*Part of our on-going
2012 series of a team-by-team review of 2011,
and our look ahead to 2012. Designed more for
Dynasty League players, but may come in handy as
early homework for traditional Fantasy Football
players.
The Lions have a very
favorable schedule (potentially) in 2012. They
have drawn the AFC South and NFC West in their
schedule rotation, which is potentially going to
be very beneficial for their team-defense in
traditional Fantasy Football for 2012, as well
as allowing them to continue on as a higher
scoring offense again.
Not only is the strength of
schedule on their side, they also have a nice
tally of desired stadiums/climates as well. The
Lions have their 8 home/dome games, as well as
MIN, ARI, and JAC on the road.
The Lions had a pretty
solid Fantasy Football defense and offense in
2011, and there should be no fall-off in 2012
with this schedule unless Matt Stafford
goes down.
The largest volume of
Fantasy Football questions I get on Detroit is
concerning their RB situation, and that has been
an absolute enigma to us for the past two
years…and 2012 looks even more confusing at the
moment.
The Lions six-pack of
RBs…
The Lions have six really
good RBs and simultaneously have no reliable
RBs…it’s quite bizarre.
Our computer scouting of
each of the six RBs has ranged from kinda
interested to really excited about all of them
individually over the years. However, the Lions
RB situation has been a revolving door of late,
and it’s now turned into a crowded kitchen of
too many chefs. Let’s start with the
less-exciting RBs, and work our way up to the
one we get the most questions about – Mikel
Leshoure.
We have always kept an eye
on Joique Bell, but he always winds up on
deep RB depth chart teams of late. Our computer
doesn’t love him, but has had a mild
intrigue…to-date this has meant nothing. There
is no reason to believe that will change in
2012. A few Lions RBs have to go, so we expect
to see him on yet another team in 2012.
Keiland Williams is
of high interest to us in the right situation. I
have no idea why the Lions did not turn more
activity over to him last year given all the RB
issues they experienced all year. It’s time for
our computer analysis to face facts with
Keiland. He’s been unceremoniously dumped by
Washington after a very good 2010 rookie debut,
and then he was mostly ignored by Detroit in
2011. When he gets the shot, he has been
delivering, but no coach seems to care. Whatever
is going on behind the scenes, the fact is
Keiland is always an odd-man out. We’ll continue
to follow him, but are curbing our enthusiasm
with him until proven otherwise (and then we’ll
say, “I told ya so!).
Jerome Harrison is a
former computer love-child, and has had some
amazing NFL moments, but now with the brain
issue and closing in on age 30 by season
start…we may never hear from him again.
Kevin Smith is only
25 years old, but he seems like he is 40. Smith
has delivered when given the workload, but has
also been hurt soon after. A healthy Kevin
Smith is ominous for the rest of the Lions
RBs to have a split-carry situation. You can’t
really invest heavily into Smith given the
injury history and the presence of either (or
both) of Jahvid Best and Leshoure.
Jahvid Best graded
well in our statistical analysis coming out of
college, but had the obvious red-flag for
injury. Our computer liked him out of college,
and then hated him by mid-season of his rookie
year. Less maybe two great stat games by Best
over the past two seasons, he has been mostly a
terrible runner/stat compiler in the NFL. Now
add in the injury issues, and his ship is
sinking fast. We advised people to move off of
Best all 2010 and 2011, but especially after the
big Monday Night game last year, and hopefully
you cashed in. If not, there is almost no window
remaining to trade him for decent value. You
have to figure that Best will be involved in the
offense on a limited basis at best going forward
and could go down with a head injury at any
moment. If you still have Best, and you can get
some kind of value, I would do it. I would
definitely not go bottom-fishing after him
either. Unless he is being given away, you are
taking on a huge injury risk RB, surrounded by
several talented Lions RB as well. The 2012
outlook (even if he’s back) is not good at all.
The X-factor in all this is
Mikel Leshoure. I’m a buyer and a seller
on Leshoure. You want to give him away; I'll
take him. You are hot on wanting him; I'll deal
him to you. Leshoure is the only Lions RB that I
would want for Fantasy Football 2012, as our
computer felt Leshoure was close to an
elite-level RB. He is the best of all the Lions
RBs...he's physically big/strong, fast/agile,
and proven top-performer in college. You have
the coming-off injury (and weed) risk, but his
injury was early last year and should be OK this
season (in theory).
If you wade through all the
Lions RBs, the list seems daunting. However, if
you figure that J.Best will be shelved/limited
and Harrison/Keiland/Bell are all either gone or
in the background – it all comes down to
Leshoure vs. Smith. After all the injuries, and
the way Smith was mostly ignored by the NFL last
year, I would take Leshoure to win that “fight”
over Smith. It’s certainly not a sure thing, so
caution on what you invest into Leshoure. If I
have Leshoure, I hold him. If I can get Leshoure
cheap, I do it. If someone loves Leshoure and
wants to overpay for him, I’ll let him go.
RB situations/workloads are
becoming too flighty and unpredictable in the
NFL to fall in love with an unknown like
Leshoure (unknown off his injury). He’s a smart
“lottery ticket” pick-up right now while his
value is down and Lions roster is congested.
*You might enjoy are 2011 pre-draft article on
Leshoure:
NFL Draft 2011: Statistical Analysis of RB Mikel
Leshoure
WRs not named Calvin
Johnson…
If you subscribe to the
theory that Calvin is "so good," that the
coverage on him will be so intense, that some
other Lions WR will naturally be a huge
beneficiary….what happened to that theory last
year? Calvin is no secret, and he couldn’t have
had a better year (2011)…yet the rest of the
Lions receiving options weren’t that spectacular
or consistent for Fantasy Football purposes.
There is no reason to believe that it won’t
happen again in 2012 with the current roster
situation an same offenses/coaching.
Nate Burleson is NFL
solid, but disappeared in stretches and was
underwhelming in Fantasy output in total.
Titus Young looked
great in spots, far better than we suspected
coming out of college…but our computer analysis
screams “injury-risk,” and he was sometimes
shelved with nagging injuries in 2011. We like
Young on the cheap, but nothing to invest heavy
in. I would mostly avoid making any effort with
Young, as we think a career of missing games and
halves, etc. is going to be the norm. He might
have some nice stretches, but there are plenty
of other similar WRs to gamble with that don’t
have quite the small-framed/injury risk Young
does.
Our computer liked
Terrence Toliver as a sleeper in 2011 NFL
Draft, and he went undrafted. Undrafted, then
cut by the Texans, and is now sitting behind
Calvin…the reality is that this cheap 2011
“lottery ticket” WR is likely headed for the
trash can. Keep an eye out if Calvin goes down,
but likely there is no future Fantasy Football
pay-day here.
The TE split…
Brandon Pettigrew is
a nice-sized target, and a great red-zone
option, but Tony Scheffler is a superior
overall passing-game option as a TE. The
combination of their skills/usefulness
neutralizes both for a big Fantasy Football
upside season (unless one of the other goes
down). Pettigrew is preferred because he is a
more every down TE for Detroit, but just like
the Lions WRs – Pettigrew should have been a
monster in 2011 with all the defensive
concentration on Calvin, but he was sporadic
last year. There is no reason to see differently
for 2012.
The # 1 Fantasy
Football team-defense in 2012…?
Ndamukong Suh,
Nick Fairley, and Cliff Avril barely
played together due to injuries and suspension.
On paper, the front-seven combination for
Detroit could be devastating if paired with a
major upgrade at CB. Not only could the
Lions-defense be the #1 projected team-defense
for traditional Fantasy Football in 2012 (based
on talent plus schedule), but their defense will
also have a huge impact upon their
opponents/opposing QBs for Fantasy Football.
Facing the Lions-Defense in 2012 may be a “sit”
for your “good” QB when they face them this
season (a possible sit for Vick, Ryan, Schaub
and Luck?).
The Lions play a lot of
rookie/flimsy/erratic QBs in 2012 – Gabbert,
Alex Smith, Locker, Kolb, Vick, Luck and
Flynn all sit on the Lions non-conference
schedule. Four games with Cutler and
Ponder in conference are potentially pretty
sweet too. The Lions have some of the pieces in
place for a great NFL defense, and showed that
in flashes last year. If they were to add a
lock-down CB, it may all fall into place. We
think we know of a certain next-Darrelle
Revis type that will be available in the
2012 NFL Draft when the Lions pick at #23, if
they get him, it could be “game on.” To see who
that CB is, you have to check it out
www.collegefootballmetrics.com (and it’s not
Dre Kirkpatrick, Janoris Jenkins or
Morris Claiborne…)
Select a position
from the tabs below
to see stats and scouting information for that respective
position.
