The scenario of Favre out, and Tavaris Jackson/Sage Rosenfels in has a major effect on the receiving core; most notably on Sidney Rice and Visanthe Shiancoe. In my conversations today, the talk mainly focused on how Sidney Rice would be effected -- but there are so many other variables in play as well.

I went back and tried to research all the situations I could find where:

• a great/good QB was injured for most/all of the season, replaced by a backup, then returned the following season.
• a great/good QB left (via trade, free agency) and was replaced by a "weak" QB
• the impact of the QB change on the top WR (on team, and in NFL)
• more recent history, within the last 5-6 seasons.

There are not as many instances in recent history as I thought. Most situations were outside of what I was looking for. For example a bad QB replaces bad QB quite often. A good QB replaces good QB occasionally (Brees/Rivers, Favre/Rodgers, Bledsoe/Brady, etc). Sometimes there is just no change at all, the same good QB is at the helm for a long time. Rarely does a good/great QB just suddenly vanish and is replaced by a very weak QB.

Some of these following scenarios may be arguable, but I think they are a pretty decent correlation. The situations I found intriguing:

2008 = Tom Brady injured game one, and replaced with Matt Cassel for the rest of the season

Cassel wasn't awful in 2008, but he's definitely not in Tom Brady's class. Was it the Patriots/Belichick system that carried Cassel in 2008, or not? One thing we can tell is that the change from Brady to Cassel had an effect on Randy Moss. Below is a look at Randy Moss before and after Brady's 2008 injury season. Note: Scoring based on receiving stats only (no rushing).

FF (Trad) PPG	FF PPR PPG	Season	R.Moss w/ QB	Games	Rec	Yards	TD
18.0	24.1	2007	Tom Brady	16	98	1493	23
10.4	14.7	2008	Matt Cassel	16	69	1008	11
12.8	18.0	2009	Tom Brady	16	83	1264	13

Randy Moss did not perform poorly in 2008, he just wasn't his usual Fantasy Football "superstar" self. Randy Moss is obviously an all-time great, but when a WR gets paired with a mediocre or bad QB, performance is likely to come down. In Moss's case about a 33% drop in 2008 with Cassel as opposed to Moss's average of  2007 and 2009 performances with Brady.

The performance drop was not just contained to Randy Moss, it also affected the other key Patriots WR Wes Welker.

FF (Trad) PPG	FF PPR PPG	Season	W.Welker w/ QB	Games	Rec	Yards	TD
10.3	17.3	2007	Tom Brady	16	112	1175	8
8.4	15.3	2008	Matt Cassel	16	111	1165	3
11.3	20.1	2009	Tom Brady	14	123	1348	4

Welker had a great 2008 season with Cassel, 111 catches and 1,165 yards, but Welker's Fantasy Football performance declined approx. 15-20% with Cassel versus the 2-year average with Brady.

2008 = Carson Palmer injured most of early season, replaced by Ryan Fitzpatrick after Week 4

Palmer was hobbled with his injury and only played 4 games before being replaced. The situation took a performance toll on Bengals top WR Chad Johnson/OchoCinco.

FF (Trad) PPG	FF PPR PPG	Season	OchoCinco w/ QB	Games	Rec	Yards	TD
12.0	17.8	2007	Carson Palmer	16	93	1440	8
6.0	10.1	2006	Ryan Fitzpatrick	13	53	540	4
9.9	14.4	2008	Carson Palmer	16	72	1047	9

OchoCinco had an approx. 33-40% Fantasy Football scoring drop away from Palmer.

It wasn't great for Bengals WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh either. In analyzing T.J., the view is 2006 and 2007 with Carson Palmer, and then 2008 with Fitzpatrick. In 2009, Houshmandzadeh left for Seattle so it is not statistically relevant for comparing. You will see T.J.'s normal pattern with Palmer, and then a drop-off with Fitzpatrick.

FF (Trad) PPG	FF PPR PPG	Season	Houshmandzadeh w/ QB	Games	Rec	Yards	TD
11.6	18.0	2006	Carson Palmer	14	90	1081	9
11.6	18.6	2007	Carson Palmer	16	112	1143	12
7.6	13.8	2006	Ryan Fitzpatrick	15	92	904	4

T.J. Houshmandzadeh had a consistent rhythm with Carson Palmer, and then an approx. 30-35% drop in Fantasy scoring with Ryan Fitzpatrick.

2007 = Jake Delhomme hurt in 2007, giving way to a mix of Vinny Testaverde, David Carr and Matt Moore

Back when Jake Delhomme was a good/top QB, he had a great football/statistical relationship with WR Steve Smith. Delhomme was hurt in 2007, and the Panthers shuffled in multiple QB's led by Vinny Testaverde.

FF (Trad) PPG	FF PPR PPG	Season	S.Smith w/ QB	Games	Rec	Yards	TD
11.8	17.7	2006	Jake Delhomme	14	83	1166	8
9.5	15.3	2007	Delhomme, Carr, Testaverde, Moore	15	87	1002	7
12.7	18.3	2008	Jake Delhomme	14	78	1421	6

Steve Smith's Fantasy Football scoring dipped 15-20% when the Panthers 2007 QB carousel was forced upon him.

2009 = Jeff Garcia leaves the Buccaneers after the 2008 season, replaced by 3 other QB's in 2009

Jeff Garcia was a top QB in his time, a very good QB into his mid-30's in 2006-08. He was with Tampa Bay in 2007-08. In 2008 Antonio Bryant was brought in from San Francisco and became the Bucs/Garcia's top WR target. When Garcia left after 2008, he was replaced by Josh Johnson, Byron Leftwich and Josh Freeman. Antonio Bryant was a Top 20 WR in 2008, but "not so much" in 2009 without Garcia.

FF (Trad) PPG	FF PPR PPG	Season	A.Bryant w/ QB	Games	Rec	Yards	TD
10.4	15.6	2008	Jeff Garcia	16	83	1248	7
6.5	9.5	2009	Freeman, Leftwich, J.Johnson	13	39	600	4

Antonio Bryant experienced an approx. 30% reduction in Fantasy performance switching from Jeff Garcia in 2008 to the "hodge-podge" of "iffy" Tampa Bay QB's in 2009.

2005 = Drew Bledsoe leaves Buffalo for Dallas in 2005, replaced by Kelly Holcomb

Drew Bledsoe was a pretty good stat producing QB throughout his career. In 2002 he left New England for Buffalo. The Bills top WR, for about 8 seasons during the late 90's and into the 2000's, was Eric Moulds. Moulds had one of the top seasons of his career upon Bledsoe's arrival in 2002. The view below is the 2003 and 2004 seasons performance leading into the 2005 decline with Kelly Holcomb taking over.

FF (Trad) PPG	FF PPR PPG	Season	E. Moulds w/ QB	Games	Rec	Yards	TD
6.5	11.4	2003	Drew Bledsoe	13	64	780	1
8.4	13.9	2004	Drew Bledsoe	16	88	1043	5
7.0	12.4	2005	Kelly Holcomb	15	81	816	4

Eric Moulds was a really good WR for the Bills for a decade. His Fantasy numbers dropped approx. 15% with the switch to Kelly Holcomb versus the prior two years with Drew Bledsoe.

In all the examples above, the "top" WR on these teams had their fantasy performance drop somewhere between 15-30+% when they went from good/great QB to the "weaker"  rookie/journeyman-type QB. Many of the WR's still had very good seasons with the weak/fill-in QB's, but just not as great as their past/present performances with their high-level QB. Below is a tally of the (above) top WR's in their seasons with the good/great QB, versus the season where it skipped to the "weak" QB" on injury/trade/free agency etc.

PPG Chg	PPG w/ the "replacement" QB	PPG w/ good-great QB	FF scoring system
-3.2  (-28%)	8.2	11.4	Traditional Fantasy Football scoring
-4.0  (-23%)	13.4	17.4	PPR Fantasy Football scoring

I did not cherry pick the list/options to find the situations that fit the theory. Honestly, I went through looking for recent QB injury scenarios where they missed most/all of a season and a "weak" backup(s) took over. Once I identified those situations I looked at the top WR/TE's to see what happened to performance before and after. Sometimes the QB was hurt, but the receivers left via trade/free agency -- so no comparison. Rarely did a top QB miss an entire season, to be replaced by a "weak" QB. It is not an event that occurs that often. Typically good QB's ride off into the sunset as performance begins to slip. It is unusual for a QB at his peak to suddenly be gone for a season (like Brady in 2008), requiring an emergency fill-in. In the circumstances I found, there was always a WR statistical performance drop-off.

If a WR drop-off is almost a statistical certainty, when a top QB is instantly replaced with a weak QB, then there is a decent probability that the performances of the key Vikings receivers will be effected by the QB drop-off from Favre. i.e. Sidney Rice, Percy Harvin, Bernard Berrian, and Visanthe Shiancoe. If we factor a 25% drop of their 2009 numbers, for a 2010, it would project the following for traditional and PPR scoring:

*2009 PPG's are Games 1-15, no Game 16. Includes receiving and rushing totals (not KR points).

PPG Chg on 25% drop	PPG FF (Trad) '10	PPG FF (Trad) '09	Vikings WR
-2.6	7.7	10.3	Sidney Rice
-2.1	6.5	8.6	Percy Harvin
-1.8	5.3	7.1	Visanthe Shiancoe
-1.4	4.4	5.8	Bernard Berrian

PPG Chg on 25% drop	PPG FF (PPR) '10	PPG FF (PPR) '09	Vikings WR
-3.8	11.6	15.4	Sidney Rice
-3.1	9.3	12.4	Percy Harvin
-2.6	7.8	10.4	Visanthe Shiancoe
-2.4	7.2	9.6	Bernard Berrian

Maybe Favre retires, maybe he doesn't. All this research will not be in vain as there is a 2010 scenario this definitely fits -- Larry Fitzgerald from Kurt Warner to Matt Leinart. Do you think Larry Fitzgerald is too elite a WR to drop-off that far? Look back to the top of the article on Randy Moss. Moss with Cassel in 2008 = 10.4 Traditional PPG, and 14.7 PPR PPG. Similar to what you are going to see on the math on Larry Fitzgerald below.

PPG Chg on 25% drop	PPG FF (Trad) '10	PPG FF (Trad) '09	Cardinals WR
-3.2	9.6	12.8	Larry Fitzgerald
PPG Chg on 25% drop	PPG FF (PPR) '10	PPG FF (PPR) '09	Cardinals WR
-4.9	14.6	19.5	Larry Fitzgerald

By the way, Larry Fitzgerald has been paired with Matt Leinart as the starting QB 11 times in his career with his average Fantasy Football traditional scoring = 8.2 PPG.

The impact of an elite QB just dropping out "on top of his game" is rare. However, we may have two instances of it in 2010 with Kurt Warner, and now Brett Favre. Warner and Favre are difference-making, Hall-of-Fame QB's. Logically you cannot expect the performances of the associated WR's to stay on the highest level with a drop down to Tavaris Jackson, Sage Rosenfels, and Matt Leinart filling in. Favre and Warner have a combined 705 Passing TD's to 445 INT's. Jackson, Rosenfels, Leinart have a combined 65 TD's and 67 INT's. There is no comparison logically, and there definitely isn't one historically and statistically.

The key WR and TE Fantasy Football performances are coming down without Warner and Favre, dropping to Leinart and T.Jackson/Rosenfels. Will you fight history, or adjust accordingly?

 

 

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