*An on-going series of
putting college QBs through our mathematical
analysis. We don’t have all the needed data
until the 2012 NFL Combine results are
completely in (including most Wonderlic scores
leaked), but we can assume (neutral) some of it
and we have all the game performance/statistics.
See this link for
details on our College QB rating system --
Predicting the Unpredictable…Projecting a
College QB to the NFL with a Mathematical
Formula and
"Searching for the Next Aaron
Rodgers" -- an Update on the 2012 QB class, and
our "College QB Scouting Formula"...
I know that you are as
excited as I am for the huge football game
upcoming on Sunday night (1/8/2012)…a definite
“plan your life around” type of football game.
Some of the odd-ball among us thinks that I am
talking about the Steelers vs. Tim Tebow...nay,
how could you be so foolish? The rest of us
“normal people” will be using that AFC playoff
game as a nice appetizer for the monster
match-up that night at the GoDaddy.com
Bowl….featuring two storied college programs --
Arkansas State and Northern Illinois.
Sarcasm aside, suddenly
there is a reason that I have a piqued interest
in the GoDaddy.com Bowl. In doing some of the
preliminary review of our college QB scouting
formulas/output for the 2012 NFL Draft, I was
drawn to a QB that I have never heard of (keep
in mind, I rarely watch college football. I let
our Moneyball type formulas lead me to
suspects/prospects at season's end…then I watch
game tape from there). The QB that caught my eye
(on paper) early on in my review process...is
Northern Illinois QB Chandler Harnish.
Based on preliminary data,
Harnish is an average NFL QB prospect in our
computer scouting analysis. Not likely a future
elite QB, but there are a few things that have
drawn our attention to him. Harnish has enough
interesting metrics in a few of our hot-button
categories, that I will be using valuable DVIR
space for the GoDaddy.com Bowl…I may even watch
some of the game live (perish the thought).
For those not already
familiar...I think you will be surprised by the
Harnish’s college career, and statistical
tallies. We will discuss Harnish's college story
first, then take a deeper-dive into our system
analysis on what excites us...and also probably
why he will not make it as high-level QB in the
NFL.
The Storybook 2010
Season, and the Dominant 2011 Season…and Career
Harnish was a
decent/respectable (statistically) starting QB
in his Freshman and Sophomore seasons at
Northern Illinois…compiling a (6-11) record over
his first two seasons. Heading into his Junior
season, his college career took an
unusual/temporary detour...
Coming off of a
knee-injury…Harnish lost a starting QB
competition in camp in 2010, and was demoted to
a second-teamer. Two games into the 2010
season, Harnish got his job back and Northern
Illinois won their next 9 games in a row...10
wins out of the final 11 games to finish the
season. Ultimately, Harnish earned 1st-team
all MAC recognition…and was the MVP of the 2010
Humanitarian Bowl, leading his team past Fresno
State by passing for 300 yards and 1 TD/0 INT,
while also adding 72 yards rushing with 2 TD
runs.
Harnish followed that 2010
fairy tale-esque season by winning the 2011 MAC
MVP – throwing for 2,942 yards and 26 TD/5 INT,
but also rushing for 1,382 yards and an
additional 11 TDs. Harnish has accounted for
332.6 yards per game and 2.8 TDs per game in
2011 to-date, with one more game to go.
Harnish has rushed for 100+
yards in a game, six times so far in 2011.
Harnish has not just run for success, but has
also been a fairly accurate passer with a 62.9%
Comp Pct this season (62.3% career Comp Pct).
For his career (with one
game to go), Harnish has totaled 11,656 yards
and 90 TDs in four seasons/44 games as a starter
for Northern Illinois. In the past three seasons
(skipping past his Freshman campaign), Harnish
has thrown for 58 TDs and only 16 INTs (5.3 INTs
per season, in his last three years, with a high
of 6 INTs as a sophomore).
Harnish, Through the
Lens of our QB Scouting Algorithm…
Harnish is not the first QB
to have a monster college run/pass career. If
big college stats in mid-major conferences
directly correlated to NFL stardom…no NFL team
would be without their own star QB. The fact is,
that most big-stat, successful mid-major QBs
wind up as quasi-NFL-draftnik “sleepers”…then
the next time we hear from them is when we
mistakenly turn on an Arena League game. The
same fate may await Harnish…however, there are
some signs with Harnish that he may be a little
different than your typical “soon to be
forgotten” dual-threat, mid-major QB.
Harnish has several “yes,
but…” type of metrics/attributes in our system
analysis. On one hand, Harnish has shown more of
a red-flag level inaccuracy against the tougher
competition that he has faced. Against the four
bowl teams that he has faced this season
(Wisconsin, W. Mich, Toledo, Ohio), Harnish
threw for just 220.5 passing yards per game, and
a 59.2% Comp Pct…not that exciting. "Yes,
but"…he also threw for 12 TDs and just 1 INT in
those four games. Harnish is a very odd
dichotomy of a statistical lean towards overall
passing inaccuracy, but on the other hand he
also rarely throws an interception...our system
shows that passing inaccuracy and interceptions
tend to go hand-in-hand; not with Harnish
Harnish has had six
matchups with Big-10 teams in his 4-year career
(Wisc 2x, Illinois, Minn 2x, and Purdue)…a
bigger step up in competition for Northern
Illinois. In those six games, Harnish has
averaged – 62.9% Comp Pct, with a more muted
187.8 yards passing per game, with 5 TDs and 1
INT (and a 2-4 record). Harnish did not crumble
against Big-10 teams, but his passing TD and
yardage totals dropped precipitously from his
norms. Harnish has shown an excellent
scrambling/running ability…but against the
bigger schools, he was mostly locked down
running the ball. In 2011, he had a 2-year low
of 4 carries for -2 yards in a 49-7 drubbing at
the hands of Wisconsin.
We won’t know for sure
about Harnish’s physical attributes until the
2012 NFL Combine, but it would appear that he is
under 6’2” tall, and 220 +/- pounds. The height
is an issue in our mathematical scouting
formulas, and it’s going to be an issue for NFL
scouts.
Harnish has the profile of
an A-typical, mobile college QB. However, his
advanced passing metrics in our system is at the
high/highest end for the “usual suspects” among
mobile college QBs.
The NFL QB
that Chandler Harnish most compares to statistically in college...
|
QB |
Yr |
College |
H |
W |
adj Comp Pct |
Adj Yds per Comp |
adj Pass per TD |
adj Pass Per INT |
x |
Yds per game 35 Att |
TDs per game 35 Att |
INTs per game 35 Att |
|
Harnish, Chandler |
2012 |
No Illinois |
73.5 |
220 |
58.3% |
13.8 |
13.3 |
170.4 |
|
281.6 |
2.6 |
0.2 |
|
Fitzpatrick, Ryan |
2005 |
Harvard |
74.3 |
232 |
56.4% |
13.2 |
36.2 |
60.3 |
|
260.7 |
1.0 |
0.6 |
|
Locker, Jake |
2011 |
Washington |
74.5 |
235 |
50.4% |
11.7 |
30.4 |
28.8 |
|
206.3 |
1.2 |
1.2 |
|
Croyle, Brody |
2006 |
Alabama |
74.5 |
205 |
54.0% |
12.4 |
25.0 |
231.3 |
|
233.9 |
1.4 |
0.2 |
Harnish is a very hard QB
to profile, when comparing him within our
college QB database, because Harnish is three
main things in our system analysis: (1)
above-average in running/mobility (2) lower
Completion Percentage, more inaccurate in
college (3) despite being "inaccurate," he is a
savvy passer with low INTs with more impressive
yardage and TD totals than your typical
quick-to-run/lower pass-attempt/semi-inaccurate
type college QB.
To match Harnish with prior
college QBs, we're going to go with a hybrid of
three QBs...Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jake Locker,
and Brody Croyle. Ryan Fitzpatrick
is perhaps the closest match in the system. Both
are mobile/athletic, but not a Michael
Vick/Tim Tebow type of a
runner...Harnish/Fitzpatrick are more
above-average mobile QBs, the kind of mobile
that you look at a box score following a game
that you watched, and you go, "wow...Fitzpatrick
had 55 yards rushing in that game?" Pre-2011,
Fitzpatrick used to be more known as "dangerous"
with his legs...he has since toned that down as
of late.
Fitzpatrick also showed a
tendency to throw for higher yards per game, and
had a lower propensity for the turnovers in our
system analysis...like Harnish. However, Harnish
blew Fitzpatrick (and the rest of them listed
here) away in passing TD metrics. Fitzpatrick
also scored tremendously on the Wonderlic test,
and from watching interviews with Harnish...we
suspect he will be fine on the Wonderlic (Croyle
and Locker, not so good on the Wonderlic). It's
hard to quantify, and it's in the eye of the
beholder...but Harnish appears to be gutsy/a
leader...which is more Fitzpatrick like.
All three of the QBs are
also smaller in height, with Harnish projecting
to be the smallest among them.
What strikes me about
watching Harnish on tape is...he visually
reminds me a lot of Jake Locker. Both
smaller in height, with better than average
mobility. They are both more rollout type
passers...with a tendency (to me) toward
one-read passes/pre-determined throws from the
pocket. I feel that if Jake Locker had
gone to Northern Illinois, he would have done
what Harnish did...and vice-versa, had Harnish
gone to Washington...he would have put up
similar stats to Locker. You might think that is
a compliment, and in a way it is, but our system
recognizes Locker as a likely bust at the NFL
level due to his high-level inaccuracies as a
passer. Push comes to shove, our computer
scouting system is more interested in Harnish
than Locker, as an NFL prospect...we see more
mobility at this point (which as we are learning
in the NFL, can help offset minor accuracy
issues). We also see a greater statistical
trend/success for throwing TDs by Harnish, and
less of a trend for turning the ball over like
our system pegs Locker with.
Chandler
Harnish
Overall
Metrics Scouting Score = 0.531 (D+ prospect
grade)
*A score of 0.850+ is where we see a stronger
correlation of QBs going onto be elite, a score
of 1.000+ is "rarefied air."
2012 NFL Draft Outlook...
We compared Harnish to Locker above, but sadly
for Harnish...Locker is a top-10 NFL pick and
multi-millionaire, and Harnish will probably
wind up as a 5th-Round Draft pick at best, or
closer probably to an Undrafted Free Agent. That
outlook could change a bit based on his 2012 NFL
Combine measureables...another inch+ taller, and
then Harnish might be a 3-4-5th Round Draft
pick. If Harnish's speed/agility are at a higher
level at the 2012 NFL Combine...he may get a
Julian Edelman-type of look from a team
(like the New England Patriots) looking for
smart/savvy, potentially multi-dimensional
player.
We are intrigued with Harnish. Our historical
comparisons show too many red-flags on Harnish
for any type of major enthusiasm, yet there are
some green-flags that draw our attention. The
summary of our Harnish research would cause us
to be inclined to select him later in the NFL
Draft as a gamble for a team that has an
established QB, and for sure a prospect to take
a look at as an undrafted free agent. Our
interest would be further advanced if his
speed/agility/strength measurements at the 2012
NFL Combine come out such as warranting a bonus
look at him as a WR or CB, or a punt returner.
*We will update the Harnish info when the NFL
Combine/Pro-Day results are in.
Harnish is a prospect to watch for more data on,
but probably not one to invest heavily in. Watch
the GoDaddy.com Bowl Sunday night, and see what
you think...
Select a position
from the tabs below
to see stats and scouting information for that respective
position.
