In one very important (to me) league I am in, Aaron Rodgers has been carrying me nicely since I acquired him in Week-5. Of course, last week/Week-14 was the first round of our playoffs...just in time for his injury game. Despite Rodgers 2.3 FF points -- Michael Turner, Brandon Jacobs, and Ahmad Bradshaw carried me to victory (and my opponent with Carson Palmer at QB helped too). It's awesome/lucky that I won, but...what do I do if Aaron Rodgers is out this week? You may be in the same place -- a mediocre/questionable (or no) backup, and seemingly not much out there to pickup from. What to do? Here are likely available QBs to consider:

First let's look at the hottest QBs over the past 8 weeks in PPG (Week-7 to Week-14, minimum 3 games played):

1. 28.0 = Vick, PHI
2. 21.4 = Rodgers, GB (last week counted as 0.5 games played)
3. 21.3 = Brady, NE
4. 18.9 = Cassel, KC
5. 18.5 = Garrard, JAC
6. 17.9 = Brees, NO
7. 17.8 = Flacco, BAL
8. 16.5 = Ryan, ATL
9. 16.4 = Roethlisberger, PIT
10. 16.0 = Schaub, HOU
11. 15.9 = Kitna, DAL
12. 15.8 = Manning, IND
13. 15.4 = Fitzpatrick, BUF
14. 15.4 = Hill, DET
15. 15.2 = Freeman, TB

The likely surprises and/or available in your 12-team league are Garrard, Kitna, Freeman, and Fitzpatrick. Let's take a closer look at them in order of most attractive metrics to me for Week-15 ONLY:

#1) Jon Kitna, DAL -- what I like about Kitna'smetrics is that he is throwing the ball 32.6 times per game, only Fitzpatrick is throwing the ball more of this group (34.4). The last 3 games Kitna has thrown the ball 34.3 times per game. Kitna is completing 65.9% of his passes on the season -- which trails just Brees, Rivers, Manning and Brady...not a bad group, and barely behind all of them except Brees who has jumped to 69.0%.

Kitna's comfort level with the offense is growing, he is running the ball a bunch to pick some extra bonus FF points, and the best thing is -- he is facing Washington at home this week. Favorable weather and facing a defense devastated by injury. Kitna not only is a viable temp starter for Rodgers, I would put him in ahead of Roethlisberger vs. Jets. Possibly over Brees (in the cold) vs. the Ravens. The Cowboys are going to continue to pass and show off the offense with Jason Garrett at the helm still "interviewing".

#2) David Garrard, JAC-- Garrard has been a hot/quiet Fantasy scoring QB, but the small fear for me is that he has been living off of rushing TDs for this Fantasy scoring, with 3 rushing TDs in the last 6 games. That's great, but I want more passing...and Garrard has been doing less passing of late with just 20.5 pass attempts in his last 2 games as the run game has taken off. With less passing comes less yardage, Garrard has just 149.0 passing yards per game in his last 3 games.

I still love Garrard as a Fantasy QB, I am just seeing signs that the Jags passing game is slowing down. A shootout this week could perk me back up on him, but a fear of the Jags running 50 times against the terrible Colts Run-D has me afraid on the other hand. Last game vs. Indy in a Week-4 win, Garrard passed the ball just 22 times for 149 yards, did have 2 passing TDs and a rushing TD for 24.9 points; again with the rushing TD to be an elite scorer. That running threat makes Garrard viable for Fantasy, but if he doesn't get a rushing TD his Fantasy scoring could be limited.

#3) Josh Freeman, TB-- Freeman has been a solid, but not spectacular performer all season...and maybe you want/need that this week. Freeman only has one single digit FF game all season (only Brady and Brees can claim none in 2010).  Garrard has 3, Fitzpatrick has 2 and Kitna has 1 (in partial season) single digit FF games this season YTD.

The thing I don't like about Freeman is, he is not improving (Fantasy-wise). In the first 7 weeks this season, Freeman has 14.6 FF PPG on 33.2 pass attempts per game and 209.2 yards passing per game. In his last 7 weeks, Freeman has 15.0 FF PPG on 27.3 pass attempts (down over 20%) and 207.6 yards passing per game. He has been stagnant or consistent, depending upon how you want to look at it. 

Freeman faces Detroit this week, notorious for allowing big running games and thus no need for heavy passing -- which is right up Freeman/TB's game plan....and not good for Fantasy scoring from Freeman. I'd go Kitna and Garrard over Freeman all day.

#4) Ryan Fitzpatrick, BUF -- Overall Fitzpatrick has been solid, but if you look closer -- his numbers are dwindling back to "normal" (for him). The first 6 games he played, he was awesome -- 19.1 FF PPG, 37.8 pass attempts per game, 249.8 passing yards per game, 2.2 passing TDs per game...he was a revelation. Then as Fantasy GMs got onto him, he started to come apart (as we noted was going to happen based on the opponent/weather and trending) in his last 5 games -- dropping to 13.2 FF PPG (a -5.9 PPG decline), 30.2 pass attempts per game (a 20%+ decline), and down to 205.4 passing yards per game (down -44.4 yards per game) and a fall off to 1.6 passing TDs per game.

The opponents have gotten tougher, defenses have figured him out, and watching tape of him during the "hot streak" -- he wasn't as good as his numbers were saying. He lost his best WR weapon (Roscoe Parrish) and now just lost his best overall WR (Lee Evans). Steve Johnson (I think) is a myth to be exposed, he will not handle #1 CBs on him (like Mario Manningham couldn't when Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith were gone for the Giants). WR devastation, declining numbers overall...and now facing an excellent Miami defense this week that has a lot to play for. No thanks on Fitzpatrick as my Rodgers temp fill in, or over most QB this week.

 

 

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