tags --
dynasty leagues, 2012 fantasy football, Jacob
Tamme, Eric Decker, Blair White
--
See more of our statistical analysis on the 2012
NFL Draft prospects @
www.collegefootballmetrics.com
--
The Colts released WR
Blair White Friday. For the Fantasy Football
masses, this means little-to-nothing. For some
of us, we know this tidbit is not just a simple
blip on the NFL newswire.
Perhaps, White is a little
more injured then we know, but his 2011 knee
injury wasn't a major one that we can tell (put
on IR Week-8 of 2011, and never returned). If
White is healthy, the news of his release is a
shock to us. If he is injured deeper than is
reported, then we take all the following words
back...
As I conducted a quick
Google search on the date/info of the Blair
White release, I couldn't help but read a
few NFL blogger instant reactions. I was shocked
to see such a indifferent dismissal of White as
an NFL talent/nobody. Some are doing the math
that White's release means he will be in Denver
by the week's end...and I would bet heavily on
that. The story that the mainstream is ignoring
is that this could be a real game-changer in
Denver (should White sign there). To our
computer, the Colts just gave up (for absolutely
nothing) a WR that if you put his 2010 NFL
Combine measureables onto a more "favored"
college WR in 2012...that WR would be a 3rdd-4th
round draft pick projection. White is also a WR
that has already proven he can "hang" in the
NFL.
On a 2012 Fantasy Football
front, a Blair White signing in Denver
could be a big 2012 Fantasy valuation/scoring
output hit for Eric Decker.
A quick Blair White
rewind
In our 2010 Fantasy
Football Draft Guide, we touted Michigan State's
Blair White as a tremendous pull by
Bill Polian -- a mid-draft talent level (to
us) that went undrafted, and was scooped up for
"pennies on the dollar."
To back up what the
computer was guiding us on concerning White's
possibilities in the NFL -- White broke into
heavier playing time by Week-3 of 2010 (with 3
catches for 27 yards and a TD against Denver).
White went on to score more TDs (5) than
Dallas Clark (3) in 2010 (Clark was injured
that year), and White finished 1 TD behind
Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon for
the 2010 season.
As a complimentary WR for
the Colts in 2010, White finished with a 36
catch for 355 yards season with the 5 TDs. He
had the coveted "instant connection" with
Peyton.
In 2011, White didn't catch
one pass...which is not much of a crime because
the Colts barely completed any passes. White
barely saw the field as a WR in 2011, but he did
see time as a primary punt returner before
injuring his knee in Week-8 and going on reserve
for the rest of the season.
The Colts are a rebuilding
franchise that should be on the prowl for
young/inexpensive talent like Blair White
(would have been $490K payroll for 2012).
Instead, they just threw White away for nothing.
They did lay out $3.5M for Reggie Wayne
this upcoming year, so "all is well" with the
new brain trust. The non-Peyton era (like in
2011) will expose Reggie Wayne for the
overrated WR that he is. The non-Bill Polian
era will be painful for Colts fans. Enjoy your
owner taking to twitter daily...
If Blair White were
in the 2012 NFL Draft...
Some of the comments I've
seen on White in the last 24-48 hours are
dismissive of him as too slow or a bit
player...oh contraire unstudied mainstream
media.
Blair White ran a
4.49 time in the 40-yard dash at the 2012 NFL
Combine. He had great 10/20 yard burst times as
well. Not only is he straight-line fast, but
White had tremendous agility measurements. There
is a reason why White returned punts (as did
Eric Decker and Jordy Nelson at
one-time, hint-hint) for the Colts last year.
When I filter the 2012
draft class of WRs that are 6'2+ tall with
40-times in the 4.4s and tremendous agility
measurements...there is Stephen Hill. You
get close with Rueben Randle, Greg Childs,
and Alshon Jeffery in the 4.5 range. If
Jeffery had produced the same speed/agility
measureables at the NFL Combine or Pro-Day as
White produced in 2010, Jeffery would be a
1st-Round pick this year...and the masses would
be all jacked up over what a "beast" (again,
this word is banned in my office) he is.
Blair White was released last week, and no
one cares (nationally).
Everyone was excited a few
years ago by Big-12 star college WR Dez
Bryant, but no one cared that Big-12 star WR
Jordy Nelson was just as/more
productive/talented. People drooled over Broncos
1st-Round pick Demaryius Thomas in 2010,
and fell asleep on their talented 3rd-Round pick
Eric Decker. Thank you unstudied
mainstream/hysteria media.
Our computer never fell for
this mainstream hysteria/hoax, and many of us
enjoyed a big 2011 Fantasy Football season as
our computer led us to the Jordy + Decker
promised land last season.
Blair White is in
the same range of talent as Jordy Nelson
or Eric Decker...and if you buy that,
then there are some major ramifications coming
from where White lands in the next few
days/weeks.
The two Eric Decker's
problem...
Most of you know that we
were pro-Eric Decker before it was chic.
We were also touting Blair White before
anyone outside of Lansing, MI cared. Now you
have the potential of these similar talents on
the same squad. It's great for the Broncos, but
potentially not great if you hold Eric Decker
stock in a Dynasty League right now.
We think that Blair
White might complete "the Colts WR circle"
in Denver -- Demaryius is Reggie Wayne,
Decker is Austin Collie, and White is a
tall Pierre Garcon. White (to us)
actually pushes more toward the Wayne/Collie
role...which could cause D. Thomas and Decker to
be a bit watered down for 2012 Fantasy Football
output.
I would be willing to make
the argument that Blair White is better
than Eric Decker (on paper). At minimum,
they are similar talents. Both have great hands,
but Decker is a little taller/thicker, and White
is faster/quicker.
If the Broncos nab a more
Garcon-like "small-WR" (under 6-foot/speedy) via
the draft or other...the Broncos (with White)
are then absolutely loaded at WR, like the old
Colts.
The Broncos WR pool could
be getting very crowded for Fantasy Football
2012...and we don't have an established Peyton
target-pattern like we did with the
Wayne-Collie-Garcon era. The mainstream Fantasy
Football media will rush to pump D. Thomas and
Decker because that's all they know. Jacob
Tamme, and now maybe Blair White and
Brandon Stokely, and/or a clever mystery
late-round draft pick "small-WR" later -- all
this talent will mean we don't know who will
truly emerge as the Peyton-preferred targets.
Perhaps they will all cannibalize each other.
The Denver WR/pass-target situation is probably
not going to wind up as simple as assuming 2012
must be all about Thomas and Decker only, with a
little Tamme mixed in.
If Blair White signs
in Denver, that may be your cue to try to trade
Decker in a Dynasty League if he has an inflated
value. We like Decker a lot, but that "like" is
going to get slashed in value to some degree if
a healthy Blair White lands in Denver.
Blair White not to
Denver?
We would be shocked if
White did not wind up with Denver, but because
we think he is a "hidden" talent, we theorize
that some smart NFL teams are going to be
looking at this opportunity as well. White also
may want to go to a less crowded depth chart.
I would say the Patriots
are a great fit, but they already poached
Anthony Gonzalez from the Colts (a very
smart/cheap gamble)... maybe they go for the
daily double with signing White. White would be
a nice fit in Pittsburgh as well. White will
have his suitors, and you must take serious note
of him for Dynasty Leagues...as depending upon
where he lands, he may be worth taking in the
upcoming 2012 Dynasty Rookie Draft (if he is
open to be taken in your rookie draft).
I have been a broken record
all pre-2012 NFL Draft on "small-WRs" over at
www.collegefootballmetrics.com. We think all
this consternation and hysteria over the 2012 WR
draft class is wasted "folly." The mainstream is
in love with highlight clips of power-conference
WRs, and they completely miss the business
aspect of the supply and demand aspect of the
lowering-values of NFL WRs in general. While
people are falling all over themselves for the
6'1+, slower foot speed/lower-agility Justin
Blackmon...the taller/faster Blair White
just became available for considerably less
payroll than a top-10 NFL draft pick.
This Blair White
situation may seem fairly benign, but it is
something we are watching heavily for Fantasy
Football 2012 impact. We'll update the
thoughts/projections as soon as he lands
somewhere.
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