The thing most people overlook in Fantasy Football analysis of Team Defense is the schedule. Slightly worse, they consider the schedule from some website or publications standard issue "strength of schedule" -- the standard issue that Strength of Schedule is based on the records of this seasons opponents, based on those opponents prior year record. What does the record from last year have anything to do with offensive prowess, or what will happen offensively in 2010? Why include Week 17 games/opponents into the Strength of Schedule; when Week 17 means nothing in most every Fantasy League?

What my Metrics tell me one of the big X-factors is on predicting/affecting Team Defense in Fantasy Football scoring is something I call  "QB Strength of Schedule" (QBSS). A schedule based on the count of "Top Tier" or "Bottom Tier" QB's you are facing (as a Defense). It's actually quite simple, the more "Top Tier" QB's you face...the more likely you are going to score low in Fantasy Football Defense; and vice-versa facing "Bottom Tier" QB's. I am going to use the NFC East to try to convince you of the impact/value of QBSS on Defense's.

First let's start with some ground rules:

1) What do I mean by "Top Tier QB's"? = The best/elite QB's, such as P.Manning, Brees, Rodgers, Rivers, Favre, Brady, Schaub, E.Manning, McNabb, Kolb (yes, Kolb -- I am projecting he will be a top Fantasy Football QB in 2010, so he's on the list).           *Kurt Warner is in the 2009 totals for "Top Tier" QB. Ben Roethlisberger counted as "Top Tier" in 2009, off the list for 2010...due to potential issues from missed starts, re-integration, poor performance last time there off-field issues.

Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco just miss being "Top Tier".

• Of the Top 10 scoring Offenses last year, 9 of the 10 were led by "Top Tier" QB's (Ravens/Flacco the exception).
• The Top 10 Offenses in total yardage gained for 2009, all led by my "Top Tier" QB list.
• The top 10 lowest turnover Offenses in 2009, 7 of the 10 best led by the "Top Tier" QB's.

I could go on, but you get the point.

2) What do I mean by "Bottom Tier QB's"? = low performing QB's and/or rookies. Because the teams may bounce QB's around, I will just name the teams. BUF, CLE, STL, ARI, TB, CAR, PITT (first 4 weeks)

I know some have already starting arguing with 1-2 QB's on either list. Let's just say this is pretty accurate, or dead-on, for the sake of this argument. I can't be too far out in left field here....stick with me, here come some 2009 calculations

(Standard scoring system, Games 1-15 no game 16 - no Kick Return points, just judging actual Defense for now).

FF PPG	2009 Defense faces:
9.6	Facing "Bottom Tier" QB's
6.7	Facing "Middle Tier" QB's
4.8	Facing "Top Tier" QB's
6.9	Average of all situations

When Defenses face top QB's, their Fantasy Football scoring drops by -2 points per game off the normal. When they face the lowly QB's, the Defense FF scoring  jumps about +3 points per game from normal. At this point, you are likely to say "Duh". I think we all know this would be true without even seeing the calculations. After more thought on this you might think, "well, that's overall but the good defenses probably defy that, and those weak defenses really skew it". Let's see about that, using the NFC East...

My main point of this article is to get you to stay away from any of the 4 NFC East Defenses as a pre-season Draft pick, to plug in and hope for a nice run in 2010. That may be a shock to some people's system, the Eagles, Cowboys, Giants are all typically top 12 Defenses in publications. I am looking at one that has the Eagles at the very top. Some folks even have the Redskins as "sleepers". I don't think any of the NFC East Defenses are going to finish Top 10. Possibly all will finish in the bottom 10 of the NFL in 2010. Let's see why.

First let's get our bearings straight with the 2009 Fantasy Football Defense points per game for each team (again, Games 1-15).

FF PPG	Overall	Defense
9.6	# 3	Philadelphia Eagles Defense
6.9	# 17	Dallas Cowboys Defense
5.9	# 22	New York Giants Defense
5.7	# 25	Washington Redskins Defense
6.9		Average All Teams Defense

Not that great in 2009 to begin with, some/a lot of that is going to be off this "QBSS" issue. Let's look at how many times these teams faced "Top Tier" QB's in 2009.

vs. Top Tier	Defense
5	Philadelphia Eagles Defense
6	Dallas Cowboys Defense
7	New York Giants Defense
7	Washington Redskins Defense
5.5	Average All Teams Defense

8 was the most any team had to face in 2009, which was the Denver Broncos who ranked 6th overall (8th taking away KR points) in FF PPG for Defense last season. Of all the 12 Team Defenses who faced 7, or more, "Top Tier" QB's in 2009 -- just 3 of those teams finished top 12 in Defense PPG, and the other 9 of 12 all finished in the bottom 11.

9 of the bottom 11 FF Defenses had this affliction. Taking some of the most coveted 2009 pre-season Fantasy Football Defenses down the tubes such as Tennessee, the Giants, Washington, and Chicago.

How exactly does it effect the defensive scoring to face these "Top Tier" QB's? Here is how the NFC East faired against the "Top Tier" in 2009:

FF PPG	Team Defense vs. Top Tier QB's in 2009
6.3	Dallas Cowboys Defense
5.2	Philadelphia Eagles Defense
3.4	Washington Redskins Defense
2.1	New York Giants Defense
4.8	Average All Teams Defense vs. Top Tier

You can see how good the Eagles and Cowboys Defenses are as they beat the NFL average, there is no doubt that they are very good NFL Defenses. The problem is scoring is still low vs. this QB grouping. You would not be happy for your starting FF Defense to pull down 5-6 points in a game. You're not winning consistently with that kind of scoring Here is the 2010 problem with that....

Look at how many times the NFC East faces "Top Tier" QB's in 2010 (below). Given the fact that every QB in their division is a "Top Tier"' plus through whatever scheduling quirk the NFC East grabbed some AFC South (IND, HOU) and NFC North (GB, MIN) mixed in there too. Plus I see NO and SD slipping in some of their schedules. It is brutal for them in 2010. Here is a list of the "Top Tier" QB matchups, comparing 2009 and 2010.

Chg YOY	2010	2009	Defense
+4	9	5	Philadelphia Eagles Defense
+4	10	6	Dallas Cowboys Defense
+2	9	7	New York Giants Defense
+2	9	7	Washington Redskins Defense
-0.4	5.1	5.5	Average All Teams Defense

The top 4 Teams in the NFL facing the most "Top Tier" QB's in 2010 = #1 thru 4 is Dallas, followed by a 3 way tie of Philly, Washington, NY Giants. All NFC East. The league overall is in a slight decline, while the NFC East makes a massive rise up.

For every yin, there is a yang. If there is pain from facing "Top Tier" QB's, then there must be pleasure in facing "bottom tier" QB's...and  that is correct. Here is how the NFC East fared against the "Bottom Tier" QB's in 2009.

vs. Bottom Tier	Defense
14.2	Philadelphia Eagles Defense
8.2	Washington Redskins Defense
7.8	Dallas Cowboys Defense
7.3	New York Giants Defense
9.6	Average All Teams Defense

It's good to have those "Bottom Tier" QB's on the schedule, here is the difference in 2009 for FF Defense scoring:

'09 DIFF	vs. Bottom Tier	vs. Top Tier	Defense
+ 9.0	14.2	5.2	Philadelphia Eagles Defense
+ 5.2	7.3	2.1	New York Giants Defense
+ 4.8	8.2	3.4	Washington Redskins Defense
+ 1.4	7.8	6.3	Dallas Cowboys Defense
+ 5.0	9.6	4.6	Average All Teams Defense

A couple data boxes prior I showed how the amount of times facing "Top Tier" QB's is jumping up in 2010 for all the NFC East. If that wasn't bad enough to damage their FF Defense scoring prospects, it's "doubled-down" with a dramatic shrink in the amount of "Bottom Tier" QB's they will get to help pump their scoring back up. Here is the comparison from 2009 to 2010 in the amount of games facing the "Bottom Tier":

Chg YOY	2010	2009	Defense
-5	0	5	Philadelphia Eagles Defense
-3	1	4	Dallas Cowboys Defense
-3	1	4	New York Giants Defense
-4	2	6	Washington Redskins Defense
-2.2	2.4	4.6	Average All Teams Defense

None for the Eagles, amazing and sad for them. The Cowboys and Giants just one matchup projected.

The NFC East Defenses are going to take a hit in 2010, I don't care how great their personnel or coaching is (or isn't). The scheduling is as big change, year-over-year and split of Top/Bottom, as I have seen in my database for years. It is almost criminal for magazines, websites, and networks to just grab at the Defenses for Fantasy Football based on their gut-feelings or a feel for the personnel -- and then spit that out with these teams all ranked in the top 3 or 5 or 12. Players/Coaches matter, no doubt. But to totally ignore the impact of schedule, when it is this lopsided is amazing. It's the reason we developed this site. There are opportunities out there with the proper number analysis to avoid "landmines", and to find real value.

If you draft Defenses pre-season, I implore you not to take Philly, Dallas, or NYG as your primary Defense. It is a massive mistake, for sure limited upside at best. There is barely any good opportunities to maneuver them in and out based on week-to-week schedule. Schedule matters, I cannot say it enough.

As the real 2010 season progresses, we constantly update the developing facts and project out the strength of schedules for injuries or players who have developed faster than projected. We encourage you, if you like our analysis, to join our website's in-season services and statistical analysis to stay ahead of the competition that relies on "gut" and watching "highlights".

 

 

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