With the news that
Rashard Mendenhall "could" start the 2012
season on the PUP list, and/or could be hindered
in 2012 by his late-season ACL tear...most of
the questions into me as of late, have been
surrounding the various individual depth chart
Steelers RB possibilities. To answer that
question, let's go through the Steelers options
in no particular order:
Isaac Redman is the
most obvious "next up." The problem with that
is, if the Steelers are a serious contender for
2012...there is no way that the Steelers will
just willingly turn the running game over to
Redman. The main reason is talent; Redman just
isn't that spectacular. Like many NFL RBs,
Redman is useful in a pinch...a nice relief RB,
but not a workhorse that can be a game-changer
(our opinion). Redman could be in the mix for
2012 carries...but there is little chance that
he is a 200-250+ carry RB in 2012. That being
said, you now have peak value on Isaac Redman if
you own him in a Dynasty League...now is the
time to extract max-value on a trade-away; if
all possible.
Actually, I don't feel that
the Steelers 200+ carry RB is on the roster at
the moment. Let's look at this from the "smart"
Steelers standpoint.
One of the NFL teams that I
most admire on personnel decision making
ability, is the Pittsburgh Steelers. Time, and
time again...they outthink, recycle, find
sleepers, and avoid media hype players. No
franchise's personnel decisions are always
perfect, but the Steelers may be the best in the
business. That being said, Rashard Mendenhall
is an unrestricted free agent in 2013...and
dealing with a major 2012 injury. Mendenhall
isn't even 25 years old yet (will be in June),
so there should be "tread left on the tire" in
theory. However, given the ACL injury, given
Mendenhall's past embarrassing public
commentaries, and most importantly -- given the
trend that the RB position is becoming a low
need position, with plenty of supply to meet the
demand...I'm not sure the Steelers are going to
make a strong move for Mendenhall in 2013. If
Mendenhall is sketchy for 2012, and he could be
allowed to walk in 2013...the Steelers cannot
feel secure about the RB position "as is."
A move that would not shock
me, a player who would fit the "Steelers-way," a
RB that has an AFC North mentality/style, and a
RB that could be part of a duo if Mendenhall is
fully recovered, and under contract...is Mike
Tolbert. I don't see the Steelers spending a
ton on a flashy, overpriced RB this
offseason...but a Mike Tolbert could be a
huge bargain. Tolbert has proven NFL
skills/productivity...and is flying under the
free agent radar right now. He is a Steelers
type of bargain, if the price stays lower...and
the Steelers are planning on a non-Mendenhall
long-term future.
Without a Mike Tolbert-type
signing this offseason, or even if so...the
Steelers could draft a RB 3rd-5th round this
year. When the Steelers draft any position, the
odds go up that it is the right call...and there
are always plenty of
mid-round/late-round/undrafted RBs available
each NFL Draft that out-produce the expensive
1st-Round type RBs.
If the Steelers add a
Tolbert, and/or draft cleverly (as usual)...Isaac
Redman's Dynasty Fantasy Football value sits
at an all-time high right now.
The Steelers also have
other options to consider. In 2011, the Steelers
drafted a RB in the 7th-Round that our computer
scouting models really liked -- Baron Batch.
Batch injured his knee in training camp, and was
lost for the 2011 season. Batch is obviously a
risk coming off this type of injury, but is one
to watch (if healthy) in this whole
post-Mendenhall fallout for 2012. For more info
on Batch, see a 2011 NFL Draft piece we did --
Baron Batch Rookie RB — the Pittsburgh Steelers
“Out-Scout” Everyone…as Usual | Fantasy Football
Metrics – RC Fischer Blog
We do not like Jonathan
Dwyer at all. Dwyer graded as one of the
physically worst RB prospects that we have ever
analyzed. Dwyer measured slow, non-agile, small
handed, and a higher probability
injury-risk...other than that, he's awesome.
Dwyer was a top performer for Georgia Tech, but
keep in mind that was in a wishbone type
offense...the NFL saw right through that as
Dwyer plummeted from an early 2nd-Round RB mock
draft prospect in 2010...to an actual mid
6th-Round selection. Dwyer has looked better in
the NFL, since he has cut some weight...but I'm
going to trust the computer on this one until
proven otherwise. I'm not pursuing Dwyer, no
matter what the underground media chatter
theorizes on it.
John Clay is a
harder RB prospect to gauge right now. Clay is a
massive 6'0+, 230-pound RB that was a huge
producer for Wisconsin from 2008-10 (3,413 yards
rushing in 3 seasons, with 41 TDs). At one time
expected to be a higher 2011 NFL Draft
selection, but wound up losing his final 3 games
of 2011 with an MCL injury...leading to an
extremely slow 40-time (4.83) at the NFL
Combine, and thus Clay went undrafted. Clay was
moved up to the active roster late in 2011,
actually grabbed 11 carries late in the season
for the Steelers. Clay is intriguing for Fantasy
Football if he heals, and can improve upon his
foot speed. Don't be shocked if Clay winds up as
a part of an RB tandem, as the short-yardage
"pounder." If the word from training camp starts
up that Clay is looking quicker than ever,
etc...use caution, but heed the potential if he
actually is faster (post-injury) than his 2011
NFL Combine data showed. He would be a Mike
Tolbert type RB (minus the ability in the
passing game).
The Steelers are smart, and
like the Patriots and Packers...I think that
they will be comfortable moving toward a cheaper
RB-tandem going-forward. It's the smart business
move in the NFL. It just so happened that they
were able to land an elite-talent like
Mendenhall in 2008, so it made sense to ride
that train. Now that the train is derailed, I
don't think the Steelers will hit the panic
button, they will do what they always do...make
a great middle of the draft selection, or find
that hidden gem undrafted free agent, or sign an
available RB on the cheap.
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