Almost
everyone is in love with Blaine Gabbert right
now...
He is the "hot" QB
prospect of the moment. I'm not exactly sure why. He
has the prototypical QB size (6'5, 240), he "looks like
a QB". A closer look into Gabbert's 2010
statistical passing performance compared to
other QBs of this past decade will reveal some serious questions
on Gabbert's pro prospects. The thought process
for the "Gabbert-detractors" is the fear
that he is a by-product of a "spread"
offense/a shotgun offense -- and that has merit
as a concern. However, I would submit that even playing
within a high pass attempt offense at Missouri
-- that Gabbert really underperformed within
it from a
statistical standpoint.
Our QB mathematical/algorithm
system looking at college data to project
success in the NFL would reveal that Gabbert is
not the best
QB prospect available in the 2011 NFL Draft, and
in fact our data would project that he may not
make it as an NFL QB at all. There are some major
statistical red-flags that jump right out on Gabbert that I
am shocked draft analysts are not talking about.
Future NFL elite QB's did NOT have red-flag metrics
when we developed this system. Gabbert has a
major one -- a red-flag passing metric that no
QB had in college and then went on to be a
success in the NFL (of the 60+ QBs we have
studied to this point in the past decade). Let's
look at a few of the Gabbert red-flags in
detail:
RED FLAG --
Performance against best opponents
Gabbert had 9 games against
opponents with a winning record in 2011 that we analyzed for his
comparison ratings, but there were 3 specific games
within those 9 key games that really
stood out for me. A game at home vs. Oklahoma
(12-2),
followed by an away game with Nebraska
(10-4),
and finally a Bowl Game vs. Iowa (8-5). Three
top-level opponents, facing more pro-talent
level defensive
players, and battling against more elite
coaching staffs
as well.
In those 3 key games (OKL,
NEB, Iowa):
-
Gabbert had just 3
Passing TDs with 3 INTs
-
just 1 passing TD in
each of those key 3 games, no multi
TD games
-
3 games with 141
passing attempts -- and just the 3 passing TDs
-
a pace of just 1
Passing TD for every 47 pass attempts, which
as I have studied over 60+ QBs now in their
final college season, is a terrible passing metric/indicator
for Gabbert projecting forward.
A passing metric that is way off the
pace of the college performance of current
NFL elite QBs (and more of the
pace of future bust NFL QBs).
Some will say…"But,
Gabbert had 434 yards passing against Iowa in
the Bowl Game...that's awesome!" We don't
focus in on just stat compilations, they are
very misleading -- we look at the fact that in
the 2010 Bowl Game vs. Iowa he also had 57 pass
attempts in the game!!
That’s only 7.6 yards per pass attempt. That
would project to 266 passing yards in a game at
a more normal 35 pass attempts. What's scarier
is 57 Pass Attempts with only 1 Passing TD.
Looking at those 3 "key"
games is not to also mention Gabbert's 12 of 30
passing game for just 95 yards against Texas
Tech (8-5). Gabbert had 0 TDs (or INTs) in that
game.
Future big-time NFL QBs are more apt to throw for 2+
TDs in a game, in almost every game they play in their final college season -- no matter who the opponent
is (tough or not).
Gabbert had only 3 of 9 key 2010 games (tough/winning
record opponents) with 2 or more Passing TDs.
Tom Brady was 7 of 7 with 2+ Passing TDs in
key games his final college season, Sam Bradford did it in 9 of
his 9 key games his final full season. The elite
NFL QBs (Brady, Brees, Manning, etc) had 84.3%
(group avg) of all their key games their final
season with
2+ passing TDs a game -- where as Gabbert had
only 2+ passing TDs in
33.3% of his key games. A major red-flag on
passing prowess.
I don't typically look at
games beyond the current/final season for a QB,
but as a Junior in 2009, Gabbert had 4
"top" opponent matchup games to look at = vs.
Nebraska, Texas, Oklahoma State
and Navy (Bowl). Guess what? No games
with 2+ Passing TDs. In fact, 3 TDs and 7 INTs
in those 4 games. There are no signs of elite
passing prowess digging further into Gabbert.
Sam Bradford played
in the same conference (Big-12) right around the same time period
as Gabbert and "ripped up" every opponent no matter how
tough they were. Gabbert has really
not "ripped up" any tough opponent…he's barely
been mediocre against tough opponents. Not only
has he not shown a passing TD prowess, he plays
in a system that passes all the time. Given the
"spread" offense and high levels of
passing attempts, Gabbert
should have had double the passing TDs (Gabbert
had only 16
Passing TDs in 13 games in all of 2010 games
played).
His Passing TD metrics are
so bad, I can’t believe more attention is not
being drawn to it.
RED FLAG -- Overall TDs per
Pass Attempt metric
Gabbert has one of the
worst overall Pass Attempts per Passing TD metric of the
60+ QBs I have studied so far (key
games/opponents only). A look at the 7 worst QB's so
far in our system:
-
52.5
Pass Attempts per TD = Kevin O'Connell
(2007 San Diego State/NY Jets, via released by NE
Patriots)
-
47.0 = John
Skelton (2010 Fordham/Arizona Cardinals)
-
46.8
= Jevan Snead (2010 Ole Miss/undrafted)
-
32.9 = Charlie Whitehurst
(2005 Clemson/Seattle Seahawks)
-
31.9 = Matt Leinart (2005 USC/Arizona
Cardinals)
-
30.4 = Zac Robinson (2010 Oklahoma
State/New England Patriots)
-
30.3 = Blaine
Gabbert (2011 Missouri/2011 class)
-
29.0 = Colin
Kaepernik (2011 Nevada/2011 class)
-
26.8 = Colt McCoy
(2010 Texas/Cleveland Browns)
-
25.7 = Mike Kafka
(2010 Northwestern/Philadelphia Eagles)
Not exactly a Hall-of-Fame
roster of QBs. No QB of all the ones we have
studied so far this past decade has been over
30+ Pass Attempts per Passing TD against winning
record/tougher opponents and then made any
impact in the NFL. A few of whom had high hopes
and totally busted.
When we refine the look at
this metric in the key games and add weighting
to the data for the level/strength of the
opponents faced...Gabbert falls to an even lower
6th worst on our list.
How important is the TDs
per Pass Attempt number? The elite QBs (Brady,
Brees, Manning, etc) are all at
15-19 Pass Attempts per every Passing TD (again,
in key games). There is some correlation passing
TD prowess around 15.0 Pass Attempts per Passing
TD in college (in key games) -- something Gabbert
is way off on. The best of the future "elite"
NFL QBs
in college was Tom Brady at 15.0 per, the worst was Aaron
Rodgers at a still very good 18.6 per.
NFL QBs throw about 30-35
passes per game on average, which would have
Gabbert on a pace to throw about a TD per game
in college (using college key matchup pace). Not
good for the supposed best QB in the 2011 NFL
Draft, when so many have done better and all the
future elite QBs weren't close to that pace in
college.
The QB
Blaine Gabbert most compares to statistically...
I think Gabbert’s physical size and
nice throwing "release" may be wowing people, but a closer look at
his college performance is likely to point out a
future bust in the Matt Leinart mold. Gabbert
plays it safe in a spread offense and gets to a
60%+ pass completion rate and has a lower yards
per completion metrics than we see from the
better QBs. Gabbert has decent games
against weak opponents -- but he has shown
(statistically) that he will wilt under pressure
and is potentially not aggressive enough to be
an NFL QB.
If Gabbert scores low on
the Wonderlic he is going to fall from a
probable NFL bust QB rating, to flat out bust.
I'm assuming he will score OK at this point for
our ratings system. Gabbert is at best a potential good NFL QB, with a lean toward being a
"bust". In our
mathematical system, his college metrics is most
like that of NFL QB Matt Leinart. Not
only metrics, but also both were about the same
size physically as well.
Leinart vs. Gabbert
college metrics vs. key/tougher opponents:
|
|
Comp Pct |
Yds per Comp |
Pass per TD |
Pass Per INT |
TD to INT Ratio |
Ht |
|
Gabbert, Blaine |
62.3% |
10.7 |
30.3 |
51.9 |
1.7 |
6'5.0 |
|
Leinart, Matt |
60.8% |
12.4 |
31.9 |
51.0 |
1.6 |
6'4.8 |
Blaine
Gabbert Overall Score = 0.559
*see historical rating chart on link to original
study = Predicting
the Unpredictable…Projecting a College QB to the
NFL with a Mathematical Formula
Blaine Gabbert is going to
be a great first test of the rating system we
have developed for projecting college QB success
to the NFL. Everyone is in
love with Gabbert now, because Kiper and McShay
are...but we are looking to go on record as
Blaine Gabbert is going to be a bust at this point (waiting for NFL
Combine data to make official). Don't be shocked
to see Gabbert fade down the draft charts as
smarter teams/researchers vet this out, maybe a
draft fade a la
Jimmy Clausen or Brady Quinn -- both started
high on early NFL Draft Boards in Jan/Feb...and you know the
rest.
It's great that Gabbert
looks the part and many love that about a QB,
but just like Leinart looked the part (and also
fell further than people had thought he would in
the Draft) and flopped in the NFL...I think the
same could happen with Gabbert, according to the
numbers.
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