*Part of our on-going
2012 series of a team-by-team review of 2011,
and our look ahead to 2012. Designed more for
Dynasty League players, but may come in handy as
early homework for traditional Fantasy Football
players.
The Bears were a "hot" team
through Week-11 this past season. After 10
games, the Bears sported a (7-3) record, and
seemed to have a clear path to the playoffs. All
that enthusiasm flipped as Jay Cutler was
lost for the season with an injury. After an
attempt by many to convince the public that the
Bears would be OK with Caleb Hanie,
5-straight losses later ended the Bears 2011
post-season hopes.
There are a lot of positive
feelings about the Bears 2011, that gives much
hope for 2012...but as we look at their current
personnel, we think the Bears are stuck in a
football purgatory. The Bears are not bad enough
to "break up" and rebuild, nor are they good
enough to threaten the NFL elite teams. The
Bears are an 7-8-9 win type of team at best in
2012...capable of a run, but not likely to go
all the way.
If the Bears were honest,
they should break up this team now...while the
aging players like Julius Peppers, etc.
still have some decent "tread left on the tire."
If the Bears don't take the next step in 2012 or
2013, and they stay "pat"...they will be in a
near nightmare in as early as 2013 or for sure
in 2014. The 2014 outlook would reveal the
potential for the bears to have a bunch of
past-prime, 33-34+ year old defensive players,
and no franchise QB. If the Bears follow recent
history, they will add attempted short-term
stop-gap fixes in 2012 (that won't work)...and
this current window of decent defensive
personnel will close in about two seasons or
less, leaving the franchise in shambles.
Sorry, for the "Christmas
cheer" for Bears fans...in your heart, you know
I'm right. However, the sugar-plum dreams of the
(7-3) start in 2011 are going to dance around,
and potentially con Bears fans into "hope" for
2012...and if they fall short (again), the
franchise is in real trouble in 2013-14 when
looking at the ages of key players. Especially
looking at the age gaps in the AFC North of GB
and DET vs. CHI.
The Bears sit with another
key "purgatory" issue...Jay Cutler is not
a bad enough QB to cut, not coveted enough to
pull of a major trade, but not good enough to
take the Bears to the promise land. It does not
help Cutler, that the Bears have the worst WR
depth chart outside of Jacksonville, FL. Matt
Forte is all the Bears really have on offense.
The best offensive move the
Bears have made so far is jettisoning the
incredibly overrated Mike Martz. The 2012
Fantasy Football ramifications of the new
Offensive Coordinator (Mike Tice) will be hard
to decipher until we see what WRs the Bears
bring in.
Quick, name all the
offensive coordinators who have ever mattered...
Offensive Coordinators, in
my opinion, do more harm then good...handcuffing
talent with over-coaching (how'd boy-genius
Josh McDaniel do with Sam Bradford
this year? Just one of a million recent
examples). Amazingly, the "best" O-Cs happen to
work with the greatest QBs in the history of the
game...and the O-Cs normally flop when moving
on, away from the great QB that "made" them (Charlie
Weis is an exception). So, I wouldn't hold
my breath that Mike Tice possesses some
magic up his sleeve...
The Bears will obviously
have to upgrade their WRs...and a nice "big-WR"
paired with Cutler may be a great Fantasy
Football play for that WR in 2012. With Martz
gone, Greg Olsen would have been "sweet"
in 2012...but, currently there is a void of a
play-maker on the Bears TE depth chart. We
cannot really project the 2012 Bears offensive
Fantasy Football scenario until the offensive
overhaul/upgrade of 2012 is complete (via trade,
draft, free agency), but let's look at what we
do know (maybe)...
Jay Cutler
Jay Cutler has
played 73 games in the past 5 years...five years
in which he began the season as his teams
starting QB. In those past five seasons, Cutler
has thrown for 108 TDs with 81 INTs. In those
past five years, Cutler has gotten progressively
worse in general accuracy...five straight
seasons of declining Completion Percentages,
from 63.6% in 2007 to a troubling 58.0% in 2011.
At his best, Jay Cutler is a good NFL
QB...but mostly he is mediocre, and mostly a
non-factor for Fantasy Football.
It always an excuse...poor
WRs (ask Tom Brady about that), Offensive
Coordinator woes, etc., etc. The cold truth is,
Cutler is just an "OK" NFL QB, and for Fantasy
Football...that won't do. What's the argument
for why he will be pertinent in 2012? If there
was a case, why would I believe it now? I've
heard it for years.
The 2012 schedule won't
help a ton either...with some difficult
non-divisional matchups with San Fran, Houston,
and oncoming Seattle and Arizona go along with
the two matchups with both Green Bay and Detroit
each. Cutler is a BYE week, and/or emergency QB
at best for Fantasy Football...nothing more, and
nothing less.
Matt Forte, Marion
Barber and Kahlil Bell
Matt Forte is likely
a Bears RB again in 2012, via new contract or
franchise tag. We absolutely love Matt Forte;
he's one of the highest rated RBs we've studied
in our computer scouting models coming out of
college...but Marion Barber stealing
short TD runs is a slight issue for Fantasy
Football purposes. Forte is quite possibly one
of the three best RBs in the NFL over the last 4
seasons...but the Bears O-Line, and his lack of
rushing TDs has held him back a bit for Fantasy
Football elite output. Forte had just 4 TDs in
2011 and in 2009 (9 in 2010). Barber issue
aside, the main Dynasty League issue on Forte is
age/mileage.
Forte will be 27.9 years
old to start this season...and should have about
another solid two seasons left before a
predictive decline sets in. Forte is probably a
bad NFL investment long term due to age, but two
years of prime output remaining at best also
cuts into his long term Dynasty League value as
well...assuming no more injuries, etc. in those
two seasons. If you can flip Forte for a younger
top-line RB, plus more goodies...you have to
explore it. Similar to the NFL, a Dynasty
Fantasy Football league has the same
parallel...individual RBs are becoming less
important due to tandem-RB strategies, injury
issues, and a general overall RB supply &
demand. I wouldn't get married to Forte (as much
as we love him), if a great deal presented
itself...even in a PPR league.
Kahlil Bell provided
a few exciting moments late, but we don't see a
sneaky "sleeper" here. Our college scouting
models were not too hot on the 2009 undrafted
free agent out of UCLA, and he has done little
in three seasons to disprove that. Bell is a
2012 restricted free agent...and not likely on
the move. If I owned him from a late pickup in a
Dynasty League in 2011, I would try to sell him
to my league's Forte owner; and move on.
The Terrible Bears
WRs
Where do we begin? I'm not
sure what is a worse decision...bringing in, and
starting, Roy Williams in 2011 -- or
giving a 4-year, $18MM contract ($9MM
guaranteed) to Earl Bennett? It's a good
thing they locked down Bennett, I'm not sure
where they will find another 5'11+, low-agility,
good-hands WR...who has 7 TDs in 51 career
games. I know, I know..."he and Cutler are best
friends, ya know!" I wish I could hear that
about 10 more times after each Bennett catch the
last two years. What has that "BFF" status
earned Bennett? Over the past 3 seasons with
Cutler, Bennett has averaged 3.1 receptions,
41.5 yards, 0.15 TDs per game. Wow, it's like
Montana-Rice all over again. Of course, Bennett
probably looks like Jerry Rice compared
to the Bears WRs depth chart of the past few
seasons. Bennett is solid, but probably cannot
start for most teams in the NFL...for the Bears
he is their "ace." I would deal away Bennett in
a heartbeat if anyone in my Dynasty league was
buying into the Cutler-Bennett-Vandy nonsense.
Johnny Knox was a
solid/OK WR, but at his smaller size...the risk
for injury was high. We pray for a full
recovery, but you really can't count on Knox for
anything Fantasy Football-wise in 2012.
The best WR on the Bears,
to us, was Dane Sanzenbacher. The
smaller/gritty undrafted free agent had 3 TDs in
his first 6 games as a Bears WR this season, but
then injury and non-Cutler caught up to him. We
liked some of Sanzenbacher's agility metrics in
our computer scouting models, but we were also
fearful of his smaller-frame/injury risk. He's
one to watch, but not to invest heavy on for
Fantasy Football purposes. A fully healthy 2012
season could lead to Sanzenbacher as a Wes
Welker-lite type of WR for Cutler...but that's
is a stretch, especially with Bennett in the way
too.
The top Bears WR for 2012,
likely does not reside on the roster at this
moment. Assumedly, the Bears will make a splash
for a Vincent Jackson type free agent WR.
We'll just have to wait and see who it is, but
Jackson going to CHI will drive Jackson's
Fantasy value sky-high...and probably,
rightfully so.
The Greg Olsen
blues...
The Bears had an elite
receiver in Greg Olsen, but let him go to
Carolina this offseason...another "genius" Bears
move of the past few years. Which is worse?
Letting Olsen go, signing Chester Taylor,
or bringing in Roy Williams...or hiring
Mike Martz. That's a tough one. The
Olsen-less Bears have no real TE threat in the
passing game, so expect a new name to be
acquired this off-season.
Aging-D
The Bears are quickly
getting "old." Julius Peppers will be
32.9 years old to start 2012, Brian Urlacher
will be 34.4 years old, Charles Tillman
31.7 years old and Lance Briggs nearly 32
years old . A collection of good, great
defensive players...all 30+. The window is short
for the Bears, and the NFC North offenses are
young and ramping up. If there was a pick for a
team-defense to plummet in 2012, from 2011...it
is the Bears.
Corey Graham is not
a star, but he is an unrestricted free agent
CB/ST that we like (not love). It would be a
small blow to lose him, keep an eye on whether a
smarter/crafty team plucks him away. It wouldn't
be devastating to the Bears, but it would be a
loss if Graham leaves.
Quick Notes
-
Armando
Allen was a late undrafted free agent
cut/re-sign, practice squad RB for the Bears
in 2011...and he got pressed into action
late in 2011. Our computer scouting models
see nothing here...a smaller, slower,
non-agile RB prospect. Not a future star by
any means.
-
The Bears
5th-Round 2011 draft pick, Nathan Enderle,
was one of the lowest rated QBs in our
computer models that we have ever
researched. When everything broke down for
the Bears, they could/would not turn to
Enderle....unlike a similar situation with
2011 5th-Round Texans draft pick T.J.
Yates. Another great personnel move by
the Bears...
Select a position
from the tabs below
to see stats and scouting information for that respective
position.
