Matt Cassel was likely undrafted in most 10-12 team Fantasy leagues. If so, he was sent immediately to the bench, followed by dropped with in the first 2-3 weeks. Suddenly Cassel caught fire, a couple 3 TD games early and mid-season and then dropped two 4 TD passing games in the past 3 weeks...and suddenly Cassel is the hottest thing in Fantasy QBs.

Weeks ago Cassel's name started popping out of my computer with a developing upward trend. It caught my attention, but as I looked at it deeper I got cold feet for a stretch run pickup. Now Cassel is burning hot for Fantasy and I may be the only dissenter right now.

My closer look at the Cassel 2010 data leads me to 3 points on why Cassel may be a bad assumption as a "hot" Fantasy QB pickup right now:

1) Cassel still doesn't throw that often, nor for many yards

When I want a Fantasy QB, or when I a scrambling for a Fantasy QB...I want a QB who is throwing the ball a lot. Simple theory, the more throws the more likely outcome of Fantasy points (yards, TDs). Cassel just doesn't throw the ball that much. When I look at the current QBs pass attempts per game, there is a top-tier and middle-tier, and then 3 QBs who aren't near those tiers. When I say QBs, I mean those considered on Fantasy teams...not Jason Campbell, Troy Smith, etc. The QBs to analyze Cassel with are ones who have started all along (or mostly all along) who are probably on a Fantasy team now or next to be considered for pickup. The 3 QB's that are way off everyone else in pass attempts per game:

1. 26.2 pass attempts per game = Garrard, JAC
2. 29.4 per game = Cassel, KC
3. 29.7 per game = Freeman, TB

All QBs this entire season average about 33 throws a game, the upper level QBs throw the ball 35 times a game on average. Drew Brees, Shaun Hill, Peyton Manning throw it 40+ times a game. The more throws, the better the likelihood of Fantasy scoring...in theory. Figure 0.4 to 0.5 Fantasy points come with every pass attempt on average. Six less pass attempts per game might be sacrificing 2-3 Fantasy points per game on average.

Even with less throws, if you have big results with it...then that's OK. However, the QBs who throw the least, also have the lowest yards per game (again, among the relevant QBs).

1. 192.4 passing yards per game = Garrard, JAC
2. 205.5 per game = Freeman, TB
3. 209.7 per game = Cassel, KC

The logical question from there for me was..."well yes overall weak, but Cassel is coming on strong now...". Which leads me to point #2 after deeper study....no he is not coming on as strong as we think.

 

2) Cassel passing activity is stagnant, not rising of late

Much of Cassel's amazing rise is coming off his 4-TD/469 passing yards game in Week-10 in which the Chiefs were humiliated by the Broncos in the famous Todd Haley not shaking hands game. In that game Denver came out and smoked KC. Instead of rolling over, Haley kept Cassel in and had him throw 53 times, 17 more times than any other time this season. For a comparison let's throw that game out and look at Cassel's first 5 Games vs. his last 5 games (again throw out the DEN anomaly):

• Week 1-6 Cassel had 27.0 pass attempts per game, Weeks 7-12 (minus Week-10) he had 27.0 pass attempts per game. No change.
• Week 1-6 Cassel had 170.2 passing yards per game, Weeks 7-12 (minus Week-10) he had 197.4 passing yards per game. A +27.2 yards per game pace, but still 197.4 passing yards per game is pathetic...for a front-line QB.

By comparison, another low attempt QB that I like the data better on is David Garrard. Look at his same trend, and to be fair let's throw his best game out Week-8 vs. Dallas where he had 4 TDs as well. His comparisons:

• Week 1-6 Garrard had 23.3 pass attempts per game, Weeks 7-12 (minus Week-8) he had 33.3 pass attempts per game. A +10.0 pass attempts per game change.
• Week 1-6 Garrard had 152.4 passing yards per game, Weeks 7-12 (minus Week-8) he had 243.3 passing yards per game. A +90.9 yards per game jump up to 243.3 throwing like a "real" QB.

Not only is Garrard's upswing of late been greater (taking out each QBs "top" game), Garrard also has run for more yards (a hidden Garrard Fantasy scoring threat is his running) than Cassel and has 3 rushing TDs in 2010, to none for Cassel.

 

3) Upcoming critical weeks schedule

In the last 2 Weeks, Garrard has struggled and Cassel has soared. One thing to always consider is strength of opponent faced. Garrard had been rocketing up the Fantasy charts the last 5-8 weeks as well as Cassel, Garrard tore up DAL, HOU, BUF more recently...who couldn't tear them up? Suddenly the last 2 weeks vs. NYG and CLE, Garrard has stumbled.

Cassel has been on fire too...against DEN, SEA, ARI, BUF, HOU, JAC. Cassel/KC has had the absolute easiest schedule of opponents of anyone in 2010, and Cassel has taken advantage of it. The issue is, after this week (13)...that all ends.

Week-14 @ SD= San Diego recently humiliated Peyton Manning, along with most QBs they have faced in 2010. Cassel isn't throwing for 4 TDs against SD in Week-14. Earlier this year Cassel threw for 68 yards in a game vs. SD with 1 TD.

Week-15 @ STL = The Rams aren't great, but they are step above the "patsies" the Chiefs have been facing.

Week-16 vs. TEN = The Titans are an OK Pass-D, but again...definitely better than the lower-level D's Cassel is used to facing.

Cassel has faced 4 mid-level or upper-level defenses this season (SD, SF, CLE, IND). In those 4 games, Cassel's stats are:

• 26.5 pass attempts per game
• 54.7% Completion pct
• 1.0 TDs per game, 0.8 INTs per game
• 162.5 passing yards per game
• 9.4 Fantasy PPG (4pt per pass TD)

Matt Cassel is a classic mediocre QB, made better by his schedule of opponents. After Week-13 with Denver, he actually has to face real defenses. When he does, don't be shocked if Cassel goes right back to his usual 180-200 passing yards with 1 TD. Minus the crazy Denver game in Week-10, Cassel is averaging 183.8 passing yards per game and 14.6 Fantasy points per game.

Be careful thinking you've uncovered a late season gem here, I think it is a false reading. As Cassel's schedule gets tougher, Garrard gets OAK, IND, WAS. If I had to bet on one or the other down the stretch, I'd take Garrard.

 

 

Select a position from the tabs below to see stats and scouting information for that respective position.

• 
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 
•