*Part of our on-going
2012 series of a team-by-team review of 2011,
and our look ahead to 2012. Designed more for
Dynasty League players, but may come in handy as
early homework for traditional Fantasy Football
players.
The chic thing to say...is
that the Panthers are all set to be a team of
the future with Cam Newton at the helm.
However, because I am not completely sold on Cam
yet...I'm also not necessarily sold on the
Panthers future. The Panthers enter 2012 with
their only good/great WR approaching 33.5 years
old to start the upcoming season. I actually
think the Panthers are full of interesting
talent. We've always loved Jonathan Stewart,
we feel Greg Olsen is a
great/underutilized NFL TE, and we think 2011
NFL Draft pick Kealoha Pilares could be a
very good (possibly great) slot WR. Everything
for the Panthers/Fantasy Football hinges on Cam,
and how great (or not) of a passer he might be.
The 2012 Panthers offers
much fantasy football intrigue at several
positions, but let's start with taking a look at
Cam Newton...
Cam Newton
If we come off sounding
like we hate Cam Newton, that's not our
intention. Our problem is that we think that Cam
Newton has been elevated to such a lofty status
based on a couple of nice passing totals early
in 2011, plus all the wonderful running TDs and
single-play highlights...that all this hoopla
may be glossing over some potential issues with
Newton as a passer at the NFL-level.
Looking over his 2011 game
log, I see three performances that jump out to
me -- a match-up with the DB depleted Minnesota
Vikings, and two match ups against hapless Tampa
Bay. In those 3 games against flimsy
competition, Newton had 7 passing TDs and 0
INTs. In all of his other 12 games (we typically
ignore Week-17 games in our analysis...and we
are here) outside of those 3 "easy" games,
Newton threw for 13 TDs and 16 INTs. Newton beat
on the "weak sisters" and predictably struggled
(for a rookie) as a passer against the rest of
the field.
Newton struggled even
deeper against the better teams on the Carolina
2011 schedule. Against winning teams in 2011
(excluding Week-17) Cam posted 273.0 pass yards
per game (nice)...but also had a lowly 56.7%
completion percentage and 1.1 passing TDs per
game, with a troubling 1.9 INTs per game.
We all fell in love with
Cam's back-to-back 400+ yard passing games to
start the 2011 season, but it appeared that
defenses started to figure him out a bit after
that. From Week-5 on, Newton averaged just 227.9
yards passing per game with a 59.2% Comp Pct.
Cam is just a rookie, so we
shouldn't expect him to be an NFL elite in
Year-1. A closer look at his 2011 passing
metrics reveals some flaws...however, many
think, his 2011 was beyond awesome. Our only
point is, Cam's 2011 may not have been as
tremendous as you think. Which could also lead
to the same 2011 trap-door that many people fell
into with Josh Freeman's and Matt
Cassel's 2010 campaigns.
Cam was definitely better
in 2011, then our computer scouting models
suspected that he would be as a rookie. Our
computer models thought Cam would be
decent/solid long-term with potential red-flag
problems with decision-making and
turnovers...and we saw some of those tendencies
in 2011, but there was just as much to get
excited about for his 2011, as there was to
nitpick at. Mobility/running ability does not
weigh heavily into our computer scouting
formulas evaluating QBs as passers coming out of
college. For Fantasy Football purposes, if Cam
is going to run for 14 TDs per season...it won't
matter if his passing metrics are mediocre.
The issue could become if
team's cut-off Newton's running, and force him
into a box as a pure passer...if he struggles
getting to the next-level as a passer -- will
the tide/great media hype on Newton turn? At
various points during, and right after his
rookie season...everyone thought Vince Young
was the next passer/runner QB-Messiah too.
Highly mobile, highly
rushing-total productive QBs are worth their
weight in Fantasy Football gold, so Newton has
elite Fantasy value...perhaps one of the top-10
most valuable overall Fantasy Football players
(right now). There is no questioning his current
value. However, automatically assuming Cam
is/will be a great NFL passer could cause
problems if you invest heavy in a Greg Olsen
or a Kealoha Pilares based on that
assumption. We think there are some "passer"
concerns with Newton, but we are definitely in
the minority (or the only one) with that
opinion.
A question might be...is
Newton at his absolute peak Fantasy Football
value right this moment? Rookies often have
hysterical valuations...until the next new
"shiny thing" comes along, so would now be the
perfect time to call a "market top," and deal
Newton? Again, I'm in the minority that has
question on Cam as a passer...however, I don't
think he going to fall of the map as fast as
Vince Young did, but I do feel the
possibility exists. If I could get an Aaron
Rodgers in exchange in a package deal, I would
have to consider taking elite stability over a
potential "bubble" with Newton now. I wouldn't
give Newton away, I'd leverage him as a top-5
overall Fantasy player...but he is not
untouchable for me.
Nor, am I reaching to
acquire Newton. I'm willing to risk being wrong
on Cam, rather then crush my Dynasty League
franchise on a potentially "figured-out passer,"
who if his running TDs get cut-off (like Vick
this past season)...destroys my team in his
wake.
Steve Smith, Kealoha
Pilares, David Gettis
After a brilliant start to
the 2011 Fantasy Football season, Steve Smith
really tailed off in the 2nd-half. Smith
averaged just 3.9 receptions, 55.7 receiving
yards, and 0.3 TDs per game from Weeks 10-16
(again, ignoring Week-17). Smith was much better
than we had projected to begin 2011, but his 2nd
half production was more in line with what our
computers predicted for Smith. We are Steve
Smith fans...however, age has to be catching
up with Smith soon. Smith will be 33.4 years old
to start the 2012 campaign. As a Dynasty League
owner of Smith...you are lucky if Smith has one
solid season left in the tank. If you can get
decent trade value for Smith in this off-season,
I would jump all over it.
The Panthers WR that we are
really intrigued by, is 2011 NFL Draft pick
Kealoha Pilares out of Hawaii. Pilares was
7th among all kick-returners this season with a
25.7 yards per return average. He was also one
of the rare few kick-returners to have a return
TD, a 101-yard score against Detroit in Week-11.
We were surprised that Pilares did not get a
sniff of action as a WR this season, so our
confidence in him is slightly shaken…but our
computer scouting models show a tremendous
upside for Pilares. A stable Cam Newton,
and/or an injury to the aging Smith…and a
Pilares could burst onto the scene in 2012. For
more detail on why we feel this way about
Pilares, please consider our pre-2011 NFL draft
research article:
NFL Draft 2011 - WR Kealoha Pilares, the
Mega-Sleeper "Small WR" Prospect in the 2011 NFL
Draft - Fantasy Football 2011
Our computer scouting
models semi-like, not fully like...or love, 2010
Carolina draft pick WR David Gettis out
of Rice. Gettis was lost to an ACL tear in 2011.
Gettis would be an excellent red-zone target,
standing 6'3+ and possessing huge
hands...however, our computer scouting models
note a mediocre athleticism at best. Now, coming
off an ACL tear...Gettis is even more of a NFL
question mark prospect. Gettis is worth a cheap
look in a deeper Dynasty League, but we are not
overly excited by the possibilities...and then
you also have to have confidence in Cam as a
passer as well.
Jonathan Stewart and
DeAngelo Williams
We absolutely love
Jonathan Stewart, but we absolutely hate the
situation that he has perpetually been stuck in
with Carolina. Our computer models show that
Stewart is a high probability NFL elite RB, and
he has shown that "potential" several times upon
any Williams injury issues...but in the end,
Stewart typically winds up splitting carries
with Williams, and rendering himself mostly
irrelevant for Fantasy Football.
Stewart is an RB that I
would pursue on the cheap in a dynasty league.
Stewart is entering a contract year in 2012, and
is an unrestricted free agent in 2013…in theory;
Stewart should be primed for a great 2012
season. However, if he has another Fantasy
Football disappointment in 2012 due to
DeAngelo…Stewart will only be 26.5 years old in
2013, leaving a couple good, possibly great,
seasons should he windup as a primary ball
carrier for some NFL team. Stewart may be the
prize catch in the 2013 free agent class...if
you covet Stewart, now is the time to get a
better valuation. Be forewarned, it may be a
"buy and hold" investment...Stewart may not pay
you back until 2013...with a different NFL team.
Perhaps Stewart will
ultimately wind up as the primary ball carrier
for the Panthers, as Williams will be 29.5 years
old this 2012 season…and will be staring down
30.5 years old in 2013. RBs typically fade at
age 29+, and Williams has not been very durable
in the last few seasons. If I had to bet on one
Panthers RB or the other for the next few years,
my investment would be with Jonathan Stewart…especially
because he typically comes at a much cheaper
valuation to acquire.
Quick Notes
-- Our computer
scouting models have never liked Brandon
LaFell, and he did not do anything in 2011
to change that thought process. LaFell is a
backup NFL WR at best, not a potential star. We
do not feel he provides much of a threat to
Kealoha Pilares (if we are right about the
Pilares).
-- We absolutely love
Greg Olsen, but as Cam Newton's
passing metrics and totals declined…Olsen's
numbers began to fade as well. Olsen scored just
one TD in his last 6 games played, and just 2
TDs in his last 9 games. From Week-6 on, Olsen
averaged only 2.5 receptions, 30.0 yards, 0.2
TDs per game…with a flimsy 5.8 pass-targets per
game. Unless the Panthers add more firepower at
WR, and/or Newton takes a step forward as a
passer...Olsen is likely doomed to Fantasy
Football TE mediocrity. A bet on Olsen, is more
of a bet on Cam Newton (as a
passer)...and that's one gamble that we would
hesitate to make.
-- Jeremy Shockey
will likely be on the move as an
unrestricted free agent this season, and we
don't expect much more is left in the tank (for
Fantasy Football purposes) for the oft-injured
TE. Shockey will be 32 years old to begin the
2012 season.
Select a position
from the tabs below
to see stats and scouting information for that respective
position.
