*Our TE grades can
and will change as more information comes in
from Pro-Day workouts, Wonderlic test
results leaked, etc. We will update ratings as new info
becomes available.
***FREE
SAMPLE REPORT -- See more of our unique 2012 NFL
Draft prospect reports at
www.collegefootballmetrics.com ***
Why do you like/love
Coby Fleener as a TE prospect in the 2012 NFL
Draft?
Honestly, take a
second to reflect upon that question. Everything
that we have built our football analysis on
rides upon the answer to that question. My
anti-establishment ways are completely and 100%
explainable in an analysis of Coby Fleener.
Please, seriously...think about the question of
why you like/love Coby Fleener as a TE
prospect in this draft. Write it down on a piece
of paper and examine it. A moment of silence as
you think of the reasons...
Most of you don't
need any more homework/tasks in your life, so
for some of you out there -- I will give the
"why you like/love Fleener" answer for you.
Because the mainstream draft media says so, and
you are following that herd of sheep right off a
cliff. The more sophisticated technology
becomes, and the more data that the world has
available, and
yet NFL Draft scouting continues to gravitate
towards "things we see on TV a bunch" --
anything Alabama, anything LSU, anything related
to RG3, anything related to Andrew
Luck.
Some of you may
answer, "he's a big TE that runs a fast
40-time!" If speed is your "bag," then you must
have the same torch burning for Rob Housler,
David Ausberry, Fendi Onobun,
Jordan Cameron...you get the point. I could
name 10+ TE prospects just since 2010 who run
nearly as fast, or faster, than Fleener's
measured speeds. A TE that can run a +/- 4.50
time in the 40-yard dash is becoming passé
anymore.
Some of you may
answer, "look at those stats last year...10
TDs!" Really? A TE who played with quite
possibly the most prolific passer in college
football history and had just 2.6 receptions and
51.3 yards per game last year, and you want to
declare that as "awesome performance"? Did you
realize that Coby Fleener's 2011 season
high for receptions in a game was only four? In
three games last year, Fleener had just one
catch. In four other games, Fleener had just two
catches. In more than half of Fleener's games in
2011, he had 1 or 2 receptions...wow, what a
"game-breaker!"
I know, I know...I
can hear it now, "Luck spreads the ball around!"
Yes, that's what Andrew Luck does...he
sees a tremendous weapon that always open
(because Fleener is a "super-human" TE seemingly to
some), but then he decides to ignore
said-weapon, and throws it into the flat to a RB
instead. That's the Andrew Luck I know,
always ignoring his best option. That's why Luck
is so good, he purposefully limited Fleener to
1-4 catches per game...it was "Jedi mind-trick"
with opposing defenses. Fleener had stats/life
breathed into him by Luck, not vice-versa.
I hope you're not
telling me the player with the 3rd most
receptions on Stanford in 2011 (Fleener) is
actually the best TE in this draft? You're
telling me a TE that is evidentially so elite
that he could not manage more than four catches
in a game last year on a prolific
pass-offense...that guy is worth a 1st-Round
draft pick and committing your "heart" over to
as your NFL team's TE savior?
Yes, Fleener had
10 TDs last year...of Stanford's 38 passing TDs.
That's 26.3% of his team's 2011 TD passes that
were caught by Fleener. That's not bad, but a TE
that caught 6 TD passes on a team that only
threw for 20 TDs, would have been better
proportionally. Six TDs aren't a sexy as ten on
the surface, but the six TDs might actually be
the more impressive performance. If you don't
evaluate the circumstances of the output, you're
leaving yourself wide-open to a major
disappointment.
If you don't think
that Coby Fleener had his 2011/career
output pushed by 30-50%+ by playing with Andrew Luck...you're out of your mind. Had
Fleener played for Miami or UCLA or pick any
weaker offense/QB, you would not care less about
him right now. Instead, you're (potentially)
whipped into a frenzy over the prospect of
adding him to your favorite NFL team. The
mainstream media has sold you a bag of beads,
because this year (seemingly) they only watched
Alabama, LSU, anything RG3, and anything
Andrew Luck for about 90% of their
studies...and then used the other 10% of their
studies for the other 300+ college teams. The
mainstream saw Fleener often, only because they
were looking at Luck. Their mind has tricked
them into the repetitive visual as their
reality.
Coby
Fleener, Through the Lens of our TE Scouting
Algorithm
Quite frankly, I
am stunned over how flimsy Fleener's college
output/statistical performance is...given he
worked with Luck all those years. Fleener had
one great game against Virginia Tech in 2010 --
6 catches, 173 yards, 3 TDs. Ignore that one
game, and the rest of Fleener's career is
mediocre at best.
Fleener has played
43 games in his college career, let's make it 42
less the Virginia Tech game. Look at these
eye-opening performance stats in those 42 games:
-
16 = games
played with 0 or 1 catch in the game (38.0%)
-
12 = games
played with 2 catches in a game (28.5%)
-
28 = games
played with 0-2 catches in a game (66.5%)
Playing with a
tremendous QB for most of his career, and
two-thirds of the time Fleener had 2 or fewer
catches in a game. In the last two seasons with
Luck (less the Virginia Tech game) Fleener has
had 2 or fewer catches in 59.0% of his games
played.
Fleener's per game
averages in the past two seasons with Luck, less
the Virginia Tech game:
-
2.5
receptions, 42.2 yards per game, 0.6 TDs per
game
When Fleener faced
PAC-10 teams with a winning record, plus in his
bowl game in 2011, he was a ghost last year (vs.
Washington, Oregon, USC, Oklahoma State) -- 2.0
receptions, 24.3 yards, and 0.0 TDs per game.
Honestly, the more
I dig into Fleener's performance, the more
jacked up I get. How is the national draft media
not seeing this? I know it's a little "simple"
to say, "Fleener was all because of Andrew
Luck." However, someone needs to say it loud
and proud. Not only was Fleener pushed by Luck,
the results of the push aren't that stellar!
Physically,
Fleener is fine. A little thinner-framed, but
athletic, strong and with good hands. I could
say that about a bunch of 2012, or 2011, or 2010
TEs...all who didn't play with Andrew Luck.
Fleener is solid physically, but he is not
transcendent. Fleener is not in the
size-athleticism class of a Vernon
Davis, or Antonio Gates, or a Jimmy Graham, etc.
Fleener is a very
nice TE prospect, one who will likely be an NFL
TE of note only if he is paired with a great NFL
QB, but I would say that about any solid TE
prospect in this (or any) draft. Fleener is
nowhere near in the physical/athletically gifted
profile of 2011 TE draftee Rob Housler,
but you may not know (or have forgotten) who Housler
is, yet are potentially orgasmic over Fleener.
It makes no sense.
Why I'm worked up
over this is -- the media did this to us.
Fleener is a lazy-media created prospect if I
have ever seen one. Not that Fleener can't be
NFL solid/useful, but our issue is that he is not
as great as we're being sold...and is definitely
not worth a 1st or 2nd round draft pick in our
estimation (within the context of all the TEs
available in this draft or prior drafts).
The NFL Tight End that Coby Fleener most
compares to statistically in college, within our system analysis:
I have to reel
myself in, as it may appear that I am a trashing
Coby Fleener. Our computer analysis is
not claiming Fleener as a "bust" or a fraud. The
point hiding among the earlier diatribe is --
Fleener is OK/good, but not overly-special.
Our system likes
Rob Housler and Greg Olsen as
Fleener comparisons, both are very good/great
physical specimens among TE prospects. Fleener
isn't as overall athletic as either of them, but he is
in their range. Housler was a 5th-Round draft
pick in 2011. Olsen was available in trade for a
3rd-Round draft pick in 2011. A very good TE is
a 3rd-5th round draft estimate, and that's where
Fleener should fall...but he probably won't last
that long.
| TE score |
Last |
First |
Yr |
College |
H |
H |
W |
Speed Agility Metric |
Strength Blocking Metric |
Hands
Metric |
Red Zone Metric |
| 7.29 |
Fleener |
Coby |
2012 |
Stanford |
6 |
5.6 |
247 |
8.80 |
6.46 |
7.41 |
8.93 |
| 8.73 |
Housler |
Rob |
2011 |
Fla Atlantic |
6 |
5.3 |
248 |
13.37 |
6.74 |
8.10 |
7.93 |
| 8.02 |
Olsen |
Greg |
2007 |
Miami, Fla |
6 |
5.7 |
254 |
10.57 |
7.93 |
7.11 |
6.40 |
| 8.29 |
Cook |
Jared |
2009 |
So. Carolina |
6 |
4.6 |
246 |
8.92 |
6.35 |
6.45 |
6.58 |
Coby Fleener Overall
Metrics Scouting Score = 7.29 ("C" grade level prospect)
*A score of 8.50+ is where we see a
stronger correlation of TEs going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of
10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system, and indicates a greater
probability of becoming an elite NFL TE.
All of the
TE ratings are based on a 0-10
scale, but a player can score negative, or above
a 10.0 in certain instances.
"Speed-Agility Metric" =
A combination of unique metrics surrounding
speed, agility, physical size, mixed with some
on-field performance metrics. High scorers here
project to have a better YAC, and show characteristics to be used
as deep threats/create separation.
"Power-Strength Metric" = A
combination of unique metrics surrounding
physical-size profiling, bench press strength,
etc. High scorers here project to be more
physical, better blockers, and less
injury-prone.
"Hands
Metric"
= A combination of unique metrics surrounding
on-field performance in college, considering the
strength of opponents played. Furthermore, this
data considers some physical profiling for
hand-size, etc. High scorers here have a better
track record of college statistical performance,
and projects the combination of data for the
receiving success at the next-level.
"Red
Zone Metric"
= A combination of unique metrics surrounding
on-field performance in college, and a physical
profiling of successful red-zone TEs in the NFL.
An attempt to measure the TD/end-zone
threat/productivity a TE could have in the NFL.
2012 NFL Draft outlook...
If there were
no other TEs of note in this draft, and an NFL
franchise was desperate at the TE position, I
could see a stretch of Fleener as a 2nd-Round
draft pick. However, Ladarius Green, Michael
Egnew and Derek Carrier are all
interesting prospects in the 2012 TE draft
class. Perhaps a James Hanna is even in
the discussion a little. With all the available,
similarly gifted, TEs available in this
class...it should depress Fleener's draft stock.
We think Fleener's stock will fall in reality
the closer we get to draft-day, but probably
only to the 2nd-Round.
Some mainstream
draft media mock drafts now show Fleener as a
late 1st-Round pick, and we think that is
completely misunderstanding the historical and
relative value of TEs, as well as overlooking
the talent in the current class, plus falling
into an Andrew Luck-hype vortex. Any team
that makes the Fleener pick in rounds one or two
is missing the bigger picture of the draft in
its complex entirety.
