*The first part of this
article, the Fantasy Defense points in 2010
referred to are based on the typical tiered
system for points allowed, pts for Sack, INT,
Fum Recov, TD, Spec teams TD.
There are things revealed in Fantasy Football
Week One that are a "false start", especially
when it comes to grading/evaluating Fantasy
Football Defenses. A Defense has a great Fantasy
scoring performance and we want to lock in on
them as gold...when really they just faced/took
advantage of a lower-level or rookie QB, such as
the NYG 13.0 FF pts vs. Matt Moore and the ARI
16.0 FF pts vs. Sam Bradford. Many have moved to
pick NYG and ARI Defenses up this week and/or
moved them in as starters, and will likely
regret it as NYG is brought back to reality on
the road with IND/Peyton Manning, and ARI vs.
Then there are the "traditionally" good
Defenses, that we feel even better about now
after Week 1's reveal like TEN 11.0 vs. Jason
Campbell, and a host of decent 7.0 Fantasy D
games from NO, PHI, GB, BAL, CHI.
One bad performance, and it's a quick
disposal of some Top rated D's such as SF, CIN,
Then there is everyone's new, hot "sleeper"
-- The Kansas City Chiefs who through a rain
aided, and punt return TD aided scoring push
have everyone looking past the fact that they
gave up 389 yards (4th most in Week 1) and that
their Defense was mostly dominated short of the
rain induced turnover and one broken play/run by
Jamaal Charles. If you are predicating picking a
Defense on how good their Punt Return team
looked, you are going to get burned.
Ah, the over-panic of Week One....!!
What has been crazy about all the "normal"
Fantasy Football Defense add/drop turnover is
the lack of attention for the team that actually
scored the most Fantasy Defense points, despite
not being aided by a KR or PR TD -- that Defense
is the Seattle Seahawks.
I am not trying to be the master of the
obvious, Seattle scores a lot of points in one
game and therefore I am now saying they are
good. It's not (just) that. It is something I
missed when studying their 2009 results for 2010
preseason. That miss, when more closely examined
and refigured for projections is coming up to a
potential of the Seattle Seahawks Defense as
Fantasy Football Gold for 2010....and we may
only have from 1 day to 1 week to act upon it
before everyone else figures it out too.
There are 3 parts to this theory:
1) The Seattle defense has an amazing
trend embedded in their 2009 results.
Looking at it topside in 2009, Seattle was
24th overall in Fantasy Football Scoring
(depending upon what system you use). Seattle
had an overall losing record (5-11), so who
cares about them?. There is one interesting
thing I caught this week when re-looking at
their 2009 numbers, that item was Seattle's
proficiency against mid-level and lower-level
QB's last season. That is not a shock that they
would fair better against lower-level QB's, but
they have such an interesting/wide disparity
(and why that is important we'll talk about in a
second) it is eye-opening.
Last season Seattle averaged 5.8 Defense FF
PPG (Games 1-15, no Game 16...just D points,
no KR and PR
TD's), but look at the unusual scoring
- 0.1 FF PPG = Seattle D vs.
Top-Level QB's, and they had a ton (7) of
them to face. This drags their overall avg
- 10.7 FF PPG = Seattle D vs. Mid-Level
QB's (2nd only to New Orleans against
- 10.8 FF PPG = Seattle D vs.
A 10 point swing when facing Top-Level QB's
vs. not. Unfortunately for Seattle, they had a
very high (7) amount of times facing those Top
QB's (remember they had Kurt Warner in division
last year, not anymore)
Why that is important?.....
2) The 2010 schedule is now loaded with
Mid and Lower Level QB's.
I had noted in our preseason "Big Board"
Draft Guide analysis about Seattle's potential
soft schedule as an interesting possibility for
2010, but also that I questioned the
personnel/talent and said that I didn't have the
guts to pull the trigger on it.
I have the guts now.
Take a look at the upcoming schedule:
- Week 2 = @ DEN,
Mid-Level QB Kyle Orton, weakened WR core
- Week 3 = vs.
SD, Top-Level QB Philip Rivers, but no
Vincent Jackson (and maybe never again)
- Week 4 = @ STL,
Rookie/Low-Level QB Sam Bradford = Pick-6
- Week 5 = BYE
- Week 6 = @ CHI,
Mid-Level QB Jay Cutler
- Week 7 = vs.
ARI, Low-Level QB Derek Anderson
- Week 8 = @ OAK,
Mid-Level QB Jason Campbell...and that's a
shaky Mid-Level, might be Low-Level by here
- Week 9 = vs.
NYG, Top-Level QB Eli Manning, semi-shaky to
be in Top-Level
- Week 10 = @
ARI, Low-Level again with Derek Anderson
- Week 11 = @ NO,
Top-Level QB Drew Brees, nice time to take a
break and start another D
- Week 12 = vs.
KC, Mid/Low-Level QB Matt Cassel
- Week 13 = vs.
Rookie/Low-Level QB Jimmy Clausen, or just
as bad Matt Moore
- Week 14 = @ SF,
Mid/Low-Level again with Alex Smith who they
just grabbed 19.0 off of Week 1
- Week 15 = vs.
ATL, Mid-Level QB Matt Ryan
- Week 16 = @ TB,
Low-Level QB Josh Freeman
- Week 17 = vs.
Rookie/Low Level Sam Bradford again
The next 14 games (no Week 17) Seattle
- 3 Top-Level QB's (vs. the 7 they had to
face in 2009)
- 4 Mid-Level QB's
- 7 Low-Level QB's
If we did simple math from Seattle's Defense
2009 Fantasy Football Scoring results and gave
SEA no points vs. Top-Level QB's, and 10 points
for all the other matchups they would average
approx 8 Fantasy Football points per week from
Week 2-16; which is above average. Sit them
against NO, NYG and SD and you might get 10+ per
game with the rest of the matchups on average --
which would be elite level Fantasy Defense
That's just purely on Defense, what if you
get Return Points? Which is my last part of the
3) Seattle has a top level Kick/Punt
When thinking of the top return teams/players
we immediately think of Devin Hester, Josh
Cribbs, Ted Ginn but we quickly forget that Leon
Washington was a top return man just last season
pre-injury. Washington is returning kicks this
year for Seattle. Add that with one time
2010 Fantasy RB sleeper (suddenly now cold for
the moment) Justin Forsett returning punts, and
you have an excellent return duo; one of the
best in the NFL.
Seattle has proven they have a fairly capable
Fantasy Defense overall. The relative ease of
the 2010 schedule as it appears now that the
season has revealed itself a little (Alex Smith
is not going to next level, Derek Anderson is
the ARI option, etc) mixed with an excellent
return team, and Seattle may have just
flip-flopped with San Francisco as the NFC West
Defense to squat on...especially if Ted Ginn is
out for a prolonged time (injured now).
If you go to act on this today, you're ahead
of the curve. Wait too long and this opportunity
may just pass you by...
Select a position
from the tabs below
to see stats and scouting information for that respective