the Eagles lost by 26. He had three picks in the game...two were late. One of the late INT’s was a pick six (Darren Sharper strikes again) on a rookie mistake (late in game, just about out of reach). The other very late one was due to just flinging the ball up for grabs with less than 30 seconds to go and nothing to lose.

The box scores are one thing, but what (I think) I saw that leads me to believe Kolb is going to be good-to-great possibly for Fantasy Football 2010.

1.  He makes all the throws.

Which is a very “football-y” things to say but, I have just watched some tape on Seneca Wallace, Matt Cassel, Jay Cutler and Mark Sanchez in a 48 hour stretch that I also chronicled Kolb’s two starts – Kolb looked like the best of all those QB’s to me (not that they are a great list of QB’s, but I would take him over Sanchez or Cutler to run my team right now). Arm strength isn’t everything but Kolb rivals Cutler (to me) in release and velocity. Take out style of offense, supporting cast etc., just looking at them all and asking – “who is the best QB of the group”? If I knew nothing about them prior – I would say Kevin Kolb is the best most polished/experienced QB of them, on the eyeball test.

2. He was not coddled in the game plan.

I have seen Mark Sanchez (who I am picking on, as I was just was re-watching some of his games too) “handled”. Color-coded wristbands for “risk”, a lot of screens, quick slants and isolated bombs (most not landing). On the other hand, Reid cut Kolb loose right away. Kolb sat back in the pocket or worked designed rollouts – he was “forced”/given liberty to make decisions. Usually good ones, some rookie/dumb ones. He made a lot of passes near the sidelines with velocity that the defenders could not react to. As well, he nailed gaps in the zone over the middle while checking off safeties. He especially used the tight end well. Most rookie (and some veteran) QB’s forget who the tight end is. Brent Celek (Eagles TE) caught 8 passes in each of Kolb’s two starts with 20 Celek targets in those 2 games.

With approximately a minute before half in the Saints game, down by only a score with a young QB in his first start – it would have been easy to take a knee and get the kickoff to start the 2^nd half. Andy Reid didn’t. They went into a “two minute” offense and Kolb marched them right down field with 5 passes of various distance and various targets – just like a great veteran. Kolb got them down to within a 5 yard shot with seconds left before half. The final play in which Kolb wisely overthrew a covered WR -- leaving the Eagles to kick a FG.

3. Kolb did not constantly panic under pressure.

Pressure is not good for any QB, but Kolb took hits and stepped into throws. He occasionally forced balls under duress, like most rookies. But not as bad as I have seen Mark Sanchez or Jay Cutler panic while reviewing 2009 tape this weekend. Kolb’s quick release and velocity helped him hit targets while under duress that many other young (or veteran) QB’s can’t deliver on.

For sure McNabb is the more experienced, polished QB. If you wanted to make a Super Bowl run for just 2010 – maybe you want McNabb. Kolb is going to make some mistakes in 2010 that McNabb wouldn’t. But that is for the NFL – I am more concerned with “who should we draft in Fantasy Football 2010”? I say Kevin Kolb. I’m not saying that to be cute or to be a McNabb “hater”. I absolutely believe, barring injury, that Kolb will score more Fantasy Football points than McNabb in 2010.

This is “fuzzy” math (below), but just to take a look at Kevin Kolb’s 2 starts on per game average basis vs. the 2009 Top QB’s in Yards per game, TD’s per game, and Fantasy Football points per game. Two games against a top Defense (Saints) and not a top D (Chiefs). Is this a taste of what could happen with Kolb and Reid?  

YPG	Pass Yards per game	TDPG	Pass TD’s per game	FF PPG	FF PPG (Games 1-15)
359.0	Kevin Kolb, PHI	2.27	Drew Brees, NO	22.1	Kevin Kolb, PHI
300.0	Peyton Manning, IND	2.20	Peyton Manning, IND	21.2	Aaron Rodgers, GB
298.1	Matt Schaub, HOU	2.12	Brett Favre, MIN	19.5	Drew Brees, NO
292.5	Drew Brees, NO	2.00	Kevin Kolb, PHI	19.2	Peyton Manning, IND
288.5	Ben Roethlisberger, PIT	1.88	Aaron Rodgers, GB	17.5	Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
258.4	Donovan McNabb, PHI	1.60	Donovan McNabb, PHI	17.4	Donovan McNabb, PHI

*McNabb 13.75 games, fractional game for injury.
*Traditional FF scoring (1pt per 25 pass yards, 4 for pass TD, -2 INT, 6 for rush TD, 1pt per 10 rush yards)
*Data based on games (1-15, no game 16)

Watching those two Kolb starts, I saw Andy Reid open up his offense even more than usual. It almost looked like a spread college/Texas Tech type offense at times. I think the 2010 Eagles are going to be a mini-version of the 2009 Saints Offense under Kolb & Reid. A quick paced offense with many weapons to spread it around to. I foresee many Kolb 300+ yard-passing games with 3-4-5 TD’s and some 1-2-3 INT’s. Translation = a lot of Fantasy Football points, regardless of NFL wins.

Kolb is going to be available in The 2011 Fantasy Football Draft around the 7-9th QB rated/taken, when he may be a top 3-5 scorer possibly (for FF). Kolb is going to be a steal in the 2010 Draft. If you buy that, it will give you more freedom in the first 3-4 rounds of the Draft to pass on the “top” rated QB’s, and fill up on RB’s, WR’s, and/or TE first -- landing Kolb, and then even later picking up a veteran QB (for some insurance, just in case…) in later rounds.

7-3-2010 UPDATE

News of pending (and ultimately) Michael Vick’s release by the Eagles only enhances Kolb’s 2010 value. In Kolb’s KC game in 2009, Vick threw 2 passes and had a 7 yard run. Vick would steal about 0.5-1.0+ FF PPG from Kolb in “Wildcat” activity.

 

 

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