In 2009, after the "Big 3" QB's (Rodgers, Brees, P.
Manning) there was a string of seven QB's who all had Fantasy Football PPG
scoring in the 17.0-17.6 FF PPG range (Games 1-15 PPG, no Game 16). Leading the
group of "17's" was Ben Roethlisberger. Roethlisberger actually had more passing
yards per game (again, Games 1-15) than Aaron Rodgers. When you can get a top QB
in the Fantasy Football Draft in the 14-16th overall QB taken -- it seems like a
no brainer. All you have to do is stomach the first 4 games (likely 4, not 6)
that he is suspended. Fantasy Football GM's have been pairing Romo, Schaub,
Rivers, Kolb, etc and taking Big Ben as the "backup" -- which appears like an
incredible depth of talent at QB for their team.
It all seemingly makes sense...but does it?
I am not going to harp on the "Big Ben will be
rusty" aspect, I think that is highly overrated; especially concerning a QB (re:
Favre 2009). I am slightly concerned that the last time Roethlisberger had off
field issues preseason (motor cycle accident 2006) he had his career worst
completion percentage, passer rating and TD/INT ratio (the only time he has
thrown more INT's than TD's). That is a factor, but that's not the angle I am
worried about as much either. The most concerning thing pairing him up with a
Top QB for Fantasy Football, even if I wanted for only one start on a Bye Week,
is the wicked schedule he walks back into after Week 4.
The main reason to get Roethlisberger is he is a
cheap draft value, and you pair him with a top QB and get the relief of slotting
Roethlisberger when Brady, Rivers, Rodgers, Romo, Mannings, Kolb, Schaub etc are
facing Byes and/or an ultra-bad matchup like vs. Jets, 49ers, Saints, Bengals,
Steelers. You will see the way hat it falls for Roethlisberger in 2010, he may
not much needed relief for any top QB for Fantasy Football this season.
WEEK 5 = A Steelers Bye Week so you
have lost the first 5 weeks of the season with Roethlisberger. It makes little
sense to pair Roethlisberger with elite QB Tom Brady who shares this same Bye
Week.
WEEK 6 = Roethlisberger is back
(theoretically) at home vs. CLE. I see the Browns as an improving Defense, but
should be a safe play for Roethlisberger. However, the other elite QB's are NOT
in desperate need of help this week either. You would likely not push a start to
Roethlisberger in Week 6 (his first game back), swapping him in for any of the
projected Top-10+ Fantasy Football ranked QB's for 2010. Roethlisberger does
match up with Carson Palmer's Bye in Week 6, but Palmer is not a Top-10 QB on my
Draft Board. After 6 weeks of the season, behind your elite QB, Roethlisberger
may still be of no help.
Things are about to take a turn for the worse
now. Upcoming is the part of the schedule that scares me on the game plan of
drafting and matching Roethlisberger as an alternate with your elite QB. The
schedule is about to turn really "dark" for the Steelers and Roethlisberger, at
exactly the time you need him to match with Bye Weeks and bad matchups for your
main QB. The Steelers next three games are on the road against tough Pass
Defenses. Looking out further, 5 of next 7 games are on the road. When the
Steelers hit the Fantasy Football playoff patch (Week 14-15) they are back home,
but against perhaps the two toughest Pass D's in the league for 2010 -- the
Bengals and Jets.
WEEK 7 = Road game at Miami, the
Dolphins D improving rapidly in our study. In Week 7, you might play
Roethlisberger ahead of Matt Ryan who faces the Bengals, and maybe over Favre @
GB but that's about it (big maybe). The rest of the "elite" QB's have opponents
easier than the Dolphins project to be.
WEEK 8 = On the road for the 2nd week
in a row; at the Saints. Kolb, Eli, Cutler, Flacco Ryan all go Bye Week and you
have Roethlisberger against the 2nd stingiest Fantasy Football Pass D last
season. Aaron Rodgers really needs help as he goes at the Jets, but
Roethlisberger is no real great help facing the Saints. Roethlisberger is a
really weak option in Week 8 when a bunch of QB's are on their Bye this week.
Jason Campbell vs. the Chiefs is potentially more valuable fill-in than
Roethlisberger against the Saints.
WEEK 9 = Third road game in a row,
and now at the Bengals. McNabb is on his Bye Week, and other than that you
wouldn't likely put Big Ben in for any other top QB in Week 9 with the Steelers
drawing the very tough Bengals D. The Bengals are a top Pass D rated for QB's to
face for Fantasy Football in 2010. Shaky to throw Roethlisberger in for Week 9
under any circumstance.
WEEK 10 = Finally back home after 3
weeks, but now home with the Patriots. Not that Patriots are the greatest rated
Pass D, but it's always scary (to me) to face the Pats/Belichick for
anything. Kolb, Eli, Rodgers go on a Bye, and you would love to have to sit them
for a Bye with the luxury of inserting Roethlisberger against a gimme like
facing the Jags or Chiefs, etc., but Roethlisberger has the Pats. Perhaps you
sit Brady, who obviously has to face the Steelers, for Roethlisberger? Outside
of that Roethlisberger vs. Pats is not major relief to many QB's (except all the
ones on a Bye).
WEEK 11 = Here comes a two week
stretch of gifts, maybe. Roethlisberger @ Raiders seems like an easy one but,
East Coast to West Coast travel is never a gimme for the travelling teams. More
importantly QB's struggled against Oakland last year, why? Because teams could
run all over them, no need to pass. Oakland was a stingy Pass D for FF QB's in
2009. This Raiders matchup for Roethlisberger is likely better than Schaub at
the Jets, but outside of that the elite QB's have a pretty easy schedule too.
Not a given you would force Roethlisberger ahead of any of them this week.
WEEK 12 = Road game with the Bills
should be easy. But the Bills were tough on the pass last year. It was a fluke
of easy schedule I think. However, what if it is crazy Buffalo weather in late
November? Romo has the Saints, so Roethlisberger might be a likely starter for
Romo if you had both. The rest of the elite QB's have easier teams to face as
well. This is maybe the most open week you get to put Roethlisberger in for
anyone, but not a major upgrade matchup except for Romo.
WEEK 13 = 2nd of back-to-back road
games, going at the Ravens. Ravens would be tougher if Foxworth wasn't out for
the season. Perhaps by this time will the Ravens have their CB issue
addressed/upgraded? Brady has the Jets, Flacco has the Steelers, Rodgers has the
49ers. Perhaps Roethlisberger goes in ahead of them, maybe not. Depends upon the
Ravens improvement (or not) at that point.
Weeks 11-12-13 is somewhat your 2010 window with
Ben Roethlisberger. But, there are NOT a ton of scenarios where he fits
"slam-dunk perfect" in front of other elite QB's that same week. After Week 13,
Roethlisberger services are likely no longer needed...
WEEK 14 & 15 = Week 14 vs. Bengals,
and Week 15 vs. the Jets. There is no scenario, barring injury, that you can
make a great case for Roethlisberger to be your starter and sit the likes of
Brady, Rivers, Kolb, Cutler, Manning, etc. The Bengals and Jets are too likely
to hold a QB's Fantasy Football scoring down.
WEEK 16 = always a crazy week,
Steelers may be out of the playoffs at that point (I think they will be) so who
knows what Big Ben can offer at this point. If playing, Roethlisberger has the
Panthers who have not been easy with, or without, Julius Peppers. Cutler faces
the Jets, Rivers is at the Bengals. Other than those 2 situations I can't see
where Roethlisberger is a smart play ahead of other elite QB matchups. But, it
is Week 16 so you never know who all is playing for stuff or not. Week 16-17 is
throw logic out the door and pray.
Looking at all of the combinations,
Roethlisberger's matchups lineup best with Aaron Rodgers. However it's not
super-strong. Besides the Week 10 Bye for Rodgers, likely a Aaron Rodgers owner
would not bump him for Roethlisberger at any other point in the 2010 schedule.
Roethlisberger matched as a backup with an elite
QB, is really not as smart a strategy as you would initially think.
Roethlisberger matched up with a mediocre/young QB
like a Jason Campbell, Matthew Stafford, Chad Henne, etc is probably the better
way to play Roethlisberger -- if you are forced into a situation where you have
a mediocre as a starter; and that is scary enough. Thinking Roethlisberger will
come in and save the day from a mediocre QB, with his complicated schedule upon
return, I don't know that I love that strategy either.
The best way to play Ben Roethlisberger for Fantasy
Football 2010:
- Draft him very late
- Have no intention on him being your starting
QB at any point, but he's there if an injury hits your top/solid starter
- Have every intention on trading/dumping him to
another Fantasy Football GM who has an underperforming/panic QB situation
(Flacco will be down right about the same time Roethlisberger comes back).
- The media will help you as they turn all their
attention to the "Roethlisberger as savior" story in Week 4-5; especially if
PITT starts out 1-3, 2-2 in the 2010 season..
Treat Ben Roethlisberger like a great short term
speculation stock investment. Buy low at the Fantasy Football Draft, sell high
Week 4-5 before he ever suits up.
Have questions you
would like to see researched?, or would like to tell us we
are full of crap?
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