*An on-going series of putting college QBs in our mathematical analysis. We don’t have all the needed data until the 2011 NFL Combine results, but we can assume some of it (for now) and we have all the game performance/statistics.

See this link for details on the College QB rating system -- Predicting the Unpredictable…Projecting a College QB to the NFL with a Mathematical Formula

 

My bias going into pre-study on Ryan Mallett, is that I thought that he might be the best College QB prospect for 2011. I remember him being a good size, throwing a nice ball, remembered big stats. I left the statistical study not as impressed...and definitely not our mathematical system's #1 rated college QB prospect translated for the NFL.

The biggest red-flag so far on Ryan Mallett in our algorithm is the high tendency for interceptions, as well as suspect performance in bigger games/tougher opponents.

Mallett fades against the better competition

The overall numbers look awesome! 3,869 passing yards and 32 TDs to 12 INTs...what's not to love? I fell out of love quickly when I saw how the splits of his performance played out.

Mallett vs. his weakest competition = Tennessee Tech, Louisiana-Monroe, UTEP, and Vandy (2-10):

• 14 TDs and 1 INT

• 11.8 yards per pass attempt

• a Passing TD every 8.0 pass attempts

Mallett vs. his strongest competition = Alabama, LSU, South Carolina, Ohio State:

• 7 TDs and 7 INTs

• 9.1 yards per pass attempt

• a Passing TD every 23.0 pass attempts

Elite QBs tend to produce passing metrics (TDs and INTs per Pass Attempt, Comp Pct, etc) at around the same rate facing tougher competition as they do the weaker, maybe a slight dip -- and some (usually the future elite's) even improve their metrics facing greater competition when we study their final year performances...but Mallett wilted. Future bust QBs tend to have the same metrics pattern of falling off against "real" competition, as Mallett has.

If I was going to take an easy comparison, looking at a 2011 draft eligible QB from the same SEC conference, making a comparison of 2 QBs facing the same exact competition -- I would take Cam Newton over Mallett in a heartbeat based on similar comps. Look at Mallett vs. Newton with common SEC opponents Alabama, LSU, South Carolina and Ole Miss:

• Newton 9 Passing TDs and 0 INTs

• Mallett 6 Passing TDs and 7 INTs

Against all/any SEC teams with a winning record Newton and Mallett faced in 2010:

• Newton 66.2% Comp Pct, Mallett at 64.8%

• Newton a TD pass every 11.0 Pass Attempts, Mallett with one every 13.8 Pass Attempts

• Newton an INT every 102.1 Pass Attempts, Mallett with one every 23.6 Pass Attempts

 

Interception prone?

Looking at just key games/tougher opponents, and weighing the numbers based on strength of opponent -- Mallett makes a dubious Top-5 list in our system for "Adjusted (for strength of opponent) INTs per Pass Attempt". Based on QB's we have input that were drafted in the past 5 years, in key games/tougher opponents/winning records only:

1. 12.2 INTs per Pass in "adjusted" key games = Jevan Snead, Ole Miss

2. 14.5 = Zac Robinson, Oklahoma State

3. 18.0 = Colt Brennan, Hawaii

4. 22.1 = Caleb Hanie, Colorado State

5. 22.8 = Ryan Mallett, Arkansas

The future NFL elite QBs of this decade (Brady, Manning, etc) averaged 35-50+ Pass Attempts for every INT in their final college season. QB's with issues score under 25 attempts per INT in their final college season.

 

The QB Ryan Mallett most compares to statistically...

Mallett's passing metrics in college most matchup with Matthew Stafford, which is a tough NFL QB to gage...however, I think that makes sense. Stafford at times has looked great in bursts in the NFL. Big arm and gets the ball downfield, kinda like Mallett's M.O. At the same time, a little erratic and prone to an INT while trying to use the big arm to force the ball into places that NFL CBs won't allow it to go. Overall jury is out on Stafford, many see the potential of a good/great QB someday -- I think that analysis stands for Mallett as well. The right system, the right coach and Mallett can break through to be good in the NFL...but he's not a ultra-talented enough to overcome bad coaching or mediocre receivers through his sheer talent and will.

The other comparison that popped up off and on for Mallett was JaMarcus Russell, and that's not good. Another big arm, but INT prone QB. Mallett's college numbers in our system are better than Russell's, but they have a few things in common that would scare me.

• "Adj" means just key games/better competition -- weighted for strength of opponent

• "per 35 att" numbers are the key games, weighted for strength of opponent and then translated into an average as if every QB had an equal 35 Pass Attempts per game all the time, and thus what would each QB produce if they had 35 passes per game based on the key games their final college season.

QB	Yr	College	H	W	adj Comp Pct	Adj Yds per Comp	adj Pass per TD	adj Pass Per INT		Yds per game 35 Att	TDs per game 35 Att	INTs per game 35 Att
Mallett, Ryan	2010	Arkansas	78.8	248	60.5%	15.0	16.0	22.8		316.7	2.2	1.5
Stafford, Matt	2008	Georgia	74.3	225	58.5%	13.8	18.6	25.8		283.0	1.9	1.4
Russell, JaMarcus	2006	LSU	77.5	256	60.6%	12.8	28.3	28.3		270.9	1.2	1.2

 

Ryan Mallett Overall Score = 0.738 (see historical rating chart via link to original study QB = College QB Vers 1.0_2-17-2011.htm)

 

I painted a fairly negative picture of Mallett. I should step back from that a bit and talk about some positives, because the picture is not as bleak as it would seem. Mallett has some excellent numbers showing ability to get the ball downfield for big plays and a TD proficiency. I love the deep ball threat he poses. The Top-10 Yards per Completion in key games/tougher competition of our QBs of the last decade of the 60+ we have researched so far:

1. 17.8 yards per completion = Ryan Leaf, Washington State

2. 15.6 = Michael Vick, Va Tech

3. 14.9 = Ryan Mallett, Arkansas

4. 14.7 = Cam Newton, Auburn

5. 14.7 = Drew Olson, UCLA

6. 14.3 = Matt Stafford, Georgia

7. 14.2 = JaMarcus Russell, LSU

8. 14.0 = Vince Young, Texas

9. 13.8 = Kevin Kolb, Houston

10. 13.8 = Sam Bradford, Oklahoma

Mallett looks like he can be good at best, not great. We are assuming some data at a "safe" level with the Wonderlic scores and physical measurements right now that won't be official for a few weeks. Once we have the official NFL Combine stats will see if this holds up. As with all QBs, if Mallett blows the Wonderlic...he will fall even further in our scoring system.

Late Note = Reports are that Mallett came into the Combine a little overweight/out-of-shape. A questions persist on his "off field issues". I can't really quantify that, I only look at the hard data. However, this "work ethic" issue would scare me as Mallett is becoming known as making bad decisions, and our data's red-flag on his passing metrics are that he is high-interception prone -- which is a form of "on field" bad decision making.

 

 

 

Select a position from the tabs below to see stats and scouting information for that respective position.

• 
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 
•