*Part of our on-going
2012 series of a team-by-team review of 2011,
and our look ahead to 2012. Designed more for
Dynasty League players, but may come in handy as
early homework for traditional Fantasy Football
players.
The problem with the
getting overly excited about the Bengals
prospects in any given year, is that they play
in the AFC North. We almost have to begin every
season thinking -- the Bengals will have four
tough game/losses built-in with BAL-PIT, and if
they split with CLE…then a (1-5) or (2-4) record
is automatically embedded into every preseason
prediction (in theory). The AFC North issue,
leaves the Bengals having to win 7-8 of their
other 10 games to be playoff relevant. This past
season, Cincinnati went (9-0) against
non-playoff teams…and (0-8) against playoffs
teams (including a 1st-Round playoff loss to
HOU), and an obvious (0-4) with PIT-BAL.
The AFC North problem
(despite game wins or losses), bleeds into the
Fantasy Football aspect of Bengals offensive
player outlooks. In a 12-13 week Fantasy
Football regular season, it's possible that 20%+
of the Fantasy regular season could be chewed up
facing the Ravens and Steelers defense…not good
for Fantasy output typically. There have been
occasional "exceptions to rule" seasons for
Cincy, but the smart money would always be that
the Bengals are a collective
lesser-talent/lesser-franchise compared to
Baltimore and Pittsburgh in any given season…we
feel 2012 will be no different.
I know it is very chic to
say that Andy Dalton and A.J. Green
will lead the Bengals into the new millennium.
We are being classically conditioned to think
that with a perpetual media drumbeat. No
different than years ago saying that Carson
Palmer and Chad Johnson will turn
around the Bengals franchise’s fortunes. The
Bengals went (46-51) with Carson Palmer
as a starter from 2004-10, including (0-2) in
the playoffs in seven years. The Bengals made
the playoffs in Palmer’s 2nd-season (2005),
returning again 4 seasons later in 2010. It's
not a horrible era, but nothing memorable
either…and probably an underachievement when
looking back through the lens of time.
Will top free agents really
flock to the worst run franchise in the sport
(not just opinion, it was voted upon last year)?
Will Cincinnati be able add, and
maintain/sustain top weapons on a consistent
basis...we probably all know the answer to that
one...
We have always been pro-Andy
Dalton, but our fear is that this is the
same ole’ Bengals franchise…and if Andy
Dalton has the potential to be an "A+" QB,
it may never come to pass as a member of the
Cincinnati Bengals. If Dalton reaches a "B+"
level status, and the Ravens and Steelers
continue to dominate the NFL landscape…it’s
going to be a rocky road for Dalton to produce
big Fantasy Football output consistently, which
thus brings into question the Fantasy Football
high-output potential for the surrounding cast
in that same light.
Andy Dalton
We were pro-Dalton before
it was popular to do so pre-NFL Draft. We were a
vigorous defender in the preseason when national
media made fun of his performance against the
Jets, and called him the worst NFL starting QB
going into 2011. In the right situation, we
think Dalton could push to a “near” elite QB
status in the long-term, like a Tony Romo
or Eli Manning. Our fear is that he will
be mired into a Fantasy Football mediocrity,
somewhere between the 10th and 15th best Fantasy
Football QB in any given year…a virtual “no
man’s land” for Dynasty/Fantasy owners.
Dalton showed enough pocket
presence and game management, that I would never
give Dalton away or bet heavily against him. I
also would not overpay for (or overvalue)
Dalton, as a Bengals QB. Although, we have had
much higher scouting grades on Dalton, I might
rather have a Matt Ryan in Dynasty
leagues going forward for the next few
years...given Ryan’s surroundings (weapons,
coaches, dome/turf, and conference/schedule).
A.J. Green
We’ve beaten this one to
death, but one more time…we think Green is good,
just not a difference making WR. Green is a not
on the level with the true elites -- Fitzgerald,
Nicks, Calvin, Andre type WRs…or even in
Julio Jones’s class (to us). Just as the
Bengals/Dalton have to perpetually face BAL-PIT,
so will Green. Toss in the possibility that
Cleveland may have the best pass-defense in the
conference, and it could be six very brutal
games built in per year for Green.
Green against the AFC North
in 2011 (5 games, missed a BAL game) = 2.6
receptions, 60.0 yards, 0.6 TDs per game.
Consider one of his TDs was against Cleveland on
opening day when a coverage breakdown allowed
Green to have no DB over him, leading to his
only catch in the game...an uncontested 41-yard
TD.
We have said several
different times the past few weeks...you should
be dealing A.J. Green now, at the apex of
his Dynasty League Fantasy Football value. On a
1-10 valuation scale, Green is sitting as a 9-10
value in most Dynasty League owner’s minds…but
to us, Green is a 6-7 value at best. I’ve beat
the drum on this all 2011...I think we are
seeing Mike Williams/TB circa-2010 here
with Green. Much like Williams/TB, Green’s value
resides in his TD productivity. Early in 2011,
against the easier part of the Bengals schedule,
Green had 5 TDs in first eight games. In his
last nine games (including playoffs), Green had
just 2 TDs. Those with Green in Dynasty Leagues,
you are holding a hot “internet stock” at its
peak value…it would be a smart,
franchise-changing decision to move him at the
“high.”
Cedric Benson and
Bernard Scott
It would seem logical for
the Bengals to let Benson go, and move on to
other cheaper/just as effective options…if
that's logical, then it definitely means that
the Bengals will re-sign the under-productive
Benson for another. At the start of the 2012
season, Benson will be 29 years and 9 months
old...nearing ancient in RB terms. Benson has
had back-to-back seasons with under 4.0 yards
per carry, and has averaged less than a
half-a-TD per game in the last couple years
combined as well. Benson is solid at best, but
any decent RB who received the carries that
Benson does, would have easily put up similar
numbers. What the Bengals affinity for Benson
is, I have no idea.
There are rumbling that
Benson will be let go, and if so…Benson has a
rapidly declining Fantasy Football value, as the
Bengals have breathed life into Benson with a
heavy workload; a workload he will not likely
see anywhere else. A Benson release does not
necessarily equate to a Bernard Scott
emergence...although we'd love it to. We have
always preferred Scott to Benson in our scouting
models, but the Bengals have never agreed with
that. Scott had a very respectable 76 yards on
22 carries against a very stout Seattle
run-defense in Week-8 (Benson suspended), and
his reward for that workhorse game...was 6
carries in his next game, and 6.8 carries per
game in his next eight games (ignoring Week-17).
The Bengals have been
reluctant to turn over things to Scott, so even
if Benson is gonzo…the Bengals will likely bring
in a hopeful front-line RB via draft or free
agency. If all the Bengals do is keep Benson,
and do not draft/sign an RB of interest…Bernard
Scott’s Fantasy Football value rises heavily
in our books. With Benson approaching 30 years
old, it’s wise to bet against his ability to
play a full-season...and rather bet that he
under-performs worse than the past two seasons,
and then Scott knifes his way in there as the
main ball carrier.
Jerome Simpson
Our computer
scouting on Simpson has been very good, but the
one thing we cannot quantify is figuring out
which NFL players will have several pounds of
marijuana in their dwellings. My guess is
Simpson will miss half, or the entire 2012
season with a suspension. If not, Simpson is an
unrestricted free agent…and probably only has
one home, with the desperate teams who tend to
tolerate off-field antics…so either he’s back
with the Bengals, or possibly he becomes a
Jaguar.
Simpson can be
really good, and we think at their peak
performances…he’s as good/better than A.J.
Green. However, Simpson acted erratic on the
field this season, and his output was
inconsistent…this is one WR we regretfully walk
away from, until we see a definitive change.
There are too many other intriguing WRs in the
world of Fantasy Football, to waste time messing
with Simpson right now.
Jermaine Gresham
If
Gresham was going to be a superstar NFL TE, this
would have been the perfect breakout season. A
2011 season with a solid/emerging rookie QB, and
really no dependable weapons outside of A.J.
Green. By default of the extra coverage
afforded to Green, Gresham should have had much
greater statistical output. Gresham had a
steady/mediocre output all year, and was solid,
but not spectacular…a respectable amount of TDs,
but little else. In pre-NFL Draft computer
study, we saw Gresham as a nice/useful NFL TE,
but too slow/non-agile in his physical profiles
from the NFL Combine compared historically to
become a breakout NFL star…and so far that’s
been true to form.
Quick Notes
-
If you like
Andy Dalton’s ability to control the
tempo of a game, do not be shocked if in
2012 Dalton turns away from over-reliance on
A.J. Green…and more turns his primary
attention to Ryan Whalen as his
Wes Welker-lite type WR. Whalen is a
taller, thicker, quicker version of
Jordan Shipley. Both Whalen and Shipley
are solid WRs, whichever one emerges as a
2012 starter, could have a very nice 2012
PPR season under-the-radar.
-
Assuming
Jerome Simpson is gone in 2012, or
otherwise disposed…Vidal Hazleton and
Armon Binns are intriguing low-budget
options as younger/bigger UDFA WRs to try to
fill the gap. We like Binns more, and see a
possibility for him to be a solid NFL
WR…with a chance to be a very good NFL WR.
It depends upon how much he hits the weight
room…Binns is 6’3, but struggles to stay
over 210 pounds, a proto-typical
skinny/small-framed tall WR (which is an
injury risk). Keep an eye on Binns for a
long-shot play for Fantasy Football down the
road.
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