*An on-going series of putting college QBs in our mathematical analysis. We don’t have all the needed data until the 2011 NFL Combine results, but we can assume some of it (for now) and we have all the game performance/statistics.

See this link for details on the College QB rating system -- Predicting the Unpredictable…Projecting a College QB to the NFL with a Mathematical Formula

Jake Locker, Washington - NFL Draft 2011

For the life of me, I don't know what anyone sees in Jake Locker as an NFL QB....

I think it is the trap that many fall in -- the trap of the "mobile" QB with a "big arm", a few "highlight" clips of "cool" plays...and off we go, excited about the physical. Physical is great, but can he play QB? Can he play QB at the NFL level and succeed? The passing red-flags jump out right away on Jake Locker, whether you look at his horrendous (for a supposed 1st Round draft pick QB) 2010 college season...or his less-worse 2009 season.

A red-flag in our system is in a QB's final season -- any bad/low passing metrics in their key games/tougher opponents tally or an historical bad physical metric (small height, high weight, arm/hand size). Our bad metric/red-flags are a statistical/data driven one -- if a college QB has that bad mark, it matches with a database of QBs we've studied who had the same "red-flag(s)" and ultimately that QB didn't make it to the NFL or played in the NFL but wasn't any good. Future elite NFL QBs mostly have zero red-flags in our college analysis, at most they have one. Two red-flags knocks a QB out of good/elite ratings and into a questionable rating. 3 or more is pretty much doom.

7 QBs, of the 60+ we have studied in our algorithm predicting college performance to pro success, have as many "red-flags" as Jake Locker does (3.5). They would be:

• Tim Tebow, Florida

• Dan LeFevour, Central Michigan

• David Greene, Georgia

• Brody Croyle, Alabama

• Max Hall, BYU

• John Skelton, Fordham

• Rex Grossman, Florida

Does anyone see any future superstar QBs there?

There are 9 other QBs we have studied who have more red-flags than Jake Locker, of the 9 -- only David Garrard has amounted to anything. Next would probably be Derek Anderson and then a parade of nowhere QBs (and Colt McCoy, too soon to tell). A total of 16 QB with high red-flag counts and David Garrard is their major success story. This is not that kinda of crowd you want to keep company with for comparisons for becoming a future NFL QB.

Locker's red-flags are so obvious, you have to chuckle at the discussion of him being a first rounder. Keep in mind, smart NFL teams love for you or I, or Mel Kiper or Todd McShay to think they "love" a guy like Jake Locker. Weak organizations will lap this "misinformation" up and possibly reach and waste a pick on Locker...leaving the players the smart teams really want, still on the board as someone else just wasted their pick on Locker. It is a smart business maneuver. It is probably what got Denver to leap on Tim Tebow in 2010, due to the buzz from Patriots camp on how they "loved" Tebow. Locker is that name in play now to dupe weaker organizations...like Jimmy Clausen and Tim Tebow were last year, used as "hype" pawns. Locker is a dud and most smart NFL execs (I think) know it -- they are just hoping a dumb organization will bite on it. Clausen was a top-5 projected pick at this stage (2 months pre-draft) in 2010, only to become a late 2nd Round pick for Carolina...one that John Fox didn't want.

Why is Jake Locker so bad looking ahead to the NFL? Let's look at some of the major red-flags he has accumulated...

Perpetually less than 60% Completion Percentage

Locker has had amazing inaccuracy passing, and he has his whole career. Looking at just 2010, the highlights of his inaccuracies are as follows:

• Locker played 12 games total in 2010, with only 6 games over 60% Completion Percentage (60%+ a key metric for a future elite QB)...and 2 of those 6 games he did hit 60%+, he was exactly at 60.0%. Locker was "accurate" in just 50% of his games last season, historically future elite QBs will exceed that 60% level in 75-80%+ of their games played.

• We have focused our study of Locker to 8 key game/stronger-winning record opponents -- in those 8 games, Locker had 60%+ Comp Pct in just 3 of those 8 games. By contrast Tom Brady had 6 of 7 key games over 60%, Sam Bradford 7 of 9 key games, and Ben Roethlisberger 8 of 8 key games all over 60.0% completion percentage per game. Locker did it in just 3 of 8 games this past season.

• Locker's "amazing" (facetiously said...) 2009 season -- where he "should have come out to be a # 1 draft pick" according to most...12 games played and only 4 games over 60.0%...and 1 of them right at 60.0%.

• 58.2% Completion Percentage overall in 2009, 55.4% in 2010

Locker is nowhere near an accurate enough passer in college to translate to the pros. When we analyze just the 8 key games Locker had in 2010, he averaged just 53.7% Completion Percentage. The 3 worst QBs in this metric that we have studied so far that played their final year in college within the last 5 seasons:

1. 51.3% = Jevan Snead, Ole Miss

2. 53.7% = Jake Locker, Washington

3. 54.5% = Zac Robinson, Oklahoma State

The story gets worse when you give "weight" to those key games for strength of opponent, our worst Completion Percentage QBs on that metric of those having played in the past 5 years:

1. 45.7% = Jevan Snead, Ole Miss

2. 50.4% = Jake Locker, Washington

3. 51.8% = Zac Robinson, Oklahoma State

Not only has Locker been an inaccurate passer, he has not shown any TD Passing prowess either.

 

TDs per Pass Attempt issues

I love to look at Passing TDs per Pass Attempt, as this metric really shined as something that separates the future elites from the future bust QBs. Jake Locker has made the unenviable list here as well.

In key games we looked at, 10 QBs have averaged a TD pass per 25 or more passing attempts. All the future elite QBs we studied had between a TD per every 15-19 attempts in key games, some other QBs had as low (good) as a TD thrown for every 10-12 throws made.

In our study, 25 or more Pass Attempts per TD (in key games) was a near "death blow" of sorts for projecting a QB to the NFL. Of the 10 QBs that we have studied that have hit the bad mark of 25+, only David Garrard went on to be a viable NFL QB, but even he has not shown a tremendous TD passing prowess in the NFL either. The rest of the group are all washouts -- including notables Matt Leinart and Rex Grossman as ones with the most NFL time of the "sad" group at 25+ Pass Attempts per TD in key games. *Michael Vick had metrics in this 25+ range as well, but had multiple injury issues his final year.

 

Physical issues

On top of all of his passing issues, Locker is reportedly measured at 6'2.25"...just above the 6'2 cutline for where QBs seem to have issues more times than not. 32" arm length has not been a great trend either. Locker is not near an elite height or length for a QB. Besides the ability to run, I've seen nothing from a physical standpoint...or passing ability to get anyone excited about Jake Locker as an NFL QB.

 

NFL QB that Jake Locker most compares to statistically...

There are 2 QBs that Locker compares to in our projections system, with 1 of them being not so bad (I guess...). Rex Grossman and David Garrard are both smaller height QBs who had low Completion Percentages with weak TDs per Pass Attempt in college, as well as not so great INTs per Pass Attempt metrics either. David Garrard probably fits the mold of Locker a little better, as Garrard is "thick" like Locker and has running ability like Locker.

Garrard took 4 seasons in the NFL to mature, before he started in his 5th season. Garrard has been a starter for the past 5 seasons with a (24-35) overall record during that time. Garrard had decent seasons in 2007 and 2010, but nothing draw dropping. At best Locker maybe over time could pull off being a useful NFL QB maybe, but more odds are on Locker being a complete bust.

• "Adj" means just key games/better competition -- weighted for strength of opponent

• "per 35 att" numbers are the key games, weighted for strength of opponent and then translated into an average as if every QB had an equal 35 Pass Attempts per game all the time, and thus what would each QB produce if they had 35 passes per game based on the key games their final college season.

QB	Yr	College	H	W	adj Comp Pct	adj Yds per Comp	adj Pass per TD	adj Pass Per INT		Yds per game 35 att	TDs per game 35 att	INTs per game 35 att
Locker, Jake	2010	Washington	74.25	228	50.4%	11.7	30.4	28.8		206.3	1.2	1.2
Grossman, Rex	2002	Florida	73.25	217	57.4%	11.3	28.3	27.3		226.4	1.2	1.3
Garrard, David	2001	East Carolina	73	230	54.9%	12.7	24.6	24.6		243.5	1.4	1.4

 

Jake Locker Overall Score = 0.262*

* see historical rating chart on link to original study =  Predicting the Unpredictable…Projecting a College QB to the NFL with a Mathematical Formula)

There are so many red-flags on Locker it still is amazing he is being discussed in the first round. I still believe that the Locker-hype is a front by smart teams to push him on a sucker team (Oakland Raiders are you listening?). My prediction is most NFL execs and Draft gurus will wise up to this and Locker will fall in the projections to a 2nd-3rd Round pick and then actually be a 3rd Round selection. Maybe a "project" QB long-term at best, but he is definitely not stepping in right away to save a franchise. If selected in the 1st Round, Locker is the ultimate "fools gold" QB in this year's NFL Draft (are you listening Cincinnati Bengals?).

 

 

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