The Jets Fantasy Defense is one of the those odd
Fantasy Football psychological things,
like starting Tom Brady all year. No one
even checks the data, it's just assumed Brady is
an elite scoring QB (he is 12th in PPG right now
overall, not in the top-10 among QBs in PPG over
the last 6 weeks). David Garrard,
Shaun Hill, and Matt Ryan have passed
Brady for Fantasy consistency and are likely
sitting on most Fantasy teams bench...or
available on waivers.
The Jets are just the 21st overall defense in
Fantasy PPG after 11 weeks, and have a very
tough schedule ahead...and have one more little
X-factor you may have to consider as well. After
11 weeks there are probably 5-10 defenses
available on waivers that have performed (for
Fantasy) as good or better then the Jets
defense. Likely most will still hold onto the
Jets-D (and start them) without question the
rest of the way. Let's look at the schedule and
then the X-factor on why that may not make any
sense.
Week-13 at New England= the likelihood of
multiple sacks or INTs is not statistically
here, no QB throws less INTs (besides Michael
Vick this season) or gets sacked less than
Brady. The odds of a Pick-6, or scoop and score
fumble are very low....the odds of any turnover
is low. Not likely to shut them out either.
Week-14 home with Miami = however it
happens, Miami always plays the Jets very tough.
23 offensive points allowed to them Week-3 (2nd
highest allowed this season), also 31 and 24
allowed in 2 games last season (the most and 2nd
most the Jets gave up last season). Just 3.3 FF
PPG for the Jets-D against the Dolphins in the
last 3 matchups. I like that Jets-D matchup
against Tyler Thigpen, but if Chad
Henne is back...Henne seems to have the Jets
number, in general the Dolphins seem to have the
Jets numbers.
Week-15 @ Pittsburgh = this is likely
another low turnover probable game versus a 3rd
playoff contending team in-a-row.
Week-16 @ Chicago= a very good matchup
for the Jets-D if you make it this far. Four
playoff contending teams in-a-row on the
schedule.
Four tough games, but the X-factor is if the
Jets beat New England and Pittsburgh (whether
they lose to Miami or not, but especially if
they beat Miami) -- then the Jets may not need
the Bears game at all. If the Jets get 2 games
up on NE and PIT, they will hold the
tie-breakers and will be the #1 seed lock and
don't need/can lose Weeks 16 and 17. So
potentially if you make it to Super Bowl week,
the Jets won't be a lock to start against the
Bears...as they play 2nd and 3rd stringers
most/all of the game.
At minimum, you should have a solid secondary
defense on your roster. Looking ahead at
talent+schedule -- possibly available on waivers
now = San Diego, Miami, Minnesota down the
stretch are ones to look at pairing with Jets or
dumping for the Jets. Don't get caught going
down this critical stretch without examining
this defensive play, defense is as important as
any other position...so far, mostly, the Jets
have been burning you all season. Don't pass up
much better options because you are afraid to
drop the Jets-D, or at minimum afraid to not
start them. They are a great NFL defense, but
not so hot for Fantasy this season.
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