*An on-going series of
putting college QBs through our mathematical
analysis. We don’t have all the needed data
until the 2012 NFL Combine results are
completely in (including most Wonderlic scores
leaked), but we can assume (neutral) some of it
and we have all the game performance/statistics.
See this link for
details on our College QB rating system --
Predicting the Unpredictable…Projecting a
College QB to the NFL with a Mathematical
Formula and
"Searching for the Next Aaron
Rodgers" -- an Update on the 2012 QB class, and
our "College QB Scouting Formula"...
I'm not exactly sure why Ryan Lindley has an
initial surge as one of the top-10 QBs in the 2012 draft class. Actually, strike
that...I know exactly why. Lindley "looks" like a prototypical NFL QB. Lindley
is 6'3+ and 230 +/- pounds. To watch Lindley on tape, we see a quick release and
decent velocity...everything that most people are looking for in a NFL QB
prospect. The problem is, that our computer analysis of his passing metrics
bears out a different story. Not a unique story, as time and time again we see
an endless stream of decent compilation/several year starters in the
WAC/Mountain West type conferences... who rack up great stats against the Wyoming's, UNLV's, etc.
Then, when it comes to more advanced opponents...a sudden plummet in
performance.
The backdrop on Lindley is a typical one among
the Mountain West conference quasi-NFL QB prospects. Lindley was a 4-year
starter, and had a (17-9) record in the last two seasons...along with two
no-name bowl appearances. I would love to have had a college football career
like Lindley...but my job is to analyze the prospects for the NFL Draft. From
what I see in our computer analysis, this is a pretty easy one to predict.
Ryan Lindley, Through the Lens of our QB
Scouting Algorithm
I could pretty much end the scouting story by
just looking at Lindley's career Completion Percentage. Lindley's Completion
Percentage in his four seasons (rounding) -- starting as a Freshman with 57%,
then 55%, then 58%, wrapping up with a dismal 53%...for a career tally of 55.5%
Comp Pct. "End of story," essentially. No future NFL elite QB had that weak of
an accuracy issue...especially with the Mountain West level of competition.
Lindley played 12 games this past season, and
in only two of those games did he achieve over 60%+ Comp Pct in any game (New
Mexico and Air Force). That's a serious red-flag historically. Lindley started
the season with a 55.6% Comp Pct game versus Cal Poly, followed by a 44.4%
performance against Army...not a great (nor even good) 2011 opening act against
that lower-level of competition, especially for a 4th-year starter.
By comparison,
Andrew Luck has had two games under 60%
completion percentage in the past 2 seasons/26
games. Robert Griffin III has not had an
60% Comp Pct game in his last 23 games...he was
under 60% in his first 3 career starts, and then
never again. In less-advanced college passing
eras, Brees, Brady, Manning, would run about
20-40% of their games played under 60% in their
final seasons (but all rolled up above 60%+ in
total). In this modern-day era, 70% Completion
Percentage is becoming like the old Roger
Bannister 4-minute mile...once an
aberration, but now everyone is doing it. Again,
Lindley went for 53.0% this season in the
Mountain West, in his 4th year starting.
Lindley did have his best two games against two
of the better teams on his 2011 schedule...against Boise State and
Louisiana-Lafayette (both losses), Lindley threw for 6 TDs/1 INT total with
381.5 yards per game. If we isolate the Boise State, Louisiana-Lafayette, and
Cal Poly games...in the remaining 10 games, Lindley threw for a red-flag level
12 TDs/9 INTs with just 218.7 yards per game against the likes of Colorado
State, Fresno State, New Mexico, etc.
Lindley has respectable output in our passer
metrics for passing-TD prowess, turnover avoidance, and ability to move the ball
yardage-wise. Those three passing metrics are OK/solid, but not good/great in
our historical comparison...but then
it is all wiped out by his extremely low accuracy/completion percentage issues.
The NFL QB that Ryan Lindley most
compares to statistically in college:
Former Georgia QB David Greene is almost an
identical match to Lindley in our computer models. There is always hope for a
Lindley match to Kyle Orton, and that would be a nice NFL career...but Orton is not
mistaken for an elite NFL QB; and that's what our system analysis is based
on/searching for. The grouping of QBs below shows similar matches in our system
based on physically bigger college QBs who had decent output in several metrics,
but crumbled with their low-accuracy issues.
Adjusted
College Performance Profiles:
|
Metrics P-Score |
QB |
Yr |
College |
H |
W |
adj Comp Pct |
adj Yds per Comp |
adj Pass per TD |
adj Pass Per INT |
x |
Yds per game 35 Att |
TDs per game 35 Att |
INTs per game 35 Att |
|
0.394 |
Lindley, Ryan |
2012 |
San Diego St |
75.5 |
230 |
52.1% |
13.2 |
18.8 |
43.8 |
|
241.1 |
1.9 |
0.8 |
|
0.321 |
Greene, David |
2005 |
Georgia |
75.5 |
226 |
56.3% |
12.5 |
16.3 |
39.9 |
|
245.8 |
2.1 |
0.9 |
|
0.580 |
Johnson, Jerrod |
2011 |
Texas A&M |
77.1 |
251 |
57.5% |
12.3 |
16.9 |
39.4 |
|
246.6 |
2.1 |
0.9 |
|
0.657 |
Orton, Kyle |
2005 |
Purdue |
76.0 |
233 |
51.6% |
13.4 |
17.9 |
58.5 |
|
242.2 |
2.0 |
0.6 |
*the "adj" above, means "adjusted' output in
our system...based on strength of opponent
Ryan Lindley
Overall Metrics Scouting Score = 0.394 (F+ grade level prospect)
*A score of 0.850+ is where we see a
stronger correlation of QBs going on to become NFL great/elite; a score of
1.000+ is rarefied air in our system
2012 NFL Draft outlook...
Lindley is currently projected to be selected
between the 3rd-5th round of the 2012 NFL Draft. One nationally respected draft
ranking that I am looking at right now has Kellen Moore, Chandler Harnish,
Case
Keenum and Russell Wilson as the next four QBs behind Lindley...I would take any
one of those four ahead of Lindley in a heartbeat. Lindley has the NFL prototype
QB physique at 6'3-6'4 and 230+ pounds, and he definitely has "body-type" over
Moore, Harnish, Keenum and Wilson...but he has nowhere near the college
passer-resume' that any of those four QBs has.
I could see Lindley as a possible surge into
the 3rd-Round of the 2012 NFL Draft based upon a great workout at the right
time, and hype over his "quicker release," and all of that could "push" him as a
mid-draft selection. If the inaccuracy issues step forward in Lindley's pre-draft
workouts, then a fade to a 5th-7th round draft pick is more likely. Lindley is
developmental at best in our books, and we'd pass on him for the 2012 NFL Draft
in favor of several other intriguing/flawed QB prospects.
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