*The first part of this article, the Fantasy Defense points in 2010 referred to are based on the typical tiered system for points allowed, pts for Sack, INT, Fum Recov, TD, Spec teams TD.

There are things revealed in Fantasy Football Week One that are a "false start", especially when it comes to grading/evaluating Fantasy Football Defenses. A Defense has a great Fantasy scoring performance and we want to lock in on them as gold...when really they just faced/took advantage of a lower-level or rookie QB, such as the NYG 13.0 FF pts vs. Matt Moore and the ARI 16.0 FF pts vs. Sam Bradford. Many have moved to pick NYG and ARI Defenses up this week and/or moved them in as starters, and will likely regret it as NYG is brought back to reality on the road with IND/Peyton Manning, and ARI vs. ATL/Matt Ryan.

Then there are the "traditionally" good Defenses, that we feel even better about now after Week 1's reveal like TEN 11.0 vs. Jason Campbell, and a host of decent 7.0 Fantasy D games from NO, PHI, GB, BAL, CHI.

One bad performance, and it's a quick disposal of some Top rated D's such as SF, CIN, and MIN.

Then there is everyone's new, hot "sleeper" -- The Kansas City Chiefs who through a rain aided, and punt return TD aided scoring push have everyone looking past the fact that they gave up 389 yards (4th most in Week 1) and that their Defense was mostly dominated short of the rain induced turnover and one broken play/run by Jamaal Charles. If you are predicating picking a Defense on how good their Punt Return team looked, you are going to get burned.

Ah, the over-panic of Week One....!!

What has been crazy about all the "normal" Fantasy Football Defense add/drop turnover is the lack of attention for the team that actually scored the most Fantasy Defense points, despite not being aided by a KR or PR TD -- that Defense is the Seattle Seahawks.

I am not trying to be the master of the obvious, Seattle scores a lot of points in one game and therefore I am now saying they are good. It's not (just) that. It is something I missed when studying their 2009 results for 2010 preseason. That miss, when more closely examined and refigured for projections is coming up to a potential of the Seattle Seahawks Defense as Fantasy Football Gold for 2010....and we may only have from 1 day to 1 week to act upon it before everyone else figures it out too.

There are 3 parts to this theory:

1) The Seattle defense has an amazing trend embedded in their 2009 results.

Looking at it topside in 2009, Seattle was 24th overall in Fantasy Football Scoring (depending upon what system you use). Seattle had an overall losing record (5-11), so who cares about them?. There is one interesting thing I caught this week when re-looking at their 2009 numbers, that item was Seattle's proficiency against mid-level and lower-level QB's last season. That is not a shock that they would fair better against lower-level QB's, but they have such an interesting/wide disparity (and why that is important we'll talk about in a second) it is eye-opening.

Last season Seattle averaged 5.8 Defense FF PPG (Games 1-15, no Game 16...just D points, no KR and PR TD's), but look at the unusual scoring disparity:

•  0.1 FF PPG = Seattle D vs. Top-Level QB's, and they had a ton (7) of them to face. This drags their overall avg way down.
• 10.7 FF PPG = Seattle D vs. Mid-Level QB's (2nd only to New Orleans against mid-level)
• 10.8 FF PPG = Seattle D vs. Lower-Level/Rookie QB's

A 10 point swing when facing Top-Level QB's vs. not. Unfortunately for Seattle, they had a very high (7) amount of times facing those Top QB's (remember they had Kurt Warner in division last year, not anymore)

Why that is important?.....

2) The 2010 schedule is now loaded with Mid and Lower Level QB's.

I had noted in our preseason "Big Board" Draft Guide analysis about Seattle's potential soft schedule as an interesting possibility for 2010, but also that I questioned the personnel/talent and said that I didn't have the guts to pull the trigger on it.

I have the guts now.

Take a look at the upcoming schedule:

• Week 2 = @ DEN, Mid-Level QB Kyle Orton, weakened WR core
• Week 3 = vs. SD, Top-Level QB Philip Rivers, but no Vincent Jackson (and maybe never again)
• Week 4 = @ STL, Rookie/Low-Level QB Sam Bradford = Pick-6 potential
• Week 5 = BYE
• Week 6 = @ CHI, Mid-Level QB Jay Cutler
• Week 7 = vs. ARI, Low-Level QB Derek Anderson
• Week 8 = @ OAK, Mid-Level QB Jason Campbell...and that's a shaky Mid-Level, might be Low-Level by here
• Week 9 = vs. NYG, Top-Level QB Eli Manning, semi-shaky to be in Top-Level
• Week 10 = @ ARI, Low-Level again with Derek Anderson
• Week 11 = @ NO, Top-Level QB Drew Brees, nice time to take a break and start another D
• Week 12 = vs. KC, Mid/Low-Level QB Matt Cassel
• Week 13 = vs. Rookie/Low-Level QB Jimmy Clausen, or just as bad Matt Moore
• Week 14 = @ SF, Mid/Low-Level again with Alex Smith who they just grabbed 19.0 off of Week 1
• Week 15 = vs. ATL, Mid-Level QB Matt Ryan
• Week 16 = @ TB, Low-Level QB Josh Freeman
• Week 17 = vs. Rookie/Low Level Sam Bradford again

The next 14 games (no Week 17) Seattle faces:

• 3 Top-Level QB's (vs. the 7 they had to face in 2009)
• 4 Mid-Level QB's
• 7 Low-Level QB's

If we did simple math from Seattle's Defense 2009 Fantasy Football Scoring results and gave SEA no points vs. Top-Level QB's, and 10 points for all the other matchups they would average approx 8 Fantasy Football points per week from Week 2-16; which is above average. Sit them against NO, NYG and SD and you might get 10+ per game with the rest of the matchups on average -- which would be elite level Fantasy Defense Scoring.

That's just purely on Defense, what if you get Return Points? Which is my last part of the thought process...

3) Seattle has a top level Kick/Punt Return team

When thinking of the top return teams/players we immediately think of Devin Hester, Josh Cribbs, Ted Ginn but we quickly forget that Leon Washington was a top return man just last season pre-injury. Washington is returning kicks this year for Seattle. Add that with  one time 2010 Fantasy RB sleeper (suddenly now cold for the moment) Justin Forsett returning punts, and you have an excellent return duo; one of the best in the NFL.

 

Seattle has proven they have a fairly capable Fantasy Defense overall. The relative ease of the 2010 schedule as it appears now that the season has revealed itself a little (Alex Smith is not going to next level, Derek Anderson is the ARI option, etc) mixed with an excellent return team, and Seattle may have just flip-flopped with San Francisco as the NFC West Defense to squat on...especially if Ted Ginn is out for a prolonged time (injured now).

If you go to act on this today, you're ahead of the curve. Wait too long and this opportunity may just pass you by...

 

 

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