I hate having the #1 pick in the Fantasy Football Draft.

I will do anything to trade out of the pick and/or pray that I draw the 5-12^th+ spot in any Fantasy Football Draft. Inevitably, either I or one of my clients will draw the #1 spot and we can’t wiggle our way out of it. I was stuck twice this past season for clients, each time we selected Chris Johnson at #1.

Going into the 2010 season, Fantasy Football Metrics rated Frank Gore slightly ahead of Chris Johnson for #1 overall Fantasy player, but the two players were so close in their projections that I went with Johnson at the #1 pick – hoping to swing a trade in the preseason for the lower valued (by others) Frank Gore at later date. Somehow in both instances we got “stuck” with Chris Johnson to start the 2010 Fantasy season…little did we know how “stuck” we would be.

Watching tape and looking at trending in 2009, I was fascinated on how Jeff Fisher would use (and maybe “overuse”) Chris Johnson. Johnson led all 2009 RBs with 358 carries on the season, a heavy burden for a RB who barely pushes near 200 pounds. The heavy total carries was an obvious trend to see, however there was one trend much more subtle to Johnson’s incredible 2009 -- the impact of playing with (and without) Vince Young at QB.

In 2009, Chris Johnson played 9 games with Vince Young at QB (not including Week-17, we exclude for the skew of performance data that a Game-16/Week-17 stats can be around the league). The first 6 games of 2009, Johnson played with Kerry Collins at QB – then Young took over for the rest of the season. The difference between Chris Johnson’s time with Young vs. with Collins was remarkable.

·         15.8 carries per game with Collins, 25.2 carries per game with Young (59.5% more carries with Young)

·         99.3 rushing yards per game with Collins, 141.8 Rushing yards per game with Young (42.8% more rushing yardage with Young)

·         0.3 Rushing TDs per game with Collins, 1.1 TDs per game with Young (267% more TD production with Young)

There are a few theories that come to mind on why the Young vs. Collins huge performance gap might have occurred in 2009…

1.       The Titans/Jeff Fisher did not trust Vince Young as a passing QB, throwing less with Young versus Collins – and thus rushing more with Johnson.

2.       Young’s running ability/threat may have opened up opportunity, although that seems more far fetched

 

Whatever the reason -- the trend was obvious. Looking toward 2010, with Young at QB all season, Johnson’s 2010 projections were quite favorable. Obviously, 2010 didn’t turn out as great as hoped for Johnson.

What happened to Johnson in 2010? Too cocky? Offensive Line issues? Curse of the 2,000+ yard rusher for the next season? The data would say, or rather screams – the lack of Vince Young at QB killed Chris Johnson in 2010.

Look at the 2 seasons of data (2009 and 2010) comparisons of Chris Johnson’s performance with Vince Young at QB, and without Young (Kerry Collins or Rusty Smith…or Young split time with Collins). The story is clear, and amazing….

 

Season	Without or Without Vince Young	Games	Carries per Game	Yards per Game	TDs per Game		FF PPR PPG	FF Trad PPG
2009	with V. Young	9	25.2	141.8	1.1		28.7	25.3
2009	w/o V. Young	6	15.8	99.3	0.3		17.4	14.7
	Difference w/o Young		-9.4	-42.4	-0.8		-11.3	-10.6
2010	with V. Young	5	23.6	116.2	1.2		21.0	19.0
2010	w/o V. Young	10	17.8	74.4	0.5		14.7	11.9
	Difference w/o Young		-5.8	-41.8	-0.7		-6.3	-7.1
2009-10	with V. Young	14	24.6	132.6	1.1		26.0	23.0
2009-10	w/o V. Young	16	17.1	83.8	0.4		15.7	13.0
	Difference w/o Young		-7.6	-48.9	-0.7		-10.3	-10.1

 

Just to back up the shocking differences, throw in a couple other shocking data points:

100+ Yard rushing games comparison:

		Games	100 Yd games	% of Games w/ 100+ Yds
2009	with V. Young	9	9	100.0%
2009	w/o V. Young	6	2	33.3%
		Games	100 Yd games	% of Games w/ 100+ Yds
2010	with V. Young	5	4	80.0%
2010	w/o V. Young	10	4	40.0%
		Games	100 Yd games	% of Games w/ 100+ Yds
2009	with V. Young	14	13	92.9%
2009	w/o V. Young	16	6	37.5%

 

A 2010 Week-4 game vs. Denver was the only time in the past 2 seasons that Chris Johnson did not rush for 100+ yards in a game with Vince Young as the main QB in the game. Not only an amazing run of 100+ yard games, but of the 13 times (2009-10) Johnson did go 100+ yard rushing games – in 10 of those 13 games CJ had 125+ yards rushing.

Not only do CJ’s rushing totals spike with Young at QB, but the big yards also converted to TD scoring prowess as well.

2+ Rushing TD games comparison:

		Games	2+ TD Rushing games	% of Games w/ 2+ TDs
2009	with V. Young	9	4	44.4%
2009	w/o V. Young	6	1	16.7%
		Games	2+ TD Rushing games	% of Games w/ 2+ TDs
2010	with V. Young	5	3	60.0%
2010	w/o V. Young	10	0	0.0%
		Games	2+ TD Rushing games	% of Games w/ 2+ TDs
2009	with V. Young	14	7	50.0%
2009	w/o V. Young	16	1	6.3%

 

50% of Johnson’s 2009-10 games with Vince Young at main QB resulted in 2+ rushing TDs. The 50% doesn’t include Week-17 of 2009 in which CJ had 2 TDs as well (again, we exclude Week-17 games because they are typically such statistical aberrations). Only 1 time in 16 games without Young, did Johnson have 2+ TDs in a game.

 

You can see where this is going for 2011…

Johnson’s numbers are eye-popping with Vince Young…and Vince Young seems to have a zero percent chance of working with CJ in 2011. If that doesn’t strike you as a big deal, look again (above) at the 2009-10 Chris Johnson stats without Vince Young. Johnson would have a very respectable projection of 1,340 yards and 6 TDs for a 16-game season. Good, not great. Not a # 1 overall pick consideration. Not even a 1st round Fantasy Football draft pick.

Johnson’s non-Vince Young past performance trends would place him around the 12-15^th best Fantasy Football scoring RB at around 13.0 PPG (traditional scoring).  A 2nd round draft pick at best, maybe more like a 3^rd round pick. I guarantee 2011 preseason publications are going to have Johnson as a Top-5 RB and/or a Top-5 overall pick…at minimum a Top-10/1^st Round Fantasy draft pick. The 2009-10 data would beg of us not to fall into this trap for 2011....unless Vince Young somehow is back with the Titans (and if so, how long could you count on him as a starter?).

Chris Johnson is potentially going to wind up as "peaked in 2009", and over-drafted in the upcoming 2011 Fantasy Drafts...and I haven't even mentioned that his "backup" Javon Ringer is an NFL-worthy starting RB.

 

 

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